US Forecast: November 3, 1998
Forecast Period

1998:4--2003:4 (21 quarters)

Data

The forecast is based on the national income and product accounts (NIPA) data that were released on October 30, 1998.

The Latest Version of the US Model

For purposes of this forecast the US model has been reestimated through 1998:3. These estimates are presented in the "Chapter 5 Tables" at the end of The US Model Workbook. The rest of the specification of the model is in Appendix A of The US Model Workbook. This appendix is updated through the latest version of the model.

Four small changes were made to the model from the previous four versions (November 11, 1997, January 30, 1998, April 30, 1998, and July 31, 1998). These are:

  1. The asset variable, log(AA/POP){-1}, is dropped from equation 7.
  2. Equation 9 is now estimated under the assumption of no serial correlation of the error term instead of first order serial correlation.
  3. In equation 10 logPF{-1} is no longer subtracted from logPIM. This does not affect equation 10 because logPF{-1} is a separate explanatory variable, but it affects the coefficient restriction on the wage equation.
  4. WLDF is no longer subtracted from compensation in constructing the data for WF, which affects the identities 65, 67, and 68.

Changes in the US Model between November 1, 1996, and November 11, 1997 No changes were made to the model (aside from reestimation) between November 11, 1997, and July 31, 1998. Some changes were made prior to November 11, 1997, and the following is a discussion of the changes that were made between November 1, 1996 and November 11, 1997.

  1. Beginning with the November 11, 1997, version, revised NIPA data from 1958:4 were available and were used. New data on fixed reproducible tangible wealth were also used for the first time for this version.
  2. Beginning with the February 1, 1997, version, a time trend has been added to equation 9. The revised flow of funds data on MH showed a large fall over time that does not seem capable of being explained with the standard economic variables.
  3. Beginning with the May 9, 1997, version, lambda is .65 instead of .70 and eta is .4 instead of .3 in equation 29. Also, beginning with the November 11, 1997, version, lambda is .65 instead of .50 in equation 19. See the discussion in Section 5.9 in Testing Macroeconometric Models for how these values are estimated.
  4. Beginning with the August 4, 1997, version, the specification of the price and wage equations (equations 10 and 16) is as in Tables 1 and 2 in "Testing the NAIRU Model for the United States," which is on this site (click "Research Papers"), with one exception. The exception is that the demand pressure variable used in the price equation is log[(YS-Y)/YS + .04] rather than a function of the unemployment rate, which was used in Table 1.
  5. Beginning with the November 11, 1997, version, the variable TXCR*IKFA has been dropped from equation 12.
  6. The 1997 second quarter revisions of the flow of funds data led to the following changes beginning with the November 11, 1997, version. 1) The Nonfarm Noncorporate Business sector and the Farm Business sector in the flow of funds accounts have been moved from the household sector to the firm sector in the model. This resulted in the following exogenous variables being dropped from the model: IVH, IVVH, PIEH, and TFA. 2) Equation 88, which determined variable INTROW, has been dropped from the model, and INTROW has been taken to be exogenous. In addition, INTROW is now taken to be net interest payments instead of net interest receipts of the foreign sector, which reverses the sign of the variable. 3) DISBA is dropped from equation 73; -WLDF+WLDG+WLDF+DISBA is added to equation 67; -WLDF+WLDG+WLDS is added to equation 70; and +WLDF-WLDG-WLDS-DISBA is added to equation 80. 3) SUR and MRS have been dropped as separate variables in the model and absorbed in the discrepancy variables.
The complete discussion of the November 1, 1996, version of the US model is in Testing Macroeconometric Models on this site.

Assumptions Behind the Forecast

Included on this site is an analysis of three economic plans that I did on September 4, 1996. The three plans were the latest (at the time) Congressional plan, the Clinton plan, and the Dole plan. The budget agreement that has recently been worked out by the Democrats and Republicans is probably closest to the original Clinton plan, although the spending cuts are not as large as the originally planned cuts. The following table gives for the key government policy variables in the model 1) the growth rates used for the current forecast, 2) the growth rates I used in analyzing the original Clinton plan, and 3) the actual growth rates between 1993:3 and 1998:3.


                 Growth Rates (annual rates)

            Current         Clinton          Actual     
           Forecast           Plan       1998:3-1993.3  

TRGH          5.0/8.0         4.3             4.5       
COG           2.0            -4.8            -1.6       
JG           -1.0            -4.8            -1.6       
TRGS          5.8/8.0         5.8             4.4       
TRSH          6.0             6.0             6.9       
COS           3.0             1.0             3.9       
JS            1.0             1.0             1.5       

Notes: 5.0/8.0 means 5.0% through 2000.4 and 8.0% thereafter.
       5.8/8.0 means 5.8% through 2000.4 and 8.0% thereafter. 


All tax rates are assumed to remain unchanged for the current forecast. It may help you to review the analysis of the Congressional and Clinton plans on the site to put the current assumptions in perspective.

If you examine the federal government surplus variable (SGP), you can see that the current fiscal-policy assumptions result in a surplus of around $100 billion throughout the forecast period. The predicted value of SGP begins at $122.5 billion in 1998:4 and ends at $99.1 billion in 2003:4.

No assumption about monetary policy is needed for the forecast because monetary policy is endogenous (equation 30, the interest rate reaction function). As can be seen from the second page of Table F1, the model is predicting the bill rate to remain roughly unchanged throughout the forecast period.

The Results

The basic message of the model's forecast remains the same as the message from the previous forecasts, namely that 1999 looks weak. Real growth is predicted to be 1.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 1998 and then less than one percent in 1999. It picks up to a little over two percent in the middle of 2000. The unemployment rate lags the fall in output growth, and it only rises to 4.9 percent by the end of 2000. The inflation rate as measured by the growth of the GDP price index (GDPD) gradually rises from 1.5 percent in 1998:4 to 2.3 percent in 2003:4.

You can examine the tables of this forecast memo for the details, or you can print out the forecast values from the base data set for the model. Although the model is used to forecast through 2003:4, you should not put much confidence on the results beyond about 2000. Forecast error bands are fairly large for predictions this far ahead.

Possible Experiments to Run

The present forecast is a good base from which to make alternative fiscal-policy assumptions, depending on what you think Congress might do in light of the fairly rosy budget picture.

As a historical footnote, the model has consistently been more optimistic about the size of future federal government deficits than have most others, especially regarding future tax revenues, and the recent data suggest that the model has been right. The CBO and others have now moved in the optimistic direction. You may want to compare the current CBO forecasts with those from the model. My sense is that the model has conveyed useful information in the past about the deficit that was not in the CBO forecasts at the time.

You may also want to drop the interest rate reaction function (equation 30) and put in your own assumptions about Fed behavior. For example, do you think the Fed will lower interest rates in response to the 1999 slowdown? The reaction function says no. If you lower interest rates, you can see the response to the economy of this stimulus. What would the Fed have to do to eliminate the 1999 slowdown?

US Forecast Tables: November 3, 1998
Table F1: Forecasts of Selected Variables--Real GDP and Components
Table F1 (continued)--Prices and Wages
Table F1 (continued)--Money and Interest Rates
Table F1 (continued)--Employment and Labor Force
Table F1 (continued)--Other Endogenous
Table F1 (continued)--Selected Exogenous
Table F2: Forecasts of the Federal Government Budget
Table F3: Forecasts of the State and Local Government Budget
Table F4: Forecasts of Savings Flows
NIPA Table 1.1
NIPA Table 1.2
NIPA Table 3.2
NIPA Table 3.3
NIPA Table 7.1
Table F1: Forecasts of Selected Variables
Table F1
US Model Forecasts of Selected Variables
Real GDP and Components
Billions of 1992 Dollars

Quar. GDPR %Ch CS %Ch CN %Ch CD %Ch
19951 6717.5 1.7 2570.4 2.3 1410.4 2.3 575.2 -1.0 19952 6724.2 0.4 2594.8 3.9 1415.9 1.6 583.5 5.9 19953 6779.5 3.3 2610.3 2.4 1418.5 0.7 595.3 8.3 19954 6825.8 2.8 2622.9 1.9 1425.6 2.0 602.4 4.9 19961 6882.0 3.3 2648.5 4.0 1433.5 2.2 611.0 5.8 19962 6983.9 6.1 2668.4 3.0 1450.4 4.8 629.5 12.7 19963 7020.0 2.1 2688.1 3.0 1454.7 1.2 626.5 -1.9 19964 7093.1 4.2 2701.7 2.0 1465.1 2.9 637.5 7.2 19971 7166.7 4.2 2722.1 3.1 1477.9 3.5 656.3 12.3 19972 7236.5 4.0 2743.6 3.2 1477.1 -0.2 653.8 -1.5 19973 7311.2 4.2 2775.4 4.7 1495.7 5.1 679.6 16.7 19974 7364.6 3.0 2804.8 4.3 1494.3 -0.4 684.8 3.1 19981 7464.7 5.5 2829.3 3.5 1521.2 7.4 710.3 15.7 19982 7498.6 1.8 2866.8 5.4 1540.9 5.3 729.4 11.2 19983 7559.5 3.3 2905.4 5.5 1549.6 2.3 729.4 0.0 19984 7590.4 1.6 2925.8 2.8 1557.9 2.2 729.0 -0.2 19991 7599.4 0.5 2946.0 2.8 1566.1 2.1 729.7 0.4 19992 7614.8 0.8 2966.0 2.7 1573.9 2.0 730.8 0.6 19993 7630.8 0.8 2986.2 2.8 1581.7 2.0 732.4 0.9 19994 7649.8 1.0 3007.8 2.9 1590.0 2.1 734.5 1.2 20001 7679.5 1.6 3028.7 2.8 1598.4 2.1 737.6 1.7 20002 7714.7 1.8 3049.3 2.7 1606.2 2.0 741.0 1.9 20003 7753.4 2.0 3070.1 2.7 1614.1 2.0 744.9 2.1 20004 7796.7 2.3 3092.4 2.9 1622.5 2.1 749.1 2.3 20011 7842.3 2.4 3114.7 2.9 1630.7 2.0 753.9 2.6 20012 7888.6 2.4 3137.0 2.9 1638.7 2.0 759.2 2.9 20013 7935.1 2.4 3159.4 2.9 1646.5 1.9 765.1 3.1 20014 7981.5 2.4 3182.0 2.9 1654.3 1.9 771.4 3.3 20021 8027.7 2.3 3204.6 2.9 1662.2 1.9 778.0 3.5 20022 8073.8 2.3 3227.3 2.9 1670.1 1.9 785.1 3.7 20023 8119.9 2.3 3250.2 2.9 1678.2 1.9 792.4 3.8 20024 8166.0 2.3 3273.2 2.9 1686.2 1.9 800.0 3.9 20031 8212.2 2.3 3296.4 2.9 1694.3 1.9 807.7 3.9 20032 8258.5 2.3 3319.7 2.9 1702.4 1.9 815.7 4.0 20033 8305.1 2.3 3343.1 2.9 1710.6 1.9 823.8 4.0 20034 8352.0 2.3 3366.8 2.9 1718.9 1.9 832.0 4.1
Quar. IHH %Ch IKF %Ch IVF IM %Ch
19951 224.4 -18.6 598.6 22.0 54.3 873.4 9.8 19952 213.3 -18.4 604.2 3.8 21.7 888.7 7.2 19953 220.2 13.6 608.9 3.1 14.7 893.1 2.0 19954 224.6 8.3 608.2 -0.4 20.1 900.9 3.5 19961 231.7 13.1 631.7 16.3 14.4 929.1 13.1 19962 241.1 17.2 642.8 7.2 26.1 958.9 13.5 19963 239.2 -3.1 661.1 11.9 47.5 990.0 13.6 19964 238.2 -1.6 681.9 13.1 32.1 1007.0 7.0 19971 241.0 4.8 688.2 3.8 56.3 1050.9 18.6 19972 243.5 4.3 706.8 11.2 79.0 1095.2 18.0 19973 242.0 -2.5 729.6 13.6 51.0 1130.5 13.5 19974 247.5 9.4 722.7 -3.7 66.5 1147.8 6.3 19981 256.9 16.0 761.9 23.6 91.4 1190.4 15.7 19982 267.3 17.2 792.6 17.1 38.2 1217.3 9.4 19983 271.8 6.9 790.7 -1.0 57.2 1227.5 3.4 19984 267.9 -5.7 796.6 3.0 56.2 1239.9 4.1 19991 262.4 -8.0 797.0 0.2 38.9 1251.6 3.8 19992 255.9 -9.5 794.6 -1.2 31.1 1262.5 3.5 19993 249.6 -9.5 790.7 -2.0 23.8 1272.8 3.3 19994 243.8 -8.9 785.3 -2.7 17.1 1282.5 3.1 20001 239.2 -7.4 780.3 -2.5 14.3 1292.0 3.0 20002 235.6 -5.9 776.3 -2.0 15.4 1301.7 3.0 20003 232.8 -4.6 773.1 -1.6 17.5 1311.5 3.1 20004 230.8 -3.5 771.0 -1.1 20.1 1321.6 3.1 20011 229.6 -2.0 769.9 -0.6 23.2 1332.3 3.3 20012 229.1 -0.9 769.3 -0.3 26.1 1343.8 3.5 20013 229.1 -0.1 769.1 -0.1 28.4 1356.1 3.7 20014 229.3 0.4 769.2 0.0 30.1 1369.0 3.9 20021 229.7 0.7 769.3 0.1 31.1 1382.8 4.1 20022 230.3 1.0 769.6 0.1 31.8 1397.2 4.2 20023 231.0 1.2 770.0 0.2 32.2 1412.3 4.4 20024 231.7 1.3 770.4 0.2 32.5 1428.0 4.5 20031 232.5 1.4 771.1 0.3 32.7 1444.4 4.7 20032 233.3 1.4 771.8 0.4 32.8 1461.4 4.8 20033 234.2 1.5 772.8 0.5 33.0 1479.0 4.9 20034 235.0 1.5 774.0 0.6 33.1 1497.2 5.0
GDPR Real GDP CS Consumption - Services CN Consumption - Nondurables CD Consumption - Durables IHH Residential Investment IKF Nonresidential Investment IVF Inventory Investment IM Imports %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Prices and Wages - %Ch
                                                                         

Quar. GDPD PF WF WR
19951 2.5 2.5 2.0 -0.5 19952 1.8 2.2 6.7 4.4 19953 1.9 2.2 2.0 -0.2 19954 2.0 1.3 4.6 3.3 19961 2.3 1.9 4.2 2.3 19962 1.2 1.7 4.6 2.9 19963 1.8 1.8 3.5 1.7 19964 1.8 1.1 2.2 1.1 19971 2.8 4.5 2.0 -2.4 19972 1.6 1.7 3.6 1.8 19973 1.2 1.6 5.4 3.7 19974 1.2 1.3 4.1 2.8 19981 0.8 1.1 4.5 3.4 19982 0.9 1.2 5.6 4.4 19983 0.8 1.2 4.0 2.7 19984 1.5 1.4 2.6 1.2 19991 1.6 1.3 2.6 1.2 19992 1.5 1.3 2.6 1.3 19993 1.5 1.3 2.7 1.3 19994 1.5 1.3 2.7 1.4 20001 1.5 1.4 2.8 1.4 20002 1.6 1.4 2.9 1.4 20003 1.6 1.5 2.9 1.4 20004 1.7 1.6 3.0 1.4 20011 1.8 1.6 3.1 1.4 20012 1.8 1.7 3.2 1.4 20013 1.9 1.8 3.2 1.4 20014 2.0 1.8 3.3 1.4 20021 2.0 1.9 3.4 1.4 20022 2.1 1.9 3.4 1.4 20023 2.1 2.0 3.5 1.4 20024 2.1 2.0 3.5 1.5 20031 2.2 2.1 3.6 1.5 20032 2.2 2.1 3.6 1.5 20033 2.2 2.1 3.6 1.5 20034 2.3 2.2 3.7 1.5
GDPD GDP Price Index PF Firm Sector Price Index WF Nominal Wage Rate WR Real Wage Rate %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Money and Interest Rates
                                                                         

Quar. RS RB RM M1 %Ch UBR
19951 5.8 8.3 8.9 1210.5 1.1 67.4 19952 5.6 7.7 8.2 1215.9 1.8 66.1 19953 5.4 7.4 8.1 1202.9 -4.2 66.1 19954 5.3 7.0 7.5 1200.5 -0.8 70.1 19961 4.9 7.0 7.6 1195.3 -1.7 66.3 19962 5.0 7.6 8.5 1201.4 2.0 67.7 19963 5.1 7.6 8.6 1215.8 4.9 68.6 19964 5.0 7.2 8.1 1204.9 -3.5 69.6 19971 5.1 7.4 8.2 1224.8 6.8 62.9 19972 5.1 7.6 8.2 1240.8 5.3 68.1 19973 5.1 7.2 7.7 1232.8 -2.6 71.4 19974 5.1 6.9 7.4 1249.6 5.6 73.8 19981 5.1 6.7 7.1 1266.0 5.3 71.1 19982 5.0 6.6 7.2 1278.8 4.1 69.8 19983 4.8 6.5 7.1 1275.6 -1.0 69.6 19984 4.7 6.5 7.1 1294.0 5.9 70.1 19991 4.7 6.5 7.2 1311.7 5.6 71.0 19992 4.7 6.5 7.3 1328.8 5.3 71.8 19993 4.7 6.6 7.3 1345.4 5.1 72.6 19994 4.6 6.6 7.4 1361.4 4.8 73.5 20001 4.6 6.6 7.4 1377.0 4.7 74.2 20002 4.6 6.6 7.4 1392.2 4.5 75.0 20003 4.6 6.6 7.4 1407.1 4.3 75.7 20004 4.6 6.6 7.5 1421.7 4.2 76.3 20011 4.6 6.6 7.5 1436.2 4.2 77.0 20012 4.6 6.6 7.5 1450.7 4.1 77.6 20013 4.6 6.6 7.5 1465.2 4.0 78.3 20014 4.7 6.6 7.6 1479.6 4.0 78.9 20021 4.7 6.7 7.6 1494.1 4.0 79.5 20022 4.7 6.7 7.6 1508.7 4.0 80.2 20023 4.8 6.7 7.6 1523.3 3.9 80.8 20024 4.8 6.7 7.7 1538.0 3.9 81.4 20031 4.9 6.8 7.7 1552.8 3.9 82.0 20032 4.9 6.8 7.7 1567.7 3.9 82.7 20033 4.9 6.8 7.8 1582.7 3.9 83.3 20034 5.0 6.9 7.8 1597.8 3.9 83.9
RS Bill Rate RB Bond Rate RM Mortgage Rate M1 Money Supply UBR Unborrowed Reserves %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Employment and Labor Force
                                                                         

Quar. 100UR L1 L2 L3 JF E U %Ch %Ch %Ch %Ch %Ch mill.
19951 5.5 1.4 1.5 -0.5 3.0 1.4 7.2 19952 5.7 -0.3 1.5 -1.4 0.8 -0.7 7.5 19953 5.7 -0.5 1.8 0.9 2.0 0.6 7.5 19954 5.6 1.0 2.9 -2.1 1.5 1.2 7.4 19961 5.6 2.4 1.1 0.4 2.1 1.4 7.4 19962 5.4 1.8 2.0 0.6 2.2 2.1 7.3 19963 5.3 1.7 2.9 0.2 2.7 2.3 7.1 19964 5.3 1.5 2.8 3.0 2.6 2.3 7.2 19971 5.3 2.1 1.1 5.4 3.2 2.8 7.1 19972 4.9 0.5 1.1 0.7 2.1 2.1 6.7 19973 4.9 1.0 2.7 -1.6 1.5 1.0 6.7 19974 4.7 0.4 -1.7 6.2 2.8 2.1 6.4 19981 4.7 0.9 1.5 4.3 2.4 2.0 6.4 19982 4.4 -0.2 -1.3 0.0 2.7 0.8 6.0 19983 4.6 -0.1 0.9 1.6 2.2 0.0 6.3 19984 4.4 0.9 2.0 0.8 1.9 2.0 6.0 19991 4.3 0.9 2.0 0.8 1.2 1.3 6.0 19992 4.4 0.9 2.0 0.8 0.8 1.0 6.1 19993 4.5 0.8 2.0 0.8 0.6 0.8 6.3 19994 4.6 0.8 2.0 0.8 0.4 0.7 6.5 20001 4.7 0.8 1.9 0.8 0.5 0.8 6.6 20002 4.8 0.8 1.9 0.8 0.6 0.9 6.7 20003 4.8 0.8 1.9 0.8 0.7 1.0 6.8 20004 4.9 0.8 1.9 0.9 0.8 1.1 6.9 20011 4.9 0.8 1.9 0.9 1.0 1.1 6.9 20012 4.9 0.8 2.0 0.9 1.0 1.2 7.0 20013 4.9 0.8 2.0 0.9 1.1 1.2 7.0 20014 4.9 0.8 2.0 1.0 1.1 1.2 7.0 20021 4.9 0.8 2.0 1.0 1.1 1.2 7.1 20022 5.0 0.8 2.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 7.1 20023 5.0 0.8 2.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 7.2 20024 5.0 0.8 2.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 7.3 20031 5.1 0.8 2.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 7.4 20032 5.1 0.8 2.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 7.5 20033 5.2 0.8 2.0 1.1 1.1 1.0 7.6 20034 5.2 0.8 2.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 7.7
UR Unemployment Rate L1 Labor Force, Men 25-54 L2 Labor Force, Women 25-54 L3 Labor Force, All Others 16+ JF Jobs, Firm Sector E Total Employment U Total Unemployment %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Other Endogenous Variables
                                                                         

Quar. CG PIEF PIEF 100SRZ PROD SR SGP SSP %Ch %Ch
19951 1226.0 516.5 10.2 4.5 -2.4 110.7 -189.7 110.5 19952 1193.6 525.3 7.0 3.5 0.0 118.1 -177.8 112.8 19953 1388.7 534.8 7.4 3.4 0.4 100.1 -176.9 112.9 19954 1007.9 547.3 9.7 3.7 3.8 73.6 -153.0 110.8 19961 883.0 553.3 4.5 3.5 2.9 97.8 -150.0 117.2 19962 448.7 566.6 10.0 2.8 3.5 114.9 -112.6 129.1 19963 501.0 570.3 2.6 3.3 0.4 146.1 -100.2 122.4 19964 1470.0 587.6 12.7 2.9 2.6 117.8 -78.4 121.8 19971 -108.3 584.8 -1.9 2.5 -0.8 130.9 -51.2 128.4 19972 3034.5 601.1 11.6 2.8 1.6 123.9 -34.9 130.1 19973 1902.7 630.5 21.0 1.8 3.2 140.9 -0.3 136.6 19974 518.4 601.5 -17.2 1.8 0.1 167.8 2.2 141.3 19981 2899.8 582.5 -12.0 1.3 3.0 175.5 58.8 140.3 19982 7.9 588.9 4.5 0.5 -0.2 214.8 74.5 141.2 19983 -600.0 591.1 1.5 0.2 2.0 225.0 101.9 146.0 19984 181.4 595.7 3.1 -0.3 0.1 229.0 122.5 145.2 19991 184.2 579.6 -10.4 -0.5 -0.2 232.5 118.9 142.9 19992 182.6 570.9 -5.9 -0.7 0.4 235.2 116.6 140.1 19993 195.2 563.9 -4.8 -0.9 0.6 237.4 114.0 136.9 19994 206.1 560.7 -2.3 -1.1 0.9 238.9 112.3 133.7 20001 204.4 565.0 3.1 -1.3 1.3 235.3 112.9 131.0 20002 197.4 571.5 4.7 -1.5 1.5 231.5 114.4 128.6 20003 197.5 580.3 6.3 -1.6 1.5 227.5 117.5 126.5 20004 197.2 592.2 8.4 -1.8 1.6 223.2 122.9 124.8 20011 193.8 605.0 9.0 -1.8 1.6 219.3 121.5 124.7 20012 191.8 618.0 8.9 -1.8 1.6 215.6 120.0 124.8 20013 190.7 630.8 8.5 -1.8 1.5 212.2 118.6 124.9 20014 190.0 643.5 8.3 -1.8 1.5 209.1 117.4 124.9 20021 189.6 656.3 8.2 -1.8 1.5 206.2 115.8 125.0 20022 189.1 669.4 8.2 -1.8 1.5 203.6 113.9 125.1 20023 188.7 682.8 8.3 -1.8 1.5 201.3 111.6 125.2 20024 188.7 697.3 8.7 -1.9 1.4 199.2 109.3 125.2 20031 187.9 712.0 8.7 -1.9 1.4 197.3 106.8 125.2 20032 187.3 727.1 8.8 -1.9 1.4 195.6 104.3 125.2 20033 186.5 742.6 8.8 -1.9 1.4 194.1 101.7 125.2 20034 185.4 758.1 8.7 -1.9 1.4 192.8 99.1 125.1
CG Capital Gains PIEF Profits SRZ Saving Rate PROD Productivity SR Savings-Foreign Sector SGP Federal Budget Deficit(-), NIPA SSP S&L Budget Deficit(-), NIPA %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Selected Exogenous Variables
                                                                         

Quar. COG COS EX TRGH TRGH PIM %Ch %Ch %Ch %Ch %Ch
19951 -2.3 2.1 9.2 695.8 13.0 1.4 19952 -2.4 7.6 5.4 706.3 6.2 6.1 19953 -2.5 0.0 17.8 713.6 4.2 -2.7 19954 -15.9 4.7 10.2 719.8 3.5 -3.3 19961 17.3 3.8 3.7 738.8 11.0 -2.6 19962 12.8 5.9 5.8 746.9 4.5 -2.1 19963 -6.9 0.5 2.1 750.7 2.1 -4.4 19964 -7.6 9.2 32.1 755.8 2.7 0.1 19971 -4.3 11.5 8.3 773.9 9.9 -5.2 19972 9.8 -0.6 15.6 777.3 1.8 -6.8 19973 -1.2 3.8 10.6 781.2 2.0 -1.9 19974 1.1 0.7 4.4 784.4 1.6 -2.0 19981 -17.2 2.6 -2.7 798.6 7.4 -10.4 19982 16.9 0.9 -7.7 802.1 1.8 -4.6 19983 -4.3 5.2 -2.9 805.6 1.8 -4.8 19984 2.0 3.0 3.0 815.5 5.0 1.0 19991 2.0 3.0 3.0 825.5 5.0 1.0 19992 2.0 3.0 3.0 835.6 5.0 1.0 19993 2.0 3.0 3.0 845.9 5.0 1.0 19994 2.0 3.0 3.0 856.3 5.0 1.0 20001 2.0 3.0 5.0 866.8 5.0 1.0 20002 2.0 3.0 5.0 877.4 5.0 1.0 20003 2.0 3.0 5.0 888.2 5.0 1.0 20004 2.0 3.0 5.0 899.1 5.0 1.0 20011 2.0 3.0 5.0 916.5 8.0 1.0 20012 2.0 3.0 5.0 934.3 8.0 1.0 20013 2.0 3.0 5.0 952.5 8.0 1.0 20014 2.0 3.0 5.0 971.0 8.0 1.0 20021 2.0 3.0 5.0 989.9 8.0 1.0 20022 2.0 3.0 5.0 1009.1 8.0 1.0 20023 2.0 3.0 5.0 1028.7 8.0 1.0 20024 2.0 3.0 5.0 1048.7 8.0 1.0 20031 2.0 3.0 5.0 1069.1 8.0 1.0 20032 2.0 3.0 5.0 1089.8 8.0 1.0 20033 2.0 3.0 5.0 1111.0 8.0 1.0 20034 2.0 3.0 5.0 1132.6 8.0 1.0
COG Real Federal Purchases of Goods COS Real S&L Purchases of Goods EX Exports TRGH Nominal Federal Transfer Payments PIM Import Price Index %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F2: Forecasts of the Federal Government Budget
Table F2
US Model Forecasts of the Federal Government Budget
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Quar. RECG TFG TCG IBTG SIG
19951 1426.1 582.9 172.5 96.0 574.7 19952 1459.3 609.4 176.6 94.6 578.7 19953 1469.1 608.2 186.2 89.2 585.5 19954 1486.8 623.9 182.1 90.3 590.5 19961 1529.9 652.6 191.2 89.9 596.2 19962 1581.8 691.4 195.2 88.5 606.7 19963 1593.6 693.8 194.3 90.5 615.0 19964 1633.5 710.0 191.4 109.2 622.9 19971 1671.1 741.7 203.9 90.7 634.8 19972 1703.5 759.1 206.5 95.5 642.4 19973 1739.6 776.9 217.0 95.1 650.6 19974 1765.5 798.6 212.8 93.8 660.3 19981 1809.1 836.5 204.8 93.9 673.9 19982 1838.3 855.7 206.2 95.2 681.2 19983 1861.9 868.9 206.7 97.3 689.0 19984 1887.4 886.1 207.8 98.2 695.3 19991 1895.5 892.3 204.0 99.0 700.2 19992 1904.8 898.0 202.0 99.9 704.9 19993 1914.2 903.7 200.3 100.8 709.5 19994 1924.6 909.3 199.6 101.7 714.1 20001 1938.5 916.0 200.6 102.6 719.3 20002 1954.8 924.0 202.1 103.6 725.1 20003 1972.6 932.5 204.2 104.6 731.3 20004 1992.4 941.7 207.0 105.7 738.0 20011 2013.6 951.7 210.0 106.7 745.2 20012 2035.8 962.3 213.0 107.9 752.6 20013 2058.8 973.4 216.1 109.0 760.3 20014 2082.3 984.9 219.0 110.2 768.2 20021 2106.4 996.8 222.0 111.4 776.2 20022 2131.2 1009.1 225.1 112.6 784.4 20023 2156.7 1021.8 228.3 113.9 792.8 20024 2182.7 1034.6 231.7 115.1 801.3 20031 2209.3 1047.8 235.1 116.4 810.0 20032 2236.5 1061.3 238.7 117.8 818.8 20033 2264.3 1075.2 242.3 119.1 827.7 20034 2292.7 1089.4 246.0 120.5 836.9
Quar. EXPG PUG-IGZ TRGH TRGR TRGS INTG SUBG SGP
19951 1615.8 443.0 695.8 11.9 212.4 218.3 34.4 -189.7 19952 1637.1 444.7 706.3 10.8 216.4 224.3 34.6 -177.8 19953 1646.0 447.2 713.6 11.2 211.0 227.8 35.2 -176.9 19954 1639.8 436.5 719.8 11.6 208.1 228.7 35.1 -153.0 19961 1679.9 445.7 738.8 19.0 214.3 227.7 34.4 -150.0 19962 1694.4 453.1 746.9 11.0 223.8 226.1 33.5 -112.6 19963 1693.8 452.9 750.7 11.8 219.0 228.6 30.8 -100.2 19964 1711.9 451.8 755.8 22.8 218.4 231.1 32.0 -78.4 19971 1722.3 456.8 773.9 9.5 220.7 229.4 32.0 -51.2 19972 1738.4 464.8 777.3 9.9 223.2 231.6 31.6 -34.9 19973 1739.9 460.0 781.2 9.9 224.4 231.9 32.5 -0.3 19974 1763.3 460.1 784.4 21.5 231.8 231.8 33.7 2.2 19981 1750.3 450.9 798.6 9.9 228.7 228.8 33.4 58.8 19982 1763.8 464.0 802.1 9.0 226.9 228.3 33.5 74.5 19983 1760.0 458.5 805.6 8.8 227.6 225.6 33.9 101.9 19984 1764.8 461.9 815.5 8.8 230.8 214.0 33.9 122.5 19991 1776.7 465.2 825.5 8.8 234.1 209.1 33.9 118.9 19992 1788.2 468.6 835.6 8.8 237.4 203.8 33.9 116.6 19993 1800.3 472.1 845.9 8.8 240.8 198.8 33.9 114.0 19994 1812.4 475.6 856.3 8.8 244.2 193.6 33.9 112.3 20001 1825.6 479.2 866.8 8.8 247.7 189.2 33.9 112.9 20002 1840.4 483.0 877.4 8.8 251.2 186.1 33.9 114.4 20003 1855.2 486.8 888.2 8.8 254.8 182.7 33.9 117.5 20004 1869.5 490.8 899.1 8.8 258.4 178.5 33.9 122.9 20011 1892.0 494.9 916.5 8.8 263.4 174.5 33.9 121.5 20012 1915.8 499.2 934.3 8.8 268.5 171.1 33.9 120.0 20013 1940.1 503.5 952.5 8.8 273.7 167.7 33.9 118.6 20014 1964.9 508.0 971.0 8.8 279.1 164.1 33.9 117.4 20021 1990.6 512.5 989.9 8.8 284.5 161.1 33.9 115.8 20022 2017.4 517.2 1009.1 8.8 290.0 158.4 33.9 113.9 20023 2045.0 521.9 1028.7 8.8 295.6 156.1 33.9 111.6 20024 2073.4 526.8 1048.7 8.8 301.4 153.8 33.9 109.3 20031 2102.5 531.7 1069.1 8.8 307.2 151.8 33.9 106.8 20032 2132.3 536.8 1089.8 8.8 313.2 149.8 33.9 104.3 20033 2162.6 541.9 1111.0 8.8 319.3 147.8 33.9 101.7 20034 2193.6 547.1 1132.6 8.8 325.5 145.8 33.9 99.1
RECG Total Receipts TPG Personal Tax TCG Corporate Tax IBTG Indirect Business Tax SIG Social Insurance Contributions EXPG Total Current Expenditures PUG-IGZ Consumption Expenditures TRGH Transfer Payments to Persons TRGR Transfer Payments to Rest of the World TRGS Grants in Aid to S&L Governments INTG Net Interest Paid SUBG Subsidies less Current Surplus SGP NIPA Surplus(+) or Deficit(-)
Table F3: Forecasts of the State and Local Government Budget
Table F3
US Model Forecasts of the S&L Government Budget
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Quar. RECS TFS TCS IBTS SIS TRGS
19951 985.9 184.2 30.4 483.1 75.8 212.4 19952 996.1 186.3 31.0 486.0 76.4 216.4 19953 1001.9 190.8 32.9 490.4 76.8 211.0 19954 1007.1 194.4 32.2 495.3 77.1 208.1 19961 1025.3 197.1 32.7 504.0 77.2 214.3 19962 1048.0 201.9 33.4 511.3 77.6 223.8 19963 1049.2 205.6 33.3 513.3 78.0 219.0 19964 1058.4 209.7 32.8 519.1 78.4 218.4 19971 1075.2 213.9 34.9 526.5 79.2 220.7 19972 1084.5 216.7 35.4 529.5 79.7 223.2 19973 1100.9 222.1 37.3 536.9 80.2 224.4 19974 1116.5 226.9 36.5 540.7 80.6 231.8 19981 1123.3 230.4 35.1 548.0 81.1 228.7 19982 1133.7 237.2 35.4 552.5 81.7 226.9 19983 1148.2 244.3 35.5 558.4 82.4 227.6 19984 1158.9 246.0 35.7 563.3 83.1 230.8 19991 1169.0 247.7 35.0 568.3 83.9 234.1 19992 1179.2 249.3 34.7 573.2 84.6 237.4 19993 1189.7 250.9 34.4 578.2 85.4 240.8 19994 1200.7 252.4 34.3 583.6 86.2 244.2 20001 1212.4 254.3 34.4 589.0 86.9 247.7 20002 1224.7 256.5 34.7 594.6 87.7 251.2 20003 1237.5 258.9 35.1 600.2 88.5 254.8 20004 1251.1 261.5 35.5 606.3 89.3 258.4 20011 1266.5 264.3 36.1 612.6 90.1 263.4 20012 1282.3 267.3 36.6 619.0 90.9 268.5 20013 1298.5 270.4 37.1 625.5 91.8 273.7 20014 1315.1 273.6 37.6 632.3 92.6 279.1 20021 1332.1 276.9 38.1 639.1 93.4 284.5 20022 1349.5 280.4 38.6 646.2 94.3 290.0 20023 1367.3 283.9 39.2 653.4 95.1 295.6 20024 1385.5 287.5 39.8 660.8 96.0 301.4 20031 1404.0 291.2 40.4 668.3 96.9 307.2 20032 1422.9 295.0 41.0 675.9 97.8 313.2 20033 1442.1 298.9 41.6 683.6 98.6 319.3 20034 1461.7 302.9 42.2 691.6 99.5 325.5
Quar. EXPS PUS-ISZ TRSH INTS DRS SUBS SSP
19951 875.4 684.8 275.2 -62.7 12.1 -9.8 110.5 19952 883.3 693.5 279.2 -67.4 12.3 -9.7 112.8 19953 889.0 698.4 283.4 -70.5 12.6 -9.7 112.9 19954 896.3 704.2 286.9 -72.1 12.8 -9.9 110.8 19961 908.1 712.6 289.6 -70.5 13.2 -10.4 117.2 19962 918.9 721.6 292.3 -70.7 13.6 -10.7 129.1 19963 926.8 727.8 294.9 -71.4 13.7 -10.8 122.4 19964 936.6 736.7 297.3 -72.5 14.0 -10.9 121.8 19971 946.8 747.2 299.7 -75.0 14.4 -10.7 128.4 19972 954.4 754.0 302.5 -76.7 14.8 -10.6 130.1 19973 964.3 762.2 305.5 -78.2 14.7 -10.5 136.6 19974 975.2 771.5 308.6 -79.5 15.1 -10.3 141.3 19981 983.0 776.7 312.6 -80.7 15.7 -9.9 140.3 19982 992.5 784.7 315.6 -82.2 16.0 -9.6 141.2 19983 1002.2 793.1 318.2 -83.7 16.0 -9.4 146.0 19984 1013.8 802.3 321.4 -84.3 16.2 -9.4 145.2 19991 1026.1 811.5 325.3 -84.9 16.4 -9.4 142.9 19992 1039.1 820.9 329.8 -85.6 16.6 -9.4 140.1 19993 1052.8 830.5 334.7 -86.2 16.8 -9.4 136.9 19994 1067.0 840.2 340.0 -86.9 17.0 -9.4 133.7 20001 1081.4 850.2 345.3 -87.5 17.2 -9.4 131.0 20002 1096.1 860.5 350.6 -88.1 17.4 -9.4 128.6 20003 1111.0 871.0 355.8 -88.8 17.6 -9.4 126.5 20004 1126.2 881.9 361.1 -89.5 17.9 -9.4 124.8 20011 1141.7 893.0 366.3 -90.1 18.1 -9.4 124.7 20012 1157.5 904.5 371.5 -90.8 18.3 -9.4 124.8 20013 1173.6 916.2 376.8 -91.5 18.5 -9.4 124.9 20014 1190.2 928.2 382.3 -92.1 18.7 -9.4 124.9 20021 1207.1 940.5 387.8 -92.8 19.0 -9.4 125.0 20022 1224.4 953.0 393.5 -93.5 19.2 -9.4 125.1 20023 1242.2 965.9 399.3 -94.2 19.4 -9.4 125.2 20024 1260.3 978.9 405.3 -94.9 19.7 -9.4 125.2 20031 1278.8 992.2 411.5 -95.6 19.9 -9.4 125.2 20032 1297.7 1005.8 417.7 -96.3 20.2 -9.4 125.2 20033 1316.9 1019.6 424.1 -97.0 20.4 -9.4 125.2 20034 1336.6 1033.7 430.7 -97.8 20.7 -9.4 125.1
RECS Total Receipts TPS Personal Tax TCS Corporate Tax IBTS Indirect Business Tax SIS Social Insurance Contributions TRGS Grants in Aid from Federal Government EXPS Total Current Expenditures PUS-ISZ Consumption Expenditures TRSH Transfer Payments to Persons INTS Net Interest Paid DRS Dividends Received SUBS Subsidies less Current Surplus SSP NIPA Surplus(+) or Deficit(-)
Table F4 Forecasts of Savings Flows
Table F4
US Model Forecasts of Savings Flows
Savings by Sector
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Quar. SH SF SB SR SG SS
19951 126.9 -43.1 41.3 110.7 -213.3 -22.5 19952 98.5 -22.6 40.1 118.1 -204.7 -29.5 19953 78.3 -10.4 49.8 100.1 -204.4 -13.4 19954 43.7 2.6 32.0 73.6 -123.9 -27.9 19961 118.1 -14.4 39.4 97.8 -229.2 -11.8 19962 41.9 -26.2 30.4 114.9 -148.1 -12.9 19963 62.1 -86.9 18.8 146.1 -125.6 -14.5 19964 62.5 -54.3 19.1 117.8 -105.1 -40.0 19971 26.3 -101.4 41.2 130.9 -63.1 -33.9 19972 79.9 -124.9 36.6 123.9 -53.1 -62.4 19973 35.4 -115.9 28.1 140.9 -29.9 -58.7 19974 -21.1 -139.2 22.3 167.8 -24.8 -5.0 19981 -85.7 -164.8 21.2 175.5 51.3 2.5 19982 -125.9 -170.3 26.1 214.8 50.1 5.1 19983 -152.1 -181.1 27.3 225.0 74.0 6.9 19984 -168.3 -189.7 27.3 229.0 94.6 7.1 19991 -173.0 -183.5 27.2 232.5 91.0 5.9 19992 -176.8 -178.4 27.2 235.2 88.7 4.2 19993 -181.9 -170.6 27.1 237.4 86.1 2.0 19994 -190.7 -159.5 27.0 238.9 84.3 -0.1 20001 -197.8 -147.8 26.9 235.3 85.0 -1.7 20002 -201.9 -140.0 26.9 231.5 86.5 -2.9 20003 -206.8 -133.1 26.8 227.5 89.6 -4.0 20004 -214.6 -126.0 26.7 223.2 95.0 -4.4 20011 -216.0 -120.2 26.7 219.3 93.6 -3.4 20012 -217.1 -115.0 26.7 215.6 92.1 -2.2 20013 -218.5 -110.2 26.7 212.2 90.7 -0.9 20014 -220.2 -105.4 26.7 209.1 89.5 0.4 20021 -222.2 -100.2 26.7 206.2 87.9 1.6 20022 -224.3 -94.9 26.8 203.6 85.9 2.9 20023 -226.7 -89.4 26.8 201.3 83.7 4.3 20024 -229.5 -83.4 26.8 199.2 81.4 5.5 20031 -232.3 -77.5 26.9 197.3 78.9 6.8 20032 -235.3 -71.7 26.9 195.6 76.3 8.1 20033 -238.1 -66.1 27.0 194.1 73.7 9.4 20034 -240.8 -60.8 27.0 192.8 71.1 10.7 SH Saving, Households SF Saving, Firms SB Saving, Financial SR Saving, Foreign SG Saving, Federal SS Saving, State and Local
NIPA Table 1.1
NIPA Table 1.1
US Model Forecasts Gross Domestic Product
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Table 1.1 Quar. 1 2 3 4 5
19951 7170.9 4862.5 598.4 1459.6 2804.5 19952 7210.9 4931.4 606.0 1470.7 2854.7 19953 7304.8 4986.4 616.9 1476.8 2892.7 19954 7391.9 5035.3 622.8 1487.5 2925.0 19961 7495.3 5108.1 632.3 1506.8 2969.0 19962 7629.2 5198.9 647.3 1537.9 3013.7 19963 7703.4 5242.4 642.5 1543.6 3056.3 19964 7818.4 5313.3 651.1 1568.3 3093.9 19971 7954.9 5402.5 668.9 1589.7 3143.9 19972 8063.4 5438.8 659.9 1588.2 3190.7 19973 8170.9 5540.4 681.2 1611.3 3247.9 19974 8254.5 5593.2 682.2 1613.2 3297.8 19981 8384.1 5676.4 705.1 1633.1 3338.2 19982 8440.4 5773.7 720.1 1655.2 3398.4 19983 8526.6 5843.0 715.5 1670.7 3456.8 19984 8593.6 5894.6 717.4 1685.0 3492.2 19991 8637.2 5946.3 720.3 1699.0 3527.0 19992 8687.4 5997.8 723.5 1712.6 3561.7 19993 8738.5 6050.4 727.3 1726.3 3596.8 19994 8793.9 6106.5 731.7 1740.8 3634.0 20001 8861.8 6163.7 737.1 1755.5 3671.0 20002 8937.2 6221.3 743.0 1770.1 3708.3 20003 9018.3 6280.8 749.4 1784.9 3746.5 20004 9106.8 6344.5 756.4 1800.7 3787.4 20011 9200.0 6409.8 764.1 1816.6 3829.1 20012 9296.3 6476.8 772.5 1832.6 3871.6 20013 9395.0 6545.4 781.6 1848.8 3915.0 20014 9495.7 6615.8 791.3 1865.3 3959.2 20021 9598.2 6687.9 801.5 1882.1 4004.3 20022 9702.6 6761.7 812.3 1899.3 4050.1 20023 9808.9 6837.2 823.5 1916.8 4096.8 20024 9917.0 6914.1 835.1 1934.7 4144.4 20031 10027.0 6992.5 847.0 1952.8 4192.7 20032 10139.0 7072.3 859.3 1971.2 4241.8 20033 10252.9 7153.6 871.9 1990.0 4291.7 20034 10369.0 7236.3 884.8 2009.0 4342.5
Quar. 6 7 8 11 12
19951 1059.0 1000.0 713.6 286.4 59.0 19952 1029.6 1004.3 728.1 276.2 25.3 19953 1030.6 1013.5 729.5 284.0 17.1 19954 1053.6 1032.1 739.5 292.6 21.5 19961 1075.4 1059.1 759.0 300.1 16.3 19962 1118.3 1089.8 774.8 315.0 28.5 19963 1167.9 1118.1 801.1 317.0 49.8 19964 1165.9 1132.1 816.8 315.3 33.8 19971 1206.3 1146.6 827.1 319.5 59.7 19972 1259.9 1176.4 850.5 325.9 83.5 19973 1265.7 1211.1 882.3 328.8 54.6 19974 1292.1 1220.2 882.8 337.4 71.9 19981 1366.6 1271.1 921.3 349.8 95.5 19982 1344.9 1305.7 941.9 363.8 39.2 19983 1361.8 1303.1 931.1 372.0 58.7 19984 1368.5 1310.6 941.7 368.9 57.9 19991 1350.9 1310.7 946.8 363.9 40.2 19992 1339.3 1307.1 949.3 357.7 32.2 19993 1326.7 1302.0 950.3 351.7 24.7 19994 1314.0 1296.2 949.9 346.3 17.8 20001 1307.3 1292.3 950.0 342.3 15.0 20002 1306.9 1290.8 951.3 339.5 16.1 20003 1309.8 1291.3 953.5 337.9 18.5 20004 1315.2 1294.0 957.0 337.1 21.2 20011 1323.6 1299.0 961.6 337.4 24.6 20012 1333.3 1305.5 966.9 338.6 27.8 20013 1343.6 1313.2 972.9 340.4 30.4 20014 1354.0 1321.8 979.2 342.6 32.3 20021 1364.5 1330.9 985.8 345.1 33.6 20022 1374.9 1340.5 992.7 347.8 34.4 20023 1385.6 1350.6 999.8 350.7 35.0 20024 1396.5 1361.0 1007.2 353.8 35.5 20031 1407.6 1371.8 1014.9 356.9 35.9 20032 1419.2 1383.0 1022.8 360.1 36.2 20033 1431.1 1394.6 1031.2 363.5 36.5 20034 1443.5 1406.7 1039.9 366.9 36.8
Quar. 13 14 17 20 21 24
19951 -94.7 787.8 882.5 1344.1 512.3 831.8 19952 -108.0 803.4 911.4 1357.9 511.7 846.2 19953 -74.5 835.1 909.6 1362.3 511.2 851.1 19954 -58.4 851.5 909.9 1361.4 501.2 860.2 19961 -75.7 856.6 932.3 1387.5 517.1 870.4 19962 -94.0 863.0 957.0 1406.0 523.1 882.9 19963 -115.5 861.4 976.9 1408.6 519.0 889.6 19964 -79.6 914.2 993.8 1418.8 514.6 904.2 19971 -93.3 930.2 1023.5 1439.4 517.0 922.4 19972 -86.8 961.1 1047.9 1451.5 522.9 928.6 19973 -94.7 981.7 1076.4 1459.5 521.0 938.5 19974 -98.8 988.6 1087.4 1468.0 520.1 947.9 19981 -123.8 973.3 1097.1 1464.9 511.6 953.3 19982 -159.3 949.6 1108.9 1481.1 520.7 960.4 19983 -168.7 935.7 1104.4 1490.5 518.7 971.8 19984 -172.5 945.9 1118.3 1503.0 522.1 981.0 19991 -175.7 956.0 1131.7 1515.6 525.4 990.2 19992 -178.2 966.2 1144.4 1528.4 528.8 999.6 19993 -180.0 976.5 1156.6 1541.5 532.3 1009.2 19994 -181.3 987.0 1168.3 1554.7 535.8 1018.9 20001 -177.5 1002.5 1180.0 1568.4 539.4 1028.9 20002 -173.4 1018.3 1191.7 1582.4 543.2 1039.2 20003 -169.1 1034.6 1203.7 1596.8 547.0 1049.7 20004 -164.6 1051.4 1215.9 1611.6 551.0 1060.6 20011 -160.3 1068.6 1228.9 1626.9 555.1 1071.7 20012 -156.3 1086.3 1242.6 1642.5 559.4 1083.2 20013 -152.6 1104.4 1257.0 1658.6 563.7 1094.9 20014 -149.2 1123.0 1272.2 1675.1 568.2 1106.9 20021 -146.1 1142.1 1288.2 1691.9 572.7 1119.2 20022 -143.2 1161.6 1304.8 1709.1 577.4 1131.7 20023 -140.6 1181.6 1322.2 1726.7 582.1 1144.6 20024 -138.2 1202.1 1340.3 1744.6 587.0 1157.6 20031 -136.0 1223.1 1359.1 1762.9 591.9 1170.9 20032 -134.0 1244.5 1378.5 1781.5 597.0 1184.5 20033 -132.2 1266.4 1398.6 1800.4 602.1 1198.3 20034 -130.5 1288.8 1419.3 1819.7 607.3 1212.4
Line 1 Gross Domestic Product Line 2 Personal Consumption Expenditures Line 3 Durable Goods Line 4 Nondurable Goods Line 5 Services Line 6 Gross Private Domestic Investment Line 7 Fixed Investment Line 8 Nonresidential Line 11 Residential Line 12 Change in Business Inventories Line 13 Net Exports of Goods and Services Line 14 Exports Line 17 Imports Line 20 Government Consumption Expenditures and Gross Investment Line 21 Federal Line 22 State and Local
NIPA Table 1.2
NIPA Table 1.2
US Model Forecasts Gross Domestic Product
Billions of 1992 Dollars
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Table 1.2 Quar. 1 2 3 4 5
19951 6717.5 4556.0 575.2 1410.4 2570.4 19952 6724.2 4594.2 583.5 1415.9 2594.8 19953 6779.5 4624.1 595.3 1418.5 2610.3 19954 6825.8 4650.9 602.4 1425.6 2622.9 19961 6882.0 4693.0 611.0 1433.5 2648.5 19962 6983.9 4748.3 629.5 1450.4 2668.4 19963 7020.0 4769.3 626.5 1454.7 2688.1 19964 7093.1 4804.3 637.5 1465.1 2701.7 19971 7166.7 4856.3 656.3 1477.9 2722.1 19972 7236.5 4874.5 653.8 1477.1 2743.6 19973 7311.2 4950.7 679.6 1495.7 2775.4 19974 7364.6 4983.9 684.8 1494.3 2804.8 19981 7464.7 5060.8 710.3 1521.2 2829.3 19982 7498.6 5137.1 729.4 1540.9 2866.8 19983 7559.5 5184.4 729.4 1549.6 2905.4 19984 7590.4 5212.8 729.0 1557.9 2925.8 19991 7599.4 5241.8 729.7 1566.1 2946.0 19992 7614.8 5270.6 730.8 1573.9 2966.0 19993 7630.8 5300.2 732.4 1581.7 2986.2 19994 7649.8 5332.4 734.5 1590.0 3007.8 20001 7679.5 5364.7 737.6 1598.4 3028.7 20002 7714.7 5396.6 741.0 1606.2 3049.3 20003 7753.4 5429.0 744.9 1614.1 3070.1 20004 7796.7 5464.0 749.1 1622.5 3092.4 20011 7842.3 5499.3 753.9 1630.7 3114.7 20012 7888.6 5534.9 759.2 1638.7 3137.0 20013 7935.1 5571.0 765.1 1646.5 3159.4 20014 7981.5 5607.6 771.4 1654.3 3182.0 20021 8027.7 5644.8 778.0 1662.2 3204.6 20022 8073.8 5682.5 785.1 1670.1 3227.3 20023 8119.9 5720.7 792.4 1678.2 3250.2 20024 8166.0 5759.4 800.0 1686.2 3273.2 20031 8212.2 5798.4 807.7 1694.3 3296.4 20032 8258.5 5837.8 815.7 1702.4 3319.7 20033 8305.1 5877.6 823.8 1710.6 3343.1 20034 8352.0 5917.7 832.0 1718.9 3366.8
Quar. 6 7 8 11 12
19951 1012.6 958.3 698.4 259.9 54.3 19952 981.4 959.7 710.2 249.5 21.7 19953 982.0 967.3 711.7 255.6 14.7 19954 1004.5 984.4 722.3 262.1 20.1 19961 1027.2 1012.8 744.8 268.0 14.4 19962 1070.7 1044.6 764.4 280.2 26.1 19963 1116.6 1069.1 790.1 279.0 47.5 19964 1115.4 1083.3 807.0 276.3 32.1 19971 1155.6 1099.3 820.9 278.4 56.3 19972 1209.7 1130.7 848.2 282.5 79.0 19973 1215.5 1164.5 882.2 282.3 51.0 19974 1240.6 1174.1 886.2 287.9 66.5 19981 1321.8 1230.4 931.9 298.5 91.4 19982 1307.7 1269.5 960.4 309.1 38.2 19983 1329.6 1272.4 958.1 314.3 57.2 19984 1332.8 1276.6 965.9 310.7 56.2 19991 1312.7 1273.8 968.2 305.6 38.9 19992 1298.5 1267.3 967.9 299.5 31.1 19993 1283.2 1259.4 965.9 293.5 23.8 19994 1267.8 1250.7 962.5 288.2 17.1 20001 1257.8 1243.5 959.6 283.9 14.3 20002 1253.7 1238.3 957.7 280.7 15.4 20003 1252.4 1234.9 956.6 278.3 17.5 20004 1253.3 1233.3 956.6 276.7 20.1 20011 1256.7 1233.5 957.6 275.9 23.2 20012 1261.1 1235.0 959.2 275.8 26.1 20013 1265.8 1237.3 961.2 276.1 28.4 20014 1270.3 1240.2 963.5 276.8 30.1 20021 1274.6 1243.5 965.9 277.6 31.1 20022 1278.9 1247.1 968.5 278.6 31.8 20023 1283.0 1250.8 971.1 279.7 32.2 20024 1287.3 1254.8 973.9 280.9 32.5 20031 1291.6 1258.9 976.9 282.1 32.7 20032 1296.2 1263.3 980.0 283.3 32.8 20033 1301.0 1268.0 983.4 284.6 33.0 20034 1306.1 1273.0 987.0 285.9 33.1
Quar. 13 14 17 20
19951 -109.5 763.9 873.4 1256.2 19952 -114.7 774.0 888.7 1259.9 19953 -86.8 806.3 893.1 1257.6 19954 -74.8 826.1 900.9 1244.6 19961 -95.5 833.6 929.1 1254.5 19962 -113.4 845.5 958.9 1276.2 19963 -140.1 849.9 990.0 1271.2 19964 -95.9 911.1 1007.0 1271.3 19971 -121.5 929.4 1050.9 1277.8 19972 -131.6 963.6 1095.2 1284.6 19973 -142.4 988.1 1130.5 1289.0 19974 -149.0 998.8 1147.8 1289.4 19981 -198.5 991.9 1190.4 1283.2 19982 -245.2 972.1 1217.3 1295.0 19983 -262.5 965.0 1227.5 1299.6 19984 -267.7 972.2 1239.9 1304.1 19991 -272.2 979.4 1251.6 1308.6 19992 -275.9 986.6 1262.5 1313.2 19993 -278.8 994.0 1272.8 1317.8 19994 -281.2 1001.3 1282.5 1322.4 20001 -278.4 1013.6 1292.0 1327.0 20002 -275.6 1026.0 1301.7 1331.7 20003 -272.9 1038.6 1311.5 1336.4 20004 -270.2 1051.4 1321.6 1341.1 20011 -268.0 1064.3 1332.3 1345.9 20012 -266.5 1077.4 1343.8 1350.6 20013 -265.5 1090.6 1356.1 1355.4 20014 -265.1 1104.0 1369.0 1360.3 20021 -265.2 1117.5 1382.8 1365.1 20022 -265.9 1131.2 1397.2 1370.0 20023 -267.2 1145.1 1412.3 1374.9 20024 -268.9 1159.2 1428.0 1379.9 20031 -271.0 1173.4 1444.4 1384.8 20032 -273.6 1187.8 1461.4 1389.8 20033 -276.7 1202.4 1479.0 1394.8 20034 -280.1 1217.1 1497.2 1399.9
Line 1 Gross Domestic Product Line 2 Personal Consumption Expenditures Line 3 Durable Goods Line 4 Nondurable Goods Line 5 Services Line 6 Gross Private Domestic Investment Line 7 Fixed Investment Line 8 Nonresidential Line 11 Residential Line 12 Change in Business Inventories Line 13 Net Exports of Goods and Services Line 14 Exports Line 17 Imports Line 20 Government Consumption Expenditures and Gross Investment
NIPA Table 3.2
NIPA Table 3.2
US Model Forecasts Fed. Gov. Receipts and Expenditures
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Table 3.2 Quar. 1 2 6 9 13
19951 1426.1 582.9 172.5 96.0 574.7 19952 1459.3 609.4 176.6 94.6 578.7 19953 1469.1 608.2 186.2 89.2 585.5 19954 1486.8 623.9 182.1 90.3 590.5 19961 1529.9 652.6 191.2 89.9 596.2 19962 1581.8 691.4 195.2 88.5 606.7 19963 1593.6 693.8 194.3 90.5 615.0 19964 1633.5 710.0 191.4 109.2 622.9 19971 1671.1 741.7 203.9 90.7 634.8 19972 1703.5 759.1 206.5 95.5 642.4 19973 1739.6 776.9 217.0 95.1 650.6 19974 1765.5 798.6 212.8 93.8 660.3 19981 1809.1 836.5 204.8 93.9 673.9 19982 1838.3 855.7 206.2 95.2 681.2 19983 1861.9 868.9 206.7 97.3 689.0 19984 1887.4 886.1 207.8 98.2 695.3 19991 1895.5 892.3 204.0 99.0 700.2 19992 1904.8 898.0 202.0 99.9 704.9 19993 1914.2 903.7 200.3 100.8 709.5 19994 1924.6 909.3 199.6 101.7 714.1 20001 1938.5 916.0 200.6 102.6 719.3 20002 1954.8 924.0 202.1 103.6 725.1 20003 1972.6 932.5 204.2 104.6 731.3 20004 1992.4 941.7 207.0 105.7 738.0 20011 2013.6 951.7 210.0 106.7 745.2 20012 2035.8 962.3 213.0 107.9 752.6 20013 2058.8 973.4 216.1 109.0 760.3 20014 2082.3 984.9 219.0 110.2 768.2 20021 2106.4 996.8 222.0 111.4 776.2 20022 2131.2 1009.1 225.1 112.6 784.4 20023 2156.7 1021.8 228.3 113.9 792.8 20024 2182.7 1034.6 231.7 115.1 801.3 20031 2209.3 1047.8 235.1 116.4 810.0 20032 2236.5 1061.3 238.7 117.8 818.8 20033 2264.3 1075.2 242.3 119.1 827.7 20034 2292.7 1089.4 246.0 120.5 836.9
Quar . 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 25 29
19951 1615.8 443.0 707.7 695.8 11.9 212.4 218.3 34.4 -189.7 19952 1637.1 444.7 717.1 706.3 10.8 216.4 224.3 34.6 -177.8 19953 1646.0 447.2 724.8 713.6 11.2 211.0 227.8 35.2 -176.9 19954 1639.8 436.5 731.4 719.8 11.6 208.1 228.7 35.1 -153.0 19961 1679.9 445.7 757.8 738.8 19.0 214.3 227.7 34.4 -150.0 19962 1694.4 453.1 757.9 746.9 11.0 223.8 226.1 33.5 -112.6 19963 1693.8 452.9 762.5 750.7 11.8 219.0 228.6 30.8 -100.2 19964 1711.9 451.8 778.6 755.8 22.8 218.4 231.1 32.0 -78.4 19971 1722.3 456.8 783.4 773.9 9.5 220.7 229.4 32.0 -51.2 19972 1738.4 464.8 787.2 777.3 9.9 223.2 231.6 31.6 -34.9 19973 1739.9 460.0 791.1 781.2 9.9 224.4 231.9 32.5 -0.3 19974 1763.3 460.1 805.9 784.4 21.5 231.8 231.8 33.7 2.2 19981 1750.3 450.9 808.5 798.6 9.9 228.7 228.8 33.4 58.8 19982 1763.8 464.0 811.1 802.1 9.0 226.9 228.3 33.5 74.5 19983 1760.0 458.5 814.4 805.6 8.8 227.6 225.6 33.9 101.9 19984 1764.8 461.9 824.3 815.5 8.8 230.8 214.0 33.9 122.5 19991 1776.7 465.2 834.3 825.5 8.8 234.1 209.1 33.9 118.9 19992 1788.2 468.6 844.4 835.6 8.8 237.4 203.8 33.9 116.6 19993 1800.3 472.1 854.7 845.9 8.8 240.8 198.8 33.9 114.0 19994 1812.4 475.6 865.1 856.3 8.8 244.2 193.6 33.9 112.3 20001 1825.6 479.2 875.6 866.8 8.8 247.7 189.2 33.9 112.9 20002 1840.4 483.0 886.2 877.4 8.8 251.2 186.1 33.9 114.4 20003 1855.2 486.8 897.0 888.2 8.8 254.8 182.7 33.9 117.5 20004 1869.5 490.8 907.9 899.1 8.8 258.4 178.5 33.9 122.9 20011 1892.0 494.9 925.3 916.5 8.8 263.4 174.5 33.9 121.5 20012 1915.8 499.2 943.1 934.3 8.8 268.5 171.1 33.9 120.0 20013 1940.1 503.5 961.3 952.5 8.8 273.7 167.7 33.9 118.6 20014 1964.9 508.0 979.8 971.0 8.8 279.1 164.1 33.9 117.4 20021 1990.6 512.5 998.7 989.9 8.8 284.5 161.1 33.9 115.8 20022 2017.4 517.2 1017.9 1009.1 8.8 290.0 158.4 33.9 113.9 20023 2045.0 521.9 1037.5 1028.7 8.8 295.6 156.1 33.9 111.6 20024 2073.4 526.8 1057.5 1048.7 8.8 301.4 153.8 33.9 109.3 20031 2102.5 531.7 1077.9 1069.1 8.8 307.2 151.8 33.9 106.8 20032 2132.3 536.8 1098.6 1089.8 8.8 313.2 149.8 33.9 104.3 20033 2162.6 541.9 1119.8 1111.0 8.8 319.3 147.8 33.9 101.7 20034 2193.6 547.1 1141.4 1132.6 8.8 325.5 145.8 33.9 99.1
Line 1 Receipts Line 2 Personal Tax and Nontax Receipts Line 6 Corporate Profit Tax Accruals Line 9 Indirect Business Tax and Nontax Accruals Line 13 Contributions for Social Insurance Line 14 Current Expenditures Line 15 Consumption Expenditures Line 16 Transfer Payments (net) Line 17 To Persons Line 18 To Rest of the World (net) Line 19 Grants-in-Aid to State and Local Governments Line 20 Net Interest Paid Line 25 Subsidies less Current Surplus of Government Enterprises Line 29 NIPA Surplus(+) or Deficit(-)
NIPA Table 3.3
NIPA Table 3.3
US Model Forecasts S&L Gov. Receipts and Expenditures
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Table 3.3 Quar. 1 2 6 7 11 12
19951 985.9 184.2 30.4 483.1 75.8 212.4 19952 996.1 186.3 31.0 486.0 76.4 216.4 19953 1001.9 190.8 32.9 490.4 76.8 211.0 19954 1007.1 194.4 32.2 495.3 77.1 208.1 19961 1025.3 197.1 32.7 504.0 77.2 214.3 19962 1048.0 201.9 33.4 511.3 77.6 223.8 19963 1049.2 205.6 33.3 513.3 78.0 219.0 19964 1058.4 209.7 32.8 519.1 78.4 218.4 19971 1075.2 213.9 34.9 526.5 79.2 220.7 19972 1084.5 216.7 35.4 529.5 79.7 223.2 19973 1100.9 222.1 37.3 536.9 80.2 224.4 19974 1116.5 226.9 36.5 540.7 80.6 231.8 19981 1123.3 230.4 35.1 548.0 81.1 228.7 19982 1133.7 237.2 35.4 552.5 81.7 226.9 19983 1148.2 244.3 35.5 558.4 82.4 227.6 19984 1158.9 246.0 35.7 563.3 83.1 230.8 19991 1169.0 247.7 35.0 568.3 83.9 234.1 19992 1179.2 249.3 34.7 573.2 84.6 237.4 19993 1189.7 250.9 34.4 578.2 85.4 240.8 19994 1200.7 252.4 34.3 583.6 86.2 244.2 20001 1212.4 254.3 34.4 589.0 86.9 247.7 20002 1224.7 256.5 34.7 594.6 87.7 251.2 20003 1237.5 258.9 35.1 600.2 88.5 254.8 20004 1251.1 261.5 35.5 606.3 89.3 258.4 20011 1266.5 264.3 36.1 612.6 90.1 263.4 20012 1282.3 267.3 36.6 619.0 90.9 268.5 20013 1298.5 270.4 37.1 625.5 91.8 273.7 20014 1315.1 273.6 37.6 632.3 92.6 279.1 20021 1332.1 276.9 38.1 639.1 93.4 284.5 20022 1349.5 280.4 38.6 646.2 94.3 290.0 20023 1367.3 283.9 39.2 653.4 95.1 295.6 20024 1385.5 287.5 39.8 660.8 96.0 301.4 20031 1404.0 291.2 40.4 668.3 96.9 307.2 20032 1422.9 295.0 41.0 675.9 97.8 313.2 20033 1442.1 298.9 41.6 683.6 98.6 319.3 20034 1461.7 302.9 42.2 691.6 99.5 325.5
Quar. 13 14 15 16 19 20 23 24
19951 875.4 684.8 275.2 -62.7 12.1 -9.8 0.0 110.5 19952 883.3 693.5 279.2 -67.4 12.3 -9.7 0.0 112.8 19953 889.0 698.4 283.4 -70.5 12.6 -9.7 0.0 112.9 19954 896.3 704.2 286.9 -72.1 12.8 -9.9 0.0 110.8 19961 908.1 712.6 289.6 -70.5 13.2 -10.4 0.0 117.2 19962 918.9 721.6 292.3 -70.7 13.6 -10.7 0.0 129.1 19963 926.8 727.8 294.9 -71.4 13.7 -10.8 0.0 122.4 19964 936.6 736.7 297.3 -72.5 14.0 -10.9 0.0 121.8 19971 946.8 747.2 299.7 -75.0 14.4 -10.7 0.0 128.4 19972 954.4 754.0 302.5 -76.7 14.8 -10.6 0.0 130.1 19973 964.3 762.2 305.5 -78.2 14.7 -10.5 0.0 136.6 19974 975.2 771.5 308.6 -79.5 15.1 -10.3 0.0 141.3 19981 983.0 776.7 312.6 -80.7 15.7 -9.9 0.0 140.3 19982 992.5 784.7 315.6 -82.2 16.0 -9.6 0.0 141.2 19983 1002.2 793.1 318.2 -83.7 16.0 -9.4 0.0 146.0 19984 1013.8 802.3 321.4 -84.3 16.2 -9.4 0.0 145.2 19991 1026.1 811.5 325.3 -84.9 16.4 -9.4 0.0 142.9 19992 1039.1 820.9 329.8 -85.6 16.6 -9.4 0.0 140.1 19993 1052.8 830.5 334.7 -86.2 16.8 -9.4 0.0 136.9 19994 1067.0 840.2 340.0 -86.9 17.0 -9.4 0.0 133.7 20001 1081.4 850.2 345.3 -87.5 17.2 -9.4 0.0 131.0 20002 1096.1 860.5 350.6 -88.1 17.4 -9.4 0.0 128.6 20003 1111.0 871.0 355.8 -88.8 17.6 -9.4 0.0 126.5 20004 1126.2 881.9 361.1 -89.5 17.9 -9.4 0.0 124.8 20011 1141.7 893.0 366.3 -90.1 18.1 -9.4 0.0 124.7 20012 1157.5 904.5 371.5 -90.8 18.3 -9.4 0.0 124.8 20013 1173.6 916.2 376.8 -91.5 18.5 -9.4 0.0 124.9 20014 1190.2 928.2 382.3 -92.1 18.7 -9.4 0.0 124.9 20021 1207.1 940.5 387.8 -92.8 19.0 -9.4 0.0 125.0 20022 1224.4 953.0 393.5 -93.5 19.2 -9.4 0.0 125.1 20023 1242.2 965.9 399.3 -94.2 19.4 -9.4 0.0 125.2 20024 1260.3 978.9 405.3 -94.9 19.7 -9.4 0.0 125.2 20031 1278.8 992.2 411.5 -95.6 19.9 -9.4 0.0 125.2 20032 1297.7 1005.8 417.7 -96.3 20.2 -9.4 0.0 125.2 20033 1316.9 1019.6 424.1 -97.0 20.4 -9.4 0.0 125.2 20034 1336.6 1033.7 430.7 -97.8 20.7 -9.4 0.0 125.1
Line 1 Receipts Line 2 Personal Tax and Nontax Receipts Line 6 Corporate Profit Tax Accruals Line 7 Indirect Business Tax and Nontax Accruals Line 11 Contributions for Social Insurance Line 12 Federal Grants-in-Aid Line 13 Current Expenditures Line 14 Consumption Expenditures Line 15 Transfer Payments to Persons Line 16 Net Interest Paid Line 19 Less: Dividends Received by Government Line 20 Subsidies less Current Surplus of Government Enterprises Line 23 Less: Wage Accruals Less Disbursements Line 24 NIPA Surplus(+) or Deficit(-)
NIPA Table 7.1
NIPA Table 7.1
US Model Forecasts of Price Indexes for GDP
Index numbers, 1992=100
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Table 7.1 Quar. 4 8 12 16 20
19951 106.7 106.7 104.0 103.5 109.1 19952 107.2 107.3 103.9 103.9 110.0 19953 107.7 107.8 103.6 104.1 110.8 19954 108.3 108.3 103.4 104.3 111.5 19961 108.9 108.8 103.5 105.1 112.1 19962 109.2 109.5 102.8 106.0 112.9 19963 109.7 109.9 102.6 106.1 113.7 19964 110.2 110.6 102.1 107.0 114.5 19971 111.0 111.2 101.9 107.6 115.5 19972 111.4 111.6 100.9 107.5 116.3 19973 111.8 111.9 100.2 107.7 117.0 19974 112.1 112.2 99.6 108.0 117.6 19981 112.3 112.2 99.3 107.4 118.0 19982 112.6 112.4 98.7 107.4 118.5 19983 112.8 112.7 98.1 107.8 119.0 19984 113.2 113.1 98.4 108.2 119.4 19991 113.7 113.4 98.7 108.5 119.7 19992 114.1 113.8 99.0 108.8 120.1 19993 114.5 114.2 99.3 109.1 120.4 19994 115.0 114.5 99.6 109.5 120.8 20001 115.4 114.9 99.9 109.8 121.2 20002 115.8 115.3 100.3 110.2 121.6 20003 116.3 115.7 100.6 110.6 122.0 20004 116.8 116.1 101.0 111.0 122.5 20011 117.3 116.6 101.4 111.4 122.9 20012 117.8 117.0 101.8 111.8 123.4 20013 118.4 117.5 102.2 112.3 123.9 20014 119.0 118.0 102.6 112.8 124.4 20021 119.6 118.5 103.0 113.2 125.0 20022 120.2 119.0 103.5 113.7 125.5 20023 120.8 119.5 103.9 114.2 126.0 20024 121.4 120.0 104.4 114.7 126.6 20031 122.1 120.6 104.9 115.3 127.2 20032 122.8 121.1 105.3 115.8 127.8 20033 123.5 121.7 105.8 116.3 128.4 20034 124.2 122.3 106.3 116.9 129.0
Quar. 28 32 44 48 60 72
19951 104.4 102.2 110.2 103.1 101.0 107.0 19952 104.6 102.5 110.7 103.8 102.6 107.8 19953 104.8 102.5 111.1 103.6 101.8 108.3 19954 104.8 102.4 111.6 103.1 101.0 109.4 19961 104.6 101.9 112.0 102.8 100.3 110.6 19962 104.3 101.4 112.4 102.1 99.8 110.2 19963 104.6 101.4 113.6 101.4 98.7 110.8 19964 104.5 101.2 114.1 100.3 98.7 111.6 19971 104.3 100.8 114.8 100.1 97.4 112.6 19972 104.0 100.3 115.4 99.7 95.7 113.0 19973 104.0 100.0 116.5 99.4 95.2 113.2 19974 103.9 99.6 117.2 99.0 94.7 113.9 19981 103.3 98.9 117.2 98.1 92.2 114.2 19982 102.9 98.1 117.7 97.7 91.1 114.4 19983 102.4 97.2 118.4 97.0 90.0 114.7 19984 102.7 97.5 118.7 97.3 90.2 115.3 19991 102.9 97.8 119.1 97.6 90.4 115.8 19992 103.1 98.1 119.5 97.9 90.6 116.4 19993 103.4 98.4 119.8 98.2 90.9 117.0 19994 103.6 98.7 120.2 98.6 91.1 117.6 20001 103.9 99.0 120.6 98.9 91.3 118.2 20002 104.2 99.3 121.0 99.2 91.6 118.8 20003 104.6 99.7 121.4 99.6 91.8 119.5 20004 104.9 100.0 121.8 100.0 92.0 120.2 20011 105.3 100.4 122.3 100.4 92.2 120.9 20012 105.7 100.8 122.8 100.8 92.5 121.6 20013 106.1 101.2 123.3 101.3 92.7 122.4 20014 106.6 101.6 123.8 101.7 92.9 123.1 20021 107.0 102.1 124.3 102.2 93.2 123.9 20022 107.5 102.5 124.8 102.7 93.4 124.8 20023 108.0 103.0 125.4 103.2 93.6 125.6 20024 108.5 103.4 126.0 103.7 93.9 126.4 20031 109.0 103.9 126.5 104.2 94.1 127.3 20032 109.5 104.4 127.1 104.8 94.3 128.2 20033 110.0 104.9 127.7 105.3 94.6 129.1 20034 110.5 105.4 128.3 105.9 94.8 130.0
Line 4 Gross Domestic Product Line 8 Personal Consumption Expenditures Line 12 Durable Goods Line 16 Nondurable Goods Line 20 Services Line 28 Fixed Investment Line 32 Nonresidential Line 44 Residential Line 48 Exports of Goods and Services Line 60 Imports of Goods and Services Line 72 Government Consumption Expenditures and Gross Investment