US Forecast: October 29, 2010
Forecast Period

2010:4--2020:4 (41 quarters)

Data

The forecast is based on the national income and product accounts (NIPA) data that were released on October 29, 2010.

The Latest Version of the US Model

For purposes of this forecast the US model has been reestimated through 2010:2. These estimates and the complete specification of the model are presented in Appendix A: The US Model: October 29, 2010, which is an update of Appendix A in Fair (2004).

Beginning with the forecast dated October 31, 2005, a few specification changes have been made to the model from the version in Fair (2004). These are explained in Changes to the US Model Since 2004.

Baseline Assumptions Behind the Forecast

The policy assumptions behind the forecast are in two parts. The first part ignores the stimulus bill. It produces what will be called "baseline" assumptions. The second part then adds the stimulus measures to the baseline assumptions. Consider first the baseline assumptions. They are as follows. The table below gives the growth rates that were assumed for the key exogenous variables in the model along with the actual growth rates between 1989:4 and 2007:4 (before the stimulus measures in 2008 and 2009).

              Growth Rates (annual rates)

           Baseline
           Forecast              Actual     
          Assumptions         2007:4-1989:4  

TRGHQ         3.0                  3.9       
COG           3.0                  2.4       
JG            1.0                 -0.7       
TRGSQ         3.0                  5.2       
TRSHQ         4.0                  5.6       
COS           1.5                  3.7       
JS            1.0                  1.5       
EX           10.0/7.0              6.0
PIM           2.0                  1.2

The first seven variables are the main government policy variables in the model aside from tax rates. TRGHQ is real federal government transfer payments to households, COG is real federal government purchases of goods, JG is federal government civilian employment, TRGSQ is real federal government transfer payments to state and local governments, TRSHQ is real state and local government transfer payments to households, COS is real state and local government purchases of goods, JS is state and local government employment, EX is real exports, and PIM is the import price deflator. For EX "10.0/7.0" means that EX was assumed to grow at an annual rate of 10.0 percent in 2010:4 and 2011:1 and then at 7.0 percent after that.

All tax rates for the baseline forecast were taken to remain unchanged from their 2010:3 values.

The values for COG were generated off of a base value of $563.5 billion in 2010:3. This base value is $27.2 billion lower that the actual value in 2010:3. This difference is my estimate of the effect of the stimulus bill on COG in 2010:3. The values for TRGHQ were generated off of a base value of $1436.1 billioni in 2010:3. This base value is $336.4 billion lower than the actual value in 2010:3. This difference is my estimate of the effect of the stimulus bill on TRGHQ in 2010:3.

The above assumptions for state and local governments result in roughly balanced budgets over time in the forecast. For the federal government everything is business as usual---no stimulus, etc. Again, this is for the baseline assumptions.

No assumption is needed about monetary policy for the forecast because monetary policy is endogenous. Monetary policy is determined by equation 30, an estimated interest rate reaction function or rule.

Stimulus Assumptions Behind the Forecast

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) issued a report on March 2, 2009, which analyzed the stimulus bill ("American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009," Public Law 111-5). The numbers that I have used for the present forecast are based (roughly) on the numbers in this report.

The stimulus bill has tax cuts, transfer payment increases, and increases in government purchases of goods and services. Some of the transfers are to state and local governments and some are directly to households. In the model it makes no difference whether the federal government makes transfer payments directly to households (variable TRGHQ) or makes them to state and local governments (variable TRGSQ) if the state and local governments in turn pass on the transfer payments to households (variable TRSHQ). To keep matters simple in the present forecast, all transfer payment increases are put into TRGHQ. Again, it would not matter if instead TRGSQ was increased and then TRSHQ increased by the same amount. In addition, tax cuts are taken to be increases in TRGHQ rather than decreases in the personal income tax rate D1G. Most of the tax cuts do not involve cutting tax rates, and so it seems better to put them in TRGHQ. All increases in purchases of goods and services are put in COG, federal government purchases of goods. Therefore, only two variables are changed for the stimulus measures, TRGHQ and COG. Consistent with this treatment, in the actual data for 2009:2, $154.0 billion was moved from THG to TRGH. Similarly, in the actual data for 2009:3, $247.0 billion was moved from THG to TRGH; in the actual data for 2009:4, $245.0 billion was moved from THG to TRGH; in the actual data for 2010:1, $228.0 billion was moved from THG to TRGH; in the actual data for 2010:2, $241 billion was moved from THG to TRGH, and in the actual data for 2010:3, $256 billion was moved from THG to TRGH. . These six values are my estimates of how much the stimulus bill affected THG in the five quarters.

The timing of expenditures is a major issue in trying to capture the effects of any stimulus package. I have roughly followed the CBO timing for the present experiment. I have assumed that TRGHQ is $336.4 billion larger in fiscal 2010, $93.6 billion larger in fiscal 2011, $10.4 billion larger in fiscal 2012, and $10.0 billion larger (at an annual rate) in 2012:4. I have roughly spread these increases evenly within the four quarters of the fiscal year. (Remember that TRGHQ is in real terms, so these estimates are in 2005 dollars.) For government spending on goods (COG) I have assumed it to be $27.5 billion larger in fiscal 2010, $28.8 billion larger is fiscal 2011, $21.6 billion larger in fiscal 2012, and $14.4 billion larger at an annual rate in 2012:4. (Remember that COG is also in real terms.)

The following table lists the additions by quarter that were made to TRGHQ and COG from their baseline values. The changes are at annual rates.

        TRGHQ    COG

2010:2  336.4    27.6
2010:3  336.4    27.2
2010:4   93.6    29.2
2011:1   93.6    28.8
2011:2   93.6    28.8
2011:3   93.6    28.4
2011:4   10.4    22.0
2012:1   10.4    21.6
2012:2   10.4    21.6
2012:3   10.4    21.2
2012:4   10.0    14.4

Regarding federal government spending on the bailout, this spending is in variable CTGB, capital transfers from the federal government to financial business. (This variable is in nominal terms.) Values of CTGB are the government's estimate of the eventual cost to the federal government of the bailout activity. The value for 2008:4 is $270.5 billion, the value for 2009:1 is $219.3 billion, the value for 2009:2 is $129.9 billion, the value for 2009:3 is $37.3 billion, the value for 2009:4 is $69.0 billion, the value for 2010:1 is $55.4 billion, the value for 2010:2 is $53.5 billion, and the value for 2010:3 is $58.7 billion (all at annual rates). For the forecast all future values of CTGB were taken to be zero.

The Forecast

Selected forecast results are present in Tables F1 through F4. If you want more detail, click "Solve current version" after "US Model," create a data set, and then go immediately to "Examine the results without solving the model." You can then examine any variable in the model.

Real GDP Growth and the Unemployment Rate: The forecast has real GDP growing at 0.8 percent in 2010:4, 2.7 percent in 2011:1, 3.7 percent in 2011:2, and 4.6 percent in 2011:3. The growth rates are around 4.5 percent in the last half of 2011 and in 2012. (All growth rates in this memo are at annual rates.) The unemployment rate falls to 8.6 percent by the end of 20110 and to 78.2 percent by the end of 20121. The jobs variable, JF, shows jobs rising by 5.9 million between 2010:3 and 2012:4.

Inflation: Inflation as measured by the growth of the GDP deflator (GDPD) rises to 2.0 percent by the end of 2011 and to 3.2 percent by the end of 2012.

Monetary Policy: The estimated interest rate rule (equation 30) is predicting that the three month bill rate (RS) will be essentially zero for the next four quarters and then begin rising. It is 1.7 percent at the end of 2012.

Federal Government Budget: The federal government budget deficit on a NIPA basis, variable -SGP, is predicted to be about $1 trillion for the next five years. It rises to $1.4 trillion by 2020. (Again, all values are at annual rates.) The federal government debt, variable -AG, is $20 trillion at the end of 2020, which is 72 percent of nominal GDP (variable AGZGDP in the model). This is up from 35.4 percent in 2007:1. Interest payments of the federal government, variable INTG, rise from $263.5 billion in 2010:3 to $1.10143 trillion in 2020:4 as a result of the increasing debt and rising interest rates.

U.S. Current Account: The deficit in the U.S. current account, variable SR, gradually falls over the period.

Comments on the Forecast and Possible Experiments to Run

The main message from the current forecast is that if there are no bad shocks, the economy comes out of the recession slowly but steadily. By the end of 2012 the unemployment rate is down to 7.2 percent. This is a fairly good picture. This message is probably not surprising. Monetary and fiscal policy are expansionary, and stocks that were drawn down during the recession are being built up. Without any bad shocks assumed, it is not surprising that the model is predicting a reasonably good economy. The assumption of no bad shocks, which is used for the forecast, means that stock prices, housing prices, and import prices grow at historically normal rates. There are no negative wealth shocks through falling stock prices and housing prices and no positive price shocks through rapidly rising import prices (due, say, to a depreciating dollar and/or rising dollar oil prices). Asset prices like stock prices, housing prices, exchange rates, and oil prices are essentially unpredictable.

Experiments can be run using the model in which stock prices (variable CG), housing prices (variable PSI14), and import prices (variable PIM) are changed. This allows one to examine the sensitivity of the forecast to changes in asset prices. It may be, for example, that the growing federal government debt triggers a large depreciation of the dollar and possible fall in U.S. equity prices, and this can be analyzed by changing CG and PIM. I have done some experiments like this in another recent paper, Possible Macroeconomic Consequences of Large Future Federal Government Deficits. Even though the current forecast looks encouraging for the economy, there is clearly a non trivial probability that bad shocks occur in response to the federal government debt situation. While shocks can't be predicted, the consequences of bad shocks can be analyzed.

To review, oil price shocks and exchange rate shocks are handled through changes in PIM. Housing price changes are handled through changes in PSI14. Changes in PSI14 change PKH relative to PD and thus change housing wealth, PIH*KH. This affects consumption through the wealth variable AA (equation 89 and equations 1, 2, and 3). Regarding the stock market, each change in the S&P 500 index of 10 points is a change in CG, the capital gains variable in the model, of about $100 billion. If you think that the S&P index will fall, say, 100 points, you should drop the equation for CG and change CG by about -$1,000 billion at a quarterly rate (-$4,000 billion at an annual rate). See the discussion in Section 7.2 of The US Model Workbook. This will have a negative effect on real output growth because of a negative wealth effect.

Regarding the stimulus measures, the key variables are TRGHQ and COG. The key personal income tax rate is D1G. The bailout variable is CTGB.

Table F1: Forecasts of Selected Variables
Table F1
US Model Forecasts of Selected Variables
Real GDP and Components
Billions of 2005 Dollars

Quar. GDPR %Ch CS %Ch CN %Ch CD %Ch
20041 12127.7 2.8 5518.3 3.8 1888.9 3.8 1031.0 4.5 20042 12213.9 2.9 5551.7 2.4 1893.9 1.1 1038.3 2.9 20043 12303.6 3.0 5589.6 2.8 1907.8 3.0 1058.7 8.1 20044 12410.3 3.5 5650.8 4.5 1927.6 4.2 1076.1 6.7 20051 12534.1 4.1 5686.4 2.5 1949.6 4.6 1083.3 2.7 20052 12587.6 1.7 5727.9 3.0 1961.5 2.5 1113.6 11.7 20053 12683.1 3.1 5767.2 2.8 1971.8 2.1 1126.7 4.8 20054 12748.7 2.1 5798.9 2.2 1990.7 3.9 1098.4 -9.7 20061 12915.9 5.4 5841.0 2.9 2003.7 2.6 1142.3 17.0 20062 12962.4 1.4 5884.2 3.0 2011.5 1.6 1139.4 -1.0 20063 12966.0 0.1 5914.3 2.1 2024.5 2.6 1152.1 4.5 20064 13060.6 3.0 5959.4 3.1 2054.7 6.1 1167.9 5.6 20071 13089.3 0.9 5994.4 2.4 2060.2 1.1 1181.2 4.6 20072 13194.2 3.2 6018.3 1.6 2059.0 -0.2 1194.5 4.6 20073 13268.4 2.3 6038.7 1.4 2067.7 1.7 1205.7 3.8 20074 13363.5 2.9 6061.8 1.5 2070.3 0.5 1212.9 2.4 20081 13339.2 -0.7 6090.6 1.9 2054.5 -3.0 1178.7 -10.8 20082 13359.0 0.6 6090.2 0.0 2064.6 2.0 1170.0 -2.9 20083 13223.6 -4.0 6070.0 -1.3 2035.6 -5.5 1133.2 -12.0 20084 12993.7 -6.8 6078.5 0.6 2010.1 -4.9 1063.9 -22.3 20091 12832.7 -4.9 6053.6 -1.6 2012.0 0.4 1076.6 4.9 20092 12810.0 -0.7 6027.7 -1.7 2008.3 -0.7 1068.2 -3.1 20093 12860.8 1.6 6020.7 -0.5 2016.8 1.7 1118.3 20.1 20094 13019.1 5.0 6028.7 0.5 2032.3 3.1 1115.1 -1.1 20101 13138.9 3.7 6029.6 0.1 2053.5 4.2 1138.9 8.8 20102 13194.9 1.7 6053.4 1.6 2063.3 1.9 1157.8 6.8 20103 13260.7 2.0 6090.2 2.5 2070.0 1.3 1175.2 6.1 20104 13285.9 0.8 6106.9 1.1 2073.1 0.6 1168.1 -2.4 20111 13373.3 2.7 6125.6 1.2 2078.0 1.0 1169.7 0.5 20112 13496.6 3.7 6146.6 1.4 2085.7 1.5 1178.4 3.0 20113 13649.2 4.6 6169.7 1.5 2095.7 1.9 1193.0 5.0 20114 13796.6 4.4 6192.8 1.5 2106.3 2.0 1206.0 4.4 20121 13951.3 4.6 6216.4 1.5 2118.0 2.2 1223.8 6.0 20122 14112.8 4.7 6241.1 1.6 2130.6 2.4 1244.8 7.0 20123 14275.5 4.7 6268.7 1.8 2143.8 2.5 1266.7 7.2 20124 14428.6 4.4 6301.3 2.1 2157.1 2.5 1287.1 6.6 20131 14563.0 3.8 6338.1 2.4 2170.2 2.4 1305.4 5.8 20132 14700.5 3.8 6377.9 2.5 2183.1 2.4 1322.9 5.5 20133 14837.7 3.8 6419.8 2.7 2195.8 2.3 1339.8 5.2 20134 14970.6 3.6 6463.5 2.8 2208.3 2.3 1355.8 4.9 20141 15098.1 3.5 6507.9 2.8 2220.7 2.3 1372.0 4.9 20142 15220.5 3.3 6553.2 2.8 2233.1 2.2 1388.1 4.8 20143 15338.2 3.1 6599.6 2.9 2245.4 2.2 1403.8 4.6 20144 15452.1 3.0 6648.1 3.0 2257.6 2.2 1418.2 4.2 20151 15562.7 2.9 6696.7 3.0 2269.9 2.2 1432.9 4.2 20152 15670.5 2.8 6745.7 3.0 2282.1 2.2 1447.7 4.2 20153 15776.3 2.7 6795.6 3.0 2294.5 2.2 1461.9 4.0 20154 15880.8 2.7 6847.5 3.1 2306.8 2.2 1474.9 3.6 20161 15984.5 2.6 6899.4 3.1 2319.3 2.2 1488.5 3.7 20162 16087.8 2.6 6951.4 3.0 2332.0 2.2 1502.4 3.8 20163 16191.4 2.6 7004.3 3.1 2345.0 2.2 1516.3 3.7 20164 16296.2 2.6 7059.8 3.2 2358.1 2.3 1529.1 3.4 20171 16402.1 2.6 7115.4 3.2 2371.4 2.3 1542.7 3.6 20172 16509.4 2.6 7172.0 3.2 2385.0 2.3 1556.6 3.7 20173 16618.5 2.7 7230.3 3.3 2398.8 2.3 1570.2 3.6 20174 16729.5 2.7 7291.5 3.4 2412.8 2.3 1582.7 3.2 20181 16842.2 2.7 7353.0 3.4 2427.0 2.4 1596.0 3.4 20182 16956.5 2.7 7415.4 3.4 2441.4 2.4 1609.7 3.5 20183 17072.7 2.8 7479.8 3.5 2455.9 2.4 1623.1 3.4 20184 17191.5 2.8 7548.4 3.7 2470.5 2.4 1634.6 2.9 20191 17312.2 2.8 7617.0 3.7 2485.2 2.4 1647.3 3.1 20192 17434.6 2.9 7686.1 3.7 2500.2 2.4 1660.8 3.3 20193 17558.9 2.9 7756.9 3.7 2515.3 2.4 1674.2 3.3 20194 17686.1 2.9 7832.3 3.9 2530.5 2.4 1685.6 2.8 20201 17815.2 3.0 7907.5 3.9 2545.8 2.4 1698.4 3.1 20202 17946.1 3.0 7983.7 3.9 2561.3 2.5 1711.8 3.2 20203 18079.2 3.0 8062.2 4.0 2576.8 2.5 1724.6 3.0 20204 18215.5 3.1 8146.5 4.2 2592.3 2.4 1735.0 2.4
Quar. IHH %Ch IKF %Ch IVF IM %Ch
20041 624.9 12.3 966.4 -5.7 52.4 1829.8 10.6 20042 645.4 13.7 990.3 10.3 78.7 1903.1 17.0 20043 648.3 1.8 1018.0 11.7 62.7 1930.7 5.9 20044 653.9 3.5 1040.4 9.1 71.6 1979.7 10.5 20051 670.1 10.3 1069.4 11.6 91.4 1991.0 2.3 20052 685.8 9.7 1085.9 6.3 15.5 2012.9 4.5 20053 691.0 3.1 1102.7 6.3 11.8 2025.2 2.5 20054 690.9 0.0 1113.8 4.1 81.0 2082.0 11.7 20061 685.8 -2.9 1168.5 21.1 65.8 2121.3 7.8 20062 653.5 -17.6 1191.7 8.2 72.5 2144.9 4.5 20063 621.6 -18.1 1203.2 3.9 67.5 2170.6 4.9 20064 579.5 -24.5 1208.4 1.7 31.8 2168.1 -0.5 20071 550.5 -18.6 1214.0 1.9 17.3 2192.7 4.6 20072 528.2 -15.2 1253.7 13.7 44.9 2217.5 4.6 20073 450.3 -47.2 1277.9 7.9 36.1 2244.6 5.0 20074 450.3 0.0 1295.8 5.7 12.6 2182.4 -10.6 20081 407.2 -33.1 1301.3 1.7 -8.2 2174.6 -1.4 20082 391.9 -14.2 1300.2 -0.3 -20.6 2190.4 2.9 20083 366.2 -23.8 1268.2 -9.5 -27.4 2189.8 -0.1 20084 328.9 -34.9 1187.8 -23.0 -94.3 2052.2 -22.9 20091 295.8 -34.6 1062.2 -36.1 -125.8 1840.8 -35.3 20092 277.9 -22.1 1039.4 -8.3 -161.8 1789.9 -10.6 20093 284.6 10.0 1029.9 -3.6 -128.2 1880.8 21.9 20094 285.0 0.5 1026.4 -1.3 -36.7 1903.6 4.9 20101 281.4 -5.0 1047.8 8.6 44.1 1954.8 11.2 20102 294.9 20.7 1095.0 19.3 68.8 2101.1 33.5 20103 270.6 -29.1 1120.7 9.7 115.5 2187.2 17.4 20104 256.6 -19.2 1111.0 -3.4 63.1 2152.8 -6.1 20111 259.2 4.1 1115.2 1.5 40.4 2127.3 -4.6 20112 281.2 38.7 1126.8 4.2 35.8 2112.4 -2.8 20113 313.7 54.8 1147.7 7.6 41.5 2108.6 -0.7 20114 341.7 40.8 1172.8 9.0 57.2 2113.3 0.9 20121 375.7 46.2 1204.9 11.4 62.9 2126.7 2.6 20122 412.9 45.9 1243.4 13.4 67.8 2148.3 4.1 20123 451.1 42.4 1285.0 14.1 72.9 2177.5 5.5 20124 488.2 37.2 1326.9 13.7 77.6 2213.1 6.7 20131 521.4 30.2 1366.7 12.5 79.7 2253.8 7.6 20132 552.1 25.7 1407.8 12.6 73.5 2298.7 8.2 20133 580.2 21.9 1449.0 12.2 71.0 2347.2 8.7 20134 605.3 18.5 1488.5 11.4 70.0 2398.3 9.0 20141 627.6 15.5 1526.5 10.6 68.6 2451.4 9.2 20142 647.0 13.0 1562.8 9.9 66.5 2505.8 9.2 20143 663.9 10.8 1596.9 9.0 64.1 2561.1 9.1 20144 678.4 9.0 1628.6 8.2 61.6 2616.7 9.0 20151 690.8 7.5 1657.8 7.4 59.1 2672.4 8.8 20152 701.4 6.3 1684.3 6.6 56.9 2727.7 8.5 20153 710.4 5.3 1708.4 5.8 54.8 2782.4 8.3 20154 718.1 4.4 1729.9 5.1 53.0 2836.4 8.0 20161 724.8 3.8 1749.1 4.5 51.6 2889.6 7.7 20162 730.7 3.3 1766.1 3.9 50.4 2941.9 7.4 20163 735.9 2.9 1781.0 3.4 49.5 2993.3 7.2 20164 740.7 2.6 1794.1 3.0 48.9 3044.0 6.9 20171 745.1 2.4 1805.6 2.6 48.6 3094.1 6.7 20172 749.3 2.3 1815.7 2.3 48.6 3143.6 6.6 20173 753.4 2.2 1824.6 2.0 48.9 3192.9 6.4 20174 757.5 2.2 1832.6 1.8 49.2 3242.0 6.3 20181 761.5 2.2 1839.7 1.6 49.8 3291.2 6.2 20182 765.6 2.2 1846.1 1.4 50.4 3340.4 6.1 20183 769.7 2.2 1852.0 1.3 51.0 3390.0 6.1 20184 773.9 2.2 1857.7 1.2 51.6 3440.1 6.0 20191 778.2 2.2 1863.3 1.2 52.4 3490.9 6.0 20192 782.6 2.3 1868.7 1.2 53.3 3542.4 6.0 20193 787.1 2.3 1874.3 1.2 54.1 3594.8 6.1 20194 791.7 2.3 1880.3 1.3 54.7 3648.3 6.1 20201 796.4 2.4 1886.6 1.4 55.7 3703.1 6.1 20202 801.2 2.4 1893.4 1.4 56.6 3759.2 6.2 20203 806.1 2.5 1900.7 1.6 57.4 3816.7 6.3 20204 811.1 2.5 1909.0 1.8 58.0 3876.0 6.4
GDPR Real GDP CS Consumption - Services CN Consumption - Nondurables CD Consumption - Durables IHH Residential Investment IKF Nonresidential Investment IVF Inventory Investment IM Imports %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Prices and Wages - %Ch
                                                                         

Quar. GDPD PF WF WR
20041 3.5 2.5 1.5 -1.0 20042 3.4 3.0 7.7 4.5 20043 2.9 3.7 5.8 1.9 20044 3.0 2.9 3.5 0.6 20051 3.8 3.3 -0.7 -3.9 20052 2.7 2.7 3.0 0.2 20053 4.2 4.6 7.5 2.7 20054 3.4 3.4 1.2 -2.2 20061 3.0 2.6 8.2 5.4 20062 3.6 3.9 0.9 -2.9 20063 3.1 2.6 2.0 -0.6 20064 1.8 1.3 7.4 6.0 20071 4.4 3.3 3.5 0.2 20072 3.2 3.3 -0.6 -3.7 20073 2.0 1.7 3.7 1.9 20074 0.9 0.4 6.4 6.0 20081 1.9 1.4 5.0 3.5 20082 3.3 3.6 1.3 -2.2 20083 4.5 5.4 5.1 -0.2 20084 -1.2 -0.8 4.2 5.1 20091 1.0 2.1 -5.4 -7.4 20092 0.3 0.3 6.9 6.6 20093 0.7 0.8 2.8 1.9 20094 -0.3 -1.0 0.2 1.3 20101 1.1 0.2 -2.3 -2.5 20102 2.0 1.7 -0.9 -2.6 20103 2.2 1.9 2.3 0.4 20104 0.8 0.5 3.9 3.4 20111 1.0 0.8 4.1 3.3 20112 1.3 1.2 4.4 3.2 20113 1.6 1.5 4.6 3.0 20114 2.0 1.9 4.9 2.9 20121 2.3 2.3 5.1 2.8 20122 2.6 2.6 5.4 2.7 20123 2.9 2.9 5.6 2.6 20124 3.2 3.1 5.8 2.5 20131 3.4 3.3 5.9 2.5 20132 3.5 3.5 6.0 2.4 20133 3.7 3.6 6.0 2.4 20134 3.7 3.6 6.0 2.3 20141 3.8 3.7 6.0 2.3 20142 3.8 3.7 6.0 2.2 20143 3.8 3.7 6.0 2.2 20144 3.8 3.6 5.9 2.2 20151 3.8 3.6 5.8 2.2 20152 3.7 3.5 5.8 2.2 20153 3.7 3.5 5.7 2.1 20154 3.6 3.4 5.6 2.1 20161 3.5 3.4 5.6 2.1 20162 3.5 3.3 5.5 2.1 20163 3.4 3.2 5.4 2.1 20164 3.4 3.2 5.4 2.1 20171 3.3 3.1 5.3 2.1 20172 3.3 3.1 5.3 2.1 20173 3.2 3.1 5.2 2.1 20174 3.2 3.0 5.2 2.1 20181 3.2 3.0 5.2 2.1 20182 3.2 3.0 5.1 2.1 20183 3.2 3.0 5.1 2.0 20184 3.2 3.0 5.1 2.0 20191 3.2 3.0 5.1 2.0 20192 3.2 3.0 5.1 2.0 20193 3.2 3.0 5.1 2.0 20194 3.2 3.0 5.1 2.0 20201 3.2 3.0 5.1 2.0 20202 3.2 3.0 5.1 2.0 20203 3.2 3.1 5.1 2.0 20204 3.2 3.1 5.1 2.0
GDPD GDP Price Index PF Firm Sector Price Index WF Nominal Wage Rate WR Real Wage Rate %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Money and Interest Rates
                                                                         

Quar. RS RB RM M1 %Ch UBR
20041 0.9 5.5 5.6 1490.3 6.7 75.5 20042 1.1 5.9 6.1 1503.0 3.4 80.5 20043 1.5 5.6 5.9 1526.5 6.4 75.9 20044 2.0 5.5 5.7 1554.7 7.6 65.5 20051 2.5 5.3 5.8 1549.9 -1.2 76.6 20052 2.9 5.1 5.7 1557.7 2.0 75.9 20053 3.4 5.1 5.8 1552.4 -1.3 71.9 20054 3.8 5.4 6.2 1553.5 0.3 69.1 20061 4.4 5.4 6.2 1574.2 5.4 70.1 20062 4.7 5.9 6.6 1573.9 -0.1 71.3 20063 4.9 5.7 6.6 1553.0 -5.2 67.1 20064 4.9 5.4 6.2 1539.3 -3.5 70.4 20071 5.0 5.4 6.2 1566.8 7.4 69.2 20072 4.7 5.6 6.4 1557.5 -2.3 69.1 20073 4.3 5.8 6.6 1537.2 -5.1 74.5 20074 3.4 5.5 6.2 1549.6 3.3 27.1 20081 2.0 5.5 5.9 1563.4 3.6 -32.5 20082 1.6 5.6 6.1 1584.3 5.4 -86.6 20083 1.5 5.7 6.3 1703.6 33.7 -21.3 20084 0.3 5.8 5.9 1808.1 26.9 353.4 20091 0.2 5.3 5.1 1785.8 -4.9 300.1 20092 0.2 5.5 5.0 1870.5 20.4 370.4 20093 0.2 5.3 5.2 1920.5 11.1 686.3 20094 0.1 5.2 4.9 1973.7 11.6 912.5 20101 0.1 5.3 5.0 1938.2 -7.0 1069.1 20102 0.1 5.0 4.9 1994.4 12.1 1000.1 20103 0.2 4.6 4.4 2005.3 2.2 999.0 20104 0.1 4.3 4.3 2012.6 1.5 799.0 20111 0.0 4.1 4.1 2020.8 1.7 599.0 20112 0.1 4.0 4.0 2029.8 1.8 399.0 20113 0.3 3.9 4.0 2039.0 1.8 199.0 20114 0.6 3.9 4.0 2048.6 1.9 99.0 20121 0.9 3.9 4.1 2058.5 1.9 99.0 20122 1.1 3.9 4.2 2068.7 2.0 99.0 20123 1.4 3.9 4.3 2079.1 2.0 99.0 20124 1.7 4.0 4.4 2089.9 2.1 99.0 20131 2.0 4.1 4.6 2101.2 2.2 99.0 20132 2.2 4.2 4.7 2113.0 2.3 99.0 20133 2.4 4.3 4.9 2125.4 2.4 99.0 20134 2.6 4.4 5.1 2138.3 2.5 99.0 20141 2.8 4.5 5.2 2151.8 2.5 99.0 20142 3.0 4.6 5.3 2165.9 2.7 99.0 20143 3.1 4.7 5.5 2180.7 2.8 99.0 20144 3.2 4.8 5.6 2196.1 2.9 99.0 20151 3.2 4.9 5.7 2212.2 3.0 99.0 20152 3.3 4.9 5.8 2229.0 3.1 99.0 20153 3.3 5.0 5.9 2246.5 3.2 99.0 20154 3.3 5.1 6.0 2264.6 3.3 99.0 20161 3.4 5.1 6.0 2283.3 3.4 99.0 20162 3.4 5.2 6.1 2302.7 3.4 99.0 20163 3.4 5.2 6.1 2322.7 3.5 99.0 20164 3.3 5.3 6.2 2343.3 3.6 99.0 20171 3.3 5.3 6.2 2364.5 3.7 99.0 20172 3.3 5.3 6.2 2386.2 3.7 99.0 20173 3.3 5.3 6.3 2408.5 3.8 99.0 20174 3.3 5.4 6.3 2431.3 3.8 99.0 20181 3.3 5.4 6.3 2454.7 3.9 99.0 20182 3.3 5.4 6.3 2478.5 3.9 99.0 20183 3.3 5.4 6.3 2502.9 4.0 99.0 20184 3.4 5.5 6.3 2527.7 4.0 99.0 20191 3.4 5.5 6.4 2553.0 4.1 99.0 20192 3.4 5.5 6.4 2578.8 4.1 99.0 20193 3.4 5.5 6.4 2605.0 4.1 99.0 20194 3.4 5.6 6.4 2631.7 4.2 99.0 20201 3.5 5.6 6.5 2658.9 4.2 99.0 20202 3.5 5.6 6.5 2686.5 4.2 99.0 20203 3.5 5.6 6.5 2714.5 4.2 99.0 20204 3.6 5.7 6.5 2743.0 4.3 99.0
RS Bill Rate RB Bond Rate RM Mortgage Rate M1 Money Supply UBR Unborrowed Reserves %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Employment and Labor Force
                                                                         

Quar. 100UR L1 L2 L3 JF E U %Ch %Ch %Ch %Ch %Ch mill.
20041 5.7 -1.1 0.1 5.2 0.9 1.7 8.3 20042 5.6 0.5 0.5 0.9 1.9 1.1 8.2 20043 5.4 2.3 0.8 12.7 2.0 5.8 8.0 20044 5.4 -0.3 0.1 2.7 1.5 0.9 7.9 20051 5.3 -0.4 -0.5 -7.5 1.8 -2.5 7.8 20052 5.1 0.8 0.7 5.4 2.1 2.9 7.6 20053 5.0 1.5 1.0 1.8 1.3 2.0 7.4 20054 5.0 -0.7 0.7 2.5 1.4 0.8 7.4 20061 4.7 2.0 1.0 1.6 3.0 2.5 7.1 20062 4.7 0.1 0.1 4.3 1.7 1.7 7.0 20063 4.6 0.3 1.7 1.7 0.8 1.2 7.0 20064 4.5 1.6 0.1 4.1 1.3 2.7 6.8 20071 4.5 3.0 -0.1 0.6 1.3 1.1 6.8 20072 4.5 -1.2 -0.7 -0.5 0.5 -0.8 6.8 20073 4.7 -0.8 1.5 1.9 -0.8 0.0 7.1 20074 4.8 0.8 0.3 2.8 0.8 0.6 7.4 20081 5.0 1.4 1.4 4.4 -0.7 1.8 7.6 20082 5.3 -1.0 1.5 2.5 -1.2 -0.6 8.2 20083 6.0 1.1 -0.5 1.9 -2.9 -2.1 9.3 20084 6.9 -1.5 0.5 1.9 -6.4 -3.5 10.7 20091 8.2 -2.1 -0.2 2.9 -6.8 -5.2 12.6 20092 9.3 2.2 0.6 1.7 -5.5 -3.1 14.3 20093 9.7 0.7 -2.2 -3.1 -3.3 -3.1 14.9 20094 10.0 -2.8 -1.0 -1.3 -1.7 -3.4 15.4 20101 9.7 -2.5 0.7 4.0 0.1 2.1 14.9 20102 9.7 3.1 -1.1 3.6 0.9 2.0 15.0 20103 9.6 -0.6 -2.6 0.5 0.8 -0.4 14.7 20104 9.5 0.0 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.8 14.6 20111 9.4 0.0 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 14.5 20112 9.2 0.0 0.7 0.9 1.5 1.4 14.2 20113 8.9 0.0 0.7 1.1 2.1 1.8 13.7 20114 8.6 0.0 0.7 1.3 2.4 2.0 13.3 20121 8.2 0.1 0.6 1.5 2.7 2.2 12.8 20122 7.9 0.1 0.6 1.7 2.9 2.3 12.3 20123 7.5 0.1 0.6 1.9 3.0 2.4 11.7 20124 7.2 0.1 0.6 2.1 3.0 2.3 11.3 20131 7.0 0.1 0.6 2.3 2.8 2.1 10.9 20132 6.7 0.1 0.6 2.4 2.7 2.0 10.6 20133 6.5 0.1 0.6 2.5 2.6 1.9 10.3 20134 6.4 0.1 0.6 2.5 2.4 1.7 10.1 20141 6.3 0.1 0.6 2.6 2.3 1.6 9.9 20142 6.2 0.1 0.5 2.6 2.1 1.5 9.8 20143 6.1 0.1 0.5 2.7 1.9 1.4 9.7 20144 6.1 0.1 0.5 2.7 1.7 1.3 9.7 20151 6.1 0.1 0.5 2.7 1.6 1.2 9.7 20152 6.1 0.0 0.5 2.6 1.4 1.1 9.7 20153 6.1 0.0 0.5 2.6 1.3 1.0 9.8 20154 6.1 0.0 0.5 2.6 1.2 0.9 9.8 20161 6.1 0.0 0.5 2.5 1.1 0.9 9.9 20162 6.2 0.0 0.5 2.5 1.0 0.9 10.0 20163 6.2 0.0 0.5 2.5 1.0 0.8 10.1 20164 6.2 -0.1 0.4 2.4 0.9 0.8 10.2 20171 6.3 -0.1 0.4 2.4 0.9 0.8 10.2 20172 6.3 -0.1 0.4 2.4 0.9 0.8 10.3 20173 6.3 -0.1 0.4 2.3 0.9 0.8 10.4 20174 6.3 -0.1 0.4 2.3 0.9 0.8 10.4 20181 6.3 -0.1 0.4 2.3 0.9 0.9 10.4 20182 6.3 -0.1 0.4 2.3 0.9 0.9 10.5 20183 6.3 -0.1 0.3 2.3 0.9 0.9 10.5 20184 6.3 -0.1 0.3 2.2 0.9 0.9 10.5 20191 6.3 -0.1 0.3 2.2 1.0 0.9 10.5 20192 6.3 -0.1 0.3 2.2 1.0 0.9 10.5 20193 6.3 -0.1 0.3 2.2 1.0 1.0 10.5 20194 6.2 -0.2 0.3 2.2 1.0 1.0 10.4 20201 6.2 -0.2 0.2 2.2 1.1 1.0 10.4 20202 6.2 -0.2 0.2 2.2 1.1 1.0 10.4 20203 6.1 -0.2 0.2 2.2 1.1 1.0 10.3 20204 6.1 -0.2 0.2 2.2 1.2 1.0 10.3
UR Unemployment Rate L1 Labor Force, Men 25-54 L2 Labor Force, Women 25-54 L3 Labor Force, All Others 16+ JF Jobs, Firm Sector E Total Employment U Total Unemployment %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Other Endogenous Variables
                                                                         

Quar. CG PIEF PIEF 100SRZ PROD SR SGP SSP %Ch %Ch
20041 2460.4 791.3 94.6 3.2 1.1 540.6 -409.5 -22.8 20042 825.2 858.0 38.3 3.7 3.4 618.8 -384.5 -20.9 20043 -161.6 916.9 30.4 3.4 3.7 636.8 -361.5 -3.6 20044 8057.4 902.1 -6.3 3.6 -1.2 719.7 -362.3 13.7 20051 1039.9 1133.1 148.9 1.6 1.9 699.0 -289.0 25.1 20052 3133.4 1177.1 16.5 1.3 1.0 708.6 -288.3 18.9 20053 5532.3 1175.3 -0.6 1.2 6.5 739.4 -287.5 25.4 20054 3705.3 1300.5 49.9 1.5 -1.6 833.7 -267.5 34.5 20061 7279.5 1348.9 15.7 2.2 -0.6 794.3 -207.2 62.4 20062 -1765.8 1352.1 0.9 2.5 0.7 815.6 -229.5 63.2 20063 3427.1 1430.5 25.3 2.3 -0.8 858.0 -215.6 42.3 20064 7197.9 1368.1 -16.3 2.6 1.8 744.3 -162.9 35.9 20071 3504.8 1374.3 1.8 2.4 3.2 799.0 -201.7 29.8 20072 5424.8 1403.6 8.8 2.0 2.8 772.5 -237.4 29.7 20073 1315.0 1349.2 -14.6 1.8 4.4 687.7 -265.3 10.0 20074 -3923.0 1444.4 31.4 2.1 6.6 627.5 -276.6 -20.6 20081 -7969.8 1285.4 -37.3 2.7 -0.3 693.4 -376.7 -29.2 20082 -3804.8 1250.8 -10.4 5.0 2.1 716.5 -761.4 -33.7 20083 -9361.4 1326.4 26.5 3.7 4.8 695.5 -646.6 -65.0 20084 -17699.1 914.9 -77.4 5.3 4.4 595.6 -680.1 -61.8 20091 -6315.1 988.3 36.1 5.6 -3.2 389.6 -1003.2 -41.7 20092 6691.5 976.1 -4.8 7.4 2.0 348.0 -1337.0 -33.7 20093 9272.7 1069.2 43.9 5.8 3.9 394.9 -1356.9 -19.2 20094 1622.7 1202.0 59.8 5.7 2.9 405.3 -1310.6 13.8 20101 4621.1 1410.4 89.5 5.6 3.6 450.1 -1314.4 28.7 20102 -7612.6 1428.7 5.3 6.1 -0.1 497.6 -1354.6 15.8 20103 4400.0 1499.9 21.5 5.7 0.9 520.6 -1353.1 52.1 20104 663.0 1401.9 -23.7 4.1 -0.1 447.4 -1051.6 -22.3 20111 1423.9 1381.1 -5.8 4.8 1.4 381.0 -1071.0 -22.8 20112 1647.9 1387.0 1.7 5.5 2.0 337.0 -1083.0 -20.5 20113 1799.4 1411.8 7.3 6.1 2.3 302.4 -1087.7 -15.7 20114 1709.7 1430.6 5.4 5.9 1.9 274.8 -988.7 -11.2 20121 1736.3 1453.3 6.5 6.4 1.8 254.3 -984.8 -6.1 20122 1761.9 1480.3 7.6 6.9 1.8 240.6 -979.7 -0.5 20123 1752.2 1507.8 7.7 7.3 1.8 232.9 -974.0 5.4 20124 1679.2 1528.9 5.7 7.7 1.5 230.4 -962.9 11.0 20131 1568.2 1538.4 2.5 8.0 1.2 231.6 -936.6 15.3 20132 1661.1 1555.1 4.4 8.2 1.4 236.0 -938.9 19.4 20133 1701.7 1574.5 5.1 8.5 1.5 243.0 -942.3 23.1 20134 1709.5 1593.0 4.8 8.7 1.6 251.6 -947.5 26.4 20141 1711.5 1609.3 4.2 8.9 1.6 261.2 -954.9 29.0 20142 1721.0 1623.8 3.6 9.1 1.6 271.3 -964.5 31.0 20143 1736.4 1636.7 3.2 9.3 1.6 281.4 -976.3 32.5 20144 1760.7 1648.7 3.0 9.4 1.6 291.1 -990.1 33.5 20151 1785.7 1659.7 2.7 9.6 1.7 299.9 -1005.5 34.0 20152 1814.8 1669.9 2.5 9.7 1.7 307.5 -1022.5 34.1 20153 1849.4 1679.7 2.4 9.8 1.8 313.6 -1040.9 33.9 20154 1891.3 1689.8 2.4 9.9 1.8 318.1 -1060.3 33.5 20161 1929.9 1699.9 2.4 10.0 1.8 320.9 -1080.6 32.9 20162 1971.3 1710.2 2.5 10.0 1.9 321.7 -1101.5 32.3 20163 2017.4 1721.3 2.6 10.1 1.9 320.7 -1122.7 31.6 20164 2071.1 1733.9 3.0 10.2 1.9 317.8 -1144.1 31.2 20171 2119.2 1747.5 3.2 10.2 2.0 313.2 -1165.5 30.9 20172 2169.3 1762.5 3.5 10.2 2.0 306.8 -1186.6 30.8 20173 2221.6 1779.0 3.8 10.3 2.0 298.9 -1207.5 31.0 20174 2278.9 1797.6 4.3 10.3 2.0 289.6 -1227.9 31.7 20181 2327.0 1817.6 4.5 10.3 2.0 278.9 -1247.9 32.7 20182 2376.4 1838.9 4.8 10.3 2.0 266.9 -1267.5 34.0 20183 2431.0 1862.3 5.2 10.3 2.0 253.8 -1286.6 35.6 20184 2495.1 1888.5 5.8 10.3 2.0 239.7 -1304.9 37.9 20191 2545.6 1916.4 6.0 10.3 2.0 224.8 -1322.6 40.5 20192 2595.3 1945.8 6.3 10.3 2.0 209.0 -1339.8 43.4 20193 2650.4 1977.3 6.6 10.2 2.0 192.6 -1356.3 46.8 20194 2717.9 2012.1 7.2 10.2 2.0 175.7 -1372.1 50.8 20201 2769.3 2048.6 7.5 10.2 2.0 158.3 -1387.0 55.1 20202 2821.2 2086.8 7.7 10.1 2.0 140.6 -1401.4 59.8 20203 2879.4 2127.3 8.0 10.1 2.0 122.7 -1415.0 65.0 20204 2953.4 2171.7 8.6 10.0 2.0 104.8 -1427.7 71.0
CG Capital Gains PIEF Profits SRZ Saving Rate PROD Productivity SR Savings-Foreign Sector SGP Federal Budget Deficit(-), NIPA SSP S&L Budget Deficit(-), NIPA %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Selected Exogenous Variables
                                                                         

Quar. COG COS EX TRGH TRGH PIM %Ch %Ch %Ch %Ch %Ch
20041 8.9 -0.9 9.8 987.4 8.4 9.1 20042 5.0 1.1 6.4 995.9 3.5 5.7 20043 12.9 -5.7 3.0 1004.8 3.6 4.2 20044 -11.8 -4.7 9.4 1017.2 5.0 10.0 20051 2.8 -2.5 7.6 1045.7 11.7 3.5 20052 1.9 0.6 8.8 1055.0 3.6 5.7 20053 20.6 -1.5 0.1 1069.4 5.6 8.5 20054 -13.9 3.9 10.4 1082.2 4.9 8.1 20061 28.4 -2.5 16.5 1138.5 22.5 1.6 20062 -6.6 6.0 6.9 1161.7 8.4 4.3 20063 -4.0 -0.2 0.6 1170.2 3.0 3.1 20064 2.1 -0.4 17.8 1183.8 4.7 -4.6 20071 -8.4 4.7 6.4 1216.9 11.7 4.0 20072 15.0 0.8 6.8 1227.4 3.5 4.0 20073 15.1 -1.2 15.8 1239.3 3.9 2.7 20074 0.6 -1.3 11.7 1256.3 5.6 24.1 20081 9.5 -5.1 5.7 1291.0 11.5 19.2 20082 10.8 -0.7 13.2 1624.2 150.5 16.5 20083 21.1 -2.4 -5.0 1416.1 -42.2 2.1 20084 9.2 -6.6 -21.9 1394.6 -5.9 -32.0 20091 -12.7 -4.0 -27.8 1487.8 29.5 -27.2 20092 20.5 4.3 -1.0 1770.5 100.5 2.4 20093 7.6 -0.2 12.2 1849.3 19.0 8.7 20094 -2.4 -6.6 24.3 1878.4 6.4 21.8 20101 0.1 -9.5 11.4 1907.6 6.4 12.4 20102 12.0 2.7 9.1 1937.5 6.4 -7.7 20103 18.0 3.2 5.0 1968.9 6.6 -7.9 20104 4.3 1.5 10.0 1714.4 -42.5 2.0 20111 2.6 1.5 10.0 1730.7 3.9 2.0 20112 2.9 1.5 7.0 1748.4 4.2 2.0 20113 2.6 1.5 7.0 1767.7 4.5 2.0 20114 -1.4 1.5 7.0 1695.0 -15.5 2.0 20121 2.6 1.5 7.0 1717.3 5.4 2.0 20122 2.9 1.5 7.0 1741.1 5.7 2.0 20123 2.6 1.5 7.0 1766.6 6.0 2.0 20124 -1.5 1.5 7.0 1793.1 6.1 2.0 20131 -6.3 1.5 7.0 1809.8 3.8 2.0 20132 3.0 1.5 7.0 1839.1 6.7 2.0 20133 3.0 1.5 7.0 1869.5 6.8 2.0 20134 3.0 1.5 7.0 1900.8 6.9 2.0 20141 3.0 1.5 7.0 1932.8 6.9 2.0 20142 3.0 1.5 7.0 1965.5 6.9 2.0 20143 3.0 1.5 7.0 1998.7 6.9 2.0 20144 3.0 1.5 7.0 2032.3 6.9 2.0 20151 3.0 1.5 7.0 2066.4 6.9 2.0 20152 3.0 1.5 7.0 2100.7 6.8 2.0 20153 3.0 1.5 7.0 2135.4 6.8 2.0 20154 3.0 1.5 7.0 2170.3 6.7 2.0 20161 3.0 1.5 7.0 2205.5 6.6 2.0 20162 3.0 1.5 7.0 2240.9 6.6 2.0 20163 3.0 1.5 7.0 2276.6 6.5 2.0 20164 3.0 1.5 7.0 2312.6 6.5 2.0 20171 3.0 1.5 7.0 2348.8 6.4 2.0 20172 3.0 1.5 7.0 2385.4 6.4 2.0 20173 3.0 1.5 7.0 2422.4 6.3 2.0 20174 3.0 1.5 7.0 2459.9 6.3 2.0 20181 3.0 1.5 7.0 2497.7 6.3 2.0 20182 3.0 1.5 7.0 2536.1 6.3 2.0 20183 3.0 1.5 7.0 2574.9 6.3 2.0 20184 3.0 1.5 7.0 2614.4 6.3 2.0 20191 3.0 1.5 7.0 2654.5 6.3 2.0 20192 3.0 1.5 7.0 2695.1 6.3 2.0 20193 3.0 1.5 7.0 2736.5 6.3 2.0 20194 3.0 1.5 7.0 2778.5 6.3 2.0 20201 3.0 1.5 7.0 2821.2 6.3 2.0 20202 3.0 1.5 7.0 2864.7 6.3 2.0 20203 3.0 1.5 7.0 2908.9 6.3 2.0 20204 3.0 1.5 7.0 2954.0 6.3 2.0
COG Real Federal Purchases of Goods COS Real S&L Purchases of Goods EX Exports TRGH Nominal Federal Transfer Payments PIM Import Price Index %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F2: Forecasts of the Federal Government Budget
Table F2
US Model Forecasts of the Federal Government Budget
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Quar. RECG TFG TCG IBTG SIG
20041 1904.6 768.8 226.4 100.5 793.5 20042 1950.3 788.8 243.2 100.6 802.0 20043 2006.3 812.7 262.6 101.6 813.0 20044 2036.5 826.7 269.0 101.9 822.0 20051 2190.6 894.9 333.8 103.7 840.5 20052 2218.3 919.3 326.7 107.9 845.3 20053 2264.8 946.1 333.6 106.8 859.0 20054 2326.8 967.0 369.8 104.6 865.7 20061 2431.6 1023.1 383.8 107.0 896.9 20062 2459.0 1034.7 396.1 107.4 899.8 20063 2502.8 1053.9 415.5 107.8 904.0 20064 2518.9 1088.0 384.6 106.1 917.8 20071 2593.4 1136.5 392.8 100.7 938.4 20072 2604.9 1155.1 384.0 101.0 940.1 20073 2596.0 1174.2 349.1 102.6 944.9 20074 2610.8 1196.4 325.4 103.0 957.8 20081 2587.4 1198.7 278.0 106.1 974.2 20082 2559.2 1183.7 262.0 109.9 973.1 20083 2508.1 1166.0 231.2 106.1 974.4 20084 2396.7 1119.1 157.4 101.8 967.8 20091 2173.3 912.8 154.9 93.4 948.0 20092 2295.0 1001.7 155.7 102.0 954.9 20093 2371.0 1074.0 184.4 100.9 953.5 20094 2423.8 1068.4 233.2 100.5 957.4 20101 2497.2 1071.2 297.1 103.1 970.6 20102 2533.7 1097.7 293.2 109.1 978.3 20103 2600.4 1123.5 321.3 111.9 984.6 20104 2619.8 1144.9 306.9 112.2 996.0 20111 2656.7 1169.3 304.6 112.8 1009.8 20112 2704.4 1197.2 306.5 113.5 1026.2 20113 2761.8 1228.9 311.4 114.5 1045.3 20114 2821.0 1261.6 315.5 115.6 1066.0 20121 2884.1 1295.7 320.2 116.8 1088.1 20122 2951.6 1331.9 325.7 118.2 1111.7 20123 3022.3 1369.8 331.4 119.7 1136.4 20124 3093.6 1408.4 336.2 121.4 1161.6 20131 3162.5 1446.6 339.2 123.2 1186.5 20132 3233.4 1485.3 343.5 125.0 1211.5 20133 3305.6 1524.5 348.2 126.9 1236.8 20134 3378.0 1563.9 352.8 128.9 1262.0 20141 3450.1 1603.4 357.1 130.9 1287.1 20142 3521.7 1642.9 361.1 132.9 1311.9 20143 3592.6 1682.2 365.0 135.0 1336.4 20144 3663.0 1721.3 368.7 137.1 1360.6 20151 3732.8 1760.2 372.3 139.2 1384.5 20152 3802.1 1799.1 375.8 141.3 1408.0 20153 3871.0 1837.8 379.3 143.5 1431.3 20154 3939.8 1876.6 382.8 145.6 1454.4 20161 4008.6 1915.4 386.4 147.8 1477.4 20162 4077.6 1954.4 389.9 150.0 1500.3 20163 4147.0 1993.7 393.6 152.2 1523.1 20164 4217.1 2033.3 397.6 154.4 1546.1 20171 4288.1 2073.5 401.7 156.6 1569.2 20172 4360.1 2114.3 406.1 158.9 1592.5 20173 4433.5 2155.7 410.7 161.3 1616.1 20174 4508.3 2197.8 415.7 163.6 1640.0 20181 4584.6 2240.8 420.9 166.0 1664.3 20182 4662.4 2284.6 426.4 168.5 1689.0 20183 4741.9 2329.3 432.1 171.0 1714.1 20184 4823.5 2375.0 438.4 173.5 1739.7 20191 4907.0 2421.7 445.0 176.2 1765.9 20192 4992.5 2469.5 451.8 178.8 1792.5 20193 5079.9 2518.4 459.0 181.5 1819.7 20194 5169.9 2568.4 466.7 184.3 1847.5 20201 5262.0 2619.7 474.7 187.1 1875.9 20202 5356.4 2672.3 483.1 190.0 1904.9 20203 5453.2 2726.1 491.8 193.0 1934.5 20204 5552.8 2781.3 501.2 196.1 1964.8
Quar. EXPG PUG-IGZ TRGH TRGR TRGS INTG SUBG SGP
20041 2314.1 706.4 987.4 39.1 339.6 200.3 42.8 -409.5 20042 2334.8 717.7 995.9 28.6 349.3 199.2 42.6 -384.5 20043 2367.8 732.5 1004.8 30.0 347.8 207.8 44.9 -361.5 20044 2398.8 729.0 1017.2 28.7 360.0 211.2 52.7 -362.3 20051 2479.6 756.9 1045.7 44.7 356.4 216.7 59.2 -289.0 20052 2506.6 758.8 1055.0 32.5 359.9 236.7 63.7 -288.3 20053 2552.3 780.6 1069.4 36.4 362.4 237.5 66.0 -287.5 20054 2594.3 767.1 1082.2 46.3 366.2 265.1 67.4 -267.5 20061 2638.8 810.4 1138.5 31.6 354.6 246.4 57.3 -207.2 20062 2688.5 808.5 1161.7 38.1 361.0 265.4 53.8 -229.5 20063 2718.4 813.1 1170.2 39.2 365.1 278.4 52.4 -215.6 20064 2681.8 812.1 1183.8 24.7 355.5 253.8 51.9 -162.9 20071 2795.1 822.8 1216.9 50.1 377.3 275.4 52.6 -201.7 20072 2842.3 840.4 1227.4 29.9 381.6 312.7 50.3 -237.4 20073 2861.3 862.0 1239.3 36.6 382.1 293.6 47.7 -265.3 20074 2887.4 870.4 1256.3 46.6 381.9 282.2 50.0 -276.6 20081 2964.1 901.9 1291.0 48.4 388.8 283.2 50.8 -376.7 20082 3320.6 920.1 1624.2 43.8 395.2 284.7 52.6 -761.4 20083 3154.7 954.2 1416.1 40.7 395.4 294.6 53.7 -646.6 20084 3076.8 962.3 1394.6 39.8 405.5 217.7 56.9 -680.1 20091 3176.5 958.1 1487.8 44.8 443.2 182.9 59.7 -1003.2 20092 3632.0 989.0 1770.5 59.3 503.1 249.3 60.8 -1337.0 20093 3727.9 999.7 1849.3 65.8 490.9 250.8 71.4 -1356.9 20094 3734.4 1001.8 1878.4 50.1 501.1 242.2 60.8 -1310.6 20101 3811.6 1017.3 1907.6 65.7 514.6 247.2 59.2 -1314.4 20102 3888.3 1038.5 1937.5 57.1 525.0 269.6 60.6 -1354.6 20103 3953.5 1061.5 1968.9 58.4 539.3 263.5 61.9 -1353.1 20104 3671.3 1074.0 1714.4 58.9 474.5 287.0 62.5 -1051.6 20111 3727.7 1084.6 1730.7 59.5 479.2 310.6 63.1 -1071.0 20112 3787.3 1096.5 1748.4 60.2 484.4 334.1 63.8 -1083.0 20113 3849.5 1108.9 1767.7 60.9 489.9 357.6 64.5 -1087.7 20114 3809.7 1115.5 1695.0 61.6 496.0 376.2 65.3 -988.7 20121 3868.8 1129.7 1717.3 62.4 502.6 390.7 66.2 -984.8 20122 3931.3 1145.3 1741.1 63.3 509.6 404.9 67.1 -979.7 20123 3996.3 1161.2 1766.6 64.2 517.0 419.1 68.1 -974.0 20124 4056.5 1170.6 1793.1 65.2 525.0 433.5 69.1 -962.9 20131 4099.2 1171.7 1809.8 66.3 533.3 447.9 70.2 -936.6 20132 4172.4 1189.8 1839.1 67.3 542.0 462.7 71.4 -938.9 20133 4247.9 1208.5 1869.5 68.4 550.9 478.0 72.5 -942.3 20134 4325.5 1227.5 1900.8 69.6 560.1 493.7 73.8 -947.5 20141 4405.0 1246.8 1932.8 70.8 569.6 510.1 75.0 -954.9 20142 4486.2 1266.4 1965.5 72.0 579.2 526.9 76.3 -964.5 20143 4569.0 1286.3 1998.7 73.2 589.0 544.4 77.6 -976.3 20144 4653.1 1306.2 2032.3 74.4 598.9 562.3 78.9 -990.1 20151 4738.3 1326.4 2066.4 75.6 608.9 580.9 80.2 -1005.5 20152 4824.6 1346.6 2100.7 76.9 619.0 599.9 81.5 -1022.5 20153 4911.9 1366.9 2135.4 78.2 629.3 619.4 82.9 -1040.9 20154 5000.2 1387.2 2170.3 79.5 639.6 639.4 84.2 -1060.3 20161 5089.2 1407.7 2205.5 80.7 649.9 659.7 85.6 -1080.6 20162 5179.0 1428.2 2240.9 82.0 660.4 680.5 87.0 -1101.5 20163 5269.7 1448.9 2276.6 83.3 670.9 701.7 88.3 -1122.7 20164 5361.2 1469.6 2312.6 84.7 681.5 723.2 89.7 -1144.1 20171 5453.5 1490.5 2348.8 86.0 692.2 744.9 91.1 -1165.5 20172 5546.8 1511.5 2385.4 87.3 702.9 767.0 92.6 -1186.6 20173 5641.0 1532.7 2422.4 88.7 713.8 789.4 94.0 -1207.5 20174 5736.2 1554.0 2459.9 90.1 724.9 812.0 95.5 -1227.9 20181 5832.5 1575.6 2497.7 91.4 736.0 834.8 96.9 -1247.9 20182 5929.9 1597.4 2536.1 92.8 747.3 857.9 98.4 -1267.5 20183 6028.5 1619.4 2574.9 94.3 758.8 881.2 99.9 -1286.6 20184 6128.5 1641.8 2614.4 95.7 770.4 904.7 101.4 -1304.9 20191 6229.7 1664.4 2654.5 97.2 782.2 928.4 103.0 -1322.6 20192 6332.3 1687.3 2695.1 98.7 794.2 952.4 104.6 -1339.8 20193 6436.3 1710.5 2736.5 100.2 806.4 976.6 106.2 -1356.3 20194 6541.9 1734.0 2778.5 101.7 818.8 1001.1 107.8 -1372.1 20201 6649.0 1757.9 2821.2 103.3 831.4 1025.8 109.5 -1387.0 20202 6757.8 1782.1 2864.7 104.9 844.2 1050.7 111.2 -1401.4 20203 6868.2 1806.8 2908.9 106.5 857.2 1076.0 112.9 -1415.0 20204 6980.5 1831.7 2954.0 108.1 870.5 1101.5 114.6 -1427.7
RECG Total Receipts TPG Personal Tax TCG Corporate Tax IBTG Indirect Business Tax SIG Social Insurance Contributions EXPG Total Current Expenditures PUG-IGZ Consumption Expenditures TRGH Transfer Payments to Persons TRGR Transfer Payments to Rest of the World TRGS Grants in Aid to S&L Governments INTG Net Interest Paid SUBG Subsidies less Current Surplus SGP NIPA Surplus(+) or Deficit(-)
Table F3: Forecasts of the State and Local Government Budget
Table F3
US Model Forecasts of the S&L Government Budget
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Quar. RECS TFS TCS IBTS SIS TRGS
20041 1436.6 240.5 37.8 758.1 23.0 339.6 20042 1460.0 237.6 40.8 770.1 23.9 349.3 20043 1488.5 252.0 43.9 781.6 24.5 347.8 20044 1533.2 264.3 44.3 800.5 24.8 360.0 20051 1562.5 269.3 55.3 818.1 25.1 356.4 20052 1583.6 273.0 53.0 834.2 25.1 359.9 20053 1606.9 277.9 53.3 849.9 24.8 362.4 20054 1636.8 286.7 58.2 862.4 24.1 366.2 20061 1657.3 298.4 59.6 882.1 23.1 354.6 20062 1683.3 305.5 60.2 894.1 22.1 361.0 20063 1691.7 300.4 61.6 902.1 21.3 365.1 20064 1691.0 305.5 55.1 912.5 20.6 355.5 20071 1752.2 322.3 59.1 931.4 19.7 377.3 20072 1768.7 325.3 59.3 940.6 18.9 381.6 20073 1771.4 323.3 56.2 947.3 18.5 382.1 20074 1781.2 321.6 56.5 957.4 18.6 381.9 20081 1801.1 337.1 50.3 958.2 19.0 388.8 20082 1830.0 347.4 52.1 967.1 19.4 395.2 20083 1822.7 333.4 54.3 969.8 19.9 395.4 20084 1790.2 323.8 35.2 954.4 20.5 405.5 20091 1803.6 300.6 43.1 943.5 21.0 443.2 20092 1822.7 264.7 44.4 936.6 21.5 503.1 20093 1850.8 290.0 48.7 945.9 21.8 490.9 20094 1885.8 293.8 61.3 953.0 22.1 501.1 20101 1926.9 291.5 82.0 960.8 22.3 514.6 20102 1937.8 280.6 88.1 964.1 22.4 525.0 20103 1975.9 292.0 94.4 969.2 22.5 539.3 20104 1915.1 296.7 90.0 972.1 22.7 474.5 20111 1929.9 302.1 89.3 976.8 22.9 479.2 20112 1949.2 308.1 89.8 983.4 23.2 484.4 20113 1972.6 315.0 91.3 991.9 23.4 489.9 20114 1997.4 322.2 92.5 1001.2 23.7 496.0 20121 2024.6 329.6 93.9 1011.9 24.1 502.6 20122 2054.3 337.5 95.5 1023.9 24.4 509.6 20123 2086.3 345.8 97.2 1037.2 24.7 517.0 20124 2119.8 354.3 98.6 1051.6 25.1 525.0 20131 2154.1 362.6 99.5 1066.8 25.5 533.3 20132 2189.9 371.2 100.7 1082.7 25.9 542.0 20133 2226.9 379.8 102.1 1099.3 26.4 550.9 20134 2264.8 388.5 103.4 1116.3 26.8 560.1 20141 2303.1 397.2 104.6 1133.6 27.3 569.6 20142 2341.9 405.9 105.8 1151.3 27.7 579.2 20143 2381.1 414.5 106.9 1169.2 28.2 589.0 20144 2420.6 423.1 108.0 1187.3 28.7 598.9 20151 2460.2 431.7 109.1 1205.6 29.1 608.9 20152 2500.0 440.3 110.1 1224.0 29.6 619.0 20153 2540.1 448.8 111.0 1242.5 30.1 629.3 20154 2580.3 457.3 112.1 1261.2 30.6 639.6 20161 2620.8 465.9 113.1 1279.9 31.1 649.9 20162 2661.5 474.4 114.1 1298.8 31.6 660.4 20163 2702.5 483.0 115.2 1317.9 32.1 670.9 20164 2744.1 491.7 116.3 1337.2 32.6 681.5 20171 2786.1 500.5 117.5 1356.8 33.1 692.2 20172 2828.7 509.3 118.8 1376.6 33.6 702.9 20173 2872.0 518.3 120.1 1396.7 34.2 713.8 20174 2916.1 527.5 121.5 1417.3 34.7 724.9 20181 2960.8 536.8 123.1 1438.1 35.2 736.0 20182 3006.3 546.2 124.6 1459.3 35.8 747.3 20183 3052.7 555.9 126.3 1480.9 36.3 758.8 20184 3100.2 565.7 128.2 1503.1 36.9 770.4 20191 3148.5 575.7 130.1 1525.7 37.4 782.2 20192 3197.8 586.0 132.1 1548.7 38.0 794.2 20193 3248.1 596.4 134.2 1572.2 38.6 806.4 20194 3299.7 607.1 136.4 1596.3 39.2 818.8 20201 3352.3 618.0 138.8 1620.9 39.8 831.4 20202 3406.0 629.2 141.2 1646.0 40.4 844.2 20203 3460.9 640.6 143.8 1671.6 41.0 857.2 20204 3517.5 652.3 146.6 1698.1 41.7 870.5
Quar. EXPS PUS-ISZ TRSH INTS DRS SUBS SSP
20041 1459.4 1116.8 323.0 21.1 -1.7 -1.5 -22.8 20042 1480.9 1129.1 332.7 19.9 -1.8 -0.8 -20.9 20043 1492.1 1144.0 330.0 18.3 -1.9 -0.2 -3.6 20044 1519.5 1166.3 336.4 16.5 -2.6 0.3 13.7 20051 1537.4 1182.0 341.7 14.2 -1.9 -0.5 25.1 20052 1564.7 1198.4 353.9 12.0 -2.1 0.4 18.9 20053 1581.5 1222.9 348.2 9.8 -2.1 0.6 25.4 20054 1602.3 1244.8 349.2 7.5 -2.1 0.8 34.5 20061 1594.9 1254.5 334.2 5.5 -2.2 0.7 62.4 20062 1620.1 1274.6 340.7 3.3 -2.3 1.5 63.2 20063 1649.4 1292.7 353.0 1.7 -2.4 2.0 42.3 20064 1655.1 1307.6 346.8 -2.0 -2.4 2.7 35.9 20071 1722.4 1337.8 378.0 -0.9 -2.4 7.5 29.8 20072 1739.0 1360.6 360.2 -0.8 -2.3 19.0 29.7 20073 1761.4 1376.2 365.5 0.5 -2.4 19.2 10.0 20074 1801.8 1401.0 378.7 3.0 -2.4 19.1 -20.6 20081 1830.3 1427.8 379.3 6.3 -2.5 16.9 -29.2 20082 1863.7 1455.0 383.8 8.7 -2.4 16.2 -33.7 20083 1887.7 1474.2 388.2 9.9 -2.5 15.4 -65.0 20084 1852.0 1435.7 390.5 10.2 -2.6 15.6 -61.8 20091 1845.3 1415.7 406.4 10.3 -2.8 12.9 -41.7 20092 1856.4 1424.0 413.4 8.4 -2.4 10.6 -33.7 20093 1870.0 1425.6 425.6 9.4 -2.8 9.4 -19.2 20094 1872.0 1432.2 422.2 8.7 -2.9 8.9 13.8 20101 1898.2 1447.4 430.8 9.7 -3.0 10.3 28.7 20102 1922.0 1446.7 452.5 11.8 -2.9 11.0 15.8 20103 1923.8 1442.0 457.9 13.1 -2.8 10.8 52.1 20104 1937.4 1458.2 455.1 13.2 -2.8 10.9 -22.3 20111 1952.8 1475.5 452.9 13.4 -2.9 11.0 -22.8 20112 1969.8 1493.8 451.3 13.5 -2.9 11.1 -20.5 20113 1988.3 1513.5 449.8 13.7 -2.9 11.3 -15.7 20114 2008.5 1534.4 449.0 13.8 -3.0 11.4 -11.2 20121 2030.7 1556.5 448.7 14.0 -3.0 11.5 -6.1 20122 2054.8 1579.8 449.1 14.2 -3.0 11.7 -0.5 20123 2080.9 1604.4 450.2 14.4 -3.1 11.9 5.4 20124 2108.8 1629.9 452.3 14.6 -3.1 12.1 11.0 20131 2138.8 1656.3 455.4 14.9 -3.2 12.3 15.3 20132 2170.6 1683.5 459.5 15.1 -3.2 12.5 19.4 20133 2203.8 1711.3 464.5 15.4 -3.3 12.7 23.1 20134 2238.4 1739.6 470.3 15.6 -3.3 12.9 26.4 20141 2274.1 1768.4 476.7 15.9 -3.4 13.1 29.0 20142 2310.9 1797.7 483.8 16.1 -3.4 13.3 31.0 20143 2348.6 1827.2 491.5 16.4 -3.5 13.5 32.5 20144 2387.1 1857.0 499.7 16.7 -3.6 13.8 33.5 20151 2426.2 1886.9 508.3 17.0 -3.6 14.0 34.0 20152 2465.9 1917.1 517.4 17.3 -3.7 14.2 34.1 20153 2506.2 1947.4 526.8 17.5 -3.7 14.5 33.9 20154 2546.8 1977.8 536.5 17.8 -3.8 14.7 33.5 20161 2587.9 2008.4 546.4 18.1 -3.9 14.9 32.9 20162 2629.2 2039.1 556.5 18.4 -3.9 15.2 32.3 20163 2670.9 2070.0 566.8 18.7 -4.0 15.4 31.6 20164 2713.0 2101.1 577.3 19.0 -4.1 15.7 31.2 20171 2755.3 2132.3 587.8 19.3 -4.1 15.9 30.9 20172 2797.9 2163.8 598.4 19.6 -4.2 16.1 30.8 20173 2840.9 2195.6 609.0 19.9 -4.3 16.4 31.0 20174 2884.3 2227.7 619.8 20.2 -4.3 16.7 31.7 20181 2928.1 2260.1 630.6 20.5 -4.4 16.9 32.7 20182 2972.3 2292.9 641.4 20.8 -4.5 17.2 34.0 20183 3017.0 2326.1 652.4 21.1 -4.5 17.4 35.6 20184 3062.2 2359.6 663.4 21.5 -4.6 17.7 37.9 20191 3108.0 2393.7 674.6 21.8 -4.7 18.0 40.5 20192 3154.3 2428.2 685.8 22.1 -4.7 18.2 43.4 20193 3201.3 2463.2 697.1 22.5 -4.8 18.5 46.8 20194 3248.9 2498.7 708.6 22.8 -4.9 18.8 50.8 20201 3297.2 2534.8 720.2 23.2 -5.0 19.1 55.1 20202 3346.2 2571.4 731.9 23.5 -5.0 19.4 59.8 20203 3396.0 2608.6 743.8 23.9 -5.1 19.7 65.0 20204 3446.5 2646.4 755.8 24.3 -5.2 20.0 71.0
RECS Total Receipts TPS Personal Tax TCS Corporate Tax IBTS Indirect Business Tax SIS Social Insurance Contributions TRGS Grants in Aid from Federal Government EXPS Total Current Expenditures PUS-ISZ Consumption Expenditures TRSH Transfer Payments to Persons INTS Net Interest Paid DRS Dividends Received SUBS Subsidies less Current Surplus SSP NIPA Surplus(+) or Deficit(-)
Table F4 Forecasts of Savings Flows
Table F4
US Model Forecasts of Savings Flows
Savings by Sector
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Quar. SH SF SB SR SG SS
20041 -171.9 83.2 120.1 540.6 -417.9 -154.1 20042 -160.6 -10.0 102.4 618.8 -394.3 -156.3 20043 -185.5 29.9 31.9 636.8 -377.3 -135.8 20044 -169.4 -171.7 114.0 719.7 -377.0 -115.6 20051 -369.8 -81.2 153.4 699.0 -299.1 -102.5 20052 -415.9 4.3 115.5 708.6 -300.9 -111.7 20053 -445.4 100.1 11.9 739.4 -300.5 -105.5 20054 -415.3 -97.3 65.9 833.7 -284.8 -102.2 20061 -352.2 -270.4 125.2 794.3 -224.5 -72.4 20062 -287.7 -313.7 116.1 815.6 -249.1 -81.2 20063 -273.0 -334.4 81.0 858.0 -229.8 -102.0 20064 -204.3 -335.7 85.7 744.3 -182.8 -107.2 20071 -192.9 -280.0 8.0 799.0 -215.2 -118.9 20072 -200.0 -202.1 8.0 772.5 -258.5 -120.0 20073 -137.0 -138.6 13.3 687.7 -285.4 -140.0 20074 -98.7 -4.2 -53.0 627.5 -298.0 -173.6 20081 10.1 -120.0 -7.7 693.4 -392.5 -183.3 20082 282.1 -19.5 5.9 716.5 -792.0 -193.1 20083 162.9 169.6 -122.8 695.5 -679.3 -225.9 20084 377.5 194.6 -233.7 595.6 -715.5 -218.5 20091 447.5 401.5 -15.4 389.6 -1029.7 -193.5 20092 677.5 444.1 85.5 348.0 -1367.0 -188.1 20093 497.3 524.0 145.3 394.9 -1389.9 -171.5 20094 494.4 386.1 190.8 405.3 -1348.7 -127.9 20101 485.5 362.1 148.7 450.1 -1347.3 -99.2 20102 535.6 331.8 149.2 497.6 -1396.8 -117.4 20103 520.2 299.8 140.9 520.6 -1397.4 -84.0 20104 353.7 311.2 141.9 447.4 -1096.2 -158.0 20111 434.9 315.2 143.2 381.0 -1116.1 -158.2 20112 491.3 311.3 144.6 337.0 -1128.6 -155.6 20113 535.5 300.3 146.2 302.4 -1133.9 -150.5 20114 490.4 268.2 147.9 274.8 -1035.4 -146.0 20121 525.9 243.0 149.8 254.3 -1032.1 -141.0 20122 555.3 215.3 152.0 240.6 -1027.7 -135.5 20123 580.7 184.5 154.2 232.9 -1022.6 -129.7 20124 601.1 148.6 156.7 230.4 -1012.3 -124.5 20131 607.5 109.1 159.2 231.6 -986.8 -120.5 20132 624.8 84.1 161.8 236.0 -990.0 -116.8 20133 643.1 56.9 164.5 243.0 -994.1 -113.4 20134 662.3 29.6 167.3 251.6 -1000.2 -110.5 20141 682.4 3.1 170.1 261.2 -1008.5 -108.3 20142 703.2 -21.8 173.0 271.3 -1019.0 -106.7 20143 724.6 -44.6 175.9 281.4 -1031.7 -105.6 20144 746.1 -64.7 178.9 291.1 -1046.4 -104.9 20151 768.4 -82.6 181.9 299.9 -1062.8 -104.7 20152 791.3 -97.9 184.9 307.5 -1080.8 -104.9 20153 814.6 -110.6 187.9 313.6 -1100.1 -105.4 20154 837.7 -120.3 190.9 318.1 -1120.5 -106.0 20161 861.3 -127.7 194.0 320.9 -1141.7 -106.7 20162 884.9 -132.6 197.0 321.7 -1163.5 -107.5 20163 908.2 -134.9 200.1 320.7 -1185.8 -108.2 20164 930.4 -134.5 203.2 317.8 -1208.2 -108.7 20171 952.3 -132.2 206.3 313.2 -1230.5 -109.0 20172 973.4 -128.0 209.5 306.8 -1252.7 -109.1 20173 993.6 -121.8 212.6 298.9 -1274.6 -108.8 20174 1012.3 -113.7 215.9 289.6 -1296.0 -108.0 20181 1030.6 -104.6 219.1 278.9 -1317.1 -106.9 20182 1048.2 -94.3 222.4 266.9 -1337.7 -105.5 20183 1064.6 -82.6 225.7 253.8 -1357.9 -103.6 20184 1078.7 -69.2 229.1 239.7 -1377.3 -101.1 20191 1092.6 -55.6 232.6 224.8 -1396.1 -98.2 20192 1106.0 -41.6 236.1 209.0 -1414.4 -95.1 20193 1118.2 -26.9 239.6 192.6 -1432.1 -91.4 20194 1127.9 -10.8 243.3 175.7 -1448.9 -87.1 20201 1137.5 4.7 247.0 158.3 -1465.1 -82.4 20202 1146.4 20.2 250.7 140.6 -1480.6 -77.3 20203 1153.9 36.1 254.6 122.7 -1495.5 -71.7 20204 1158.1 53.2 258.5 104.8 -1509.4 -65.3 SH Saving, Households SF Saving, Firms SB Saving, Financial SR Saving, Foreign SG Saving, Federal SS Saving, State and Local
NIPA Table 1.1.5
NIPA Table 1.1.5
US Model Forecasts Gross Domestic Product
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Table 1.1.5 Quar. 1 2 3 4 5
20041 11597.2 8105.4 1045.9 1789.2 5270.3 20042 11778.4 8209.4 1052.3 1810.5 5346.6 20043 11950.6 8330.7 1065.0 1834.4 5431.3 20044 12144.9 8494.9 1083.1 1888.7 5523.1 20051 12379.5 8609.6 1089.2 1908.1 5612.3 20052 12516.8 8747.2 1117.9 1929.4 5699.9 20053 12741.6 8908.9 1122.5 2002.0 5784.4 20054 12915.6 9010.2 1092.3 2034.2 5883.7 20061 13183.5 9148.2 1132.5 2048.3 5967.4 20062 13347.8 9266.6 1125.1 2081.4 6060.1 20063 13453.0 9391.8 1132.4 2118.1 6141.3 20064 13611.6 9484.1 1142.2 2106.9 6235.0 20071 13789.2 9632.7 1149.8 2143.9 6339.0 20072 14008.1 9753.2 1158.7 2184.7 6409.8 20073 14158.4 9850.9 1163.2 2206.6 6481.1 20074 14291.4 9988.4 1166.0 2257.8 6564.6 20081 14332.6 10065.7 1131.1 2284.3 6650.3 20082 14471.7 10183.0 1117.1 2341.6 6724.3 20083 14484.9 10202.0 1080.2 2369.9 6751.9 20084 14191.3 9967.3 1005.6 2188.4 6773.3 20091 14049.6 9913.0 1012.2 2146.2 6754.6 20092 14034.5 9920.1 1004.7 2170.7 6744.7 20093 14114.7 10040.8 1045.2 2231.0 6764.6 20094 14277.4 10131.5 1043.9 2269.0 6818.6 20101 14446.6 10230.9 1060.7 2319.3 6850.9 20102 14578.8 10285.4 1074.1 2303.4 6907.9 20103 14730.3 10376.7 1084.1 2325.0 6967.6 20104 14787.4 10407.6 1079.1 2331.8 6996.7 20111 14922.3 10457.6 1082.8 2342.2 7032.6 20112 15108.8 10529.1 1094.1 2357.7 7077.4 20113 15341.5 10620.1 1111.8 2377.9 7130.5 20114 15584.8 10719.5 1129.0 2400.7 7189.8 20121 15850.0 10834.0 1151.7 2426.9 7255.5 20122 16137.3 10962.7 1178.5 2456.0 7328.1 20123 16440.7 11104.5 1207.2 2487.7 7409.6 20124 16747.6 11258.7 1235.5 2521.3 7501.8 20131 17045.4 11421.6 1262.7 2555.9 7603.1 20132 17356.9 11592.3 1289.7 2591.3 7711.3 20133 17677.0 11769.2 1316.7 2627.5 7825.0 20134 18000.2 11951.1 1343.5 2664.3 7943.3 20141 18323.4 12136.9 1370.9 2701.6 8064.4 20142 18645.6 12326.0 1398.5 2739.3 8188.2 20143 18966.5 12517.7 1426.0 2777.2 8314.4 20144 19286.2 12712.0 1452.5 2815.3 8444.2 20151 19604.2 12907.8 1479.4 2853.4 8574.9 20152 19920.6 13104.7 1506.6 2891.7 8706.4 20153 20235.7 13302.9 1533.3 2930.1 8839.5 20154 20550.8 13502.8 1558.8 2968.5 8975.5 20161 20865.5 13703.7 1585.0 3007.1 9111.6 20162 21180.5 13905.8 1611.7 3045.9 9248.2 20163 21496.7 14109.8 1638.4 3085.1 9386.3 20164 21815.9 14316.8 1664.0 3124.5 9528.3 20171 22137.8 14526.1 1690.7 3164.3 9671.1 20172 22463.3 14738.3 1717.8 3204.6 9815.9 20173 22793.2 14953.9 1744.8 3245.4 9963.7 20174 23128.6 15173.9 1770.6 3286.6 10116.8 20181 23468.8 15397.2 1797.6 3328.3 10271.2 20182 23814.1 15624.1 1825.3 3370.6 10428.2 20183 24165.6 15855.7 1852.8 3413.5 10589.4 20184 24525.0 16093.4 1878.5 3456.7 10758.1 20191 24891.0 16335.1 1905.8 3500.7 10928.6 20192 25263.5 16581.2 1934.2 3545.3 11101.6 20193 25643.5 16832.5 1962.8 3590.7 11279.0 20194 26033.0 17091.0 1989.5 3636.5 11465.0 20201 26430.3 17354.2 2018.1 3683.1 11653.0 20202 26835.5 17622.6 2047.7 3730.5 11844.5 20203 27249.6 17897.3 2077.0 3778.5 12041.8 20204 27675.3 18180.9 2103.7 3827.0 12250.3
Quar. 6 7 8 11 12
20041 1853.6 1802.2 1164.6 637.6 51.4 20042 1956.0 1880.0 1204.4 675.6 76.0 20043 2001.4 1940.6 1244.0 696.6 60.8 20044 2063.2 1991.7 1279.1 712.6 71.5 20051 2130.7 2040.0 1305.2 734.8 90.7 20052 2115.3 2099.4 1334.9 764.5 15.9 20053 2166.5 2155.5 1362.9 792.6 11.0 20054 2276.4 2194.2 1386.3 807.9 82.2 20061 2336.5 2270.5 1457.2 813.3 66.0 20062 2352.1 2279.7 1495.3 784.4 72.4 20063 2333.5 2264.4 1522.7 741.7 69.1 20064 2286.5 2254.2 1546.1 708.1 32.3 20071 2277.3 2260.3 1579.6 680.7 17.0 20072 2329.6 2282.1 1624.9 657.2 47.5 20073 2313.4 2274.0 1660.7 613.3 39.4 20074 2260.5 2247.9 1684.6 563.3 12.6 20081 2203.1 2212.5 1695.4 517.1 -9.4 20082 2170.8 2194.1 1697.5 496.6 -23.3 20083 2111.3 2140.7 1678.2 462.5 -29.4 20084 1905.8 2003.8 1590.1 413.7 -98.0 20091 1640.3 1782.2 1415.2 367.0 -141.9 20092 1530.2 1709.7 1367.5 342.2 -179.5 20093 1548.5 1691.8 1343.8 348.0 -143.3 20094 1637.7 1681.9 1330.9 351.0 -44.2 20101 1739.8 1689.8 1349.6 340.2 50.0 20102 1841.8 1761.4 1404.2 357.2 80.4 20103 1896.1 1765.9 1438.5 327.4 130.2 20104 1817.6 1746.4 1432.6 313.9 71.2 20111 1805.2 1759.6 1442.0 317.6 45.7 20112 1842.5 1801.9 1460.4 341.5 40.6 20113 1913.8 1866.5 1489.8 376.6 47.3 20114 1998.3 1932.9 1525.2 407.7 65.4 20121 2087.3 2015.1 1569.4 445.6 72.3 20122 2188.1 2109.7 1622.0 487.7 78.5 20123 2296.0 2211.1 1679.6 531.5 84.9 20124 2405.3 2314.3 1739.2 575.0 91.0 20131 2507.6 2413.4 1798.0 615.4 94.2 20132 2600.9 2513.4 1859.6 653.8 87.5 20133 2697.8 2612.6 1922.6 689.9 85.3 20134 2793.3 2708.5 1984.9 723.6 84.7 20141 2884.9 2801.2 2046.5 754.6 83.7 20142 2972.1 2890.2 2107.2 783.0 81.9 20143 3054.6 2975.0 2166.1 808.9 79.6 20144 3132.4 3055.4 2222.9 832.4 77.0 20151 3205.8 3131.2 2277.4 853.8 74.6 20152 3274.9 3202.6 2329.3 873.3 72.3 20153 3339.8 3269.6 2378.5 891.1 70.3 20154 3401.0 3332.6 2425.1 907.4 68.5 20161 3458.9 3391.8 2469.2 922.7 67.1 20162 3513.7 3447.6 2510.7 937.0 66.1 20163 3565.8 3500.4 2549.8 950.6 65.4 20164 3615.6 3550.6 2587.0 963.6 65.0 20171 3663.8 3598.7 2622.4 976.3 65.1 20172 3710.5 3644.9 2656.1 988.8 65.6 20173 3756.1 3689.8 2688.6 1001.2 66.3 20174 3800.9 3733.6 2720.0 1013.6 67.2 20181 3845.2 3776.6 2750.5 1026.1 68.5 20182 3889.0 3819.1 2780.4 1038.7 69.9 20183 3932.5 3861.4 2809.8 1051.5 71.2 20184 3976.2 3903.8 2839.3 1064.5 72.4 20191 4020.6 3946.5 2868.8 1077.7 74.1 20192 4065.5 3989.7 2898.5 1091.2 75.9 20193 4111.0 4033.6 2928.6 1104.9 77.5 20194 4157.4 4078.6 2959.6 1119.0 78.9 20201 4205.6 4124.8 2991.5 1133.3 80.8 20202 4255.0 4172.2 3024.2 1148.0 82.7 20203 4305.6 4221.2 3058.2 1163.0 84.5 20204 4358.1 4272.1 3093.8 1178.3 86.0
Quar. 13 14 17 20 21 24
20041 -546.3 1138.8 1685.1 2184.5 805.1 1379.4 20042 -606.1 1170.8 1776.9 2219.1 819.9 1399.2 20043 -635.9 1185.4 1821.3 2254.4 839.1 1415.3 20044 -686.5 1225.9 1912.4 2273.3 834.5 1438.8 20051 -677.4 1262.4 1939.8 2316.6 862.0 1454.6 20052 -690.2 1298.5 1988.7 2344.5 867.2 1477.3 20053 -733.9 1308.2 2042.1 2400.1 894.1 1506.0 20054 -789.3 1351.3 2140.6 2418.3 881.9 1536.4 20061 -775.8 1414.0 2189.8 2474.6 928.5 1546.1 20062 -781.4 1456.0 2237.4 2510.5 930.3 1580.2 20063 -805.7 1476.0 2281.7 2533.4 932.2 1601.2 20064 -714.3 1538.2 2252.5 2555.3 935.9 1619.4 20071 -725.1 1575.5 2300.6 2604.3 944.0 1660.3 20072 -730.7 1619.1 2349.8 2656.0 968.7 1687.3 20073 -704.4 1690.3 2394.7 2698.5 992.1 1706.4 20074 -695.7 1761.8 2457.5 2738.2 1000.6 1737.6 20081 -738.5 1819.9 2558.4 2802.3 1033.4 1768.9 20082 -751.9 1925.3 2677.2 2869.8 1065.2 1804.6 20083 -763.1 1927.3 2690.4 2934.7 1105.5 1829.2 20084 -588.4 1700.9 2289.3 2906.6 1115.4 1791.2 20091 -375.7 1521.2 1896.9 2872.0 1103.2 1768.8 20092 -335.1 1520.2 1855.3 2919.3 1139.8 1779.5 20093 -408.4 1582.1 1990.5 2933.8 1155.4 1778.4 20094 -426.4 1689.9 2116.3 2934.6 1159.9 1774.7 20101 -479.8 1757.8 2237.6 2955.7 1178.1 1777.6 20102 -539.2 1817.9 2357.1 2990.8 1206.7 1784.1 20103 -561.4 1842.1 2403.5 3018.9 1233.6 1785.3 20104 -488.6 1888.9 2377.4 3050.8 1247.7 1803.1 20111 -422.6 1938.3 2361.0 3082.0 1260.0 1822.0 20112 -379.0 1977.1 2356.1 3116.2 1273.8 1842.4 20113 -345.0 2018.5 2363.4 3152.6 1288.2 1864.3 20114 -317.9 2062.6 2380.5 3184.9 1297.1 1887.8 20121 -297.9 2109.5 2407.4 3226.6 1313.7 1912.9 20122 -284.8 2159.2 2444.0 3271.2 1331.8 1939.4 20123 -277.8 2211.7 2489.5 3318.0 1350.5 1967.4 20124 -275.9 2266.9 2542.8 3359.5 1362.8 1996.7 20131 -277.9 2324.5 2602.4 3394.0 1366.9 2027.1 20132 -283.1 2384.3 2667.4 3446.7 1388.2 2058.5 20133 -290.8 2446.4 2737.1 3500.8 1410.2 2090.6 20134 -300.2 2510.5 2810.6 3556.0 1432.6 2123.4 20141 -310.6 2576.5 2887.1 3612.2 1455.4 2156.8 20142 -321.6 2644.3 2965.9 3669.1 1478.5 2190.7 20143 -332.5 2713.8 3046.3 3726.8 1501.9 2224.9 20144 -343.0 2785.0 3128.0 3784.9 1525.5 2259.4 20151 -352.7 2857.7 3210.4 3843.4 1549.3 2294.1 20152 -361.2 2931.9 3293.1 3902.2 1573.2 2329.0 20153 -368.2 3007.6 3375.8 3961.3 1597.2 2364.0 20154 -373.6 3084.7 3458.4 4020.6 1621.4 2399.2 20161 -377.3 3163.4 3540.7 4080.2 1645.6 2434.5 20162 -379.0 3243.6 3622.7 4140.0 1670.0 2470.0 20163 -378.9 3325.4 3704.3 4200.0 1694.5 2505.6 20164 -377.0 3408.8 3785.7 4260.4 1719.1 2541.3 20171 -373.3 3493.9 3867.1 4321.2 1743.9 2577.3 20172 -367.9 3580.7 3948.6 4382.4 1768.8 2613.5 20173 -360.9 3669.5 4030.4 4444.1 1794.0 2650.1 20174 -352.5 3760.2 4112.7 4506.3 1819.4 2686.9 20181 -342.8 3853.0 4195.7 4569.2 1845.1 2724.1 20182 -331.8 3947.9 4279.7 4632.7 1871.0 2761.7 20183 -319.6 4045.1 4364.7 4697.0 1897.2 2799.7 20184 -306.6 4144.6 4451.2 4762.1 1923.8 2838.2 20191 -292.7 4246.6 4539.3 4828.0 1950.7 2877.2 20192 -278.0 4351.2 4629.1 4894.8 1978.0 2916.8 20193 -262.6 4458.4 4720.9 4962.5 2005.7 2956.8 20194 -246.7 4568.3 4815.1 5031.3 2033.8 2997.5 20201 -230.5 4681.1 4911.6 5101.0 2062.3 3038.7 20202 -213.9 4796.8 5010.7 5171.8 2091.2 3080.6 20203 -197.1 4915.6 5112.7 5243.7 2120.6 3123.1 20204 -180.4 5037.5 5217.9 5316.8 2150.4 3166.3
Line 1 Gross domestic product Line 2 Personal consumption expenditures Line 3 Durable goods Line 4 Nondurable goods Line 5 Services Line 6 Gross private domestic investment Line 7 Fixed investment Line 8 Nonresidential Line 11 Residential Line 12 Change in private inventories Line 13 Net exports of goods and services Line 14 Exports Line 17 Imports Line 20 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment Line 21 Federal Line 24 State and local
NIPA Table 1.1.6
NIPA Table 1.1.6
US Model Forecasts Gross Domestic Product
Billions of 2005 Dollars
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Table 1.1.6 Quar. 1 2 3 4 5
20041 12127.7 8438.2 1031.0 1888.9 5518.3 20042 12213.9 8483.9 1038.3 1893.9 5551.7 20043 12303.6 8556.1 1058.7 1907.8 5589.6 20044 12410.3 8654.5 1076.1 1927.6 5650.8 20051 12534.1 8719.3 1083.3 1949.6 5686.4 20052 12587.6 8803.0 1113.6 1961.5 5727.9 20053 12683.1 8865.7 1126.7 1971.8 5767.2 20054 12748.7 8888.0 1098.4 1990.7 5798.9 20061 12915.9 8987.0 1142.3 2003.7 5841.0 20062 12962.4 9035.1 1139.4 2011.5 5884.2 20063 12966.0 9090.9 1152.1 2024.5 5914.3 20064 13060.6 9182.0 1167.9 2054.7 5959.4 20071 13089.3 9235.8 1181.2 2060.2 5994.4 20072 13194.2 9271.8 1194.5 2059.0 6018.3 20073 13268.4 9312.1 1205.7 2067.7 6038.7 20074 13363.5 9345.0 1212.9 2070.3 6061.8 20081 13339.2 9323.8 1178.7 2054.5 6090.6 20082 13359.0 9324.8 1170.0 2064.6 6090.2 20083 13223.6 9238.8 1133.2 2035.6 6070.0 20084 12993.7 9152.5 1063.9 2010.1 6078.5 20091 12832.7 9142.2 1076.6 2012.0 6053.6 20092 12810.0 9104.2 1068.2 2008.3 6027.7 20093 12860.8 9155.8 1118.3 2016.8 6020.7 20094 13019.1 9176.1 1115.1 2032.3 6028.7 20101 13138.9 9222.0 1138.9 2053.5 6029.6 20102 13194.9 9274.5 1157.8 2063.3 6053.4 20103 13260.7 9335.4 1175.2 2070.0 6090.2 20104 13285.9 9348.2 1168.1 2073.1 6106.9 20111 13373.3 9373.3 1169.7 2078.0 6125.6 20112 13496.6 9410.7 1178.4 2085.7 6146.6 20113 13649.2 9458.4 1193.0 2095.7 6169.7 20114 13796.6 9505.1 1206.0 2106.3 6192.8 20121 13951.3 9558.1 1223.8 2118.0 6216.4 20122 14112.8 9616.5 1244.8 2130.6 6241.1 20123 14275.5 9679.1 1266.7 2143.8 6268.7 20124 14428.6 9745.5 1287.1 2157.1 6301.3 20131 14563.0 9813.7 1305.4 2170.2 6338.1 20132 14700.5 9883.8 1322.9 2183.1 6377.9 20133 14837.7 9955.3 1339.8 2195.8 6419.8 20134 14970.6 10027.6 1355.8 2208.3 6463.5 20141 15098.1 10100.7 1372.0 2220.7 6507.9 20142 15220.5 10174.4 1388.1 2233.1 6553.2 20143 15338.2 10248.8 1403.8 2245.4 6599.6 20144 15452.1 10323.9 1418.2 2257.6 6648.1 20151 15562.7 10399.5 1432.9 2269.9 6696.7 20152 15670.5 10475.5 1447.7 2282.1 6745.7 20153 15776.3 10552.0 1461.9 2294.5 6795.6 20154 15880.8 10629.3 1474.9 2306.8 6847.5 20161 15984.5 10707.2 1488.5 2319.3 6899.4 20162 16087.8 10785.9 1502.4 2332.0 6951.4 20163 16191.4 10865.6 1516.3 2345.0 7004.3 20164 16296.2 10946.9 1529.1 2358.1 7059.8 20171 16402.1 11029.5 1542.7 2371.4 7115.4 20172 16509.4 11113.6 1556.6 2385.0 7172.0 20173 16618.5 11199.4 1570.2 2398.8 7230.3 20174 16729.5 11287.0 1582.7 2412.8 7291.5 20181 16842.2 11376.0 1596.0 2427.0 7353.0 20182 16956.5 11466.5 1609.7 2441.4 7415.4 20183 17072.7 11558.8 1623.1 2455.9 7479.8 20184 17191.5 11653.5 1634.6 2470.5 7548.4 20191 17312.2 11749.5 1647.3 2485.2 7617.0 20192 17434.6 11847.1 1660.8 2500.2 7686.1 20193 17558.9 11946.4 1674.2 2515.3 7756.9 20194 17686.1 12048.4 1685.6 2530.5 7832.3 20201 17815.2 12151.7 1698.4 2545.8 7907.5 20202 17946.1 12256.7 1711.8 2561.3 7983.7 20203 18079.2 12363.6 1724.6 2576.8 8062.2 20204 18215.5 12473.7 1735.0 2592.3 8146.5
Quar. 6 7 8 11 12
20041 1971.1 1918.7 1214.2 704.5 52.4 20042 2056.7 1978.0 1247.0 731.0 78.7 20043 2082.4 2019.7 1281.2 738.5 62.7 20044 2125.3 2053.7 1309.5 744.2 71.6 20051 2170.6 2079.2 1321.5 757.7 91.4 20052 2131.7 2116.2 1340.8 775.4 15.5 20053 2154.8 2143.0 1359.7 783.3 11.8 20054 2231.8 2150.8 1367.2 783.6 81.0 20061 2265.9 2200.1 1424.9 775.2 65.8 20062 2262.9 2190.4 1450.3 740.1 72.5 20063 2230.9 2163.4 1466.0 697.4 67.5 20064 2166.6 2134.8 1474.5 660.3 31.8 20071 2147.7 2130.4 1499.0 631.4 17.3 20072 2195.4 2150.5 1539.1 611.4 44.9 20073 2180.8 2144.7 1574.0 570.7 36.1 20074 2131.8 2119.2 1595.9 523.3 12.6 20081 2077.7 2085.9 1603.6 482.3 -8.2 20082 2040.8 2061.4 1597.0 464.4 -20.6 20083 1969.7 1997.1 1561.5 435.6 -27.4 20084 1764.6 1858.9 1464.2 394.7 -94.3 20091 1540.5 1666.3 1313.6 352.7 -125.8 20092 1460.4 1622.2 1288.3 333.9 -161.8 20093 1497.0 1625.2 1282.8 342.4 -128.2 20094 1583.3 1620.0 1278.3 341.7 -36.7 20101 1677.3 1633.2 1302.5 330.7 44.1 20102 1774.2 1705.4 1355.3 350.1 68.8 20103 1823.9 1708.4 1387.1 321.3 115.5 20104 1750.1 1687.0 1379.4 307.6 63.1 20111 1736.6 1696.2 1385.6 310.6 40.4 20112 1768.0 1732.2 1399.2 333.0 35.8 20113 1829.5 1788.0 1422.1 365.9 41.5 20114 1900.7 1843.5 1449.2 394.3 57.2 20121 1975.0 1912.1 1483.4 428.7 62.9 20122 2058.1 1990.3 1524.0 466.3 67.8 20123 2145.3 2072.5 1567.6 504.8 72.9 20124 2231.6 2154.0 1611.7 542.3 77.6 20131 2309.2 2229.5 1653.5 576.0 79.7 20132 2377.4 2303.9 1696.8 607.1 73.5 20133 2446.7 2375.6 1740.1 635.5 71.0 20134 2512.9 2442.9 1781.8 661.1 70.0 20141 2574.3 2505.7 1822.0 683.7 68.6 20142 2630.6 2564.1 1860.4 703.6 66.5 20143 2681.8 2617.7 1896.8 720.9 64.1 20144 2728.1 2666.5 1930.7 735.8 61.6 20151 2769.9 2710.7 1962.1 748.6 59.1 20152 2807.5 2750.6 1990.9 759.7 56.9 20153 2841.2 2786.4 2017.2 769.1 54.8 20154 2871.4 2818.4 2041.1 777.3 53.0 20161 2898.6 2847.0 2062.6 784.4 51.6 20162 2923.0 2872.6 2081.9 790.7 50.4 20163 2945.1 2895.5 2099.1 796.4 49.5 20164 2965.1 2916.2 2114.6 801.6 48.9 20171 2983.6 2935.0 2128.5 806.5 48.6 20172 3000.8 2952.1 2141.0 811.2 48.6 20173 3016.9 2968.0 2152.3 815.7 48.9 20174 3032.1 2982.9 2162.7 820.2 49.2 20181 3046.8 2997.0 2172.3 824.8 49.8 20182 3060.9 3010.4 2181.1 829.3 50.4 20183 3074.4 3023.4 2189.5 833.9 51.0 20184 3087.9 3036.3 2197.7 838.6 51.6 20191 3101.6 3049.1 2205.8 843.3 52.4 20192 3115.3 3062.0 2213.8 848.2 53.3 20193 3129.2 3075.1 2221.9 853.2 54.1 20194 3143.4 3088.7 2230.5 858.3 54.7 20201 3158.5 3102.9 2239.4 863.4 55.7 20202 3174.2 3117.6 2248.8 868.8 56.6 20203 3190.4 3133.0 2258.8 874.2 57.4 20204 3207.5 3149.4 2269.7 879.7 58.0
Quar. 13 14 17 20
20041 -632.5 1197.3 1829.8 2355.1 20042 -687.1 1216.0 1903.1 2363.6 20043 -705.6 1225.1 1930.7 2372.1 20044 -726.7 1253.0 1979.7 2357.6 20051 -714.8 1276.2 1991.0 2359.9 20052 -709.4 1303.5 2012.9 2362.4 20053 -721.3 1303.9 2025.2 2383.9 20054 -745.3 1336.7 2082.0 2373.3 20061 -732.5 1388.8 2121.3 2397.2 20062 -732.8 1412.1 2144.9 2399.1 20063 -756.5 1414.1 2170.6 2402.8 20064 -694.9 1473.2 2168.1 2409.5 20071 -696.3 1496.4 2192.7 2406.5 20072 -696.2 1521.3 2217.5 2426.7 20073 -666.6 1578.0 2244.6 2448.2 20074 -560.3 1622.1 2182.4 2455.5 20081 -529.8 1644.8 2174.6 2469.8 20082 -493.7 1696.7 2190.4 2490.4 20083 -514.8 1675.0 2189.8 2523.7 20084 -477.6 1574.6 2052.2 2533.7 20091 -389.2 1451.6 1840.8 2514.2 20092 -342.0 1447.9 1789.9 2553.0 20093 -390.7 1490.1 1880.8 2563.5 20094 -330.1 1573.5 1903.6 2554.8 20101 -338.3 1616.5 1954.8 2545.2 20102 -448.9 1652.2 2101.1 2570.6 20103 -514.9 1672.3 2187.2 2592.6 20104 -440.2 1712.6 2152.8 2604.1 20111 -373.4 1753.9 2127.3 2613.2 20112 -328.6 1783.8 2112.4 2622.7 20113 -294.3 1814.3 2108.6 2631.9 20114 -268.1 1845.2 2113.3 2635.2 20121 -250.0 1876.7 2126.7 2644.4 20122 -239.6 1908.7 2148.3 2654.2 20123 -236.2 1941.3 2177.5 2663.6 20124 -238.8 1974.4 2213.1 2666.6 20131 -245.7 2008.1 2253.8 2662.1 20132 -256.4 2042.3 2298.7 2672.0 20133 -270.0 2077.2 2347.2 2682.0 20134 -285.7 2112.6 2398.3 2692.0 20141 -302.7 2148.6 2451.4 2702.1 20142 -320.5 2185.3 2505.8 2712.3 20143 -338.5 2222.6 2561.1 2722.4 20144 -356.3 2260.5 2616.7 2732.7 20151 -373.3 2299.0 2672.4 2743.0 20152 -389.4 2338.3 2727.7 2753.3 20153 -404.3 2378.1 2782.4 2763.7 20154 -417.7 2418.7 2836.4 2774.1 20161 -429.6 2460.0 2889.6 2784.6 20162 -439.9 2501.9 2941.9 2795.2 20163 -448.7 2544.6 2993.3 2805.8 20164 -456.0 2588.0 3044.0 2816.4 20171 -461.9 2632.2 3094.1 2827.1 20172 -466.6 2677.1 3143.6 2837.9 20173 -470.2 2722.7 3192.9 2848.7 20174 -472.9 2769.2 3242.0 2859.5 20181 -474.8 2816.4 3291.2 2870.5 20182 -476.0 2864.5 3340.4 2881.4 20183 -476.7 2913.3 3390.0 2892.5 20184 -477.1 2963.0 3440.1 2903.6 20191 -477.3 3013.6 3490.9 2914.7 20192 -477.4 3065.0 3542.4 2925.9 20193 -477.5 3117.3 3594.8 2937.2 20194 -477.9 3170.4 3648.3 2948.5 20201 -478.6 3224.5 3703.1 2959.8 20202 -479.7 3279.5 3759.2 2971.3 20203 -481.3 3335.5 3816.7 2982.8 20204 -483.7 3392.4 3876.0 2994.3
Line 1 Gross domestic product Line 2 Personal consumption expenditures Line 3 Durable goods Line 4 Nondurable goods Line 5 Services Line 6 Gross private domestic investment Line 7 Fixed investment Line 8 Nonresidential Line 11 Residential Line 12 Change in private inventories Line 13 Net exports of goods and services Line 14 Exports Line 17 Imports Line 20 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment
Old NIPA Table 3.2
Old NIPA Table 3.2
US Model Forecasts Fed. Gov. Receipts and Expenditures
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Old Table 3.2 Quar. 1 2 6 9 13
20041 1904.6 768.8 226.4 100.5 793.5 20042 1950.3 788.8 243.2 100.6 802.0 20043 2006.3 812.7 262.6 101.6 813.0 20044 2036.5 826.7 269.0 101.9 822.0 20051 2190.6 894.9 333.8 103.7 840.5 20052 2218.3 919.3 326.7 107.9 845.3 20053 2264.8 946.1 333.6 106.8 859.0 20054 2326.8 967.0 369.8 104.6 865.7 20061 2431.6 1023.1 383.8 107.0 896.9 20062 2459.0 1034.7 396.1 107.4 899.8 20063 2502.8 1053.9 415.5 107.8 904.0 20064 2518.9 1088.0 384.6 106.1 917.8 20071 2593.4 1136.5 392.8 100.7 938.4 20072 2604.9 1155.1 384.0 101.0 940.1 20073 2596.0 1174.2 349.1 102.6 944.9 20074 2610.8 1196.4 325.4 103.0 957.8 20081 2587.4 1198.7 278.0 106.1 974.2 20082 2559.2 1183.7 262.0 109.9 973.1 20083 2508.1 1166.0 231.2 106.1 974.4 20084 2396.7 1119.1 157.4 101.8 967.8 20091 2173.3 912.8 154.9 93.4 948.0 20092 2295.0 1001.7 155.7 102.0 954.9 20093 2371.0 1074.0 184.4 100.9 953.5 20094 2423.8 1068.4 233.2 100.5 957.4 20101 2497.2 1071.2 297.1 103.1 970.6 20102 2533.7 1097.7 293.2 109.1 978.3 20103 2600.4 1123.5 321.3 111.9 984.6 20104 2619.8 1144.9 306.9 112.2 996.0 20111 2656.7 1169.3 304.6 112.8 1009.8 20112 2704.4 1197.2 306.5 113.5 1026.2 20113 2761.8 1228.9 311.4 114.5 1045.3 20114 2821.0 1261.6 315.5 115.6 1066.0 20121 2884.1 1295.7 320.2 116.8 1088.1 20122 2951.6 1331.9 325.7 118.2 1111.7 20123 3022.3 1369.8 331.4 119.7 1136.4 20124 3093.6 1408.4 336.2 121.4 1161.6 20131 3162.5 1446.6 339.2 123.2 1186.5 20132 3233.4 1485.3 343.5 125.0 1211.5 20133 3305.6 1524.5 348.2 126.9 1236.8 20134 3378.0 1563.9 352.8 128.9 1262.0 20141 3450.1 1603.4 357.1 130.9 1287.1 20142 3521.7 1642.9 361.1 132.9 1311.9 20143 3592.6 1682.2 365.0 135.0 1336.4 20144 3663.0 1721.3 368.7 137.1 1360.6 20151 3732.8 1760.2 372.3 139.2 1384.5 20152 3802.1 1799.1 375.8 141.3 1408.0 20153 3871.0 1837.8 379.3 143.5 1431.3 20154 3939.8 1876.6 382.8 145.6 1454.4 20161 4008.6 1915.4 386.4 147.8 1477.4 20162 4077.6 1954.4 389.9 150.0 1500.3 20163 4147.0 1993.7 393.6 152.2 1523.1 20164 4217.1 2033.3 397.6 154.4 1546.1 20171 4288.1 2073.5 401.7 156.6 1569.2 20172 4360.1 2114.3 406.1 158.9 1592.5 20173 4433.5 2155.7 410.7 161.3 1616.1 20174 4508.3 2197.8 415.7 163.6 1640.0 20181 4584.6 2240.8 420.9 166.0 1664.3 20182 4662.4 2284.6 426.4 168.5 1689.0 20183 4741.9 2329.3 432.1 171.0 1714.1 20184 4823.5 2375.0 438.4 173.5 1739.7 20191 4907.0 2421.7 445.0 176.2 1765.9 20192 4992.5 2469.5 451.8 178.8 1792.5 20193 5079.9 2518.4 459.0 181.5 1819.7 20194 5169.9 2568.4 466.7 184.3 1847.5 20201 5262.0 2619.7 474.7 187.1 1875.9 20202 5356.4 2672.3 483.1 190.0 1904.9 20203 5453.2 2726.1 491.8 193.0 1934.5 20204 5552.8 2781.3 501.2 196.1 1964.8
Quar . 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 25 29
20041 2314.1 706.4 1026.5 987.4 39.1 339.6 200.3 42.8 -409.5 20042 2334.8 717.7 1024.5 995.9 28.6 349.3 199.2 42.6 -384.5 20043 2367.8 732.5 1034.8 1004.8 30.0 347.8 207.8 44.9 -361.5 20044 2398.8 729.0 1045.9 1017.2 28.7 360.0 211.2 52.7 -362.3 20051 2479.6 756.9 1090.4 1045.7 44.7 356.4 216.7 59.2 -289.0 20052 2506.6 758.8 1087.5 1055.0 32.5 359.9 236.7 63.7 -288.3 20053 2552.3 780.6 1105.8 1069.4 36.4 362.4 237.5 66.0 -287.5 20054 2594.3 767.1 1128.5 1082.2 46.3 366.2 265.1 67.4 -267.5 20061 2638.8 810.4 1170.1 1138.5 31.6 354.6 246.4 57.3 -207.2 20062 2688.5 808.5 1199.8 1161.7 38.1 361.0 265.4 53.8 -229.5 20063 2718.4 813.1 1209.4 1170.2 39.2 365.1 278.4 52.4 -215.6 20064 2681.8 812.1 1208.5 1183.8 24.7 355.5 253.8 51.9 -162.9 20071 2795.1 822.8 1267.0 1216.9 50.1 377.3 275.4 52.6 -201.7 20072 2842.3 840.4 1257.3 1227.4 29.9 381.6 312.7 50.3 -237.4 20073 2861.3 862.0 1275.9 1239.3 36.6 382.1 293.6 47.7 -265.3 20074 2887.4 870.4 1302.9 1256.3 46.6 381.9 282.2 50.0 -276.6 20081 2964.1 901.9 1339.4 1291.0 48.4 388.8 283.2 50.8 -376.7 20082 3320.6 920.1 1668.0 1624.2 43.8 395.2 284.7 52.6 -761.4 20083 3154.7 954.2 1456.8 1416.1 40.7 395.4 294.6 53.7 -646.6 20084 3076.8 962.3 1434.4 1394.6 39.8 405.5 217.7 56.9 -680.1 20091 3176.5 958.1 1532.6 1487.8 44.8 443.2 182.9 59.7 -1003.2 20092 3632.0 989.0 1829.8 1770.5 59.3 503.1 249.3 60.8 -1337.0 20093 3727.9 999.7 1915.1 1849.3 65.8 490.9 250.8 71.4 -1356.9 20094 3734.4 1001.8 1928.5 1878.4 50.1 501.1 242.2 60.8 -1310.6 20101 3811.6 1017.3 1973.3 1907.6 65.7 514.6 247.2 59.2 -1314.4 20102 3888.3 1038.5 1994.6 1937.5 57.1 525.0 269.6 60.6 -1354.6 20103 3953.5 1061.5 2027.3 1968.9 58.4 539.3 263.5 61.9 -1353.1 20104 3671.3 1074.0 1773.4 1714.4 58.9 474.5 287.0 62.5 -1051.6 20111 3727.7 1084.6 1790.2 1730.7 59.5 479.2 310.6 63.1 -1071.0 20112 3787.3 1096.5 1808.6 1748.4 60.2 484.4 334.1 63.8 -1083.0 20113 3849.5 1108.9 1828.6 1767.7 60.9 489.9 357.6 64.5 -1087.7 20114 3809.7 1115.5 1756.6 1695.0 61.6 496.0 376.2 65.3 -988.7 20121 3868.8 1129.7 1779.7 1717.3 62.4 502.6 390.7 66.2 -984.8 20122 3931.3 1145.3 1804.4 1741.1 63.3 509.6 404.9 67.1 -979.7 20123 3996.3 1161.2 1830.8 1766.6 64.2 517.0 419.1 68.1 -974.0 20124 4056.5 1170.6 1858.3 1793.1 65.2 525.0 433.5 69.1 -962.9 20131 4099.2 1171.7 1876.0 1809.8 66.3 533.3 447.9 70.2 -936.6 20132 4172.4 1189.8 1906.5 1839.1 67.3 542.0 462.7 71.4 -938.9 20133 4247.9 1208.5 1938.0 1869.5 68.4 550.9 478.0 72.5 -942.3 20134 4325.5 1227.5 1970.4 1900.8 69.6 560.1 493.7 73.8 -947.5 20141 4405.0 1246.8 2003.6 1932.8 70.8 569.6 510.1 75.0 -954.9 20142 4486.2 1266.4 2037.4 1965.5 72.0 579.2 526.9 76.3 -964.5 20143 4569.0 1286.3 2071.8 1998.7 73.2 589.0 544.4 77.6 -976.3 20144 4653.1 1306.2 2106.7 2032.3 74.4 598.9 562.3 78.9 -990.1 20151 4738.3 1326.4 2142.0 2066.4 75.6 608.9 580.9 80.2 -1005.5 20152 4824.6 1346.6 2177.6 2100.7 76.9 619.0 599.9 81.5 -1022.5 20153 4911.9 1366.9 2213.6 2135.4 78.2 629.3 619.4 82.9 -1040.9 20154 5000.2 1387.2 2249.8 2170.3 79.5 639.6 639.4 84.2 -1060.3 20161 5089.2 1407.7 2286.3 2205.5 80.7 649.9 659.7 85.6 -1080.6 20162 5179.0 1428.2 2323.0 2240.9 82.0 660.4 680.5 87.0 -1101.5 20163 5269.7 1448.9 2359.9 2276.6 83.3 670.9 701.7 88.3 -1122.7 20164 5361.2 1469.6 2397.2 2312.6 84.7 681.5 723.2 89.7 -1144.1 20171 5453.5 1490.5 2434.8 2348.8 86.0 692.2 744.9 91.1 -1165.5 20172 5546.8 1511.5 2472.8 2385.4 87.3 702.9 767.0 92.6 -1186.6 20173 5641.0 1532.7 2511.1 2422.4 88.7 713.8 789.4 94.0 -1207.5 20174 5736.2 1554.0 2549.9 2459.9 90.1 724.9 812.0 95.5 -1227.9 20181 5832.5 1575.6 2589.2 2497.7 91.4 736.0 834.8 96.9 -1247.9 20182 5929.9 1597.4 2628.9 2536.1 92.8 747.3 857.9 98.4 -1267.5 20183 6028.5 1619.4 2669.2 2574.9 94.3 758.8 881.2 99.9 -1286.6 20184 6128.5 1641.8 2710.1 2614.4 95.7 770.4 904.7 101.4 -1304.9 20191 6229.7 1664.4 2751.7 2654.5 97.2 782.2 928.4 103.0 -1322.6 20192 6332.3 1687.3 2793.8 2695.1 98.7 794.2 952.4 104.6 -1339.8 20193 6436.3 1710.5 2836.6 2736.5 100.2 806.4 976.6 106.2 -1356.3 20194 6541.9 1734.0 2880.2 2778.5 101.7 818.8 1001.1 107.8 -1372.1 20201 6649.0 1757.9 2924.5 2821.2 103.3 831.4 1025.8 109.5 -1387.0 20202 6757.8 1782.1 2969.6 2864.7 104.9 844.2 1050.7 111.2 -1401.4 20203 6868.2 1806.8 3015.4 2908.9 106.5 857.2 1076.0 112.9 -1415.0 20204 6980.5 1831.7 3062.1 2954.0 108.1 870.5 1101.5 114.6 -1427.7
Line 1 Receipts Line 2 Personal tax and nontax receipts Line 6 Corporate profit tax accruals Line 9 Indirect business tax and nontax accruals Line 13 Contributions for social insurance Line 14 Current expenditures Line 15 Consumption expenditures Line 16 Transfer payments (net) Line 17 To persons Line 18 To rest of the World (net) Line 19 Grants-in-aid to state and local governments Line 20 Net interest paid Line 25 Subsidies less current surplus of government enterprises Line 29 NIPA surplus(+) or deficit(-)
Old NIPA Table 3.3
Old NIPA Table 3.3
US Model Forecasts S&L Gov. Receipts and Expenditures
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Old Table 3.3 Quar. 1 2 6 7 11 12
20041 1436.6 240.5 37.8 758.1 23.0 339.6 20042 1460.0 237.6 40.8 770.1 23.9 349.3 20043 1488.5 252.0 43.9 781.6 24.5 347.8 20044 1533.2 264.3 44.3 800.5 24.8 360.0 20051 1562.5 269.3 55.3 818.1 25.1 356.4 20052 1583.6 273.0 53.0 834.2 25.1 359.9 20053 1606.9 277.9 53.3 849.9 24.8 362.4 20054 1636.8 286.7 58.2 862.4 24.1 366.2 20061 1657.3 298.4 59.6 882.1 23.1 354.6 20062 1683.3 305.5 60.2 894.1 22.1 361.0 20063 1691.7 300.4 61.6 902.1 21.3 365.1 20064 1691.0 305.5 55.1 912.5 20.6 355.5 20071 1752.2 322.3 59.1 931.4 19.7 377.3 20072 1768.7 325.3 59.3 940.6 18.9 381.6 20073 1771.4 323.3 56.2 947.3 18.5 382.1 20074 1781.2 321.6 56.5 957.4 18.6 381.9 20081 1801.1 337.1 50.3 958.2 19.0 388.8 20082 1830.0 347.4 52.1 967.1 19.4 395.2 20083 1822.7 333.4 54.3 969.8 19.9 395.4 20084 1790.2 323.8 35.2 954.4 20.5 405.5 20091 1803.6 300.6 43.1 943.5 21.0 443.2 20092 1822.7 264.7 44.4 936.6 21.5 503.1 20093 1850.8 290.0 48.7 945.9 21.8 490.9 20094 1885.8 293.8 61.3 953.0 22.1 501.1 20101 1926.9 291.5 82.0 960.8 22.3 514.6 20102 1937.8 280.6 88.1 964.1 22.4 525.0 20103 1975.9 292.0 94.4 969.2 22.5 539.3 20104 1915.1 296.7 90.0 972.1 22.7 474.5 20111 1929.9 302.1 89.3 976.8 22.9 479.2 20112 1949.2 308.1 89.8 983.4 23.2 484.4 20113 1972.6 315.0 91.3 991.9 23.4 489.9 20114 1997.4 322.2 92.5 1001.2 23.7 496.0 20121 2024.6 329.6 93.9 1011.9 24.1 502.6 20122 2054.3 337.5 95.5 1023.9 24.4 509.6 20123 2086.3 345.8 97.2 1037.2 24.7 517.0 20124 2119.8 354.3 98.6 1051.6 25.1 525.0 20131 2154.1 362.6 99.5 1066.8 25.5 533.3 20132 2189.9 371.2 100.7 1082.7 25.9 542.0 20133 2226.9 379.8 102.1 1099.3 26.4 550.9 20134 2264.8 388.5 103.4 1116.3 26.8 560.1 20141 2303.1 397.2 104.6 1133.6 27.3 569.6 20142 2341.9 405.9 105.8 1151.3 27.7 579.2 20143 2381.1 414.5 106.9 1169.2 28.2 589.0 20144 2420.6 423.1 108.0 1187.3 28.7 598.9 20151 2460.2 431.7 109.1 1205.6 29.1 608.9 20152 2500.0 440.3 110.1 1224.0 29.6 619.0 20153 2540.1 448.8 111.0 1242.5 30.1 629.3 20154 2580.3 457.3 112.1 1261.2 30.6 639.6 20161 2620.8 465.9 113.1 1279.9 31.1 649.9 20162 2661.5 474.4 114.1 1298.8 31.6 660.4 20163 2702.5 483.0 115.2 1317.9 32.1 670.9 20164 2744.1 491.7 116.3 1337.2 32.6 681.5 20171 2786.1 500.5 117.5 1356.8 33.1 692.2 20172 2828.7 509.3 118.8 1376.6 33.6 702.9 20173 2872.0 518.3 120.1 1396.7 34.2 713.8 20174 2916.1 527.5 121.5 1417.3 34.7 724.9 20181 2960.8 536.8 123.1 1438.1 35.2 736.0 20182 3006.3 546.2 124.6 1459.3 35.8 747.3 20183 3052.7 555.9 126.3 1480.9 36.3 758.8 20184 3100.2 565.7 128.2 1503.1 36.9 770.4 20191 3148.5 575.7 130.1 1525.7 37.4 782.2 20192 3197.8 586.0 132.1 1548.7 38.0 794.2 20193 3248.1 596.4 134.2 1572.2 38.6 806.4 20194 3299.7 607.1 136.4 1596.3 39.2 818.8 20201 3352.3 618.0 138.8 1620.9 39.8 831.4 20202 3406.0 629.2 141.2 1646.0 40.4 844.2 20203 3460.9 640.6 143.8 1671.6 41.0 857.2 20204 3517.5 652.3 146.6 1698.1 41.7 870.5
Quar. 13 14 15 16 19 20 23 24
20041 1459.4 1116.8 323.0 21.1 -1.7 -1.5 0.0 -22.8 20042 1480.9 1129.1 332.7 19.9 -1.8 -0.8 0.0 -20.9 20043 1492.1 1144.0 330.0 18.3 -1.9 -0.2 0.0 -3.6 20044 1519.5 1166.3 336.4 16.5 -2.6 0.3 0.0 13.7 20051 1537.4 1182.0 341.7 14.2 -1.9 -0.5 0.0 25.1 20052 1564.7 1198.4 353.9 12.0 -2.1 0.4 0.0 18.9 20053 1581.5 1222.9 348.2 9.8 -2.1 0.6 0.0 25.4 20054 1602.3 1244.8 349.2 7.5 -2.1 0.8 0.0 34.5 20061 1594.9 1254.5 334.2 5.5 -2.2 0.7 0.0 62.4 20062 1620.1 1274.6 340.7 3.3 -2.3 1.5 0.0 63.2 20063 1649.4 1292.7 353.0 1.7 -2.4 2.0 0.0 42.3 20064 1655.1 1307.6 346.8 -2.0 -2.4 2.7 0.0 35.9 20071 1722.4 1337.8 378.0 -0.9 -2.4 7.5 0.0 29.8 20072 1739.0 1360.6 360.2 -0.8 -2.3 19.0 0.0 29.7 20073 1761.4 1376.2 365.5 0.5 -2.4 19.2 0.0 10.0 20074 1801.8 1401.0 378.7 3.0 -2.4 19.1 0.0 -20.6 20081 1830.3 1427.8 379.3 6.3 -2.5 16.9 0.0 -29.2 20082 1863.7 1455.0 383.8 8.7 -2.4 16.2 0.0 -33.7 20083 1887.7 1474.2 388.2 9.9 -2.5 15.4 0.0 -65.0 20084 1852.0 1435.7 390.5 10.2 -2.6 15.6 0.0 -61.8 20091 1845.3 1415.7 406.4 10.3 -2.8 12.9 0.0 -41.7 20092 1856.4 1424.0 413.4 8.4 -2.4 10.6 0.0 -33.7 20093 1870.0 1425.6 425.6 9.4 -2.8 9.4 0.0 -19.2 20094 1872.0 1432.2 422.2 8.7 -2.9 8.9 0.0 13.8 20101 1898.2 1447.4 430.8 9.7 -3.0 10.3 0.0 28.7 20102 1922.0 1446.7 452.5 11.8 -2.9 11.0 0.0 15.8 20103 1923.8 1442.0 457.9 13.1 -2.8 10.8 0.0 52.1 20104 1937.4 1458.2 455.1 13.2 -2.8 10.9 0.0 -22.3 20111 1952.8 1475.5 452.9 13.4 -2.9 11.0 0.0 -22.8 20112 1969.8 1493.8 451.3 13.5 -2.9 11.1 0.0 -20.5 20113 1988.3 1513.5 449.8 13.7 -2.9 11.3 0.0 -15.7 20114 2008.5 1534.4 449.0 13.8 -3.0 11.4 0.0 -11.2 20121 2030.7 1556.5 448.7 14.0 -3.0 11.5 0.0 -6.1 20122 2054.8 1579.8 449.1 14.2 -3.0 11.7 0.0 -0.5 20123 2080.9 1604.4 450.2 14.4 -3.1 11.9 0.0 5.4 20124 2108.8 1629.9 452.3 14.6 -3.1 12.1 0.0 11.0 20131 2138.8 1656.3 455.4 14.9 -3.2 12.3 0.0 15.3 20132 2170.6 1683.5 459.5 15.1 -3.2 12.5 0.0 19.4 20133 2203.8 1711.3 464.5 15.4 -3.3 12.7 0.0 23.1 20134 2238.4 1739.6 470.3 15.6 -3.3 12.9 0.0 26.4 20141 2274.1 1768.4 476.7 15.9 -3.4 13.1 0.0 29.0 20142 2310.9 1797.7 483.8 16.1 -3.4 13.3 0.0 31.0 20143 2348.6 1827.2 491.5 16.4 -3.5 13.5 0.0 32.5 20144 2387.1 1857.0 499.7 16.7 -3.6 13.8 0.0 33.5 20151 2426.2 1886.9 508.3 17.0 -3.6 14.0 0.0 34.0 20152 2465.9 1917.1 517.4 17.3 -3.7 14.2 0.0 34.1 20153 2506.2 1947.4 526.8 17.5 -3.7 14.5 0.0 33.9 20154 2546.8 1977.8 536.5 17.8 -3.8 14.7 0.0 33.5 20161 2587.9 2008.4 546.4 18.1 -3.9 14.9 0.0 32.9 20162 2629.2 2039.1 556.5 18.4 -3.9 15.2 0.0 32.3 20163 2670.9 2070.0 566.8 18.7 -4.0 15.4 0.0 31.6 20164 2713.0 2101.1 577.3 19.0 -4.1 15.7 0.0 31.2 20171 2755.3 2132.3 587.8 19.3 -4.1 15.9 0.0 30.9 20172 2797.9 2163.8 598.4 19.6 -4.2 16.1 0.0 30.8 20173 2840.9 2195.6 609.0 19.9 -4.3 16.4 0.0 31.0 20174 2884.3 2227.7 619.8 20.2 -4.3 16.7 0.0 31.7 20181 2928.1 2260.1 630.6 20.5 -4.4 16.9 0.0 32.7 20182 2972.3 2292.9 641.4 20.8 -4.5 17.2 0.0 34.0 20183 3017.0 2326.1 652.4 21.1 -4.5 17.4 0.0 35.6 20184 3062.2 2359.6 663.4 21.5 -4.6 17.7 0.0 37.9 20191 3108.0 2393.7 674.6 21.8 -4.7 18.0 0.0 40.5 20192 3154.3 2428.2 685.8 22.1 -4.7 18.2 0.0 43.4 20193 3201.3 2463.2 697.1 22.5 -4.8 18.5 0.0 46.8 20194 3248.9 2498.7 708.6 22.8 -4.9 18.8 0.0 50.8 20201 3297.2 2534.8 720.2 23.2 -5.0 19.1 0.0 55.1 20202 3346.2 2571.4 731.9 23.5 -5.0 19.4 0.0 59.8 20203 3396.0 2608.6 743.8 23.9 -5.1 19.7 0.0 65.0 20204 3446.5 2646.4 755.8 24.3 -5.2 20.0 0.0 71.0
Line 1 Receipts Line 2 Personal tax and nontax receipts Line 6 Corporate profit tax accruals Line 7 Indirect business tax and nontax accruals Line 11 Contributions for social insurance Line 12 Federal grants-in-aid Line 13 Current expenditures Line 14 Consumption expenditures Line 15 Transfer payments to persons Line 16 Net interest paid Line 19 Less: Dividends received by government Line 20 Subsidies less current surplus of government enterprises Line 23 Less: Wage accruals less disbursements Line 24 NIPA surplus(+) or deficit(-)
NIPA Table 1.1.4
NIPA Table 1.1.4
US Model Forecasts of Price Indexes for GDP
Index numbers, 2005=100
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Table 1.1.4 Quar. 1 2 3 4 5
20041 95.6 96.1 101.4 94.7 95.5 20042 96.4 96.8 101.3 95.6 96.3 20043 97.1 97.4 100.6 96.2 97.2 20044 97.9 98.2 100.7 98.0 97.7 20051 98.8 98.7 100.5 97.9 98.7 20052 99.4 99.4 100.4 98.4 99.5 20053 100.5 100.5 99.6 101.5 100.3 20054 101.3 101.4 99.4 102.2 101.5 20061 102.1 101.8 99.1 102.2 102.2 20062 103.0 102.6 98.7 103.5 103.0 20063 103.8 103.3 98.3 104.6 103.8 20064 104.2 103.3 97.8 102.5 104.6 20071 105.3 104.3 97.3 104.1 105.7 20072 106.2 105.2 97.0 106.1 106.5 20073 106.7 105.8 96.5 106.7 107.3 20074 106.9 106.9 96.1 109.1 108.3 20081 107.4 108.0 96.0 111.2 109.2 20082 108.3 109.2 95.5 113.4 110.4 20083 109.5 110.4 95.3 116.4 111.2 20084 109.2 108.9 94.5 108.9 111.4 20091 109.5 108.4 94.0 106.7 111.6 20092 109.6 109.0 94.1 108.1 111.9 20093 109.7 109.7 93.5 110.6 112.4 20094 109.7 110.4 93.6 111.6 113.1 20101 110.0 110.9 93.1 112.9 113.6 20102 110.5 110.9 92.8 111.6 114.1 20103 111.1 111.2 92.2 112.3 114.4 20104 111.3 111.3 92.4 112.5 114.6 20111 111.6 111.6 92.6 112.7 114.8 20112 111.9 111.9 92.8 113.0 115.1 20113 112.4 112.3 93.2 113.5 115.6 20114 113.0 112.8 93.6 114.0 116.1 20121 113.6 113.3 94.1 114.6 116.7 20122 114.3 114.0 94.7 115.3 117.4 20123 115.2 114.7 95.3 116.0 118.2 20124 116.1 115.5 96.0 116.9 119.1 20131 117.0 116.4 96.7 117.8 120.0 20132 118.1 117.3 97.5 118.7 120.9 20133 119.1 118.2 98.3 119.7 121.9 20134 120.2 119.2 99.1 120.7 122.9 20141 121.4 120.2 99.9 121.7 123.9 20142 122.5 121.1 100.7 122.7 124.9 20143 123.7 122.1 101.6 123.7 126.0 20144 124.8 123.1 102.4 124.7 127.0 20151 126.0 124.1 103.2 125.7 128.0 20152 127.1 125.1 104.1 126.7 129.1 20153 128.3 126.1 104.9 127.7 130.1 20154 129.4 127.0 105.7 128.7 131.1 20161 130.5 128.0 106.5 129.7 132.1 20162 131.7 128.9 107.3 130.6 133.0 20163 132.8 129.9 108.1 131.6 134.0 20164 133.9 130.8 108.8 132.5 135.0 20171 135.0 131.7 109.6 133.4 135.9 20172 136.1 132.6 110.4 134.4 136.9 20173 137.2 133.5 111.1 135.3 137.8 20174 138.3 134.4 111.9 136.2 138.7 20181 139.3 135.3 112.6 137.1 139.7 20182 140.4 136.3 113.4 138.1 140.6 20183 141.5 137.2 114.2 139.0 141.6 20184 142.7 138.1 114.9 139.9 142.5 20191 143.8 139.0 115.7 140.9 143.5 20192 144.9 140.0 116.5 141.8 144.4 20193 146.0 140.9 117.2 142.8 145.4 20194 147.2 141.9 118.0 143.7 146.4 20201 148.4 142.8 118.8 144.7 147.4 20202 149.5 143.8 119.6 145.7 148.4 20203 150.7 144.8 120.4 146.6 149.4 20204 151.9 145.8 121.3 147.6 150.4
Quar. 7 8 11 14 17 20
20041 93.9 95.9 90.5 95.1 92.1 92.8 20042 95.0 96.6 92.4 96.3 93.4 93.9 20043 96.1 97.1 94.3 96.8 94.3 95.0 20044 97.0 97.7 95.8 97.8 96.6 96.4 20051 98.1 98.8 97.0 98.9 97.4 98.2 20052 99.2 99.6 98.6 99.6 98.8 99.2 20053 100.6 100.2 101.2 100.3 100.8 100.7 20054 102.0 101.4 103.1 101.1 102.8 101.9 20061 103.2 102.3 104.9 101.8 103.2 103.2 20062 104.1 103.1 106.0 103.1 104.3 104.6 20063 104.7 103.9 106.4 104.4 105.1 105.4 20064 105.6 104.9 107.2 104.4 103.9 106.1 20071 106.1 105.4 107.8 105.3 104.9 108.2 20072 106.1 105.6 107.5 106.4 106.0 109.4 20073 106.0 105.5 107.5 107.1 106.7 110.2 20074 106.1 105.6 107.6 108.6 112.6 111.5 20081 106.1 105.7 107.2 110.6 117.6 113.5 20082 106.4 106.3 106.9 113.5 122.2 115.2 20083 107.2 107.5 106.2 115.1 122.9 116.3 20084 107.8 108.6 104.8 108.0 111.6 114.7 20091 107.0 107.7 104.1 104.8 103.0 114.2 20092 105.4 106.1 102.5 105.0 103.7 114.3 20093 104.1 104.8 101.6 106.2 105.8 114.4 20094 103.8 104.1 102.7 107.4 111.2 114.9 20101 103.5 103.6 102.9 108.7 114.5 116.1 20102 103.3 103.6 102.0 110.0 112.2 116.3 20103 103.4 103.7 101.9 110.2 109.9 116.4 20104 103.5 103.9 102.0 110.3 110.4 117.2 20111 103.7 104.1 102.3 110.5 111.0 117.9 20112 104.0 104.4 102.6 110.8 111.5 118.8 20113 104.4 104.8 102.9 111.3 112.1 119.8 20114 104.8 105.2 103.4 111.8 112.6 120.9 20121 105.4 105.8 104.0 112.4 113.2 122.0 20122 106.0 106.4 104.6 113.1 113.8 123.2 20123 106.7 107.1 105.3 113.9 114.3 124.6 20124 107.4 107.9 106.0 114.8 114.9 126.0 20131 108.2 108.7 106.8 115.8 115.5 127.5 20132 109.1 109.6 107.7 116.7 116.0 129.0 20133 110.0 110.5 108.6 117.8 116.6 130.5 20134 110.9 111.4 109.5 118.8 117.2 132.1 20141 111.8 112.3 110.4 119.9 117.8 133.7 20142 112.7 113.3 111.3 121.0 118.4 135.3 20143 113.7 114.2 112.2 122.1 118.9 136.9 20144 114.6 115.1 113.1 123.2 119.5 138.5 20151 115.5 116.1 114.0 124.3 120.1 140.1 20152 116.4 117.0 115.0 125.4 120.7 141.7 20153 117.3 117.9 115.9 126.5 121.3 143.3 20154 118.2 118.8 116.7 127.5 121.9 144.9 20161 119.1 119.7 117.6 128.6 122.5 146.5 20162 120.0 120.6 118.5 129.6 123.1 148.1 20163 120.9 121.5 119.4 130.7 123.8 149.7 20164 121.8 122.3 120.2 131.7 124.4 151.3 20171 122.6 123.2 121.1 132.7 125.0 152.8 20172 123.5 124.1 121.9 133.8 125.6 154.4 20173 124.3 124.9 122.7 134.8 126.2 156.0 20174 125.2 125.8 123.6 135.8 126.9 157.6 20181 126.0 126.6 124.4 136.8 127.5 159.2 20182 126.9 127.5 125.3 137.8 128.1 160.8 20183 127.7 128.3 126.1 138.8 128.8 162.4 20184 128.6 129.2 126.9 139.9 129.4 164.0 20191 129.4 130.1 127.8 140.9 130.0 165.6 20192 130.3 130.9 128.6 142.0 130.7 167.3 20193 131.2 131.8 129.5 143.0 131.3 169.0 20194 132.0 132.7 130.4 144.1 132.0 170.6 20201 132.9 133.6 131.3 145.2 132.6 172.3 20202 133.8 134.5 132.1 146.3 133.3 174.1 20203 134.7 135.4 133.0 147.4 134.0 175.8 20204 135.6 136.3 133.9 148.5 134.6 177.6
Line 1 Gross domestic product Line 2 Personal consumption expenditures Line 3 Durable goods Line 4 Nondurable goods Line 5 Services Line 7 Fixed investment Line 8 Nonresidential Line 11 Residential Line 14 Exports of goods and services Line 17 Imports of goods and services Line 20 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment