US Forecast: July 30, 1999
Forecast Period

1999:3--2004:4 (22 quarters)

Data

The forecast is based on the national income and product accounts (NIPA) data that were released on July 29, 1999.

The Latest Version of the US Model

For purposes of this forecast the US model has been reestimated through 1999:2. These estimates are presented in the "Chapter 5 tables" at the end of The US Model Workbook. The rest of the specification of the model is in Appendix A at the end of this workbook.

A complete discussion of the November 3, 1998, version of the US model is in Macroeconometric Modeling, which is the main reference for this site. There are three specification changes for the latest version of the US model from the November 3, 1998, version. The first change, which also pertains to the January 30, 1999, and May 1, 1999, versions, is that the interest rate variable has been dropped from the fixed investment equation, equation 12. I have been unable to find significant cost of capital effects in the investment equation, and the (insignificant) interest rate variable that I had been using in this equation now has a coefficient estimate of the wrong sign. Alas. The second change, which also pertains to the May 1, 1999, version is that the lagged value of the asset variable, AA/POP, has been added to the durable expenditures equation, equation 3. It now appears possible to pick up a wealth effect on durable expenditures. The third change, which pertains only to the current version, is that the lagged value of the log of the asset variable, AA/POP, has been added to the consumption of services equation, equation 1. It also now appears possible to pick up a wealth effect on service consumption. See Model Versions and References for more discussion of the model versions.

Assumptions Behind the Forecast

Included on this site is an analysis of three economic plans that I did on September 4, 1996: An Analysis of the Clinton and Dole Economic Plans. The three plans were the latest (at the time) Congressional plan, the Clinton plan, and the Dole plan. The budget agreement that was eventually worked out by the Democrats and Republicans was closest to the original Clinton plan, although the spending cuts were not as large as the originally planned cuts. The following table gives for the key government policy variables in the model 1) the growth rates used for the current forecast, 2) the growth rates I used in analyzing the original Clinton plan, and 3) the actual growth rates between 1993:3 and 1999:2.

                 Growth Rates (annual rates)

            Current         Clinton          Actual     
           Forecast           Plan       1999:2-1993.3  

TRGH          5.0/8.0         4.3             4.3       
COG           2.0            -4.8            -0.7       
JG           -1.0            -4.8            -1.4       
TRGS          5.8/8.0         5.8             4.8       
TRSH          6.0             6.0             6.6       
COS           3.0             1.0             4.0       
JS            1.0             1.0             1.6       

Notes: 5.0/8.0 means 5.0% through 2000.4 and 8.0% thereafter.
       5.8/8.0 means 5.8% through 2000.4 and 8.0% thereafter. 

All tax rates are assumed to remain unchanged for the current forecast. It may help you to review the analysis of the Congressional and Clinton plans on the site to put the current assumptions in perspective, although this material is now somewhat dated.

If you examine the federal government surplus variable (SGP), you can see that the current fiscal-policy assumptions result in a surplus between about $150 and $200 billion throughout the forecast period. (Remember, this is with no tax cuts and no unusual government expenditure increases.)

No assumption about monetary policy is needed for the forecast because monetary policy is endogenous (equation 30, the interest rate reaction function). As can be seen from the second page of Table F1, the model is predicting the bill rate to rise to 5.1 percent by the beginning of 2000 and to 6.0 percent by the end of 2001.

The Results

The current forecasts for real growth (at an annual rate) in the next four quarters are 4.0, 2.9, 3.0, and 3.2 percent, respectively. The growth rate then falls to 2.1 percent by the middle of 2002 and remains at this value throughout the rest of the forecast period. The unemployment rate remains around 4 percent for the next two years and then rises after that. The inflation rate as measured by the growth of the GDP price index (GDPD) rises to 2.4 percent by the middle of 2001. The household savings rate (variable SRZ in the model) is forecast to be negative throughout the period. The U.S. current account deficit (variable -SR in the model) is large throughout the period.

You can examine the tables of this forecast memo for the details, or you can print out the forecast values from the base data set for the model. Although the model is used to forecast through 2004:4, you should not put much confidence on the results beyond about 2001. Forecast error bands are fairly large for predictions this far ahead.

Possible Experiments to Run

The present forecast is a good base from which to make alternative fiscal-policy assumptions, depending on what you think Congress might do in light of the rosy government budget picture. For example, there is currently considerable uncertainty about possible future tax cuts, and you can experiment with alternative tax-cut plans.

As a historical footnote, the model has consistently been more optimistic about the size of future federal government deficits than have most others, especially regarding future tax revenues, and the recent data suggest that the model has been right. The CBO and others have now moved in the optimistic direction. You may want to compare the current CBO forecasts with those from the model. My sense is that the model has conveyed useful information in the past about the deficit that was not in the CBO forecasts at the time. As noted above, it is now the case that the model is less optimistic than is CBO regarding future federal budget values.

You may also want to drop the interest rate reaction function (equation 30) and put in your own assumptions about Fed behavior. For example, do you think the Fed will raise interest rates more than the model predicts it will in response to what is happening in the economy.

You may want to modify the price equation (equation 10) to have it predict higher price levels. At some point one would expect to see large price level increases in response to a falling unemployment rate and output gap. Unfortunately, there are not enough observations at low unemployment rates and output gaps for the data to estimate this point precisely. It may be that there is not enough nonlinearity in equation 10 as it is estimated and thus that it is too optimistic about the future price path.

Finally, if you think the stock market might crash, you can, as explained in The US Model Workbook, put a crash in the model and examine the economic effects. One of the reasons the model is predicting a fairly good growth rate in the next year is because of the positive wealth effect on consumption due to the booming stock market. Maybe this won't last?

US Forecast Tables: May 1, 1999
Table F1: Forecasts of Selected Variables--Real GDP and Components
Table F1 (continued)--Prices and Wages
Table F1 (continued)--Money and Interest Rates
Table F1 (continued)--Employment and Labor Force
Table F1 (continued)--Other Endogenous
Table F1 (continued)--Selected Exogenous
Table F2: Forecasts of the Federal Government Budget
Table F3: Forecasts of the State and Local Government Budget
Table F4: Forecasts of Savings Flows
NIPA Table 1.1
NIPA Table 1.2
NIPA Table 3.2
NIPA Table 3.3
NIPA Table 7.1
Table F1: Forecasts of Selected Variables
Table F1
US Model Forecasts of Selected Variables
Real GDP and Components
Billions of 1992 Dollars

Quar. GDPR %Ch CS %Ch CN %Ch CD %Ch
19961 6882.0 3.3 2648.5 4.0 1433.5 2.2 611.0 5.8 19962 6983.9 6.1 2668.4 3.0 1450.4 4.8 629.5 12.7 19963 7020.0 2.1 2688.1 3.0 1454.7 1.2 626.5 -1.9 19964 7093.1 4.2 2701.7 2.0 1465.1 2.9 637.5 7.2 19971 7166.7 4.2 2722.1 3.1 1477.9 3.5 656.3 12.3 19972 7236.5 4.0 2743.6 3.2 1477.1 -0.2 653.8 -1.5 19973 7311.2 4.2 2775.4 4.7 1495.7 5.1 679.6 16.7 19974 7364.6 3.0 2804.8 4.3 1494.3 -0.4 684.8 3.1 19981 7464.7 5.5 2829.3 3.5 1521.2 7.4 710.3 15.7 19982 7498.6 1.8 2866.8 5.4 1540.9 5.3 729.4 11.2 19983 7566.5 3.7 2904.8 5.4 1549.1 2.1 733.7 2.4 19984 7677.7 6.0 2917.2 1.7 1565.1 4.2 775.0 24.5 19991 7759.6 4.3 2946.8 4.1 1600.9 9.5 798.9 12.9 19992 7803.6 2.3 2977.2 4.2 1612.7 3.0 809.8 5.6 19993 7880.9 4.0 3010.4 4.5 1629.5 4.2 823.7 7.0 19994 7937.9 2.9 3043.9 4.5 1645.1 3.9 835.1 5.7 20001 7996.0 3.0 3075.6 4.2 1658.7 3.3 845.3 4.9 20002 8060.1 3.2 3106.0 4.0 1670.1 2.8 853.5 4.0 20003 8118.1 2.9 3135.6 3.9 1680.3 2.5 860.2 3.1 20004 8171.0 2.6 3165.8 3.9 1690.0 2.3 864.8 2.2 20011 8225.4 2.7 3195.1 3.7 1698.5 2.0 868.5 1.7 20012 8278.0 2.6 3223.5 3.6 1706.2 1.8 871.6 1.4 20013 8328.2 2.4 3251.0 3.5 1713.4 1.7 874.1 1.1 20014 8376.3 2.3 3277.9 3.3 1720.2 1.6 876.1 0.9 20021 8422.9 2.2 3304.2 3.2 1726.9 1.6 877.9 0.8 20022 8468.4 2.2 3330.1 3.2 1733.6 1.6 879.6 0.8 20023 8513.3 2.1 3355.5 3.1 1740.4 1.6 881.2 0.7 20024 8557.9 2.1 3380.6 3.0 1747.2 1.6 882.9 0.8 20031 8602.3 2.1 3405.4 3.0 1754.2 1.6 884.7 0.8 20032 8646.8 2.1 3430.0 2.9 1761.4 1.6 886.6 0.9 20033 8691.4 2.1 3454.5 2.9 1768.7 1.7 888.7 0.9 20034 8736.2 2.1 3478.9 2.9 1776.1 1.7 890.9 1.0 20041 8781.2 2.1 3503.2 2.8 1783.7 1.7 893.3 1.1 20042 8826.5 2.1 3527.6 2.8 1791.5 1.8 895.9 1.2 20043 8872.3 2.1 3552.0 2.8 1799.4 1.8 898.7 1.3 20044 8918.6 2.1 3576.4 2.8 1807.5 1.8 901.7 1.3
Quar. IHH %Ch IKF %Ch IVF IM %Ch
19961 235.0 12.9 634.8 16.3 14.4 929.1 13.1 19962 245.7 19.5 647.2 8.0 26.1 958.9 13.5 19963 244.6 -1.7 666.4 12.4 47.5 990.0 13.6 19964 242.2 -3.8 689.1 14.3 32.1 1007.0 7.0 19971 245.6 5.7 699.5 6.2 56.3 1050.9 18.6 19972 249.2 6.0 725.7 15.8 79.0 1095.2 18.0 19973 249.1 -0.3 757.7 18.9 51.0 1130.5 13.5 19974 254.0 8.2 761.0 1.7 66.5 1147.8 6.3 19981 263.3 15.6 804.7 25.0 91.4 1190.4 15.7 19982 272.7 15.0 831.6 14.0 38.2 1217.3 9.4 19983 279.2 9.9 828.9 -1.3 55.7 1224.3 2.3 19984 286.1 10.2 860.1 15.9 44.2 1259.6 12.0 19991 296.6 15.4 879.2 9.2 38.7 1300.1 13.5 19992 300.3 5.1 902.0 10.8 19.4 1330.6 9.7 19993 295.7 -5.9 918.3 7.4 39.9 1348.3 5.4 19994 291.5 -5.7 931.9 6.1 45.2 1365.6 5.2 20001 286.9 -6.1 943.0 4.9 39.1 1382.2 4.9 20002 282.5 -6.0 954.6 5.0 42.8 1398.1 4.7 20003 278.3 -5.9 964.5 4.2 44.6 1413.2 4.4 20004 274.3 -5.6 972.5 3.3 43.8 1427.5 4.1 20011 271.1 -4.6 979.3 2.8 42.3 1441.4 3.9 20012 268.5 -3.7 984.6 2.2 41.6 1454.8 3.8 20013 266.5 -2.9 988.1 1.4 40.7 1467.9 3.7 20014 265.1 -2.2 990.1 0.8 39.6 1480.7 3.5 20021 264.2 -1.3 990.4 0.1 38.3 1493.1 3.4 20022 263.9 -0.5 989.2 -0.5 36.9 1505.3 3.3 20023 264.1 0.3 986.5 -1.1 35.6 1517.4 3.2 20024 264.8 1.1 982.6 -1.6 34.6 1529.3 3.2 20031 266.0 1.7 977.4 -2.1 33.8 1541.3 3.2 20032 267.5 2.4 971.3 -2.5 33.1 1553.3 3.2 20033 269.4 2.9 964.2 -2.9 32.7 1565.4 3.2 20034 271.6 3.3 956.4 -3.2 32.5 1577.6 3.2 20041 274.1 3.7 947.9 -3.5 32.3 1590.1 3.2 20042 276.7 4.0 938.9 -3.7 32.3 1602.8 3.2 20043 279.6 4.2 929.5 -3.9 32.3 1615.8 3.3 20044 282.7 4.4 919.9 -4.1 32.4 1629.1 3.3
GDPR Real GDP CS Consumption - Services CN Consumption - Nondurables CD Consumption - Durables IHH Residential Investment IKF Nonresidential Investment IVF Inventory Investment IM Imports %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Prices and Wages - %Ch
                                                                         

Quar. GDPD PF WF WR
19961 2.3 1.9 4.4 2.5 19962 1.2 1.7 4.4 2.7 19963 1.8 1.8 3.4 1.6 19964 1.8 1.1 2.1 1.0 19971 2.8 4.5 1.9 -2.4 19972 1.6 1.7 3.2 1.4 19973 1.2 1.6 5.1 3.4 19974 1.2 1.3 4.1 2.8 19981 0.8 1.1 4.7 3.6 19982 0.9 1.2 5.6 4.3 19983 1.0 1.3 4.8 3.4 19984 0.8 -0.3 5.2 5.6 19991 1.6 2.6 5.6 2.9 19992 1.6 1.9 6.0 4.1 19993 1.8 1.8 2.9 1.0 19994 2.0 1.9 3.0 1.1 20001 2.1 2.0 3.1 1.1 20002 2.1 2.1 3.3 1.1 20003 2.2 2.1 3.4 1.2 20004 2.3 2.2 3.4 1.2 20011 2.3 2.2 3.5 1.3 20012 2.3 2.2 3.5 1.3 20013 2.4 2.2 3.6 1.3 20014 2.4 2.2 3.6 1.3 20021 2.4 2.2 3.6 1.4 20022 2.4 2.2 3.7 1.4 20023 2.4 2.2 3.7 1.4 20024 2.4 2.2 3.7 1.4 20031 2.4 2.2 3.7 1.4 20032 2.4 2.2 3.7 1.5 20033 2.4 2.2 3.7 1.5 20034 2.4 2.2 3.7 1.5 20041 2.4 2.2 3.8 1.5 20042 2.5 2.3 3.8 1.5 20043 2.5 2.3 3.8 1.5 20044 2.5 2.3 3.8 1.5
GDPD GDP Price Index PF Firm Sector Price Index WF Nominal Wage Rate WR Real Wage Rate %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Money and Interest Rates
                                                                         

Quar. RS RB RM M1 %Ch UBR
19961 4.9 7.0 7.6 1195.3 -1.7 66.3 19962 5.0 7.6 8.5 1201.4 2.0 67.7 19963 5.1 7.6 8.6 1215.8 4.9 68.6 19964 5.0 7.2 8.1 1204.9 -3.5 69.6 19971 5.1 7.4 8.2 1224.8 6.8 62.9 19972 5.1 7.6 8.2 1240.8 5.3 68.1 19973 5.1 7.2 7.7 1232.8 -2.6 71.4 19974 5.1 6.9 7.4 1249.6 5.6 73.8 19981 5.1 6.7 7.1 1265.9 5.3 71.1 19982 5.0 6.6 7.2 1278.4 4.0 69.8 19983 4.8 6.5 7.0 1286.7 2.6 76.1 19984 4.3 6.3 6.9 1312.2 8.2 68.4 19991 4.4 6.4 7.1 1324.3 3.7 70.5 19992 4.5 6.9 7.3 1322.9 -0.4 70.4 19993 4.6 7.1 7.3 1343.4 6.3 70.5 19994 4.9 7.1 7.5 1362.8 5.9 71.1 20001 5.1 7.2 7.6 1381.3 5.5 71.7 20002 5.3 7.2 7.8 1399.0 5.2 72.4 20003 5.5 7.3 7.9 1415.9 4.9 72.9 20004 5.6 7.4 8.0 1432.2 4.7 73.5 20011 5.8 7.4 8.2 1448.0 4.5 74.0 20012 5.9 7.5 8.3 1463.3 4.3 74.5 20013 5.9 7.6 8.4 1478.3 4.2 74.9 20014 6.0 7.6 8.5 1492.9 4.0 75.4 20021 6.0 7.7 8.6 1507.4 3.9 75.8 20022 6.0 7.7 8.6 1521.6 3.8 76.2 20023 6.0 7.8 8.7 1535.8 3.8 76.7 20024 5.9 7.8 8.7 1549.9 3.7 77.1 20031 5.8 7.8 8.7 1563.9 3.7 77.5 20032 5.8 7.8 8.7 1578.0 3.6 77.9 20033 5.7 7.8 8.7 1592.1 3.6 78.4 20034 5.5 7.7 8.6 1606.3 3.6 78.8 20041 5.4 7.7 8.6 1620.7 3.6 79.3 20042 5.3 7.6 8.5 1635.2 3.6 79.7 20043 5.1 7.6 8.4 1649.8 3.6 80.2 20044 5.0 7.5 8.3 1664.7 3.7 80.7
RS Bill Rate RB Bond Rate RM Mortgage Rate M1 Money Supply UBR Unborrowed Reserves %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Employment and Labor Force
                                                                         

Quar. 100UR L1 L2 L3 JF E U %Ch %Ch %Ch %Ch %Ch mill.
19961 5.5 2.3 1.0 -0.6 2.1 1.2 7.4 19962 5.5 1.9 2.4 1.5 2.2 2.2 7.3 19963 5.3 1.8 2.9 0.9 2.7 2.8 7.1 19964 5.3 1.3 2.8 2.4 2.6 1.9 7.2 19971 5.2 1.9 0.9 4.3 3.2 2.6 7.1 19972 5.0 0.6 1.5 1.9 2.1 2.3 6.8 19973 4.9 1.2 2.6 -0.9 1.5 1.5 6.6 19974 4.7 0.1 -1.7 5.2 2.8 1.7 6.4 19981 4.6 0.8 1.2 3.0 2.4 1.7 6.4 19982 4.4 -0.1 -0.8 1.4 2.7 1.0 6.1 19983 4.5 0.0 0.8 2.1 2.0 0.4 6.2 19984 4.4 1.6 1.0 3.0 1.3 2.3 6.1 19991 4.3 1.5 2.7 3.0 0.8 2.9 6.0 19992 4.3 -1.3 -0.2 2.4 1.9 0.2 5.9 19993 4.1 1.3 2.5 2.1 2.5 2.4 5.8 19994 4.1 1.3 2.5 2.1 2.3 2.3 5.7 20001 4.0 1.2 2.5 2.1 2.2 2.2 5.6 20002 3.9 1.2 2.5 2.1 2.3 2.2 5.6 20003 3.9 1.2 2.5 2.1 2.1 2.0 5.5 20004 3.9 1.2 2.5 2.1 1.9 1.9 5.6 20011 3.9 1.2 2.5 2.1 1.8 1.8 5.7 20012 4.0 1.2 2.5 2.1 1.7 1.6 5.8 20013 4.1 1.2 2.5 2.1 1.6 1.5 5.9 20014 4.2 1.2 2.5 2.2 1.5 1.4 6.1 20021 4.3 1.2 2.5 2.2 1.4 1.3 6.4 20022 4.5 1.2 2.5 2.2 1.3 1.2 6.6 20023 4.7 1.2 2.5 2.2 1.2 1.1 6.9 20024 4.9 1.2 2.5 2.2 1.1 1.0 7.3 20031 5.1 1.2 2.5 2.2 1.0 1.0 7.6 20032 5.3 1.1 2.4 2.2 1.0 1.0 8.0 20033 5.5 1.1 2.4 2.1 1.0 1.0 8.3 20034 5.7 1.1 2.4 2.1 0.9 1.0 8.6 20041 5.9 1.1 2.4 2.1 0.9 1.1 8.9 20042 6.0 1.1 2.4 2.1 0.9 1.1 9.2 20043 6.2 1.1 2.3 2.1 0.9 1.1 9.5 20044 6.4 1.1 2.3 2.0 0.9 1.1 9.8
UR Unemployment Rate L1 Labor Force, Men 25-54 L2 Labor Force, Women 25-54 L3 Labor Force, All Others 16+ JF Jobs, Firm Sector E Total Employment U Total Unemployment %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Other Endogenous Variables
                                                                         

Quar. CG PIEF PIEF 100SRZ PROD SR SGP SSP %Ch %Ch
19961 1903.3 553.3 4.5 3.5 3.2 97.8 -150.0 117.2 19962 1110.8 566.6 10.0 2.8 3.4 114.9 -112.6 129.1 19963 1179.0 570.3 2.6 3.3 0.3 146.1 -100.2 122.4 19964 2994.8 587.6 12.7 2.9 2.3 117.8 -78.4 121.8 19971 472.3 584.8 -1.9 2.5 -1.0 130.9 -51.2 128.4 19972 5760.7 601.1 11.6 2.8 1.4 123.9 -34.9 130.1 19973 3910.8 630.5 21.0 1.8 3.1 140.9 -0.3 136.6 19974 917.4 601.5 -17.2 1.8 0.1 167.8 2.2 141.3 19981 6072.0 582.5 -12.0 1.3 3.1 175.5 58.8 140.3 19982 438.0 588.7 4.3 0.5 0.0 214.8 74.5 141.2 19983 -5906.9 587.2 -1.0 0.3 2.6 231.8 92.0 148.7 19984 10184.8 575.1 -8.0 0.1 4.3 228.4 65.8 170.4 19991 2287.1 606.3 23.5 -0.8 3.7 254.8 122.7 169.8 19992 400.0 597.9 -5.4 -1.2 2.2 284.8 133.6 169.2 19993 304.7 632.6 25.3 -1.8 1.6 310.1 150.3 174.2 19994 369.0 640.4 5.0 -2.2 1.0 334.9 158.8 178.2 20001 388.9 650.6 6.5 -2.6 1.1 339.8 167.6 181.2 20002 374.9 664.2 8.6 -2.9 1.4 343.8 178.0 183.9 20003 370.2 673.8 5.9 -3.1 1.2 346.8 187.6 185.5 20004 370.8 681.5 4.7 -3.4 1.1 348.7 197.1 186.2 20011 365.9 691.7 6.1 -3.4 1.3 345.1 199.5 187.8 20012 364.6 701.4 5.7 -3.5 1.3 340.7 200.9 188.9 20013 371.3 710.5 5.3 -3.5 1.2 335.5 202.1 189.3 20014 380.7 719.8 5.3 -3.6 1.2 329.5 203.1 189.2 20021 391.2 729.0 5.2 -3.6 1.3 322.8 203.1 188.6 20022 403.1 738.9 5.6 -3.6 1.3 315.6 202.4 187.7 20023 416.3 750.1 6.2 -3.6 1.3 307.7 201.6 186.5 20024 430.6 762.8 6.9 -3.6 1.4 299.3 200.4 185.0 20031 445.2 776.9 7.6 -3.6 1.4 290.5 199.3 183.3 20032 460.0 792.6 8.3 -3.5 1.4 281.2 197.8 181.6 20033 474.6 809.7 8.9 -3.5 1.4 271.5 196.8 179.9 20034 489.2 828.1 9.4 -3.6 1.4 261.4 196.3 178.2 20041 503.5 847.9 9.9 -3.6 1.5 250.9 196.2 176.4 20042 517.3 869.2 10.5 -3.6 1.5 240.2 195.9 174.8 20043 530.4 892.1 10.9 -3.6 1.5 229.2 195.9 173.2 20044 543.0 916.9 11.6 -3.6 1.5 217.9 196.2 171.7
CG Capital Gains PIEF Profits SRZ Saving Rate PROD Productivity SR Savings-Foreign Sector SGP Federal Budget Deficit(-), NIPA SSP S&L Budget Deficit(-), NIPA %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Selected Exogenous Variables
                                                                         

Quar. COG COS EX TRGH TRGH PIM %Ch %Ch %Ch %Ch %Ch
19961 17.3 3.8 3.7 738.8 11.0 -2.6 19962 12.8 5.9 5.8 746.9 4.5 -2.1 19963 -6.9 0.5 2.1 750.7 2.1 -4.4 19964 -7.6 9.2 32.1 755.8 2.7 0.1 19971 -4.3 11.5 8.3 773.9 9.9 -5.2 19972 9.8 -0.6 15.6 777.3 1.8 -6.8 19973 -1.2 3.8 10.6 781.2 2.0 -1.9 19974 1.1 0.7 4.4 784.4 1.6 -2.0 19981 -17.2 2.6 -2.7 798.6 7.4 -10.4 19982 16.9 0.9 -7.7 802.1 1.8 -4.6 19983 -3.0 4.8 -2.8 805.8 1.9 -4.8 19984 16.5 0.4 19.7 807.2 0.7 -0.2 19991 -1.9 18.4 -5.1 820.5 6.8 -3.3 19992 -3.8 -3.1 4.5 823.7 1.6 4.0 19993 2.0 3.0 -3.0 833.8 5.0 2.0 19994 2.0 3.0 -3.0 844.0 5.0 2.0 20001 2.0 3.0 5.0 854.4 5.0 2.0 20002 2.0 3.0 5.0 864.9 5.0 2.0 20003 2.0 3.0 5.0 875.5 5.0 2.0 20004 2.0 3.0 5.0 886.2 5.0 2.0 20011 2.0 3.0 7.0 903.5 8.0 2.0 20012 2.0 3.0 7.0 921.0 8.0 2.0 20013 2.0 3.0 7.0 938.9 8.0 2.0 20014 2.0 3.0 7.0 957.1 8.0 2.0 20021 2.0 3.0 7.0 975.7 8.0 2.0 20022 2.0 3.0 7.0 994.7 8.0 2.0 20023 2.0 3.0 7.0 1014.0 8.0 2.0 20024 2.0 3.0 7.0 1033.7 8.0 2.0 20031 2.0 3.0 7.0 1053.8 8.0 2.0 20032 2.0 3.0 7.0 1074.3 8.0 2.0 20033 2.0 3.0 7.0 1095.1 8.0 2.0 20034 2.0 3.0 7.0 1116.4 8.0 2.0 20041 2.0 3.0 7.0 1138.1 8.0 2.0 20042 2.0 3.0 7.0 1160.2 8.0 2.0 20043 2.0 3.0 7.0 1182.7 8.0 2.0 20044 2.0 3.0 7.0 1205.7 8.0 2.0
COG Real Federal Purchases of Goods COS Real S&L Purchases of Goods EX Exports TRGH Nominal Federal Transfer Payments PIM Import Price Index %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F2: Forecasts of the Federal Government Budget
Table F2
US Model Forecasts of the Federal Government Budget
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Quar. RECG TFG TCG IBTG SIG
19961 1529.9 652.6 191.2 89.9 596.2 19962 1581.8 691.4 195.2 88.5 606.7 19963 1593.6 693.8 194.3 90.5 615.0 19964 1633.5 710.0 191.4 109.2 622.9 19971 1671.1 741.7 203.9 90.7 634.8 19972 1703.5 759.1 206.5 95.5 642.4 19973 1739.6 776.9 217.0 95.1 650.6 19974 1765.5 798.6 212.8 93.8 660.3 19981 1809.1 836.5 204.8 93.9 673.9 19982 1838.3 855.7 206.2 95.2 681.2 19983 1858.8 863.8 207.5 98.3 689.2 19984 1870.4 875.9 201.0 96.0 697.5 19991 1914.8 891.3 213.8 95.7 714.0 19992 1938.3 908.8 211.8 96.0 721.7 19993 1967.8 919.7 219.9 97.5 730.6 19994 1992.7 932.5 221.7 99.1 739.5 20001 2018.3 945.3 224.1 100.5 748.3 20002 2046.0 959.1 227.3 102.0 757.6 20003 2072.5 972.7 229.5 103.4 766.9 20004 2097.7 985.7 231.3 104.7 775.9 20011 2123.8 998.9 233.7 106.1 785.1 20012 2149.9 1012.2 236.0 107.4 794.3 20013 2175.5 1025.3 238.1 108.7 803.4 20014 2200.8 1038.2 240.3 110.0 812.4 20021 2226.1 1051.1 242.4 111.3 821.4 20022 2251.5 1063.9 244.7 112.5 830.3 20023 2277.1 1076.7 247.3 113.8 839.3 20024 2303.0 1089.4 250.3 115.1 848.3 20031 2329.4 1102.1 253.6 116.4 857.3 20032 2356.3 1115.0 257.2 117.7 866.4 20033 2383.7 1127.8 261.2 119.0 875.6 20034 2411.5 1140.7 265.5 120.3 885.0 20041 2439.8 1153.6 270.1 121.7 894.4 20042 2468.9 1166.7 275.1 123.1 904.0 20043 2498.6 1180.1 280.5 124.4 913.7 20044 2529.1 1193.5 286.2 125.9 923.5
Quar. EXPG PUG-IGZ TRGH TRGR TRGS INTG SUBG SGP
19961 1679.9 445.7 738.8 19.0 214.3 227.7 34.4 -150.0 19962 1694.4 453.1 746.9 11.0 223.8 226.1 33.5 -112.6 19963 1693.8 452.9 750.7 11.8 219.0 228.6 30.8 -100.2 19964 1711.9 451.8 755.8 22.8 218.4 231.1 32.0 -78.4 19971 1722.3 456.8 773.9 9.5 220.7 229.4 32.0 -51.2 19972 1738.4 464.8 777.3 9.9 223.2 231.6 31.6 -34.9 19973 1739.9 460.0 781.2 9.9 224.4 231.9 32.5 -0.3 19974 1763.3 460.1 784.4 21.5 231.8 231.8 33.7 2.2 19981 1750.3 450.9 798.6 9.9 228.7 228.8 33.4 58.8 19982 1763.8 464.0 802.1 9.0 226.9 228.3 33.5 74.5 19983 1766.8 458.7 805.8 11.2 231.4 225.7 34.0 92.0 19984 1804.6 470.6 807.2 22.6 237.4 221.4 45.4 65.8 19991 1792.1 471.8 820.5 9.9 241.1 214.3 34.5 122.7 19992 1804.7 469.8 823.7 10.7 245.4 214.9 40.2 133.6 19993 1817.5 473.8 833.8 10.7 248.9 210.1 40.2 150.3 19994 1834.0 477.9 844.0 10.7 252.4 208.7 40.2 158.8 20001 1850.8 482.2 854.4 10.7 256.0 207.3 40.2 167.6 20002 1868.0 486.7 864.9 10.7 259.6 205.9 40.2 178.0 20003 1884.9 491.3 875.5 10.7 263.3 203.8 40.2 187.6 20004 1900.6 496.1 886.2 10.7 267.1 200.3 40.2 197.1 20011 1924.3 501.0 903.5 10.7 272.2 196.8 40.2 199.5 20012 1948.9 505.9 921.0 10.7 277.5 193.5 40.2 200.9 20013 1973.4 511.0 938.9 10.7 282.9 189.6 40.2 202.1 20014 1997.8 516.1 957.1 10.7 288.4 185.2 40.2 203.1 20021 2023.0 521.3 975.7 10.7 294.0 181.0 40.2 203.1 20022 2049.1 526.6 994.7 10.7 299.7 177.2 40.2 202.4 20023 2075.5 531.9 1014.0 10.7 305.6 173.2 40.2 201.6 20024 2102.6 537.3 1033.7 10.7 311.5 169.2 40.2 200.4 20031 2130.1 542.7 1053.8 10.7 317.5 165.2 40.2 199.3 20032 2158.6 548.2 1074.3 10.7 323.7 161.5 40.2 197.8 20033 2186.8 553.8 1095.1 10.7 330.0 157.0 40.2 196.8 20034 2215.2 559.4 1116.4 10.7 336.4 152.0 40.2 196.3 20041 2243.6 565.1 1138.1 10.7 342.9 146.6 40.2 196.2 20042 2272.9 570.8 1160.2 10.7 349.6 141.4 40.2 195.9 20043 2302.8 576.7 1182.7 10.7 356.4 136.0 40.2 195.9 20044 2333.0 582.6 1205.7 10.7 363.3 130.4 40.2 196.2
RECG Total Receipts TPG Personal Tax TCG Corporate Tax IBTG Indirect Business Tax SIG Social Insurance Contributions EXPG Total Current Expenditures PUG-IGZ Consumption Expenditures TRGH Transfer Payments to Persons TRGR Transfer Payments to Rest of the World TRGS Grants in Aid to S&L Governments INTG Net Interest Paid SUBG Subsidies less Current Surplus SGP NIPA Surplus(+) or Deficit(-)
Table F3: Forecasts of the State and Local Government Budget
Table F3
US Model Forecasts of the S&L Government Budget
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Quar. RECS TFS TCS IBTS SIS TRGS
19961 1025.3 197.1 32.7 504.0 77.2 214.3 19962 1048.0 201.9 33.4 511.3 77.6 223.8 19963 1049.2 205.6 33.3 513.3 78.0 219.0 19964 1058.4 209.7 32.8 519.1 78.4 218.4 19971 1075.2 213.9 34.9 526.5 79.2 220.7 19972 1084.5 216.7 35.4 529.5 79.7 223.2 19973 1100.9 222.1 37.3 536.9 80.2 224.4 19974 1116.5 226.9 36.5 540.7 80.6 231.8 19981 1123.3 230.4 35.1 548.0 81.1 228.7 19982 1133.7 237.2 35.4 552.5 81.7 226.9 19983 1152.3 244.6 35.7 558.2 82.4 231.4 19984 1183.1 248.9 34.5 579.1 83.2 237.4 19991 1192.9 252.8 36.9 577.9 84.2 241.1 19992 1206.6 253.3 36.6 586.3 85.0 245.4 19993 1224.8 256.4 38.0 595.7 85.8 248.9 19994 1242.4 260.1 38.3 605.0 86.5 252.4 20001 1259.9 263.8 38.7 614.1 87.3 256.0 20002 1277.5 267.8 39.2 622.8 88.1 259.6 20003 1294.7 271.7 39.6 631.2 88.9 263.3 20004 1311.7 275.4 39.9 639.6 89.7 267.1 20011 1330.1 279.2 40.3 647.8 90.5 272.2 20012 1348.5 283.1 40.7 655.9 91.3 277.5 20013 1366.8 286.8 41.1 663.8 92.1 282.9 20014 1385.0 290.5 41.5 671.6 93.0 288.4 20021 1403.4 294.2 41.8 679.4 93.8 294.0 20022 1421.8 298.0 42.2 687.2 94.7 299.7 20023 1440.4 301.6 42.7 695.0 95.5 305.6 20024 1459.2 305.3 43.2 702.9 96.4 311.5 20031 1478.3 309.0 43.8 710.7 97.3 317.5 20032 1497.6 312.7 44.4 718.7 98.1 323.7 20033 1517.2 316.3 45.1 726.8 99.0 330.0 20034 1537.1 320.1 45.8 734.9 99.9 336.4 20041 1557.4 323.8 46.6 743.2 100.8 342.9 20042 1578.0 327.6 47.5 751.5 101.8 349.6 20043 1598.9 331.4 48.4 760.0 102.7 356.4 20044 1620.3 335.3 49.4 768.6 103.6 363.3
Quar. EXPS PUS-ISZ TRSH INTS DRS SUBS SSP
19961 908.1 712.6 289.6 -70.5 13.2 -10.4 117.2 19962 918.9 721.6 292.3 -70.7 13.6 -10.7 129.1 19963 926.8 727.8 294.9 -71.4 13.7 -10.8 122.4 19964 936.6 736.7 297.3 -72.5 14.0 -10.9 121.8 19971 946.8 747.2 299.7 -75.0 14.4 -10.7 128.4 19972 954.4 754.0 302.5 -76.7 14.8 -10.6 130.1 19973 964.3 762.2 305.5 -78.2 14.7 -10.5 136.6 19974 975.2 771.5 308.6 -79.5 15.1 -10.3 141.3 19981 983.0 776.7 312.6 -80.7 15.7 -9.9 140.3 19982 992.5 784.7 315.6 -82.2 16.0 -9.6 141.2 19983 1003.6 793.9 318.8 -83.7 16.0 -9.4 148.7 19984 1012.7 801.2 322.5 -85.3 16.6 -9.1 170.4 19991 1023.1 810.2 325.7 -87.0 16.8 -9.0 169.8 19992 1037.4 822.9 329.1 -88.8 17.0 -8.8 169.2 19993 1050.5 833.3 332.7 -89.5 17.2 -8.8 174.2 19994 1064.2 844.2 336.4 -90.1 17.4 -8.8 178.2 20001 1078.6 855.4 340.5 -90.8 17.6 -8.8 181.2 20002 1093.6 867.1 344.7 -91.5 17.9 -8.8 183.9 20003 1109.2 879.1 349.1 -92.1 18.1 -8.8 185.5 20004 1125.5 891.4 354.0 -92.8 18.3 -8.8 186.2 20011 1142.3 904.0 359.1 -93.5 18.5 -8.8 187.8 20012 1159.6 916.9 364.5 -94.2 18.7 -8.8 188.9 20013 1177.5 930.0 370.2 -94.9 19.0 -8.8 189.3 20014 1195.9 943.3 376.2 -95.6 19.2 -8.8 189.2 20021 1214.7 956.8 382.5 -96.3 19.4 -8.8 188.6 20022 1234.1 970.6 389.1 -97.0 19.7 -8.8 187.7 20023 1254.0 984.5 396.0 -97.8 19.9 -8.8 186.5 20024 1274.3 998.6 403.1 -98.5 20.2 -8.8 185.0 20031 1295.0 1012.9 410.5 -99.2 20.4 -8.8 183.3 20032 1316.0 1027.4 418.0 -99.9 20.7 -8.8 181.6 20033 1337.3 1042.1 425.6 -100.7 20.9 -8.8 179.9 20034 1359.0 1057.0 433.4 -101.4 21.2 -8.8 178.2 20041 1380.9 1072.2 441.2 -102.2 21.4 -8.8 176.4 20042 1403.2 1087.5 449.1 -102.9 21.7 -8.8 174.8 20043 1425.7 1103.1 457.1 -103.7 22.0 -8.8 173.2 20044 1448.6 1118.9 465.2 -104.5 22.2 -8.8 171.7
RECS Total Receipts TPS Personal Tax TCS Corporate Tax IBTS Indirect Business Tax SIS Social Insurance Contributions TRGS Grants in Aid from Federal Government EXPS Total Current Expenditures PUS-ISZ Consumption Expenditures TRSH Transfer Payments to Persons INTS Net Interest Paid DRS Dividends Received SUBS Subsidies less Current Surplus SSP NIPA Surplus(+) or Deficit(-)
Table F4 Forecasts of Savings Flows
Table F4
US Model Forecasts of Savings Flows
Savings by Sector
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Quar. SH SF SB SR SG SS
19961 123.3 27.4 1.4 97.8 -237.6 -12.3 19962 46.3 14.6 -5.2 114.9 -157.2 -13.4 19963 66.8 -46.5 -15.4 146.1 -136.0 -15.0 19964 76.9 -15.4 -15.2 117.8 -123.5 -40.5 19971 31.1 -64.8 9.9 130.9 -72.8 -34.4 19972 78.9 -95.4 13.7 123.9 -58.2 -62.9 19973 38.6 -95.1 15.5 140.9 -40.8 -59.2 19974 -12.5 -128.1 18.8 167.8 -40.4 -5.5 19981 -84.8 -157.9 21.8 175.5 43.5 2.0 19982 -114.2 -158.3 20.2 214.8 44.3 -6.8 19983 -135.8 -175.4 23.2 231.8 53.1 3.1 19984 -147.0 -146.6 23.9 228.4 17.9 23.4 19991 -232.1 -160.3 30.3 254.8 99.3 8.0 19992 -265.0 -170.1 28.5 284.8 111.5 10.2 19993 -298.6 -184.6 28.6 310.1 128.2 16.4 19994 -323.0 -198.5 28.6 334.9 136.6 21.4 20001 -343.8 -195.7 28.7 339.8 145.4 25.6 20002 -357.4 -200.3 28.8 343.8 155.9 29.3 20003 -369.3 -203.9 28.9 346.8 165.5 32.0 20004 -382.8 -203.7 29.0 348.7 174.9 33.9 20011 -388.1 -200.0 29.0 345.1 177.3 36.7 20012 -391.5 -196.0 29.1 340.7 178.7 38.9 20013 -394.5 -190.6 29.2 335.5 179.9 40.5 20014 -397.5 -183.6 29.3 329.5 180.9 41.6 20021 -400.2 -175.1 29.3 322.8 180.9 42.2 20022 -402.9 -164.8 29.4 315.6 180.2 42.5 20023 -406.1 -152.8 29.4 307.7 179.3 42.5 20024 -410.0 -139.3 29.4 299.3 178.2 42.3 20031 -414.4 -124.4 29.4 290.5 177.1 41.9 20032 -419.3 -108.3 29.4 281.2 175.5 41.5 20033 -425.3 -91.2 29.4 271.5 174.6 41.1 20034 -432.0 -73.4 29.3 261.4 174.1 40.7 20041 -439.6 -54.9 29.3 250.9 173.9 40.3 20042 -447.5 -35.6 29.2 240.2 173.7 40.0 20043 -456.0 -15.7 29.1 229.2 173.6 39.8 20044 -465.4 4.8 29.0 217.9 173.9 39.7 SH Saving, Households SF Saving, Firms SB Saving, Financial SR Saving, Foreign SG Saving, Federal SS Saving, State and Local
NIPA Table 1.1
NIPA Table 1.1
US Model Forecasts Gross Domestic Product
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Table 1.1 Quar. 1 2 3 4 5
19961 7495.3 5108.1 632.3 1506.8 2969.0 19962 7629.2 5198.9 647.3 1537.9 3013.7 19963 7703.4 5242.4 642.5 1543.6 3056.3 19964 7818.4 5313.3 651.1 1568.3 3093.9 19971 7954.9 5402.5 668.9 1589.7 3143.9 19972 8063.4 5438.8 659.9 1588.2 3190.7 19973 8170.9 5540.4 681.2 1611.3 3247.9 19974 8254.5 5593.2 682.2 1613.2 3297.8 19981 8384.1 5676.4 705.1 1633.1 3338.2 19982 8440.4 5773.7 720.1 1655.2 3398.4 19983 8537.8 5846.6 718.9 1670.0 3457.7 19984 8681.2 5934.7 754.5 1691.3 3488.9 19991 8808.6 6050.6 771.2 1736.0 3543.4 19992 8893.4 6148.3 777.6 1771.3 3599.4 19993 9021.0 6247.4 794.4 1797.6 3655.4 19994 9130.8 6344.9 809.1 1823.0 3712.8 20001 9244.6 6439.6 822.9 1847.0 3769.7 20002 9367.3 6530.6 835.1 1869.2 3826.3 20003 9486.1 6619.1 846.0 1890.3 3882.9 20004 9601.6 6707.2 855.0 1911.2 3940.9 20011 9720.8 6793.3 863.3 1931.2 3998.8 20012 9839.8 6877.8 871.1 1950.5 4056.2 20013 9957.5 6961.0 878.3 1969.4 4113.3 20014 10074.4 7043.2 885.2 1988.0 4170.0 20021 10190.6 7125.0 891.9 2006.7 4226.4 20022 10306.7 7206.7 898.5 2025.5 4282.7 20023 10423.2 7288.5 905.1 2044.5 4338.9 20024 10540.4 7370.6 911.7 2063.7 4395.2 20031 10658.6 7453.4 918.5 2083.3 4451.6 20032 10778.1 7536.9 925.5 2103.2 4508.2 20033 10898.9 7621.3 932.7 2123.4 4565.1 20034 11021.1 7706.7 940.2 2144.0 4622.5 20041 11145.0 7793.1 947.9 2164.9 4680.3 20042 11270.6 7880.9 955.9 2186.3 4738.7 20043 11398.2 7970.0 964.1 2208.1 4797.7 20044 11527.9 8060.5 972.7 2230.3 4857.5
Quar. 6 7 8 11 12
19961 1075.4 1059.1 759.0 300.1 16.3 19962 1118.3 1089.8 774.8 315.0 28.5 19963 1167.9 1118.1 801.1 317.0 49.8 19964 1165.9 1132.1 816.8 315.3 33.8 19971 1206.3 1146.6 827.1 319.5 59.7 19972 1259.9 1176.4 850.5 325.9 83.5 19973 1265.7 1211.1 882.3 328.8 54.6 19974 1292.1 1220.2 882.8 337.4 71.9 19981 1366.6 1271.1 921.3 349.8 95.5 19982 1344.9 1305.7 941.9 363.8 39.2 19983 1364.4 1307.4 931.6 375.8 57.0 19984 1392.5 1346.8 957.9 388.9 45.7 19991 1417.4 1377.9 972.6 405.3 39.5 19992 1426.7 1407.1 994.0 413.1 19.6 19993 1465.9 1425.3 1015.5 409.9 40.5 19994 1487.8 1441.7 1034.7 407.0 46.1 20001 1495.9 1455.9 1052.1 403.8 40.0 20002 1515.2 1471.1 1070.2 400.9 44.0 20003 1531.5 1485.3 1087.1 398.2 46.2 20004 1543.7 1498.1 1102.3 395.9 45.6 20011 1555.3 1511.0 1116.6 394.5 44.3 20012 1567.3 1523.5 1129.6 393.9 43.8 20013 1578.1 1535.1 1141.0 394.1 43.1 20014 1588.0 1545.9 1150.9 394.9 42.1 20021 1596.8 1555.9 1159.3 396.5 40.9 20022 1604.7 1565.1 1166.2 398.9 39.6 20023 1612.0 1573.5 1171.6 401.9 38.5 20024 1618.9 1581.4 1175.8 405.6 37.6 20031 1625.5 1588.6 1178.7 409.9 36.9 20032 1631.8 1595.4 1180.6 414.8 36.4 20033 1638.0 1601.8 1181.6 420.2 36.2 20034 1643.9 1607.8 1181.8 426.0 36.1 20041 1649.7 1613.6 1181.3 432.3 36.1 20042 1655.4 1619.2 1180.3 438.9 36.2 20043 1661.2 1624.7 1178.8 445.9 36.5 20044 1667.0 1630.3 1177.1 453.1 36.8
Quar. 13 14 17 20 21 24
19961 -75.7 856.6 932.3 1387.5 517.1 870.4 19962 -94.0 863.0 957.0 1406.0 523.1 882.9 19963 -115.5 861.4 976.9 1408.6 519.0 889.6 19964 -79.6 914.2 993.8 1418.8 514.6 904.2 19971 -93.3 930.2 1023.5 1439.4 517.0 922.4 19972 -86.8 961.1 1047.9 1451.5 522.9 928.6 19973 -94.7 981.7 1076.4 1459.5 521.0 938.5 19974 -98.8 988.6 1087.4 1468.0 520.1 947.9 19981 -123.8 973.3 1097.1 1464.9 511.6 953.3 19982 -159.3 949.6 1108.9 1481.1 520.7 960.4 19983 -165.5 936.2 1101.7 1492.3 519.4 972.9 19984 -156.2 976.8 1133.0 1510.2 530.7 979.5 19991 -196.9 962.7 1159.6 1537.5 536.6 1000.9 19992 -225.7 972.9 1198.6 1544.1 533.3 1010.8 19993 -250.7 969.9 1220.6 1558.5 537.3 1021.2 19994 -275.3 967.1 1242.4 1573.4 541.4 1032.1 20001 -280.0 983.7 1263.7 1589.0 545.7 1043.3 20002 -283.7 1000.9 1284.6 1605.2 550.2 1055.0 20003 -286.4 1018.6 1304.9 1621.8 554.8 1067.0 20004 -288.1 1036.6 1324.7 1638.9 559.6 1079.3 20011 -284.2 1060.0 1344.2 1656.4 564.5 1091.9 20012 -279.5 1084.0 1363.5 1674.2 569.4 1104.8 20013 -274.0 1108.6 1382.6 1692.4 574.5 1117.9 20014 -267.7 1133.8 1401.5 1710.8 579.6 1131.2 20021 -260.8 1159.5 1420.3 1729.6 584.8 1144.7 20022 -253.2 1185.8 1439.0 1748.5 590.1 1158.5 20023 -245.1 1212.6 1457.7 1767.8 595.4 1172.4 20024 -236.4 1240.1 1476.5 1787.3 600.8 1186.5 20031 -227.2 1268.2 1495.4 1807.0 606.2 1200.8 20032 -217.6 1296.9 1514.5 1827.0 611.7 1215.3 20033 -207.6 1326.3 1533.9 1847.3 617.3 1230.0 20034 -197.2 1356.4 1553.6 1867.8 622.9 1244.9 20041 -186.5 1387.1 1573.6 1888.6 628.6 1260.1 20042 -175.4 1418.6 1594.0 1909.8 634.3 1275.4 20043 -164.1 1450.9 1614.9 1931.2 640.2 1291.0 20044 -152.4 1483.9 1636.4 1952.9 646.1 1306.8
Line 1 Gross Domestic Product Line 2 Personal Consumption Expenditures Line 3 Durable Goods Line 4 Nondurable Goods Line 5 Services Line 6 Gross Private Domestic Investment Line 7 Fixed Investment Line 8 Nonresidential Line 11 Residential Line 12 Change in Business Inventories Line 13 Net Exports of Goods and Services Line 14 Exports Line 17 Imports Line 20 Government Consumption Expenditures and Gross Investment Line 21 Federal Line 22 State and Local
NIPA Table 1.2
NIPA Table 1.2
US Model Forecasts Gross Domestic Product
Billions of 1992 Dollars
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Table 1.2 Quar. 1 2 3 4 5
19961 6882.0 4693.0 611.0 1433.5 2648.5 19962 6983.9 4748.3 629.5 1450.4 2668.4 19963 7020.0 4769.3 626.5 1454.7 2688.1 19964 7093.1 4804.3 637.5 1465.1 2701.7 19971 7166.7 4856.3 656.3 1477.9 2722.1 19972 7236.5 4874.5 653.8 1477.1 2743.6 19973 7311.2 4950.7 679.6 1495.7 2775.4 19974 7364.6 4983.9 684.8 1494.3 2804.8 19981 7464.7 5060.8 710.3 1521.2 2829.3 19982 7498.6 5137.1 729.4 1540.9 2866.8 19983 7566.5 5187.6 733.7 1549.1 2904.8 19984 7677.7 5257.3 775.0 1565.1 2917.2 19991 7759.6 5346.6 798.9 1600.9 2946.8 19992 7803.6 5399.7 809.8 1612.7 2977.2 19993 7880.9 5463.6 823.7 1629.5 3010.4 19994 7937.9 5524.2 835.1 1645.1 3043.9 20001 7996.0 5579.6 845.3 1658.7 3075.6 20002 8060.1 5629.7 853.5 1670.1 3106.0 20003 8118.1 5676.1 860.2 1680.3 3135.6 20004 8171.0 5720.6 864.8 1690.0 3165.8 20011 8225.4 5762.1 868.5 1698.5 3195.1 20012 8278.0 5801.3 871.6 1706.2 3223.5 20013 8328.2 5838.5 874.1 1713.4 3251.0 20014 8376.3 5874.2 876.1 1720.2 3277.9 20021 8422.9 5909.1 877.9 1726.9 3304.2 20022 8468.4 5943.3 879.6 1733.6 3330.1 20023 8513.3 5977.1 881.2 1740.4 3355.5 20024 8557.9 6010.7 882.9 1747.2 3380.6 20031 8602.3 6044.3 884.7 1754.2 3405.4 20032 8646.8 6078.0 886.6 1761.4 3430.0 20033 8691.4 6111.8 888.7 1768.7 3454.5 20034 8736.2 6145.9 890.9 1776.1 3478.9 20041 8781.2 6180.2 893.3 1783.7 3503.2 20042 8826.5 6214.9 895.9 1791.5 3527.6 20043 8872.3 6250.1 898.7 1799.4 3552.0 20044 8918.6 6285.6 901.7 1807.5 3576.4
Quar. 6 7 8 11 12
19961 1027.2 1012.8 744.8 268.0 14.4 19962 1070.7 1044.6 764.4 280.2 26.1 19963 1116.6 1069.1 790.1 279.0 47.5 19964 1115.4 1083.3 807.0 276.3 32.1 19971 1155.6 1099.3 820.9 278.4 56.3 19972 1209.7 1130.7 848.2 282.5 79.0 19973 1215.5 1164.5 882.2 282.3 51.0 19974 1240.6 1174.1 886.2 287.9 66.5 19981 1321.8 1230.4 931.9 298.5 91.4 19982 1307.7 1269.5 960.4 309.1 38.2 19983 1330.9 1275.2 958.7 316.5 55.7 19984 1360.2 1316.0 991.9 324.1 44.2 19991 1386.8 1348.1 1012.2 335.9 38.7 19992 1398.0 1378.6 1038.5 340.1 19.4 19993 1432.2 1392.3 1056.3 336.0 39.9 19994 1448.8 1403.6 1071.5 332.1 45.2 20001 1451.2 1412.1 1084.2 327.9 39.1 20002 1464.0 1421.3 1097.3 323.9 42.8 20003 1473.6 1428.9 1108.8 320.1 44.6 20004 1478.8 1435.0 1118.4 316.5 43.8 20011 1482.9 1440.6 1126.9 313.7 42.3 20012 1487.1 1445.5 1133.9 311.6 41.6 20013 1489.9 1449.1 1139.1 310.0 40.7 20014 1491.4 1451.8 1142.8 309.0 39.6 20021 1491.7 1453.4 1144.9 308.6 38.3 20022 1490.9 1454.1 1145.4 308.7 36.9 20023 1489.5 1453.8 1144.5 309.4 35.6 20024 1487.4 1452.8 1142.3 310.5 34.6 20031 1484.8 1451.1 1139.0 312.1 33.8 20032 1481.9 1448.7 1134.6 314.1 33.1 20033 1478.6 1445.9 1129.4 316.5 32.7 20034 1475.1 1442.6 1123.5 319.1 32.5 20041 1471.3 1438.9 1116.9 322.0 32.3 20042 1467.3 1435.0 1109.8 325.2 32.3 20043 1463.2 1430.9 1102.4 328.6 32.3 20044 1459.2 1426.8 1094.7 332.1 32.4
Quar. 13 14 17 20
19961 -95.5 833.6 929.1 1254.5 19962 -113.4 845.5 958.9 1276.2 19963 -140.1 849.9 990.0 1271.2 19964 -95.9 911.1 1007.0 1271.3 19971 -121.5 929.4 1050.9 1277.8 19972 -131.6 963.6 1095.2 1284.6 19973 -142.4 988.1 1130.5 1289.0 19974 -149.0 998.8 1147.8 1289.4 19981 -198.5 991.9 1190.4 1283.2 19982 -245.2 972.1 1217.3 1295.0 19983 -259.0 965.3 1224.3 1299.8 19984 -250.0 1009.6 1259.6 1310.6 19991 -303.6 996.5 1300.1 1324.2 19992 -323.0 1007.6 1330.6 1320.2 19993 -348.4 1000.0 1348.3 1324.8 19994 -373.2 992.4 1365.6 1329.5 20001 -377.6 1004.5 1382.2 1334.2 20002 -381.2 1016.9 1398.1 1338.9 20003 -383.9 1029.4 1413.2 1343.6 20004 -385.5 1042.0 1427.5 1348.4 20011 -381.6 1059.8 1441.4 1353.2 20012 -377.0 1077.8 1454.8 1358.0 20013 -371.7 1096.2 1467.9 1362.8 20014 -365.7 1114.9 1480.7 1367.7 20021 -359.1 1133.9 1493.1 1372.6 20022 -352.0 1153.3 1505.3 1377.5 20023 -344.4 1173.0 1517.4 1382.5 20024 -336.4 1193.0 1529.3 1387.5 20031 -328.0 1213.3 1541.3 1392.5 20032 -319.3 1234.0 1553.3 1397.5 20033 -310.3 1255.1 1565.4 1402.6 20034 -301.2 1276.5 1577.6 1407.7 20041 -291.8 1298.3 1590.1 1412.8 20042 -282.4 1320.4 1602.8 1418.0 20043 -272.8 1342.9 1615.8 1423.2 20044 -263.3 1365.8 1629.1 1428.4
Line 1 Gross Domestic Product Line 2 Personal Consumption Expenditures Line 3 Durable Goods Line 4 Nondurable Goods Line 5 Services Line 6 Gross Private Domestic Investment Line 7 Fixed Investment Line 8 Nonresidential Line 11 Residential Line 12 Change in Business Inventories Line 13 Net Exports of Goods and Services Line 14 Exports Line 17 Imports Line 20 Government Consumption Expenditures and Gross Investment
NIPA Table 3.2
NIPA Table 3.2
US Model Forecasts Fed. Gov. Receipts and Expenditures
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Table 3.2 Quar. 1 2 6 9 13
19961 1529.9 652.6 191.2 89.9 596.2 19962 1581.8 691.4 195.2 88.5 606.7 19963 1593.6 693.8 194.3 90.5 615.0 19964 1633.5 710.0 191.4 109.2 622.9 19971 1671.1 741.7 203.9 90.7 634.8 19972 1703.5 759.1 206.5 95.5 642.4 19973 1739.6 776.9 217.0 95.1 650.6 19974 1765.5 798.6 212.8 93.8 660.3 19981 1809.1 836.5 204.8 93.9 673.9 19982 1838.3 855.7 206.2 95.2 681.2 19983 1858.8 863.8 207.5 98.3 689.2 19984 1870.4 875.9 201.0 96.0 697.5 19991 1914.8 891.3 213.8 95.7 714.0 19992 1938.3 908.8 211.8 96.0 721.7 19993 1967.8 919.7 219.9 97.5 730.6 19994 1992.7 932.5 221.7 99.1 739.5 20001 2018.3 945.3 224.1 100.5 748.3 20002 2046.0 959.1 227.3 102.0 757.6 20003 2072.5 972.7 229.5 103.4 766.9 20004 2097.7 985.7 231.3 104.7 775.9 20011 2123.8 998.9 233.7 106.1 785.1 20012 2149.9 1012.2 236.0 107.4 794.3 20013 2175.5 1025.3 238.1 108.7 803.4 20014 2200.8 1038.2 240.3 110.0 812.4 20021 2226.1 1051.1 242.4 111.3 821.4 20022 2251.5 1063.9 244.7 112.5 830.3 20023 2277.1 1076.7 247.3 113.8 839.3 20024 2303.0 1089.4 250.3 115.1 848.3 20031 2329.4 1102.1 253.6 116.4 857.3 20032 2356.3 1115.0 257.2 117.7 866.4 20033 2383.7 1127.8 261.2 119.0 875.6 20034 2411.5 1140.7 265.5 120.3 885.0 20041 2439.8 1153.6 270.1 121.7 894.4 20042 2468.9 1166.7 275.1 123.1 904.0 20043 2498.6 1180.1 280.5 124.4 913.7 20044 2529.1 1193.5 286.2 125.9 923.5
Quar . 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 25 29
19961 1679.9 445.7 757.8 738.8 19.0 214.3 227.7 34.4 -150.0 19962 1694.4 453.1 757.9 746.9 11.0 223.8 226.1 33.5 -112.6 19963 1693.8 452.9 762.5 750.7 11.8 219.0 228.6 30.8 -100.2 19964 1711.9 451.8 778.6 755.8 22.8 218.4 231.1 32.0 -78.4 19971 1722.3 456.8 783.4 773.9 9.5 220.7 229.4 32.0 -51.2 19972 1738.4 464.8 787.2 777.3 9.9 223.2 231.6 31.6 -34.9 19973 1739.9 460.0 791.1 781.2 9.9 224.4 231.9 32.5 -0.3 19974 1763.3 460.1 805.9 784.4 21.5 231.8 231.8 33.7 2.2 19981 1750.3 450.9 808.5 798.6 9.9 228.7 228.8 33.4 58.8 19982 1763.8 464.0 811.1 802.1 9.0 226.9 228.3 33.5 74.5 19983 1766.8 458.7 817.0 805.8 11.2 231.4 225.7 34.0 92.0 19984 1804.6 470.6 829.8 807.2 22.6 237.4 221.4 45.4 65.8 19991 1792.1 471.8 830.4 820.5 9.9 241.1 214.3 34.5 122.7 19992 1804.7 469.8 834.4 823.7 10.7 245.4 214.9 40.2 133.6 19993 1817.5 473.8 844.5 833.8 10.7 248.9 210.1 40.2 150.3 19994 1834.0 477.9 854.7 844.0 10.7 252.4 208.7 40.2 158.8 20001 1850.8 482.2 865.1 854.4 10.7 256.0 207.3 40.2 167.6 20002 1868.0 486.7 875.6 864.9 10.7 259.6 205.9 40.2 178.0 20003 1884.9 491.3 886.2 875.5 10.7 263.3 203.8 40.2 187.6 20004 1900.6 496.1 896.9 886.2 10.7 267.1 200.3 40.2 197.1 20011 1924.3 501.0 914.2 903.5 10.7 272.2 196.8 40.2 199.5 20012 1948.9 505.9 931.7 921.0 10.7 277.5 193.5 40.2 200.9 20013 1973.4 511.0 949.6 938.9 10.7 282.9 189.6 40.2 202.1 20014 1997.8 516.1 967.8 957.1 10.7 288.4 185.2 40.2 203.1 20021 2023.0 521.3 986.4 975.7 10.7 294.0 181.0 40.2 203.1 20022 2049.1 526.6 1005.4 994.7 10.7 299.7 177.2 40.2 202.4 20023 2075.5 531.9 1024.7 1014.0 10.7 305.6 173.2 40.2 201.6 20024 2102.6 537.3 1044.4 1033.7 10.7 311.5 169.2 40.2 200.4 20031 2130.1 542.7 1064.5 1053.8 10.7 317.5 165.2 40.2 199.3 20032 2158.6 548.2 1085.0 1074.3 10.7 323.7 161.5 40.2 197.8 20033 2186.8 553.8 1105.8 1095.1 10.7 330.0 157.0 40.2 196.8 20034 2215.2 559.4 1127.1 1116.4 10.7 336.4 152.0 40.2 196.3 20041 2243.6 565.1 1148.8 1138.1 10.7 342.9 146.6 40.2 196.2 20042 2272.9 570.8 1170.9 1160.2 10.7 349.6 141.4 40.2 195.9 20043 2302.8 576.7 1193.4 1182.7 10.7 356.4 136.0 40.2 195.9 20044 2333.0 582.6 1216.4 1205.7 10.7 363.3 130.4 40.2 196.2
Line 1 Receipts Line 2 Personal Tax and Nontax Receipts Line 6 Corporate Profit Tax Accruals Line 9 Indirect Business Tax and Nontax Accruals Line 13 Contributions for Social Insurance Line 14 Current Expenditures Line 15 Consumption Expenditures Line 16 Transfer Payments (net) Line 17 To Persons Line 18 To Rest of the World (net) Line 19 Grants-in-Aid to State and Local Governments Line 20 Net Interest Paid Line 25 Subsidies less Current Surplus of Government Enterprises Line 29 NIPA Surplus(+) or Deficit(-)
NIPA Table 3.3
NIPA Table 3.3
US Model Forecasts S&L Gov. Receipts and Expenditures
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Table 3.3 Quar. 1 2 6 7 11 12
19961 1025.3 197.1 32.7 504.0 77.2 214.3 19962 1048.0 201.9 33.4 511.3 77.6 223.8 19963 1049.2 205.6 33.3 513.3 78.0 219.0 19964 1058.4 209.7 32.8 519.1 78.4 218.4 19971 1075.2 213.9 34.9 526.5 79.2 220.7 19972 1084.5 216.7 35.4 529.5 79.7 223.2 19973 1100.9 222.1 37.3 536.9 80.2 224.4 19974 1116.5 226.9 36.5 540.7 80.6 231.8 19981 1123.3 230.4 35.1 548.0 81.1 228.7 19982 1133.7 237.2 35.4 552.5 81.7 226.9 19983 1152.3 244.6 35.7 558.2 82.4 231.4 19984 1183.1 248.9 34.5 579.1 83.2 237.4 19991 1192.9 252.8 36.9 577.9 84.2 241.1 19992 1206.6 253.3 36.6 586.3 85.0 245.4 19993 1224.8 256.4 38.0 595.7 85.8 248.9 19994 1242.4 260.1 38.3 605.0 86.5 252.4 20001 1259.9 263.8 38.7 614.1 87.3 256.0 20002 1277.5 267.8 39.2 622.8 88.1 259.6 20003 1294.7 271.7 39.6 631.2 88.9 263.3 20004 1311.7 275.4 39.9 639.6 89.7 267.1 20011 1330.1 279.2 40.3 647.8 90.5 272.2 20012 1348.5 283.1 40.7 655.9 91.3 277.5 20013 1366.8 286.8 41.1 663.8 92.1 282.9 20014 1385.0 290.5 41.5 671.6 93.0 288.4 20021 1403.4 294.2 41.8 679.4 93.8 294.0 20022 1421.8 298.0 42.2 687.2 94.7 299.7 20023 1440.4 301.6 42.7 695.0 95.5 305.6 20024 1459.2 305.3 43.2 702.9 96.4 311.5 20031 1478.3 309.0 43.8 710.7 97.3 317.5 20032 1497.6 312.7 44.4 718.7 98.1 323.7 20033 1517.2 316.3 45.1 726.8 99.0 330.0 20034 1537.1 320.1 45.8 734.9 99.9 336.4 20041 1557.4 323.8 46.6 743.2 100.8 342.9 20042 1578.0 327.6 47.5 751.5 101.8 349.6 20043 1598.9 331.4 48.4 760.0 102.7 356.4 20044 1620.3 335.3 49.4 768.6 103.6 363.3
Quar. 13 14 15 16 19 20 23 24
19961 908.1 712.6 289.6 -70.5 13.2 -10.4 0.0 117.2 19962 918.9 721.6 292.3 -70.7 13.6 -10.7 0.0 129.1 19963 926.8 727.8 294.9 -71.4 13.7 -10.8 0.0 122.4 19964 936.6 736.7 297.3 -72.5 14.0 -10.9 0.0 121.8 19971 946.8 747.2 299.7 -75.0 14.4 -10.7 0.0 128.4 19972 954.4 754.0 302.5 -76.7 14.8 -10.6 0.0 130.1 19973 964.3 762.2 305.5 -78.2 14.7 -10.5 0.0 136.6 19974 975.2 771.5 308.6 -79.5 15.1 -10.3 0.0 141.3 19981 983.0 776.7 312.6 -80.7 15.7 -9.9 0.0 140.3 19982 992.5 784.7 315.6 -82.2 16.0 -9.6 0.0 141.2 19983 1003.6 793.9 318.8 -83.7 16.0 -9.4 0.0 148.7 19984 1012.7 801.2 322.5 -85.3 16.6 -9.1 0.0 170.4 19991 1023.1 810.2 325.7 -87.0 16.8 -9.0 0.0 169.8 19992 1037.4 822.9 329.1 -88.8 17.0 -8.8 0.0 169.2 19993 1050.5 833.3 332.7 -89.5 17.2 -8.8 0.0 174.2 19994 1064.2 844.2 336.4 -90.1 17.4 -8.8 0.0 178.2 20001 1078.6 855.4 340.5 -90.8 17.6 -8.8 0.0 181.2 20002 1093.6 867.1 344.7 -91.5 17.9 -8.8 0.0 183.9 20003 1109.2 879.1 349.1 -92.1 18.1 -8.8 0.0 185.5 20004 1125.5 891.4 354.0 -92.8 18.3 -8.8 0.0 186.2 20011 1142.3 904.0 359.1 -93.5 18.5 -8.8 0.0 187.8 20012 1159.6 916.9 364.5 -94.2 18.7 -8.8 0.0 188.9 20013 1177.5 930.0 370.2 -94.9 19.0 -8.8 0.0 189.3 20014 1195.9 943.3 376.2 -95.6 19.2 -8.8 0.0 189.2 20021 1214.7 956.8 382.5 -96.3 19.4 -8.8 0.0 188.6 20022 1234.1 970.6 389.1 -97.0 19.7 -8.8 0.0 187.7 20023 1254.0 984.5 396.0 -97.8 19.9 -8.8 0.0 186.5 20024 1274.3 998.6 403.1 -98.5 20.2 -8.8 0.0 185.0 20031 1295.0 1012.9 410.5 -99.2 20.4 -8.8 0.0 183.3 20032 1316.0 1027.4 418.0 -99.9 20.7 -8.8 0.0 181.6 20033 1337.3 1042.1 425.6 -100.7 20.9 -8.8 0.0 179.9 20034 1359.0 1057.0 433.4 -101.4 21.2 -8.8 0.0 178.2 20041 1380.9 1072.2 441.2 -102.2 21.4 -8.8 0.0 176.4 20042 1403.2 1087.5 449.1 -102.9 21.7 -8.8 0.0 174.8 20043 1425.7 1103.1 457.1 -103.7 22.0 -8.8 0.0 173.2 20044 1448.6 1118.9 465.2 -104.5 22.2 -8.8 0.0 171.7
Line 1 Receipts Line 2 Personal Tax and Nontax Receipts Line 6 Corporate Profit Tax Accruals Line 7 Indirect Business Tax and Nontax Accruals Line 11 Contributions for Social Insurance Line 12 Federal Grants-in-Aid Line 13 Current Expenditures Line 14 Consumption Expenditures Line 15 Transfer Payments to Persons Line 16 Net Interest Paid Line 19 Less: Dividends Received by Government Line 20 Subsidies less Current Surplus of Government Enterprises Line 23 Less: Wage Accruals Less Disbursements Line 24 NIPA Surplus(+) or Deficit(-)
NIPA Table 7.1
NIPA Table 7.1
US Model Forecasts of Price Indexes for GDP
Index numbers, 1992=100
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Table 7.1 Quar. 4 8 12 16 20
19961 108.9 108.8 103.5 105.1 112.1 19962 109.2 109.5 102.8 106.0 112.9 19963 109.7 109.9 102.6 106.1 113.7 19964 110.2 110.6 102.1 107.0 114.5 19971 111.0 111.2 101.9 107.6 115.5 19972 111.4 111.6 100.9 107.5 116.3 19973 111.8 111.9 100.2 107.7 117.0 19974 112.1 112.2 99.6 108.0 117.6 19981 112.3 112.2 99.3 107.4 118.0 19982 112.6 112.4 98.7 107.4 118.5 19983 112.8 112.7 98.0 107.8 119.0 19984 113.1 112.9 97.4 108.1 119.6 19991 113.5 113.2 96.5 108.4 120.2 19992 114.0 113.9 96.0 109.8 120.9 19993 114.5 114.3 96.4 110.3 121.4 19994 115.0 114.9 96.9 110.8 122.0 20001 115.6 115.4 97.4 111.4 122.6 20002 116.2 116.0 97.8 111.9 123.2 20003 116.9 116.6 98.4 112.5 123.8 20004 117.5 117.2 98.9 113.1 124.5 20011 118.2 117.9 99.4 113.7 125.2 20012 118.9 118.6 99.9 114.3 125.8 20013 119.6 119.2 100.5 114.9 126.5 20014 120.3 119.9 101.0 115.6 127.2 20021 121.0 120.6 101.6 116.2 127.9 20022 121.7 121.3 102.1 116.8 128.6 20023 122.4 121.9 102.7 117.5 129.3 20024 123.2 122.6 103.3 118.1 130.0 20031 123.9 123.3 103.8 118.8 130.7 20032 124.6 124.0 104.4 119.4 131.4 20033 125.4 124.7 105.0 120.1 132.2 20034 126.2 125.4 105.5 120.7 132.9 20041 126.9 126.1 106.1 121.4 133.6 20042 127.7 126.8 106.7 122.0 134.3 20043 128.5 127.5 107.3 122.7 135.1 20044 129.3 128.2 107.9 123.4 135.8
Quar. 28 32 44 48 60 72
19961 104.6 101.9 112.0 102.8 100.3 110.6 19962 104.3 101.4 112.4 102.1 99.8 110.2 19963 104.6 101.4 113.6 101.4 98.7 110.8 19964 104.5 101.2 114.1 100.3 98.7 111.6 19971 104.3 100.8 114.8 100.1 97.4 112.6 19972 104.0 100.3 115.4 99.7 95.7 113.0 19973 104.0 100.0 116.5 99.4 95.2 113.2 19974 103.9 99.6 117.2 99.0 94.7 113.9 19981 103.3 98.9 117.2 98.1 92.2 114.2 19982 102.9 98.1 117.7 97.7 91.1 114.4 19983 102.5 97.2 118.7 97.0 90.0 114.8 19984 102.3 96.6 120.0 96.8 89.9 115.2 19991 102.2 96.1 120.7 96.6 89.2 116.1 19992 102.1 95.7 121.5 96.6 90.1 117.0 19993 102.4 96.1 122.0 97.0 90.5 117.6 19994 102.7 96.6 122.5 97.4 91.0 118.3 20001 103.1 97.0 123.1 97.9 91.4 119.1 20002 103.5 97.5 123.8 98.4 91.9 119.9 20003 103.9 98.0 124.4 99.0 92.3 120.7 20004 104.4 98.6 125.1 99.5 92.8 121.5 20011 104.9 99.1 125.7 100.0 93.3 122.4 20012 105.4 99.6 126.4 100.6 93.7 123.3 20013 105.9 100.2 127.1 101.1 94.2 124.2 20014 106.5 100.7 127.8 101.7 94.7 125.1 20021 107.1 101.3 128.5 102.3 95.1 126.0 20022 107.6 101.8 129.2 102.8 95.6 126.9 20023 108.2 102.4 129.9 103.4 96.1 127.9 20024 108.9 102.9 130.6 104.0 96.5 128.8 20031 109.5 103.5 131.3 104.5 97.0 129.8 20032 110.1 104.1 132.0 105.1 97.5 130.7 20033 110.8 104.6 132.8 105.7 98.0 131.7 20034 111.5 105.2 133.5 106.3 98.5 132.7 20041 112.1 105.8 134.2 106.8 99.0 133.7 20042 112.8 106.4 135.0 107.4 99.5 134.7 20043 113.5 106.9 135.7 108.0 99.9 135.7 20044 114.3 107.5 136.5 108.6 100.4 136.7
Line 4 Gross Domestic Product Line 8 Personal Consumption Expenditures Line 12 Durable Goods Line 16 Nondurable Goods Line 20 Services Line 28 Fixed Investment Line 32 Nonresidential Line 44 Residential Line 48 Exports of Goods and Services Line 60 Imports of Goods and Services Line 72 Government Consumption Expenditures and Gross Investment