US Forecast: January 30, 1999
Forecast Period

1999:1--2003:4 (20 quarters)

Data

The forecast is based on the national income and product accounts (NIPA) data that were released on January 29, 1999.

The Latest Version of the US Model

For purposes of this forecast the US model has been reestimated through 1998:4. These estimates are presented in the "Chapter 5 tables" at the end of The US Model Workbook. The rest of the specification of the model is in Appendix A at the end of this workbook.

A complete discussion of the November 3, 1998, version of the US model is in Macroeconometric Modeling, which is the main reference for this site. Only one specification change was made for the current version of the model from the November 3, 1998, version, which is that the interest rate variable has been dropped from the fixed investment equation, equation 12. I have been unable to find significant cost of capital effects in the investment equation, and the (insignificant) interest rate variable that I had been using in this equation now has a coefficient estimate of the wrong sign. Alas.

Assumptions Behind the Forecast

Included on this site is an analysis of three economic plans that I did on September 4, 1996. The three plans were the latest (at the time) Congressional plan, the Clinton plan, and the Dole plan. The budget agreement that has recently been worked out by the Democrats and Republicans is probably closest to the original Clinton plan, although the spending cuts are not as large as the originally planned cuts. The following table gives for the key government policy variables in the model 1) the growth rates used for the current forecast, 2) the growth rates I used in analyzing the original Clinton plan, and 3) the actual growth rates between 1993:3 and 1998:4.


                 Growth Rates (annual rates)

            Current         Clinton          Actual     
           Forecast           Plan       1998:4-1993.3  

TRGH          5.0/8.0         4.3             4.4       
COG           2.0            -4.8            -0.5       
JG           -1.0            -4.8            -1.3       
TRGS          5.8/8.0         5.8             4.7       
TRSH          6.0             6.0             6.8       
COS           3.0             1.0             3.8       
JS            1.0             1.0             1.6       

Notes: 5.0/8.0 means 5.0% through 2000.4 and 8.0% thereafter.
       5.8/8.0 means 5.8% through 2000.4 and 8.0% thereafter. 


All tax rates are assumed to remain unchanged for the current forecast. It may help you to review the analysis of the Congressional and Clinton plans on the site to put the current assumptions in perspective.

If you examine the federal government surplus variable (SGP), you can see that the current fiscal-policy assumptions result in a surplus of around $100 billion per year for the next three years and the slightly less that this per year for the remaining forecast period. The predicted value of SGP begins at $106.9 billion in 1999:1 and ends at $48.7 billion in 2003:4. This projected surplus is less than the current CBO projected surplus.

No assumption about monetary policy is needed for the forecast because monetary policy is endogenous (equation 30, the interest rate reaction function). As can be seen from the second page of Table F1, the model is predicting the bill rate to rise to about 5 percent by the end of 1999 and then to remain roughly at this level throughout the rest of the forecast period.

The Results

The basic message of previous forecasts from the model was that 1999 looked weak, with real growth around 2 percent or less. The current forecast is for real growth (at an annual rate) in the four quarters of 1999 to be 3.1, 2.5, 1.9, and 1.6, respectively. Fourth quarter over fourth quarter the growth rate is 2.3 percent. 1999 thus now looks better. Only in the last two quarters is the growth rate under 2 percent. From 2000 on the growth rate is projected to be slighly over 2 percent. The unemployment rate remains low for the next few years. The The inflation rate as measured by the growth of the GDP price index (GDPD) gradually rises to 2.3 percent by 2003. The household savings rate (variable SRZ in the model) is forecast to be negative throughout the period.

You can examine the tables of this forecast memo for the details, or you can print out the forecast values from the base data set for the model. Although the model is used to forecast through 2003:4, you should not put much confidence on the results beyond about 2000. Forecast error bands are fairly large for predictions this far ahead.

Possible Experiments to Run

The present forecast is a good base from which to make alternative fiscal-policy assumptions, depending on what you think Congress might do in light of the fairly rosy budget picture.

As a historical footnote, the model has consistently been more optimistic about the size of future federal government deficits than have most others, especially regarding future tax revenues, and the recent data suggest that the model has been right. The CBO and others have now moved in the optimistic direction. You may want to compare the current CBO forecasts with those from the model. My sense is that the model has conveyed useful information in the past about the deficit that was not in the CBO forecasts at the time. As noted above, it is now the case that the model is less optimistic than is CBO regarding future federal budget values.

You may also want to drop the interest rate reaction function (equation 30) and put in your own assumptions about Fed behavior. For example, do you think the Fed will raise interest rates in response to the strong 1998:4 numbers and the booming stock market? The reaction function says it will a little. If you raise interest rates, you can see the response to the economy to this contractionary move.

US Forecast Tables: January 30, 1999
Table F1: Forecasts of Selected Variables--Real GDP and Components
Table F1 (continued)--Prices and Wages
Table F1 (continued)--Money and Interest Rates
Table F1 (continued)--Employment and Labor Force
Table F1 (continued)--Other Endogenous
Table F1 (continued)--Selected Exogenous
Table F2: Forecasts of the Federal Government Budget
Table F3: Forecasts of the State and Local Government Budget
Table F4: Forecasts of Savings Flows
NIPA Table 1.1
NIPA Table 1.2
NIPA Table 3.2
NIPA Table 3.3
NIPA Table 7.1
Table F1: Forecasts of Selected Variables
Table F1
US Model Forecasts of Selected Variables
Real GDP and Components
Billions of 1992 Dollars

Quar. GDPR %Ch CS %Ch CN %Ch CD %Ch
19951 6717.5 1.7 2570.4 2.3 1410.4 2.3 575.2 -1.0 19952 6724.2 0.4 2594.8 3.9 1415.9 1.6 583.5 5.9 19953 6779.5 3.3 2610.3 2.4 1418.5 0.7 595.3 8.3 19954 6825.8 2.8 2622.9 1.9 1425.6 2.0 602.4 4.9 19961 6882.0 3.3 2648.5 4.0 1433.5 2.2 611.0 5.8 19962 6983.9 6.1 2668.4 3.0 1450.4 4.8 629.5 12.7 19963 7020.0 2.1 2688.1 3.0 1454.7 1.2 626.5 -1.9 19964 7093.1 4.2 2701.7 2.0 1465.1 2.9 637.5 7.2 19971 7166.7 4.2 2722.1 3.1 1477.9 3.5 656.3 12.3 19972 7236.5 4.0 2743.6 3.2 1477.1 -0.2 653.8 -1.5 19973 7311.2 4.2 2775.4 4.7 1495.7 5.1 679.6 16.7 19974 7364.6 3.0 2804.8 4.3 1494.3 -0.4 684.8 3.1 19981 7464.7 5.5 2829.3 3.5 1521.2 7.4 710.3 15.7 19982 7498.6 1.8 2866.8 5.4 1540.9 5.3 729.4 11.2 19983 7566.5 3.7 2904.8 5.4 1549.1 2.1 733.7 2.4 19984 7670.0 5.6 2916.8 1.7 1561.4 3.2 770.1 21.4 19991 7728.2 3.1 2939.9 3.2 1572.1 2.8 775.6 2.9 19992 7775.9 2.5 2962.4 3.1 1582.1 2.6 782.2 3.4 19993 7812.5 1.9 2985.0 3.1 1591.9 2.5 789.6 3.9 19994 7843.5 1.6 3009.0 3.2 1601.9 2.5 798.1 4.4 20001 7880.1 1.9 3032.0 3.1 1611.5 2.4 807.2 4.6 20002 7919.3 2.0 3054.5 3.0 1620.5 2.2 816.0 4.4 20003 7960.2 2.1 3077.0 3.0 1629.2 2.2 824.9 4.4 20004 8005.7 2.3 3101.0 3.2 1638.4 2.3 834.4 4.7 20011 8053.2 2.4 3124.9 3.1 1647.2 2.2 843.6 4.5 20012 8101.0 2.4 3148.9 3.1 1655.7 2.1 852.7 4.4 20013 8148.6 2.4 3172.9 3.1 1664.1 2.0 861.8 4.3 20014 8195.4 2.3 3196.9 3.1 1672.3 2.0 871.0 4.3 20021 8241.6 2.3 3221.1 3.1 1680.6 2.0 880.2 4.3 20022 8287.1 2.2 3245.4 3.1 1688.9 2.0 889.5 4.3 20023 8332.2 2.2 3269.9 3.1 1697.3 2.0 899.0 4.3 20024 8377.0 2.2 3294.5 3.0 1705.7 2.0 908.5 4.3 20031 8421.5 2.1 3319.3 3.0 1714.1 2.0 918.2 4.3 20032 8465.9 2.1 3344.3 3.0 1722.6 2.0 928.1 4.4 20033 8510.3 2.1 3369.6 3.1 1731.2 2.0 938.1 4.4 20034 8555.0 2.1 3395.0 3.1 1739.8 2.0 948.3 4.4
Quar. IHH %Ch IKF %Ch IVF IM %Ch
19951 224.4 -18.6 598.6 22.0 54.3 873.4 9.8 19952 213.3 -18.4 604.2 3.8 21.7 888.7 7.2 19953 220.2 13.6 608.9 3.1 14.7 893.1 2.0 19954 224.6 8.3 608.2 -0.4 20.1 900.9 3.5 19961 231.7 13.1 631.7 16.3 14.4 929.1 13.1 19962 241.1 17.2 642.8 7.2 26.1 958.9 13.5 19963 239.2 -3.1 661.1 11.9 47.5 990.0 13.6 19964 238.2 -1.6 681.9 13.1 32.1 1007.0 7.0 19971 241.0 4.8 688.2 3.8 56.3 1050.9 18.6 19972 243.5 4.3 706.8 11.2 79.0 1095.2 18.0 19973 242.0 -2.5 729.6 13.6 51.0 1130.5 13.5 19974 247.5 9.4 722.7 -3.8 66.5 1147.8 6.3 19981 256.9 16.0 761.9 23.6 91.4 1190.4 15.7 19982 267.3 17.1 792.5 17.1 38.2 1217.3 9.4 19983 276.9 15.2 810.6 9.4 55.7 1224.3 2.3 19984 283.6 10.1 842.6 16.7 48.9 1270.6 16.0 19991 283.9 0.3 855.2 6.1 56.4 1286.2 5.0 19992 281.9 -2.8 865.4 4.8 58.2 1301.8 5.0 19993 276.4 -7.5 873.5 3.8 52.8 1316.7 4.6 19994 269.9 -9.0 877.8 2.0 42.9 1330.6 4.3 20001 263.9 -8.7 880.0 1.0 35.4 1344.0 4.1 20002 258.8 -7.5 881.1 0.5 31.8 1357.4 4.0 20003 254.4 -6.5 881.4 0.1 29.7 1370.5 3.9 20004 250.8 -5.5 881.7 0.1 28.7 1383.6 3.9 20011 248.3 -3.9 881.8 0.1 29.6 1397.1 4.0 20012 246.7 -2.6 881.7 -0.1 30.9 1411.2 4.1 20013 245.8 -1.5 881.2 -0.2 32.1 1425.7 4.2 20014 245.3 -0.7 880.2 -0.5 32.8 1440.8 4.3 20021 245.3 0.0 878.6 -0.7 33.2 1456.4 4.4 20022 245.6 0.5 876.3 -1.0 33.2 1472.5 4.5 20023 246.2 1.0 873.5 -1.3 33.1 1489.2 4.6 20024 247.1 1.4 870.2 -1.5 32.9 1506.4 4.7 20031 248.1 1.7 866.5 -1.7 32.6 1524.2 4.8 20032 249.3 1.9 862.3 -1.9 32.4 1542.5 4.9 20033 250.7 2.2 858.0 -2.0 32.2 1561.4 5.0 20034 252.1 2.4 853.4 -2.1 32.0 1580.9 5.1
GDPR Real GDP CS Consumption - Services CN Consumption - Nondurables CD Consumption - Durables IHH Residential Investment IKF Nonresidential Investment IVF Inventory Investment IM Imports %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Prices and Wages - %Ch
                                                                         

Quar. GDPD PF WF WR
19951 2.5 2.5 2.0 -0.5 19952 1.8 2.2 6.7 4.4 19953 1.9 2.2 2.0 -0.2 19954 2.0 1.3 4.6 3.3 19961 2.3 1.9 4.2 2.3 19962 1.2 1.7 4.6 2.9 19963 1.8 1.8 3.5 1.7 19964 1.8 1.1 2.2 1.1 19971 2.8 4.5 2.0 -2.4 19972 1.6 1.7 3.6 1.8 19973 1.2 1.6 5.4 3.7 19974 1.2 1.3 4.1 2.8 19981 0.8 1.1 4.5 3.4 19982 0.9 1.2 5.7 4.5 19983 1.0 1.3 4.6 3.2 19984 0.8 -0.2 5.0 5.2 19991 1.4 1.4 2.7 1.3 19992 1.5 1.4 2.8 1.3 19993 1.6 1.5 2.9 1.4 19994 1.6 1.5 2.9 1.4 20001 1.6 1.5 2.9 1.4 20002 1.7 1.6 3.0 1.4 20003 1.7 1.6 3.1 1.4 20004 1.8 1.7 3.1 1.4 20011 1.8 1.7 3.2 1.4 20012 1.9 1.8 3.2 1.5 20013 1.9 1.8 3.3 1.5 20014 2.0 1.9 3.3 1.5 20021 2.0 1.9 3.4 1.5 20022 2.1 1.9 3.4 1.5 20023 2.1 1.9 3.4 1.5 20024 2.1 2.0 3.5 1.5 20031 2.1 2.0 3.5 1.5 20032 2.2 2.0 3.5 1.5 20033 2.2 2.0 3.5 1.5 20034 2.2 2.0 3.6 1.5
GDPD GDP Price Index PF Firm Sector Price Index WF Nominal Wage Rate WR Real Wage Rate %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Money and Interest Rates
                                                                         

Quar. RS RB RM M1 %Ch UBR
19951 5.8 8.3 8.9 1210.5 1.1 67.4 19952 5.6 7.7 8.2 1215.9 1.8 66.1 19953 5.4 7.4 8.1 1202.9 -4.2 66.1 19954 5.3 7.0 7.5 1200.5 -0.8 70.1 19961 4.9 7.0 7.6 1195.3 -1.7 66.3 19962 5.0 7.6 8.5 1201.4 2.0 67.7 19963 5.1 7.6 8.6 1215.8 4.9 68.6 19964 5.0 7.2 8.1 1204.9 -3.5 69.6 19971 5.1 7.4 8.2 1224.8 6.8 62.9 19972 5.1 7.6 8.2 1240.8 5.3 68.1 19973 5.1 7.2 7.7 1232.8 -2.6 71.4 19974 5.1 6.9 7.4 1249.6 5.6 73.8 19981 5.1 6.7 7.1 1265.9 5.3 71.1 19982 5.0 6.6 7.2 1278.4 4.0 69.8 19983 4.8 6.5 7.0 1286.8 2.6 76.1 19984 4.3 6.3 6.5 1310.3 7.5 77.5 19991 4.4 6.4 6.6 1329.6 6.1 78.3 19992 4.8 6.5 6.8 1348.3 5.7 79.1 19993 4.9 6.6 7.1 1366.5 5.5 80.0 19994 4.9 6.6 7.2 1384.2 5.3 80.9 20001 4.9 6.6 7.3 1401.6 5.1 81.8 20002 4.9 6.7 7.4 1418.5 4.9 82.6 20003 5.0 6.7 7.5 1435.2 4.8 83.4 20004 5.0 6.8 7.6 1451.5 4.6 84.2 20011 5.1 6.8 7.6 1467.7 4.5 84.9 20012 5.1 6.9 7.7 1483.8 4.5 85.7 20013 5.2 6.9 7.8 1499.8 4.4 86.4 20014 5.2 7.0 7.8 1515.9 4.3 87.2 20021 5.2 7.0 7.9 1531.9 4.3 87.9 20022 5.2 7.0 7.9 1548.0 4.3 88.6 20023 5.2 7.1 8.0 1564.1 4.2 89.4 20024 5.2 7.1 8.0 1580.2 4.2 90.1 20031 5.2 7.1 8.0 1596.5 4.2 90.9 20032 5.1 7.1 8.0 1612.8 4.2 91.6 20033 5.1 7.1 8.0 1629.3 4.1 92.4 20034 5.1 7.1 8.0 1645.9 4.1 93.2
RS Bill Rate RB Bond Rate RM Mortgage Rate M1 Money Supply UBR Unborrowed Reserves %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Employment and Labor Force
                                                                         

Quar. 100UR L1 L2 L3 JF E U %Ch %Ch %Ch %Ch %Ch mill.
19951 5.5 1.3 1.5 -1.2 3.0 1.3 7.2 19952 5.7 -0.2 1.7 -0.9 0.8 -0.7 7.5 19953 5.7 -0.4 1.8 1.5 2.0 0.9 7.5 19954 5.6 0.9 2.8 -2.5 1.5 0.9 7.4 19961 5.5 2.3 0.9 -0.6 2.1 1.2 7.4 19962 5.5 2.0 2.3 1.5 2.2 2.2 7.3 19963 5.3 1.8 2.8 0.9 2.7 2.8 7.1 19964 5.3 1.4 2.7 2.4 2.6 1.9 7.2 19971 5.2 2.0 0.8 4.3 3.2 2.6 7.1 19972 5.0 0.7 1.5 1.9 2.1 2.3 6.8 19973 4.9 1.2 2.6 -0.9 1.5 1.5 6.6 19974 4.7 0.2 -1.8 5.2 2.8 1.7 6.4 19981 4.6 0.8 1.2 3.0 2.4 1.7 6.4 19982 4.4 -0.1 -0.8 1.3 2.7 1.0 6.1 19983 4.5 0.0 0.8 2.1 2.0 0.4 6.2 19984 4.4 1.6 1.0 3.0 1.7 2.3 6.1 19991 4.3 0.7 2.0 1.3 2.0 2.0 5.9 19992 4.1 0.7 2.0 1.4 1.9 1.9 5.7 19993 4.1 0.7 2.0 1.4 1.6 1.6 5.7 19994 4.1 0.7 2.1 1.4 1.2 1.3 5.7 20001 4.1 0.7 2.1 1.4 1.1 1.2 5.8 20002 4.2 0.7 2.1 1.4 1.1 1.1 5.9 20003 4.3 0.8 2.1 1.5 1.1 1.1 6.0 20004 4.3 0.8 2.1 1.5 1.1 1.2 6.1 20011 4.4 0.8 2.1 1.5 1.2 1.2 6.2 20012 4.4 0.8 2.1 1.5 1.2 1.2 6.3 20013 4.5 0.8 2.1 1.5 1.2 1.2 6.4 20014 4.5 0.8 2.1 1.5 1.2 1.2 6.5 20021 4.6 0.8 2.1 1.5 1.1 1.1 6.6 20022 4.7 0.8 2.1 1.5 1.1 1.1 6.8 20023 4.8 0.7 2.1 1.5 1.1 1.1 6.9 20024 4.8 0.7 2.1 1.5 1.0 1.0 7.1 20031 4.9 0.7 2.1 1.5 1.0 1.0 7.2 20032 5.0 0.7 2.1 1.5 1.0 1.0 7.4 20033 5.1 0.7 2.1 1.5 0.9 1.0 7.6 20034 5.2 0.7 2.1 1.5 0.9 1.0 7.8
UR Unemployment Rate L1 Labor Force, Men 25-54 L2 Labor Force, Women 25-54 L3 Labor Force, All Others 16+ JF Jobs, Firm Sector E Total Employment U Total Unemployment %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Other Endogenous Variables
                                                                         

Quar. CG PIEF PIEF 100SRZ PROD SR SGP SSP %Ch %Ch
19951 1226.0 516.5 10.2 4.5 -2.4 110.7 -189.7 110.5 19952 1193.6 525.3 7.0 3.5 0.0 118.1 -177.8 112.8 19953 1388.7 534.8 7.4 3.4 0.4 100.1 -176.9 112.9 19954 1007.9 547.3 9.7 3.7 3.8 73.6 -153.0 110.8 19961 881.6 553.3 4.5 3.5 2.9 97.8 -150.0 117.2 19962 445.1 566.6 10.0 2.8 3.5 114.9 -112.6 129.1 19963 496.8 570.3 2.6 3.3 0.4 146.1 -100.2 122.4 19964 1469.4 587.6 12.7 2.9 2.6 117.8 -78.4 121.8 19971 -98.2 584.8 -1.9 2.5 -0.8 130.9 -51.2 128.4 19972 3043.9 601.1 11.6 2.8 1.6 123.9 -34.9 130.1 19973 1911.2 630.5 21.0 1.8 3.2 140.9 -0.3 136.6 19974 523.5 601.5 -17.2 1.8 0.1 167.8 2.2 141.3 19981 2870.0 582.5 -12.0 1.3 3.0 175.5 58.8 140.3 19982 477.5 588.7 4.3 0.5 0.0 214.8 74.5 141.2 19983 -2382.2 587.4 -0.9 0.3 2.7 231.8 92.0 148.7 19984 600.0 619.5 23.7 0.0 4.4 243.7 87.4 172.6 19991 147.2 652.2 22.8 -0.4 1.6 250.3 106.9 173.9 19992 116.8 653.5 0.8 -0.5 1.1 256.8 108.1 175.3 19993 153.9 649.1 -2.7 -0.6 0.8 262.4 107.8 175.5 19994 185.5 643.8 -3.2 -0.9 0.8 267.1 107.4 175.0 20001 183.9 643.4 -0.3 -1.2 1.2 266.3 107.6 174.3 20002 173.4 643.6 0.1 -1.4 1.3 265.0 107.2 173.4 20003 176.4 645.8 1.4 -1.5 1.4 263.3 107.7 172.5 20004 180.4 651.7 3.8 -1.7 1.5 261.2 110.8 171.9 20011 177.9 659.2 4.6 -1.8 1.5 259.1 106.9 172.7 20012 177.5 667.0 4.8 -1.8 1.5 257.1 102.6 173.5 20013 179.1 675.0 4.9 -1.9 1.5 255.2 98.5 174.3 20014 182.1 683.1 4.9 -1.9 1.4 253.5 94.4 175.0 20021 185.7 691.6 5.1 -1.9 1.4 251.9 89.7 175.6 20022 189.4 700.6 5.3 -2.0 1.4 250.4 84.5 176.2 20023 193.3 710.4 5.7 -2.0 1.4 249.2 79.0 176.8 20024 197.8 721.4 6.4 -2.0 1.4 248.1 73.3 177.3 20031 201.5 733.2 6.7 -2.1 1.4 247.1 67.4 177.7 20032 205.2 746.0 7.1 -2.1 1.4 246.4 61.2 178.2 20033 208.5 759.6 7.5 -2.2 1.4 245.9 54.9 178.7 20034 211.3 773.8 7.7 -2.2 1.4 245.5 48.7 179.3
CG Capital Gains PIEF Profits SRZ Saving Rate PROD Productivity SR Savings-Foreign Sector SGP Federal Budget Deficit(-), NIPA SSP S&L Budget Deficit(-), NIPA %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Selected Exogenous Variables
                                                                         

Quar. COG COS EX TRGH TRGH PIM %Ch %Ch %Ch %Ch %Ch
19951 -2.3 2.1 9.2 695.8 13.0 1.4 19952 -2.4 7.6 5.4 706.3 6.2 6.1 19953 -2.5 0.0 17.8 713.6 4.2 -2.7 19954 -15.9 4.7 10.2 719.8 3.5 -3.3 19961 17.3 3.8 3.7 738.8 11.0 -2.6 19962 12.8 5.9 5.8 746.9 4.5 -2.1 19963 -6.9 0.5 2.1 750.7 2.1 -4.4 19964 -7.6 9.2 32.1 755.8 2.7 0.1 19971 -4.3 11.5 8.3 773.9 9.9 -5.2 19972 9.8 -0.6 15.6 777.3 1.8 -6.8 19973 -1.2 3.8 10.6 781.2 2.0 -1.9 19974 1.1 0.7 4.4 784.4 1.6 -2.0 19981 -17.2 2.6 -2.7 798.6 7.4 -10.4 19982 16.9 0.9 -7.7 802.1 1.8 -4.6 19983 -3.0 4.8 -2.8 805.8 1.9 -4.8 19984 16.1 2.4 18.8 808.7 1.4 -0.2 19991 2.0 3.0 3.0 818.6 5.0 1.0 19992 2.0 3.0 3.0 828.7 5.0 1.0 19993 2.0 3.0 3.0 838.8 5.0 1.0 19994 2.0 3.0 3.0 849.1 5.0 1.0 20001 2.0 3.0 5.0 859.6 5.0 1.0 20002 2.0 3.0 5.0 870.1 5.0 1.0 20003 2.0 3.0 5.0 880.8 5.0 1.0 20004 2.0 3.0 5.0 891.6 5.0 1.0 20011 2.0 3.0 5.0 908.9 8.0 1.0 20012 2.0 3.0 5.0 926.6 8.0 1.0 20013 2.0 3.0 5.0 944.6 8.0 1.0 20014 2.0 3.0 5.0 962.9 8.0 1.0 20021 2.0 3.0 5.0 981.6 8.0 1.0 20022 2.0 3.0 5.0 1000.7 8.0 1.0 20023 2.0 3.0 5.0 1020.1 8.0 1.0 20024 2.0 3.0 5.0 1040.0 8.0 1.0 20031 2.0 3.0 5.0 1060.2 8.0 1.0 20032 2.0 3.0 5.0 1080.8 8.0 1.0 20033 2.0 3.0 5.0 1101.7 8.0 1.0 20034 2.0 3.0 5.0 1123.1 8.0 1.0
COG Real Federal Purchases of Goods COS Real S&L Purchases of Goods EX Exports TRGH Nominal Federal Transfer Payments PIM Import Price Index %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F2: Forecasts of the Federal Government Budget
Table F2
US Model Forecasts of the Federal Government Budget
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Quar. RECG TFG TCG IBTG SIG
19951 1426.1 582.9 172.5 96.0 574.7 19952 1459.3 609.4 176.6 94.6 578.7 19953 1469.1 608.2 186.2 89.2 585.5 19954 1486.8 623.9 182.1 90.3 590.5 19961 1529.9 652.6 191.2 89.9 596.2 19962 1581.8 691.4 195.2 88.5 606.7 19963 1593.6 693.8 194.3 90.5 615.0 19964 1633.5 710.0 191.4 109.2 622.9 19971 1671.1 741.7 203.9 90.7 634.8 19972 1703.5 759.1 206.5 95.5 642.4 19973 1739.6 776.9 217.0 95.1 650.6 19974 1765.5 798.6 212.8 93.8 660.3 19981 1809.1 836.5 204.8 93.9 673.9 19982 1838.3 855.7 206.2 95.2 681.2 19983 1858.8 863.8 207.5 98.3 689.2 19984 1885.4 875.4 215.1 97.2 697.7 19991 1907.1 880.8 222.9 98.2 705.1 19992 1926.7 892.0 223.2 99.3 712.2 19993 1942.8 901.6 222.2 100.4 718.7 19994 1957.0 909.9 220.9 101.5 724.7 20001 1973.2 918.8 220.8 102.6 731.0 20002 1990.7 928.6 220.9 103.7 737.5 20003 2009.2 938.7 221.4 104.9 744.2 20004 2029.5 949.2 222.8 106.1 751.4 20011 2051.0 960.2 224.6 107.3 758.9 20012 2073.4 971.8 226.4 108.5 766.6 20013 2096.3 983.7 228.3 109.7 774.5 20014 2119.5 995.7 230.3 111.0 782.5 20021 2143.2 1008.0 232.3 112.3 790.6 20022 2167.4 1020.6 234.4 113.6 798.8 20023 2192.0 1033.3 236.8 114.9 807.1 20024 2217.1 1046.0 239.4 116.2 815.5 20031 2242.6 1059.0 242.2 117.6 823.9 20032 2268.7 1072.1 245.2 118.9 832.4 20033 2295.2 1085.4 248.5 120.3 841.1 20034 2322.3 1098.9 251.9 121.7 849.8
Quar. EXPG PUG-IGZ TRGH TRGR TRGS INTG SUBG SGP
19951 1615.8 443.0 695.8 11.9 212.4 218.3 34.4 -189.7 19952 1637.1 444.7 706.3 10.8 216.4 224.3 34.6 -177.8 19953 1646.0 447.2 713.6 11.2 211.0 227.8 35.2 -176.9 19954 1639.8 436.5 719.8 11.6 208.1 228.7 35.1 -153.0 19961 1679.9 445.7 738.8 19.0 214.3 227.7 34.4 -150.0 19962 1694.4 453.1 746.9 11.0 223.8 226.1 33.5 -112.6 19963 1693.8 452.9 750.7 11.8 219.0 228.6 30.8 -100.2 19964 1711.9 451.8 755.8 22.8 218.4 231.1 32.0 -78.4 19971 1722.3 456.8 773.9 9.5 220.7 229.4 32.0 -51.2 19972 1738.4 464.8 777.3 9.9 223.2 231.6 31.6 -34.9 19973 1739.9 460.0 781.2 9.9 224.4 231.9 32.5 -0.3 19974 1763.3 460.1 784.4 21.5 231.8 231.8 33.7 2.2 19981 1750.3 450.9 798.6 9.9 228.7 228.8 33.4 58.8 19982 1763.8 464.0 802.1 9.0 226.9 228.3 33.5 74.5 19983 1766.8 458.7 805.8 11.2 231.4 225.7 34.0 92.0 19984 1798.0 471.0 808.7 20.6 237.9 223.5 36.3 87.4 19991 1800.2 474.5 818.6 20.6 241.3 208.8 36.3 106.9 19992 1818.6 478.1 828.7 20.6 244.7 210.2 36.3 108.1 19993 1835.0 481.9 838.8 20.6 248.2 209.2 36.3 107.8 19994 1849.6 485.7 849.1 20.6 251.7 206.2 36.3 107.4 20001 1865.6 489.6 859.6 20.6 255.3 204.3 36.3 107.6 20002 1883.6 493.5 870.1 20.6 258.9 204.1 36.3 107.2 20003 1901.5 497.6 880.8 20.6 262.6 203.6 36.3 107.7 20004 1918.7 501.8 891.6 20.6 266.3 202.1 36.3 110.8 20011 1944.1 506.1 908.9 20.6 271.5 200.8 36.3 106.9 20012 1970.7 510.5 926.6 20.6 276.7 200.1 36.3 102.6 20013 1997.8 514.9 944.6 20.6 282.1 199.3 36.3 98.5 20014 2025.2 519.5 962.9 20.6 287.6 198.2 36.3 94.4 20021 2053.5 524.2 981.6 20.6 293.2 197.7 36.3 89.7 20022 2082.9 528.9 1000.7 20.6 298.9 197.5 36.3 84.5 20023 2113.0 533.7 1020.1 20.6 304.7 197.6 36.3 79.0 20024 2143.8 538.6 1040.0 20.6 310.6 197.7 36.3 73.3 20031 2175.2 543.6 1060.2 20.6 316.6 198.0 36.3 67.4 20032 2207.5 548.6 1080.8 20.6 322.8 198.4 36.3 61.2 20033 2240.3 553.7 1101.7 20.6 329.1 198.9 36.3 54.9 20034 2273.6 558.8 1123.1 20.6 335.5 199.2 36.3 48.7
RECG Total Receipts TPG Personal Tax TCG Corporate Tax IBTG Indirect Business Tax SIG Social Insurance Contributions EXPG Total Current Expenditures PUG-IGZ Consumption Expenditures TRGH Transfer Payments to Persons TRGR Transfer Payments to Rest of the World TRGS Grants in Aid to S&L Governments INTG Net Interest Paid SUBG Subsidies less Current Surplus SGP NIPA Surplus(+) or Deficit(-)
Table F3: Forecasts of the State and Local Government Budget
Table F3
US Model Forecasts of the S&L Government Budget
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Quar. RECS TFS TCS IBTS SIS TRGS
19951 985.9 184.2 30.4 483.1 75.8 212.4 19952 996.1 186.3 31.0 486.0 76.4 216.4 19953 1001.9 190.8 32.9 490.4 76.8 211.0 19954 1007.1 194.4 32.2 495.3 77.1 208.1 19961 1025.3 197.1 32.7 504.0 77.2 214.3 19962 1048.0 201.9 33.4 511.3 77.6 223.8 19963 1049.2 205.6 33.3 513.3 78.0 219.0 19964 1058.4 209.7 32.8 519.1 78.4 218.4 19971 1075.2 213.9 34.9 526.5 79.2 220.7 19972 1084.5 216.7 35.4 529.5 79.7 223.2 19973 1100.9 222.1 37.3 536.9 80.2 224.4 19974 1116.5 226.9 36.5 540.7 80.6 231.8 19981 1123.3 230.4 35.1 548.0 81.1 228.7 19982 1133.7 237.2 35.4 552.5 81.7 226.9 19983 1152.3 244.6 35.7 558.2 82.4 231.4 19984 1186.0 248.9 37.0 579.0 83.2 237.9 19991 1199.2 250.5 38.4 585.2 83.9 241.3 19992 1212.9 253.7 38.4 591.4 84.7 244.7 19993 1226.1 256.5 38.2 597.8 85.5 248.2 19994 1239.3 258.9 38.0 604.5 86.2 251.7 20001 1253.0 261.4 38.0 611.3 87.0 255.3 20002 1266.9 264.3 38.0 618.0 87.8 258.9 20003 1281.2 267.2 38.1 624.7 88.6 262.6 20004 1296.1 270.2 38.3 631.9 89.4 266.3 20011 1312.8 273.4 38.6 639.1 90.2 271.5 20012 1329.8 276.7 39.0 646.4 91.0 276.7 20013 1347.2 280.2 39.3 653.7 91.8 282.1 20014 1364.8 283.7 39.6 661.2 92.7 287.6 20021 1382.7 287.2 40.0 668.8 93.5 293.2 20022 1400.9 290.9 40.3 676.5 94.3 298.9 20023 1419.5 294.5 40.7 684.3 95.2 304.7 20024 1438.4 298.2 41.2 692.2 96.1 310.6 20031 1457.5 302.0 41.7 700.3 96.9 316.6 20032 1477.1 305.8 42.2 708.5 97.8 322.8 20033 1497.0 309.6 42.7 716.8 98.7 329.1 20034 1517.2 313.6 43.3 725.2 99.6 335.5
Quar. EXPS PUS-ISZ TRSH INTS DRS SUBS SSP
19951 875.4 684.8 275.2 -62.7 12.1 -9.8 110.5 19952 883.3 693.5 279.2 -67.4 12.3 -9.7 112.8 19953 889.0 698.4 283.4 -70.5 12.6 -9.7 112.9 19954 896.3 704.2 286.9 -72.1 12.8 -9.9 110.8 19961 908.1 712.6 289.6 -70.5 13.2 -10.4 117.2 19962 918.9 721.6 292.3 -70.7 13.6 -10.7 129.1 19963 926.8 727.8 294.9 -71.4 13.7 -10.8 122.4 19964 936.6 736.7 297.3 -72.5 14.0 -10.9 121.8 19971 946.8 747.2 299.7 -75.0 14.4 -10.7 128.4 19972 954.4 754.0 302.5 -76.7 14.8 -10.6 130.1 19973 964.3 762.2 305.5 -78.2 14.7 -10.5 136.6 19974 975.2 771.5 308.6 -79.5 15.1 -10.3 141.3 19981 983.0 776.7 312.6 -80.7 15.7 -9.9 140.3 19982 992.5 784.7 315.6 -82.2 16.0 -9.6 141.2 19983 1003.6 793.9 318.8 -83.7 16.0 -9.4 148.7 19984 1013.4 801.7 322.9 -85.4 16.6 -9.2 172.6 19991 1025.3 811.1 326.2 -86.0 16.8 -9.2 173.9 19992 1037.6 820.9 329.6 -86.7 17.0 -9.2 175.3 19993 1050.6 830.8 333.5 -87.3 17.2 -9.2 175.5 19994 1064.4 841.0 338.0 -88.0 17.4 -9.2 175.0 20001 1078.7 851.3 342.8 -88.6 17.6 -9.2 174.3 20002 1093.5 861.9 347.9 -89.3 17.9 -9.2 173.4 20003 1108.7 872.8 353.1 -89.9 18.1 -9.2 172.5 20004 1124.2 883.9 358.5 -90.6 18.3 -9.2 171.9 20011 1140.1 895.2 363.9 -91.3 18.5 -9.2 172.7 20012 1156.3 906.8 369.4 -91.9 18.8 -9.2 173.5 20013 1172.8 918.7 374.9 -92.6 19.0 -9.2 174.3 20014 1189.8 930.8 380.7 -93.3 19.2 -9.2 175.0 20021 1207.0 943.2 386.5 -94.0 19.5 -9.2 175.6 20022 1224.7 955.7 392.6 -94.7 19.7 -9.2 176.2 20023 1242.7 968.5 398.8 -95.4 19.9 -9.2 176.8 20024 1261.1 981.5 405.1 -96.1 20.2 -9.2 177.3 20031 1279.8 994.7 411.6 -96.8 20.4 -9.2 177.7 20032 1298.8 1008.1 418.2 -97.5 20.7 -9.2 178.2 20033 1318.2 1021.7 424.9 -98.3 20.9 -9.2 178.7 20034 1337.9 1035.5 431.8 -99.0 21.2 -9.2 179.3
RECS Total Receipts TPS Personal Tax TCS Corporate Tax IBTS Indirect Business Tax SIS Social Insurance Contributions TRGS Grants in Aid from Federal Government EXPS Total Current Expenditures PUS-ISZ Consumption Expenditures TRSH Transfer Payments to Persons INTS Net Interest Paid DRS Dividends Received SUBS Subsidies less Current Surplus SSP NIPA Surplus(+) or Deficit(-)
Table F4 Forecasts of Savings Flows
Table F4
US Model Forecasts of Savings Flows
Savings by Sector
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Quar. SH SF SB SR SG SS
19951 126.9 -43.1 41.3 110.7 -213.3 -22.5 19952 98.5 -22.6 40.1 118.1 -204.7 -29.5 19953 78.4 -10.4 49.8 100.1 -204.4 -13.4 19954 43.7 2.6 32.0 73.6 -123.9 -27.9 19961 118.1 -14.4 39.4 97.8 -229.2 -11.8 19962 41.9 -26.2 30.4 114.9 -148.1 -12.9 19963 62.2 -86.9 18.8 146.1 -125.6 -14.5 19964 62.5 -54.3 19.1 117.8 -105.1 -40.0 19971 26.3 -101.4 41.2 130.9 -63.1 -33.9 19972 79.9 -124.9 36.6 123.9 -53.1 -62.4 19973 35.4 -115.9 28.1 140.9 -29.9 -58.7 19974 -21.1 -139.2 22.3 167.8 -24.8 -5.0 19981 -85.7 -164.8 21.1 175.5 51.3 2.5 19982 -114.2 -169.0 24.5 214.8 50.2 -6.3 19983 -153.0 -207.8 52.9 231.8 63.8 12.2 19984 -179.6 -208.8 49.6 243.7 59.9 35.2 19991 -202.2 -214.9 49.8 250.3 79.4 37.5 19992 -203.1 -224.3 50.1 256.8 80.6 40.0 19993 -207.0 -227.3 50.4 262.4 80.3 41.3 19994 -217.6 -221.9 50.7 267.1 79.9 41.8 20001 -226.0 -213.5 51.0 266.3 80.1 42.2 20002 -230.8 -207.6 51.3 265.0 79.7 42.5 20003 -236.3 -201.4 51.6 263.3 80.2 42.6 20004 -245.5 -194.0 51.9 261.2 83.3 43.2 20011 -248.0 -187.9 52.2 259.1 79.3 45.2 20012 -249.9 -182.1 52.6 257.1 75.1 47.2 20013 -252.2 -176.1 53.0 255.2 71.0 49.1 20014 -255.1 -169.6 53.4 253.5 66.8 51.0 20021 -258.4 -162.2 53.8 251.9 62.2 52.9 20022 -262.2 -154.1 54.2 250.4 57.0 54.7 20023 -266.6 -145.1 54.6 249.2 51.5 56.5 20024 -272.0 -135.1 55.0 248.1 45.8 58.2 20031 -277.8 -124.6 55.4 247.1 39.9 60.0 20032 -284.0 -113.6 55.9 246.4 33.7 61.7 20033 -290.7 -102.4 56.3 245.9 27.4 63.5 20034 -297.8 -91.0 56.7 245.5 21.2 65.4 SH Saving, Households SF Saving, Firms SB Saving, Financial SR Saving, Foreign SG Saving, Federal SS Saving, State and Local
NIPA Table 1.1
NIPA Table 1.1
US Model Forecasts Gross Domestic Product
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Table 1.1 Quar. 1 2 3 4 5
19951 7170.9 4862.5 598.4 1459.6 2804.5 19952 7210.9 4931.4 606.0 1470.7 2854.7 19953 7304.8 4986.4 616.9 1476.8 2892.7 19954 7391.9 5035.3 622.8 1487.5 2925.0 19961 7495.3 5108.1 632.3 1506.8 2969.0 19962 7629.2 5198.9 647.3 1537.9 3013.7 19963 7703.4 5242.4 642.5 1543.6 3056.3 19964 7818.4 5313.3 651.1 1568.3 3093.9 19971 7954.9 5402.5 668.9 1589.7 3143.9 19972 8063.4 5438.8 659.9 1588.2 3190.7 19973 8170.9 5540.4 681.2 1611.3 3247.9 19974 8254.5 5593.2 682.2 1613.2 3297.8 19981 8384.1 5676.4 705.1 1633.1 3338.2 19982 8440.4 5773.7 720.1 1655.2 3398.4 19983 8537.8 5846.6 718.9 1670.0 3457.7 19984 8672.9 5927.1 749.8 1689.5 3487.8 19991 8769.3 5990.2 757.5 1706.4 3526.3 19992 8856.5 6054.2 766.4 1722.8 3564.9 19993 8933.1 6119.6 776.2 1739.2 3604.1 19994 9004.8 6188.6 787.3 1756.1 3645.2 20001 9083.6 6257.7 799.0 1772.8 3685.9 20002 9166.5 6326.0 810.6 1789.0 3726.5 20003 9253.0 6395.3 822.4 1805.2 3767.7 20004 9346.6 6468.6 835.0 1822.2 3811.4 20011 9444.4 6542.3 847.5 1839.1 3855.7 20012 9544.6 6616.8 860.1 1856.0 3900.7 20013 9646.4 6692.2 872.8 1872.9 3946.4 20014 9749.4 6768.6 885.7 1890.0 3992.9 20021 9853.3 6846.2 898.9 1907.4 4040.0 20022 9958.2 6925.1 912.3 1925.0 4087.8 20023 10064.2 7005.1 925.9 1942.8 4136.4 20024 10171.3 7086.4 939.8 1960.9 4185.6 20031 10279.6 7168.8 954.0 1979.2 4235.5 20032 10389.1 7252.5 968.5 1997.8 4286.2 20033 10500.1 7337.5 983.3 2016.6 4337.6 20034 10612.6 7423.9 998.4 2035.6 4389.8
Quar. 6 7 8 11 12
19951 1059.0 1000.0 713.6 286.4 59.0 19952 1029.6 1004.3 728.1 276.2 25.3 19953 1030.6 1013.5 729.5 284.0 17.1 19954 1053.6 1032.1 739.5 292.6 21.5 19961 1075.4 1059.1 759.0 300.1 16.3 19962 1118.3 1089.8 774.8 315.0 28.5 19963 1167.9 1118.1 801.1 317.0 49.8 19964 1165.9 1132.1 816.8 315.3 33.8 19971 1206.3 1146.6 827.1 319.5 59.7 19972 1259.9 1176.4 850.5 325.9 83.5 19973 1265.7 1211.1 882.3 328.8 54.6 19974 1292.1 1220.2 882.8 337.4 71.9 19981 1366.6 1271.1 921.3 349.8 95.5 19982 1344.9 1305.7 941.9 363.8 39.2 19983 1364.4 1307.4 931.6 375.8 57.0 19984 1401.0 1351.0 962.9 388.1 50.0 19991 1427.7 1369.9 979.8 390.0 57.9 19992 1443.8 1384.0 994.6 389.3 59.9 19993 1446.6 1392.2 1007.6 384.5 54.5 19994 1439.8 1395.4 1017.0 378.4 44.4 20001 1434.2 1397.3 1024.5 372.8 36.8 20002 1432.7 1399.5 1031.1 368.4 33.2 20003 1433.1 1401.9 1037.1 364.9 31.1 20004 1435.7 1405.5 1043.1 362.4 30.2 20011 1441.7 1410.4 1049.2 361.2 31.2 20012 1449.1 1416.4 1055.3 361.1 32.8 20013 1457.1 1423.0 1061.0 361.9 34.1 20014 1464.9 1429.8 1066.4 363.4 35.1 20021 1472.3 1436.7 1071.3 365.4 35.6 20022 1479.4 1443.6 1075.7 367.9 35.8 20023 1486.2 1450.4 1079.6 370.8 35.8 20024 1492.7 1457.0 1083.0 374.0 35.7 20031 1499.2 1463.6 1086.0 377.5 35.6 20032 1505.5 1470.1 1088.8 381.3 35.5 20033 1512.0 1476.6 1091.3 385.3 35.4 20034 1518.5 1483.1 1093.6 389.5 35.4
Quar. 13 14 17 20 21 24
19951 -94.7 787.8 882.5 1344.1 512.3 831.8 19952 -108.0 803.4 911.4 1357.9 511.7 846.2 19953 -74.5 835.1 909.6 1362.3 511.2 851.1 19954 -58.4 851.5 909.9 1361.4 501.2 860.2 19961 -75.7 856.6 932.3 1387.5 517.1 870.4 19962 -94.0 863.0 957.0 1406.0 523.1 882.9 19963 -115.5 861.4 976.9 1408.6 519.0 889.6 19964 -79.6 914.2 993.8 1418.8 514.6 904.2 19971 -93.3 930.2 1023.5 1439.4 517.0 922.4 19972 -86.8 961.1 1047.9 1451.5 522.9 928.6 19973 -94.7 981.7 1076.4 1459.5 521.0 938.5 19974 -98.8 988.6 1087.4 1468.0 520.1 947.9 19981 -123.8 973.3 1097.1 1464.9 511.6 953.3 19982 -159.3 949.6 1108.9 1481.1 520.7 960.4 19983 -165.5 936.2 1101.7 1492.3 519.4 972.9 19984 -167.8 975.1 1142.9 1512.6 531.0 981.6 19991 -174.2 985.6 1159.8 1525.5 534.5 991.0 19992 -180.4 996.4 1176.8 1538.9 538.1 1000.8 19993 -185.7 1007.5 1193.2 1552.6 541.9 1010.7 19994 -190.2 1018.7 1208.8 1566.5 545.7 1020.9 20001 -189.1 1035.0 1224.1 1580.8 549.6 1031.2 20002 -187.6 1051.7 1239.3 1595.4 553.5 1041.8 20003 -185.6 1068.8 1254.4 1610.3 557.6 1052.7 20004 -183.2 1086.4 1269.6 1625.5 561.8 1063.8 20011 -180.8 1104.3 1285.2 1641.2 566.1 1075.1 20012 -178.6 1122.7 1301.3 1657.2 570.5 1086.7 20013 -176.4 1141.6 1318.0 1673.5 574.9 1098.6 20014 -174.4 1160.9 1335.2 1690.2 579.5 1110.7 20021 -172.5 1180.6 1353.1 1707.2 584.2 1123.1 20022 -170.7 1200.7 1371.5 1724.5 588.9 1135.6 20023 -169.2 1221.3 1390.5 1742.1 593.7 1148.4 20024 -167.8 1242.3 1410.0 1760.0 598.6 1161.4 20031 -166.5 1263.7 1430.2 1778.1 603.6 1174.6 20032 -165.5 1285.5 1451.0 1796.6 608.6 1188.0 20033 -164.6 1307.8 1472.4 1815.2 613.7 1201.6 20034 -164.0 1330.5 1494.5 1834.2 618.8 1215.4
Line 1 Gross Domestic Product Line 2 Personal Consumption Expenditures Line 3 Durable Goods Line 4 Nondurable Goods Line 5 Services Line 6 Gross Private Domestic Investment Line 7 Fixed Investment Line 8 Nonresidential Line 11 Residential Line 12 Change in Business Inventories Line 13 Net Exports of Goods and Services Line 14 Exports Line 17 Imports Line 20 Government Consumption Expenditures and Gross Investment Line 21 Federal Line 22 State and Local
NIPA Table 1.2
NIPA Table 1.2
US Model Forecasts Gross Domestic Product
Billions of 1992 Dollars
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Table 1.2 Quar. 1 2 3 4 5
19951 6717.5 4556.0 575.2 1410.4 2570.4 19952 6724.2 4594.2 583.5 1415.9 2594.8 19953 6779.5 4624.1 595.3 1418.5 2610.3 19954 6825.8 4650.9 602.4 1425.6 2622.9 19961 6882.0 4693.0 611.0 1433.5 2648.5 19962 6983.9 4748.3 629.5 1450.4 2668.4 19963 7020.0 4769.3 626.5 1454.7 2688.1 19964 7093.1 4804.3 637.5 1465.1 2701.7 19971 7166.7 4856.3 656.3 1477.9 2722.1 19972 7236.5 4874.5 653.8 1477.1 2743.6 19973 7311.2 4950.7 679.6 1495.7 2775.4 19974 7364.6 4983.9 684.8 1494.3 2804.8 19981 7464.7 5060.8 710.3 1521.2 2829.3 19982 7498.6 5137.1 729.4 1540.9 2866.8 19983 7566.5 5187.6 733.7 1549.1 2904.8 19984 7670.0 5248.3 770.1 1561.4 2916.8 19991 7728.2 5287.6 775.6 1572.1 2939.9 19992 7775.9 5326.7 782.2 1582.1 2962.4 19993 7812.5 5366.5 789.6 1591.9 2985.0 19994 7843.5 5409.0 798.1 1601.9 3009.0 20001 7880.1 5450.7 807.2 1611.5 3032.0 20002 7919.3 5491.0 816.0 1620.5 3054.5 20003 7960.2 5531.1 824.9 1629.2 3077.0 20004 8005.7 5573.7 834.4 1638.4 3101.0 20011 8053.2 5615.7 843.6 1647.2 3124.9 20012 8101.0 5657.3 852.7 1655.7 3148.9 20013 8148.6 5698.8 861.8 1664.1 3172.9 20014 8195.4 5740.2 871.0 1672.3 3196.9 20021 8241.6 5781.9 880.2 1680.6 3221.1 20022 8287.1 5823.9 889.5 1688.9 3245.4 20023 8332.2 5866.1 899.0 1697.3 3269.9 20024 8377.0 5908.7 908.5 1705.7 3294.5 20031 8421.5 5951.7 918.2 1714.1 3319.3 20032 8465.9 5995.1 928.1 1722.6 3344.3 20033 8510.3 6038.9 938.1 1731.2 3369.6 20034 8555.0 6083.2 948.3 1739.8 3395.0
Quar. 6 7 8 11 12
19951 1012.6 958.3 698.4 259.9 54.3 19952 981.4 959.7 710.2 249.5 21.7 19953 982.0 967.3 711.7 255.6 14.7 19954 1004.5 984.4 722.3 262.1 20.1 19961 1027.2 1012.8 744.8 268.0 14.4 19962 1070.7 1044.6 764.4 280.2 26.1 19963 1116.6 1069.1 790.1 279.0 47.5 19964 1115.4 1083.3 807.0 276.3 32.1 19971 1155.6 1099.3 820.9 278.4 56.3 19972 1209.7 1130.7 848.2 282.5 79.0 19973 1215.5 1164.5 882.2 282.3 51.0 19974 1240.6 1174.1 886.2 287.9 66.5 19981 1321.8 1230.4 931.9 298.5 91.4 19982 1307.7 1269.5 960.4 309.1 38.2 19983 1330.9 1275.2 958.7 316.5 55.7 19984 1369.6 1320.7 996.5 324.2 48.9 19991 1392.1 1335.7 1010.9 324.8 56.4 19992 1404.2 1346.0 1022.8 323.2 58.2 19993 1403.6 1350.9 1032.8 318.1 52.8 19994 1393.7 1350.9 1038.8 312.0 42.9 20001 1384.7 1349.3 1042.9 306.3 35.4 20002 1379.3 1347.5 1045.9 301.6 31.8 20003 1375.5 1345.8 1048.1 297.7 29.7 20004 1373.5 1344.7 1050.2 294.5 28.7 20011 1374.4 1344.7 1052.3 292.4 29.6 20012 1376.3 1345.4 1054.2 291.2 30.9 20013 1378.4 1346.3 1055.6 290.6 32.1 20014 1380.1 1347.2 1056.6 290.6 32.8 20021 1381.2 1348.0 1057.0 291.0 33.2 20022 1381.8 1348.6 1056.8 291.8 33.2 20023 1382.0 1348.9 1056.1 292.8 33.1 20024 1381.8 1349.0 1054.9 294.1 32.9 20031 1381.4 1348.8 1053.2 295.5 32.6 20032 1380.8 1348.5 1051.3 297.2 32.4 20033 1380.2 1348.0 1049.0 299.0 32.2 20034 1379.6 1347.6 1046.7 300.9 32.0
Quar. 13 14 17 20
19951 -109.5 763.9 873.4 1256.2 19952 -114.7 774.0 888.7 1259.9 19953 -86.8 806.3 893.1 1257.6 19954 -74.8 826.1 900.9 1244.6 19961 -95.5 833.6 929.1 1254.5 19962 -113.4 845.5 958.9 1276.2 19963 -140.1 849.9 990.0 1271.2 19964 -95.9 911.1 1007.0 1271.3 19971 -121.5 929.4 1050.9 1277.8 19972 -131.6 963.6 1095.2 1284.6 19973 -142.4 988.1 1130.5 1289.0 19974 -149.0 998.8 1147.8 1289.4 19981 -198.5 991.9 1190.4 1283.2 19982 -245.2 972.1 1217.3 1295.0 19983 -259.0 965.3 1224.3 1299.8 19984 -262.9 1007.7 1270.6 1312.9 19991 -271.0 1015.2 1286.2 1317.5 19992 -279.1 1022.7 1301.8 1322.1 19993 -286.4 1030.3 1316.7 1326.7 19994 -292.7 1037.9 1330.6 1331.3 20001 -293.4 1050.7 1344.0 1336.0 20002 -293.8 1063.6 1357.4 1340.7 20003 -293.9 1076.6 1370.5 1345.4 20004 -293.8 1089.8 1383.6 1350.2 20011 -293.9 1103.2 1397.1 1355.0 20012 -294.4 1116.7 1411.2 1359.8 20013 -295.3 1130.4 1425.7 1364.6 20014 -296.5 1144.3 1440.8 1369.5 20021 -298.0 1158.4 1456.4 1374.4 20022 -299.9 1172.6 1472.5 1379.3 20023 -302.2 1187.0 1489.2 1384.2 20024 -304.9 1201.5 1506.4 1389.2 20031 -307.9 1216.3 1524.2 1394.2 20032 -311.3 1231.2 1542.5 1399.2 20033 -315.1 1246.3 1561.4 1404.3 20034 -319.3 1261.6 1580.9 1409.4
Line 1 Gross Domestic Product Line 2 Personal Consumption Expenditures Line 3 Durable Goods Line 4 Nondurable Goods Line 5 Services Line 6 Gross Private Domestic Investment Line 7 Fixed Investment Line 8 Nonresidential Line 11 Residential Line 12 Change in Business Inventories Line 13 Net Exports of Goods and Services Line 14 Exports Line 17 Imports Line 20 Government Consumption Expenditures and Gross Investment
NIPA Table 3.2
NIPA Table 3.2
US Model Forecasts Fed. Gov. Receipts and Expenditures
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Table 3.2 Quar. 1 2 6 9 13
19951 1426.1 582.9 172.5 96.0 574.7 19952 1459.3 609.4 176.6 94.6 578.7 19953 1469.1 608.2 186.2 89.2 585.5 19954 1486.8 623.9 182.1 90.3 590.5 19961 1529.9 652.6 191.2 89.9 596.2 19962 1581.8 691.4 195.2 88.5 606.7 19963 1593.6 693.8 194.3 90.5 615.0 19964 1633.5 710.0 191.4 109.2 622.9 19971 1671.1 741.7 203.9 90.7 634.8 19972 1703.5 759.1 206.5 95.5 642.4 19973 1739.6 776.9 217.0 95.1 650.6 19974 1765.5 798.6 212.8 93.8 660.3 19981 1809.1 836.5 204.8 93.9 673.9 19982 1838.3 855.7 206.2 95.2 681.2 19983 1858.8 863.8 207.5 98.3 689.2 19984 1885.4 875.4 215.1 97.2 697.7 19991 1907.1 880.8 222.9 98.2 705.1 19992 1926.7 892.0 223.2 99.3 712.2 19993 1942.8 901.6 222.2 100.4 718.7 19994 1957.0 909.9 220.9 101.5 724.7 20001 1973.2 918.8 220.8 102.6 731.0 20002 1990.7 928.6 220.9 103.7 737.5 20003 2009.2 938.7 221.4 104.9 744.2 20004 2029.5 949.2 222.8 106.1 751.4 20011 2051.0 960.2 224.6 107.3 758.9 20012 2073.4 971.8 226.4 108.5 766.6 20013 2096.3 983.7 228.3 109.7 774.5 20014 2119.5 995.7 230.3 111.0 782.5 20021 2143.2 1008.0 232.3 112.3 790.6 20022 2167.4 1020.6 234.4 113.6 798.8 20023 2192.0 1033.3 236.8 114.9 807.1 20024 2217.1 1046.0 239.4 116.2 815.5 20031 2242.6 1059.0 242.2 117.6 823.9 20032 2268.7 1072.1 245.2 118.9 832.4 20033 2295.2 1085.4 248.5 120.3 841.1 20034 2322.3 1098.9 251.9 121.7 849.8
Quar . 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 25 29
19951 1615.8 443.0 707.7 695.8 11.9 212.4 218.3 34.4 -189.7 19952 1637.1 444.7 717.1 706.3 10.8 216.4 224.3 34.6 -177.8 19953 1646.0 447.2 724.8 713.6 11.2 211.0 227.8 35.2 -176.9 19954 1639.8 436.5 731.4 719.8 11.6 208.1 228.7 35.1 -153.0 19961 1679.9 445.7 757.8 738.8 19.0 214.3 227.7 34.4 -150.0 19962 1694.4 453.1 757.9 746.9 11.0 223.8 226.1 33.5 -112.6 19963 1693.8 452.9 762.5 750.7 11.8 219.0 228.6 30.8 -100.2 19964 1711.9 451.8 778.6 755.8 22.8 218.4 231.1 32.0 -78.4 19971 1722.3 456.8 783.4 773.9 9.5 220.7 229.4 32.0 -51.2 19972 1738.4 464.8 787.2 777.3 9.9 223.2 231.6 31.6 -34.9 19973 1739.9 460.0 791.1 781.2 9.9 224.4 231.9 32.5 -0.3 19974 1763.3 460.1 805.9 784.4 21.5 231.8 231.8 33.7 2.2 19981 1750.3 450.9 808.5 798.6 9.9 228.7 228.8 33.4 58.8 19982 1763.8 464.0 811.1 802.1 9.0 226.9 228.3 33.5 74.5 19983 1766.8 458.7 817.0 805.8 11.2 231.4 225.7 34.0 92.0 19984 1798.0 471.0 829.3 808.7 20.6 237.9 223.5 36.3 87.4 19991 1800.2 474.5 839.2 818.6 20.6 241.3 208.8 36.3 106.9 19992 1818.6 478.1 849.3 828.7 20.6 244.7 210.2 36.3 108.1 19993 1835.0 481.9 859.4 838.8 20.6 248.2 209.2 36.3 107.8 19994 1849.6 485.7 869.7 849.1 20.6 251.7 206.2 36.3 107.4 20001 1865.6 489.6 880.2 859.6 20.6 255.3 204.3 36.3 107.6 20002 1883.6 493.5 890.7 870.1 20.6 258.9 204.1 36.3 107.2 20003 1901.5 497.6 901.4 880.8 20.6 262.6 203.6 36.3 107.7 20004 1918.7 501.8 912.2 891.6 20.6 266.3 202.1 36.3 110.8 20011 1944.1 506.1 929.5 908.9 20.6 271.5 200.8 36.3 106.9 20012 1970.7 510.5 947.2 926.6 20.6 276.7 200.1 36.3 102.6 20013 1997.8 514.9 965.2 944.6 20.6 282.1 199.3 36.3 98.5 20014 2025.2 519.5 983.5 962.9 20.6 287.6 198.2 36.3 94.4 20021 2053.5 524.2 1002.2 981.6 20.6 293.2 197.7 36.3 89.7 20022 2082.9 528.9 1021.3 1000.7 20.6 298.9 197.5 36.3 84.5 20023 2113.0 533.7 1040.7 1020.1 20.6 304.7 197.6 36.3 79.0 20024 2143.8 538.6 1060.6 1040.0 20.6 310.6 197.7 36.3 73.3 20031 2175.2 543.6 1080.8 1060.2 20.6 316.6 198.0 36.3 67.4 20032 2207.5 548.6 1101.4 1080.8 20.6 322.8 198.4 36.3 61.2 20033 2240.3 553.7 1122.3 1101.7 20.6 329.1 198.9 36.3 54.9 20034 2273.6 558.8 1143.7 1123.1 20.6 335.5 199.2 36.3 48.7
Line 1 Receipts Line 2 Personal Tax and Nontax Receipts Line 6 Corporate Profit Tax Accruals Line 9 Indirect Business Tax and Nontax Accruals Line 13 Contributions for Social Insurance Line 14 Current Expenditures Line 15 Consumption Expenditures Line 16 Transfer Payments (net) Line 17 To Persons Line 18 To Rest of the World (net) Line 19 Grants-in-Aid to State and Local Governments Line 20 Net Interest Paid Line 25 Subsidies less Current Surplus of Government Enterprises Line 29 NIPA Surplus(+) or Deficit(-)
NIPA Table 3.3
NIPA Table 3.3
US Model Forecasts S&L Gov. Receipts and Expenditures
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Table 3.3 Quar. 1 2 6 7 11 12
19951 985.9 184.2 30.4 483.1 75.8 212.4 19952 996.1 186.3 31.0 486.0 76.4 216.4 19953 1001.9 190.8 32.9 490.4 76.8 211.0 19954 1007.1 194.4 32.2 495.3 77.1 208.1 19961 1025.3 197.1 32.7 504.0 77.2 214.3 19962 1048.0 201.9 33.4 511.3 77.6 223.8 19963 1049.2 205.6 33.3 513.3 78.0 219.0 19964 1058.4 209.7 32.8 519.1 78.4 218.4 19971 1075.2 213.9 34.9 526.5 79.2 220.7 19972 1084.5 216.7 35.4 529.5 79.7 223.2 19973 1100.9 222.1 37.3 536.9 80.2 224.4 19974 1116.5 226.9 36.5 540.7 80.6 231.8 19981 1123.3 230.4 35.1 548.0 81.1 228.7 19982 1133.7 237.2 35.4 552.5 81.7 226.9 19983 1152.3 244.6 35.7 558.2 82.4 231.4 19984 1186.0 248.9 37.0 579.0 83.2 237.9 19991 1199.2 250.5 38.4 585.2 83.9 241.3 19992 1212.9 253.7 38.4 591.4 84.7 244.7 19993 1226.1 256.5 38.2 597.8 85.5 248.2 19994 1239.3 258.9 38.0 604.5 86.2 251.7 20001 1253.0 261.4 38.0 611.3 87.0 255.3 20002 1266.9 264.3 38.0 618.0 87.8 258.9 20003 1281.2 267.2 38.1 624.7 88.6 262.6 20004 1296.1 270.2 38.3 631.9 89.4 266.3 20011 1312.8 273.4 38.6 639.1 90.2 271.5 20012 1329.8 276.7 39.0 646.4 91.0 276.7 20013 1347.2 280.2 39.3 653.7 91.8 282.1 20014 1364.8 283.7 39.6 661.2 92.7 287.6 20021 1382.7 287.2 40.0 668.8 93.5 293.2 20022 1400.9 290.9 40.3 676.5 94.3 298.9 20023 1419.5 294.5 40.7 684.3 95.2 304.7 20024 1438.4 298.2 41.2 692.2 96.1 310.6 20031 1457.5 302.0 41.7 700.3 96.9 316.6 20032 1477.1 305.8 42.2 708.5 97.8 322.8 20033 1497.0 309.6 42.7 716.8 98.7 329.1 20034 1517.2 313.6 43.3 725.2 99.6 335.5
Quar. 13 14 15 16 19 20 23 24
19951 875.4 684.8 275.2 -62.7 12.1 -9.8 0.0 110.5 19952 883.3 693.5 279.2 -67.4 12.3 -9.7 0.0 112.8 19953 889.0 698.4 283.4 -70.5 12.6 -9.7 0.0 112.9 19954 896.3 704.2 286.9 -72.1 12.8 -9.9 0.0 110.8 19961 908.1 712.6 289.6 -70.5 13.2 -10.4 0.0 117.2 19962 918.9 721.6 292.3 -70.7 13.6 -10.7 0.0 129.1 19963 926.8 727.8 294.9 -71.4 13.7 -10.8 0.0 122.4 19964 936.6 736.7 297.3 -72.5 14.0 -10.9 0.0 121.8 19971 946.8 747.2 299.7 -75.0 14.4 -10.7 0.0 128.4 19972 954.4 754.0 302.5 -76.7 14.8 -10.6 0.0 130.1 19973 964.3 762.2 305.5 -78.2 14.7 -10.5 0.0 136.6 19974 975.2 771.5 308.6 -79.5 15.1 -10.3 0.0 141.3 19981 983.0 776.7 312.6 -80.7 15.7 -9.9 0.0 140.3 19982 992.5 784.7 315.6 -82.2 16.0 -9.6 0.0 141.2 19983 1003.6 793.9 318.8 -83.7 16.0 -9.4 0.0 148.7 19984 1013.4 801.7 322.9 -85.4 16.6 -9.2 0.0 172.6 19991 1025.3 811.1 326.2 -86.0 16.8 -9.2 0.0 173.9 19992 1037.6 820.9 329.6 -86.7 17.0 -9.2 0.0 175.3 19993 1050.6 830.8 333.5 -87.3 17.2 -9.2 0.0 175.5 19994 1064.4 841.0 338.0 -88.0 17.4 -9.2 0.0 175.0 20001 1078.7 851.3 342.8 -88.6 17.6 -9.2 0.0 174.3 20002 1093.5 861.9 347.9 -89.3 17.9 -9.2 0.0 173.4 20003 1108.7 872.8 353.1 -89.9 18.1 -9.2 0.0 172.5 20004 1124.2 883.9 358.5 -90.6 18.3 -9.2 0.0 171.9 20011 1140.1 895.2 363.9 -91.3 18.5 -9.2 0.0 172.7 20012 1156.3 906.8 369.4 -91.9 18.8 -9.2 0.0 173.5 20013 1172.8 918.7 374.9 -92.6 19.0 -9.2 0.0 174.3 20014 1189.8 930.8 380.7 -93.3 19.2 -9.2 0.0 175.0 20021 1207.0 943.2 386.5 -94.0 19.5 -9.2 0.0 175.6 20022 1224.7 955.7 392.6 -94.7 19.7 -9.2 0.0 176.2 20023 1242.7 968.5 398.8 -95.4 19.9 -9.2 0.0 176.8 20024 1261.1 981.5 405.1 -96.1 20.2 -9.2 0.0 177.3 20031 1279.8 994.7 411.6 -96.8 20.4 -9.2 0.0 177.7 20032 1298.8 1008.1 418.2 -97.5 20.7 -9.2 0.0 178.2 20033 1318.2 1021.7 424.9 -98.3 20.9 -9.2 0.0 178.7 20034 1337.9 1035.5 431.8 -99.0 21.2 -9.2 0.0 179.3
Line 1 Receipts Line 2 Personal Tax and Nontax Receipts Line 6 Corporate Profit Tax Accruals Line 7 Indirect Business Tax and Nontax Accruals Line 11 Contributions for Social Insurance Line 12 Federal Grants-in-Aid Line 13 Current Expenditures Line 14 Consumption Expenditures Line 15 Transfer Payments to Persons Line 16 Net Interest Paid Line 19 Less: Dividends Received by Government Line 20 Subsidies less Current Surplus of Government Enterprises Line 23 Less: Wage Accruals Less Disbursements Line 24 NIPA Surplus(+) or Deficit(-)
NIPA Table 7.1
NIPA Table 7.1
US Model Forecasts of Price Indexes for GDP
Index numbers, 1992=100
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Table 7.1 Quar. 4 8 12 16 20
19951 106.7 106.7 104.0 103.5 109.1 19952 107.2 107.3 103.9 103.9 110.0 19953 107.7 107.8 103.6 104.1 110.8 19954 108.3 108.3 103.4 104.3 111.5 19961 108.9 108.8 103.5 105.1 112.1 19962 109.2 109.5 102.8 106.0 112.9 19963 109.7 109.9 102.6 106.1 113.7 19964 110.2 110.6 102.1 107.0 114.5 19971 111.0 111.2 101.9 107.6 115.5 19972 111.4 111.6 100.9 107.5 116.3 19973 111.8 111.9 100.2 107.7 117.0 19974 112.1 112.2 99.6 108.0 117.6 19981 112.3 112.2 99.3 107.4 118.0 19982 112.6 112.4 98.7 107.4 118.5 19983 112.8 112.7 98.0 107.8 119.0 19984 113.1 112.9 97.4 108.2 119.6 19991 113.5 113.3 97.7 108.5 119.9 19992 113.9 113.7 98.0 108.9 120.3 19993 114.3 114.0 98.3 109.3 120.7 19994 114.8 114.4 98.6 109.6 121.1 20001 115.3 114.8 99.0 110.0 121.6 20002 115.7 115.2 99.3 110.4 122.0 20003 116.2 115.6 99.7 110.8 122.4 20004 116.7 116.1 100.1 111.2 122.9 20011 117.3 116.5 100.5 111.7 123.4 20012 117.8 117.0 100.9 112.1 123.9 20013 118.4 117.4 101.3 112.6 124.4 20014 119.0 117.9 101.7 113.0 124.9 20021 119.6 118.4 102.1 113.5 125.4 20022 120.2 118.9 102.6 114.0 126.0 20023 120.8 119.4 103.0 114.5 126.5 20024 121.4 119.9 103.4 115.0 127.0 20031 122.1 120.4 103.9 115.5 127.6 20032 122.7 121.0 104.4 116.0 128.2 20033 123.4 121.5 104.8 116.5 128.7 20034 124.1 122.0 105.3 117.0 129.3
Quar. 28 32 44 48 60 72
19951 104.4 102.2 110.2 103.1 101.0 107.0 19952 104.6 102.5 110.7 103.8 102.6 107.8 19953 104.8 102.5 111.1 103.6 101.8 108.3 19954 104.8 102.4 111.6 103.1 101.0 109.4 19961 104.6 101.9 112.0 102.8 100.3 110.6 19962 104.3 101.4 112.4 102.1 99.8 110.2 19963 104.6 101.4 113.6 101.4 98.7 110.8 19964 104.5 101.2 114.1 100.3 98.7 111.6 19971 104.3 100.8 114.8 100.1 97.4 112.6 19972 104.0 100.3 115.4 99.7 95.7 113.0 19973 104.0 100.0 116.5 99.4 95.2 113.2 19974 103.9 99.6 117.2 99.0 94.7 113.9 19981 103.3 98.9 117.2 98.1 92.2 114.2 19982 102.9 98.1 117.7 97.7 91.1 114.4 19983 102.5 97.2 118.7 97.0 90.0 114.8 19984 102.3 96.6 119.7 96.8 89.9 115.2 19991 102.6 96.9 120.1 97.1 90.2 115.8 19992 102.8 97.2 120.5 97.4 90.4 116.4 19993 103.1 97.6 120.9 97.8 90.6 117.0 19994 103.3 97.9 121.3 98.1 90.8 117.7 20001 103.6 98.2 121.7 98.5 91.1 118.3 20002 103.9 98.6 122.1 98.9 91.3 119.0 20003 104.2 98.9 122.6 99.3 91.5 119.7 20004 104.5 99.3 123.0 99.7 91.8 120.4 20011 104.9 99.7 123.5 100.1 92.0 121.1 20012 105.3 100.1 124.0 100.5 92.2 121.9 20013 105.7 100.5 124.5 101.0 92.4 122.6 20014 106.1 100.9 125.0 101.4 92.7 123.4 20021 106.6 101.4 125.6 101.9 92.9 124.2 20022 107.0 101.8 126.1 102.4 93.1 125.0 20023 107.5 102.2 126.6 102.9 93.4 125.9 20024 108.0 102.7 127.2 103.4 93.6 126.7 20031 108.5 103.1 127.7 103.9 93.8 127.5 20032 109.0 103.6 128.3 104.4 94.1 128.4 20033 109.5 104.0 128.9 104.9 94.3 129.3 20034 110.1 104.5 129.4 105.5 94.5 130.1
Line 4 Gross Domestic Product Line 8 Personal Consumption Expenditures Line 12 Durable Goods Line 16 Nondurable Goods Line 20 Services Line 28 Fixed Investment Line 32 Nonresidential Line 44 Residential Line 48 Exports of Goods and Services Line 60 Imports of Goods and Services Line 72 Government Consumption Expenditures and Gross Investment