US Forecast: July 31, 2011
Forecast Period

2011:3--2020:4 (38 quarters)

Data

The forecast is based on the national income and product accounts (NIPA) data that were released on July 29, 2011.

The Latest Version of the US Model

For purposes of this forecast the US model has been reestimated through 2011:2. These estimates and the complete specification of the model are presented in Appendix A: The US Model: July 31, 2011, which is an update of Appendix A in Fair (2004).

Beginning with the forecast dated October 31, 2005, a few specification changes have been made to the model from the version in Fair (2004). These are explained in Changes to the US Model Since 2004.

Baseline Assumptions Behind the Forecast

The policy assumptions behind the forecast are in two parts. The first part ignores the stimulus bill. It produces what will be called "baseline" assumptions. The second part then adds the stimulus measures to the baseline assumptions. Consider first the baseline assumptions. They are as follows. The table below gives the growth rates that were assumed for the key exogenous variables in the model along with the actual growth rates between 1989:4 and 2007:4 (before the stimulus measures in 2008 and 2009).

              Growth Rates (annual rates)

           Baseline
           Forecast              Actual     
          Assumptions         2007:4-1989:4  

TRGHQ         4.0                  3.9       
COG           3.0                  2.4       
JG            1.0                 -0.7       
TRGSQ         4.0                  5.2       
TRSHQ         4.0                  5.6       
COS           0.5                  3.7       
JS            1.0                  1.5       
EX            7.0                  6.0
PIM           1.5                  1.2

The first seven variables are the main government policy variables in the model aside from tax rates. TRGHQ is real federal government transfer payments to households, COG is real federal government purchases of goods, JG is federal government civilian employment, TRGSQ is real federal government transfer payments to state and local governments, TRSHQ is real state and local government transfer payments to households, COS is real state and local government purchases of goods, JS is state and local government employment, EX is real exports, and PIM is the import price deflator.

All tax rates for the baseline assumptions were taken to remain unchanged from their 2011:2 values.

The values for COG were generated off of a base value of $521.9 billion in 2011:2. This base value is $28.8 billion lower that the actual value in 2011:2. This difference is my estimate of the effect of the stimulus bill on COG in 2011:2. The values for TRGHQ were generated off of a base value of $1492.6 billioni in 2011:2. This base value is $93.6 billion lower than the actual value in 2011:2. This difference is my estimate of the effect of the stimulus bill on TRGHQ in 2011:2.

The above assumptions for state and local governments result in roughly balanced budgets over time in the forecast. For the federal government everything is business as usual---no stimulus, etc. Again, this is for the baseline assumptions.

No assumption is needed about monetary policy for the forecast because monetary policy is endogenous. Monetary policy is determined by equation 30, an estimated interest rate reaction function or rule.

Stimulus Assumptions Behind the Forecast

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) issued a report on March 2, 2009, which analyzed the stimulus bill ("American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009," Public Law 111-5). The numbers that I have used for the present forecast are based (roughly) on the numbers in this report.

The stimulus bill has tax cuts, transfer payment increases, and increases in government purchases of goods and services. Some of the transfers are to state and local governments and some are directly to households. In the model it makes no difference whether the federal government makes transfer payments directly to households (variable TRGHQ) or makes them to state and local governments (variable TRGSQ) if the state and local governments in turn pass on the transfer payments to households (variable TRSHQ). To keep matters simple in the present forecast, all transfer payment increases are put into TRGHQ. Again, it would not matter if instead TRGSQ was increased and then TRSHQ increased by the same amount. In addition, tax cuts are taken to be increases in TRGHQ rather than decreases in the personal income tax rate D1G. Most of the tax cuts do not involve cutting tax rates, and so it seems better to put them in TRGHQ. All increases in purchases of goods and services are put in COG, federal government purchases of goods. Therefore, only two variables are changed for the stimulus measures, TRGHQ and COG. Consistent with this treatment, in the actual data for 2009:2, $152.0 billion was moved from THG to TRGH. Similarly, in the actual data for 2009:3, $239.0 billion was moved from THG to TRGH; in the actual data for 2009:4, $249.0 billion was moved from THG to TRGH; in the actual data for 2010:1, $231.0 billion was moved from THG to TRGH; in the actual data for 2010:2, $256 billion was moved from THG to TRGH, in the actual data for 2010:3, $266 billion was moved from THG to TRGH, in the actual data for 2010:4, $15 billion was moved from THG to TRGH, in the actual data for 2011:1, $53 billion was moved from THG to TRGH, and in the actual data for 2011:2, $76 billion was moved from THG to TRGH. These nine values are my estimates of how much the stimulus bill affected THG in the eight quarters.

The timing of expenditures is a major issue in trying to capture the effects of any stimulus package. I have roughly followed the CBO timing for the present experiment. I have assumed that TRGHQ is $93.6 billion larger in fiscal 2011, $10.4 billion larger in fiscal 2012, and $10.0 billion larger (at an annual rate) in 2012:4. I have roughly spread these increases evenly within the four quarters of the fiscal year. (Remember that TRGHQ is in real terms, so these estimates are in 2005 dollars.) For government spending on goods (COG) I have assumed it to be $28.8 billion larger is fiscal 2011, $21.6 billion larger in fiscal 2012, and $14.4 billion larger at an annual rate in 2012:4. (Remember that COG is also in real terms.)

The following table lists the additions by quarter that were made to TRGHQ and COG from their baseline values. The changes are at annual rates.

        TRGHQ    COG

2011:3   93.6    28.4
2011:4   10.4    22.0
2012:1   10.4    21.6
2012:2   10.4    21.6
2012:3   10.4    21.2
2012:4   10.0    14.4

The tax bill that was passed at the end of 2010 lowered the employee payroll tax rate from 6.2 to 4.2 percent for 2011. This is roughly a one-third drop. The employee payroll tax rate in the model is variable D4G, and for the remaining two quarters of 2011 it was lowered by about a third from its 2010:4 value. Then from 2012:1 on it was raised back to its 2010:4 value. No changes from previous forecasts were needed to account for the extension of the Bush tax cuts because it was always assumed that the tax cuts would be extended.

Regarding federal government spending on the bailout, this spending is in variable CTGB, capital transfers from the federal government to financial business. (This variable is in nominal terms.) Values of CTGB are the government's estimate of the eventual cost to the federal government of the bailout activity. The value for 2008:4 is $270.6 billion, the value for 2009:1 is $219.3 billion, the value for 2009:2 is $130.0 billion, the value for 2009:3 is $37.4 billion, the value for 2009:4 is $69.1 billion, the value for 2010:1 is $55.4 billion, the value for 2010:2 is $53.5 billion, the value for 2010:3 is $4.4 billion, the value for 2010:4 is $6.0 billion, the value for 2011:1 is $5.7 billion, and the value for 2011:2 is $58.7 billion (all at annual rates). For the forecast all future values of CTGB were taken to be zero.

No Adjustments for the Debt Ceiling Bill

No attempt was made to account for proposed future fiscal policy changes that are in the debt ceiling bill. Most of the spending cuts do not begin to occur until 2014, and as of now (July 31, 2011) it is unclear what will be cut and by how much. The present forecast is thus a forecast conditional on no future spending cuts and tax increases. It is a baseline forecast from which experiments can be run regarding spending cuts and tax increases.

The Forecast

Selected forecast results are present in Tables F1 through F4. If you want more detail, click "Solve current version" after "US Model," create a data set, and then go immediately to "Examine the results without solving the model." You can then examine any variable in the model.

Real GDP Growth and the Unemployment Rate: The forecast has real GDP growing at 3.0 percent in 2011:3 and 5.4 percent in 2011:4. The growth rate is around 4.5 percent in 2012. (All growth rates in this memo are at annual rates.) The unemployment rate falls to 8.6 percent by the end of 2011 and to 7.7 percent by the end of 2012. The jobs variable, JF, shows jobs rising by 3.6 million between 2011:3 and 2012:4.

Inflation: Inflation as measured by the growth of the GDP deflator (GDPD) rises to 3.6 percent by the end of 2011 and to 3.8 percent by the end of 2012.

Monetary Policy: The estimated interest rate rule (equation 30) is predicting that the three month bill rate (RS) will begin gradually rising. It is 1.4 percent at the end of 2012.

Federal Government Budget: The nominal federal government budget deficit on a NIPA basis, variable -SGP, is predicted to be between about $1.1 and $1.5 trillion for the next five years. It rises to $1.9 trillion by 2020. (Again, all values are at annual rates.) The federal government debt, variable -AG, is $22.2 trillion at the end of 2020, which is 77.8 percent of nominal GDP (variable AGZGDP in the model). This is up from 35.4 percent in 2007:1. Interest payments of the federal government, variable INTG, rise from $312.7 billion in 2011:2 to $1.253 trillion in 2020:4 as a result of the increasing debt and rising interest rates.

U.S. Current Account: The deficit in the U.S. current account, variable -SR, gradually falls through 2013 and then gradually rises after that.

Comments on the Forecast and Possible Experiments to Run

The main message from the current forecast is that if there are no bad shocks, the economy grows well in the last half of 2011 and in 2012. By the end of 2012 the unemployment rate is down to 7.7 percent. This forecast is more optimistic about real growth than most people are forecasting, although the inflation forecasts are more pessimistic. The strong growth forecasts are not surprising given the model. Monetary and fiscal policy are expansionary, and physical stocks that were drawn down during the recession are predicted to be built up. Without any bad shocks assumed, the model predicts a fairly strong recovery. Also, as mentioned above, no government spending cuts or tax increases are assumed for the forecast. The assumption of no bad shocks, which is used for the forecast, means that stock prices, housing prices, and import prices grow at historically normal rates. There are no negative wealth shocks through falling stock prices and housing prices and no positive price shocks through rapidly rising import prices (due, say, to a depreciating dollar and/or rising dollar oil prices). Asset prices like stock prices, housing prices, exchange rates, and oil prices are essentially unpredictable.

Experiments can be run using the model in which stock prices (variable CG), housing prices (variable PSI14), and import prices (variable PIM) are changed. This allows one to examine the sensitivity of the forecast to changes in asset prices. It may be, for example, that the growing federal government debt triggers a large depreciation of the dollar and possible fall in U.S. equity prices, and this can be analyzed by changing CG and PIM.

To review, oil price shocks and exchange rate shocks are handled through changes in PIM. Housing price changes are handled through changes in PSI14. Changes in PSI14 change PKH relative to PD and thus change housing wealth, PIH*KH. This affects consumption through the wealth variable AA (equation 89 and equations 1, 2, and 3). Regarding the stock market, each change in the S&P 500 index of 10 points is a change in CG, the capital gains variable in the model, of about $100 billion. If you think that the S&P index will fall, say, 100 points, you should drop the equation for CG and change CG by about -$1,000 billion at a quarterly rate (-$4,000 billion at an annual rate). See the discussion in Section 7.2 of The US Model Workbook. This will have a negative effect on real output growth because of a negative wealth effect.

Regarding the stimulus measures, the key variables are TRGHQ and COG. The key personal income tax rate is D1G. The employee payroll tax rate is D4G. The bailout variable is CTGB.

Table F1: Forecasts of Selected Variables
Table F1
US Model Forecasts of Selected Variables
Real GDP and Components
Billions of 2005 Dollars

Quar. GDPR %Ch CS %Ch CN %Ch CD %Ch
20041 12132.7 2.7 5524.7 3.2 1894.9 3.4 1024.4 5.7 20042 12210.8 2.6 5555.9 2.3 1894.7 0.0 1030.8 2.5 20043 12301.7 3.0 5594.1 2.8 1909.7 3.2 1051.2 8.2 20044 12402.4 3.3 5647.0 3.8 1930.2 4.4 1069.9 7.3 20051 12530.3 4.2 5682.9 2.6 1951.9 4.6 1081.2 4.3 20052 12586.1 1.8 5727.2 3.2 1961.7 2.0 1112.6 12.1 20053 12686.0 3.2 5770.3 3.0 1969.4 1.6 1128.4 5.8 20054 12751.1 2.1 5800.0 2.1 1990.6 4.4 1099.7 -9.8 20061 12912.1 5.1 5837.7 2.6 2001.4 2.2 1142.4 16.5 20062 12964.6 1.6 5880.8 3.0 2011.4 2.0 1143.3 0.3 20063 12966.2 0.0 5908.3 1.9 2021.3 2.0 1160.2 6.0 20064 13054.5 2.8 5950.9 2.9 2047.5 5.3 1176.2 5.6 20071 13072.1 0.5 5981.1 2.0 2053.9 1.3 1190.8 5.1 20072 13189.7 3.6 6001.2 1.4 2053.2 -0.1 1207.5 5.7 20073 13286.1 3.0 6018.0 1.1 2062.7 1.9 1223.0 5.2 20074 13342.2 1.7 6037.0 1.3 2064.8 0.4 1230.0 2.3 20081 13283.1 -1.8 6059.1 1.5 2047.7 -3.3 1199.3 -9.6 20082 13326.8 1.3 6052.1 -0.5 2059.2 2.3 1190.5 -2.9 20083 13203.1 -3.7 6025.7 -1.7 2030.9 -5.4 1152.2 -12.3 20084 12899.3 -8.9 6008.0 -1.2 2000.6 -5.8 1070.7 -25.4 20091 12678.7 -6.7 5972.5 -2.3 1995.6 -1.0 1077.2 2.5 20092 12656.7 -0.7 5947.6 -1.7 1988.0 -1.5 1066.1 -4.1 20093 12710.1 1.7 5945.8 -0.1 1997.9 2.0 1116.5 20.3 20094 12829.1 3.8 5951.9 0.4 2013.0 3.1 1103.0 -4.7 20101 12953.6 3.9 5966.5 1.0 2036.7 4.8 1129.2 9.8 20102 13074.4 3.8 6003.4 2.5 2046.4 1.9 1150.7 7.8 20103 13155.7 2.5 6027.3 1.6 2061.6 3.0 1175.1 8.8 20104 13232.3 2.3 6046.7 1.3 2083.3 4.3 1222.7 17.2 20111 13244.0 0.4 6058.4 0.8 2091.4 1.6 1257.1 11.7 20112 13286.4 1.3 6071.1 0.8 2091.9 0.1 1243.1 -4.4 20113 13386.4 3.0 6096.3 1.7 2098.0 1.2 1248.8 1.8 20114 13564.0 5.4 6120.8 1.6 2105.9 1.5 1254.8 1.9 20121 13720.0 4.7 6141.5 1.4 2114.5 1.6 1260.2 1.7 20122 13870.4 4.5 6168.2 1.8 2124.6 1.9 1269.2 2.9 20123 14023.2 4.5 6202.0 2.2 2136.0 2.2 1280.6 3.6 20124 14173.9 4.4 6244.3 2.8 2148.1 2.3 1293.0 3.9 20131 14314.5 4.0 6292.6 3.1 2160.6 2.3 1305.7 4.0 20132 14465.1 4.3 6346.2 3.5 2173.4 2.4 1319.2 4.2 20133 14621.5 4.4 6404.1 3.7 2186.2 2.4 1333.6 4.5 20134 14779.0 4.4 6466.2 3.9 2199.2 2.4 1348.8 4.7 20141 14933.5 4.2 6530.3 4.0 2212.2 2.4 1364.9 4.9 20142 15082.9 4.1 6596.2 4.1 2225.2 2.4 1381.6 5.0 20143 15226.9 3.9 6663.8 4.2 2238.0 2.3 1398.7 5.0 20144 15366.0 3.7 6734.1 4.3 2250.7 2.3 1415.7 5.0 20151 15499.2 3.5 6804.6 4.3 2263.2 2.2 1433.1 5.0 20152 15626.5 3.3 6875.3 4.2 2275.6 2.2 1450.7 5.0 20153 15749.2 3.2 6947.0 4.2 2287.8 2.2 1468.3 4.9 20154 15869.1 3.1 7021.2 4.3 2299.9 2.1 1485.6 4.8 20161 15985.5 3.0 7094.9 4.3 2312.0 2.1 1503.2 4.8 20162 16098.0 2.8 7168.3 4.2 2324.1 2.1 1521.1 4.8 20163 16207.7 2.8 7242.1 4.2 2336.3 2.1 1538.9 4.8 20164 16316.7 2.7 7318.4 4.3 2348.7 2.1 1556.3 4.6 20171 16423.9 2.7 7393.9 4.2 2361.2 2.2 1573.9 4.6 20172 16529.5 2.6 7469.5 4.2 2374.0 2.2 1591.5 4.6 20173 16634.7 2.6 7546.2 4.2 2386.9 2.2 1609.0 4.5 20174 16742.0 2.6 7626.2 4.3 2400.1 2.2 1625.9 4.3 20181 16849.7 2.6 7705.6 4.2 2413.5 2.3 1643.1 4.3 20182 16957.7 2.6 7785.4 4.2 2427.1 2.3 1660.3 4.3 20183 17067.4 2.6 7867.1 4.3 2441.0 2.3 1677.4 4.2 20184 17181.7 2.7 7953.5 4.5 2455.0 2.3 1693.7 3.9 20191 17298.0 2.7 8039.4 4.4 2469.4 2.4 1710.3 4.0 20192 17415.4 2.7 8125.2 4.3 2484.0 2.4 1727.1 4.0 20193 17535.0 2.8 8212.9 4.4 2498.8 2.4 1743.9 3.9 20194 17660.0 2.9 8305.8 4.6 2513.9 2.4 1759.9 3.7 20201 17787.5 2.9 8398.0 4.5 2529.1 2.5 1776.3 3.8 20202 17916.6 2.9 8490.9 4.5 2544.6 2.5 1792.9 3.8 20203 18048.8 3.0 8586.4 4.6 2560.3 2.5 1809.4 3.7 20204 18187.9 3.1 8689.1 4.9 2576.0 2.5 1824.7 3.4
Quar. IHH %Ch IKF %Ch IVF IM %Ch
20041 624.9 12.3 966.5 -5.7 52.4 1829.2 10.6 20042 645.4 13.7 990.4 10.3 78.7 1902.6 17.0 20043 648.2 1.8 1017.9 11.6 62.7 1930.4 6.0 20044 653.9 3.6 1040.2 9.0 71.6 1979.4 10.5 20051 670.3 10.4 1069.1 11.6 91.4 1990.9 2.3 20052 685.8 9.6 1085.7 6.4 15.5 2012.9 4.5 20053 691.0 3.1 1102.7 6.4 11.8 2025.3 2.5 20054 690.8 -0.1 1114.4 4.3 81.0 2082.1 11.7 20061 685.8 -2.9 1169.8 21.5 65.8 2121.5 7.8 20062 653.4 -17.6 1193.3 8.3 72.5 2145.3 4.6 20063 621.5 -18.1 1204.6 3.8 67.5 2170.9 4.9 20064 579.4 -24.5 1208.9 1.4 31.8 2168.2 -0.5 20071 550.4 -18.6 1213.6 1.6 17.3 2199.8 6.0 20072 528.2 -15.2 1252.4 13.4 44.9 2210.7 2.0 20073 450.3 -47.2 1275.8 7.7 36.1 2216.0 1.0 20074 450.4 0.1 1292.9 5.5 12.6 2186.5 -5.2 20081 406.1 -33.9 1288.4 -1.4 -12.5 2194.1 1.4 20082 390.3 -14.7 1284.9 -1.1 -14.2 2180.1 -2.5 20083 368.4 -20.6 1247.9 -11.0 -38.1 2143.3 -6.6 20084 330.0 -35.6 1168.4 -23.1 -80.3 2058.6 -14.9 20091 298.0 -33.5 1064.3 -31.2 -161.6 1855.3 -34.0 20092 278.3 -23.9 1011.8 -18.3 -183.0 1781.2 -15.0 20093 290.4 18.7 997.5 -5.5 -178.7 1849.7 16.3 20094 287.9 -3.4 987.0 -4.2 -56.5 1925.2 17.4 20101 281.3 -8.9 1002.5 6.4 39.9 1983.0 12.6 20102 292.8 17.4 1052.4 21.4 64.6 2082.4 21.6 20103 274.3 -23.1 1083.8 12.5 92.3 2143.5 12.3 20104 269.9 -6.2 1110.0 10.0 38.3 2131.0 -2.3 20111 268.3 -2.3 1117.7 2.8 49.1 2173.9 8.3 20112 271.9 5.4 1138.9 7.8 49.6 2181.0 1.3 20113 281.3 14.4 1176.0 13.7 -0.1 2154.9 -4.7 20114 292.5 17.0 1224.0 17.4 31.9 2141.7 -2.4 20121 301.4 12.6 1263.7 13.6 59.2 2137.5 -0.8 20122 314.9 19.2 1309.5 15.3 67.1 2142.4 0.9 20123 331.0 22.1 1359.4 16.1 68.7 2156.1 2.6 20124 348.3 22.6 1408.6 15.3 70.9 2177.8 4.1 20131 365.1 20.6 1456.1 14.2 72.9 2206.6 5.4 20132 381.6 19.4 1505.5 14.3 68.3 2241.8 6.5 20133 397.6 17.9 1556.2 14.2 68.5 2283.0 7.6 20134 413.0 16.3 1606.6 13.6 70.5 2329.6 8.4 20141 427.3 14.7 1656.3 12.9 72.5 2381.0 9.1 20142 440.7 13.1 1704.4 12.1 73.2 2436.5 9.7 20143 452.9 11.6 1750.1 11.2 72.5 2495.5 10.0 20144 464.0 10.2 1793.1 10.2 70.7 2557.4 10.3 20151 474.1 9.0 1832.5 9.1 68.7 2621.5 10.4 20152 483.3 8.0 1867.9 8.0 66.3 2687.2 10.4 20153 491.7 7.1 1899.4 6.9 63.5 2754.0 10.3 20154 499.4 6.5 1927.0 5.9 60.4 2821.6 10.2 20161 506.7 5.9 1950.4 5.0 58.3 2889.5 10.0 20162 513.5 5.5 1969.5 4.0 56.3 2957.3 9.7 20163 520.0 5.1 1984.5 3.1 54.1 3024.7 9.4 20164 526.2 4.9 1995.8 2.3 51.9 3091.7 9.2 20171 532.3 4.7 2003.2 1.5 50.7 3157.9 8.9 20172 538.3 4.6 2007.1 0.8 49.5 3223.3 8.5 20173 544.2 4.5 2007.8 0.2 48.2 3287.7 8.2 20174 550.0 4.4 2006.2 -0.3 47.0 3351.5 8.0 20181 555.9 4.3 2002.3 -0.8 46.9 3414.5 7.7 20182 561.8 4.3 1996.3 -1.2 46.9 3476.8 7.5 20183 567.7 4.3 1989.0 -1.5 46.7 3538.6 7.3 20184 573.7 4.3 1981.3 -1.5 46.4 3600.4 7.2 20191 579.6 4.2 1973.1 -1.6 47.6 3662.2 7.0 20192 585.6 4.2 1964.5 -1.7 48.7 3724.1 6.9 20193 591.7 4.2 1956.3 -1.7 49.3 3786.4 6.9 20194 597.7 4.1 1949.3 -1.4 49.5 3849.7 6.9 20201 603.7 4.1 1943.2 -1.2 51.2 3914.0 6.9 20202 609.7 4.1 1938.2 -1.0 52.7 3979.5 6.9 20203 615.7 4.0 1934.8 -0.7 53.5 4046.5 6.9 20204 621.7 3.9 1933.9 -0.2 53.9 4115.8 7.0
GDPR Real GDP CS Consumption - Services CN Consumption - Nondurables CD Consumption - Durables IHH Residential Investment IKF Nonresidential Investment IVF Inventory Investment IM Imports %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Prices and Wages - %Ch
                                                                         

Quar. GDPD PF WF WR
20041 3.5 2.4 1.5 -0.9 20042 3.4 3.0 7.7 4.5 20043 2.9 3.8 5.8 1.9 20044 3.0 2.9 3.5 0.6 20051 3.7 3.3 -0.7 -3.9 20052 2.7 2.7 3.0 0.2 20053 4.2 4.6 7.5 2.7 20054 3.4 3.4 1.2 -2.1 20061 3.0 2.6 8.3 5.6 20062 3.5 3.9 1.2 -2.6 20063 3.1 2.6 1.5 -1.1 20064 1.8 1.3 7.5 6.1 20071 4.7 3.6 3.7 0.1 20072 2.8 2.8 -0.5 -3.2 20073 1.4 0.9 3.3 2.3 20074 1.9 1.5 6.2 4.6 20081 2.5 2.1 6.5 4.3 20082 2.5 2.7 0.7 -1.9 20083 3.2 4.0 3.9 -0.1 20084 0.5 0.8 4.1 3.2 20091 1.5 2.6 -6.2 -8.6 20092 -0.4 -0.6 4.4 5.0 20093 0.2 0.4 1.3 0.9 20094 1.0 0.3 0.2 -0.1 20101 1.5 0.5 1.0 0.6 20102 1.6 1.3 3.4 2.1 20103 1.3 0.9 4.8 3.9 20104 1.8 1.5 0.5 -1.0 20111 2.7 0.9 2.4 1.4 20112 2.4 2.1 2.0 -0.1 20113 2.7 3.2 6.2 2.9 20114 3.6 3.3 6.2 2.8 20121 3.7 3.5 6.3 2.7 20122 3.6 3.6 6.3 2.7 20123 3.7 3.7 6.4 2.6 20124 3.8 3.8 6.4 2.5 20131 3.9 3.8 6.4 2.5 20132 3.9 3.9 6.4 2.4 20133 4.0 3.9 6.4 2.4 20134 4.1 4.0 6.4 2.3 20141 4.1 4.0 6.4 2.3 20142 4.2 4.1 6.4 2.2 20143 4.2 4.1 6.4 2.2 20144 4.2 4.1 6.3 2.2 20151 4.1 4.0 6.3 2.2 20152 4.1 4.0 6.2 2.1 20153 4.0 3.9 6.1 2.1 20154 4.0 3.9 6.0 2.1 20161 3.9 3.8 5.9 2.1 20162 3.8 3.7 5.8 2.1 20163 3.7 3.6 5.7 2.1 20164 3.6 3.5 5.6 2.1 20171 3.5 3.4 5.6 2.1 20172 3.5 3.3 5.5 2.1 20173 3.4 3.2 5.4 2.1 20174 3.3 3.1 5.3 2.1 20181 3.2 3.1 5.2 2.1 20182 3.2 3.0 5.1 2.1 20183 3.1 2.9 5.1 2.1 20184 3.1 2.9 5.0 2.1 20191 3.0 2.9 5.0 2.1 20192 3.0 2.8 5.0 2.1 20193 3.0 2.8 4.9 2.1 20194 3.0 2.8 4.9 2.1 20201 2.9 2.8 4.9 2.1 20202 2.9 2.8 4.9 2.1 20203 2.9 2.8 4.9 2.1 20204 2.9 2.8 4.9 2.0
GDPD GDP Price Index PF Firm Sector Price Index WF Nominal Wage Rate WR Real Wage Rate %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Money and Interest Rates
                                                                         

Quar. RS RB RM M1 %Ch UBR
20041 0.9 5.5 5.6 1490.3 6.7 75.5 20042 1.1 5.9 6.1 1503.0 3.4 80.5 20043 1.5 5.6 5.9 1526.5 6.4 75.9 20044 2.0 5.5 5.7 1554.7 7.6 65.5 20051 2.5 5.3 5.8 1549.9 -1.2 76.6 20052 2.9 5.1 5.7 1557.7 2.0 75.9 20053 3.4 5.1 5.8 1552.4 -1.3 71.9 20054 3.8 5.4 6.2 1553.5 0.3 69.1 20061 4.4 5.4 6.2 1574.2 5.4 70.1 20062 4.7 5.9 6.6 1573.9 -0.1 71.3 20063 4.9 5.7 6.6 1553.0 -5.2 67.1 20064 4.9 5.4 6.2 1539.3 -3.5 70.4 20071 5.0 5.4 6.2 1566.8 7.4 69.2 20072 4.7 5.6 6.4 1557.5 -2.3 69.1 20073 4.3 5.8 6.6 1537.2 -5.1 74.5 20074 3.4 5.5 6.2 1549.6 3.3 27.1 20081 2.0 5.5 5.9 1563.4 3.6 -32.5 20082 1.6 5.6 6.1 1584.3 5.4 -86.6 20083 1.5 5.7 6.3 1703.6 33.7 -21.3 20084 0.3 5.8 5.9 1808.1 26.9 353.4 20091 0.2 5.3 5.1 1785.8 -4.9 300.1 20092 0.2 5.5 5.0 1870.5 20.4 370.3 20093 0.2 5.3 5.2 1920.5 11.1 686.3 20094 0.1 5.2 4.9 1973.7 11.6 912.5 20101 0.1 5.3 5.0 1938.2 -7.0 1069.1 20102 0.1 5.0 4.9 1993.9 12.0 1009.7 20103 0.2 4.6 4.4 2010.4 3.4 959.9 20104 0.1 4.9 4.4 2091.2 17.1 983.7 20111 0.1 5.1 4.8 2165.0 14.9 1415.6 20112 0.0 5.0 4.7 2229.7 12.5 1415.6 20113 0.3 4.9 4.5 2240.6 2.0 1299.0 20114 0.6 4.8 4.5 2253.3 2.3 1199.0 20121 0.8 4.7 4.5 2266.7 2.4 1099.0 20122 0.9 4.6 4.5 2280.4 2.5 999.0 20123 1.1 4.6 4.5 2294.7 2.5 899.0 20124 1.4 4.6 4.6 2309.6 2.6 799.0 20131 1.6 4.5 4.6 2325.0 2.7 699.0 20132 1.8 4.6 4.7 2340.9 2.8 599.0 20133 2.0 4.6 4.8 2357.3 2.8 499.0 20134 2.2 4.6 4.9 2374.4 2.9 399.0 20141 2.4 4.7 5.1 2391.8 3.0 299.0 20142 2.6 4.8 5.2 2409.8 3.0 199.0 20143 2.8 4.8 5.3 2428.3 3.1 99.0 20144 3.0 4.9 5.5 2447.3 3.2 99.0 20151 3.1 5.0 5.6 2466.9 3.2 99.0 20152 3.3 5.1 5.7 2487.1 3.3 99.0 20153 3.4 5.2 5.9 2507.8 3.4 99.0 20154 3.4 5.2 6.0 2529.2 3.5 99.0 20161 3.5 5.3 6.1 2551.2 3.5 99.0 20162 3.5 5.4 6.1 2573.9 3.6 99.0 20163 3.6 5.4 6.2 2597.1 3.7 99.0 20164 3.6 5.5 6.3 2621.0 3.7 99.0 20171 3.6 5.5 6.3 2645.5 3.8 99.0 20172 3.6 5.5 6.4 2670.7 3.9 99.0 20173 3.5 5.6 6.4 2696.4 3.9 99.0 20174 3.5 5.6 6.4 2722.8 4.0 99.0 20181 3.5 5.6 6.4 2749.7 4.0 99.0 20182 3.5 5.6 6.5 2777.2 4.1 99.0 20183 3.4 5.6 6.5 2805.3 4.1 99.0 20184 3.4 5.6 6.5 2834.0 4.2 99.0 20191 3.4 5.6 6.5 2863.3 4.2 99.0 20192 3.4 5.6 6.5 2893.0 4.2 99.0 20193 3.4 5.6 6.5 2923.3 4.3 99.0 20194 3.4 5.7 6.5 2954.1 4.3 99.0 20201 3.4 5.7 6.5 2985.5 4.3 99.0 20202 3.4 5.7 6.5 3017.3 4.3 99.0 20203 3.4 5.7 6.5 3049.6 4.4 99.0 20204 3.4 5.7 6.5 3082.5 4.4 99.0
RS Bill Rate RB Bond Rate RM Mortgage Rate M1 Money Supply UBR Unborrowed Reserves %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Employment and Labor Force
                                                                         

Quar. 100UR L1 L2 L3 JF E U %Ch %Ch %Ch %Ch %Ch mill.
20041 5.7 -1.1 0.0 5.2 0.9 1.7 8.3 20042 5.6 0.5 0.5 0.9 1.9 1.0 8.2 20043 5.4 2.3 0.7 12.7 2.0 5.8 8.0 20044 5.4 -0.3 0.0 2.7 1.5 0.9 7.9 20051 5.3 -0.5 -0.5 -7.5 1.8 -2.5 7.8 20052 5.1 0.7 0.6 5.4 2.1 2.9 7.6 20053 5.0 1.4 1.0 1.7 1.3 2.0 7.4 20054 5.0 -0.7 0.6 2.5 1.4 0.8 7.4 20061 4.7 2.1 0.9 1.5 3.0 2.5 7.1 20062 4.7 -0.1 0.0 4.3 1.6 1.6 7.0 20063 4.6 0.3 2.0 1.5 0.9 1.2 7.0 20064 4.5 1.7 0.0 4.4 1.3 2.8 6.7 20071 4.5 3.2 -0.3 0.1 1.3 0.9 6.8 20072 4.5 -1.6 -0.9 -0.4 0.4 -0.9 6.8 20073 4.7 -1.0 2.0 1.9 -0.7 0.1 7.1 20074 4.8 0.9 0.1 3.3 0.9 0.8 7.3 20081 5.0 1.8 1.1 3.5 -0.7 1.5 7.6 20082 5.3 -1.6 1.3 2.5 -1.3 -0.9 8.2 20083 6.1 0.9 0.2 2.0 -2.8 -1.9 9.3 20084 6.9 -1.3 0.2 2.7 -6.2 -3.2 10.6 20091 8.2 -1.6 -0.6 1.8 -7.0 -5.6 12.6 20092 9.3 1.3 0.3 1.6 -5.9 -3.4 14.3 20093 9.7 0.5 -1.1 -2.8 -3.3 -2.8 14.9 20094 10.0 -2.4 -1.6 -0.6 -2.0 -2.9 15.3 20101 9.7 -1.9 0.2 3.4 -0.4 1.8 14.8 20102 9.7 2.3 -1.4 3.0 0.9 1.6 14.8 20103 9.6 -0.6 -1.7 0.7 -0.3 -0.2 14.7 20104 9.6 -2.3 1.2 0.6 1.3 -0.4 14.8 20111 8.9 -2.0 -1.9 3.3 2.6 2.9 13.7 20112 9.1 1.4 -0.6 0.9 1.5 0.0 13.9 20113 8.8 0.0 0.6 1.1 1.7 1.6 13.6 20114 8.6 0.0 0.5 1.2 1.9 1.7 13.2 20121 8.3 0.0 0.5 1.3 1.9 1.6 12.9 20122 8.1 0.0 0.4 1.4 1.9 1.6 12.5 20123 7.9 0.0 0.4 1.5 2.0 1.6 12.2 20124 7.7 0.1 0.4 1.7 2.1 1.6 11.9 20131 7.5 0.1 0.4 1.8 2.0 1.6 11.7 20132 7.3 0.1 0.4 1.9 2.1 1.6 11.4 20133 7.1 0.1 0.4 2.0 2.2 1.7 11.1 20134 6.9 0.1 0.4 2.1 2.3 1.7 10.8 20141 6.7 0.1 0.4 2.2 2.4 1.8 10.5 20142 6.5 0.1 0.4 2.3 2.3 1.7 10.3 20143 6.4 0.1 0.4 2.4 2.3 1.7 10.0 20144 6.2 0.1 0.4 2.5 2.2 1.6 9.8 20151 6.1 0.1 0.3 2.5 2.1 1.5 9.7 20152 6.0 0.1 0.3 2.6 1.9 1.4 9.6 20153 6.0 0.1 0.3 2.6 1.8 1.3 9.5 20154 5.9 0.1 0.3 2.6 1.7 1.2 9.5 20161 5.9 0.1 0.3 2.6 1.5 1.1 9.4 20162 5.9 0.0 0.3 2.6 1.4 1.1 9.5 20163 5.9 0.0 0.3 2.6 1.3 1.0 9.5 20164 5.9 0.0 0.3 2.6 1.2 1.0 9.5 20171 6.0 0.0 0.3 2.6 1.1 0.9 9.6 20172 6.0 0.0 0.3 2.5 1.0 0.9 9.7 20173 6.0 0.0 0.3 2.5 1.0 0.8 9.8 20174 6.1 0.0 0.3 2.5 0.9 0.8 9.8 20181 6.1 -0.1 0.3 2.4 0.9 0.8 9.9 20182 6.1 -0.1 0.3 2.4 0.8 0.8 10.0 20183 6.1 -0.1 0.3 2.4 0.8 0.8 10.1 20184 6.2 -0.1 0.3 2.4 0.9 0.8 10.1 20191 6.2 -0.1 0.3 2.3 0.9 0.9 10.2 20192 6.2 -0.1 0.2 2.3 0.9 0.9 10.2 20193 6.2 -0.1 0.2 2.3 0.9 0.9 10.2 20194 6.2 -0.1 0.2 2.3 0.9 0.9 10.2 20201 6.2 -0.1 0.2 2.3 1.0 1.0 10.2 20202 6.1 -0.1 0.2 2.3 1.0 1.0 10.2 20203 6.1 -0.1 0.2 2.3 1.1 1.0 10.2 20204 6.1 -0.1 0.2 2.3 1.1 1.0 10.1
UR Unemployment Rate L1 Labor Force, Men 25-54 L2 Labor Force, Women 25-54 L3 Labor Force, All Others 16+ JF Jobs, Firm Sector E Total Employment U Total Unemployment %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Other Endogenous Variables
                                                                         

Quar. CG PIEF PIEF 100SRZ PROD SR SGP SSP %Ch %Ch
20041 2452.8 858.0 74.3 3.3 0.9 540.6 -409.5 -22.8 20042 843.4 913.6 28.6 3.8 3.0 618.8 -384.5 -20.9 20043 -148.8 963.1 23.5 3.6 3.7 636.8 -361.5 -3.6 20044 7776.5 940.7 -9.0 3.9 -1.5 719.7 -362.3 13.7 20051 442.5 998.4 26.9 1.8 2.1 699.0 -289.0 25.1 20052 4252.2 1032.5 14.4 1.5 1.0 708.6 -288.3 18.9 20053 3910.4 1017.0 -5.9 1.3 6.7 739.4 -287.5 25.4 20054 3660.4 1124.7 49.6 1.7 -1.6 833.7 -267.5 34.5 20061 7512.5 1157.9 12.4 2.4 -0.8 794.3 -207.2 62.4 20062 -1023.1 1178.4 7.3 2.7 0.8 815.6 -229.5 63.2 20063 3508.2 1262.7 31.8 2.5 -1.0 858.0 -215.6 42.3 20064 8098.4 1194.8 -19.8 2.8 1.6 744.3 -162.9 35.9 20071 4024.6 1201.8 2.4 2.7 2.9 798.8 -201.7 29.8 20072 5172.0 1220.3 6.3 2.3 3.3 771.6 -237.4 29.7 20073 212.7 1164.1 -17.2 2.2 4.9 686.7 -265.3 10.0 20074 -3517.1 1263.8 38.9 2.5 5.3 626.1 -276.6 -20.6 20081 -7761.5 1254.8 -2.8 4.3 -1.6 714.0 -388.7 -42.4 20082 -3733.3 1270.9 5.2 6.3 3.2 711.4 -764.5 -29.8 20083 -9145.0 1321.1 16.8 5.0 5.2 700.6 -639.2 -101.8 20084 -17979.9 836.7 -83.9 6.4 1.7 609.1 -661.6 -114.9 20091 -5115.6 856.1 9.6 5.8 -7.1 387.3 -994.1 -118.3 20092 5317.2 849.7 -2.9 6.4 1.5 342.5 -1303.0 -75.3 20093 9720.6 976.6 74.5 4.5 2.9 395.5 -1305.4 -74.0 20094 2405.0 1150.2 92.5 4.4 2.8 404.0 -1269.5 -44.8 20101 3596.7 1272.2 49.6 5.0 2.4 486.7 -1271.8 -32.1 20102 -6500.4 1300.2 9.1 5.7 0.5 487.1 -1278.2 -28.3 20103 4858.5 1376.4 25.6 5.7 0.3 492.9 -1257.8 -5.1 20104 8392.0 1425.5 15.0 5.3 0.6 469.7 -1287.5 -35.3 20111 4234.9 1498.4 22.1 5.0 2.4 498.0 -1206.0 -57.4 20112 0.0 1417.5 -19.9 5.2 -3.6 523.0 -1276.9 -57.5 20113 2501.6 1486.2 20.8 5.9 3.7 458.7 -1250.1 -86.7 20114 2662.5 1567.6 23.8 5.9 3.6 407.3 -1158.4 -81.7 20121 2477.6 1630.8 17.1 5.6 2.9 364.1 -1050.7 -78.5 20122 2346.3 1682.8 13.4 6.2 2.7 330.3 -1064.0 -75.1 20123 2304.1 1733.2 12.5 6.7 2.7 305.7 -1077.0 -71.0 20124 2243.7 1780.1 11.3 7.0 2.5 289.3 -1083.0 -66.0 20131 2137.1 1818.1 8.8 7.2 2.2 279.9 -1070.6 -60.8 20132 2209.5 1862.3 10.1 7.4 2.4 277.0 -1085.7 -54.7 20133 2247.5 1910.5 10.8 7.6 2.4 280.0 -1099.7 -47.6 20134 2232.2 1957.9 10.3 7.7 2.3 288.3 -1113.7 -39.7 20141 2188.7 2001.4 9.2 7.9 2.2 301.2 -1128.8 -31.4 20142 2140.8 2039.9 7.9 8.0 2.0 317.9 -1145.8 -23.0 20143 2102.7 2073.6 6.8 8.0 1.9 337.9 -1165.1 -14.7 20144 2083.6 2103.8 6.0 8.1 1.9 357.9 -1182.3 -6.5 20151 2065.7 2130.2 5.1 8.1 1.8 379.9 -1201.9 1.3 20152 2054.9 2152.8 4.3 8.1 1.7 403.0 -1224.1 8.7 20153 2061.5 2172.9 3.8 8.1 1.7 427.0 -1248.7 15.8 20154 2089.8 2192.0 3.6 8.0 1.8 451.4 -1275.2 22.8 20161 2112.0 2209.6 3.2 8.0 1.8 475.7 -1303.7 29.5 20162 2132.7 2225.2 2.9 7.9 1.8 499.3 -1334.3 35.8 20163 2164.8 2239.5 2.6 7.9 1.8 522.0 -1366.7 41.8 20164 2218.6 2254.6 2.7 7.8 1.8 543.7 -1400.3 48.0 20171 2262.5 2269.4 2.7 7.7 1.8 564.0 -1435.2 53.9 20172 2306.9 2284.0 2.6 7.7 1.8 582.4 -1471.5 59.7 20173 2364.9 2299.5 2.7 7.6 1.9 599.1 -1508.7 65.5 20174 2444.4 2317.9 3.2 7.5 1.9 614.3 -1546.0 71.8 20181 2507.9 2337.9 3.5 7.4 1.9 627.6 -1583.7 78.2 20182 2567.6 2359.2 3.7 7.3 1.9 639.0 -1621.8 84.7 20183 2640.8 2383.0 4.1 7.2 2.0 648.8 -1660.0 91.6 20184 2740.2 2411.9 4.9 7.1 2.0 657.4 -1697.2 99.3 20191 2811.9 2443.7 5.4 7.0 2.0 664.9 -1734.2 107.3 20192 2870.3 2477.0 5.6 6.9 2.0 671.0 -1771.0 115.6 20193 2941.2 2513.0 5.9 6.8 2.0 676.2 -1807.5 124.4 20194 3043.9 2554.8 6.8 6.6 2.1 681.2 -1842.7 134.3 20201 3113.4 2599.7 7.2 6.5 2.1 685.8 -1877.3 144.5 20202 3170.3 2646.4 7.4 6.4 2.0 690.1 -1911.6 155.1 20203 3243.1 2696.3 7.8 6.3 2.0 694.6 -1945.3 166.4 20204 3353.1 2753.0 8.7 6.1 2.1 700.3 -1977.1 179.2
CG Capital Gains PIEF Profits SRZ Saving Rate PROD Productivity SR Savings-Foreign Sector SGP Federal Budget Deficit(-), NIPA SSP S&L Budget Deficit(-), NIPA %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Selected Exogenous Variables
                                                                         

Quar. COG COS EX TRGH TRGH PIM %Ch %Ch %Ch %Ch %Ch
20041 8.9 -0.9 9.9 987.4 8.4 9.1 20042 5.0 1.1 6.4 995.9 3.5 5.6 20043 12.9 -5.7 3.0 1004.8 3.6 4.2 20044 -11.8 -4.7 9.5 1017.2 5.0 10.0 20051 2.8 -2.5 7.7 1045.7 11.7 3.4 20052 1.9 0.6 8.9 1055.0 3.6 5.7 20053 20.6 -1.5 0.1 1069.4 5.6 8.5 20054 -13.9 3.9 10.4 1082.2 4.9 8.1 20061 28.4 -2.5 16.5 1138.5 22.5 1.6 20062 -6.6 6.0 6.9 1161.7 8.4 4.2 20063 -4.0 -0.2 0.6 1170.2 3.0 3.1 20064 2.1 -0.4 17.9 1183.8 4.7 -4.5 20071 -8.4 4.7 6.4 1216.9 11.7 2.7 20072 15.0 0.8 6.8 1227.4 3.5 6.6 20073 15.1 -1.2 15.7 1239.3 3.9 6.8 20074 0.6 -1.3 11.6 1256.3 5.6 16.9 20081 15.2 -3.7 5.5 1296.2 13.3 16.7 20082 5.2 -1.6 12.7 1623.0 145.8 20.9 20083 16.3 -3.2 -3.5 1411.7 -42.8 10.6 20084 11.0 -8.3 -21.4 1389.6 -6.1 -36.7 20091 -9.7 -3.1 -28.9 1488.3 31.6 -29.2 20092 19.2 3.5 -0.5 1765.3 97.9 6.6 20093 8.1 -2.9 13.9 1843.2 18.9 14.5 20094 1.5 -7.7 23.5 1871.5 6.3 11.6 20101 1.5 -9.3 7.2 1900.4 6.3 8.4 20102 10.3 3.3 10.0 1930.6 6.5 -2.2 20103 8.1 1.6 10.0 1960.9 6.4 -2.1 20104 -6.0 -6.5 7.8 1725.4 -40.1 8.4 20111 -18.6 -8.2 7.8 1757.8 7.7 19.1 20112 3.6 -8.3 6.0 1791.3 7.8 12.8 20113 2.5 0.5 7.0 1819.8 6.5 1.5 20114 -1.8 0.5 7.0 1757.4 -13.0 1.5 20121 2.6 0.5 7.0 1790.9 7.8 1.5 20122 2.9 0.5 7.0 1824.7 7.8 1.5 20123 2.6 0.5 7.0 1859.3 7.8 1.5 20124 -2.0 0.5 7.0 1894.6 7.8 1.5 20131 -7.2 0.5 7.0 1919.5 5.4 1.5 20132 3.0 0.5 7.0 1957.0 8.1 1.5 20133 3.0 0.5 7.0 1995.7 8.2 1.5 20134 3.0 0.5 7.0 2035.6 8.2 1.5 20141 3.0 0.5 7.0 2076.5 8.3 1.5 20142 3.0 0.5 7.0 2118.4 8.3 1.5 20143 3.0 0.5 7.0 2161.2 8.3 1.5 20144 3.0 0.5 7.0 2204.8 8.3 1.5 20151 3.0 0.5 7.0 2249.2 8.3 1.5 20152 3.0 0.5 7.0 2294.2 8.3 1.5 20153 3.0 0.5 7.0 2339.8 8.2 1.5 20154 3.0 0.5 7.0 2386.0 8.1 1.5 20161 3.0 0.5 7.0 2432.6 8.0 1.5 20162 3.0 0.5 7.0 2479.6 8.0 1.5 20163 3.0 0.5 7.0 2527.0 7.9 1.5 20164 3.0 0.5 7.0 2574.8 7.8 1.5 20171 3.0 0.5 7.0 2622.9 7.7 1.5 20172 3.0 0.5 7.0 2671.4 7.6 1.5 20173 3.0 0.5 7.0 2720.2 7.5 1.5 20174 3.0 0.5 7.0 2769.4 7.4 1.5 20181 3.0 0.5 7.0 2819.1 7.4 1.5 20182 3.0 0.5 7.0 2869.2 7.3 1.5 20183 3.0 0.5 7.0 2919.7 7.2 1.5 20184 3.0 0.5 7.0 2970.9 7.2 1.5 20191 3.0 0.5 7.0 3022.6 7.2 1.5 20192 3.0 0.5 7.0 3075.1 7.1 1.5 20193 3.0 0.5 7.0 3128.2 7.1 1.5 20194 3.0 0.5 7.0 3182.1 7.1 1.5 20201 3.0 0.5 7.0 3236.8 7.1 1.5 20202 3.0 0.5 7.0 3292.5 7.1 1.5 20203 3.0 0.5 7.0 3349.0 7.0 1.5 20204 3.0 0.5 7.0 3406.6 7.1 1.5
COG Real Federal Purchases of Goods COS Real S&L Purchases of Goods EX Exports TRGH Nominal Federal Transfer Payments PIM Import Price Index %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F2: Forecasts of the Federal Government Budget
Table F2
US Model Forecasts of the Federal Government Budget
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Quar. RECG TFG TCG IBTG SIG
20041 1904.6 768.8 226.4 100.5 793.5 20042 1950.3 788.8 243.2 100.6 802.0 20043 2006.3 812.7 262.6 101.6 813.0 20044 2036.5 826.7 269.0 101.9 822.0 20051 2190.6 894.9 333.8 103.7 840.5 20052 2218.3 919.3 326.7 107.9 845.3 20053 2264.8 946.1 333.6 106.8 859.0 20054 2326.8 967.0 369.8 104.6 865.7 20061 2431.6 1023.1 383.8 107.0 896.9 20062 2459.0 1034.7 396.1 107.4 899.8 20063 2502.8 1053.9 415.5 107.8 904.0 20064 2518.9 1088.0 384.6 106.1 917.8 20071 2593.4 1136.5 392.8 100.7 938.4 20072 2604.9 1155.1 384.0 101.0 940.1 20073 2596.0 1174.2 349.1 102.6 944.9 20074 2610.8 1196.4 325.4 103.0 957.8 20081 2585.9 1200.2 276.9 102.7 975.9 20082 2556.5 1182.0 263.8 107.9 972.5 20083 2504.5 1163.3 232.1 104.5 974.4 20084 2398.9 1116.0 161.7 101.0 969.7 20091 2174.3 915.7 147.7 95.4 951.2 20092 2311.9 996.6 176.7 105.2 951.7 20093 2406.5 1069.8 225.9 103.3 946.6 20094 2459.1 1084.2 256.3 104.5 945.9 20101 2536.9 1087.5 322.3 103.6 960.3 20102 2604.5 1144.7 318.1 108.0 969.9 20103 2681.9 1178.3 348.9 110.2 975.5 20104 2425.5 942.8 329.1 108.7 977.9 20111 2514.5 1097.2 345.4 113.1 892.5 20112 2562.1 1142.1 334.2 119.0 901.3 20113 2629.9 1175.2 345.7 120.2 922.4 20114 2700.7 1210.1 359.2 121.4 942.5 20121 2890.2 1244.9 370.3 122.7 1083.6 20122 2960.6 1280.2 379.9 124.2 1106.5 20123 3032.8 1316.6 389.3 125.9 1130.1 20124 3106.3 1353.9 398.3 127.7 1154.2 20131 3179.1 1391.4 406.2 129.8 1178.4 20132 3255.3 1430.4 414.9 131.9 1203.5 20133 3334.9 1471.0 424.3 134.2 1229.5 20134 3416.9 1513.1 433.7 136.5 1256.3 20141 3500.0 1556.2 442.6 139.0 1283.7 20142 3583.6 1600.0 450.8 141.5 1311.3 20143 3667.1 1644.2 458.5 144.2 1338.9 20144 3750.1 1688.2 465.7 146.8 1366.5 20151 3832.5 1732.3 472.4 149.5 1393.9 20152 3914.0 1776.2 478.7 152.2 1421.0 20153 3994.6 1820.0 484.6 155.0 1447.8 20154 4074.8 1863.6 490.4 157.8 1474.2 20161 4154.4 1907.2 496.1 160.6 1500.3 20162 4233.2 1950.5 501.4 163.3 1526.1 20163 4311.2 1993.6 506.6 166.1 1551.5 20164 4389.1 2036.7 512.0 169.0 1576.6 20171 4466.8 2079.8 517.3 171.8 1601.5 20172 4544.1 2122.8 522.5 174.6 1626.2 20173 4621.6 2166.0 527.9 177.4 1650.7 20174 4699.9 2209.5 533.8 180.3 1675.3 20181 4778.9 2253.4 539.8 183.2 1699.9 20182 4858.6 2297.7 546.1 186.0 1724.6 20183 4939.5 2342.6 552.7 189.0 1749.4 20184 5022.5 2388.4 560.1 192.0 1774.7 20191 5107.2 2435.1 567.8 195.0 1800.3 20192 5193.5 2482.7 575.9 198.0 1826.3 20193 5281.5 2531.2 584.3 201.1 1852.6 20194 5372.6 2581.1 593.6 204.3 1879.7 20201 5466.0 2632.3 603.3 207.5 1907.3 20202 5561.6 2684.7 613.4 210.8 1935.5 20203 5659.8 2738.5 624.0 214.1 1964.2 20204 5761.9 2794.1 635.5 217.6 1994.0
Quar. EXPG PUG-IGZ TRGH TRGR TRGS INTG SUBG SGP
20041 2314.1 706.4 987.4 39.1 339.6 200.3 42.8 -409.5 20042 2334.8 717.7 995.9 28.6 349.3 199.2 42.6 -384.5 20043 2367.8 732.5 1004.8 30.0 347.8 207.8 44.9 -361.5 20044 2398.8 729.0 1017.2 28.7 360.0 211.2 52.7 -362.3 20051 2479.6 756.9 1045.7 44.7 356.4 216.7 59.2 -289.0 20052 2506.6 758.8 1055.0 32.5 359.9 236.7 63.7 -288.3 20053 2552.3 780.6 1069.4 36.4 362.4 237.5 66.0 -287.5 20054 2594.3 767.1 1082.2 46.3 366.2 265.1 67.4 -267.5 20061 2638.8 810.4 1138.5 31.6 354.6 246.4 57.3 -207.2 20062 2688.5 808.5 1161.7 38.1 361.0 265.4 53.8 -229.5 20063 2718.4 813.1 1170.2 39.2 365.1 278.4 52.4 -215.6 20064 2681.8 812.1 1183.8 24.7 355.5 253.8 51.9 -162.9 20071 2795.1 822.8 1216.9 50.1 377.3 275.4 52.6 -201.7 20072 2842.3 840.4 1227.4 29.9 381.6 312.7 50.3 -237.4 20073 2861.3 862.0 1239.3 36.6 382.1 293.6 47.7 -265.3 20074 2887.4 870.4 1256.3 46.6 381.9 282.2 50.0 -276.6 20081 2974.6 908.6 1296.2 47.6 386.8 284.5 50.9 -388.7 20082 3321.0 918.7 1623.0 43.9 396.3 286.6 52.5 -764.5 20083 3143.7 946.2 1411.7 40.4 394.1 297.2 54.1 -639.2 20084 3060.5 953.5 1389.6 35.7 404.8 219.9 57.0 -661.6 20091 3168.4 955.2 1488.3 44.3 438.4 182.7 59.5 -994.1 20092 3614.9 981.2 1765.3 58.4 503.4 246.3 60.3 -1303.0 20093 3711.9 997.8 1843.2 66.5 486.4 246.8 71.2 -1305.4 20094 3728.6 1012.4 1871.5 49.4 501.4 234.1 59.8 -1269.5 20101 3808.7 1033.9 1900.4 64.8 514.8 235.3 59.5 -1271.8 20102 3882.7 1056.0 1930.6 56.0 524.2 256.3 59.6 -1278.2 20103 3939.7 1066.6 1960.9 60.9 542.1 249.0 60.2 -1257.8 20104 3713.0 1059.6 1725.4 60.6 544.9 259.4 63.1 -1287.5 20111 3720.5 1059.1 1757.8 58.9 514.5 268.3 61.9 -1206.0 20112 3839.0 1077.7 1791.3 66.5 527.6 312.7 63.2 -1276.9 20113 3880.0 1093.0 1819.8 67.6 501.6 333.9 64.1 -1250.1 20114 3859.0 1101.8 1757.4 68.9 511.0 354.8 65.1 -1158.4 20121 3940.9 1118.1 1790.9 70.2 520.8 374.8 66.2 -1050.7 20122 4024.5 1135.4 1824.7 71.5 530.6 395.0 67.3 -1064.0 20123 4109.8 1152.8 1859.3 72.9 540.7 415.7 68.4 -1077.0 20124 4189.3 1163.0 1894.6 74.3 551.2 436.6 69.6 -1083.0 20131 4249.7 1164.3 1919.5 75.7 561.9 457.5 70.8 -1070.6 20132 4341.0 1183.3 1957.0 77.2 572.9 478.6 72.0 -1085.7 20133 4434.6 1202.6 1995.7 78.7 584.2 500.0 73.2 -1099.7 20134 4530.6 1222.3 2035.6 80.3 595.9 521.9 74.5 -1113.7 20141 4628.9 1242.5 2076.5 81.9 607.9 544.3 75.8 -1128.8 20142 4729.4 1262.9 2118.4 83.6 620.2 567.2 77.2 -1145.8 20143 4832.2 1283.7 2161.2 85.3 632.7 590.9 78.5 -1165.1 20144 4932.4 1304.7 2204.8 87.0 645.5 610.5 79.9 -1182.3 20151 5034.4 1325.9 2249.2 88.7 658.4 630.8 81.3 -1201.9 20152 5138.1 1347.2 2294.2 90.5 671.6 651.7 82.8 -1224.1 20153 5243.4 1368.7 2339.8 92.3 685.0 673.4 84.2 -1248.7 20154 5350.1 1390.2 2386.0 94.1 698.5 695.6 85.7 -1275.2 20161 5458.1 1411.7 2432.6 96.0 712.1 718.6 87.1 -1303.7 20162 5567.4 1433.3 2479.6 97.8 725.9 742.2 88.6 -1334.3 20163 5677.9 1454.9 2527.0 99.7 739.8 766.5 90.1 -1366.7 20164 5789.4 1476.4 2574.8 101.6 753.8 791.3 91.5 -1400.3 20171 5902.0 1497.9 2622.9 103.5 767.9 816.8 93.0 -1435.2 20172 6015.6 1519.5 2671.4 105.4 782.0 842.8 94.5 -1471.5 20173 6130.2 1541.0 2720.2 107.3 796.3 869.4 96.0 -1508.7 20174 6245.9 1562.5 2769.4 109.3 810.7 896.4 97.5 -1546.0 20181 6362.6 1584.1 2819.1 111.2 825.3 923.9 99.0 -1583.7 20182 6480.5 1605.8 2869.2 113.2 839.9 951.9 100.5 -1621.8 20183 6599.4 1627.5 2919.7 115.2 854.7 980.3 102.1 -1660.0 20184 6719.7 1649.3 2970.9 117.2 869.7 1009.0 103.6 -1697.2 20191 6841.4 1671.3 3022.6 119.2 884.9 1038.2 105.2 -1734.2 20192 6964.5 1693.4 3075.1 121.3 900.2 1067.8 106.7 -1771.0 20193 7089.1 1715.7 3128.2 123.4 915.8 1097.7 108.3 -1807.5 20194 7215.3 1738.2 3182.1 125.5 931.5 1128.0 109.9 -1842.7 20201 7343.3 1761.0 3236.8 127.7 947.6 1158.7 111.5 -1877.3 20202 7473.2 1784.0 3292.5 129.9 963.9 1189.8 113.2 -1911.6 20203 7605.1 1807.3 3349.0 132.1 980.4 1221.3 114.8 -1945.3 20204 7739.1 1831.0 3406.6 134.4 997.3 1253.3 116.5 -1977.1
RECG Total Receipts TPG Personal Tax TCG Corporate Tax IBTG Indirect Business Tax SIG Social Insurance Contributions EXPG Total Current Expenditures PUG-IGZ Consumption Expenditures TRGH Transfer Payments to Persons TRGR Transfer Payments to Rest of the World TRGS Grants in Aid to S&L Governments INTG Net Interest Paid SUBG Subsidies less Current Surplus SGP NIPA Surplus(+) or Deficit(-)
Table F3: Forecasts of the State and Local Government Budget
Table F3
US Model Forecasts of the S&L Government Budget
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Quar. RECS TFS TCS IBTS SIS TRGS
20041 1436.6 240.5 37.8 758.1 23.0 339.6 20042 1460.0 237.6 40.8 770.1 23.9 349.3 20043 1488.5 252.0 43.9 781.6 24.5 347.8 20044 1533.2 264.3 44.3 800.5 24.8 360.0 20051 1562.5 269.3 55.3 818.1 25.1 356.4 20052 1583.6 273.0 53.0 834.2 25.1 359.9 20053 1606.9 277.9 53.3 849.9 24.8 362.4 20054 1636.8 286.7 58.2 862.4 24.1 366.2 20061 1657.3 298.4 59.6 882.1 23.1 354.6 20062 1683.3 305.5 60.2 894.1 22.1 361.0 20063 1691.7 300.4 61.6 902.1 21.3 365.1 20064 1691.0 305.5 55.1 912.5 20.6 355.5 20071 1752.2 322.3 59.1 931.4 19.7 377.3 20072 1768.7 325.3 59.3 940.6 18.9 381.6 20073 1771.4 323.3 56.2 947.3 18.5 382.1 20074 1781.2 321.6 56.5 957.4 18.6 381.9 20081 1792.8 335.9 50.1 954.5 18.7 386.8 20082 1846.4 369.2 51.5 963.6 18.8 396.3 20083 1803.1 325.7 52.8 964.2 19.0 394.1 20084 1757.7 306.8 35.0 944.1 19.4 404.8 20091 1755.0 282.3 37.6 929.3 19.7 438.4 20092 1815.5 275.7 45.0 923.7 20.1 503.4 20093 1831.9 289.9 53.1 933.5 20.3 486.4 20094 1861.5 291.3 53.9 944.1 20.5 501.4 20101 1895.6 289.9 64.2 955.5 20.6 514.8 20102 1904.5 286.6 58.2 961.9 20.7 524.2 20103 1944.2 300.5 57.9 969.0 20.9 542.1 20104 1961.7 313.1 51.1 977.4 21.1 544.9 20111 1955.3 319.0 51.7 994.6 21.3 514.5 20112 1974.9 319.7 50.0 1001.5 21.6 527.6 20113 1969.0 327.2 51.7 1011.2 21.9 501.6 20114 2000.2 335.1 53.8 1021.9 22.3 511.0 20121 2031.8 343.1 55.4 1032.7 22.6 520.8 20122 2064.9 351.1 56.9 1045.2 23.0 530.6 20123 2100.2 359.4 58.3 1059.4 23.4 540.7 20124 2137.6 367.9 59.6 1075.1 23.8 551.2 20131 2176.4 376.5 60.8 1092.0 24.2 561.9 20132 2217.1 385.3 62.1 1110.1 24.6 572.9 20133 2259.6 394.5 63.5 1129.1 25.0 584.2 20134 2303.7 404.0 64.9 1149.1 25.5 595.9 20141 2349.1 413.7 66.2 1169.9 25.9 607.9 20142 2395.4 423.6 67.5 1191.3 26.4 620.2 20143 2442.6 433.5 68.6 1213.2 26.8 632.7 20144 2490.4 443.4 69.7 1235.7 27.3 645.5 20151 2538.7 453.3 70.7 1258.4 27.8 658.4 20152 2587.3 463.1 71.7 1281.3 28.3 671.6 20153 2636.2 472.9 72.5 1304.4 28.8 685.0 20154 2685.5 482.7 73.4 1327.8 29.3 698.5 20161 2734.9 492.4 74.3 1351.3 29.8 712.1 20162 2784.3 502.0 75.1 1374.7 30.3 725.9 20163 2833.8 511.6 75.8 1398.1 30.8 739.8 20164 2883.7 521.2 76.6 1421.9 31.3 753.8 20171 2933.6 530.7 77.4 1445.6 31.8 767.9 20172 2983.5 540.2 78.2 1469.2 32.3 782.0 20173 3033.7 549.7 79.0 1493.0 32.8 796.3 20174 3084.6 559.3 79.9 1517.2 33.3 810.7 20181 3135.6 568.9 80.8 1541.4 33.8 825.3 20182 3187.0 578.5 81.7 1565.7 34.4 839.9 20183 3239.0 588.3 82.7 1590.4 34.9 854.7 20184 3292.1 598.2 83.8 1615.6 35.4 869.7 20191 3345.8 608.3 85.0 1641.0 35.9 884.9 20192 3400.1 618.5 86.2 1666.6 36.5 900.2 20193 3455.2 628.9 87.5 1692.6 37.0 915.8 20194 3511.8 639.6 88.9 1719.5 37.6 931.5 20201 3569.2 650.5 90.3 1746.5 38.1 947.6 20202 3627.5 661.6 91.8 1773.9 38.7 963.9 20203 3687.1 673.0 93.4 1802.0 39.2 980.4 20204 3748.7 684.7 95.1 1831.2 39.8 997.3
Quar. EXPS PUS-ISZ TRSH INTS DRS SUBS SSP
20041 1459.4 1116.8 323.0 21.1 -1.7 -1.5 -22.8 20042 1480.9 1129.1 332.7 19.9 -1.8 -0.8 -20.9 20043 1492.1 1144.0 330.0 18.3 -1.9 -0.2 -3.6 20044 1519.5 1166.3 336.4 16.5 -2.6 0.3 13.7 20051 1537.4 1182.0 341.7 14.2 -1.9 -0.5 25.1 20052 1564.7 1198.4 353.9 12.0 -2.1 0.4 18.9 20053 1581.5 1222.9 348.2 9.8 -2.1 0.6 25.4 20054 1602.3 1244.8 349.2 7.5 -2.1 0.8 34.5 20061 1594.9 1254.5 334.2 5.5 -2.2 0.7 62.4 20062 1620.1 1274.6 340.7 3.3 -2.3 1.5 63.2 20063 1649.4 1292.7 353.0 1.7 -2.4 2.0 42.3 20064 1655.1 1307.6 346.8 -2.0 -2.4 2.7 35.9 20071 1722.4 1337.8 378.0 -0.9 -2.4 7.5 29.8 20072 1739.0 1360.6 360.2 -0.8 -2.3 19.0 29.7 20073 1761.4 1376.2 365.5 0.5 -2.4 19.2 10.0 20074 1801.8 1401.0 378.7 3.0 -2.4 19.1 -20.6 20081 1835.2 1428.4 381.5 9.1 -2.7 16.2 -42.4 20082 1876.2 1455.1 391.4 14.5 -2.7 15.2 -29.8 20083 1904.9 1475.6 395.8 18.9 -2.9 14.6 -101.8 20084 1872.6 1437.8 397.3 22.3 -3.2 15.2 -114.9 20091 1873.3 1417.1 416.8 25.7 -2.7 13.7 -118.3 20092 1890.8 1424.6 427.9 26.5 -2.2 11.8 -75.3 20093 1905.9 1427.6 437.7 29.5 -2.5 11.1 -74.0 20094 1906.3 1432.7 432.5 30.2 -2.7 10.9 -44.8 20101 1927.7 1443.1 441.3 31.7 -2.6 11.6 -32.1 20102 1932.8 1441.8 444.8 33.5 -2.5 12.7 -28.3 20103 1949.3 1438.9 460.8 36.9 -2.5 12.7 -5.1 20104 1997.0 1450.1 495.0 39.3 -2.7 12.6 -35.3 20111 2012.7 1471.7 487.3 39.9 -2.9 13.8 -57.4 20112 2032.4 1482.9 493.0 42.8 -3.0 13.7 -57.5 20113 2055.7 1505.6 492.8 43.4 -3.0 13.9 -86.7 20114 2082.0 1528.7 495.1 44.1 -3.1 14.1 -81.7 20121 2110.2 1552.5 498.5 44.8 -3.1 14.4 -78.5 20122 2140.0 1577.1 502.8 45.6 -3.2 14.6 -75.1 20123 2171.2 1602.4 507.7 46.3 -3.2 14.8 -71.0 20124 2203.6 1628.2 513.2 47.1 -3.3 15.1 -66.0 20131 2237.2 1654.6 519.3 47.9 -3.4 15.3 -60.8 20132 2271.7 1681.6 525.8 48.7 -3.4 15.6 -54.7 20133 2307.1 1709.0 532.7 49.6 -3.5 15.9 -47.6 20134 2343.4 1737.0 539.8 50.5 -3.5 16.1 -39.7 20141 2380.5 1765.5 547.2 51.3 -3.6 16.4 -31.4 20142 2418.4 1794.5 555.0 52.3 -3.7 16.7 -23.0 20143 2457.3 1823.8 563.2 53.2 -3.7 17.0 -14.7 20144 2497.0 1853.6 571.9 54.1 -3.8 17.3 -6.5 20151 2537.4 1883.5 581.2 55.1 -3.9 17.6 1.3 20152 2578.6 1913.7 590.9 56.0 -3.9 17.9 8.7 20153 2620.4 1944.0 601.1 57.0 -4.0 18.3 15.8 20154 2662.7 1974.4 611.7 58.0 -4.1 18.6 22.8 20161 2705.4 2004.9 622.7 59.0 -4.1 18.9 29.5 20162 2748.6 2035.4 634.0 60.0 -4.2 19.2 35.8 20163 2792.0 2065.8 645.7 61.0 -4.3 19.5 41.8 20164 2835.7 2096.3 657.6 62.0 -4.3 19.8 48.0 20171 2879.7 2126.8 669.7 63.0 -4.4 20.2 53.9 20172 2923.8 2157.3 682.1 64.0 -4.5 20.5 59.7 20173 2968.2 2187.7 694.6 65.0 -4.6 20.8 65.5 20174 3012.7 2218.3 707.3 66.0 -4.6 21.1 71.8 20181 3057.4 2248.8 720.1 67.1 -4.7 21.5 78.2 20182 3102.3 2279.5 732.9 68.1 -4.8 21.8 84.7 20183 3147.5 2310.3 745.9 69.1 -4.8 22.1 91.6 20184 3192.8 2341.3 758.9 70.2 -4.9 22.5 99.3 20191 3238.5 2372.5 772.0 71.2 -5.0 22.8 107.3 20192 3284.4 2403.9 785.1 72.3 -5.1 23.1 115.6 20193 3330.8 2435.7 798.3 73.3 -5.1 23.5 124.4 20194 3377.5 2467.7 811.5 74.4 -5.2 23.8 134.3 20201 3424.7 2500.2 824.8 75.5 -5.3 24.2 144.5 20202 3472.4 2533.0 838.2 76.6 -5.4 24.5 155.1 20203 3520.7 2566.3 851.8 77.8 -5.5 24.9 166.4 20204 3569.5 2600.0 865.3 78.9 -5.5 25.3 179.2
RECS Total Receipts TPS Personal Tax TCS Corporate Tax IBTS Indirect Business Tax SIS Social Insurance Contributions TRGS Grants in Aid from Federal Government EXPS Total Current Expenditures PUS-ISZ Consumption Expenditures TRSH Transfer Payments to Persons INTS Net Interest Paid DRS Dividends Received SUBS Subsidies less Current Surplus SSP NIPA Surplus(+) or Deficit(-)
Table F4 Forecasts of Savings Flows
Table F4
US Model Forecasts of Savings Flows
Savings by Sector
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Quar. SH SF SB SR SG SS
20041 -164.6 75.9 120.1 540.6 -417.9 -154.1 20042 -145.1 -25.5 102.4 618.8 -394.3 -156.3 20043 -171.3 15.7 31.9 636.8 -377.3 -135.8 20044 -148.4 -192.7 114.0 719.7 -377.0 -115.6 20051 -352.2 -98.8 153.4 699.0 -299.1 -102.5 20052 -399.0 -12.6 115.5 708.6 -300.9 -111.7 20053 -432.4 87.1 11.9 739.4 -300.5 -105.5 20054 -401.2 -111.4 65.9 833.7 -284.8 -102.2 20061 -330.2 -292.4 125.2 794.3 -224.5 -72.4 20062 -270.3 -331.1 116.1 815.6 -249.1 -81.2 20063 -252.8 -354.6 81.0 858.0 -229.8 -102.0 20064 -176.9 -363.1 85.7 744.3 -182.8 -107.2 20071 -162.0 -310.7 8.0 798.8 -215.2 -118.9 20072 -167.8 -233.4 8.0 771.6 -258.5 -120.0 20073 -104.0 -170.6 13.3 686.7 -285.4 -140.0 20074 -59.2 -42.3 -53.0 626.1 -298.0 -173.6 20081 176.9 -279.8 -7.7 714.0 -407.1 -196.3 20082 437.2 -169.1 5.9 711.4 -797.3 -188.2 20083 307.1 51.4 -122.8 700.6 -675.0 -261.3 20084 489.4 105.0 -233.7 609.1 -701.6 -268.2 20091 467.9 455.8 -15.4 387.3 -1025.6 -270.0 20092 553.8 585.7 85.5 342.5 -1338.2 -229.3 20093 336.1 688.9 145.3 395.5 -1342.6 -223.2 20094 336.4 559.9 190.8 404.0 -1307.7 -183.4 20101 409.0 420.0 148.7 486.7 -1305.2 -159.3 20102 490.1 338.7 167.1 487.1 -1320.6 -162.4 20103 511.7 248.1 188.6 492.9 -1300.0 -141.3 20104 479.4 325.4 221.9 469.7 -1333.4 -163.0 20111 457.9 304.4 141.1 498.0 -1232.4 -169.1 20112 483.0 234.3 218.9 523.0 -1299.9 -159.2 20113 561.8 294.5 146.8 458.7 -1273.5 -188.4 20114 551.3 257.8 149.1 407.3 -1182.1 -183.5 20121 518.5 221.0 151.5 364.1 -1074.8 -180.2 20122 584.8 196.1 154.2 330.3 -1088.5 -177.0 20123 637.0 175.2 157.0 305.7 -1101.9 -172.9 20124 675.9 151.2 159.8 289.3 -1108.3 -168.0 20131 694.5 122.1 162.7 279.9 -1096.3 -162.8 20132 719.7 106.3 165.6 277.0 -1111.9 -156.7 20133 742.1 85.3 168.6 280.0 -1126.3 -149.7 20134 761.5 61.2 171.7 288.3 -1140.8 -141.8 20141 779.2 34.9 174.8 301.2 -1156.4 -133.6 20142 795.2 8.1 178.0 317.9 -1173.9 -125.3 20143 809.0 -17.6 181.2 337.9 -1193.6 -116.9 20144 818.5 -41.0 184.5 357.9 -1211.3 -108.7 20151 827.5 -63.0 187.9 379.9 -1231.4 -100.8 20152 835.6 -82.4 191.3 403.0 -1254.2 -93.3 20153 841.9 -98.1 194.7 427.0 -1279.3 -86.1 20154 845.2 -109.4 198.1 451.4 -1306.3 -78.9 20161 848.4 -118.1 201.5 475.7 -1335.3 -72.1 20162 851.1 -123.3 204.9 499.3 -1366.4 -65.5 20163 852.4 -124.2 208.3 522.0 -1399.3 -59.2 20164 850.5 -119.8 211.7 543.7 -1433.5 -52.7 20171 849.0 -112.8 215.1 564.0 -1469.0 -46.4 20172 846.7 -101.9 218.5 582.4 -1505.7 -40.1 20173 842.7 -86.6 221.9 599.1 -1543.4 -33.7 20174 835.2 -66.6 225.3 614.3 -1581.3 -26.9 20181 828.4 -45.2 228.7 627.6 -1619.5 -19.9 20182 821.0 -21.2 232.2 639.0 -1658.2 -12.8 20183 811.8 5.9 235.6 648.8 -1696.9 -5.2 20184 798.1 36.8 239.0 657.4 -1734.7 3.3 20191 786.0 66.7 242.5 664.9 -1772.2 12.1 20192 774.3 97.0 246.0 671.0 -1809.6 21.2 20193 761.2 128.9 249.6 676.2 -1846.7 30.9 20194 743.3 163.2 253.2 681.2 -1882.5 41.6 20201 727.7 194.6 256.8 685.8 -1917.6 52.8 20202 712.3 225.2 260.5 690.1 -1952.5 64.4 20203 695.0 256.2 264.3 694.6 -1986.8 76.7 20204 671.3 289.0 268.1 700.3 -2019.2 90.5 SH Saving, Households SF Saving, Firms SB Saving, Financial SR Saving, Foreign SG Saving, Federal SS Saving, State and Local
NIPA Table 1.1.5
NIPA Table 1.1.5
US Model Forecasts Gross Domestic Product
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Table 1.1.5 Quar. 1 2 3 4 5
20041 11589.9 8098.1 1057.5 1781.1 5259.5 20042 11762.9 8193.9 1062.9 1797.3 5333.7 20043 11936.4 8316.5 1075.8 1822.1 5418.6 20044 12123.9 8473.8 1095.2 1876.5 5502.1 20051 12361.9 8591.9 1105.2 1895.7 5591.0 20052 12499.9 8730.3 1134.7 1914.4 5681.2 20053 12728.6 8895.8 1142.3 1984.5 5769.0 20054 12901.5 8996.1 1111.2 2018.9 5866.0 20061 13161.5 9126.1 1150.5 2030.5 5945.1 20062 13330.4 9249.2 1145.8 2065.8 6037.6 20063 13432.8 9371.7 1156.9 2099.0 6115.8 20064 13584.2 9456.8 1166.6 2083.6 6206.6 20071 13758.5 9601.8 1175.6 2121.2 6305.0 20072 13976.8 9721.0 1187.0 2162.2 6371.8 20073 14126.4 9817.8 1194.5 2184.3 6439.0 20074 14253.3 9948.8 1196.8 2234.4 6517.6 20081 14279.2 10018.6 1163.0 2259.4 6596.2 20082 14415.4 10126.5 1146.6 2320.3 6659.6 20083 14395.1 10135.7 1106.6 2349.4 6679.7 20084 14081.8 9861.4 1019.3 2162.2 6679.9 20091 13893.7 9781.7 1020.1 2110.6 6651.0 20092 13854.0 9781.6 1009.5 2134.1 6638.0 20093 13920.5 9911.1 1050.1 2195.5 6665.5 20094 14087.4 9990.0 1038.8 2231.1 6720.1 20101 14278.0 10103.7 1058.0 2280.1 6765.6 20102 14467.8 10184.7 1071.7 2268.3 6844.7 20103 14605.5 10276.6 1087.5 2299.0 6890.1 20104 14755.1 10417.1 1124.7 2358.7 6933.7 20111 14867.8 10571.7 1154.5 2437.8 6979.4 20112 15003.9 10656.2 1146.5 2478.2 7031.5 20113 15216.5 10759.6 1158.4 2499.7 7101.5 20114 15553.7 10873.1 1171.5 2525.4 7176.2 20121 15876.6 10988.7 1184.8 2553.4 7250.5 20122 16195.1 11121.6 1201.9 2584.3 7335.3 20123 16522.6 11271.9 1222.0 2618.0 7431.9 20124 16856.5 11439.5 1243.6 2653.9 7542.0 20131 17186.6 11619.5 1266.1 2691.1 7662.3 20132 17534.2 11811.2 1289.8 2729.5 7791.9 20133 17898.2 12014.0 1315.0 2769.0 7929.9 20134 18272.4 12227.2 1341.5 2809.6 8076.1 20141 18650.8 12448.1 1369.4 2850.9 8227.7 20142 19029.9 12675.4 1398.4 2893.0 8384.0 20143 19408.2 12908.7 1428.3 2935.4 8545.0 20144 19785.8 13147.9 1458.4 2978.1 8711.4 20151 20160.4 13389.5 1489.2 3020.8 8879.5 20152 20530.7 13633.1 1520.5 3063.5 9049.1 20153 20897.3 13878.9 1552.0 3106.0 9220.9 20154 21262.1 14128.3 1583.3 3148.3 9396.6 20161 21623.4 14377.6 1615.0 3190.5 9572.1 20162 21980.0 14626.8 1647.0 3232.5 9747.3 20163 22332.7 14876.6 1679.1 3274.4 9923.1 20164 22684.4 15129.3 1710.7 3316.2 10102.3 20171 23033.3 15381.1 1742.6 3358.1 10280.4 20172 23379.5 15632.9 1774.5 3399.9 10458.5 20173 23724.5 15886.3 1806.2 3441.8 10638.2 20174 24072.3 16143.8 1837.4 3483.8 10822.5 20181 24420.9 16401.2 1868.9 3526.1 11006.3 20182 24770.1 16659.9 1900.5 3568.5 11190.9 20183 25122.3 16921.8 1931.9 3611.2 11378.6 20184 25482.4 17190.8 1962.6 3654.2 11574.0 20191 25847.3 17460.9 1993.8 3697.7 11769.4 20192 26215.7 17733.2 2025.4 3741.7 11966.0 20193 26589.6 18009.8 2057.2 3786.3 12166.3 20194 26974.8 18295.7 2088.3 3831.4 12376.0 20201 27367.4 18583.5 2120.0 3877.1 12586.4 20202 27766.3 18875.2 2152.3 3923.5 12799.5 20203 28174.0 19173.6 2184.5 3970.5 13018.6 20204 28597.5 19484.8 2215.9 4018.1 13250.8
Quar. 6 7 8 11 12
20041 1853.6 1802.2 1164.6 637.6 51.4 20042 1956.0 1880.0 1204.4 675.6 76.0 20043 2001.4 1940.6 1244.0 696.6 60.8 20044 2063.3 1991.8 1279.1 712.7 71.5 20051 2130.8 2040.1 1305.2 734.9 90.7 20052 2115.3 2099.4 1334.9 764.5 15.9 20053 2166.6 2155.6 1362.9 792.7 11.0 20054 2276.4 2194.2 1386.3 807.9 82.2 20061 2336.6 2270.6 1457.2 813.4 66.0 20062 2352.1 2279.7 1495.3 784.4 72.4 20063 2333.4 2264.3 1522.7 741.6 69.1 20064 2286.4 2254.1 1546.1 708.0 32.3 20071 2277.3 2260.3 1579.6 680.7 17.0 20072 2329.6 2282.1 1624.9 657.2 47.5 20073 2313.5 2274.1 1660.7 613.4 39.4 20074 2260.6 2248.0 1684.6 563.4 12.6 20081 2190.9 2205.2 1689.3 515.9 -14.3 20082 2165.3 2183.6 1689.0 494.6 -18.3 20083 2086.4 2130.5 1665.9 464.6 -44.1 20084 1913.0 1995.5 1580.9 414.6 -82.5 20091 1620.1 1799.6 1430.6 369.0 -179.5 20092 1493.8 1694.3 1351.9 342.4 -200.5 20093 1481.1 1678.2 1324.3 353.9 -197.1 20094 1592.2 1658.3 1305.1 353.2 -66.1 20101 1702.3 1658.0 1318.7 339.3 44.3 20102 1809.7 1731.6 1377.1 354.5 78.1 20103 1850.5 1743.8 1416.5 327.3 106.7 20104 1817.9 1779.2 1447.9 331.3 38.7 20111 1853.1 1791.1 1460.5 330.6 62.0 20112 1898.5 1827.7 1492.7 335.0 70.8 20113 1890.1 1890.3 1543.2 347.0 -0.1 20114 2014.7 1968.7 1607.2 361.5 46.0 20121 2123.4 2037.4 1663.6 373.7 86.1 20122 2217.7 2119.3 1728.1 391.2 98.4 20123 2311.8 2210.4 1798.5 411.9 101.4 20124 2409.6 2304.0 1869.8 434.3 105.5 20131 2506.3 2396.9 1940.4 456.4 109.4 20132 2596.9 2493.5 2014.8 478.8 103.3 20133 2697.6 2593.1 2092.0 501.0 104.5 20134 2802.0 2693.4 2170.5 522.9 108.5 20141 2906.2 2793.7 2249.5 544.2 112.5 20142 3007.3 2892.7 2328.1 564.6 114.6 20143 3103.8 2989.3 2405.2 584.0 114.5 20144 3195.3 3082.6 2480.1 602.5 112.7 20151 3282.3 3171.7 2551.7 620.0 110.6 20152 3363.6 3256.0 2619.3 636.7 107.6 20153 3438.9 3335.1 2682.6 652.5 103.8 20154 3508.9 3409.2 2741.5 667.7 99.7 20161 3574.8 3477.9 2795.5 682.3 96.9 20162 3635.1 3540.8 2844.2 696.5 94.3 20163 3689.5 3598.1 2887.7 710.3 91.4 20164 3738.6 3650.3 2926.5 723.9 88.3 20171 3784.2 3697.4 2960.1 737.2 86.8 20172 3824.8 3739.3 2988.9 750.5 85.4 20173 3860.7 3776.9 3013.3 763.6 83.8 20174 3893.1 3811.0 3034.3 776.7 82.1 20181 3924.3 3841.7 3051.9 789.8 82.6 20182 3952.6 3869.5 3066.5 803.0 83.1 20183 3978.5 3895.2 3079.0 816.2 83.3 20184 4003.5 3920.3 3090.7 829.6 83.2 20191 4030.4 3944.6 3101.5 843.0 85.8 20192 4056.7 3968.3 3111.7 856.6 88.4 20193 4082.4 3992.4 3122.2 870.2 90.0 20194 4109.1 4018.3 3134.3 884.0 90.8 20201 4140.0 4045.5 3147.6 897.9 94.5 20202 4172.1 4074.3 3162.4 911.9 97.9 20203 4205.4 4105.4 3179.5 926.0 100.0 20204 4241.8 4140.6 3200.4 940.2 101.3
Quar. 13 14 17 20 21 24
20041 -546.3 1138.8 1685.1 2184.5 805.1 1379.4 20042 -606.1 1170.8 1776.9 2219.1 819.9 1399.2 20043 -635.9 1185.4 1821.3 2254.4 839.1 1415.3 20044 -686.5 1225.9 1912.4 2273.3 834.5 1438.8 20051 -677.4 1262.4 1939.8 2316.6 862.0 1454.6 20052 -690.2 1298.5 1988.7 2344.5 867.2 1477.3 20053 -733.9 1308.2 2042.1 2400.1 894.1 1506.0 20054 -789.3 1351.3 2140.6 2418.3 881.9 1536.4 20061 -775.8 1414.0 2189.8 2474.6 928.5 1546.1 20062 -781.4 1456.0 2237.4 2510.5 930.3 1580.2 20063 -805.7 1476.0 2281.7 2533.4 932.2 1601.2 20064 -714.3 1538.2 2252.5 2555.3 935.9 1619.4 20071 -724.9 1575.5 2300.4 2604.3 944.0 1660.3 20072 -729.8 1619.1 2348.9 2656.0 968.7 1687.3 20073 -703.4 1690.3 2393.7 2698.5 992.1 1706.4 20074 -694.3 1761.8 2456.1 2738.2 1000.6 1737.6 20081 -742.3 1819.3 2561.6 2812.0 1042.7 1769.3 20082 -746.1 1922.8 2668.9 2869.7 1066.0 1803.7 20083 -756.8 1933.8 2690.6 2929.8 1100.6 1829.2 20084 -593.7 1711.1 2304.8 2901.1 1111.2 1789.9 20091 -383.5 1522.2 1905.7 2875.4 1105.3 1770.1 20092 -338.3 1520.8 1859.1 2916.9 1137.2 1779.7 20093 -406.7 1590.3 1997.0 2935.0 1157.7 1777.3 20094 -437.5 1699.0 2136.5 2942.7 1170.6 1772.1 20101 -495.8 1749.5 2245.3 2967.8 1195.2 1772.6 20102 -531.2 1813.8 2345.0 3004.6 1224.5 1780.1 20103 -540.3 1860.6 2400.9 3018.7 1237.5 1781.2 20104 -500.2 1935.3 2435.5 3020.3 1234.3 1786.0 20111 -571.3 2024.1 2595.4 3014.3 1219.9 1794.4 20112 -586.7 2096.5 2683.2 3035.9 1237.1 1798.8 20113 -512.2 2148.7 2660.9 3079.0 1254.6 1824.4 20114 -451.2 2203.3 2654.5 3117.1 1266.1 1851.1 20121 -399.2 2260.0 2659.2 3163.7 1285.1 1878.6 20122 -356.4 2318.9 2675.3 3212.1 1305.1 1907.0 20123 -322.6 2379.8 2702.4 3261.4 1325.3 1936.1 20124 -296.9 2442.9 2739.8 3304.4 1338.5 1965.9 20131 -278.3 2508.0 2786.3 3339.2 1342.8 1996.4 20132 -266.1 2575.2 2841.4 3392.3 1364.8 2027.5 20133 -259.8 2644.6 2904.4 3446.5 1387.3 2059.2 20134 -258.6 2716.2 2974.8 3501.8 1410.2 2091.6 20141 -261.8 2790.0 3051.7 3558.2 1433.7 2124.6 20142 -268.5 2866.0 3134.5 3615.6 1457.5 2158.1 20143 -278.1 2944.2 3222.3 3673.9 1481.7 2192.1 20144 -290.1 3024.4 3314.5 3732.8 1506.3 2226.5 20151 -303.6 3106.7 3410.3 3792.3 1531.0 2261.2 20152 -318.1 3190.7 3508.8 3852.1 1556.0 2296.2 20153 -332.9 3276.5 3609.4 3912.3 1581.1 2331.2 20154 -347.7 3364.1 3711.8 3972.6 1606.2 2366.4 20161 -362.1 3453.2 3815.3 4033.1 1631.5 2401.6 20162 -375.4 3544.0 3919.4 4093.5 1656.7 2436.8 20163 -387.4 3636.3 4023.7 4154.0 1682.0 2472.0 20164 -397.9 3730.2 4128.2 4214.4 1707.3 2507.1 20171 -406.7 3825.7 4232.4 4274.8 1732.6 2542.2 20172 -413.3 3922.7 4336.0 4335.1 1757.9 2577.3 20173 -417.8 4021.4 4439.2 4395.5 1783.2 2612.3 20174 -420.5 4121.7 4542.2 4455.8 1808.5 2647.4 20181 -421.0 4223.9 4644.9 4516.3 1833.9 2682.4 20182 -419.4 4327.8 4747.2 4577.0 1859.3 2717.6 20183 -415.8 4433.8 4849.6 4637.8 1884.9 2752.9 20184 -410.9 4541.8 4952.7 4698.9 1910.6 2788.3 20191 -404.5 4652.0 5056.5 4760.5 1936.5 2824.0 20192 -396.6 4764.5 5161.1 4822.5 1962.5 2859.9 20193 -387.6 4879.4 5267.0 4885.0 1988.8 2896.2 20194 -378.1 4996.9 5375.0 4948.2 2015.4 2932.7 20201 -368.1 5117.2 5485.3 5012.0 2042.3 2969.7 20202 -357.6 5240.2 5597.8 5076.6 2069.4 3007.1 20203 -347.0 5366.3 5713.3 5142.0 2097.0 3045.0 20204 -337.4 5495.5 5832.9 5208.3 2124.9 3083.4
Line 1 Gross domestic product Line 2 Personal consumption expenditures Line 3 Durable goods Line 4 Nondurable goods Line 5 Services Line 6 Gross private domestic investment Line 7 Fixed investment Line 8 Nonresidential Line 11 Residential Line 12 Change in private inventories Line 13 Net exports of goods and services Line 14 Exports Line 17 Imports Line 20 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment Line 21 Federal Line 24 State and local
NIPA Table 1.1.6
NIPA Table 1.1.6
US Model Forecasts Gross Domestic Product
Billions of 2005 Dollars
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Table 1.1.6 Quar. 1 2 3 4 5
20041 12132.7 8444.0 1024.4 1894.9 5524.7 20042 12210.8 8481.4 1030.8 1894.7 5555.9 20043 12301.7 8555.0 1051.2 1909.7 5594.1 20044 12402.4 8647.1 1069.9 1930.2 5647.0 20051 12530.3 8716.0 1081.2 1951.9 5682.9 20052 12586.1 8801.5 1112.6 1961.7 5727.2 20053 12686.0 8868.1 1128.4 1969.4 5770.3 20054 12751.1 8890.3 1099.7 1990.6 5800.0 20061 12912.1 8981.5 1142.4 2001.4 5837.7 20062 12964.6 9035.5 1143.3 2011.4 5880.8 20063 12966.2 9089.8 1160.2 2021.3 5908.3 20064 13054.5 9174.6 1176.2 2047.5 5950.9 20071 13072.1 9225.8 1190.8 2053.9 5981.1 20072 13189.7 9261.9 1207.5 2053.2 6001.2 20073 13286.1 9303.7 1223.0 2062.7 6018.0 20074 13342.2 9331.8 1230.0 2064.8 6037.0 20081 13283.1 9306.1 1199.3 2047.7 6059.1 20082 13326.8 9301.8 1190.5 2059.2 6052.1 20083 13203.1 9208.8 1152.2 2030.9 6025.7 20084 12899.3 9079.3 1070.7 2000.6 6008.0 20091 12678.7 9045.3 1077.2 1995.6 5972.5 20092 12656.7 9001.7 1066.1 1988.0 5947.6 20093 12710.1 9060.2 1116.5 1997.9 5945.8 20094 12829.1 9067.9 1103.0 2013.0 5951.9 20101 12953.6 9132.4 1129.2 2036.7 5966.5 20102 13074.4 9200.5 1150.7 2046.4 6003.4 20103 13155.7 9264.0 1175.1 2061.6 6027.3 20104 13232.3 9352.7 1222.7 2083.3 6046.7 20111 13244.0 9406.9 1257.1 2091.4 6058.4 20112 13286.4 9406.1 1243.1 2091.9 6071.1 20113 13386.4 9443.1 1248.8 2098.0 6096.3 20114 13564.0 9481.5 1254.8 2105.9 6120.8 20121 13720.0 9516.2 1260.2 2114.5 6141.5 20122 13870.4 9562.0 1269.2 2124.6 6168.2 20123 14023.2 9618.5 1280.6 2136.0 6202.0 20124 14173.9 9685.4 1293.0 2148.1 6244.3 20131 14314.5 9758.9 1305.7 2160.6 6292.6 20132 14465.1 9838.7 1319.2 2173.4 6346.2 20133 14621.5 9924.0 1333.6 2186.2 6404.1 20134 14779.0 10014.3 1348.8 2199.2 6466.2 20141 14933.5 10107.5 1364.9 2212.2 6530.3 20142 15082.9 10203.0 1381.6 2225.2 6596.2 20143 15226.9 10300.5 1398.7 2238.0 6663.8 20144 15366.0 10400.6 1415.7 2250.7 6734.1 20151 15499.2 10500.9 1433.1 2263.2 6804.6 20152 15626.5 10601.5 1450.7 2275.6 6875.3 20153 15749.2 10703.1 1468.3 2287.8 6947.0 20154 15869.1 10806.7 1485.6 2299.9 7021.2 20161 15985.5 10910.1 1503.2 2312.0 7094.9 20162 16098.0 11013.4 1521.1 2324.1 7168.3 20163 16207.7 11117.3 1538.9 2336.3 7242.1 20164 16316.7 11223.4 1556.3 2348.7 7318.4 20171 16423.9 11329.0 1573.9 2361.2 7393.9 20172 16529.5 11434.9 1591.5 2374.0 7469.5 20173 16634.7 11542.1 1609.0 2386.9 7546.2 20174 16742.0 11652.2 1625.9 2400.1 7626.2 20181 16849.7 11762.2 1643.1 2413.5 7705.6 20182 16957.7 11872.9 1660.3 2427.1 7785.4 20183 17067.4 11985.5 1677.4 2441.0 7867.1 20184 17181.7 12102.2 1693.7 2455.0 7953.5 20191 17298.0 12219.0 1710.3 2469.4 8039.4 20192 17415.4 12336.3 1727.1 2484.0 8125.2 20193 17535.0 12455.6 1743.9 2498.8 8212.9 20194 17660.0 12579.6 1759.9 2513.9 8305.8 20201 17787.5 12703.5 1776.3 2529.1 8398.0 20202 17916.6 12828.5 1792.9 2544.6 8490.9 20203 18048.8 12956.1 1809.4 2560.3 8586.4 20204 18187.9 13089.8 1824.7 2576.0 8689.1
Quar. 6 7 8 11 12
20041 1971.2 1918.8 1214.3 704.5 52.4 20042 2056.8 1978.1 1247.1 731.0 78.7 20043 2082.2 2019.5 1281.1 738.4 62.7 20044 2125.1 2053.5 1309.3 744.2 71.6 20051 2170.3 2078.9 1321.1 757.8 91.4 20052 2131.4 2115.9 1340.5 775.4 15.5 20053 2154.8 2143.0 1359.7 783.3 11.8 20054 2232.4 2151.4 1367.9 783.5 81.0 20061 2267.6 2201.8 1426.6 775.2 65.8 20062 2264.8 2192.3 1452.3 740.0 72.5 20063 2232.5 2165.0 1467.7 697.3 67.5 20064 2167.1 2135.3 1475.1 660.2 31.8 20071 2147.1 2129.8 1498.5 631.3 17.3 20072 2193.8 2148.9 1537.5 611.4 44.9 20073 2178.2 2142.1 1571.4 570.7 36.1 20074 2128.3 2115.7 1592.3 523.4 12.6 20081 2057.9 2070.4 1589.1 481.3 -12.5 20082 2028.6 2042.8 1580.0 462.8 -14.2 20083 1938.8 1976.9 1539.1 437.8 -38.1 20084 1757.8 1838.1 1442.3 395.8 -80.3 20091 1506.2 1667.8 1312.9 354.9 -161.6 20092 1408.9 1591.9 1257.6 334.3 -183.0 20093 1416.5 1595.2 1247.0 348.2 -178.7 20094 1523.5 1580.0 1235.2 344.8 -56.5 20101 1624.0 1584.1 1253.3 330.8 39.9 20102 1720.8 1656.2 1308.0 348.2 64.6 20103 1757.0 1664.7 1343.6 321.1 92.3 20104 1733.2 1694.9 1371.8 323.1 38.3 20111 1749.1 1700.0 1378.9 321.1 49.1 20112 1773.9 1724.3 1400.2 324.1 49.6 20113 1773.0 1773.1 1439.3 333.8 -0.1 20114 1866.6 1834.8 1489.3 345.5 31.9 20121 1944.8 1885.6 1530.9 354.7 59.2 20122 2014.5 1947.3 1578.7 368.6 67.1 20123 2084.4 2015.7 1630.6 385.1 68.7 20124 2155.6 2084.7 1681.8 402.9 70.9 20131 2224.2 2151.3 1731.3 420.0 72.9 20132 2288.0 2219.7 1782.7 436.9 68.3 20133 2357.4 2288.9 1835.5 453.4 68.5 20134 2427.7 2357.1 1888.0 469.1 70.5 20141 2496.2 2423.7 1939.7 483.9 72.5 20142 2560.8 2487.6 1989.9 497.7 73.2 20143 2620.6 2548.2 2037.8 510.3 72.5 20144 2675.4 2604.8 2082.9 521.9 70.7 20151 2725.6 2656.8 2124.4 532.4 68.7 20152 2770.4 2704.1 2162.1 542.0 66.3 20153 2810.0 2746.5 2195.7 550.8 63.5 20154 2845.0 2784.5 2225.5 559.0 60.4 20161 2876.1 2817.8 2251.1 566.7 58.3 20162 2902.7 2846.4 2272.5 574.0 56.3 20163 2924.7 2870.6 2289.7 580.9 54.1 20164 2942.7 2890.8 2303.2 587.6 51.9 20171 2957.8 2907.1 2313.0 594.1 50.7 20172 2969.2 2919.7 2319.1 600.6 49.5 20173 2977.4 2929.1 2322.2 606.9 48.2 20174 2983.2 2936.2 2322.9 613.3 47.0 20181 2987.9 2940.9 2321.3 619.6 46.9 20182 2990.6 2943.7 2317.7 626.0 46.9 20183 2991.8 2945.1 2312.7 632.4 46.7 20184 2992.6 2946.2 2307.4 638.8 46.4 20191 2994.5 2946.9 2301.7 645.2 47.6 20192 2996.0 2947.3 2295.5 651.7 48.7 20193 2997.3 2948.0 2289.8 658.2 49.3 20194 2999.5 2950.0 2285.2 664.8 49.5 20201 3004.2 2953.0 2281.7 671.3 51.2 20202 3009.7 2957.0 2279.2 677.8 52.7 20203 3016.1 2962.6 2278.3 684.3 53.5 20204 3024.7 2970.8 2280.0 690.8 53.9
Quar. 13 14 17 20
20041 -632.2 1197.0 1829.2 2355.1 20042 -686.8 1215.8 1902.6 2363.6 20043 -705.6 1224.8 1930.4 2372.1 20044 -726.6 1252.8 1979.4 2357.6 20051 -714.7 1276.2 1990.9 2359.9 20052 -709.3 1303.6 2012.9 2362.4 20053 -721.4 1303.9 2025.3 2383.9 20054 -745.4 1336.7 2082.1 2373.3 20061 -732.7 1388.8 2121.5 2397.2 20062 -733.2 1412.1 2145.3 2399.1 20063 -756.7 1414.2 2170.9 2402.8 20064 -694.7 1473.5 2168.2 2409.5 20071 -703.2 1496.6 2199.8 2406.5 20072 -689.3 1521.4 2210.7 2426.7 20073 -638.0 1578.0 2216.0 2448.2 20074 -564.5 1622.0 2186.5 2455.5 20081 -550.1 1644.0 2194.1 2474.8 20082 -486.2 1693.9 2180.1 2485.6 20083 -464.5 1678.8 2143.3 2512.8 20084 -478.0 1580.6 2058.6 2523.6 20091 -404.1 1451.2 1855.3 2512.4 20092 -331.8 1449.4 1781.2 2549.9 20093 -352.4 1497.3 1849.7 2558.8 20094 -346.8 1578.4 1925.2 2553.5 20101 -376.8 1606.2 1983.0 2546.1 20102 -437.3 1645.1 2082.4 2570.2 20103 -458.6 1684.9 2143.5 2576.8 20104 -414.1 1716.9 2131.0 2558.6 20111 -424.3 1749.6 2173.9 2519.7 20112 -405.6 1775.4 2181.0 2512.9 20113 -349.2 1805.7 2154.9 2520.4 20114 -305.2 1836.5 2141.7 2522.0 20121 -269.7 1867.8 2137.5 2529.6 20122 -242.7 1899.7 2142.4 2537.6 20123 -224.0 1932.1 2156.1 2545.3 20124 -212.8 1965.0 2177.8 2546.6 20131 -208.0 1998.6 2206.6 2540.3 20132 -209.1 2032.7 2241.8 2548.5 20133 -215.7 2067.3 2283.0 2556.7 20134 -227.1 2102.6 2329.6 2565.0 20141 -242.6 2138.5 2381.0 2573.3 20142 -261.6 2174.9 2436.5 2581.7 20143 -283.5 2212.0 2495.5 2590.1 20144 -307.6 2249.8 2557.4 2598.5 20151 -333.3 2288.2 2621.5 2607.0 20152 -360.0 2327.2 2687.2 2615.5 20153 -387.1 2366.9 2754.0 2624.0 20154 -414.3 2407.3 2821.6 2632.6 20161 -441.1 2448.3 2889.5 2641.3 20162 -467.2 2490.1 2957.3 2650.0 20163 -492.1 2532.6 3024.7 2658.7 20164 -515.9 2575.8 3091.7 2667.4 20171 -538.2 2619.7 3157.9 2676.3 20172 -558.9 2664.4 3223.3 2685.1 20173 -577.9 2709.8 3287.7 2694.0 20174 -595.4 2756.1 3351.5 2703.0 20181 -611.4 2803.1 3414.5 2712.0 20182 -625.9 2850.9 3476.8 2721.0 20183 -639.0 2899.5 3538.6 2730.1 20184 -651.4 2949.0 3600.4 2739.2 20191 -662.9 2999.3 3662.2 2748.4 20192 -673.6 3050.5 3724.1 2757.6 20193 -683.8 3102.5 3786.4 2766.8 20194 -694.2 3155.4 3849.7 2776.1 20201 -704.8 3209.3 3914.0 2785.5 20202 -715.5 3264.0 3979.5 2794.9 20203 -726.8 3319.7 4046.5 2804.4 20204 -739.5 3376.3 4115.8 2813.9
Line 1 Gross domestic product Line 2 Personal consumption expenditures Line 3 Durable goods Line 4 Nondurable goods Line 5 Services Line 6 Gross private domestic investment Line 7 Fixed investment Line 8 Nonresidential Line 11 Residential Line 12 Change in private inventories Line 13 Net exports of goods and services Line 14 Exports Line 17 Imports Line 20 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment
Old NIPA Table 3.2
Old NIPA Table 3.2
US Model Forecasts Fed. Gov. Receipts and Expenditures
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Old Table 3.2 Quar. 1 2 6 9 13
20041 1904.6 768.8 226.4 100.5 793.5 20042 1950.3 788.8 243.2 100.6 802.0 20043 2006.3 812.7 262.6 101.6 813.0 20044 2036.5 826.7 269.0 101.9 822.0 20051 2190.6 894.9 333.8 103.7 840.5 20052 2218.3 919.3 326.7 107.9 845.3 20053 2264.8 946.1 333.6 106.8 859.0 20054 2326.8 967.0 369.8 104.6 865.7 20061 2431.6 1023.1 383.8 107.0 896.9 20062 2459.0 1034.7 396.1 107.4 899.8 20063 2502.8 1053.9 415.5 107.8 904.0 20064 2518.9 1088.0 384.6 106.1 917.8 20071 2593.4 1136.5 392.8 100.7 938.4 20072 2604.9 1155.1 384.0 101.0 940.1 20073 2596.0 1174.2 349.1 102.6 944.9 20074 2610.8 1196.4 325.4 103.0 957.8 20081 2585.9 1200.2 276.9 102.7 975.9 20082 2556.5 1182.0 263.8 107.9 972.5 20083 2504.5 1163.3 232.1 104.5 974.4 20084 2398.9 1116.0 161.7 101.0 969.7 20091 2174.3 915.7 147.7 95.4 951.2 20092 2311.9 996.6 176.7 105.2 951.7 20093 2406.5 1069.8 225.9 103.3 946.6 20094 2459.1 1084.2 256.3 104.5 945.9 20101 2536.9 1087.5 322.3 103.6 960.3 20102 2604.5 1144.7 318.1 108.0 969.9 20103 2681.9 1178.3 348.9 110.2 975.5 20104 2425.5 942.8 329.1 108.7 977.9 20111 2514.5 1097.2 345.4 113.1 892.5 20112 2562.1 1142.1 334.2 119.0 901.3 20113 2629.9 1175.2 345.7 120.2 922.4 20114 2700.7 1210.1 359.2 121.4 942.5 20121 2890.2 1244.9 370.3 122.7 1083.6 20122 2960.6 1280.2 379.9 124.2 1106.5 20123 3032.8 1316.6 389.3 125.9 1130.1 20124 3106.3 1353.9 398.3 127.7 1154.2 20131 3179.1 1391.4 406.2 129.8 1178.4 20132 3255.3 1430.4 414.9 131.9 1203.5 20133 3334.9 1471.0 424.3 134.2 1229.5 20134 3416.9 1513.1 433.7 136.5 1256.3 20141 3500.0 1556.2 442.6 139.0 1283.7 20142 3583.6 1600.0 450.8 141.5 1311.3 20143 3667.1 1644.2 458.5 144.2 1338.9 20144 3750.1 1688.2 465.7 146.8 1366.5 20151 3832.5 1732.3 472.4 149.5 1393.9 20152 3914.0 1776.2 478.7 152.2 1421.0 20153 3994.6 1820.0 484.6 155.0 1447.8 20154 4074.8 1863.6 490.4 157.8 1474.2 20161 4154.4 1907.2 496.1 160.6 1500.3 20162 4233.2 1950.5 501.4 163.3 1526.1 20163 4311.2 1993.6 506.6 166.1 1551.5 20164 4389.1 2036.7 512.0 169.0 1576.6 20171 4466.8 2079.8 517.3 171.8 1601.5 20172 4544.1 2122.8 522.5 174.6 1626.2 20173 4621.6 2166.0 527.9 177.4 1650.7 20174 4699.9 2209.5 533.8 180.3 1675.3 20181 4778.9 2253.4 539.8 183.2 1699.9 20182 4858.6 2297.7 546.1 186.0 1724.6 20183 4939.5 2342.6 552.7 189.0 1749.4 20184 5022.5 2388.4 560.1 192.0 1774.7 20191 5107.2 2435.1 567.8 195.0 1800.3 20192 5193.5 2482.7 575.9 198.0 1826.3 20193 5281.5 2531.2 584.3 201.1 1852.6 20194 5372.6 2581.1 593.6 204.3 1879.7 20201 5466.0 2632.3 603.3 207.5 1907.3 20202 5561.6 2684.7 613.4 210.8 1935.5 20203 5659.8 2738.5 624.0 214.1 1964.2 20204 5761.9 2794.1 635.5 217.6 1994.0
Quar . 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 25 29
20041 2314.1 706.4 1026.5 987.4 39.1 339.6 200.3 42.8 -409.5 20042 2334.8 717.7 1024.5 995.9 28.6 349.3 199.2 42.6 -384.5 20043 2367.8 732.5 1034.8 1004.8 30.0 347.8 207.8 44.9 -361.5 20044 2398.8 729.0 1045.9 1017.2 28.7 360.0 211.2 52.7 -362.3 20051 2479.6 756.9 1090.4 1045.7 44.7 356.4 216.7 59.2 -289.0 20052 2506.6 758.8 1087.5 1055.0 32.5 359.9 236.7 63.7 -288.3 20053 2552.3 780.6 1105.8 1069.4 36.4 362.4 237.5 66.0 -287.5 20054 2594.3 767.1 1128.5 1082.2 46.3 366.2 265.1 67.4 -267.5 20061 2638.8 810.4 1170.1 1138.5 31.6 354.6 246.4 57.3 -207.2 20062 2688.5 808.5 1199.8 1161.7 38.1 361.0 265.4 53.8 -229.5 20063 2718.4 813.1 1209.4 1170.2 39.2 365.1 278.4 52.4 -215.6 20064 2681.8 812.1 1208.5 1183.8 24.7 355.5 253.8 51.9 -162.9 20071 2795.1 822.8 1267.0 1216.9 50.1 377.3 275.4 52.6 -201.7 20072 2842.3 840.4 1257.3 1227.4 29.9 381.6 312.7 50.3 -237.4 20073 2861.3 862.0 1275.9 1239.3 36.6 382.1 293.6 47.7 -265.3 20074 2887.4 870.4 1302.9 1256.3 46.6 381.9 282.2 50.0 -276.6 20081 2974.6 908.6 1343.8 1296.2 47.6 386.8 284.5 50.9 -388.7 20082 3321.0 918.7 1666.9 1623.0 43.9 396.3 286.6 52.5 -764.5 20083 3143.7 946.2 1452.1 1411.7 40.4 394.1 297.2 54.1 -639.2 20084 3060.5 953.5 1425.3 1389.6 35.7 404.8 219.9 57.0 -661.6 20091 3168.4 955.2 1532.6 1488.3 44.3 438.4 182.7 59.5 -994.1 20092 3614.9 981.2 1823.7 1765.3 58.4 503.4 246.3 60.3 -1303.0 20093 3711.9 997.8 1909.7 1843.2 66.5 486.4 246.8 71.2 -1305.4 20094 3728.6 1012.4 1920.9 1871.5 49.4 501.4 234.1 59.8 -1269.5 20101 3808.7 1033.9 1965.2 1900.4 64.8 514.8 235.3 59.5 -1271.8 20102 3882.7 1056.0 1986.6 1930.6 56.0 524.2 256.3 59.6 -1278.2 20103 3939.7 1066.6 2021.8 1960.9 60.9 542.1 249.0 60.2 -1257.8 20104 3713.0 1059.6 1786.0 1725.4 60.6 544.9 259.4 63.1 -1287.5 20111 3720.5 1059.1 1816.7 1757.8 58.9 514.5 268.3 61.9 -1206.0 20112 3839.0 1077.7 1857.8 1791.3 66.5 527.6 312.7 63.2 -1276.9 20113 3880.0 1093.0 1887.4 1819.8 67.6 501.6 333.9 64.1 -1250.1 20114 3859.0 1101.8 1826.3 1757.4 68.9 511.0 354.8 65.1 -1158.4 20121 3940.9 1118.1 1861.1 1790.9 70.2 520.8 374.8 66.2 -1050.7 20122 4024.5 1135.4 1896.2 1824.7 71.5 530.6 395.0 67.3 -1064.0 20123 4109.8 1152.8 1932.2 1859.3 72.9 540.7 415.7 68.4 -1077.0 20124 4189.3 1163.0 1968.9 1894.6 74.3 551.2 436.6 69.6 -1083.0 20131 4249.7 1164.3 1995.2 1919.5 75.7 561.9 457.5 70.8 -1070.6 20132 4341.0 1183.3 2034.2 1957.0 77.2 572.9 478.6 72.0 -1085.7 20133 4434.6 1202.6 2074.5 1995.7 78.7 584.2 500.0 73.2 -1099.7 20134 4530.6 1222.3 2115.9 2035.6 80.3 595.9 521.9 74.5 -1113.7 20141 4628.9 1242.5 2158.4 2076.5 81.9 607.9 544.3 75.8 -1128.8 20142 4729.4 1262.9 2202.0 2118.4 83.6 620.2 567.2 77.2 -1145.8 20143 4832.2 1283.7 2246.4 2161.2 85.3 632.7 590.9 78.5 -1165.1 20144 4932.4 1304.7 2291.8 2204.8 87.0 645.5 610.5 79.9 -1182.3 20151 5034.4 1325.9 2337.9 2249.2 88.7 658.4 630.8 81.3 -1201.9 20152 5138.1 1347.2 2384.7 2294.2 90.5 671.6 651.7 82.8 -1224.1 20153 5243.4 1368.7 2432.1 2339.8 92.3 685.0 673.4 84.2 -1248.7 20154 5350.1 1390.2 2480.1 2386.0 94.1 698.5 695.6 85.7 -1275.2 20161 5458.1 1411.7 2528.5 2432.6 96.0 712.1 718.6 87.1 -1303.7 20162 5567.4 1433.3 2577.4 2479.6 97.8 725.9 742.2 88.6 -1334.3 20163 5677.9 1454.9 2626.7 2527.0 99.7 739.8 766.5 90.1 -1366.7 20164 5789.4 1476.4 2676.3 2574.8 101.6 753.8 791.3 91.5 -1400.3 20171 5902.0 1497.9 2726.4 2622.9 103.5 767.9 816.8 93.0 -1435.2 20172 6015.6 1519.5 2776.8 2671.4 105.4 782.0 842.8 94.5 -1471.5 20173 6130.2 1541.0 2827.5 2720.2 107.3 796.3 869.4 96.0 -1508.7 20174 6245.9 1562.5 2878.7 2769.4 109.3 810.7 896.4 97.5 -1546.0 20181 6362.6 1584.1 2930.3 2819.1 111.2 825.3 923.9 99.0 -1583.7 20182 6480.5 1605.8 2982.3 2869.2 113.2 839.9 951.9 100.5 -1621.8 20183 6599.4 1627.5 3034.9 2919.7 115.2 854.7 980.3 102.1 -1660.0 20184 6719.7 1649.3 3088.1 2970.9 117.2 869.7 1009.0 103.6 -1697.2 20191 6841.4 1671.3 3141.9 3022.6 119.2 884.9 1038.2 105.2 -1734.2 20192 6964.5 1693.4 3196.4 3075.1 121.3 900.2 1067.8 106.7 -1771.0 20193 7089.1 1715.7 3251.6 3128.2 123.4 915.8 1097.7 108.3 -1807.5 20194 7215.3 1738.2 3307.6 3182.1 125.5 931.5 1128.0 109.9 -1842.7 20201 7343.3 1761.0 3364.5 3236.8 127.7 947.6 1158.7 111.5 -1877.3 20202 7473.2 1784.0 3422.4 3292.5 129.9 963.9 1189.8 113.2 -1911.6 20203 7605.1 1807.3 3481.1 3349.0 132.1 980.4 1221.3 114.8 -1945.3 20204 7739.1 1831.0 3541.0 3406.6 134.4 997.3 1253.3 116.5 -1977.1
Line 1 Receipts Line 2 Personal tax and nontax receipts Line 6 Corporate profit tax accruals Line 9 Indirect business tax and nontax accruals Line 13 Contributions for social insurance Line 14 Current expenditures Line 15 Consumption expenditures Line 16 Transfer payments (net) Line 17 To persons Line 18 To rest of the World (net) Line 19 Grants-in-aid to state and local governments Line 20 Net interest paid Line 25 Subsidies less current surplus of government enterprises Line 29 NIPA surplus(+) or deficit(-)
Old NIPA Table 3.3
Old NIPA Table 3.3
US Model Forecasts S&L Gov. Receipts and Expenditures
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Old Table 3.3 Quar. 1 2 6 7 11 12
20041 1436.6 240.5 37.8 758.1 23.0 339.6 20042 1460.0 237.6 40.8 770.1 23.9 349.3 20043 1488.5 252.0 43.9 781.6 24.5 347.8 20044 1533.2 264.3 44.3 800.5 24.8 360.0 20051 1562.5 269.3 55.3 818.1 25.1 356.4 20052 1583.6 273.0 53.0 834.2 25.1 359.9 20053 1606.9 277.9 53.3 849.9 24.8 362.4 20054 1636.8 286.7 58.2 862.4 24.1 366.2 20061 1657.3 298.4 59.6 882.1 23.1 354.6 20062 1683.3 305.5 60.2 894.1 22.1 361.0 20063 1691.7 300.4 61.6 902.1 21.3 365.1 20064 1691.0 305.5 55.1 912.5 20.6 355.5 20071 1752.2 322.3 59.1 931.4 19.7 377.3 20072 1768.7 325.3 59.3 940.6 18.9 381.6 20073 1771.4 323.3 56.2 947.3 18.5 382.1 20074 1781.2 321.6 56.5 957.4 18.6 381.9 20081 1792.8 335.9 50.1 954.5 18.7 386.8 20082 1846.4 369.2 51.5 963.6 18.8 396.3 20083 1803.1 325.7 52.8 964.2 19.0 394.1 20084 1757.7 306.8 35.0 944.1 19.4 404.8 20091 1755.0 282.3 37.6 929.3 19.7 438.4 20092 1815.5 275.7 45.0 923.7 20.1 503.4 20093 1831.9 289.9 53.1 933.5 20.3 486.4 20094 1861.5 291.3 53.9 944.1 20.5 501.4 20101 1895.6 289.9 64.2 955.5 20.6 514.8 20102 1904.5 286.6 58.2 961.9 20.7 524.2 20103 1944.2 300.5 57.9 969.0 20.9 542.1 20104 1961.7 313.1 51.1 977.4 21.1 544.9 20111 1955.3 319.0 51.7 994.6 21.3 514.5 20112 1974.9 319.7 50.0 1001.5 21.6 527.6 20113 1969.0 327.2 51.7 1011.2 21.9 501.6 20114 2000.2 335.1 53.8 1021.9 22.3 511.0 20121 2031.8 343.1 55.4 1032.7 22.6 520.8 20122 2064.9 351.1 56.9 1045.2 23.0 530.6 20123 2100.2 359.4 58.3 1059.4 23.4 540.7 20124 2137.6 367.9 59.6 1075.1 23.8 551.2 20131 2176.4 376.5 60.8 1092.0 24.2 561.9 20132 2217.1 385.3 62.1 1110.1 24.6 572.9 20133 2259.6 394.5 63.5 1129.1 25.0 584.2 20134 2303.7 404.0 64.9 1149.1 25.5 595.9 20141 2349.1 413.7 66.2 1169.9 25.9 607.9 20142 2395.4 423.6 67.5 1191.3 26.4 620.2 20143 2442.6 433.5 68.6 1213.2 26.8 632.7 20144 2490.4 443.4 69.7 1235.7 27.3 645.5 20151 2538.7 453.3 70.7 1258.4 27.8 658.4 20152 2587.3 463.1 71.7 1281.3 28.3 671.6 20153 2636.2 472.9 72.5 1304.4 28.8 685.0 20154 2685.5 482.7 73.4 1327.8 29.3 698.5 20161 2734.9 492.4 74.3 1351.3 29.8 712.1 20162 2784.3 502.0 75.1 1374.7 30.3 725.9 20163 2833.8 511.6 75.8 1398.1 30.8 739.8 20164 2883.7 521.2 76.6 1421.9 31.3 753.8 20171 2933.6 530.7 77.4 1445.6 31.8 767.9 20172 2983.5 540.2 78.2 1469.2 32.3 782.0 20173 3033.7 549.7 79.0 1493.0 32.8 796.3 20174 3084.6 559.3 79.9 1517.2 33.3 810.7 20181 3135.6 568.9 80.8 1541.4 33.8 825.3 20182 3187.0 578.5 81.7 1565.7 34.4 839.9 20183 3239.0 588.3 82.7 1590.4 34.9 854.7 20184 3292.1 598.2 83.8 1615.6 35.4 869.7 20191 3345.8 608.3 85.0 1641.0 35.9 884.9 20192 3400.1 618.5 86.2 1666.6 36.5 900.2 20193 3455.2 628.9 87.5 1692.6 37.0 915.8 20194 3511.8 639.6 88.9 1719.5 37.6 931.5 20201 3569.2 650.5 90.3 1746.5 38.1 947.6 20202 3627.5 661.6 91.8 1773.9 38.7 963.9 20203 3687.1 673.0 93.4 1802.0 39.2 980.4 20204 3748.7 684.7 95.1 1831.2 39.8 997.3
Quar. 13 14 15 16 19 20 23 24
20041 1459.4 1116.8 323.0 21.1 -1.7 -1.5 0.0 -22.8 20042 1480.9 1129.1 332.7 19.9 -1.8 -0.8 0.0 -20.9 20043 1492.1 1144.0 330.0 18.3 -1.9 -0.2 0.0 -3.6 20044 1519.5 1166.3 336.4 16.5 -2.6 0.3 0.0 13.7 20051 1537.4 1182.0 341.7 14.2 -1.9 -0.5 0.0 25.1 20052 1564.7 1198.4 353.9 12.0 -2.1 0.4 0.0 18.9 20053 1581.5 1222.9 348.2 9.8 -2.1 0.6 0.0 25.4 20054 1602.3 1244.8 349.2 7.5 -2.1 0.8 0.0 34.5 20061 1594.9 1254.5 334.2 5.5 -2.2 0.7 0.0 62.4 20062 1620.1 1274.6 340.7 3.3 -2.3 1.5 0.0 63.2 20063 1649.4 1292.7 353.0 1.7 -2.4 2.0 0.0 42.3 20064 1655.1 1307.6 346.8 -2.0 -2.4 2.7 0.0 35.9 20071 1722.4 1337.8 378.0 -0.9 -2.4 7.5 0.0 29.8 20072 1739.0 1360.6 360.2 -0.8 -2.3 19.0 0.0 29.7 20073 1761.4 1376.2 365.5 0.5 -2.4 19.2 0.0 10.0 20074 1801.8 1401.0 378.7 3.0 -2.4 19.1 0.0 -20.6 20081 1835.2 1428.4 381.5 9.1 -2.7 16.2 0.0 -42.4 20082 1876.2 1455.1 391.4 14.5 -2.7 15.2 0.0 -29.8 20083 1904.9 1475.6 395.8 18.9 -2.9 14.6 0.0 -101.8 20084 1872.6 1437.8 397.3 22.3 -3.2 15.2 0.0 -114.9 20091 1873.3 1417.1 416.8 25.7 -2.7 13.7 0.0 -118.3 20092 1890.8 1424.6 427.9 26.5 -2.2 11.8 0.0 -75.3 20093 1905.9 1427.6 437.7 29.5 -2.5 11.1 0.0 -74.0 20094 1906.3 1432.7 432.5 30.2 -2.7 10.9 0.0 -44.8 20101 1927.7 1443.1 441.3 31.7 -2.6 11.6 0.0 -32.1 20102 1932.8 1441.8 444.8 33.5 -2.5 12.7 0.0 -28.3 20103 1949.3 1438.9 460.8 36.9 -2.5 12.7 0.0 -5.1 20104 1997.0 1450.1 495.0 39.3 -2.7 12.6 0.0 -35.3 20111 2012.7 1471.7 487.3 39.9 -2.9 13.8 0.0 -57.4 20112 2032.4 1482.9 493.0 42.8 -3.0 13.7 0.0 -57.5 20113 2055.7 1505.6 492.8 43.4 -3.0 13.9 0.0 -86.7 20114 2082.0 1528.7 495.1 44.1 -3.1 14.1 0.0 -81.7 20121 2110.2 1552.5 498.5 44.8 -3.1 14.4 0.0 -78.5 20122 2140.0 1577.1 502.8 45.6 -3.2 14.6 0.0 -75.1 20123 2171.2 1602.4 507.7 46.3 -3.2 14.8 0.0 -71.0 20124 2203.6 1628.2 513.2 47.1 -3.3 15.1 0.0 -66.0 20131 2237.2 1654.6 519.3 47.9 -3.4 15.3 0.0 -60.8 20132 2271.7 1681.6 525.8 48.7 -3.4 15.6 0.0 -54.7 20133 2307.1 1709.0 532.7 49.6 -3.5 15.9 0.0 -47.6 20134 2343.4 1737.0 539.8 50.5 -3.5 16.1 0.0 -39.7 20141 2380.5 1765.5 547.2 51.3 -3.6 16.4 0.0 -31.4 20142 2418.4 1794.5 555.0 52.3 -3.7 16.7 0.0 -23.0 20143 2457.3 1823.8 563.2 53.2 -3.7 17.0 0.0 -14.7 20144 2497.0 1853.6 571.9 54.1 -3.8 17.3 0.0 -6.5 20151 2537.4 1883.5 581.2 55.1 -3.9 17.6 0.0 1.3 20152 2578.6 1913.7 590.9 56.0 -3.9 17.9 0.0 8.7 20153 2620.4 1944.0 601.1 57.0 -4.0 18.3 0.0 15.8 20154 2662.7 1974.4 611.7 58.0 -4.1 18.6 0.0 22.8 20161 2705.4 2004.9 622.7 59.0 -4.1 18.9 0.0 29.5 20162 2748.6 2035.4 634.0 60.0 -4.2 19.2 0.0 35.8 20163 2792.0 2065.8 645.7 61.0 -4.3 19.5 0.0 41.8 20164 2835.7 2096.3 657.6 62.0 -4.3 19.8 0.0 48.0 20171 2879.7 2126.8 669.7 63.0 -4.4 20.2 0.0 53.9 20172 2923.8 2157.3 682.1 64.0 -4.5 20.5 0.0 59.7 20173 2968.2 2187.7 694.6 65.0 -4.6 20.8 0.0 65.5 20174 3012.7 2218.3 707.3 66.0 -4.6 21.1 0.0 71.8 20181 3057.4 2248.8 720.1 67.1 -4.7 21.5 0.0 78.2 20182 3102.3 2279.5 732.9 68.1 -4.8 21.8 0.0 84.7 20183 3147.5 2310.3 745.9 69.1 -4.8 22.1 0.0 91.6 20184 3192.8 2341.3 758.9 70.2 -4.9 22.5 0.0 99.3 20191 3238.5 2372.5 772.0 71.2 -5.0 22.8 0.0 107.3 20192 3284.4 2403.9 785.1 72.3 -5.1 23.1 0.0 115.6 20193 3330.8 2435.7 798.3 73.3 -5.1 23.5 0.0 124.4 20194 3377.5 2467.7 811.5 74.4 -5.2 23.8 0.0 134.3 20201 3424.7 2500.2 824.8 75.5 -5.3 24.2 0.0 144.5 20202 3472.4 2533.0 838.2 76.6 -5.4 24.5 0.0 155.1 20203 3520.7 2566.3 851.8 77.8 -5.5 24.9 0.0 166.4 20204 3569.5 2600.0 865.3 78.9 -5.5 25.3 0.0 179.2
Line 1 Receipts Line 2 Personal tax and nontax receipts Line 6 Corporate profit tax accruals Line 7 Indirect business tax and nontax accruals Line 11 Contributions for social insurance Line 12 Federal grants-in-aid Line 13 Current expenditures Line 14 Consumption expenditures Line 15 Transfer payments to persons Line 16 Net interest paid Line 19 Less: Dividends received by government Line 20 Subsidies less current surplus of government enterprises Line 23 Less: Wage accruals less disbursements Line 24 NIPA surplus(+) or deficit(-)
NIPA Table 1.1.4
NIPA Table 1.1.4
US Model Forecasts of Price Indexes for GDP
Index numbers, 2005=100
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Table 1.1.4 Quar. 1 2 3 4 5
20041 95.5 95.9 103.2 94.0 95.2 20042 96.3 96.6 103.1 94.9 96.0 20043 97.0 97.2 102.3 95.4 96.9 20044 97.8 98.0 102.4 97.2 97.4 20051 98.7 98.6 102.2 97.1 98.4 20052 99.3 99.2 102.0 97.6 99.2 20053 100.3 100.3 101.2 100.8 100.0 20054 101.2 101.2 101.0 101.4 101.1 20061 101.9 101.6 100.7 101.5 101.8 20062 102.8 102.4 100.2 102.7 102.7 20063 103.6 103.1 99.7 103.8 103.5 20064 104.1 103.1 99.2 101.8 104.3 20071 105.3 104.1 98.7 103.3 105.4 20072 106.0 105.0 98.3 105.3 106.2 20073 106.3 105.5 97.7 105.9 107.0 20074 106.8 106.6 97.3 108.2 108.0 20081 107.5 107.7 97.0 110.3 108.9 20082 108.2 108.9 96.3 112.7 110.0 20083 109.0 110.1 96.0 115.7 110.9 20084 109.2 108.6 95.2 108.1 111.2 20091 109.6 108.1 94.7 105.8 111.4 20092 109.5 108.7 94.7 107.3 111.6 20093 109.5 109.4 94.1 109.9 112.1 20094 109.8 110.2 94.2 110.8 112.9 20101 110.2 110.6 93.7 112.0 113.4 20102 110.7 110.7 93.1 110.8 114.0 20103 111.0 110.9 92.5 111.5 114.3 20104 111.5 111.4 92.0 113.2 114.7 20111 112.3 112.4 91.8 116.6 115.2 20112 112.9 113.3 92.2 118.5 115.8 20113 113.7 113.9 92.8 119.2 116.5 20114 114.7 114.7 93.4 119.9 117.2 20121 115.7 115.5 94.0 120.8 118.1 20122 116.8 116.3 94.7 121.6 118.9 20123 117.8 117.2 95.4 122.6 119.8 20124 118.9 118.1 96.2 123.5 120.8 20131 120.1 119.1 97.0 124.6 121.8 20132 121.2 120.0 97.8 125.6 122.8 20133 122.4 121.1 98.6 126.7 123.8 20134 123.6 122.1 99.5 127.8 124.9 20141 124.9 123.2 100.3 128.9 126.0 20142 126.2 124.2 101.2 130.0 127.1 20143 127.5 125.3 102.1 131.2 128.2 20144 128.8 126.4 103.0 132.3 129.4 20151 130.1 127.5 103.9 133.5 130.5 20152 131.4 128.6 104.8 134.6 131.6 20153 132.7 129.7 105.7 135.8 132.7 20154 134.0 130.7 106.6 136.9 133.8 20161 135.3 131.8 107.4 138.0 134.9 20162 136.5 132.8 108.3 139.1 136.0 20163 137.8 133.8 109.1 140.2 137.0 20164 139.0 134.8 109.9 141.2 138.0 20171 140.2 135.8 110.7 142.2 139.0 20172 141.4 136.7 111.5 143.2 140.0 20173 142.6 137.6 112.3 144.2 141.0 20174 143.8 138.5 113.0 145.2 141.9 20181 144.9 139.4 113.7 146.1 142.8 20182 146.1 140.3 114.5 147.0 143.7 20183 147.2 141.2 115.2 147.9 144.6 20184 148.3 142.0 115.9 148.8 145.5 20191 149.4 142.9 116.6 149.7 146.4 20192 150.5 143.7 117.3 150.6 147.3 20193 151.6 144.6 118.0 151.5 148.1 20194 152.7 145.4 118.7 152.4 149.0 20201 153.9 146.3 119.3 153.3 149.9 20202 155.0 147.1 120.0 154.2 150.7 20203 156.1 148.0 120.7 155.1 151.6 20204 157.2 148.9 121.4 156.0 152.5
Quar. 7 8 11 14 17 20
20041 93.9 95.9 90.5 95.1 92.1 92.8 20042 95.0 96.6 92.4 96.3 93.4 93.9 20043 96.1 97.1 94.3 96.8 94.3 95.0 20044 97.0 97.7 95.8 97.9 96.6 96.4 20051 98.1 98.8 97.0 98.9 97.4 98.2 20052 99.2 99.6 98.6 99.6 98.8 99.2 20053 100.6 100.2 101.2 100.3 100.8 100.7 20054 102.0 101.3 103.1 101.1 102.8 101.9 20061 103.1 102.1 104.9 101.8 103.2 103.2 20062 104.0 103.0 106.0 103.1 104.3 104.6 20063 104.6 103.7 106.4 104.4 105.1 105.4 20064 105.6 104.8 107.2 104.4 103.9 106.1 20071 106.1 105.4 107.8 105.3 104.6 108.2 20072 106.2 105.7 107.5 106.4 106.3 109.4 20073 106.2 105.7 107.5 107.1 108.0 110.2 20074 106.3 105.8 107.6 108.6 112.3 111.5 20081 106.5 106.3 107.2 110.7 116.7 113.6 20082 106.9 106.9 106.9 113.5 122.4 115.5 20083 107.8 108.2 106.1 115.2 125.5 116.6 20084 108.6 109.6 104.7 108.3 112.0 115.0 20091 107.9 109.0 104.0 104.9 102.7 114.4 20092 106.4 107.5 102.4 104.9 104.4 114.4 20093 105.2 106.2 101.6 106.2 108.0 114.7 20094 105.0 105.7 102.4 107.6 111.0 115.2 20101 104.7 105.2 102.6 108.9 113.2 116.6 20102 104.6 105.3 101.8 110.3 112.6 116.9 20103 104.8 105.4 101.9 110.4 112.0 117.1 20104 105.0 105.5 102.5 112.7 114.3 118.0 20111 105.4 105.9 103.0 115.7 119.4 119.6 20112 106.0 106.6 103.4 118.1 123.0 120.8 20113 106.6 107.2 104.0 119.0 123.5 122.2 20114 107.3 107.9 104.6 120.0 123.9 123.6 20121 108.0 108.7 105.4 121.0 124.4 125.1 20122 108.8 109.5 106.1 122.1 124.9 126.6 20123 109.7 110.3 106.9 123.2 125.3 128.1 20124 110.5 111.2 107.8 124.3 125.8 129.8 20131 111.4 112.1 108.7 125.5 126.3 131.4 20132 112.3 113.0 109.6 126.7 126.7 133.1 20133 113.3 114.0 110.5 127.9 127.2 134.8 20134 114.3 115.0 111.5 129.2 127.7 136.5 20141 115.3 116.0 112.4 130.5 128.2 138.3 20142 116.3 117.0 113.4 131.8 128.6 140.1 20143 117.3 118.0 114.4 133.1 129.1 141.8 20144 118.3 119.1 115.4 134.4 129.6 143.7 20151 119.4 120.1 116.5 135.8 130.1 145.5 20152 120.4 121.1 117.5 137.1 130.6 147.3 20153 121.4 122.2 118.5 138.4 131.1 149.1 20154 122.4 123.2 119.4 139.7 131.6 150.9 20161 123.4 124.2 120.4 141.0 132.0 152.7 20162 124.4 125.2 121.4 142.3 132.5 154.5 20163 125.3 126.1 122.3 143.6 133.0 156.2 20164 126.3 127.1 123.2 144.8 133.5 158.0 20171 127.2 128.0 124.1 146.0 134.0 159.7 20172 128.1 128.9 125.0 147.2 134.5 161.4 20173 128.9 129.8 125.8 148.4 135.0 163.2 20174 129.8 130.6 126.7 149.6 135.5 164.9 20181 130.6 131.5 127.5 150.7 136.0 166.5 20182 131.5 132.3 128.3 151.8 136.5 168.2 20183 132.3 133.1 129.1 152.9 137.0 169.9 20184 133.1 133.9 129.9 154.0 137.6 171.5 20191 133.9 134.8 130.7 155.1 138.1 173.2 20192 134.6 135.6 131.4 156.2 138.6 174.9 20193 135.4 136.4 132.2 157.3 139.1 176.6 20194 136.2 137.2 133.0 158.4 139.6 178.2 20201 137.0 138.0 133.8 159.4 140.1 179.9 20202 137.8 138.8 134.5 160.5 140.7 181.6 20203 138.6 139.6 135.3 161.7 141.2 183.4 20204 139.4 140.4 136.1 162.8 141.7 185.1
Line 1 Gross domestic product Line 2 Personal consumption expenditures Line 3 Durable goods Line 4 Nondurable goods Line 5 Services Line 7 Fixed investment Line 8 Nonresidential Line 11 Residential Line 14 Exports of goods and services Line 17 Imports of goods and services Line 20 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment