US Forecast: July 31, 1998
Forecast Period

1998:3--2003:4 (22 quarters)

Data

The forecast is based on the national income and product accounts (NIPA) data that were released on July 31, 1998. All of the NIPA data have been revised back to 1995:1, and some have been revised back to 1982:1.

The Latest Version of the US Model

For purposes of this forecast the US model has been reestimated through 1998:2. The specification of the model has not been changed from the previous three versions (November 11, 1997, January 30, 1998, and April 30, 1998). The latest estimates are presented in the "Chapter 5 Tables" at the end of The US Model Workbook. The complete discussion of the November 1, 1996, version of the US model is in Testing Macroeconometric Models on this site. The following is a discussion of the changes that were made between the November 1, 1996, version and the November 11, 1997, version.

Changes in the US Model between November 1, 1996, and November 11, 1997

  1. Beginning with the November 11, 1997, version, revised NIPA data from 1958:4 were available and were used. New data on fixed reproducible tangible wealth were also used for the first time for this version.
  2. Beginning with the February 1, 1997, version, a time trend has been added to equation 9. The revised flow of funds data on MH showed a large fall over time that does not seem capable of being explained with the standard economic variables.
  3. Beginning with the May 9, 1997, version, lambda is .65 instead of .70 and eta is .4 instead of .3 in equation 29. Also, beginning with the November 11, 1997, version, lambda is .65 instead of .50 in equation 19. See the discussion in Section 5.9 in Testing Macroeconometric Models for how these values are estimated.
  4. Beginning with the August 4, 1997, version, the specification of the price and wage equations (equations 10 and 16) is as in Tables 1 and 2 in "Testing the NAIRU Model for the United States," which is on this site (click "Research Papers"), with one exception. The exception is that the demand pressure variable used in the price equation is log[(YS-Y)/YS + .04] rather than a function of the unemployment rate, which was used in Table 1.
  5. Beginning with the November 11, 1997, version, the variable TXCR*IKFA has been dropped from equation 12.
  6. The 1997 second quarter revisions of the flow of funds data led to the following changes beginning with the November 11, 1997, version. 1) The Nonfarm Noncorporate Business sector and the Farm Business sector in the flow of funds accounts have been moved from the household sector to the firm sector in the model. This resulted in the following exogenous variables being dropped from the model: IVH, IVVH, PIEH, and TFA. 2) Equation 88, which determined variable INTROW, has been dropped from the model, and INTROW has been taken to be exogenous. In addition, INTROW is now taken to be net interest payments instead of net interest receipts of the foreign sector, which reverses the sign of the variable. 3) DISBA is dropped from equation 73; -WLDF+WLDG+WLDF+DISBA is added to equation 67; -WLDF+WLDG+WLDS is added to equation 70; and +WLDF-WLDG-WLDS-DISBA is added to equation 80. 3) SUR and MRS have been dropped as separate variables in the model and absorbed in the discrepancy variables. All these various accounting changes are incorporated in the latest version of Appendix A of The US Model Workbook.

Assumptions Behind the Forecast

Included on this site is an analysis of three economic plans that I did on September 4, 1996. The three plans were the latest (at the time) Congressional plan, the Clinton plan, and the Dole plan. The budget agreement that has recently been worked out by the Democrats and Republicans is probably closest to the original Clinton plan, although the spending cuts are not as large as the originally planned cuts. The following table gives for the key government policy variables in the model 1) the growth rates used for the current forecast, 2) the growth rates I used in analyzing the original Clinton plan, and 3) the actual growth rates between 1993:3 and 1998:2.


                 Growth Rates (annual rates)

            Current         Clinton          Actual     
           Forecast           Plan       1998:2-1993.3  

TRGH          5.0/8.0         4.3             4.7       
COG           2.0            -4.8            -1.1       
JG           -1.0            -4.8            -1.8       
TRGS          5.8/8.0         5.8             3.8       
TRSH          6.0             6.0             7.1       
COS           3.0             1.0             3.9       
JS            0.5             1.0             1.5       

Notes: 5.0/8.0 means 5.0% through 2000.4 and 8.0% thereafter.
       5.8/8.0 means 5.8% through 2000.4 and 8.0% thereafter. 


All tax rates are assumed to remain unchanged for the current forecast. It may help you to review the analysis of the Congressional and Clinton plans on the site to put the current assumptions in perspective.

If you examine the federal government surplus variable (SGP), you can see that the current fiscal-policy assumptions result in a moderate surplus throughout the forecast period. The predicted value of SGP begins at $69.5 billion in 1998:3 and ends at $47.5 billion in 2003:4.

No assumption about monetary policy is needed for the forecast because monetary policy is endogenous (equation 30, the interest rate reaction function). As can be seen from the second page of Table F1, the model is predicting the bill rate to remain roughly unchanged until about 2002, when it begins to fall slightly.

The Results

The basic message of the model's forecast for the near future is that 1999 looks a little weak in terms of real growth. Real growth in 1999 is about 1.7 percent. The unemployment rate falls slightly until the middle of 1999, when it begins to rise. Real growth after 1999 is about 2 percent, which is not enough to keep the unemployment rate constant, and by the end of the period it has risen to 6.1 percent. The inflation rate as measured by the GDP price index (GDPD) only gradually rises (from 1.4 percent in 1998:3 to 2.2 percent in 2003:4).

You can examine the tables of this forecast memo for the details, or you can print out the forecast values from the base data set for the model. Although the model is used to forecast through 2003:4, you should not put much confidence on the results beyond about 2000. Forecast error bands are fairly large for predictions this far ahead.

Possible Experiments to Run

The present forecast is a good base from which to make alternative fiscal-policy assumptions, depending on what you think Congress might do in light of the fairly rosy budget picture.

As a historical footnote, the model has consistently been more optimistic about the size of future federal government deficits than have most others, especially regarding future tax revenues, and the recent data suggest that the model has been right. The CBO and others have now moved in the optimistic direction. You may want to compare the current CBO forecasts with those from the model. My sense is that the model has conveyed useful information in the past about the deficit that was not in the CBO forecasts at the time.

You may also want to drop the interest rate reaction function (equation 30) and put in your own assumptions about Fed behavior.

US Forecast Tables: July 31, 1998
Table F1: Forecasts of Selected Variables--Real GDP and Components
Table F1 (continued)--Prices and Wages
Table F1 (continued)--Money and Interest Rates
Table F1 (continued)--Employment and Labor Force
Table F1 (continued)--Other Endogenous
Table F1 (continued)--Selected Exogenous
Table F2: Forecasts of the Federal Government Budget
Table F3: Forecasts of the State and Local Government Budget
Table F4: Forecasts of Savings Flows
NIPA Table 1.1
NIPA Table 1.2
NIPA Table 3.2
NIPA Table 3.3
NIPA Table 7.1
Table F1: Forecasts of Selected Variables
Table F1
US Model Forecasts of Selected Variables
Real GDP and Components
Billions of 1992 Dollars

Quar. GDPR %Ch CS %Ch CN %Ch CD %Ch
19951 6717.5 1.7 2570.4 2.3 1410.4 2.3 575.2 -1.0 19952 6724.2 0.4 2594.8 3.9 1415.9 1.6 583.5 5.9 19953 6779.5 3.3 2610.3 2.4 1418.5 0.7 595.3 8.3 19954 6825.8 2.8 2622.9 1.9 1425.6 2.0 602.4 4.9 19961 6882.0 3.3 2648.5 4.0 1433.5 2.2 611.0 5.8 19962 6983.9 6.1 2668.4 3.0 1450.4 4.8 629.5 12.7 19963 7020.0 2.1 2688.1 3.0 1454.7 1.2 626.5 -1.9 19964 7093.1 4.2 2701.7 2.0 1465.1 2.9 637.5 7.2 19971 7166.7 4.2 2722.1 3.1 1477.9 3.5 656.3 12.3 19972 7236.5 4.0 2743.6 3.2 1477.1 -0.2 653.8 -1.5 19973 7311.2 4.2 2775.4 4.7 1495.7 5.1 679.6 16.7 19974 7364.6 3.0 2804.8 4.3 1494.3 -0.4 684.8 3.1 19981 7464.7 5.5 2829.3 3.5 1521.2 7.4 710.3 15.7 19982 7491.0 1.4 2862.9 4.8 1543.1 5.9 727.4 10.0 19983 7533.0 2.3 2883.9 3.0 1556.4 3.5 728.5 0.6 19984 7580.4 2.5 2906.0 3.1 1567.2 2.8 731.0 1.3 19991 7608.8 1.5 2927.2 3.0 1576.8 2.5 734.2 1.8 19992 7640.3 1.7 2948.2 2.9 1585.7 2.3 737.4 1.8 19993 7672.6 1.7 2969.0 2.9 1594.5 2.2 741.0 2.0 19994 7706.0 1.8 2991.0 3.0 1603.7 2.3 745.0 2.1 20001 7742.7 1.9 3011.8 2.8 1612.8 2.3 749.6 2.5 20002 7780.2 2.0 3032.1 2.7 1621.1 2.1 754.0 2.4 20003 7818.1 2.0 3052.5 2.7 1629.2 2.0 758.5 2.4 20004 7858.2 2.1 3074.3 2.9 1637.6 2.1 762.9 2.4 20011 7899.3 2.1 3096.0 2.9 1645.6 2.0 767.6 2.5 20012 7940.7 2.1 3117.8 2.8 1653.2 1.9 772.6 2.6 20013 7982.0 2.1 3139.7 2.8 1660.7 1.8 777.8 2.7 20014 8023.3 2.1 3161.7 2.8 1668.1 1.8 783.3 2.9 20021 8064.4 2.1 3183.8 2.8 1675.6 1.8 789.2 3.0 20022 8105.7 2.1 3206.2 2.8 1683.1 1.8 795.3 3.1 20023 8147.2 2.1 3228.8 2.8 1690.8 1.8 801.7 3.3 20024 8188.9 2.1 3251.5 2.9 1698.4 1.8 808.3 3.3 20031 8230.9 2.1 3274.6 2.9 1706.2 1.8 815.1 3.4 20032 8273.1 2.1 3297.8 2.9 1714.0 1.8 822.2 3.5 20033 8315.7 2.1 3321.3 2.9 1721.9 1.9 829.5 3.6 20034 8358.7 2.1 3345.1 2.9 1729.9 1.9 837.0 3.7
Quar. IHH %Ch IKF %Ch IVF IM %Ch
19951 223.4 -20.1 590.5 15.4 54.3 873.4 9.8 19952 212.3 -18.3 596.5 4.1 21.7 888.7 7.2 19953 219.3 13.8 600.9 3.0 14.7 893.1 2.0 19954 223.9 8.5 600.4 -0.3 20.1 900.9 3.5 19961 232.7 16.8 626.2 18.3 14.4 929.1 13.1 19962 242.3 17.4 636.7 6.9 26.1 958.9 13.5 19963 240.5 -2.9 654.5 11.6 47.5 990.0 13.6 19964 239.5 -1.6 676.0 13.8 32.1 1007.0 7.0 19971 240.8 2.1 686.0 6.1 56.3 1050.9 18.6 19972 243.1 4.0 704.2 11.1 79.0 1095.2 18.0 19973 241.4 -2.8 726.4 13.2 51.0 1130.5 13.5 19974 244.7 5.6 722.6 -2.1 66.5 1147.8 6.3 19981 254.0 16.0 763.2 24.4 91.4 1190.4 15.7 19982 262.0 13.2 784.2 11.4 44.7 1224.2 11.9 19983 262.5 0.8 792.4 4.2 46.2 1238.1 4.6 19984 259.9 -4.0 799.3 3.5 49.3 1251.9 4.5 19991 255.6 -6.4 802.5 1.6 39.0 1265.1 4.3 19992 250.7 -7.5 803.8 0.6 34.6 1277.6 4.0 19993 246.0 -7.3 803.9 0.1 30.9 1289.5 3.8 19994 242.0 -6.4 802.9 -0.5 26.3 1301.0 3.6 20001 238.7 -5.3 801.4 -0.8 25.0 1312.3 3.5 20002 236.1 -4.2 799.5 -1.0 25.1 1323.4 3.4 20003 234.3 -3.1 797.1 -1.2 25.1 1334.3 3.3 20004 233.0 -2.1 794.4 -1.3 25.1 1345.2 3.3 20011 232.6 -0.8 791.5 -1.5 25.9 1356.4 3.4 20012 232.7 0.3 788.2 -1.6 26.8 1368.0 3.5 20013 233.4 1.1 784.7 -1.8 27.5 1380.1 3.6 20014 234.3 1.7 780.8 -2.0 28.0 1392.6 3.7 20021 235.6 2.1 776.6 -2.1 28.3 1405.6 3.8 20022 237.0 2.5 772.2 -2.3 28.4 1419.2 3.9 20023 238.6 2.8 767.5 -2.4 28.5 1433.3 4.0 20024 240.4 2.9 762.7 -2.5 28.6 1447.9 4.1 20031 242.1 3.0 757.9 -2.5 28.7 1463.1 4.3 20032 244.0 3.1 753.1 -2.5 28.9 1478.8 4.4 20033 245.9 3.1 748.3 -2.5 29.0 1495.2 4.5 20034 247.8 3.2 743.7 -2.4 29.2 1512.1 4.6
GDPR Real GDP CS Consumption - Services CN Consumption - Nondurables CD Consumption - Durables IHH Residential Investment IKF Nonresidential Investment IVF Inventory Investment IM Imports %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Prices and Wages - %Ch
                                                                         

Quar. GDPD PF WF WR
19951 2.5 2.5 0.5 -2.0 19952 1.8 2.2 6.9 4.5 19953 1.9 2.2 1.9 -0.3 19954 2.0 1.3 4.6 3.3 19961 2.3 1.9 5.1 3.2 19962 1.2 1.7 4.2 2.5 19963 1.8 1.8 4.2 2.4 19964 1.8 1.1 2.5 1.4 19971 2.8 4.5 2.4 -2.0 19972 1.6 1.7 4.5 2.8 19973 1.2 1.6 6.5 4.8 19974 1.2 1.3 3.7 2.4 19981 0.8 1.1 3.2 2.1 19982 0.9 1.1 6.1 4.9 19983 1.4 1.6 2.8 1.1 19984 1.8 1.7 2.9 1.2 19991 1.8 1.7 2.9 1.2 19992 1.8 1.6 2.9 1.2 19993 1.8 1.6 2.9 1.3 19994 1.8 1.6 3.0 1.3 20001 1.8 1.7 3.0 1.3 20002 1.8 1.7 3.0 1.3 20003 1.8 1.7 3.1 1.3 20004 1.9 1.7 3.1 1.4 20011 1.9 1.8 3.1 1.4 20012 1.9 1.8 3.2 1.4 20013 2.0 1.8 3.2 1.4 20014 2.0 1.8 3.2 1.4 20021 2.0 1.9 3.3 1.4 20022 2.0 1.9 3.3 1.4 20023 2.1 1.9 3.3 1.4 20024 2.1 1.9 3.4 1.4 20031 2.1 2.0 3.4 1.4 20032 2.1 2.0 3.4 1.4 20033 2.1 2.0 3.4 1.4 20034 2.2 2.0 3.4 1.4
GDPD GDP Price Index PF Firm Sector Price Index WF Nominal Wage Rate WR Real Wage Rate %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Money and Interest Rates
                                                                         

Quar. RS RB RM M1 %Ch UBR
19951 5.8 8.3 8.9 1210.6 1.1 65.7 19952 5.6 7.7 8.2 1218.8 2.7 65.2 19953 5.4 7.4 8.1 1202.9 -5.1 64.8 19954 5.3 7.0 7.5 1200.5 -0.8 70.1 19961 4.9 7.0 7.6 1195.9 -1.5 63.8 19962 5.0 7.6 8.5 1205.0 3.1 66.4 19963 5.1 7.6 8.6 1216.0 3.7 66.9 19964 5.0 7.2 8.1 1204.9 -3.6 69.6 19971 5.1 7.4 8.2 1226.1 7.2 60.0 19972 5.1 7.6 8.2 1245.3 6.4 66.4 19973 5.1 7.2 7.7 1232.8 -4.0 70.2 19974 5.1 6.9 7.4 1249.6 5.6 73.8 19981 5.1 6.7 7.1 1268.0 6.0 67.5 19982 5.0 6.6 7.4 1261.7 -2.0 67.2 19983 4.9 6.7 7.4 1281.1 6.3 67.1 19984 5.1 6.7 7.6 1298.6 5.6 67.7 19991 5.2 6.8 7.7 1315.8 5.4 68.4 19992 5.2 6.9 7.8 1332.5 5.2 69.2 19993 5.2 6.9 7.8 1348.9 5.0 70.0 19994 5.2 7.0 7.9 1364.8 4.8 70.7 20001 5.2 7.0 8.0 1380.3 4.6 71.5 20002 5.2 7.0 8.0 1395.6 4.5 72.2 20003 5.2 7.1 8.0 1410.6 4.4 72.9 20004 5.1 7.1 8.0 1425.3 4.2 73.6 20011 5.1 7.1 8.0 1440.0 4.2 74.3 20012 5.0 7.1 8.0 1454.6 4.1 75.0 20013 4.9 7.0 8.0 1469.2 4.1 75.7 20014 4.8 7.0 7.9 1483.8 4.0 76.4 20021 4.7 7.0 7.9 1498.5 4.0 77.1 20022 4.6 6.9 7.8 1513.3 4.0 77.8 20023 4.5 6.8 7.7 1528.1 4.0 78.5 20024 4.3 6.8 7.7 1543.1 4.0 79.2 20031 4.2 6.7 7.6 1558.2 4.0 80.0 20032 4.0 6.6 7.5 1573.4 4.0 80.7 20033 3.9 6.5 7.3 1588.8 4.0 81.5 20034 3.7 6.4 7.2 1604.4 4.0 82.3
RS Bill Rate RB Bond Rate RM Mortgage Rate M1 Money Supply UBR Unborrowed Reserves %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Employment and Labor Force
                                                                         

Quar. 100UR L1 L2 L3 JF E U %Ch %Ch %Ch %Ch %Ch mill.
19951 5.5 1.4 1.5 -0.5 3.0 1.4 7.2 19952 5.7 -0.3 1.5 -1.4 1.0 -0.7 7.5 19953 5.7 -0.5 1.8 0.9 1.8 0.6 7.5 19954 5.6 1.0 2.9 -2.1 1.7 1.2 7.4 19961 5.6 2.4 1.1 0.4 2.1 1.4 7.4 19962 5.4 1.8 2.0 0.6 2.3 2.1 7.3 19963 5.3 1.7 2.9 0.2 2.1 2.3 7.1 19964 5.3 1.5 2.8 3.0 2.4 2.3 7.2 19971 5.3 2.1 1.1 5.4 2.8 2.8 7.1 19972 4.9 0.5 1.1 0.7 1.9 2.1 6.7 19973 4.9 1.0 2.7 -1.6 1.1 1.0 6.7 19974 4.7 0.4 -1.7 6.2 3.0 2.1 6.4 19981 4.7 0.9 1.5 4.3 2.7 2.0 6.4 19982 4.4 -0.2 -1.3 0.0 2.4 0.8 6.0 19983 4.3 1.3 2.5 0.8 2.6 1.8 5.9 19984 4.1 1.3 2.5 0.8 2.4 2.3 5.7 19991 4.1 1.3 2.5 0.8 1.9 1.8 5.7 19992 4.1 1.3 2.5 0.9 1.5 1.5 5.7 19993 4.2 1.2 2.5 0.9 1.3 1.3 5.8 19994 4.3 1.2 2.5 0.9 1.1 1.1 6.0 20001 4.4 1.2 2.5 0.9 1.1 1.1 6.2 20002 4.5 1.2 2.4 0.9 1.0 1.0 6.4 20003 4.6 1.2 2.4 0.9 0.9 1.0 6.6 20004 4.7 1.2 2.4 0.9 0.9 1.0 6.8 20011 4.9 1.2 2.4 0.9 0.9 1.0 7.0 20012 5.0 1.2 2.4 0.9 0.9 1.0 7.2 20013 5.1 1.2 2.4 0.9 0.8 1.0 7.4 20014 5.2 1.1 2.3 0.9 0.8 1.0 7.6 20021 5.3 1.1 2.3 0.9 0.8 1.0 7.8 20022 5.5 1.1 2.3 0.8 0.7 0.9 8.0 20023 5.6 1.1 2.3 0.8 0.7 0.9 8.2 20024 5.7 1.1 2.3 0.8 0.7 0.9 8.4 20031 5.8 1.1 2.3 0.8 0.7 0.9 8.6 20032 5.9 1.1 2.3 0.8 0.7 1.0 8.8 20033 6.0 1.1 2.2 0.8 0.7 1.0 9.0 20034 6.1 1.1 2.2 0.8 0.7 1.0 9.2
UR Unemployment Rate L1 Labor Force, Men 25-54 L2 Labor Force, Women 25-54 L3 Labor Force, All Others 16+ JF Jobs, Firm Sector E Total Employment U Total Unemployment %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Other Endogenous Variables
                                                                         

Quar. CG PIEF PIEF 100SRZ PROD SR SGP SSP %Ch %Ch
19951 1218.0 516.7 10.4 4.2 -1.4 110.7 -189.7 110.5 19952 1174.1 525.3 6.8 3.2 0.7 118.1 -177.8 112.8 19953 1381.7 534.8 7.4 3.2 0.7 100.1 -176.9 112.9 19954 990.6 547.4 9.8 3.4 4.0 73.6 -153.0 110.8 19961 905.9 553.5 4.5 3.3 3.8 97.8 -150.0 117.2 19962 458.5 566.6 9.8 2.6 2.9 114.9 -112.6 129.1 19963 525.2 570.6 2.9 3.2 1.1 146.1 -100.2 122.4 19964 1480.9 588.3 13.0 2.7 3.3 117.8 -78.4 121.8 19971 -74.0 585.5 -1.9 2.4 -0.3 130.9 -51.2 128.4 19972 3389.5 601.9 11.7 2.7 2.7 123.9 -34.9 130.1 19973 2107.5 630.9 20.7 1.7 4.3 140.9 -0.3 136.6 19974 554.7 601.8 -17.2 1.7 0.2 167.8 2.2 141.3 19981 3053.9 583.1 -11.9 1.3 1.8 175.5 58.8 140.3 19982 200.0 563.3 -12.9 0.6 -0.1 219.5 69.8 130.6 19983 181.1 577.3 10.3 0.8 0.5 221.1 69.5 131.7 19984 140.2 579.6 1.6 0.7 0.6 222.3 74.5 133.8 19991 162.1 570.0 -6.5 0.6 0.2 222.9 74.6 134.1 19992 173.8 565.9 -2.8 0.4 0.6 222.8 76.5 133.6 19993 178.9 563.6 -1.6 0.2 0.8 222.0 77.9 132.7 19994 184.2 563.4 -0.2 0.0 1.0 220.6 79.2 131.7 20001 186.2 566.4 2.2 -0.1 1.2 218.7 81.2 130.5 20002 191.0 570.4 2.9 -0.2 1.3 216.5 83.2 129.1 20003 198.9 575.9 4.0 -0.4 1.4 213.9 85.7 127.6 20004 205.4 584.3 5.9 -0.5 1.5 210.9 89.8 126.2 20011 209.9 594.0 6.9 -0.6 1.5 207.9 86.6 126.1 20012 216.0 604.8 7.4 -0.6 1.5 205.1 83.1 126.1 20013 222.5 616.2 7.8 -0.7 1.5 202.4 79.8 126.0 20014 229.1 628.3 8.1 -0.7 1.5 199.9 76.7 125.9 20021 235.6 641.4 8.6 -0.7 1.5 197.5 73.2 125.8 20022 241.9 655.4 9.0 -0.8 1.6 195.3 69.4 125.9 20023 248.0 670.6 9.6 -0.9 1.6 193.4 65.5 125.9 20024 254.3 687.5 10.5 -0.9 1.6 191.7 61.7 126.1 20031 259.7 705.3 10.8 -1.0 1.6 190.2 57.9 126.3 20032 264.9 724.2 11.1 -1.1 1.6 189.0 54.3 126.6 20033 269.5 743.9 11.3 -1.2 1.6 188.0 50.9 126.9 20034 273.7 764.3 11.4 -1.2 1.6 187.3 47.5 127.4
CG Capital Gains PIEF Profits SRZ Saving Rate PROD Productivity SR Savings-Foreign Sector SGP Federal Budget Deficit(-), NIPA SSP S&L Budget Deficit(-), NIPA %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Selected Exogenous Variables
                                                                         

Quar. COG COS EX TRGH TRGH PIM %Ch %Ch %Ch %Ch %Ch
19951 -2.3 2.1 9.2 695.8 13.0 1.4 19952 -2.4 7.6 5.4 706.3 6.2 6.1 19953 -2.5 0.0 17.8 713.6 4.2 -2.7 19954 -15.9 4.7 10.2 719.8 3.5 -3.3 19961 17.3 3.8 3.7 738.8 11.0 -2.6 19962 12.8 5.9 5.8 746.9 4.5 -2.1 19963 -6.9 0.5 2.1 750.7 2.1 -4.4 19964 -7.6 9.2 32.1 755.8 2.7 0.1 19971 -4.3 11.5 8.3 773.9 9.9 -5.2 19972 9.8 -0.6 15.6 777.3 1.8 -6.8 19973 -1.2 3.8 10.6 781.2 2.0 -1.9 19974 1.1 0.7 4.4 784.4 1.6 -2.0 19981 -17.2 2.6 -2.7 798.6 7.4 -10.4 19982 16.7 1.4 -8.1 802.3 1.9 -4.5 19983 2.0 3.0 5.0 812.1 5.0 1.5 19984 2.0 3.0 5.0 822.1 5.0 1.5 19991 2.0 3.0 5.0 832.2 5.0 1.5 19992 2.0 3.0 5.0 842.4 5.0 1.5 19993 2.0 3.0 5.0 852.8 5.0 1.5 19994 2.0 3.0 5.0 863.2 5.0 1.5 20001 2.0 3.0 5.0 873.8 5.0 1.5 20002 2.0 3.0 5.0 884.5 5.0 1.5 20003 2.0 3.0 5.0 895.4 5.0 1.5 20004 2.0 3.0 5.0 906.4 5.0 1.5 20011 2.0 3.0 5.0 924.0 8.0 1.5 20012 2.0 3.0 5.0 941.9 8.0 1.5 20013 2.0 3.0 5.0 960.2 8.0 1.5 20014 2.0 3.0 5.0 978.9 8.0 1.5 20021 2.0 3.0 5.0 997.9 8.0 1.5 20022 2.0 3.0 5.0 1017.3 8.0 1.5 20023 2.0 3.0 5.0 1037.1 8.0 1.5 20024 2.0 3.0 5.0 1057.2 8.0 1.5 20031 2.0 3.0 5.0 1077.7 8.0 1.5 20032 2.0 3.0 5.0 1098.7 8.0 1.5 20033 2.0 3.0 5.0 1120.0 8.0 1.5 20034 2.0 3.0 5.0 1141.8 8.0 1.5
COG Real Federal Purchases of Goods COS Real S&L Purchases of Goods EX Exports TRGH Nominal Federal Transfer Payments PIM Import Price Index %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F2: Forecasts of the Federal Government Budget
Table F2
US Model Forecasts of the Federal Government Budget
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Quar. RECG TFG TCG IBTG SIG
19951 1426.1 582.9 172.5 96.0 574.7 19952 1459.3 609.4 176.6 94.6 578.7 19953 1469.1 608.2 186.2 89.2 585.5 19954 1486.8 623.9 182.1 90.3 590.5 19961 1529.9 652.6 191.2 89.9 596.2 19962 1581.8 691.4 195.2 88.5 606.7 19963 1593.6 693.8 194.3 90.5 615.0 19964 1633.5 710.0 191.4 109.2 622.9 19971 1671.1 741.7 203.9 90.7 634.8 19972 1703.5 759.1 206.5 95.5 642.4 19973 1739.6 776.9 217.0 95.1 650.6 19974 1765.5 798.6 212.8 93.8 660.3 19981 1809.1 836.5 204.8 93.9 673.9 19982 1832.4 855.7 200.2 95.4 681.1 19983 1825.4 836.1 204.3 96.4 688.6 19984 1846.5 847.0 205.7 97.5 696.3 19991 1861.7 856.1 204.3 98.5 702.9 19992 1877.3 864.4 204.2 99.6 709.2 19993 1893.2 872.7 204.5 100.6 715.3 19994 1909.6 881.0 205.4 101.7 721.5 20001 1927.2 889.6 207.0 102.7 727.8 20002 1945.4 898.6 208.8 103.8 734.2 20003 1964.1 907.5 211.1 104.8 740.7 20004 1983.7 916.4 214.0 106.0 747.4 20011 2004.1 925.6 217.2 107.1 754.2 20012 2025.1 935.1 220.7 108.2 761.2 20013 2046.6 944.7 224.3 109.4 768.3 20014 2068.5 954.4 228.1 110.5 775.4 20021 2090.8 964.3 232.2 111.7 782.7 20022 2113.8 974.4 236.5 112.9 790.0 20023 2137.3 984.6 241.0 114.2 797.5 20024 2161.4 994.9 246.0 115.4 805.1 20031 2186.0 1005.3 251.2 116.7 812.8 20032 2211.2 1015.9 256.7 118.0 820.6 20033 2236.9 1026.6 262.4 119.3 828.5 20034 2263.2 1037.6 268.2 120.7 836.6
Quar. EXPG PUG-IGZ TRGH TRGR TRGS INTG SUBG SGP
19951 1615.8 443.0 695.8 11.9 212.4 218.3 34.4 -189.7 19952 1637.1 444.7 706.3 10.8 216.4 224.3 34.6 -177.8 19953 1646.0 447.2 713.6 11.2 211.0 227.8 35.2 -176.9 19954 1639.8 436.5 719.8 11.6 208.1 228.7 35.1 -153.0 19961 1679.9 445.7 738.8 19.0 214.3 227.7 34.4 -150.0 19962 1694.4 453.1 746.9 11.0 223.8 226.1 33.5 -112.6 19963 1693.8 452.9 750.7 11.8 219.0 228.6 30.8 -100.2 19964 1711.9 451.8 755.8 22.8 218.4 231.1 32.0 -78.4 19971 1722.3 456.8 773.9 9.5 220.7 229.4 32.0 -51.2 19972 1738.4 464.8 777.3 9.9 223.2 231.6 31.6 -34.9 19973 1739.9 460.0 781.2 9.9 224.4 231.9 32.5 -0.3 19974 1763.3 460.1 784.4 21.5 231.8 231.8 33.7 2.2 19981 1750.3 450.9 798.6 9.9 228.7 228.8 33.4 58.8 19982 1762.6 465.0 802.3 9.5 223.7 228.5 33.6 69.8 19983 1755.9 453.6 812.1 9.5 226.9 220.2 33.6 69.5 19984 1772.0 457.3 822.1 9.5 230.1 219.4 33.6 74.5 19991 1787.1 461.0 832.2 9.5 233.4 217.5 33.6 74.6 19992 1800.8 464.7 842.4 9.5 236.7 213.9 33.6 76.5 19993 1815.2 468.5 852.8 9.5 240.0 210.8 33.6 77.9 19994 1830.3 472.4 863.2 9.5 243.4 208.1 33.6 79.2 20001 1845.9 476.3 873.8 9.5 246.9 205.8 33.6 81.2 20002 1862.2 480.3 884.5 9.5 250.4 203.9 33.6 83.2 20003 1878.4 484.4 895.4 9.5 254.0 201.6 33.6 85.7 20004 1893.9 488.5 906.4 9.5 257.6 198.4 33.6 89.8 20011 1917.5 492.7 924.0 9.5 262.6 195.2 33.6 86.6 20012 1942.0 497.0 941.9 9.5 267.7 192.4 33.6 83.1 20013 1966.8 501.3 960.2 9.5 272.9 189.3 33.6 79.8 20014 1991.8 505.7 978.9 9.5 278.2 185.9 33.6 76.7 20021 2017.7 510.2 997.9 9.5 283.6 182.9 33.6 73.2 20022 2044.4 514.8 1017.3 9.5 289.1 180.1 33.6 69.4 20023 2071.8 519.4 1037.1 9.5 294.7 177.5 33.6 65.5 20024 2099.7 524.1 1057.2 9.5 300.4 174.9 33.6 61.7 20031 2128.1 528.8 1077.7 9.5 306.3 172.1 33.6 57.9 20032 2156.8 533.7 1098.7 9.5 312.2 169.2 33.6 54.3 20033 2186.0 538.6 1120.0 9.5 318.3 166.1 33.6 50.9 20034 2215.7 543.5 1141.8 9.5 324.5 162.8 33.6 47.5
RECG Total Receipts TPG Personal Tax TCG Corporate Tax IBTG Indirect Business Tax SIG Social Insurance Contributions EXPG Total Current Expenditures PUG-IGZ Consumption Expenditures TRGH Transfer Payments to Persons TRGR Transfer Payments to Rest of the World TRGS Grants in Aid to S&L Governments INTG Net Interest Paid SUBG Subsidies less Current Surplus SGP NIPA Surplus(+) or Deficit(-)
Table F3: Forecasts of the State and Local Government Budget
Table F3
US Model Forecasts of the S&L Government Budget
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Quar. RECS TFS TCS IBTS SIS TRGS
19951 985.9 184.2 30.4 483.1 75.8 212.4 19952 996.1 186.3 31.0 486.0 76.4 216.4 19953 1001.9 190.8 32.9 490.4 76.8 211.0 19954 1007.1 194.4 32.2 495.3 77.1 208.1 19961 1025.3 197.1 32.7 504.0 77.2 214.3 19962 1048.0 201.9 33.4 511.3 77.6 223.8 19963 1049.2 205.6 33.3 513.3 78.0 219.0 19964 1058.4 209.7 32.8 519.1 78.4 218.4 19971 1075.2 213.9 34.9 526.5 79.2 220.7 19972 1084.5 216.7 35.4 529.5 79.7 223.2 19973 1100.9 222.1 37.3 536.9 80.2 224.4 19974 1116.5 226.9 36.5 540.7 80.6 231.8 19981 1123.3 230.4 35.1 548.0 81.1 228.7 19982 1123.6 231.5 34.3 552.4 81.7 223.7 19983 1136.4 233.6 35.0 558.5 82.5 226.9 19984 1149.9 236.7 35.3 564.6 83.3 230.1 19991 1162.3 239.3 35.0 570.6 84.1 233.4 19992 1174.7 241.7 35.0 576.5 84.9 236.7 19993 1187.2 244.0 35.1 582.4 85.7 240.0 19994 1200.2 246.4 35.2 588.6 86.5 243.4 20001 1213.4 248.9 35.5 594.8 87.3 246.9 20002 1226.7 251.4 35.8 600.9 88.1 250.4 20003 1240.2 254.0 36.2 607.1 89.0 254.0 20004 1254.1 256.5 36.7 613.5 89.8 257.6 20011 1269.6 259.2 37.2 620.0 90.7 262.6 20012 1285.5 261.9 37.8 626.5 91.6 267.7 20013 1301.6 264.6 38.4 633.2 92.4 272.9 20014 1317.9 267.4 39.1 640.0 93.3 278.2 20021 1334.7 270.2 39.8 646.8 94.2 283.6 20022 1351.7 273.1 40.5 653.9 95.1 289.1 20023 1369.1 276.1 41.3 661.0 96.0 294.7 20024 1386.9 279.0 42.2 668.3 96.9 300.4 20031 1405.0 282.0 43.1 675.8 97.9 306.3 20032 1423.4 285.0 44.0 683.4 98.8 312.2 20033 1442.2 288.1 45.0 691.1 99.7 318.3 20034 1461.3 291.3 46.0 698.9 100.7 324.5
Quar. EXPS PUS-ISZ TRSH INTS DRS SUBS SSP
19951 875.4 684.8 275.2 -62.7 12.1 -9.8 110.5 19952 883.3 693.5 279.2 -67.4 12.3 -9.7 112.8 19953 889.0 698.4 283.4 -70.5 12.6 -9.7 112.9 19954 896.3 704.2 286.9 -72.1 12.8 -9.9 110.8 19961 908.1 712.6 289.6 -70.5 13.2 -10.4 117.2 19962 918.9 721.6 292.3 -70.7 13.6 -10.7 129.1 19963 926.8 727.8 294.9 -71.4 13.7 -10.8 122.4 19964 936.6 736.7 297.3 -72.5 14.0 -10.9 121.8 19971 946.8 747.2 299.7 -75.0 14.4 -10.7 128.4 19972 954.4 754.0 302.5 -76.7 14.8 -10.6 130.1 19973 964.3 762.2 305.5 -78.2 14.7 -10.5 136.6 19974 975.2 771.5 308.6 -79.5 15.1 -10.3 141.3 19981 983.0 776.7 312.6 -80.7 15.7 -9.9 140.3 19982 993.0 784.4 316.4 -82.1 16.0 -9.7 130.6 19983 1004.7 793.2 320.0 -82.7 16.1 -9.7 131.7 19984 1016.1 802.3 323.1 -83.3 16.2 -9.7 133.8 19991 1028.2 811.4 326.8 -83.9 16.4 -9.7 134.1 19992 1041.1 820.7 331.1 -84.6 16.5 -9.7 133.6 19993 1054.5 830.1 335.9 -85.2 16.6 -9.7 132.7 19994 1068.5 839.7 341.1 -85.8 16.7 -9.7 131.7 20001 1082.9 849.4 346.5 -86.5 16.8 -9.7 130.5 20002 1097.6 859.3 352.1 -87.1 17.0 -9.7 129.1 20003 1112.6 869.3 357.8 -87.7 17.1 -9.7 127.6 20004 1127.9 879.6 363.7 -88.4 17.2 -9.7 126.2 20011 1143.5 890.0 369.6 -89.1 17.4 -9.7 126.1 20012 1159.4 900.6 375.7 -89.7 17.5 -9.7 126.1 20013 1175.6 911.4 381.8 -90.4 17.6 -9.7 126.0 20014 1192.0 922.4 388.1 -91.0 17.7 -9.7 125.9 20021 1208.8 933.6 394.5 -91.7 17.9 -9.7 125.8 20022 1225.9 944.9 401.1 -92.4 18.0 -9.7 125.9 20023 1243.2 956.4 407.7 -93.1 18.1 -9.7 125.9 20024 1260.8 968.2 414.4 -93.8 18.3 -9.7 126.1 20031 1278.7 980.0 421.2 -94.5 18.4 -9.7 126.3 20032 1296.8 992.1 428.2 -95.2 18.5 -9.7 126.6 20033 1315.3 1004.4 435.2 -95.9 18.7 -9.7 126.9 20034 1334.0 1016.8 442.3 -96.6 18.8 -9.7 127.4
RECS Total Receipts TPS Personal Tax TCS Corporate Tax IBTS Indirect Business Tax SIS Social Insurance Contributions TRGS Grants in Aid from Federal Government EXPS Total Current Expenditures PUS-ISZ Consumption Expenditures TRSH Transfer Payments to Persons INTS Net Interest Paid DRS Dividends Received SUBS Subsidies less Current Surplus SSP NIPA Surplus(+) or Deficit(-)
Table F4 Forecasts of Savings Flows
Table F4
US Model Forecasts of Savings Flows
Savings by Sector
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Quar. SH SF SB SR SG SS
19951 123.3 15.4 -13.7 110.7 -212.9 -22.8 19952 94.7 43.7 -22.7 118.1 -204.0 -29.8 19953 74.6 62.7 -19.6 100.1 -204.0 -13.8 19954 41.1 78.7 -40.3 73.6 -124.8 -28.4 19961 113.1 69.0 -38.3 97.8 -228.6 -13.1 19962 36.2 57.5 -47.6 114.9 -146.6 -14.4 19963 57.5 -1.5 -60.4 146.1 -125.4 -16.4 19964 59.9 39.0 -68.3 117.8 -106.2 -42.2 19971 25.1 2.8 -61.0 130.9 -61.9 -35.9 19972 76.4 -16.9 -68.8 123.9 -50.1 -64.5 19973 36.4 -7.9 -77.5 140.9 -30.7 -61.1 19974 -17.4 -25.7 -91.8 167.8 -25.3 -7.6 19981 -63.9 -48.9 -95.5 175.5 53.7 -20.9 19982 -112.6 -48.8 -98.1 219.5 70.1 -30.0 19983 -86.7 -55.3 -103.8 221.1 52.6 -28.0 19984 -86.5 -63.7 -104.8 222.3 57.6 -24.9 19991 -89.6 -61.7 -105.8 222.9 57.8 -23.5 19992 -93.3 -59.4 -106.8 222.8 59.6 -23.0 19993 -97.1 -55.2 -107.8 222.0 61.0 -22.8 19994 -103.7 -47.5 -108.9 220.6 62.3 -22.8 20001 -109.6 -40.7 -109.9 218.7 64.3 -22.9 20002 -114.0 -34.6 -111.0 216.5 66.3 -23.2 20003 -119.6 -27.3 -112.1 213.9 68.8 -23.6 20004 -128.5 -18.2 -113.2 210.9 72.9 -23.9 20011 -131.3 -9.2 -114.3 207.9 69.7 -22.8 20012 -134.3 0.1 -115.4 205.1 66.2 -21.8 20013 -138.0 9.9 -116.5 202.4 62.9 -20.7 20014 -142.5 20.2 -117.6 199.9 59.7 -19.6 20021 -147.6 31.1 -118.8 197.5 56.2 -18.5 20022 -153.2 42.5 -119.9 195.3 52.4 -17.2 20023 -159.5 54.5 -121.1 193.4 48.6 -16.0 20024 -166.8 67.2 -122.2 191.7 44.7 -14.6 20031 -174.7 80.1 -123.4 190.2 41.0 -13.1 20032 -183.2 93.1 -124.6 189.0 37.4 -11.6 20033 -192.1 106.0 -125.8 188.0 33.9 -10.0 20034 -201.3 118.8 -127.0 187.3 30.5 -8.3 SH Saving, Households SF Saving, Firms SB Saving, Financial SR Saving, Foreign SG Saving, Federal SS Saving, State and Local
NIPA Table 1.1
NIPA Table 1.1
US Model Forecasts Gross Domestic Product
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Table 1.1 Quar. 1 2 3 4 5
19951 7170.9 4862.5 598.4 1459.6 2804.5 19952 7210.9 4931.4 606.0 1470.7 2854.7 19953 7304.8 4986.4 616.9 1476.8 2892.7 19954 7391.9 5035.3 622.8 1487.5 2925.0 19961 7495.3 5108.1 632.3 1506.8 2969.0 19962 7629.2 5198.9 647.3 1537.9 3013.7 19963 7703.4 5242.4 642.5 1543.6 3056.3 19964 7818.4 5313.3 651.1 1568.3 3093.9 19971 7954.9 5402.5 668.9 1589.7 3143.9 19972 8063.4 5438.8 659.9 1588.2 3190.7 19973 8170.9 5540.4 681.2 1611.3 3247.9 19974 8254.5 5593.2 682.2 1613.2 3297.8 19981 8384.1 5676.4 705.1 1633.1 3338.2 19982 8431.7 5771.1 718.2 1657.7 3395.2 19983 8509.4 5834.3 722.2 1678.6 3433.6 19984 8600.5 5898.3 727.5 1697.0 3473.8 19991 8671.4 5961.0 733.6 1714.3 3513.1 19992 8745.6 6022.6 739.7 1730.7 3552.2 19993 8821.1 6084.7 746.3 1747.1 3591.4 19994 8898.8 6149.6 753.2 1764.1 3632.2 20001 8980.8 6214.2 760.9 1781.2 3672.1 20002 9064.8 6278.0 768.5 1797.7 3711.8 20003 9150.3 6342.2 776.2 1814.0 3752.0 20004 9239.9 6409.4 784.0 1830.9 3794.5 20011 9332.0 6477.1 792.1 1847.6 3837.4 20012 9425.7 6545.6 800.6 1864.1 3880.9 20013 9520.8 6615.2 809.6 1880.6 3925.0 20014 9617.1 6685.8 818.9 1897.3 3969.7 20021 9714.7 6757.8 828.6 1914.1 4015.1 20022 9813.8 6831.3 838.7 1931.3 4061.3 20023 9914.5 6906.1 849.2 1948.7 4108.2 20024 10016.7 6982.4 860.1 1966.4 4155.9 20031 10120.6 7060.2 871.4 1984.4 4204.4 20032 10226.2 7139.3 883.0 2002.7 4253.7 20033 10333.5 7219.9 894.9 2021.2 4303.8 20034 10442.7 7302.1 907.2 2040.0 4354.8
Quar. 6 7 8 11 12
19951 1059.0 1000.0 713.6 286.4 59.0 19952 1029.6 1004.3 728.1 276.2 25.3 19953 1030.6 1013.5 729.5 284.0 17.1 19954 1053.6 1032.1 739.5 292.6 21.5 19961 1075.4 1059.1 759.0 300.1 16.3 19962 1118.3 1089.8 774.8 315.0 28.5 19963 1167.9 1118.1 801.1 317.0 49.8 19964 1165.9 1132.1 816.8 315.3 33.8 19971 1206.3 1146.6 827.1 319.5 59.7 19972 1259.9 1176.4 850.5 325.9 83.5 19973 1265.7 1211.1 882.3 328.8 54.6 19974 1292.1 1220.2 882.8 337.4 71.9 19981 1366.6 1271.1 921.3 349.8 95.5 19982 1346.6 1300.3 938.7 361.6 46.3 19983 1365.1 1317.0 952.4 364.5 48.1 19984 1380.4 1328.9 965.1 363.7 51.5 19991 1376.1 1335.2 974.2 361.1 40.9 19992 1375.2 1338.8 981.3 357.5 36.4 19993 1374.3 1341.7 987.4 354.3 32.6 19994 1372.1 1344.2 992.4 351.8 27.9 20001 1373.8 1347.2 997.0 350.2 26.6 20002 1377.6 1350.8 1001.3 349.5 26.8 20003 1381.8 1354.9 1005.2 349.7 27.0 20004 1386.6 1359.5 1008.9 350.6 27.1 20011 1393.1 1365.1 1012.4 352.6 28.0 20012 1400.3 1371.2 1015.8 355.5 29.1 20013 1407.8 1377.7 1018.9 358.9 30.0 20014 1415.2 1384.5 1021.7 362.8 30.7 20021 1422.5 1391.4 1024.3 367.1 31.1 20022 1429.8 1398.4 1026.7 371.7 31.4 20023 1437.2 1405.5 1028.9 376.6 31.7 20024 1444.7 1412.8 1031.1 381.7 31.9 20031 1452.5 1420.3 1033.2 387.0 32.2 20032 1460.5 1427.9 1035.5 392.5 32.5 20033 1468.7 1435.9 1037.9 398.0 32.8 20034 1477.4 1444.2 1040.5 403.7 33.2
Quar. 13 14 17 20 21 24
19951 -94.7 787.8 882.5 1344.1 512.3 831.8 19952 -108.0 803.4 911.4 1357.9 511.7 846.2 19953 -74.5 835.1 909.6 1362.3 511.2 851.1 19954 -58.4 851.5 909.9 1361.4 501.2 860.2 19961 -75.7 856.6 932.3 1387.5 517.1 870.4 19962 -94.0 863.0 957.0 1406.0 523.1 882.9 19963 -115.5 861.4 976.9 1408.6 519.0 889.6 19964 -79.6 914.2 993.8 1418.8 514.6 904.2 19971 -93.3 930.2 1023.5 1439.4 517.0 922.4 19972 -86.8 961.1 1047.9 1451.5 522.9 928.6 19973 -94.7 981.7 1076.4 1459.5 521.0 938.5 19974 -98.8 988.6 1087.4 1468.0 520.1 947.9 19981 -123.8 973.3 1097.1 1464.9 511.6 953.3 19982 -166.7 948.6 1115.3 1480.7 520.3 960.4 19983 -168.1 964.1 1132.2 1478.1 508.9 969.2 19984 -169.0 980.0 1149.1 1490.9 512.6 978.3 19991 -169.4 996.1 1165.5 1503.7 516.3 987.4 19992 -169.0 1012.4 1181.4 1516.8 520.0 996.7 19993 -167.9 1028.9 1196.9 1530.0 523.8 1006.1 19994 -166.3 1045.8 1212.1 1543.4 527.7 1015.7 20001 -164.2 1062.9 1227.1 1557.0 531.6 1025.4 20002 -161.7 1080.4 1242.1 1570.9 535.6 1035.3 20003 -158.8 1098.3 1257.0 1585.0 539.7 1045.3 20004 -155.5 1116.5 1272.0 1599.4 543.8 1055.6 20011 -152.3 1135.1 1287.4 1614.0 548.0 1066.0 20012 -149.2 1154.1 1303.2 1628.9 552.3 1076.6 20013 -146.2 1173.4 1319.6 1644.0 556.6 1087.4 20014 -143.4 1193.2 1336.6 1659.4 561.0 1098.4 20021 -140.7 1213.4 1354.1 1675.1 565.5 1109.6 20022 -138.2 1234.0 1372.3 1691.0 570.1 1120.9 20023 -136.0 1255.1 1391.1 1707.1 574.7 1132.4 20024 -134.0 1276.5 1410.5 1723.5 579.4 1144.2 20031 -132.2 1298.4 1430.6 1740.2 584.1 1156.0 20032 -130.7 1320.7 1451.4 1757.1 589.0 1168.1 20033 -129.4 1343.5 1472.9 1774.2 593.9 1180.4 20034 -128.4 1366.8 1495.1 1791.6 598.8 1192.8
Line 1 Gross Domestic Product Line 2 Personal Consumption Expenditures Line 3 Durable Goods Line 4 Nondurable Goods Line 5 Services Line 6 Gross Private Domestic Investment Line 7 Fixed Investment Line 8 Nonresidential Line 11 Residential Line 12 Change in Business Inventories Line 13 Net Exports of Goods and Services Line 14 Exports Line 17 Imports Line 20 Government Consumption Expenditures and Gross Investment Line 21 Federal Line 22 State and Local
NIPA Table 1.2
NIPA Table 1.2
US Model Forecasts Gross Domestic Product
Billions of 1992 Dollars
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Table 1.2 Quar. 1 2 3 4 5
19951 6717.5 4556.0 575.2 1410.4 2570.4 19952 6724.2 4594.2 583.5 1415.9 2594.8 19953 6779.5 4624.1 595.3 1418.5 2610.3 19954 6825.8 4650.9 602.4 1425.6 2622.9 19961 6882.0 4693.0 611.0 1433.5 2648.5 19962 6983.9 4748.3 629.5 1450.4 2668.4 19963 7020.0 4769.3 626.5 1454.7 2688.1 19964 7093.1 4804.3 637.5 1465.1 2701.7 19971 7166.7 4856.3 656.3 1477.9 2722.1 19972 7236.5 4874.5 653.8 1477.1 2743.6 19973 7311.2 4950.7 679.6 1495.7 2775.4 19974 7364.6 4983.9 684.8 1494.3 2804.8 19981 7464.7 5060.8 710.3 1521.2 2829.3 19982 7491.0 5133.4 727.4 1543.1 2862.9 19983 7533.0 5168.8 728.5 1556.4 2883.9 19984 7580.4 5204.1 731.0 1567.2 2906.0 19991 7608.8 5238.3 734.2 1576.8 2927.2 19992 7640.3 5271.3 737.4 1585.7 2948.2 19993 7672.6 5304.5 741.0 1594.5 2969.0 19994 7706.0 5339.7 745.0 1603.7 2991.0 20001 7742.7 5374.1 749.6 1612.8 3011.8 20002 7780.2 5407.2 754.0 1621.1 3032.1 20003 7818.1 5440.2 758.5 1629.2 3052.5 20004 7858.2 5474.8 762.9 1637.6 3074.3 20011 7899.3 5509.2 767.6 1645.6 3096.0 20012 7940.7 5543.6 772.6 1653.2 3117.8 20013 7982.0 5578.2 777.8 1660.7 3139.7 20014 8023.3 5613.2 783.3 1668.1 3161.7 20021 8064.4 5648.6 789.2 1675.6 3183.8 20022 8105.7 5684.6 795.3 1683.1 3206.2 20023 8147.2 5721.2 801.7 1690.8 3228.8 20024 8188.9 5758.3 808.3 1698.4 3251.5 20031 8230.9 5795.9 815.1 1706.2 3274.6 20032 8273.1 5834.0 822.2 1714.0 3297.8 20033 8315.7 5872.7 829.5 1721.9 3321.3 20034 8358.7 5912.0 837.0 1729.9 3345.1
Quar. 6 7 8 11 12
19951 1012.6 958.3 698.4 259.9 54.3 19952 981.4 959.7 710.2 249.5 21.7 19953 982.0 967.3 711.7 255.6 14.7 19954 1004.5 984.4 722.3 262.1 20.1 19961 1027.2 1012.8 744.8 268.0 14.4 19962 1070.7 1044.6 764.4 280.2 26.1 19963 1116.6 1069.1 790.1 279.0 47.5 19964 1115.4 1083.3 807.0 276.3 32.1 19971 1155.6 1099.3 820.9 278.4 56.3 19972 1209.7 1130.7 848.2 282.5 79.0 19973 1215.5 1164.5 882.2 282.3 51.0 19974 1240.6 1174.1 886.2 287.9 66.5 19981 1321.8 1230.4 931.9 298.5 91.4 19982 1310.1 1265.4 957.5 307.9 44.7 19983 1323.1 1276.9 967.7 309.2 46.2 19984 1333.2 1283.9 976.6 307.3 49.3 19991 1324.7 1285.7 981.9 303.8 39.0 19992 1319.4 1284.9 985.2 299.6 34.6 19993 1314.1 1283.2 987.4 295.7 30.9 19994 1307.4 1281.1 988.6 292.5 26.3 20001 1304.2 1279.2 989.2 290.0 25.0 20002 1302.8 1277.8 989.5 288.3 25.1 20003 1301.7 1276.5 989.2 287.3 25.1 20004 1300.8 1275.7 988.8 286.9 25.1 20011 1301.3 1275.4 988.1 287.3 25.9 20012 1302.3 1275.5 987.1 288.4 26.8 20013 1303.3 1275.8 985.9 289.9 27.5 20014 1304.1 1276.1 984.4 291.8 28.0 20021 1304.7 1276.5 982.5 293.9 28.3 20022 1305.2 1276.8 980.4 296.3 28.4 20023 1305.6 1277.1 978.2 298.9 28.5 20024 1306.1 1277.5 975.8 301.6 28.6 20031 1306.6 1277.9 973.5 304.4 28.7 20032 1307.2 1278.4 971.1 307.3 28.9 20033 1308.1 1279.1 968.9 310.2 29.0 20034 1309.1 1280.0 966.8 313.1 29.2
Quar. 13 14 17 20
19951 -109.5 763.9 873.4 1256.2 19952 -114.7 774.0 888.7 1259.9 19953 -86.8 806.3 893.1 1257.6 19954 -74.8 826.1 900.9 1244.6 19961 -95.5 833.6 929.1 1254.5 19962 -113.4 845.5 958.9 1276.2 19963 -140.1 849.9 990.0 1271.2 19964 -95.9 911.1 1007.0 1271.3 19971 -121.5 929.4 1050.9 1277.8 19972 -131.6 963.6 1095.2 1284.6 19973 -142.4 988.1 1130.5 1289.0 19974 -149.0 998.8 1147.8 1289.4 19981 -198.5 991.9 1190.4 1283.2 19982 -252.9 971.3 1224.2 1295.0 19983 -254.9 983.2 1238.1 1290.6 19984 -256.6 995.3 1251.9 1294.3 19991 -257.6 1007.5 1265.1 1298.1 19992 -257.7 1019.9 1277.6 1301.9 19993 -257.1 1032.4 1289.5 1305.7 19994 -256.0 1045.1 1301.0 1309.5 20001 -254.4 1057.9 1312.3 1313.4 20002 -252.5 1070.9 1323.4 1317.2 20003 -250.3 1084.0 1334.3 1321.1 20004 -247.8 1097.3 1345.2 1325.1 20011 -245.6 1110.8 1356.4 1329.0 20012 -243.6 1124.4 1368.0 1333.0 20013 -241.9 1138.2 1380.1 1337.0 20014 -240.4 1152.2 1392.6 1341.0 20021 -239.3 1166.3 1405.6 1345.0 20022 -238.6 1180.6 1419.2 1349.1 20023 -238.2 1195.1 1433.3 1353.2 20024 -238.1 1209.8 1447.9 1357.3 20031 -238.5 1224.6 1463.1 1361.5 20032 -239.2 1239.7 1478.8 1365.6 20033 -240.3 1254.9 1495.2 1369.8 20034 -241.8 1270.3 1512.1 1374.0
Line 1 Gross Domestic Product Line 2 Personal Consumption Expenditures Line 3 Durable Goods Line 4 Nondurable Goods Line 5 Services Line 6 Gross Private Domestic Investment Line 7 Fixed Investment Line 8 Nonresidential Line 11 Residential Line 12 Change in Business Inventories Line 13 Net Exports of Goods and Services Line 14 Exports Line 17 Imports Line 20 Government Consumption Expenditures and Gross Investment
NIPA Table 3.2
NIPA Table 3.2
US Model Forecasts Fed. Gov. Receipts and Expenditures
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Table 3.2 Quar. 1 2 6 9 13
19951 1426.1 582.9 172.5 96.0 574.7 19952 1459.3 609.4 176.6 94.6 578.7 19953 1469.1 608.2 186.2 89.2 585.5 19954 1486.8 623.9 182.1 90.3 590.5 19961 1529.9 652.6 191.2 89.9 596.2 19962 1581.8 691.4 195.2 88.5 606.7 19963 1593.6 693.8 194.3 90.5 615.0 19964 1633.5 710.0 191.4 109.2 622.9 19971 1671.1 741.7 203.9 90.7 634.8 19972 1703.5 759.1 206.5 95.5 642.4 19973 1739.6 776.9 217.0 95.1 650.6 19974 1765.5 798.6 212.8 93.8 660.3 19981 1809.1 836.5 204.8 93.9 673.9 19982 1832.4 855.7 200.2 95.4 681.1 19983 1825.4 836.1 204.3 96.4 688.6 19984 1846.5 847.0 205.7 97.5 696.3 19991 1861.7 856.1 204.3 98.5 702.9 19992 1877.3 864.4 204.2 99.6 709.2 19993 1893.2 872.7 204.5 100.6 715.3 19994 1909.6 881.0 205.4 101.7 721.5 20001 1927.2 889.6 207.0 102.7 727.8 20002 1945.4 898.6 208.8 103.8 734.2 20003 1964.1 907.5 211.1 104.8 740.7 20004 1983.7 916.4 214.0 106.0 747.4 20011 2004.1 925.6 217.2 107.1 754.2 20012 2025.1 935.1 220.7 108.2 761.2 20013 2046.6 944.7 224.3 109.4 768.3 20014 2068.5 954.4 228.1 110.5 775.4 20021 2090.8 964.3 232.2 111.7 782.7 20022 2113.8 974.4 236.5 112.9 790.0 20023 2137.3 984.6 241.0 114.2 797.5 20024 2161.4 994.9 246.0 115.4 805.1 20031 2186.0 1005.3 251.2 116.7 812.8 20032 2211.2 1015.9 256.7 118.0 820.6 20033 2236.9 1026.6 262.4 119.3 828.5 20034 2263.2 1037.6 268.2 120.7 836.6
Quar . 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 25 29
19951 1615.8 443.0 707.7 695.8 11.9 212.4 218.3 34.4 -189.7 19952 1637.1 444.7 717.1 706.3 10.8 216.4 224.3 34.6 -177.8 19953 1646.0 447.2 724.8 713.6 11.2 211.0 227.8 35.2 -176.9 19954 1639.8 436.5 731.4 719.8 11.6 208.1 228.7 35.1 -153.0 19961 1679.9 445.7 757.8 738.8 19.0 214.3 227.7 34.4 -150.0 19962 1694.4 453.1 757.9 746.9 11.0 223.8 226.1 33.5 -112.6 19963 1693.8 452.9 762.5 750.7 11.8 219.0 228.6 30.8 -100.2 19964 1711.9 451.8 778.6 755.8 22.8 218.4 231.1 32.0 -78.4 19971 1722.3 456.8 783.4 773.9 9.5 220.7 229.4 32.0 -51.2 19972 1738.4 464.8 787.2 777.3 9.9 223.2 231.6 31.6 -34.9 19973 1739.9 460.0 791.1 781.2 9.9 224.4 231.9 32.5 -0.3 19974 1763.3 460.1 805.9 784.4 21.5 231.8 231.8 33.7 2.2 19981 1750.3 450.9 808.5 798.6 9.9 228.7 228.8 33.4 58.8 19982 1762.6 465.0 811.8 802.3 9.5 223.7 228.5 33.6 69.8 19983 1755.9 453.6 821.6 812.1 9.5 226.9 220.2 33.6 69.5 19984 1772.0 457.3 831.6 822.1 9.5 230.1 219.4 33.6 74.5 19991 1787.1 461.0 841.7 832.2 9.5 233.4 217.5 33.6 74.6 19992 1800.8 464.7 851.9 842.4 9.5 236.7 213.9 33.6 76.5 19993 1815.2 468.5 862.3 852.8 9.5 240.0 210.8 33.6 77.9 19994 1830.3 472.4 872.7 863.2 9.5 243.4 208.1 33.6 79.2 20001 1845.9 476.3 883.3 873.8 9.5 246.9 205.8 33.6 81.2 20002 1862.2 480.3 894.0 884.5 9.5 250.4 203.9 33.6 83.2 20003 1878.4 484.4 904.9 895.4 9.5 254.0 201.6 33.6 85.7 20004 1893.9 488.5 915.9 906.4 9.5 257.6 198.4 33.6 89.8 20011 1917.5 492.7 933.5 924.0 9.5 262.6 195.2 33.6 86.6 20012 1942.0 497.0 951.4 941.9 9.5 267.7 192.4 33.6 83.1 20013 1966.8 501.3 969.7 960.2 9.5 272.9 189.3 33.6 79.8 20014 1991.8 505.7 988.4 978.9 9.5 278.2 185.9 33.6 76.7 20021 2017.7 510.2 1007.4 997.9 9.5 283.6 182.9 33.6 73.2 20022 2044.4 514.8 1026.8 1017.3 9.5 289.1 180.1 33.6 69.4 20023 2071.8 519.4 1046.6 1037.1 9.5 294.7 177.5 33.6 65.5 20024 2099.7 524.1 1066.7 1057.2 9.5 300.4 174.9 33.6 61.7 20031 2128.1 528.8 1087.2 1077.7 9.5 306.3 172.1 33.6 57.9 20032 2156.8 533.7 1108.2 1098.7 9.5 312.2 169.2 33.6 54.3 20033 2186.0 538.6 1129.5 1120.0 9.5 318.3 166.1 33.6 50.9 20034 2215.7 543.5 1151.3 1141.8 9.5 324.5 162.8 33.6 47.5
Line 1 Receipts Line 2 Personal Tax and Nontax Receipts Line 6 Corporate Profit Tax Accruals Line 9 Indirect Business Tax and Nontax Accruals Line 13 Contributions for Social Insurance Line 14 Current Expenditures Line 15 Consumption Expenditures Line 16 Transfer Payments (net) Line 17 To Persons Line 18 To Rest of the World (net) Line 19 Grants-in-Aid to State and Local Governments Line 20 Net Interest Paid Line 25 Subsidies less Current Surplus of Government Enterprises Line 29 NIPA Surplus(+) or Deficit(-)
NIPA Table 3.3
NIPA Table 3.3
US Model Forecasts S&L Gov. Receipts and Expenditures
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Table 3.3 Quar. 1 2 6 7 11 12
19951 985.9 184.2 30.4 483.1 75.8 212.4 19952 996.1 186.3 31.0 486.0 76.4 216.4 19953 1001.9 190.8 32.9 490.4 76.8 211.0 19954 1007.1 194.4 32.2 495.3 77.1 208.1 19961 1025.3 197.1 32.7 504.0 77.2 214.3 19962 1048.0 201.9 33.4 511.3 77.6 223.8 19963 1049.2 205.6 33.3 513.3 78.0 219.0 19964 1058.4 209.7 32.8 519.1 78.4 218.4 19971 1075.2 213.9 34.9 526.5 79.2 220.7 19972 1084.5 216.7 35.4 529.5 79.7 223.2 19973 1100.9 222.1 37.3 536.9 80.2 224.4 19974 1116.5 226.9 36.5 540.7 80.6 231.8 19981 1123.3 230.4 35.1 548.0 81.1 228.7 19982 1123.6 231.5 34.3 552.4 81.7 223.7 19983 1136.4 233.6 35.0 558.5 82.5 226.9 19984 1149.9 236.7 35.3 564.6 83.3 230.1 19991 1162.3 239.3 35.0 570.6 84.1 233.4 19992 1174.7 241.7 35.0 576.5 84.9 236.7 19993 1187.2 244.0 35.1 582.4 85.7 240.0 19994 1200.2 246.4 35.2 588.6 86.5 243.4 20001 1213.4 248.9 35.5 594.8 87.3 246.9 20002 1226.7 251.4 35.8 600.9 88.1 250.4 20003 1240.2 254.0 36.2 607.1 89.0 254.0 20004 1254.1 256.5 36.7 613.5 89.8 257.6 20011 1269.6 259.2 37.2 620.0 90.7 262.6 20012 1285.5 261.9 37.8 626.5 91.6 267.7 20013 1301.6 264.6 38.4 633.2 92.4 272.9 20014 1317.9 267.4 39.1 640.0 93.3 278.2 20021 1334.7 270.2 39.8 646.8 94.2 283.6 20022 1351.7 273.1 40.5 653.9 95.1 289.1 20023 1369.1 276.1 41.3 661.0 96.0 294.7 20024 1386.9 279.0 42.2 668.3 96.9 300.4 20031 1405.0 282.0 43.1 675.8 97.9 306.3 20032 1423.4 285.0 44.0 683.4 98.8 312.2 20033 1442.2 288.1 45.0 691.1 99.7 318.3 20034 1461.3 291.3 46.0 698.9 100.7 324.5
Quar. 13 14 15 16 19 20 23 24
19951 875.4 684.8 275.2 -62.7 12.1 -9.8 0.0 110.5 19952 883.3 693.5 279.2 -67.4 12.3 -9.7 0.0 112.8 19953 889.0 698.4 283.4 -70.5 12.6 -9.7 0.0 112.9 19954 896.3 704.2 286.9 -72.1 12.8 -9.9 0.0 110.8 19961 908.1 712.6 289.6 -70.5 13.2 -10.4 0.0 117.2 19962 918.9 721.6 292.3 -70.7 13.6 -10.7 0.0 129.1 19963 926.8 727.8 294.9 -71.4 13.7 -10.8 0.0 122.4 19964 936.6 736.7 297.3 -72.5 14.0 -10.9 0.0 121.8 19971 946.8 747.2 299.7 -75.0 14.4 -10.7 0.0 128.4 19972 954.4 754.0 302.5 -76.7 14.8 -10.6 0.0 130.1 19973 964.3 762.2 305.5 -78.2 14.7 -10.5 0.0 136.6 19974 975.2 771.5 308.6 -79.5 15.1 -10.3 0.0 141.3 19981 983.0 776.7 312.6 -80.7 15.7 -9.9 0.0 140.3 19982 993.0 784.4 316.4 -82.1 16.0 -9.7 0.0 130.6 19983 1004.7 793.2 320.0 -82.7 16.1 -9.7 0.0 131.7 19984 1016.1 802.3 323.1 -83.3 16.2 -9.7 0.0 133.8 19991 1028.2 811.4 326.8 -83.9 16.4 -9.7 0.0 134.1 19992 1041.1 820.7 331.1 -84.6 16.5 -9.7 0.0 133.6 19993 1054.5 830.1 335.9 -85.2 16.6 -9.7 0.0 132.7 19994 1068.5 839.7 341.1 -85.8 16.7 -9.7 0.0 131.7 20001 1082.9 849.4 346.5 -86.5 16.8 -9.7 0.0 130.5 20002 1097.6 859.3 352.1 -87.1 17.0 -9.7 0.0 129.1 20003 1112.6 869.3 357.8 -87.7 17.1 -9.7 0.0 127.6 20004 1127.9 879.6 363.7 -88.4 17.2 -9.7 0.0 126.2 20011 1143.5 890.0 369.6 -89.1 17.4 -9.7 0.0 126.1 20012 1159.4 900.6 375.7 -89.7 17.5 -9.7 0.0 126.1 20013 1175.6 911.4 381.8 -90.4 17.6 -9.7 0.0 126.0 20014 1192.0 922.4 388.1 -91.0 17.7 -9.7 0.0 125.9 20021 1208.8 933.6 394.5 -91.7 17.9 -9.7 0.0 125.8 20022 1225.9 944.9 401.1 -92.4 18.0 -9.7 0.0 125.9 20023 1243.2 956.4 407.7 -93.1 18.1 -9.7 0.0 125.9 20024 1260.8 968.2 414.4 -93.8 18.3 -9.7 0.0 126.1 20031 1278.7 980.0 421.2 -94.5 18.4 -9.7 0.0 126.3 20032 1296.8 992.1 428.2 -95.2 18.5 -9.7 0.0 126.6 20033 1315.3 1004.4 435.2 -95.9 18.7 -9.7 0.0 126.9 20034 1334.0 1016.8 442.3 -96.6 18.8 -9.7 0.0 127.4
Line 1 Receipts Line 2 Personal Tax and Nontax Receipts Line 6 Corporate Profit Tax Accruals Line 7 Indirect Business Tax and Nontax Accruals Line 11 Contributions for Social Insurance Line 12 Federal Grants-in-Aid Line 13 Current Expenditures Line 14 Consumption Expenditures Line 15 Transfer Payments to Persons Line 16 Net Interest Paid Line 19 Less: Dividends Received by Government Line 20 Subsidies less Current Surplus of Government Enterprises Line 23 Less: Wage Accruals Less Disbursements Line 24 NIPA Surplus(+) or Deficit(-)
NIPA Table 7.1
NIPA Table 7.1
US Model Forecasts of Price Indexes for GDP
Index numbers, 1992=100
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Table 7.1 Quar. 4 8 12 16 20
19951 106.7 106.7 104.0 103.5 109.1 19952 107.2 107.3 103.9 103.9 110.0 19953 107.7 107.8 103.6 104.1 110.8 19954 108.3 108.3 103.4 104.3 111.5 19961 108.9 108.8 103.5 105.1 112.1 19962 109.2 109.5 102.8 106.0 112.9 19963 109.7 109.9 102.6 106.1 113.7 19964 110.2 110.6 102.1 107.0 114.5 19971 111.0 111.2 101.9 107.6 115.5 19972 111.4 111.6 100.9 107.5 116.3 19973 111.8 111.9 100.2 107.7 117.0 19974 112.1 112.2 99.6 108.0 117.6 19981 112.3 112.2 99.3 107.4 118.0 19982 112.6 112.4 98.7 107.4 118.6 19983 113.0 112.9 99.1 107.9 119.1 19984 113.5 113.3 99.5 108.3 119.5 19991 114.0 113.8 99.9 108.7 120.0 19992 114.5 114.3 100.3 109.1 120.5 19993 115.0 114.7 100.7 109.6 121.0 19994 115.5 115.2 101.1 110.0 121.4 20001 116.0 115.6 101.5 110.4 121.9 20002 116.5 116.1 101.9 110.9 122.4 20003 117.0 116.6 102.3 111.3 122.9 20004 117.6 117.1 102.8 111.8 123.4 20011 118.1 117.6 103.2 112.3 123.9 20012 118.7 118.1 103.6 112.8 124.5 20013 119.3 118.6 104.1 113.2 125.0 20014 119.9 119.1 104.5 113.7 125.6 20021 120.5 119.6 105.0 114.2 126.1 20022 121.1 120.2 105.5 114.7 126.7 20023 121.7 120.7 105.9 115.3 127.2 20024 122.3 121.3 106.4 115.8 127.8 20031 123.0 121.8 106.9 116.3 128.4 20032 123.6 122.4 107.4 116.8 129.0 20033 124.3 122.9 107.9 117.4 129.6 20034 124.9 123.5 108.4 117.9 130.2
Quar. 28 32 44 48 60 72
19951 104.4 102.2 110.2 103.1 101.0 107.0 19952 104.6 102.5 110.7 103.8 102.6 107.8 19953 104.8 102.5 111.1 103.6 101.8 108.3 19954 104.8 102.4 111.6 103.1 101.0 109.4 19961 104.6 101.9 112.0 102.8 100.3 110.6 19962 104.3 101.4 112.4 102.1 99.8 110.2 19963 104.6 101.4 113.6 101.4 98.7 110.8 19964 104.5 101.2 114.1 100.3 98.7 111.6 19971 104.3 100.8 114.8 100.1 97.4 112.6 19972 104.0 100.3 115.4 99.7 95.7 113.0 19973 104.0 100.0 116.5 99.4 95.2 113.2 19974 103.9 99.6 117.2 99.0 94.7 113.9 19981 103.3 98.9 117.2 98.1 92.2 114.2 19982 102.8 98.0 117.4 97.7 91.1 114.3 19983 103.1 98.4 117.9 98.1 91.4 114.5 19984 103.5 98.8 118.4 98.5 91.8 115.2 19991 103.9 99.2 118.8 98.9 92.1 115.8 19992 104.2 99.6 119.3 99.3 92.5 116.5 19993 104.6 100.0 119.8 99.7 92.8 117.2 19994 104.9 100.4 120.3 100.1 93.2 117.9 20001 105.3 100.8 120.7 100.5 93.5 118.6 20002 105.7 101.2 121.2 100.9 93.9 119.3 20003 106.1 101.6 121.7 101.3 94.2 120.0 20004 106.6 102.0 122.2 101.7 94.6 120.7 20011 107.0 102.5 122.7 102.2 94.9 121.4 20012 107.5 102.9 123.3 102.6 95.3 122.2 20013 108.0 103.3 123.8 103.1 95.6 123.0 20014 108.5 103.8 124.3 103.6 96.0 123.7 20021 109.0 104.3 124.9 104.0 96.3 124.5 20022 109.5 104.7 125.4 104.5 96.7 125.3 20023 110.1 105.2 126.0 105.0 97.1 126.2 20024 110.6 105.7 126.6 105.5 97.4 127.0 20031 111.1 106.1 127.1 106.0 97.8 127.8 20032 111.7 106.6 127.7 106.5 98.1 128.7 20033 112.3 107.1 128.3 107.1 98.5 129.5 20034 112.8 107.6 128.9 107.6 98.9 130.4
Line 4 Gross Domestic Product Line 8 Personal Consumption Expenditures Line 12 Durable Goods Line 16 Nondurable Goods Line 20 Services Line 28 Fixed Investment Line 32 Nonresidential Line 44 Residential Line 48 Exports of Goods and Services Line 60 Imports of Goods and Services Line 72 Government Consumption Expenditures and Gross Investment