US Forecast: May 1, 1999
Forecast Period

1999:2--2003:4 (19 quarters)

Data

The forecast is based on the national income and product accounts (NIPA) data that were released on April 30, 1999.

The Latest Version of the US Model

For purposes of this forecast the US model has been reestimated through 1999:1. These estimates are presented in the "Chapter 5 tables" at the end of The US Model Workbook. The rest of the specification of the model is in Appendix A at the end of this workbook.

A complete discussion of the November 3, 1998, version of the US model is in Macroeconometric Modeling, which is the main reference for this site. There are two specification changes for the latest version of the US model from the November 3, 1998, version. The first change, which also pertains to the January 30, 1999, version, is that the interest rate variable has been dropped from the fixed investment equation, equation 12. I have been unable to find significant cost of capital effects in the investment equation, and the (insignificant) interest rate variable that I had been using in this equation now has a coefficient estimate of the wrong sign. Alas. The second change, which pertains only to the latest version, is that the lagged value of the asset variable, AA/POP, has been added to the durable expenditures equation, equation 3. It now appears possible to pick up a wealth effect on durable expenditures. See Model Versions and References for more discussion of the model versions.

Assumptions Behind the Forecast

Included on this site is an analysis of three economic plans that I did on September 4, 1996: An Analysis of the Clinton and Dole Economic Plans. The three plans were the latest (at the time) Congressional plan, the Clinton plan, and the Dole plan. The budget agreement that was eventually worked out by the Democrats and Republicans was closest to the original Clinton plan, although the spending cuts were not as large as the originally planned cuts. The following table gives for the key government policy variables in the model 1) the growth rates used for the current forecast, 2) the growth rates I used in analyzing the original Clinton plan, and 3) the actual growth rates between 1993:3 and 1999:1.

                 Growth Rates (annual rates)

            Current         Clinton          Actual     
           Forecast           Plan       1999:1-1993.3  

TRGH          5.0/8.0         4.3             4.4       
COG           2.0            -4.8            -0.4       
JG           -1.0            -4.8            -1.3       
TRGS          5.8/8.0         5.8             4.6       
TRSH          6.0             6.0             6.7       
COS           3.0             1.0             4.3       
JS            1.0             1.0             1.6       

Notes: 5.0/8.0 means 5.0% through 2000.4 and 8.0% thereafter.
       5.8/8.0 means 5.8% through 2000.4 and 8.0% thereafter. 

All tax rates are assumed to remain unchanged for the current forecast. It may help you to review the analysis of the Congressional and Clinton plans on the site to put the current assumptions in perspective, although this material is now somewhat dated.

If you examine the federal government surplus variable (SGP), you can see that the current fiscal-policy assumptions result in a surplus of around $100 billion per year for the next three years and the slightly less that this per year for the remaining forecast period. The predicted value of SGP begins at $106.1 billion in 1999:2 and ends at $51.6 billion in 2003:4. This projected surplus is less than the current CBO projected surplus.

No assumption about monetary policy is needed for the forecast because monetary policy is endogenous (equation 30, the interest rate reaction function). As can be seen from the second page of Table F1, the model is predicting the bill rate to rise to 5.1 percent by the end of 1999 and to 5.6 percent by the end of 2000.

The Results

The current forecasts for real growth (at an annual rate) in the three remaining quarters of 1999 are 4.1, 3.0, and 2.2 percent, respectively. The growth rate is predicted to be about 2.6 percent for 2000. The unemployment rate remains low for the next few years. The inflation rate as measured by the growth of the GDP price index (GDPD) gradually rises to 2.0 percent by the end of 2000. The household savings rate (variable SRZ in the model) is forecast to be negative throughout the period. The U.S. current account deficit (variable -SR in the model) is large and growing.

You can examine the tables of this forecast memo for the details, or you can print out the forecast values from the base data set for the model. Although the model is used to forecast through 2003:4, you should not put much confidence on the results beyond about 2001. Forecast error bands are fairly large for predictions this far ahead.

Possible Experiments to Run

The present forecast is a good base from which to make alternative fiscal-policy assumptions, depending on what you think Congress might do in light of the fairly rosy budget picture.

As a historical footnote, the model has consistently been more optimistic about the size of future federal government deficits than have most others, especially regarding future tax revenues, and the recent data suggest that the model has been right. The CBO and others have now moved in the optimistic direction. You may want to compare the current CBO forecasts with those from the model. My sense is that the model has conveyed useful information in the past about the deficit that was not in the CBO forecasts at the time. As noted above, it is now the case that the model is less optimistic than is CBO regarding future federal budget values.

You may also want to drop the interest rate reaction function (equation 30) and put in your own assumptions about Fed behavior. For example, do you think the Fed will raise interest rates more than the model predicts it will in response to the strong 1998:4 and 1999:1 numbers and the booming stock market?

You may want to modify the price equation (equation 10) to have it predict higher price levels. At some point one would expect to see large price level increases in response to a falling unemployment rate. Unfortunately, there are not enough observations at low unemployment rates for the data to estimate this point precisely. It may be that there is not enough nonlinearity in equation 10 as it is estimated and thus that it is too optimistic about the future price path.

US Forecast Tables: May 1, 1999
Table F1: Forecasts of Selected Variables--Real GDP and Components
Table F1 (continued)--Prices and Wages
Table F1 (continued)--Money and Interest Rates
Table F1 (continued)--Employment and Labor Force
Table F1 (continued)--Other Endogenous
Table F1 (continued)--Selected Exogenous
Table F2: Forecasts of the Federal Government Budget
Table F3: Forecasts of the State and Local Government Budget
Table F4: Forecasts of Savings Flows
NIPA Table 1.1
NIPA Table 1.2
NIPA Table 3.2
NIPA Table 3.3
NIPA Table 7.1
Table F1: Forecasts of Selected Variables
Table F1
US Model Forecasts of Selected Variables
Real GDP and Components
Billions of 1992 Dollars

Quar. GDPR %Ch CS %Ch CN %Ch CD %Ch
19951 6717.5 1.7 2570.4 2.3 1410.4 2.3 575.2 -1.0 19952 6724.2 0.4 2594.8 3.9 1415.9 1.6 583.5 5.9 19953 6779.5 3.3 2610.3 2.4 1418.5 0.7 595.3 8.3 19954 6825.8 2.8 2622.9 1.9 1425.6 2.0 602.4 4.9 19961 6882.0 3.3 2648.5 4.0 1433.5 2.2 611.0 5.8 19962 6983.9 6.1 2668.4 3.0 1450.4 4.8 629.5 12.7 19963 7020.0 2.1 2688.1 3.0 1454.7 1.2 626.5 -1.9 19964 7093.1 4.2 2701.7 2.0 1465.1 2.9 637.5 7.2 19971 7166.7 4.2 2722.1 3.1 1477.9 3.5 656.3 12.3 19972 7236.5 4.0 2743.6 3.2 1477.1 -0.2 653.8 -1.5 19973 7311.2 4.2 2775.4 4.7 1495.7 5.1 679.6 16.7 19974 7364.6 3.0 2804.8 4.3 1494.3 -0.4 684.8 3.1 19981 7464.7 5.5 2829.3 3.5 1521.2 7.4 710.3 15.7 19982 7498.6 1.8 2866.8 5.4 1540.9 5.3 729.4 11.2 19983 7566.5 3.7 2904.8 5.4 1549.1 2.1 733.7 2.4 19984 7677.7 6.0 2917.2 1.7 1565.1 4.2 775.0 24.5 19991 7762.5 4.5 2949.7 4.5 1599.9 9.2 796.4 11.5 19992 7841.8 4.1 2979.9 4.2 1617.7 4.5 809.1 6.5 19993 7900.5 3.0 3009.9 4.1 1630.3 3.1 821.9 6.5 19994 7943.7 2.2 3040.9 4.2 1642.1 2.9 834.6 6.3 20001 7994.3 2.6 3070.7 4.0 1653.4 2.8 847.1 6.1 20002 8045.7 2.6 3099.5 3.8 1664.0 2.6 858.5 5.5 20003 8096.9 2.6 3128.0 3.7 1674.2 2.5 869.2 5.1 20004 8150.9 2.7 3157.6 3.8 1684.9 2.6 879.7 4.9 20011 8205.0 2.7 3186.7 3.7 1694.9 2.4 889.4 4.5 20012 8257.8 2.6 3215.5 3.7 1704.4 2.2 898.4 4.1 20013 8309.0 2.5 3243.8 3.6 1713.4 2.1 906.8 3.8 20014 8358.4 2.4 3271.9 3.5 1722.1 2.1 914.8 3.6 20021 8406.4 2.3 3299.7 3.4 1730.7 2.0 922.4 3.4 20022 8453.3 2.2 3327.4 3.4 1739.3 2.0 929.8 3.2 20023 8499.3 2.2 3354.9 3.4 1747.8 2.0 936.9 3.1 20024 8544.7 2.2 3382.4 3.3 1756.3 2.0 943.9 3.0 20031 8589.6 2.1 3409.7 3.3 1764.8 2.0 950.7 2.9 20032 8634.3 2.1 3437.1 3.2 1773.3 1.9 957.5 2.9 20033 8678.8 2.1 3464.5 3.2 1781.9 1.9 964.2 2.8 20034 8723.3 2.1 3491.9 3.2 1790.5 1.9 970.9 2.8
Quar. IHH %Ch IKF %Ch IVF IM %Ch
19951 226.0 -19.0 598.6 22.0 54.3 873.4 9.8 19952 217.0 -15.1 604.2 3.8 21.7 888.7 7.2 19953 222.3 10.1 608.9 3.1 14.7 893.1 2.0 19954 227.9 10.6 617.3 5.7 20.1 900.9 3.5 19961 235.0 12.9 640.8 16.1 14.4 929.1 13.1 19962 245.7 19.5 655.7 9.6 26.1 958.9 13.5 19963 244.6 -1.7 676.5 13.3 47.5 990.0 13.6 19964 242.2 -3.8 689.1 7.6 32.1 1007.0 7.0 19971 245.6 5.7 699.5 6.2 56.3 1050.9 18.6 19972 249.2 6.0 725.7 15.8 79.0 1095.2 18.0 19973 249.1 -0.3 757.7 18.9 51.0 1130.5 13.5 19974 254.0 8.2 761.0 1.7 66.5 1147.8 6.3 19981 263.4 15.7 804.7 25.0 91.4 1190.4 15.7 19982 272.8 15.1 831.6 14.0 38.2 1217.3 9.4 19983 279.4 10.0 828.9 -1.3 55.7 1224.3 2.3 19984 286.1 10.0 855.8 13.6 44.2 1259.6 12.0 19991 296.7 15.7 871.7 7.6 45.2 1295.0 11.7 19992 300.3 5.0 886.9 7.1 59.2 1315.9 6.6 19993 299.7 -0.8 901.0 6.5 62.5 1335.9 6.2 19994 296.4 -4.4 910.6 4.3 55.8 1354.5 5.7 20001 292.4 -5.3 918.4 3.5 47.7 1372.1 5.3 20002 288.5 -5.2 924.8 2.8 43.7 1389.0 5.0 20003 284.9 -5.0 929.6 2.1 41.1 1405.2 4.8 20004 281.5 -4.6 933.9 1.9 39.4 1420.8 4.5 20011 278.9 -3.6 937.6 1.6 39.2 1436.1 4.4 20012 277.0 -2.7 940.4 1.2 39.3 1451.3 4.3 20013 275.7 -1.9 942.1 0.7 39.2 1466.3 4.2 20014 274.8 -1.3 942.7 0.3 38.7 1481.2 4.1 20021 274.3 -0.6 942.2 -0.2 37.9 1496.0 4.1 20022 274.4 0.0 940.4 -0.7 37.0 1510.8 4.0 20023 274.8 0.6 937.6 -1.2 36.0 1525.6 4.0 20024 275.6 1.1 933.9 -1.6 35.1 1540.4 3.9 20031 276.7 1.6 929.2 -2.0 34.3 1555.2 3.9 20032 278.1 2.0 923.8 -2.3 33.6 1570.2 3.9 20033 279.7 2.4 917.7 -2.6 33.1 1585.2 3.9 20034 281.6 2.8 911.1 -2.9 32.7 1600.5 3.9
GDPR Real GDP CS Consumption - Services CN Consumption - Nondurables CD Consumption - Durables IHH Residential Investment IKF Nonresidential Investment IVF Inventory Investment IM Imports %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Prices and Wages - %Ch
                                                                         

Quar. GDPD PF WF WR
19951 2.5 2.5 2.0 -0.5 19952 1.8 2.2 6.7 4.4 19953 1.9 2.2 2.0 -0.2 19954 2.0 1.3 4.6 3.3 19961 2.3 1.9 4.2 2.3 19962 1.2 1.7 4.6 2.9 19963 1.8 1.8 3.4 1.6 19964 1.8 1.1 2.1 1.0 19971 2.8 4.5 1.8 -2.6 19972 1.6 1.7 3.4 1.6 19973 1.2 1.6 5.3 3.6 19974 1.2 1.3 4.1 2.8 19981 0.8 1.1 4.6 3.4 19982 0.9 1.2 5.8 4.5 19983 1.0 1.3 4.4 3.0 19984 0.8 -0.3 5.3 5.7 19991 1.4 2.3 4.4 2.0 19992 1.4 1.3 2.7 1.4 19993 1.6 1.5 2.9 1.4 19994 1.7 1.5 2.9 1.4 20001 1.7 1.6 3.0 1.4 20002 1.8 1.7 3.1 1.4 20003 1.9 1.8 3.2 1.4 20004 2.0 1.9 3.3 1.4 20011 2.1 1.9 3.4 1.4 20012 2.1 2.0 3.4 1.4 20013 2.2 2.1 3.5 1.4 20014 2.2 2.1 3.5 1.4 20021 2.3 2.1 3.6 1.4 20022 2.3 2.2 3.6 1.4 20023 2.4 2.2 3.7 1.4 20024 2.4 2.2 3.7 1.4 20031 2.4 2.2 3.7 1.4 20032 2.4 2.3 3.7 1.4 20033 2.5 2.3 3.7 1.4 20034 2.5 2.3 3.8 1.5
GDPD GDP Price Index PF Firm Sector Price Index WF Nominal Wage Rate WR Real Wage Rate %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Money and Interest Rates
                                                                         

Quar. RS RB RM M1 %Ch UBR
19951 5.8 8.3 8.9 1210.5 1.1 67.4 19952 5.6 7.7 8.2 1215.9 1.8 66.1 19953 5.4 7.4 8.1 1202.9 -4.2 66.1 19954 5.3 7.0 7.5 1200.5 -0.8 70.1 19961 4.9 7.0 7.6 1195.3 -1.7 66.3 19962 5.0 7.6 8.5 1201.4 2.0 67.7 19963 5.1 7.6 8.6 1215.8 4.9 68.6 19964 5.0 7.2 8.1 1204.9 -3.5 69.6 19971 5.1 7.4 8.2 1224.8 6.8 62.9 19972 5.1 7.6 8.2 1240.8 5.3 68.1 19973 5.1 7.2 7.7 1232.8 -2.6 71.4 19974 5.1 6.9 7.4 1249.6 5.6 73.8 19981 5.1 6.7 7.1 1265.9 5.3 71.1 19982 5.0 6.6 7.2 1278.4 4.0 69.8 19983 4.8 6.5 7.0 1286.7 2.6 76.1 19984 4.3 6.3 6.9 1312.4 8.3 68.4 19991 4.4 6.4 7.1 1321.2 2.7 68.8 19992 4.8 6.6 7.2 1341.4 6.3 68.7 19993 5.1 6.6 7.4 1361.2 6.0 69.3 19994 5.1 6.7 7.6 1380.4 5.8 70.0 20001 5.2 6.8 7.7 1399.2 5.6 70.8 20002 5.3 6.9 7.8 1417.6 5.4 71.5 20003 5.5 7.0 7.9 1435.5 5.2 72.2 20004 5.6 7.1 8.0 1453.1 5.0 72.9 20011 5.6 7.1 8.1 1470.3 4.8 73.6 20012 5.7 7.2 8.2 1487.4 4.7 74.2 20013 5.8 7.3 8.3 1504.3 4.6 74.8 20014 5.8 7.4 8.4 1521.0 4.5 75.4 20021 5.8 7.4 8.5 1537.6 4.4 76.1 20022 5.8 7.5 8.5 1554.1 4.4 76.7 20023 5.8 7.5 8.6 1570.5 4.3 77.3 20024 5.8 7.6 8.6 1586.9 4.2 77.9 20031 5.7 7.6 8.6 1603.2 4.2 78.5 20032 5.6 7.6 8.6 1619.5 4.1 79.1 20033 5.6 7.6 8.6 1635.8 4.1 79.7 20034 5.5 7.6 8.5 1652.2 4.1 80.3
RS Bill Rate RB Bond Rate RM Mortgage Rate M1 Money Supply UBR Unborrowed Reserves %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Employment and Labor Force
                                                                         

Quar. 100UR L1 L2 L3 JF E U %Ch %Ch %Ch %Ch %Ch mill.
19951 5.5 1.3 1.5 -1.2 3.0 1.3 7.2 19952 5.7 -0.2 1.7 -0.9 0.8 -0.7 7.5 19953 5.7 -0.4 1.8 1.5 2.0 0.9 7.5 19954 5.6 0.9 2.8 -2.5 1.5 0.9 7.4 19961 5.5 2.3 0.9 -0.6 2.1 1.2 7.4 19962 5.5 2.0 2.3 1.5 2.2 2.2 7.3 19963 5.3 1.8 2.8 0.9 2.7 2.8 7.1 19964 5.3 1.4 2.7 2.4 2.6 1.9 7.2 19971 5.2 2.0 0.8 4.3 3.2 2.6 7.1 19972 5.0 0.7 1.5 1.9 2.1 2.3 6.8 19973 4.9 1.2 2.6 -0.9 1.5 1.5 6.6 19974 4.7 0.2 -1.8 5.2 2.8 1.7 6.4 19981 4.6 0.8 1.2 3.0 2.4 1.7 6.4 19982 4.4 -0.1 -0.8 1.3 2.7 1.0 6.1 19983 4.5 0.0 0.8 2.1 2.0 0.4 6.2 19984 4.4 1.6 1.0 3.0 1.3 2.3 6.1 19991 4.3 0.2 4.5 3.4 1.8 3.1 6.0 19992 4.1 1.0 2.5 2.1 2.5 2.4 5.8 19993 4.0 1.0 2.5 2.1 2.4 2.3 5.6 19994 4.0 1.0 2.5 2.1 2.0 1.9 5.6 20001 4.0 1.1 2.5 2.1 1.9 1.8 5.7 20002 4.0 1.1 2.5 2.1 1.8 1.7 5.7 20003 4.1 1.1 2.5 2.2 1.7 1.7 5.8 20004 4.1 1.1 2.5 2.2 1.7 1.6 6.0 20011 4.2 1.1 2.5 2.2 1.7 1.6 6.1 20012 4.3 1.1 2.5 2.2 1.6 1.5 6.2 20013 4.4 1.1 2.5 2.2 1.6 1.5 6.4 20014 4.5 1.1 2.5 2.2 1.5 1.4 6.6 20021 4.7 1.1 2.5 2.2 1.4 1.3 6.9 20022 4.9 1.1 2.5 2.2 1.3 1.2 7.2 20023 5.0 1.1 2.5 2.2 1.2 1.1 7.5 20024 5.2 1.1 2.5 2.2 1.1 1.1 7.8 20031 5.4 1.1 2.5 2.2 1.1 1.1 8.2 20032 5.6 1.1 2.5 2.2 1.0 1.0 8.5 20033 5.8 1.1 2.5 2.2 1.0 1.0 8.8 20034 6.0 1.1 2.4 2.2 0.9 1.0 9.2
UR Unemployment Rate L1 Labor Force, Men 25-54 L2 Labor Force, Women 25-54 L3 Labor Force, All Others 16+ JF Jobs, Firm Sector E Total Employment U Total Unemployment %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Other Endogenous Variables
                                                                         

Quar. CG PIEF PIEF 100SRZ PROD SR SGP SSP %Ch %Ch
19951 1242.9 516.5 10.2 4.5 -2.4 110.7 -189.7 110.5 19952 1178.0 525.3 7.0 3.5 0.0 118.1 -177.8 112.8 19953 1372.0 534.8 7.4 3.4 0.4 100.1 -176.9 112.9 19954 992.7 547.3 9.7 3.7 3.9 73.6 -153.0 110.8 19961 880.1 553.3 4.5 3.5 2.9 97.8 -150.0 117.2 19962 441.9 566.6 10.0 2.8 3.4 114.9 -112.6 129.1 19963 491.4 570.3 2.6 3.3 0.3 146.1 -100.2 122.4 19964 1447.1 587.6 12.7 2.9 2.4 117.8 -78.4 121.8 19971 -101.5 584.8 -1.9 2.5 -1.1 130.9 -51.2 128.4 19972 2989.9 601.1 11.6 2.8 1.4 123.9 -34.9 130.1 19973 1878.8 630.5 21.0 1.8 3.1 140.9 -0.3 136.6 19974 507.7 601.5 -17.2 1.8 0.1 167.8 2.2 141.3 19981 2817.3 582.5 -12.0 1.3 3.1 175.5 58.8 140.3 19982 447.0 588.7 4.3 0.5 0.1 214.8 74.5 141.2 19983 -2316.3 587.2 -1.0 0.3 2.6 231.8 92.0 148.7 19984 4838.3 575.1 -8.0 0.1 3.9 228.4 65.8 170.4 19991 800.0 594.9 14.5 -0.5 3.4 259.2 105.4 167.4 19992 105.1 613.8 13.4 -0.7 2.1 280.7 106.1 172.8 19993 132.9 621.1 4.8 -1.0 1.2 301.4 109.7 176.2 19994 176.5 620.2 -0.6 -1.4 0.8 320.8 111.0 178.0 20001 181.8 625.5 3.5 -1.8 1.2 327.4 113.5 179.6 20002 164.3 629.9 2.8 -2.0 1.3 333.1 114.8 180.8 20003 166.5 634.7 3.1 -2.3 1.3 337.9 116.5 181.5 20004 171.8 642.4 5.0 -2.6 1.4 341.7 120.3 182.3 20011 171.1 650.8 5.3 -2.7 1.4 345.0 116.7 184.2 20012 173.4 659.0 5.1 -2.8 1.4 347.9 112.3 185.7 20013 178.5 667.1 5.0 -2.9 1.3 350.4 107.9 186.9 20014 186.0 675.3 5.0 -3.0 1.3 352.6 103.2 187.6 20021 194.1 683.8 5.1 -3.1 1.3 354.3 97.8 188.0 20022 202.9 693.0 5.5 -3.2 1.3 355.8 91.8 188.2 20023 212.0 703.3 6.1 -3.2 1.3 357.1 85.5 188.1 20024 221.8 715.0 6.9 -3.3 1.3 358.1 79.0 187.7 20031 231.2 728.0 7.5 -3.4 1.3 358.9 72.3 187.3 20032 240.7 742.4 8.1 -3.5 1.4 359.6 65.3 186.7 20033 249.7 758.0 8.7 -3.5 1.4 360.1 58.3 186.1 20034 258.3 774.7 9.1 -3.6 1.4 360.6 51.6 185.5
CG Capital Gains PIEF Profits SRZ Saving Rate PROD Productivity SR Savings-Foreign Sector SGP Federal Budget Deficit(-), NIPA SSP S&L Budget Deficit(-), NIPA %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Selected Exogenous Variables
                                                                         

Quar. COG COS EX TRGH TRGH PIM %Ch %Ch %Ch %Ch %Ch
19951 -2.3 2.1 9.2 695.8 13.0 1.4 19952 -2.4 7.6 5.4 706.3 6.2 6.1 19953 -2.5 0.0 17.8 713.6 4.2 -2.7 19954 -15.9 4.7 10.2 719.8 3.5 -3.3 19961 17.3 3.8 3.7 738.8 11.0 -2.6 19962 12.8 5.9 5.8 746.9 4.5 -2.1 19963 -6.9 0.5 2.1 750.7 2.1 -4.4 19964 -7.6 9.2 32.1 755.8 2.7 0.1 19971 -4.3 11.5 8.3 773.9 9.9 -5.2 19972 9.8 -0.6 15.6 777.3 1.8 -6.8 19973 -1.2 3.8 10.6 781.2 2.0 -1.9 19974 1.1 0.7 4.4 784.4 1.6 -2.0 19981 -17.2 2.6 -2.7 798.6 7.4 -10.4 19982 16.9 0.9 -7.7 802.1 1.8 -4.6 19983 -3.0 4.8 -2.8 805.8 1.9 -4.8 19984 16.5 0.4 19.7 807.2 0.7 -0.2 19991 0.3 16.8 -7.7 820.5 6.8 -3.7 19992 2.0 3.0 0.0 830.6 5.0 2.0 19993 2.0 3.0 0.0 840.8 5.0 2.0 19994 2.0 3.0 0.0 851.1 5.0 2.0 20001 2.0 3.0 5.0 861.5 5.0 2.0 20002 2.0 3.0 5.0 872.1 5.0 2.0 20003 2.0 3.0 5.0 882.8 5.0 2.0 20004 2.0 3.0 5.0 893.6 5.0 2.0 20011 2.0 3.0 5.0 911.0 8.0 2.0 20012 2.0 3.0 5.0 928.7 8.0 2.0 20013 2.0 3.0 5.0 946.7 8.0 2.0 20014 2.0 3.0 5.0 965.1 8.0 2.0 20021 2.0 3.0 5.0 983.9 8.0 2.0 20022 2.0 3.0 5.0 1003.0 8.0 2.0 20023 2.0 3.0 5.0 1022.5 8.0 2.0 20024 2.0 3.0 5.0 1042.3 8.0 2.0 20031 2.0 3.0 5.0 1062.6 8.0 2.0 20032 2.0 3.0 5.0 1083.2 8.0 2.0 20033 2.0 3.0 5.0 1104.3 8.0 2.0 20034 2.0 3.0 5.0 1125.7 8.0 2.0
COG Real Federal Purchases of Goods COS Real S&L Purchases of Goods EX Exports TRGH Nominal Federal Transfer Payments PIM Import Price Index %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F2: Forecasts of the Federal Government Budget
Table F2
US Model Forecasts of the Federal Government Budget
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Quar. RECG TFG TCG IBTG SIG
19951 1426.1 582.9 172.5 96.0 574.7 19952 1459.3 609.4 176.6 94.6 578.7 19953 1469.1 608.2 186.2 89.2 585.5 19954 1486.8 623.9 182.1 90.3 590.5 19961 1529.9 652.6 191.2 89.9 596.2 19962 1581.8 691.4 195.2 88.5 606.7 19963 1593.6 693.8 194.3 90.5 615.0 19964 1633.5 710.0 191.4 109.2 622.9 19971 1671.1 741.7 203.9 90.7 634.8 19972 1703.5 759.1 206.5 95.5 642.4 19973 1739.6 776.9 217.0 95.1 650.6 19974 1765.5 798.6 212.8 93.8 660.3 19981 1809.1 836.5 204.8 93.9 673.9 19982 1838.3 855.7 206.2 95.2 681.2 19983 1858.8 863.8 207.5 98.3 689.2 19984 1870.4 875.9 201.0 96.0 697.5 19991 1899.3 883.7 205.6 96.1 713.9 19992 1928.2 898.5 210.0 97.5 722.3 19993 1951.4 910.5 211.7 98.8 730.4 19994 1970.0 920.6 211.4 100.2 737.8 20001 1991.0 931.3 212.7 101.6 745.4 20002 2013.2 943.2 213.7 103.0 753.3 20003 2035.7 955.2 214.8 104.3 761.4 20004 2059.6 967.4 216.6 105.7 769.8 20011 2084.3 980.1 218.5 107.2 778.5 20012 2109.4 993.1 220.4 108.6 787.3 20013 2134.6 1006.2 222.3 110.0 796.1 20014 2159.9 1019.3 224.2 111.4 805.0 20021 2185.3 1032.5 226.2 112.8 813.9 20022 2211.2 1045.8 228.3 114.2 822.8 20023 2237.3 1059.1 230.7 115.7 831.8 20024 2263.8 1072.5 233.4 117.1 840.8 20031 2290.7 1085.9 236.4 118.6 849.9 20032 2318.2 1099.4 239.8 120.0 859.1 20033 2346.2 1113.0 243.4 121.5 868.3 20034 2374.6 1126.7 247.2 123.0 877.7
Quar. EXPG PUG-IGZ TRGH TRGR TRGS INTG SUBG SGP
19951 1615.8 443.0 695.8 11.9 212.4 218.3 34.4 -189.7 19952 1637.1 444.7 706.3 10.8 216.4 224.3 34.6 -177.8 19953 1646.0 447.2 713.6 11.2 211.0 227.8 35.2 -176.9 19954 1639.8 436.5 719.8 11.6 208.1 228.7 35.1 -153.0 19961 1679.9 445.7 738.8 19.0 214.3 227.7 34.4 -150.0 19962 1694.4 453.1 746.9 11.0 223.8 226.1 33.5 -112.6 19963 1693.8 452.9 750.7 11.8 219.0 228.6 30.8 -100.2 19964 1711.9 451.8 755.8 22.8 218.4 231.1 32.0 -78.4 19971 1722.3 456.8 773.9 9.5 220.7 229.4 32.0 -51.2 19972 1738.4 464.8 777.3 9.9 223.2 231.6 31.6 -34.9 19973 1739.9 460.0 781.2 9.9 224.4 231.9 32.5 -0.3 19974 1763.3 460.1 784.4 21.5 231.8 231.8 33.7 2.2 19981 1750.3 450.9 798.6 9.9 228.7 228.8 33.4 58.8 19982 1763.8 464.0 802.1 9.0 226.9 228.3 33.5 74.5 19983 1766.8 458.7 805.8 11.2 231.4 225.7 34.0 92.0 19984 1804.6 470.6 807.2 22.6 237.4 221.4 45.4 65.8 19991 1793.9 474.6 820.5 10.2 240.4 213.9 34.3 105.4 19992 1822.1 478.2 830.6 10.2 243.8 225.0 34.3 106.1 19993 1841.7 482.1 840.8 10.2 247.3 227.1 34.3 109.7 19994 1859.0 486.0 851.1 10.2 250.8 226.6 34.3 111.0 20001 1877.6 490.1 861.5 10.2 254.3 227.1 34.3 113.5 20002 1898.4 494.4 872.1 10.2 258.0 229.4 34.3 114.8 20003 1919.3 498.8 882.8 10.2 261.6 231.5 34.3 116.5 20004 1939.3 503.4 893.6 10.2 265.3 232.5 34.3 120.3 20011 1967.6 508.1 911.0 10.2 270.5 233.5 34.3 116.7 20012 1997.0 512.9 928.7 10.2 275.7 235.2 34.3 112.3 20013 2026.7 517.9 946.7 10.2 281.1 236.5 34.3 107.9 20014 2056.6 522.9 965.1 10.2 286.6 237.5 34.3 103.2 20021 2087.5 528.1 983.9 10.2 292.1 239.0 34.3 97.8 20022 2119.4 533.3 1003.0 10.2 297.8 240.8 34.3 91.8 20023 2151.8 538.6 1022.5 10.2 303.6 242.6 34.3 85.5 20024 2184.8 544.0 1042.3 10.2 309.5 244.5 34.3 79.0 20031 2218.4 549.5 1062.6 10.2 315.5 246.4 34.3 72.3 20032 2252.9 555.0 1083.2 10.2 321.6 248.5 34.3 65.3 20033 2287.9 560.7 1104.3 10.2 327.9 250.6 34.3 58.3 20034 2323.0 566.4 1125.7 10.2 334.2 252.2 34.3 51.6
RECG Total Receipts TPG Personal Tax TCG Corporate Tax IBTG Indirect Business Tax SIG Social Insurance Contributions EXPG Total Current Expenditures PUG-IGZ Consumption Expenditures TRGH Transfer Payments to Persons TRGR Transfer Payments to Rest of the World TRGS Grants in Aid to S&L Governments INTG Net Interest Paid SUBG Subsidies less Current Surplus SGP NIPA Surplus(+) or Deficit(-)
Table F3: Forecasts of the State and Local Government Budget
Table F3
US Model Forecasts of the S&L Government Budget
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Quar. RECS TFS TCS IBTS SIS TRGS
19951 985.9 184.2 30.4 483.1 75.8 212.4 19952 996.1 186.3 31.0 486.0 76.4 216.4 19953 1001.9 190.8 32.9 490.4 76.8 211.0 19954 1007.1 194.4 32.2 495.3 77.1 208.1 19961 1025.3 197.1 32.7 504.0 77.2 214.3 19962 1048.0 201.9 33.4 511.3 77.6 223.8 19963 1049.2 205.6 33.3 513.3 78.0 219.0 19964 1058.4 209.7 32.8 519.1 78.4 218.4 19971 1075.2 213.9 34.9 526.5 79.2 220.7 19972 1084.5 216.7 35.4 529.5 79.7 223.2 19973 1100.9 222.1 37.3 536.9 80.2 224.4 19974 1116.5 226.9 36.5 540.7 80.6 231.8 19981 1123.3 230.4 35.1 548.0 81.1 228.7 19982 1133.7 237.2 35.4 552.5 81.7 226.9 19983 1152.3 244.6 35.7 558.2 82.4 231.4 19984 1183.1 248.9 34.5 579.1 83.2 237.4 19991 1191.1 252.8 35.3 578.3 84.3 240.4 19992 1208.8 257.2 36.0 586.7 85.1 243.8 19993 1225.0 260.7 36.3 594.8 85.8 247.3 19994 1240.5 263.7 36.3 603.1 86.6 250.8 20001 1256.5 266.9 36.5 611.4 87.4 254.3 20002 1272.7 270.3 36.7 619.6 88.2 258.0 20003 1289.1 273.9 36.9 627.8 89.0 261.6 20004 1306.1 277.5 37.2 636.3 89.8 265.3 20011 1324.6 281.3 37.5 644.8 90.6 270.5 20012 1343.3 285.1 37.8 653.3 91.4 275.7 20013 1362.2 289.0 38.2 661.7 92.2 281.1 20014 1381.2 292.8 38.5 670.2 93.0 286.6 20021 1400.3 296.8 38.8 678.8 93.9 292.1 20022 1419.8 300.7 39.2 687.3 94.7 297.8 20023 1439.4 304.7 39.6 696.0 95.6 303.6 20024 1459.3 308.6 40.1 704.7 96.5 309.5 20031 1479.5 312.6 40.6 713.5 97.3 315.5 20032 1499.9 316.6 41.2 722.4 98.2 321.6 20033 1520.7 320.6 41.8 731.4 99.1 327.9 20034 1541.8 324.7 42.4 740.4 100.0 334.2
Quar. EXPS PUS-ISZ TRSH INTS DRS SUBS SSP
19951 875.4 684.8 275.2 -62.7 12.1 -9.8 110.5 19952 883.3 693.5 279.2 -67.4 12.3 -9.7 112.8 19953 889.0 698.4 283.4 -70.5 12.6 -9.7 112.9 19954 896.3 704.2 286.9 -72.1 12.8 -9.9 110.8 19961 908.1 712.6 289.6 -70.5 13.2 -10.4 117.2 19962 918.9 721.6 292.3 -70.7 13.6 -10.7 129.1 19963 926.8 727.8 294.9 -71.4 13.7 -10.8 122.4 19964 936.6 736.7 297.3 -72.5 14.0 -10.9 121.8 19971 946.8 747.2 299.7 -75.0 14.4 -10.7 128.4 19972 954.4 754.0 302.5 -76.7 14.8 -10.6 130.1 19973 964.3 762.2 305.5 -78.2 14.7 -10.5 136.6 19974 975.2 771.5 308.6 -79.5 15.1 -10.3 141.3 19981 983.0 776.7 312.6 -80.7 15.7 -9.9 140.3 19982 992.5 784.7 315.6 -82.2 16.0 -9.6 141.2 19983 1003.6 793.9 318.8 -83.7 16.0 -9.4 148.7 19984 1012.7 801.2 322.5 -85.3 16.6 -9.1 170.4 19991 1023.7 810.2 326.2 -86.9 16.8 -9.0 167.4 19992 1036.0 819.9 329.6 -87.5 17.0 -9.0 172.8 19993 1048.8 830.1 333.1 -88.2 17.2 -9.0 176.2 19994 1062.4 840.5 337.2 -88.8 17.4 -9.0 178.0 20001 1076.9 851.3 341.7 -89.5 17.6 -9.0 179.6 20002 1092.0 862.5 346.5 -90.2 17.9 -9.0 180.8 20003 1107.6 874.0 351.5 -90.8 18.1 -9.0 181.5 20004 1123.8 885.8 356.8 -91.5 18.3 -9.0 182.3 20011 1140.4 897.9 362.2 -92.2 18.5 -9.0 184.2 20012 1157.6 910.4 367.9 -92.9 18.7 -9.0 185.7 20013 1175.3 923.1 373.8 -93.6 19.0 -9.0 186.9 20014 1193.5 936.1 379.9 -94.3 19.2 -9.0 187.6 20021 1212.3 949.4 386.3 -95.0 19.4 -9.0 188.0 20022 1231.6 962.9 393.1 -95.7 19.7 -9.0 188.2 20023 1251.3 976.6 400.1 -96.4 19.9 -9.0 188.1 20024 1271.6 990.6 407.3 -97.1 20.2 -9.0 187.7 20031 1292.2 1004.7 414.7 -97.8 20.4 -9.0 187.3 20032 1313.2 1019.2 422.2 -98.5 20.7 -9.0 186.7 20033 1334.6 1033.8 429.9 -99.3 20.9 -9.0 186.1 20034 1356.3 1048.7 437.8 -100.0 21.2 -9.0 185.5
RECS Total Receipts TPS Personal Tax TCS Corporate Tax IBTS Indirect Business Tax SIS Social Insurance Contributions TRGS Grants in Aid from Federal Government EXPS Total Current Expenditures PUS-ISZ Consumption Expenditures TRSH Transfer Payments to Persons INTS Net Interest Paid DRS Dividends Received SUBS Subsidies less Current Surplus SSP NIPA Surplus(+) or Deficit(-)
Table F4 Forecasts of Savings Flows
Table F4
US Model Forecasts of Savings Flows
Savings by Sector
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Quar. SH SF SB SR SG SS
19951 135.0 -43.1 43.1 110.7 -223.2 -22.5 19952 101.2 -22.6 44.2 118.1 -211.4 -29.5 19953 86.8 -10.4 52.1 100.1 -215.2 -13.4 19954 35.9 -6.8 45.0 73.6 -119.9 -27.9 19961 122.8 -23.7 52.5 97.8 -237.6 -11.8 19962 45.8 -39.3 48.7 114.9 -157.2 -12.9 19963 66.4 -102.5 40.6 146.1 -136.0 -14.5 19964 76.4 -61.6 31.0 117.8 -123.5 -40.0 19971 30.7 -112.7 57.8 130.9 -72.8 -33.9 19972 78.4 -143.8 62.1 123.9 -58.2 -62.4 19973 38.1 -143.9 64.4 140.9 -40.8 -58.7 19974 -13.0 -177.3 68.0 167.8 -40.4 -5.0 19981 -85.4 -207.1 71.1 175.5 43.5 2.5 19982 -114.8 -207.2 69.2 214.8 44.3 -6.3 19983 -136.5 -223.9 71.9 231.8 53.1 3.6 19984 -147.7 -196.1 77.6 228.4 17.9 19.9 19991 -192.7 -202.4 76.5 259.2 53.6 5.8 19992 -208.0 -216.5 77.1 280.7 54.3 12.3 19993 -225.7 -228.1 77.8 301.4 57.9 16.8 19994 -248.7 -229.5 78.5 320.8 59.2 19.7 20001 -268.0 -222.6 79.2 327.4 61.7 22.3 20002 -281.9 -218.8 79.9 333.1 63.0 24.6 20003 -295.4 -214.5 80.7 337.9 64.7 26.5 20004 -311.6 -208.6 81.6 341.7 68.5 28.5 20011 -320.4 -203.5 82.5 345.0 64.8 31.5 20012 -327.9 -198.1 83.4 347.9 60.5 34.2 20013 -335.3 -192.0 84.3 350.4 56.1 36.5 20014 -343.1 -184.6 85.2 352.6 51.4 38.5 20021 -350.8 -175.9 86.2 354.3 46.0 40.1 20022 -358.6 -165.8 87.2 355.8 39.9 41.5 20023 -367.1 -154.4 88.2 357.1 33.7 42.6 20024 -376.4 -141.6 89.2 358.1 27.1 43.6 20031 -386.2 -127.8 90.2 358.9 20.5 44.4 20032 -396.4 -113.0 91.3 359.6 13.5 45.1 20033 -407.3 -97.5 92.3 360.1 6.5 45.8 20034 -418.8 -81.5 93.4 360.6 -0.3 46.5 SH Saving, Households SF Saving, Firms SB Saving, Financial SR Saving, Foreign SG Saving, Federal SS Saving, State and Local
NIPA Table 1.1
NIPA Table 1.1
US Model Forecasts Gross Domestic Product
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Table 1.1 Quar. 1 2 3 4 5
19951 7170.9 4862.5 598.4 1459.6 2804.5 19952 7210.9 4931.4 606.0 1470.7 2854.7 19953 7304.8 4986.4 616.9 1476.8 2892.7 19954 7391.9 5035.3 622.8 1487.5 2925.0 19961 7495.3 5108.1 632.3 1506.8 2969.0 19962 7629.2 5198.9 647.3 1537.9 3013.7 19963 7703.4 5242.4 642.5 1543.6 3056.3 19964 7818.4 5313.3 651.1 1568.3 3093.9 19971 7954.9 5402.5 668.9 1589.7 3143.9 19972 8063.4 5438.8 659.9 1588.2 3190.7 19973 8170.9 5540.4 681.2 1611.3 3247.9 19974 8254.5 5593.2 682.2 1613.2 3297.8 19981 8384.1 5676.4 705.1 1633.1 3338.2 19982 8440.4 5773.7 720.1 1655.2 3398.4 19983 8537.8 5846.6 718.9 1670.0 3457.7 19984 8681.2 5934.7 754.5 1691.3 3488.9 19991 8808.2 6047.2 768.8 1734.9 3543.5 19992 8928.7 6135.5 783.7 1760.1 3591.8 19993 9030.5 6220.2 798.9 1780.2 3641.0 19994 9118.2 6306.7 814.4 1799.9 3692.4 20001 9216.0 6393.4 829.9 1819.7 3743.8 20002 9317.3 6478.8 844.7 1839.1 3795.1 20003 9420.8 6564.7 859.1 1858.6 3847.0 20004 9530.3 6653.9 873.4 1879.1 3901.3 20011 9642.6 6742.7 887.2 1899.3 3956.1 20012 9756.0 6831.2 900.6 1919.3 4011.4 20013 9869.9 6919.8 913.6 1939.1 4067.1 20014 9984.0 7008.5 926.4 1958.9 4123.2 20021 10098.5 7097.6 938.9 1978.9 4179.8 20022 10213.5 7187.3 951.4 1999.1 4236.9 20023 10329.3 7277.7 963.7 2019.5 4294.5 20024 10446.0 7368.9 976.0 2040.1 4352.7 20031 10563.8 7460.8 988.4 2061.0 4411.4 20032 10682.9 7553.7 1000.8 2082.1 4470.8 20033 10803.4 7647.6 1013.3 2103.5 4530.9 20034 10925.3 7742.7 1025.9 2125.2 4591.6
Quar. 6 7 8 11 12
19951 1059.0 1000.0 713.6 286.4 59.0 19952 1029.6 1004.3 728.1 276.2 25.3 19953 1030.6 1013.5 729.5 284.0 17.1 19954 1053.6 1032.1 739.5 292.6 21.5 19961 1075.4 1059.1 759.0 300.1 16.3 19962 1118.3 1089.8 774.8 315.0 28.5 19963 1167.9 1118.1 801.1 317.0 49.8 19964 1165.9 1132.1 816.8 315.3 33.8 19971 1206.3 1146.6 827.1 319.5 59.7 19972 1259.9 1176.4 850.5 325.9 83.5 19973 1265.7 1211.1 882.3 328.8 54.6 19974 1292.1 1220.2 882.8 337.4 71.9 19981 1366.6 1271.1 921.3 349.8 95.5 19982 1344.9 1305.7 941.9 363.8 39.2 19983 1364.4 1307.4 931.6 375.8 57.0 19984 1392.5 1346.8 957.9 388.9 45.7 19991 1421.3 1375.1 970.8 404.3 46.2 19992 1461.4 1400.7 990.2 410.5 60.7 19993 1485.0 1420.7 1008.9 411.8 64.3 19994 1490.9 1433.3 1023.6 409.7 57.6 20001 1493.4 1443.9 1037.0 406.9 49.5 20002 1499.2 1453.7 1049.2 404.5 45.5 20003 1505.5 1462.5 1060.3 402.3 43.0 20004 1513.0 1471.6 1071.1 400.5 41.4 20011 1522.7 1481.3 1081.5 399.7 41.4 20012 1532.8 1491.1 1091.3 399.8 41.7 20013 1542.8 1500.9 1100.3 400.6 41.8 20014 1551.9 1510.4 1108.3 402.1 41.5 20021 1560.3 1519.4 1115.2 404.2 40.9 20022 1568.1 1528.0 1121.1 406.9 40.0 20023 1575.4 1536.2 1126.0 410.2 39.2 20024 1582.4 1543.9 1130.0 413.9 38.4 20031 1589.1 1551.3 1133.2 418.1 37.8 20032 1595.6 1558.4 1135.6 422.8 37.2 20033 1602.1 1565.3 1137.4 427.9 36.8 20034 1608.5 1572.0 1138.7 433.3 36.5
Quar. 13 14 17 20 21 24
19951 -94.7 787.8 882.5 1344.1 512.3 831.8 19952 -108.0 803.4 911.4 1357.9 511.7 846.2 19953 -74.5 835.1 909.6 1362.3 511.2 851.1 19954 -58.4 851.5 909.9 1361.4 501.2 860.2 19961 -75.7 856.6 932.3 1387.5 517.1 870.4 19962 -94.0 863.0 957.0 1406.0 523.1 882.9 19963 -115.5 861.4 976.9 1408.6 519.0 889.6 19964 -79.6 914.2 993.8 1418.8 514.6 904.2 19971 -93.3 930.2 1023.5 1439.4 517.0 922.4 19972 -86.8 961.1 1047.9 1451.5 522.9 928.6 19973 -94.7 981.7 1076.4 1459.5 521.0 938.5 19974 -98.8 988.6 1087.4 1468.0 520.1 947.9 19981 -123.8 973.3 1097.1 1464.9 511.6 953.3 19982 -159.3 949.6 1108.9 1481.1 520.7 960.4 19983 -165.5 936.2 1101.7 1492.3 519.4 972.9 19984 -156.2 976.8 1133.0 1510.2 530.7 979.5 19991 -198.5 955.5 1154.0 1538.2 538.6 999.6 19992 -219.8 958.6 1178.4 1551.6 542.2 1009.3 19993 -240.2 962.1 1202.3 1565.5 546.1 1019.5 19994 -259.3 965.7 1225.1 1579.9 550.0 1029.9 20001 -265.6 981.5 1247.1 1594.9 554.1 1040.7 20002 -271.1 997.7 1268.8 1610.3 558.4 1051.9 20003 -275.6 1014.4 1290.0 1626.2 562.8 1063.4 20004 -279.1 1031.6 1310.7 1642.6 567.4 1075.2 20011 -282.2 1049.3 1331.4 1659.4 572.1 1087.3 20012 -284.8 1067.4 1352.2 1676.7 576.9 1099.8 20013 -287.0 1086.0 1373.0 1694.4 581.9 1112.5 20014 -288.8 1105.0 1393.8 1712.4 586.9 1125.5 20021 -290.3 1124.5 1414.8 1730.8 592.1 1138.8 20022 -291.5 1144.3 1435.8 1749.5 597.3 1152.3 20023 -292.4 1164.6 1457.1 1768.6 602.6 1166.0 20024 -293.1 1185.3 1478.5 1788.0 608.0 1180.0 20031 -293.7 1206.5 1500.1 1807.6 613.5 1194.1 20032 -294.0 1228.1 1522.1 1827.6 619.0 1208.6 20033 -294.2 1250.1 1544.3 1847.9 624.7 1223.2 20034 -294.4 1272.5 1566.9 1868.5 630.4 1238.1
Line 1 Gross Domestic Product Line 2 Personal Consumption Expenditures Line 3 Durable Goods Line 4 Nondurable Goods Line 5 Services Line 6 Gross Private Domestic Investment Line 7 Fixed Investment Line 8 Nonresidential Line 11 Residential Line 12 Change in Business Inventories Line 13 Net Exports of Goods and Services Line 14 Exports Line 17 Imports Line 20 Government Consumption Expenditures and Gross Investment Line 21 Federal Line 22 State and Local
NIPA Table 1.2
NIPA Table 1.2
US Model Forecasts Gross Domestic Product
Billions of 1992 Dollars
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Table 1.2 Quar. 1 2 3 4 5
19951 6717.5 4556.0 575.2 1410.4 2570.4 19952 6724.2 4594.2 583.5 1415.9 2594.8 19953 6779.5 4624.1 595.3 1418.5 2610.3 19954 6825.8 4650.9 602.4 1425.6 2622.9 19961 6882.0 4693.0 611.0 1433.5 2648.5 19962 6983.9 4748.3 629.5 1450.4 2668.4 19963 7020.0 4769.3 626.5 1454.7 2688.1 19964 7093.1 4804.3 637.5 1465.1 2701.7 19971 7166.7 4856.3 656.3 1477.9 2722.1 19972 7236.5 4874.5 653.8 1477.1 2743.6 19973 7311.2 4950.7 679.6 1495.7 2775.4 19974 7364.6 4983.9 684.8 1494.3 2804.8 19981 7464.7 5060.8 710.3 1521.2 2829.3 19982 7498.6 5137.1 729.4 1540.9 2866.8 19983 7566.5 5187.6 733.7 1549.1 2904.8 19984 7677.7 5257.3 775.0 1565.1 2917.2 19991 7762.5 5346.0 796.4 1599.9 2949.7 19992 7841.8 5406.7 809.1 1617.7 2979.9 19993 7900.5 5462.1 821.9 1630.3 3009.9 19994 7943.7 5517.7 834.6 1642.1 3040.9 20001 7994.3 5571.2 847.1 1653.4 3070.7 20002 8045.7 5622.0 858.5 1664.0 3099.5 20003 8096.9 5671.5 869.2 1674.2 3128.0 20004 8150.9 5722.3 879.7 1684.9 3157.6 20011 8205.0 5771.0 889.4 1694.9 3186.7 20012 8257.8 5818.2 898.4 1704.4 3215.5 20013 8309.0 5864.0 906.8 1713.4 3243.8 20014 8358.4 5908.8 914.8 1722.1 3271.9 20021 8406.4 5952.9 922.4 1730.7 3299.7 20022 8453.3 5996.4 929.8 1739.3 3327.4 20023 8499.3 6039.6 936.9 1747.8 3354.9 20024 8544.7 6082.5 943.9 1756.3 3382.4 20031 8589.6 6125.2 950.7 1764.8 3409.7 20032 8634.3 6167.9 957.5 1773.3 3437.1 20033 8678.8 6210.5 964.2 1781.9 3464.5 20034 8723.3 6253.3 970.9 1790.5 3491.9
Quar. 6 7 8 11 12
19951 1012.6 958.3 698.4 259.9 54.3 19952 981.4 959.7 710.2 249.5 21.7 19953 982.0 967.3 711.7 255.6 14.7 19954 1004.5 984.4 722.3 262.1 20.1 19961 1027.2 1012.8 744.8 268.0 14.4 19962 1070.7 1044.6 764.4 280.2 26.1 19963 1116.6 1069.1 790.1 279.0 47.5 19964 1115.4 1083.3 807.0 276.3 32.1 19971 1155.6 1099.3 820.9 278.4 56.3 19972 1209.7 1130.7 848.2 282.5 79.0 19973 1215.5 1164.5 882.2 282.3 51.0 19974 1240.6 1174.1 886.2 287.9 66.5 19981 1321.8 1230.4 931.9 298.5 91.4 19982 1307.7 1269.5 960.4 309.1 38.2 19983 1330.9 1275.2 958.7 316.5 55.7 19984 1360.2 1316.0 991.9 324.1 44.2 19991 1391.6 1346.4 1010.3 336.1 45.2 19992 1426.4 1367.2 1027.0 340.1 59.2 19993 1445.1 1382.6 1042.7 339.9 62.5 19994 1446.6 1390.9 1053.9 337.0 55.8 20001 1444.4 1396.7 1063.3 333.3 47.7 20002 1444.9 1401.2 1071.3 329.9 43.7 20003 1445.5 1404.5 1077.8 326.6 41.1 20004 1446.9 1407.5 1083.8 323.7 39.4 20011 1449.9 1410.7 1089.2 321.5 39.2 20012 1453.0 1413.7 1093.6 320.0 39.3 20013 1455.5 1416.2 1097.1 319.1 39.2 20014 1456.9 1418.2 1099.5 318.7 38.7 20021 1457.3 1419.4 1100.7 318.7 37.9 20022 1456.8 1419.9 1100.7 319.1 37.0 20023 1455.7 1419.8 1099.8 320.0 36.0 20024 1454.1 1419.0 1097.8 321.2 35.1 20031 1452.1 1417.8 1095.0 322.8 34.3 20032 1449.7 1416.1 1091.5 324.6 33.6 20033 1447.1 1414.0 1087.3 326.7 33.1 20034 1444.4 1411.7 1082.6 329.1 32.7
Quar. 13 14 17 20
19951 -109.5 763.9 873.4 1256.2 19952 -114.7 774.0 888.7 1259.9 19953 -86.8 806.3 893.1 1257.6 19954 -74.8 826.1 900.9 1244.6 19961 -95.5 833.6 929.1 1254.5 19962 -113.4 845.5 958.9 1276.2 19963 -140.1 849.9 990.0 1271.2 19964 -95.9 911.1 1007.0 1271.3 19971 -121.5 929.4 1050.9 1277.8 19972 -131.6 963.6 1095.2 1284.6 19973 -142.4 988.1 1130.5 1289.0 19974 -149.0 998.8 1147.8 1289.4 19981 -198.5 991.9 1190.4 1283.2 19982 -245.2 972.1 1217.3 1295.0 19983 -259.0 965.3 1224.3 1299.8 19984 -250.0 1009.6 1259.6 1310.6 19991 -305.5 989.5 1295.0 1324.8 19992 -326.4 989.5 1315.9 1329.5 19993 -346.4 989.5 1335.9 1334.1 19994 -365.0 989.5 1354.5 1338.8 20001 -370.4 1001.6 1372.1 1343.6 20002 -375.1 1013.9 1389.0 1348.3 20003 -378.9 1026.4 1405.2 1353.1 20004 -381.8 1039.0 1420.8 1357.9 20011 -384.4 1051.7 1436.1 1362.7 20012 -386.6 1064.6 1451.3 1367.6 20013 -388.6 1077.7 1466.3 1372.5 20014 -390.3 1090.9 1481.2 1377.4 20021 -391.7 1104.3 1496.0 1382.4 20022 -393.0 1117.9 1510.8 1387.4 20023 -394.0 1131.6 1525.6 1392.4 20024 -394.9 1145.5 1540.4 1397.4 20031 -395.7 1159.5 1555.2 1402.5 20032 -396.4 1173.8 1570.2 1407.6 20033 -397.1 1188.2 1585.2 1412.7 20034 -397.8 1202.7 1600.5 1417.8
Line 1 Gross Domestic Product Line 2 Personal Consumption Expenditures Line 3 Durable Goods Line 4 Nondurable Goods Line 5 Services Line 6 Gross Private Domestic Investment Line 7 Fixed Investment Line 8 Nonresidential Line 11 Residential Line 12 Change in Business Inventories Line 13 Net Exports of Goods and Services Line 14 Exports Line 17 Imports Line 20 Government Consumption Expenditures and Gross Investment
NIPA Table 3.2
NIPA Table 3.2
US Model Forecasts Fed. Gov. Receipts and Expenditures
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Table 3.2 Quar. 1 2 6 9 13
19951 1426.1 582.9 172.5 96.0 574.7 19952 1459.3 609.4 176.6 94.6 578.7 19953 1469.1 608.2 186.2 89.2 585.5 19954 1486.8 623.9 182.1 90.3 590.5 19961 1529.9 652.6 191.2 89.9 596.2 19962 1581.8 691.4 195.2 88.5 606.7 19963 1593.6 693.8 194.3 90.5 615.0 19964 1633.5 710.0 191.4 109.2 622.9 19971 1671.1 741.7 203.9 90.7 634.8 19972 1703.5 759.1 206.5 95.5 642.4 19973 1739.6 776.9 217.0 95.1 650.6 19974 1765.5 798.6 212.8 93.8 660.3 19981 1809.1 836.5 204.8 93.9 673.9 19982 1838.3 855.7 206.2 95.2 681.2 19983 1858.8 863.8 207.5 98.3 689.2 19984 1870.4 875.9 201.0 96.0 697.5 19991 1899.3 883.7 205.6 96.1 713.9 19992 1928.2 898.5 210.0 97.5 722.3 19993 1951.4 910.5 211.7 98.8 730.4 19994 1970.0 920.6 211.4 100.2 737.8 20001 1991.0 931.3 212.7 101.6 745.4 20002 2013.2 943.2 213.7 103.0 753.3 20003 2035.7 955.2 214.8 104.3 761.4 20004 2059.6 967.4 216.6 105.7 769.8 20011 2084.3 980.1 218.5 107.2 778.5 20012 2109.4 993.1 220.4 108.6 787.3 20013 2134.6 1006.2 222.3 110.0 796.1 20014 2159.9 1019.3 224.2 111.4 805.0 20021 2185.3 1032.5 226.2 112.8 813.9 20022 2211.2 1045.8 228.3 114.2 822.8 20023 2237.3 1059.1 230.7 115.7 831.8 20024 2263.8 1072.5 233.4 117.1 840.8 20031 2290.7 1085.9 236.4 118.6 849.9 20032 2318.2 1099.4 239.8 120.0 859.1 20033 2346.2 1113.0 243.4 121.5 868.3 20034 2374.6 1126.7 247.2 123.0 877.7
Quar . 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 25 29
19951 1615.8 443.0 707.7 695.8 11.9 212.4 218.3 34.4 -189.7 19952 1637.1 444.7 717.1 706.3 10.8 216.4 224.3 34.6 -177.8 19953 1646.0 447.2 724.8 713.6 11.2 211.0 227.8 35.2 -176.9 19954 1639.8 436.5 731.4 719.8 11.6 208.1 228.7 35.1 -153.0 19961 1679.9 445.7 757.8 738.8 19.0 214.3 227.7 34.4 -150.0 19962 1694.4 453.1 757.9 746.9 11.0 223.8 226.1 33.5 -112.6 19963 1693.8 452.9 762.5 750.7 11.8 219.0 228.6 30.8 -100.2 19964 1711.9 451.8 778.6 755.8 22.8 218.4 231.1 32.0 -78.4 19971 1722.3 456.8 783.4 773.9 9.5 220.7 229.4 32.0 -51.2 19972 1738.4 464.8 787.2 777.3 9.9 223.2 231.6 31.6 -34.9 19973 1739.9 460.0 791.1 781.2 9.9 224.4 231.9 32.5 -0.3 19974 1763.3 460.1 805.9 784.4 21.5 231.8 231.8 33.7 2.2 19981 1750.3 450.9 808.5 798.6 9.9 228.7 228.8 33.4 58.8 19982 1763.8 464.0 811.1 802.1 9.0 226.9 228.3 33.5 74.5 19983 1766.8 458.7 817.0 805.8 11.2 231.4 225.7 34.0 92.0 19984 1804.6 470.6 829.8 807.2 22.6 237.4 221.4 45.4 65.8 19991 1793.9 474.6 830.7 820.5 10.2 240.4 213.9 34.3 105.4 19992 1822.1 478.2 840.8 830.6 10.2 243.8 225.0 34.3 106.1 19993 1841.7 482.1 851.0 840.8 10.2 247.3 227.1 34.3 109.7 19994 1859.0 486.0 861.3 851.1 10.2 250.8 226.6 34.3 111.0 20001 1877.6 490.1 871.7 861.5 10.2 254.3 227.1 34.3 113.5 20002 1898.4 494.4 882.3 872.1 10.2 258.0 229.4 34.3 114.8 20003 1919.3 498.8 893.0 882.8 10.2 261.6 231.5 34.3 116.5 20004 1939.3 503.4 903.8 893.6 10.2 265.3 232.5 34.3 120.3 20011 1967.6 508.1 921.2 911.0 10.2 270.5 233.5 34.3 116.7 20012 1997.0 512.9 938.9 928.7 10.2 275.7 235.2 34.3 112.3 20013 2026.7 517.9 956.9 946.7 10.2 281.1 236.5 34.3 107.9 20014 2056.6 522.9 975.3 965.1 10.2 286.6 237.5 34.3 103.2 20021 2087.5 528.1 994.1 983.9 10.2 292.1 239.0 34.3 97.8 20022 2119.4 533.3 1013.2 1003.0 10.2 297.8 240.8 34.3 91.8 20023 2151.8 538.6 1032.7 1022.5 10.2 303.6 242.6 34.3 85.5 20024 2184.8 544.0 1052.5 1042.3 10.2 309.5 244.5 34.3 79.0 20031 2218.4 549.5 1072.8 1062.6 10.2 315.5 246.4 34.3 72.3 20032 2252.9 555.0 1093.4 1083.2 10.2 321.6 248.5 34.3 65.3 20033 2287.9 560.7 1114.5 1104.3 10.2 327.9 250.6 34.3 58.3 20034 2323.0 566.4 1135.9 1125.7 10.2 334.2 252.2 34.3 51.6
Line 1 Receipts Line 2 Personal Tax and Nontax Receipts Line 6 Corporate Profit Tax Accruals Line 9 Indirect Business Tax and Nontax Accruals Line 13 Contributions for Social Insurance Line 14 Current Expenditures Line 15 Consumption Expenditures Line 16 Transfer Payments (net) Line 17 To Persons Line 18 To Rest of the World (net) Line 19 Grants-in-Aid to State and Local Governments Line 20 Net Interest Paid Line 25 Subsidies less Current Surplus of Government Enterprises Line 29 NIPA Surplus(+) or Deficit(-)
NIPA Table 3.3
NIPA Table 3.3
US Model Forecasts S&L Gov. Receipts and Expenditures
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Table 3.3 Quar. 1 2 6 7 11 12
19951 985.9 184.2 30.4 483.1 75.8 212.4 19952 996.1 186.3 31.0 486.0 76.4 216.4 19953 1001.9 190.8 32.9 490.4 76.8 211.0 19954 1007.1 194.4 32.2 495.3 77.1 208.1 19961 1025.3 197.1 32.7 504.0 77.2 214.3 19962 1048.0 201.9 33.4 511.3 77.6 223.8 19963 1049.2 205.6 33.3 513.3 78.0 219.0 19964 1058.4 209.7 32.8 519.1 78.4 218.4 19971 1075.2 213.9 34.9 526.5 79.2 220.7 19972 1084.5 216.7 35.4 529.5 79.7 223.2 19973 1100.9 222.1 37.3 536.9 80.2 224.4 19974 1116.5 226.9 36.5 540.7 80.6 231.8 19981 1123.3 230.4 35.1 548.0 81.1 228.7 19982 1133.7 237.2 35.4 552.5 81.7 226.9 19983 1152.3 244.6 35.7 558.2 82.4 231.4 19984 1183.1 248.9 34.5 579.1 83.2 237.4 19991 1191.1 252.8 35.3 578.3 84.3 240.4 19992 1208.8 257.2 36.0 586.7 85.1 243.8 19993 1225.0 260.7 36.3 594.8 85.8 247.3 19994 1240.5 263.7 36.3 603.1 86.6 250.8 20001 1256.5 266.9 36.5 611.4 87.4 254.3 20002 1272.7 270.3 36.7 619.6 88.2 258.0 20003 1289.1 273.9 36.9 627.8 89.0 261.6 20004 1306.1 277.5 37.2 636.3 89.8 265.3 20011 1324.6 281.3 37.5 644.8 90.6 270.5 20012 1343.3 285.1 37.8 653.3 91.4 275.7 20013 1362.2 289.0 38.2 661.7 92.2 281.1 20014 1381.2 292.8 38.5 670.2 93.0 286.6 20021 1400.3 296.8 38.8 678.8 93.9 292.1 20022 1419.8 300.7 39.2 687.3 94.7 297.8 20023 1439.4 304.7 39.6 696.0 95.6 303.6 20024 1459.3 308.6 40.1 704.7 96.5 309.5 20031 1479.5 312.6 40.6 713.5 97.3 315.5 20032 1499.9 316.6 41.2 722.4 98.2 321.6 20033 1520.7 320.6 41.8 731.4 99.1 327.9 20034 1541.8 324.7 42.4 740.4 100.0 334.2
Quar. 13 14 15 16 19 20 23 24
19951 875.4 684.8 275.2 -62.7 12.1 -9.8 0.0 110.5 19952 883.3 693.5 279.2 -67.4 12.3 -9.7 0.0 112.8 19953 889.0 698.4 283.4 -70.5 12.6 -9.7 0.0 112.9 19954 896.3 704.2 286.9 -72.1 12.8 -9.9 0.0 110.8 19961 908.1 712.6 289.6 -70.5 13.2 -10.4 0.0 117.2 19962 918.9 721.6 292.3 -70.7 13.6 -10.7 0.0 129.1 19963 926.8 727.8 294.9 -71.4 13.7 -10.8 0.0 122.4 19964 936.6 736.7 297.3 -72.5 14.0 -10.9 0.0 121.8 19971 946.8 747.2 299.7 -75.0 14.4 -10.7 0.0 128.4 19972 954.4 754.0 302.5 -76.7 14.8 -10.6 0.0 130.1 19973 964.3 762.2 305.5 -78.2 14.7 -10.5 0.0 136.6 19974 975.2 771.5 308.6 -79.5 15.1 -10.3 0.0 141.3 19981 983.0 776.7 312.6 -80.7 15.7 -9.9 0.0 140.3 19982 992.5 784.7 315.6 -82.2 16.0 -9.6 0.0 141.2 19983 1003.6 793.9 318.8 -83.7 16.0 -9.4 0.0 148.7 19984 1012.7 801.2 322.5 -85.3 16.6 -9.1 0.0 170.4 19991 1023.7 810.2 326.2 -86.9 16.8 -9.0 0.0 167.4 19992 1036.0 819.9 329.6 -87.5 17.0 -9.0 0.0 172.8 19993 1048.8 830.1 333.1 -88.2 17.2 -9.0 0.0 176.2 19994 1062.4 840.5 337.2 -88.8 17.4 -9.0 0.0 178.0 20001 1076.9 851.3 341.7 -89.5 17.6 -9.0 0.0 179.6 20002 1092.0 862.5 346.5 -90.2 17.9 -9.0 0.0 180.8 20003 1107.6 874.0 351.5 -90.8 18.1 -9.0 0.0 181.5 20004 1123.8 885.8 356.8 -91.5 18.3 -9.0 0.0 182.3 20011 1140.4 897.9 362.2 -92.2 18.5 -9.0 0.0 184.2 20012 1157.6 910.4 367.9 -92.9 18.7 -9.0 0.0 185.7 20013 1175.3 923.1 373.8 -93.6 19.0 -9.0 0.0 186.9 20014 1193.5 936.1 379.9 -94.3 19.2 -9.0 0.0 187.6 20021 1212.3 949.4 386.3 -95.0 19.4 -9.0 0.0 188.0 20022 1231.6 962.9 393.1 -95.7 19.7 -9.0 0.0 188.2 20023 1251.3 976.6 400.1 -96.4 19.9 -9.0 0.0 188.1 20024 1271.6 990.6 407.3 -97.1 20.2 -9.0 0.0 187.7 20031 1292.2 1004.7 414.7 -97.8 20.4 -9.0 0.0 187.3 20032 1313.2 1019.2 422.2 -98.5 20.7 -9.0 0.0 186.7 20033 1334.6 1033.8 429.9 -99.3 20.9 -9.0 0.0 186.1 20034 1356.3 1048.7 437.8 -100.0 21.2 -9.0 0.0 185.5
Line 1 Receipts Line 2 Personal Tax and Nontax Receipts Line 6 Corporate Profit Tax Accruals Line 7 Indirect Business Tax and Nontax Accruals Line 11 Contributions for Social Insurance Line 12 Federal Grants-in-Aid Line 13 Current Expenditures Line 14 Consumption Expenditures Line 15 Transfer Payments to Persons Line 16 Net Interest Paid Line 19 Less: Dividends Received by Government Line 20 Subsidies less Current Surplus of Government Enterprises Line 23 Less: Wage Accruals Less Disbursements Line 24 NIPA Surplus(+) or Deficit(-)
NIPA Table 7.1
NIPA Table 7.1
US Model Forecasts of Price Indexes for GDP
Index numbers, 1992=100
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Table 7.1 Quar. 4 8 12 16 20
19951 106.7 106.7 104.0 103.5 109.1 19952 107.2 107.3 103.9 103.9 110.0 19953 107.7 107.8 103.6 104.1 110.8 19954 108.3 108.3 103.4 104.3 111.5 19961 108.9 108.8 103.5 105.1 112.1 19962 109.2 109.5 102.8 106.0 112.9 19963 109.7 109.9 102.6 106.1 113.7 19964 110.2 110.6 102.1 107.0 114.5 19971 111.0 111.2 101.9 107.6 115.5 19972 111.4 111.6 100.9 107.5 116.3 19973 111.8 111.9 100.2 107.7 117.0 19974 112.1 112.2 99.6 108.0 117.6 19981 112.3 112.2 99.3 107.4 118.0 19982 112.6 112.4 98.7 107.4 118.5 19983 112.8 112.7 98.0 107.8 119.0 19984 113.1 112.9 97.4 108.1 119.6 19991 113.5 113.1 96.5 108.4 120.1 19992 113.9 113.5 96.9 108.8 120.5 19993 114.3 113.9 97.2 109.2 121.0 19994 114.8 114.3 97.6 109.6 121.4 20001 115.3 114.8 98.0 110.1 121.9 20002 115.8 115.2 98.4 110.5 122.4 20003 116.4 115.7 98.8 111.0 123.0 20004 116.9 116.3 99.3 111.5 123.6 20011 117.5 116.8 99.8 112.1 124.1 20012 118.1 117.4 100.2 112.6 124.8 20013 118.8 118.0 100.8 113.2 125.4 20014 119.4 118.6 101.3 113.8 126.0 20021 120.1 119.2 101.8 114.3 126.7 20022 120.8 119.9 102.3 114.9 127.3 20023 121.5 120.5 102.9 115.5 128.0 20024 122.3 121.1 103.4 116.2 128.7 20031 123.0 121.8 104.0 116.8 129.4 20032 123.7 122.5 104.5 117.4 130.1 20033 124.5 123.1 105.1 118.1 130.8 20034 125.2 123.8 105.7 118.7 131.5
Quar. 28 32 44 48 60 72
19951 104.4 102.2 110.2 103.1 101.0 107.0 19952 104.6 102.5 110.7 103.8 102.6 107.8 19953 104.8 102.5 111.1 103.6 101.8 108.3 19954 104.8 102.4 111.6 103.1 101.0 109.4 19961 104.6 101.9 112.0 102.8 100.3 110.6 19962 104.3 101.4 112.4 102.1 99.8 110.2 19963 104.6 101.4 113.6 101.4 98.7 110.8 19964 104.5 101.2 114.1 100.3 98.7 111.6 19971 104.3 100.8 114.8 100.1 97.4 112.6 19972 104.0 100.3 115.4 99.7 95.7 113.0 19973 104.0 100.0 116.5 99.4 95.2 113.2 19974 103.9 99.6 117.2 99.0 94.7 113.9 19981 103.3 98.9 117.2 98.1 92.2 114.2 19982 102.9 98.1 117.7 97.7 91.1 114.4 19983 102.5 97.2 118.7 97.0 90.0 114.8 19984 102.3 96.6 120.0 96.8 89.9 115.2 19991 102.1 96.1 120.3 96.6 89.1 116.1 19992 102.5 96.4 120.7 96.9 89.6 116.7 19993 102.8 96.8 121.1 97.2 90.0 117.3 19994 103.1 97.1 121.6 97.6 90.4 118.0 20001 103.4 97.5 122.1 98.0 90.9 118.7 20002 103.7 97.9 122.6 98.4 91.3 119.4 20003 104.1 98.4 123.1 98.8 91.8 120.2 20004 104.6 98.8 123.7 99.3 92.3 121.0 20011 105.0 99.3 124.3 99.8 92.7 121.8 20012 105.5 99.8 124.9 100.3 93.2 122.6 20013 106.0 100.3 125.5 100.8 93.6 123.5 20014 106.5 100.8 126.2 101.3 94.1 124.3 20021 107.1 101.3 126.8 101.8 94.6 125.2 20022 107.6 101.9 127.5 102.4 95.0 126.1 20023 108.2 102.4 128.2 102.9 95.5 127.0 20024 108.8 102.9 128.9 103.5 96.0 127.9 20031 109.4 103.5 129.6 104.0 96.5 128.9 20032 110.1 104.0 130.2 104.6 96.9 129.8 20033 110.7 104.6 131.0 105.2 97.4 130.8 20034 111.4 105.2 131.7 105.8 97.9 131.8
Line 4 Gross Domestic Product Line 8 Personal Consumption Expenditures Line 12 Durable Goods Line 16 Nondurable Goods Line 20 Services Line 28 Fixed Investment Line 32 Nonresidential Line 44 Residential Line 48 Exports of Goods and Services Line 60 Imports of Goods and Services Line 72 Government Consumption Expenditures and Gross Investment