US Forecast: November 5, 1999
Forecast Period

1999:4--2004:4 (21 quarters)

Data

The forecast is based on the national income and product accounts (NIPA) data that were released on October 28, 1999.

The Latest Version of the US Model

For purposes of this forecast the US model has been reestimated through 1999:3. These estimates are presented in the "Chapter 5 tables" at the end of The US Model Workbook. The rest of the specification of the model is in Appendix A at the end of this workbook.

A complete discussion of the November 3, 1998, version of the US model is in Macroeconometric Modeling, which is the main reference for this site. The NIPA data have been revised back to 1959, and the revised data have been used. When necessary, data prior to 1959 were spliced to the new data. A few specification changes were made in the process of updating the model. The following is a list of the changes that have been made from the November 3, 1998, version.

  1. Equation 1 (CS, service consumption): The lagged value of the log of the asset variable, AA/POP, has been added. It now appears possible to pick up a wealth effect on service consumption. This change also pertains to the July 30, 1999, version of the model.
  2. Equation 3 (CD, durable expenditures): The lagged value of the asset variable, AA/POP, has been added. It now appears possible to pick up a wealth effect on durable expenditures. This change also pertains to the May 1, 1999, and July 30, 1999, versions of the model.
  3. Equation 5 (L1, labor force--men 25-54): The Z variable has been dropped.
  4. Equation 6 (L2, labor force--women 25-54): The Z variable has been dropped.
  5. Equation 7 (L3, labor force--all others 16+): The Z variable has been replaced by the unemployment rate, UR.
  6. Equation 8 (LM, number of moonlighters): The Z variable has been replaced by the unemployment rate, UR.
  7. Equation 10 (PF, private nonfarm price deflator): The gap variable has been replaced by the unemployment rate, UR.
  8. Equation 12 (KK, stock of capital): This equation replaces the old equation 12, which explained IKF, nonresidential fixed investment. IKF is now explained by the identity 92, which before determined KK. Identity 92 now is: IKF = KK - (1 - DELK)*KK-1. The new equation 12 has on the left hand side logKK and on the right hand side logKK-1, logKK-2, logY, logY-1, logY-2, logY-3, logY-4, logY-5, and RB*(1-D2G-D2S). Equation 12 for the previous three versions of the model (January 30, 1999, May 1, 1999, and July 30, 1999) differed from the equation in the November 3, 1998, version in that the interest rate variable was dropped.
  9. Equation 21 (CCF, capital consumption of the firm sector): This equation is now estimated under the assumption of first order serial correlation of the error term.
  10. Equation 27 (IM, imports): The lagged value of the log of the asset variable, AA/POP, has been added. It now appears possible to pick up a wealth effect on imports.
  11. Equation 30 (RS, three month Treasury bill rate): The variable JJS has been replaced by the unemployment rate, UR.
See Model Versions and References for more discussion of the model versions.

Assumptions Behind the Forecast

Included on this site is an analysis of three economic plans that I did on September 4, 1996: An Analysis of the Clinton and Dole Economic Plans. The three plans were the latest (at the time) Congressional plan, the Clinton plan, and the Dole plan. The budget agreement that was eventually worked out by the Democrats and Republicans was closest to the original Clinton plan, although the spending cuts were not as large as the originally planned cuts. The following table gives for the key government policy variables in the model 1) the growth rates used for the current forecast, 2) the growth rates I used in analyzing the original Clinton plan, and 3) the actual growth rates between 1993:3 and 1999:3.

                 Growth Rates (annual rates)

            Current         Clinton          Actual     
           Forecast           Plan       1999:3-1993.3  

TRGH          5.0/8.0         4.3             4.2       
COG           2.0            -4.8             0.3       
JG           -1.0            -4.8            -1.5       
TRGS          5.8/8.0         5.8             5.7       
TRSH          6.0             6.0             5.6       
COS           3.0             1.0             5.7       
JS            1.0             1.0             1.6       

Notes: 5.0/8.0 means 5.0% through 2000.4 and 8.0% thereafter.
       5.8/8.0 means 5.8% through 2000.4 and 8.0% thereafter. 

All tax rates are assumed to remain unchanged for the current forecast. It may help you to review the analysis of the Congressional and Clinton plans on the site to put the current assumptions in perspective, although this material is now somewhat dated.

If you examine the federal government surplus variable (SGP), you can see that the current fiscal-policy assumptions result in a surplus between about $160 and $230 billion throughout the forecast period. (Remember, this is with no tax cuts and no unusual government expenditure increases.)

No assumption about monetary policy is needed for the forecast because monetary policy is endogenous (equation 30, the interest rate reaction function). As can be seen from the second page of Table F1, the model is predicting the bill rate to rise to 5.6 percent by the beginning of 2001.

The Results

The current forecasts for real growth (at an annual rate) in the next four quarters are 3.7, 3.1, 3.3, and 3.2 percent, respectively. The growth rate then falls to 2.7 percent by the end of 2001 and remains roughly at this value throughout the rest of the forecast period. The unemployment rate falls to 3.7 percent by the end of 2000 and then begins to rise slightly. The inflation rate as measured by the growth of the GDP deflator (GDPD) is 2.8 percent for the next five quarters and then begins to fall slightly. The household saving rate (variable SRZ in the model) is forecast to fall to 0.8 by the beginning of 2001. The U.S. current account deficit (variable -SR in the model) is large throughout the period.

You can examine the tables of this forecast memo for the details, or you can print out the forecast values from the base data set for the model. Although the model is used to forecast through 2004:4, you should not put much confidence on the results beyond about 2001. Forecast error bands are fairly large for predictions this far ahead.

Possible Experiments to Run

The present forecast is a good base from which to make alternative fiscal-policy assumptions, depending on what you think Congress might do in light of the rosy government budget picture. For example, there is currently considerable uncertainty about possible future tax cuts, and you can experiment with alternative tax-cut plans.

As a historical footnote, the model has consistently been more optimistic about the size of future federal government deficits than have most others, especially regarding future tax revenues, and the recent data suggest that the model has been right. The CBO and others have now moved in the optimistic direction. You may want to compare the current CBO forecasts with those from the model. My sense is that the model has conveyed useful information in the past about the deficit that was not in the CBO forecasts at the time.

You may also want to drop the interest rate reaction function (equation 30) and put in your own assumptions about Fed behavior. For example, do you think the Fed will raise interest rates more than the model predicts it will in response to what is happening in the economy?

The model is predicting a fairly large increase in the rate of inflation (for the GDP deflator, from about 1.5 percent in the last four quarters to 2.8 percent in the next four), and you may want to experiment with the price equation (equation 10). The price equation may be overpredicting the price level, although note that the unemployment rate enters the equation only linearly and so there is no nonlinear response going on here. At some point one would expect to see large (i.e., nonlinear) price increases in response to a falling unemployment rate. Unfortunately, there are not enough observations at low unemployment rates for the data to estimate this point precisely. So it could be that inflation will be even worse in the future than the model is predicting if the economy is close to the point where the price response is nonlinear.

Finally, if you think the stock market might crash, you can, as explained in The US Model Workbook, put a crash in the model and examine the economic effects. One of the reasons the model is predicting a fairly good growth rate in the next year is because of the positive wealth effect on consumption due to the past boom in the stock market. Maybe the high level of stock prices won't last?

US Forecast Tables: November 5, 1999
Table F1: Forecasts of Selected Variables--Real GDP and Components
Table F1 (continued)--Prices and Wages
Table F1 (continued)--Money and Interest Rates
Table F1 (continued)--Employment and Labor Force
Table F1 (continued)--Other Endogenous
Table F1 (continued)--Selected Exogenous
Table F2: Forecasts of the Federal Government Budget
Table F3: Forecasts of the State and Local Government Budget
Table F4: Forecasts of Savings Flows
NIPA Table 1.1
NIPA Table 1.2
NIPA Table 3.2
NIPA Table 3.3
NIPA Table 7.1
Table F1: Forecasts of Selected Variables
Table F1
US Model Forecasts of Selected Variables
Real GDP and Components
Billions of 1996 Dollars

Quar. GDPR %Ch CS %Ch CN %Ch CD %Ch
19961 7671.4 2.9 3014.8 3.7 1553.9 2.4 601.7 4.1 19962 7800.5 6.9 3037.2 3.0 1569.9 4.2 620.4 13.0 19963 7843.3 2.2 3058.8 2.9 1578.6 2.2 618.1 -1.5 19964 7937.5 4.9 3077.2 2.4 1593.9 3.9 625.7 5.0 19971 8033.4 4.9 3110.1 4.3 1609.0 3.8 642.1 10.9 19972 8134.8 5.1 3137.0 3.5 1608.2 -0.2 639.7 -1.5 19973 8214.8 4.0 3172.0 4.5 1630.7 5.7 669.7 20.1 19974 8277.3 3.1 3207.8 4.6 1631.8 0.3 678.0 5.1 19981 8412.7 6.7 3234.2 3.3 1654.9 5.8 704.9 16.8 19982 8457.2 2.1 3272.2 4.8 1681.9 6.7 723.9 11.2 19983 8536.0 3.8 3309.6 4.7 1692.0 2.4 731.2 4.1 19984 8659.2 5.9 3322.0 1.5 1712.6 5.0 766.0 20.4 19991 8737.9 3.7 3356.5 4.2 1749.5 8.9 788.8 12.4 19992 8778.6 1.9 3399.2 5.2 1763.7 3.3 806.1 9.1 19993 8882.6 4.8 3433.7 4.1 1779.3 3.6 819.9 7.0 19994 8964.4 3.7 3473.8 4.8 1797.0 4.0 830.2 5.1 20001 9032.9 3.1 3512.0 4.5 1813.3 3.7 839.5 4.6 20002 9106.2 3.3 3548.9 4.3 1827.6 3.2 847.2 3.7 20003 9177.6 3.2 3585.0 4.1 1840.5 2.8 853.5 3.0 20004 9247.7 3.1 3621.6 4.1 1852.0 2.5 858.5 2.3 20011 9317.2 3.0 3657.3 4.0 1862.5 2.3 862.3 1.8 20012 9384.5 2.9 3692.2 3.9 1872.0 2.1 865.2 1.4 20013 9449.9 2.8 3726.2 3.7 1881.0 1.9 867.5 1.0 20014 9513.9 2.7 3759.6 3.6 1889.6 1.8 869.2 0.8 20021 9576.8 2.7 3792.3 3.5 1898.0 1.8 870.7 0.7 20022 9639.1 2.6 3824.5 3.4 1906.3 1.8 872.2 0.7 20023 9701.4 2.6 3856.3 3.4 1914.6 1.8 873.7 0.7 20024 9763.9 2.6 3887.7 3.3 1923.0 1.8 875.3 0.8 20031 9826.8 2.6 3918.8 3.2 1931.4 1.8 877.3 0.9 20032 9890.4 2.6 3949.8 3.2 1940.1 1.8 879.6 1.1 20033 9954.6 2.6 3980.7 3.2 1948.9 1.8 882.3 1.2 20034 10019.6 2.6 4011.4 3.1 1957.9 1.9 885.4 1.4 20041 10085.2 2.6 4042.2 3.1 1967.1 1.9 888.8 1.6 20042 10151.4 2.7 4072.9 3.1 1976.5 1.9 892.7 1.8 20043 10218.2 2.7 4103.7 3.1 1986.0 2.0 897.0 1.9 20044 10285.5 2.7 4134.6 3.0 1995.8 2.0 901.7 2.1
Quar. IHH %Ch IKF %Ch IVF IM %Ch
19961 266.2 12.3 750.0 15.9 5.6 921.1 10.8 19962 279.0 20.7 766.8 9.3 30.3 950.4 13.3 19963 278.4 -0.9 788.8 12.0 51.2 982.9 14.4 19964 275.5 -4.1 816.5 14.8 32.9 998.1 6.3 19971 279.3 5.6 834.9 9.3 51.5 1034.7 15.5 19972 282.4 4.6 856.9 11.0 93.1 1080.8 19.0 19973 283.0 0.8 892.2 17.5 59.2 1125.5 17.6 19974 287.4 6.4 899.6 3.3 72.7 1139.9 5.2 19981 296.8 13.8 960.2 29.8 107.3 1179.0 14.4 19982 306.4 13.6 990.4 13.2 43.1 1215.6 13.0 19983 312.3 7.9 990.3 0.0 76.1 1231.0 5.2 19984 319.8 9.9 1029.1 16.6 70.7 1263.1 10.8 19991 329.6 12.8 1049.9 8.3 50.1 1300.9 12.5 19992 333.9 5.4 1068.9 7.4 14.0 1345.4 14.4 19993 328.5 -6.3 1106.6 14.9 28.1 1399.9 17.2 19994 311.7 -18.9 1128.3 8.1 42.3 1419.3 5.6 20001 301.6 -12.4 1146.0 6.4 43.0 1436.7 5.0 20002 296.5 -6.6 1163.6 6.3 46.6 1452.6 4.5 20003 293.8 -3.6 1183.0 6.8 46.2 1466.9 4.0 20004 292.4 -2.0 1200.7 6.1 45.5 1479.7 3.5 20011 291.9 -0.6 1217.5 5.7 46.1 1491.4 3.2 20012 292.0 0.2 1233.8 5.5 45.7 1502.0 2.9 20013 292.5 0.7 1249.3 5.1 44.9 1511.7 2.6 20014 293.2 0.9 1264.0 4.8 44.1 1520.6 2.4 20021 294.1 1.3 1277.9 4.5 43.0 1528.8 2.2 20022 295.3 1.6 1291.0 4.2 42.0 1536.5 2.0 20023 296.8 2.0 1303.4 3.9 41.1 1543.9 1.9 20024 298.5 2.3 1315.4 3.7 40.5 1550.9 1.8 20031 300.5 2.7 1326.9 3.5 40.1 1557.9 1.8 20032 302.7 3.0 1338.0 3.4 39.9 1564.7 1.8 20033 305.2 3.3 1349.0 3.3 39.9 1571.7 1.8 20034 307.8 3.5 1359.8 3.2 40.1 1578.7 1.8 20041 310.7 3.7 1370.4 3.2 40.4 1585.8 1.8 20042 313.6 3.8 1380.9 3.1 40.8 1593.1 1.9 20043 316.7 4.0 1391.3 3.0 41.1 1600.6 1.9 20044 319.8 4.0 1401.6 3.0 41.5 1608.3 1.9
GDPR Real GDP CS Consumption - Services CN Consumption - Nondurables CD Consumption - Durables IHH Residential Investment IKF Nonresidential Investment IVF Inventory Investment IM Imports %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Prices and Wages - %Ch
                                                                         

Quar. GDPD PF WF WR
19961 2.5 2.2 4.5 2.2 19962 1.3 1.8 4.5 2.7 19963 1.7 1.5 3.3 1.7 19964 1.4 0.9 2.3 1.3 19971 2.4 3.8 2.2 -1.5 19972 1.5 1.8 3.2 1.3 19973 1.2 1.6 5.9 4.2 19974 1.2 1.3 5.5 4.1 19981 0.9 1.5 4.0 2.4 19982 1.3 1.1 6.9 5.7 19983 1.5 1.1 7.4 6.3 19984 1.0 -0.6 6.5 7.2 19991 2.0 2.7 4.8 2.1 19992 1.4 1.7 4.9 3.1 19993 0.9 0.8 3.2 2.4 19994 2.8 2.7 3.7 0.9 20001 2.8 2.8 3.8 1.0 20002 2.8 2.8 3.8 1.0 20003 2.8 2.8 3.9 1.1 20004 2.8 2.8 3.9 1.1 20011 2.8 2.7 3.9 1.2 20012 2.7 2.7 3.9 1.2 20013 2.7 2.6 3.9 1.3 20014 2.6 2.5 3.8 1.3 20021 2.5 2.4 3.8 1.3 20022 2.5 2.4 3.8 1.4 20023 2.4 2.3 3.7 1.4 20024 2.3 2.2 3.7 1.5 20031 2.3 2.2 3.7 1.5 20032 2.2 2.1 3.7 1.5 20033 2.2 2.1 3.6 1.5 20034 2.2 2.0 3.6 1.6 20041 2.1 2.0 3.6 1.6 20042 2.1 2.0 3.6 1.6 20043 2.1 2.0 3.6 1.6 20044 2.1 1.9 3.6 1.6
GDPD GDP Price Index PF Firm Sector Price Index WF Nominal Wage Rate WR Real Wage Rate %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Money and Interest Rates
                                                                         

Quar. RS RB RM M1 %Ch UBR
19961 4.9 7.0 7.6 1192.8 -2.6 68.1 19962 5.0 7.6 8.5 1196.8 1.4 69.3 19963 5.1 7.6 8.6 1214.8 6.2 68.8 19964 5.0 7.2 8.1 1205.0 -3.2 69.6 19971 5.1 7.4 8.2 1221.8 5.7 65.5 19972 5.1 7.6 8.2 1235.2 4.5 70.3 19973 5.1 7.2 7.7 1231.2 -1.3 71.6 19974 5.1 6.9 7.4 1249.7 6.1 73.8 19981 5.1 6.7 7.1 1262.9 4.3 73.4 19982 5.0 6.6 7.2 1272.6 3.1 72.0 19983 4.8 6.5 7.0 1285.2 4.0 75.4 19984 4.3 6.3 6.9 1311.4 8.4 68.4 19991 4.4 6.4 7.1 1319.3 2.4 73.3 19992 4.5 6.9 7.2 1321.5 0.7 74.1 19993 4.7 7.3 8.1 1312.2 -2.8 73.5 19994 4.7 7.4 8.1 1331.3 6.0 73.3 20001 4.9 7.4 8.1 1350.2 5.8 74.0 20002 5.1 7.4 8.1 1368.7 5.6 74.6 20003 5.3 7.4 8.2 1387.0 5.4 75.3 20004 5.4 7.5 8.3 1404.9 5.3 76.0 20011 5.6 7.5 8.4 1422.6 5.1 76.6 20012 5.7 7.6 8.4 1440.0 5.0 77.3 20013 5.8 7.6 8.5 1457.2 4.9 77.9 20014 5.9 7.7 8.6 1474.1 4.7 78.5 20021 5.9 7.7 8.6 1490.8 4.6 79.1 20022 5.9 7.7 8.7 1507.4 4.5 79.7 20023 5.9 7.8 8.7 1523.7 4.4 80.3 20024 5.9 7.8 8.8 1539.8 4.3 80.8 20031 5.9 7.8 8.8 1555.9 4.2 81.4 20032 5.8 7.8 8.8 1571.7 4.1 81.9 20033 5.8 7.8 8.8 1587.5 4.1 82.5 20034 5.7 7.8 8.8 1603.2 4.0 83.0 20041 5.6 7.8 8.7 1618.9 4.0 83.5 20042 5.6 7.8 8.7 1634.4 3.9 84.0 20043 5.5 7.7 8.7 1650.0 3.9 84.4 20044 5.4 7.7 8.6 1665.5 3.8 84.9
RS Bill Rate RB Bond Rate RM Mortgage Rate M1 Money Supply UBR Unborrowed Reserves %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Employment and Labor Force
                                                                         

Quar. 100UR L1 L2 L3 JF E U %Ch %Ch %Ch %Ch %Ch mill.
19961 5.5 2.2 1.0 -0.7 2.1 1.2 7.4 19962 5.5 1.9 2.4 1.4 2.1 2.2 7.3 19963 5.3 1.8 2.9 0.9 2.6 2.8 7.1 19964 5.3 1.3 2.8 2.4 2.7 1.9 7.2 19971 5.2 1.9 0.9 4.2 3.3 2.5 7.1 19972 5.0 0.6 1.5 1.8 2.0 2.3 6.8 19973 4.9 1.2 2.6 -0.8 1.3 1.6 6.6 19974 4.7 0.1 -1.7 5.3 2.9 1.7 6.4 19981 4.6 0.7 1.2 2.9 2.7 1.6 6.4 19982 4.4 -0.1 -0.8 1.3 2.5 1.0 6.1 19983 4.5 -0.1 0.8 2.2 1.8 0.4 6.2 19984 4.4 1.5 1.0 3.1 1.7 2.2 6.1 19991 4.3 1.4 2.7 2.9 1.3 2.9 6.0 19992 4.3 -1.4 -0.2 2.3 2.1 0.1 5.9 19993 4.2 0.1 -0.6 2.1 1.4 0.6 5.9 19994 4.1 1.3 2.4 2.8 2.8 2.5 5.8 20001 4.0 1.3 2.4 2.8 3.1 2.6 5.6 20002 3.9 1.3 2.4 2.8 3.1 2.6 5.5 20003 3.8 1.2 2.4 2.8 3.0 2.5 5.4 20004 3.7 1.2 2.4 2.8 2.9 2.3 5.3 20011 3.7 1.2 2.4 2.8 2.7 2.1 5.3 20012 3.7 1.2 2.4 2.8 2.5 2.0 5.4 20013 3.8 1.2 2.4 2.7 2.3 1.9 5.5 20014 3.8 1.2 2.4 2.7 2.2 1.8 5.6 20021 3.9 1.2 2.4 2.7 2.0 1.7 5.7 20022 4.0 1.2 2.4 2.6 1.9 1.7 5.8 20023 4.0 1.2 2.4 2.6 1.8 1.6 6.0 20024 4.1 1.2 2.4 2.5 1.7 1.6 6.1 20031 4.2 1.2 2.4 2.5 1.7 1.6 6.3 20032 4.3 1.2 2.4 2.5 1.6 1.6 6.4 20033 4.4 1.2 2.4 2.4 1.6 1.6 6.6 20034 4.4 1.2 2.4 2.4 1.6 1.6 6.7 20041 4.5 1.2 2.4 2.4 1.5 1.6 6.9 20042 4.6 1.2 2.4 2.4 1.5 1.6 7.0 20043 4.7 1.2 2.4 2.3 1.5 1.6 7.2 20044 4.7 1.2 2.4 2.3 1.5 1.6 7.3
UR Unemployment Rate L1 Labor Force, Men 25-54 L2 Labor Force, Women 25-54 L3 Labor Force, All Others 16+ JF Jobs, Firm Sector E Total Employment U Total Unemployment %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Other Endogenous Variables
                                                                         

Quar. CG PIEF PIEF 100SRZ PROD SR SGP SSP %Ch %Ch
19961 2097.6 570.4 14.1 5.3 3.1 90.7 -176.4 16.9 19962 1165.3 582.4 8.7 4.7 4.6 106.8 -137.0 27.2 19963 1229.7 585.7 2.3 5.2 0.3 134.3 -130.1 22.2 19964 3208.7 612.3 19.4 4.8 2.4 111.0 -103.9 19.4 19971 719.8 614.6 1.5 4.6 -0.6 117.3 -87.3 25.7 19972 5798.8 632.9 12.5 5.1 2.6 103.8 -63.1 23.7 19973 4034.7 665.1 22.0 4.3 2.7 126.7 -27.8 30.8 19974 1038.8 649.6 -9.0 4.5 0.5 147.0 -16.7 29.7 19981 5792.8 624.5 -14.6 4.2 3.5 152.1 24.8 32.0 19982 1215.7 630.6 4.0 3.7 0.6 191.2 43.7 30.9 19983 -5932.2 622.4 -5.1 3.7 3.4 232.7 59.6 50.0 19984 10330.8 610.6 -7.4 3.7 3.7 230.0 59.8 54.1 19991 2497.9 648.0 26.8 3.1 2.5 255.8 97.6 48.6 19992 3921.1 673.4 16.6 2.6 0.3 303.7 118.2 37.7 19993 -3920.0 678.5 3.1 2.2 3.6 338.5 135.6 46.1 19994 384.4 691.3 7.8 1.7 1.2 346.8 156.2 49.4 20001 423.6 686.5 -2.8 1.4 0.4 353.3 168.2 52.4 20002 409.0 683.2 -1.9 1.2 0.5 358.1 180.3 55.1 20003 405.3 680.5 -1.5 1.0 0.6 361.5 192.5 56.9 20004 405.9 679.4 -0.6 0.9 0.7 363.3 205.6 58.0 20011 400.4 680.2 0.5 0.8 0.8 364.1 211.8 59.7 20012 398.0 680.8 0.3 0.8 0.9 364.0 216.5 60.7 20013 399.1 681.3 0.3 0.8 1.0 363.1 220.9 61.2 20014 402.8 682.1 0.5 0.8 1.0 361.4 224.8 61.1 20021 407.9 682.8 0.4 0.8 1.1 359.2 227.4 60.7 20022 414.0 683.9 0.6 0.9 1.2 356.7 229.0 60.1 20023 420.6 685.5 0.9 0.9 1.2 353.8 230.1 59.2 20024 427.8 687.8 1.4 0.9 1.3 350.8 230.6 58.3 20031 434.9 690.8 1.7 1.0 1.3 347.7 230.8 57.3 20032 441.9 694.4 2.1 1.0 1.4 344.6 230.7 56.3 20033 448.6 698.3 2.3 1.1 1.4 341.5 230.6 55.3 20034 454.8 702.4 2.4 1.1 1.4 338.6 231.0 54.3 20041 461.0 706.7 2.5 1.1 1.5 335.7 232.0 53.3 20042 467.1 711.2 2.6 1.2 1.5 332.9 232.6 52.4 20043 472.9 715.9 2.7 1.2 1.5 330.4 233.2 51.5 20044 478.8 721.1 3.0 1.2 1.5 328.0 233.9 50.6
CG Capital Gains PIEF Profits SRZ Saving Rate PROD Productivity SR Savings-Foreign Sector SGP Federal Budget Deficit(-), NIPA SSP S&L Budget Deficit(-), NIPA %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Selected Exogenous Variables
                                                                         

Quar. COG COS EX TRGH TRGH PIM %Ch %Ch %Ch %Ch %Ch
19961 21.3 2.9 2.3 670.0 11.2 -1.6 19962 14.3 7.7 6.9 676.1 3.7 -1.7 19963 -14.3 3.6 3.4 680.2 2.4 -4.4 19964 2.2 11.9 29.1 685.9 3.4 0.6 19971 -5.4 10.6 8.8 702.6 10.1 -4.5 19972 24.7 5.8 16.2 705.6 1.7 -7.3 19973 -2.1 7.9 11.4 708.3 1.5 -2.5 19974 -4.8 4.9 1.8 709.8 0.8 -2.5 19981 -20.8 8.9 -1.5 716.8 4.0 -10.8 19982 28.1 5.0 -4.0 718.0 0.7 -4.1 19983 -5.8 7.1 -1.7 721.9 2.2 -4.6 19984 8.6 2.5 16.1 723.5 0.9 -0.3 19991 0.0 20.1 -5.5 736.6 7.4 -3.0 19992 6.3 -1.9 4.0 740.5 2.1 5.2 19993 6.9 4.4 12.4 746.6 3.3 5.9 19994 2.0 3.0 2.5 755.8 5.0 1.0 20001 2.0 3.0 2.5 765.0 5.0 1.0 20002 2.0 3.0 2.5 774.4 5.0 1.0 20003 2.0 3.0 2.5 783.9 5.0 1.0 20004 2.0 3.0 2.5 793.6 5.0 1.0 20011 2.0 3.0 2.5 809.0 8.0 1.0 20012 2.0 3.0 2.5 824.7 8.0 1.0 20013 2.0 3.0 2.5 840.7 8.0 1.0 20014 2.0 3.0 2.5 857.0 8.0 1.0 20021 2.0 3.0 2.5 873.7 8.0 1.0 20022 2.0 3.0 2.5 890.7 8.0 1.0 20023 2.0 3.0 2.5 908.0 8.0 1.0 20024 2.0 3.0 2.5 925.6 8.0 1.0 20031 2.0 3.0 2.5 943.6 8.0 1.0 20032 2.0 3.0 2.5 961.9 8.0 1.0 20033 2.0 3.0 2.5 980.6 8.0 1.0 20034 2.0 3.0 2.5 999.6 8.0 1.0 20041 2.0 3.0 2.5 1019.1 8.0 1.0 20042 2.0 3.0 2.5 1038.9 8.0 1.0 20043 2.0 3.0 2.5 1059.0 8.0 1.0 20044 2.0 3.0 2.5 1079.6 8.0 1.0
COG Real Federal Purchases of Goods COS Real S&L Purchases of Goods EX Exports TRGH Nominal Federal Transfer Payments PIM Import Price Index %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F2: Forecasts of the Federal Government Budget
Table F2
US Model Forecasts of the Federal Government Budget
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Quar. RECG TFG TCG IBTG SIG
19961 1447.0 637.5 187.3 90.4 531.8 19962 1495.6 674.4 192.0 89.0 540.2 19963 1503.4 675.6 190.9 89.7 547.2 19964 1550.4 692.6 192.3 111.3 554.2 19971 1573.8 723.0 196.2 89.4 565.2 19972 1609.1 740.1 199.9 96.7 572.4 19973 1648.1 759.0 211.5 97.2 580.4 19974 1677.8 781.5 209.3 96.2 590.8 19981 1704.8 803.3 206.2 95.8 599.5 19982 1734.5 824.0 207.2 96.4 606.9 19983 1770.3 847.3 209.9 97.7 615.4 19984 1793.4 868.1 202.6 99.6 623.1 19991 1826.5 877.9 212.6 99.5 636.5 19992 1853.1 892.1 218.1 100.0 642.9 19993 1879.4 907.4 219.2 101.9 650.9 19994 1909.0 922.5 221.9 103.7 661.0 20001 1937.4 939.9 220.9 105.4 671.2 20002 1967.3 958.4 220.2 107.0 681.7 20003 1997.2 976.7 219.6 108.7 692.2 20004 2026.5 994.5 219.4 110.2 702.4 20011 2055.8 1011.9 219.6 111.8 712.6 20012 2084.6 1029.2 219.7 113.3 722.5 20013 2112.6 1045.9 219.8 114.7 732.2 20014 2140.1 1062.2 220.0 116.2 741.7 20021 2167.2 1078.4 220.1 117.6 751.1 20022 2194.2 1094.4 220.3 119.0 760.4 20023 2221.0 1110.2 220.7 120.4 769.7 20024 2247.8 1126.0 221.2 121.7 778.9 20031 2274.7 1141.7 221.8 123.1 788.2 20032 2301.9 1157.4 222.6 124.5 797.5 20033 2329.3 1173.2 223.4 125.8 806.8 20034 2356.7 1189.0 224.3 127.2 816.3 20041 2384.4 1204.8 225.2 128.6 825.8 20042 2412.3 1220.7 226.1 130.1 835.5 20043 2440.7 1236.9 227.1 131.5 845.2 20044 2469.3 1253.0 228.2 132.9 855.1
Quar. EXPG PUG-IGZ TRGH TRGR TRGS INTG SUBG SGP
19961 1623.4 441.8 670.0 16.8 185.5 273.9 35.4 -176.4 19962 1632.6 447.0 676.1 8.6 194.0 271.5 35.4 -137.0 19963 1633.5 442.9 680.2 9.0 193.0 273.7 34.7 -130.1 19964 1654.3 449.4 685.9 19.9 189.2 275.1 34.8 -103.9 19971 1661.1 452.7 702.6 6.7 192.8 273.6 32.7 -87.3 19972 1672.2 461.6 705.6 7.1 192.2 275.2 30.5 -63.1 19973 1675.9 458.1 708.3 7.4 195.9 277.1 29.1 -27.8 19974 1694.5 455.6 709.8 18.8 201.7 279.4 29.2 -16.7 19981 1680.0 445.1 716.8 7.6 202.1 279.8 28.6 24.8 19982 1690.8 457.4 718.0 6.2 200.8 280.0 28.4 43.7 19983 1710.7 451.4 721.9 9.1 220.2 279.6 28.5 59.6 19984 1733.6 460.0 723.5 18.7 214.2 274.3 42.9 59.8 19991 1728.9 467.0 736.6 6.8 219.9 266.0 32.6 97.6 19992 1734.9 465.2 740.5 9.2 215.7 264.8 39.5 118.2 19993 1743.8 473.4 746.6 7.5 227.7 259.4 29.2 135.6 19994 1752.8 478.6 755.8 7.5 230.9 250.8 29.2 156.2 20001 1769.2 484.0 765.0 7.5 234.2 249.3 29.2 168.2 20002 1787.0 489.4 774.4 7.5 237.5 248.9 29.2 180.3 20003 1804.7 494.9 783.9 7.5 240.9 248.2 29.2 192.5 20004 1820.9 500.5 793.6 7.5 244.3 245.8 29.2 205.6 20011 1844.1 506.2 809.0 7.5 249.1 243.1 29.2 211.8 20012 1868.0 511.8 824.7 7.5 253.9 240.9 29.2 216.5 20013 1891.7 517.5 840.7 7.5 258.8 238.0 29.2 220.9 20014 1915.3 523.1 857.0 7.5 263.9 234.6 29.2 224.8 20021 1939.8 528.7 873.7 7.5 269.0 231.7 29.2 227.4 20022 1965.1 534.4 890.7 7.5 274.2 229.2 29.2 229.0 20023 1990.8 539.9 908.0 7.5 279.6 226.7 29.2 230.1 20024 2017.1 545.5 925.6 7.5 285.0 224.3 29.2 230.6 20031 2043.9 551.1 943.6 7.5 290.5 222.0 29.2 230.8 20032 2071.2 556.7 961.9 7.5 296.2 219.8 29.2 230.7 20033 2098.7 562.3 980.6 7.5 301.9 217.2 29.2 230.6 20034 2125.7 567.9 999.6 7.5 307.8 213.7 29.2 231.0 20041 2152.4 573.5 1019.1 7.5 313.8 209.4 29.2 232.0 20042 2179.7 579.1 1038.9 7.5 319.9 205.2 29.2 232.6 20043 2207.5 584.8 1059.0 7.5 326.1 200.9 29.2 233.2 20044 2235.4 590.5 1079.6 7.5 332.4 196.2 29.2 233.9
RECG Total Receipts TPG Personal Tax TCG Corporate Tax IBTG Indirect Business Tax SIG Social Insurance Contributions EXPG Total Current Expenditures PUG-IGZ Consumption Expenditures TRGH Transfer Payments to Persons TRGR Transfer Payments to Rest of the World TRGS Grants in Aid to S&L Governments INTG Net Interest Paid SUBG Subsidies less Current Surplus SGP NIPA Surplus(+) or Deficit(-)
Table F3: Forecasts of the State and Local Government Budget
Table F3
US Model Forecasts of the S&L Government Budget
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Quar. RECS TFS TCS IBTS SIS TRGS
19961 940.4 193.2 32.4 516.4 12.9 185.5 19962 962.2 198.1 33.3 524.2 12.6 194.0 19963 966.1 201.7 33.1 526.0 12.3 193.0 19964 972.9 205.5 33.3 533.0 11.9 189.2 19971 991.2 211.2 32.7 543.1 11.4 192.8 19972 997.3 214.3 33.3 546.4 11.1 192.2 19973 1016.4 219.6 35.3 554.8 10.8 195.9 19974 1031.0 224.5 34.8 559.3 10.7 201.7 19981 1042.1 227.8 33.7 567.7 10.8 202.1 19982 1053.2 234.0 33.9 573.8 10.7 200.8 19983 1085.3 241.0 34.4 579.0 10.7 220.2 19984 1101.1 244.9 33.1 598.2 10.7 214.2 19991 1110.0 246.9 35.4 597.1 10.7 219.9 19992 1117.1 247.3 36.4 606.8 10.9 215.7 19993 1145.7 252.6 36.6 617.6 11.2 227.7 19994 1164.5 256.8 37.0 628.3 11.4 230.9 20001 1183.0 261.6 36.9 638.7 11.7 234.2 20002 1201.6 266.7 36.7 648.7 11.9 237.5 20003 1220.0 271.8 36.7 658.5 12.1 240.9 20004 1238.1 276.6 36.6 668.1 12.4 244.3 20011 1257.3 281.5 36.6 677.5 12.6 249.1 20012 1276.3 286.2 36.7 686.6 12.9 253.9 20013 1295.0 290.9 36.7 695.4 13.1 258.8 20014 1313.5 295.4 36.7 704.1 13.4 263.9 20021 1331.9 299.8 36.7 712.6 13.6 269.0 20022 1350.2 304.2 36.8 721.1 13.9 274.2 20023 1368.6 308.6 36.8 729.4 14.2 279.6 20024 1387.0 313.0 36.9 737.7 14.4 285.0 20031 1405.6 317.3 37.0 746.1 14.7 290.5 20032 1424.3 321.7 37.1 754.4 15.0 296.2 20033 1443.2 326.0 37.3 762.8 15.2 301.9 20034 1462.3 330.4 37.4 771.2 15.5 307.8 20041 1481.5 334.7 37.6 779.7 15.8 313.8 20042 1501.0 339.1 37.7 788.3 16.1 319.9 20043 1520.8 343.6 37.9 796.9 16.3 326.1 20044 1540.9 348.0 38.1 805.7 16.6 332.4
Quar. EXPS PUS-ISZ TRSH INTS DRS SUBS SSP
19961 923.5 712.5 222.6 0.8 0.3 -12.1 16.9 19962 935.0 723.0 223.9 1.0 0.3 -12.6 27.2 19963 943.9 730.6 225.3 1.0 0.3 -12.7 22.2 19964 953.5 740.0 225.6 0.8 0.4 -12.5 19.4 19971 965.5 751.0 226.5 0.2 0.3 -11.9 25.7 19972 973.6 759.1 227.3 -0.5 0.4 -11.9 23.7 19973 985.6 770.5 228.5 -0.8 0.3 -12.3 30.8 19974 1001.3 782.8 229.5 -1.3 0.4 -9.3 29.7 19981 1010.1 791.5 231.4 -1.8 0.4 -10.6 32.0 19982 1022.3 802.7 233.4 -2.2 0.3 -11.3 30.9 19983 1035.3 813.8 235.7 -2.2 0.4 -11.6 50.0 19984 1047.0 822.2 238.5 -1.8 0.3 -11.6 54.1 19991 1061.4 832.4 241.9 -1.0 0.3 -11.6 48.6 19992 1079.4 848.4 243.6 -0.7 0.3 -11.6 37.7 19993 1099.6 866.2 245.9 -0.5 0.3 -11.7 46.1 19994 1115.1 879.2 248.4 -0.5 0.3 -11.7 49.4 20001 1130.6 892.5 250.6 -0.5 0.3 -11.7 52.4 20002 1146.5 906.1 252.9 -0.5 0.3 -11.7 55.1 20003 1163.0 920.0 255.5 -0.5 0.3 -11.7 56.9 20004 1180.1 934.0 258.5 -0.5 0.3 -11.7 58.0 20011 1197.6 948.3 261.8 -0.5 0.3 -11.7 59.7 20012 1215.5 962.6 265.4 -0.5 0.3 -11.7 60.7 20013 1233.8 977.0 269.3 -0.5 0.3 -11.7 61.2 20014 1252.4 991.5 273.3 -0.5 0.3 -11.7 61.1 20021 1271.1 1006.0 277.6 -0.5 0.3 -11.7 60.7 20022 1290.2 1020.6 282.0 -0.5 0.3 -11.7 60.1 20023 1309.4 1035.3 286.6 -0.5 0.3 -11.7 59.2 20024 1328.7 1050.0 291.2 -0.5 0.3 -11.7 58.3 20031 1348.3 1064.8 295.9 -0.5 0.3 -11.7 57.3 20032 1368.0 1079.7 300.8 -0.5 0.3 -11.7 56.3 20033 1387.9 1094.7 305.7 -0.5 0.3 -11.7 55.3 20034 1407.9 1109.8 310.7 -0.5 0.3 -11.7 54.3 20041 1428.2 1125.0 315.7 -0.5 0.3 -11.7 53.3 20042 1448.7 1140.3 320.8 -0.5 0.3 -11.7 52.4 20043 1469.4 1155.8 326.0 -0.5 0.3 -11.7 51.5 20044 1490.3 1171.5 331.3 -0.5 0.3 -11.7 50.6
RECS Total Receipts TPS Personal Tax TCS Corporate Tax IBTS Indirect Business Tax SIS Social Insurance Contributions TRGS Grants in Aid from Federal Government EXPS Total Current Expenditures PUS-ISZ Consumption Expenditures TRSH Transfer Payments to Persons INTS Net Interest Paid DRS Dividends Received SUBS Subsidies less Current Surplus SSP NIPA Surplus(+) or Deficit(-)
Table F4 Forecasts of Savings Flows
Table F4
US Model Forecasts of Savings Flows
Savings by Sector
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Quar. SH SF SB SR SG SS
19961 248.9 72.0 1.4 90.7 -284.7 -128.2 19962 177.7 59.5 -5.2 106.8 -203.6 -135.2 19963 168.3 5.3 -15.4 134.3 -185.6 -106.9 19964 178.0 20.8 -15.2 111.0 -161.6 -133.0 19971 158.0 -21.8 9.9 117.3 -131.9 -131.5 19972 215.1 -58.6 13.7 103.8 -112.0 -162.0 19973 182.2 -78.4 15.5 126.7 -88.7 -157.3 19974 160.8 -122.5 18.8 147.0 -74.2 -129.9 19981 123.7 -143.2 21.8 152.1 -18.4 -135.9 19982 85.3 -152.1 20.2 191.2 -17.1 -127.5 19983 78.2 -224.8 23.2 232.7 -3.4 -105.9 19984 77.7 -221.3 23.9 230.0 -8.0 -102.3 19991 19.1 -227.5 34.6 255.8 38.7 -120.6 19992 -9.7 -246.5 30.9 303.7 48.5 -126.9 19993 -32.1 -283.0 28.5 338.5 68.0 -119.9 19994 -46.3 -303.4 29.7 346.8 88.6 -115.5 20001 -55.6 -317.9 31.0 353.3 100.6 -111.3 20002 -62.6 -333.0 32.3 358.1 112.7 -107.6 20003 -69.9 -345.4 33.6 361.5 124.9 -104.6 20004 -79.5 -354.3 34.9 363.3 138.0 -102.3 20011 -82.4 -362.4 36.1 364.1 144.1 -99.5 20012 -83.9 -369.0 37.4 364.0 148.9 -97.3 20013 -84.9 -374.3 38.6 363.1 153.3 -95.7 20014 -85.5 -378.3 39.8 361.4 157.1 -94.5 20021 -85.0 -381.3 40.9 359.2 159.8 -93.7 20022 -83.9 -383.1 42.1 356.7 161.4 -93.1 20023 -82.7 -384.1 43.2 353.8 162.5 -92.7 20024 -81.5 -384.2 44.2 350.8 163.0 -92.4 20031 -80.3 -383.8 45.3 347.7 163.2 -92.1 20032 -79.2 -382.9 46.3 344.6 163.0 -91.8 20033 -78.4 -381.9 47.3 341.5 162.9 -91.5 20034 -78.2 -380.9 48.2 338.6 163.4 -91.1 20041 -78.5 -379.9 49.2 335.7 164.3 -90.8 20042 -78.9 -378.8 50.2 332.9 165.0 -90.4 20043 -79.5 -377.6 51.1 330.4 165.5 -89.9 20044 -80.7 -376.2 52.0 328.0 166.2 -89.4 SH Saving, Households SF Saving, Firms SB Saving, Financial SR Saving, Foreign SG Saving, Federal SS Saving, State and Local
NIPA Table 1.1
NIPA Table 1.1
US Model Forecasts Gross Domestic Product
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Table 1.1 Quar. 1 2 3 4 5
19961 7629.6 5130.4 606.4 1539.6 2984.4 19962 7782.7 5218.1 621.3 1569.4 3027.4 19963 7859.2 5263.7 616.7 1578.8 3068.2 19964 7981.3 5337.8 621.5 1608.4 3107.9 19971 8125.9 5430.8 636.1 1630.5 3164.2 19972 8259.5 5466.3 627.8 1627.1 3211.4 19973 8364.7 5569.2 651.9 1652.3 3265.0 19974 8453.0 5631.4 655.8 1657.1 3318.5 19981 8610.6 5714.7 679.2 1674.6 3360.9 19982 8683.7 5816.2 693.9 1701.2 3421.1 19983 8798.0 5889.6 696.9 1716.6 3476.1 19984 8947.5 5973.7 722.8 1742.9 3508.0 19991 9072.7 6090.8 739.0 1787.8 3564.0 19992 9146.2 6200.7 751.6 1824.8 3624.3 19993 9276.4 6296.0 760.7 1854.0 3681.3 19994 9425.6 6405.1 774.9 1883.7 3746.6 20001 9562.7 6511.1 788.3 1912.2 3810.6 20002 9707.4 6613.4 800.3 1939.0 3874.1 20003 9851.4 6713.1 811.2 1964.5 3937.3 20004 9995.3 6811.3 820.9 1988.8 4001.6 20011 10139.3 6906.5 829.4 2011.9 4065.1 20012 10281.1 6999.1 837.1 2034.2 4127.9 20013 10420.8 7089.5 844.1 2055.6 4189.8 20014 10558.5 7178.0 850.5 2076.6 4250.9 20021 10694.6 7264.9 856.6 2097.1 4311.2 20022 10829.6 7350.8 862.6 2117.4 4370.8 20023 10964.0 7436.0 868.5 2137.6 4429.9 20024 11098.3 7520.8 874.6 2157.7 4488.5 20031 11232.8 7605.5 880.9 2177.9 4546.7 20032 11368.0 7690.4 887.4 2198.2 4604.8 20033 11503.9 7775.7 894.4 2218.7 4662.7 20034 11640.8 7861.7 901.7 2239.3 4720.7 20041 11778.7 7948.2 909.4 2260.2 4778.7 20042 11917.6 8035.7 917.5 2281.3 4836.9 20043 12057.7 8124.1 926.0 2302.6 4895.4 20044 12199.0 8213.5 935.0 2324.2 4954.3
Quar. 6 7 8 11 12
19961 1172.4 1165.6 865.1 300.5 6.8 19962 1231.5 1201.7 885.4 316.3 29.8 19963 1282.6 1232.6 913.6 319.0 50.0 19964 1284.4 1250.9 933.7 317.2 33.5 19971 1327.0 1274.1 952.7 321.4 52.9 19972 1392.1 1299.5 972.7 326.8 92.6 19973 1396.0 1338.4 1007.7 330.7 57.6 19974 1419.6 1349.4 1011.4 338.0 70.2 19981 1514.3 1415.4 1065.9 349.5 98.9 19982 1495.0 1454.2 1090.8 363.4 40.8 19983 1535.4 1461.7 1087.2 374.5 73.7 19984 1580.3 1508.9 1121.4 387.5 71.4 19991 1594.3 1543.3 1139.9 403.4 51.0 19992 1585.4 1567.8 1155.4 412.4 17.6 19993 1631.2 1600.1 1191.0 409.1 31.1 19994 1661.1 1614.0 1220.5 393.5 47.1 20001 1679.7 1631.5 1246.5 385.1 48.2 20002 1707.5 1655.0 1272.8 382.2 52.5 20003 1735.5 1683.1 1301.1 382.0 52.4 20004 1763.1 1711.2 1328.0 383.2 51.9 20011 1792.5 1739.7 1354.2 385.5 52.8 20012 1821.2 1768.5 1380.1 388.4 52.7 20013 1849.1 1797.0 1405.2 391.7 52.1 20014 1876.4 1824.9 1429.6 395.3 51.5 20021 1902.8 1852.3 1453.3 399.0 50.5 20022 1928.7 1879.2 1476.1 403.1 49.5 20023 1954.5 1905.7 1498.3 407.5 48.8 20024 1980.4 1932.1 1520.0 412.1 48.3 20031 2006.4 1958.3 1541.2 417.1 48.0 20032 2032.6 1984.6 1562.2 422.4 48.1 20033 2059.3 2011.0 1583.0 427.9 48.3 20034 2086.2 2037.4 1603.7 433.8 48.8 20041 2113.4 2064.0 1624.3 439.8 49.3 20042 2140.8 2090.8 1644.8 446.0 50.0 20043 2168.4 2117.7 1665.4 452.4 50.6 20044 2196.1 2144.8 1685.9 458.9 51.3
Quar. 13 14 17 20 21 24
19961 -75.8 853.3 929.1 1402.6 530.6 872.0 19962 -89.8 864.7 954.5 1422.9 537.2 885.7 19963 -110.5 865.6 976.1 1423.4 529.1 894.3 19964 -79.7 913.1 992.8 1438.8 529.4 909.4 19971 -87.7 929.6 1017.3 1455.8 530.2 925.6 19972 -77.5 965.3 1042.8 1478.6 543.0 935.6 19973 -90.6 988.6 1079.2 1490.1 540.9 949.2 19974 -97.4 988.6 1086.0 1499.4 537.1 962.3 19981 -117.4 974.3 1091.7 1499.0 526.1 972.9 19982 -153.9 960.1 1114.0 1526.4 542.2 984.2 19983 -165.7 949.1 1114.8 1538.7 539.7 999.0 19984 -161.3 981.8 1143.1 1554.8 546.7 1008.1 19991 -201.6 966.9 1168.5 1589.2 557.4 1031.8 19992 -245.8 978.2 1224.0 1605.9 561.6 1044.3 19993 -282.0 1009.9 1291.9 1631.2 567.7 1063.5 19994 -290.0 1023.0 1313.0 1649.4 572.9 1076.5 20001 -296.1 1036.3 1332.4 1668.1 578.3 1089.8 20002 -300.7 1049.9 1350.6 1687.1 583.7 1103.4 20003 -303.7 1063.6 1367.3 1706.5 589.2 1117.3 20004 -305.2 1077.4 1382.7 1726.2 594.8 1131.3 20011 -305.7 1091.3 1397.0 1746.0 600.5 1145.6 20012 -305.3 1105.2 1410.5 1766.0 606.1 1159.9 20013 -304.0 1119.2 1423.1 1786.1 611.8 1174.3 20014 -302.0 1133.1 1435.1 1806.2 617.4 1188.8 20021 -299.5 1146.9 1446.4 1826.4 623.0 1203.3 20022 -296.6 1160.7 1457.3 1846.6 628.7 1217.9 20023 -293.4 1174.5 1467.9 1866.9 634.2 1232.6 20024 -290.0 1188.3 1478.3 1887.2 639.8 1247.3 20031 -286.6 1202.1 1488.6 1907.5 645.4 1262.1 20032 -283.1 1215.9 1498.9 1928.0 651.0 1277.0 20033 -279.6 1229.7 1509.3 1948.6 656.6 1292.0 20034 -276.3 1243.5 1519.8 1969.3 662.2 1307.1 20041 -273.0 1257.4 1530.5 1990.1 667.8 1322.3 20042 -269.9 1271.4 1541.3 2011.1 673.4 1337.6 20043 -267.0 1285.4 1552.4 2032.2 679.1 1353.1 20044 -264.2 1299.6 1563.8 2053.5 684.8 1368.8
Line 1 Gross Domestic Product Line 2 Personal Consumption Expenditures Line 3 Durable Goods Line 4 Nondurable Goods Line 5 Services Line 6 Gross Private Domestic Investment Line 7 Fixed Investment Line 8 Nonresidential Line 11 Residential Line 12 Change in Business Inventories Line 13 Net Exports of Goods and Services Line 14 Exports Line 17 Imports Line 20 Government Consumption Expenditures and Gross Investment Line 21 Federal Line 22 State and Local
NIPA Table 1.2
NIPA Table 1.2
US Model Forecasts Gross Domestic Product
Billions of 1996 Dollars
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Table 1.2 Quar. 1 2 3 4 5
19961 7671.4 5170.4 601.7 1553.9 3014.8 19962 7800.5 5227.5 620.4 1569.9 3037.2 19963 7843.3 5255.5 618.1 1578.6 3058.8 19964 7937.5 5296.8 625.7 1593.9 3077.2 19971 8033.4 5361.2 642.1 1609.0 3110.1 19972 8134.8 5384.9 639.7 1608.2 3137.0 19973 8214.8 5472.4 669.7 1630.7 3172.0 19974 8277.3 5517.6 678.0 1631.8 3207.8 19981 8412.7 5594.0 704.9 1654.9 3234.2 19982 8457.2 5678.0 723.9 1681.9 3272.2 19983 8536.0 5732.8 731.2 1692.0 3309.6 19984 8659.2 5800.6 766.0 1712.6 3322.0 19991 8737.9 5894.8 788.8 1749.5 3356.5 19992 8778.6 5969.0 806.1 1763.7 3399.2 19993 8882.6 6032.9 819.9 1779.3 3433.7 19994 8964.4 6101.1 830.2 1797.0 3473.8 20001 9032.9 6164.8 839.5 1813.3 3512.0 20002 9106.2 6223.7 847.2 1827.6 3548.9 20003 9177.6 6279.0 853.5 1840.5 3585.0 20004 9247.7 6332.2 858.5 1852.0 3621.6 20011 9317.2 6382.1 862.3 1862.5 3657.3 20012 9384.5 6429.5 865.2 1872.0 3692.2 20013 9449.9 6474.8 867.5 1881.0 3726.2 20014 9513.9 6518.4 869.2 1889.6 3759.6 20021 9576.8 6561.0 870.7 1898.0 3792.3 20022 9639.1 6602.9 872.2 1906.3 3824.5 20023 9701.4 6644.5 873.7 1914.6 3856.3 20024 9763.9 6686.0 875.3 1923.0 3887.7 20031 9826.8 6727.6 877.3 1931.4 3918.8 20032 9890.4 6769.5 879.6 1940.1 3949.8 20033 9954.6 6811.9 882.3 1948.9 3980.7 20034 10019.6 6854.7 885.4 1957.9 4011.4 20041 10085.2 6898.1 888.8 1967.1 4042.2 20042 10151.4 6942.1 892.7 1976.5 4072.9 20043 10218.2 6986.8 897.0 1986.0 4103.7 20044 10285.5 7032.1 901.7 1995.8 4134.6
Quar. 6 7 8 11 12
19961 1170.8 1165.2 861.6 303.6 5.6 19962 1234.0 1203.7 885.6 318.1 30.3 19963 1282.8 1231.6 914.3 317.3 51.2 19964 1283.1 1250.2 936.2 314.0 32.9 19971 1325.7 1274.2 957.9 316.3 51.5 19972 1393.9 1300.8 980.8 320.0 93.1 19973 1397.7 1338.5 1018.0 320.5 59.2 19974 1424.5 1351.8 1026.1 325.7 72.7 19981 1532.4 1425.1 1088.6 336.5 107.3 19982 1510.7 1467.6 1120.2 347.4 43.1 19983 1550.6 1474.5 1120.3 354.2 76.1 19984 1594.1 1523.4 1160.8 362.6 70.7 19991 1606.5 1556.4 1182.7 373.7 50.1 19992 1595.7 1581.7 1202.9 378.8 14.0 19993 1646.2 1618.1 1245.4 372.7 28.1 19994 1667.3 1625.0 1268.7 356.3 42.3 20001 1677.5 1634.5 1287.9 346.6 43.0 20002 1695.7 1649.1 1307.1 342.0 46.6 20003 1714.1 1667.9 1328.1 339.8 46.2 20004 1731.7 1686.2 1347.4 338.7 45.5 20011 1750.7 1704.6 1365.9 338.7 46.1 20012 1768.9 1723.2 1383.9 339.3 45.7 20013 1786.3 1741.4 1401.1 340.3 44.9 20014 1803.0 1758.9 1417.5 341.4 44.1 20021 1819.0 1775.9 1433.1 342.8 43.0 20022 1834.5 1792.5 1448.0 344.5 42.0 20023 1849.8 1808.6 1462.2 346.4 41.1 20024 1865.1 1824.6 1475.9 348.6 40.5 20031 1880.5 1840.4 1489.2 351.1 40.1 20032 1896.1 1856.1 1502.3 353.9 39.9 20033 1911.9 1871.9 1515.1 356.8 39.9 20034 1927.9 1887.8 1527.7 360.0 40.1 20041 1944.0 1903.6 1540.3 363.3 40.4 20042 1960.3 1919.5 1552.7 366.8 40.8 20043 1976.6 1935.4 1565.1 370.4 41.1 20044 1992.9 1951.4 1577.3 374.1 41.5
Quar. 13 14 17 20
19961 -75.5 845.6 921.1 1404.4 19962 -90.6 859.8 950.4 1430.2 19963 -115.8 867.1 982.9 1422.1 19964 -73.9 924.2 998.1 1431.1 19971 -90.8 943.9 1034.7 1437.0 19972 -100.9 979.9 1080.8 1457.1 19973 -118.7 1006.8 1125.5 1463.2 19974 -128.7 1011.2 1139.9 1462.9 19981 -171.7 1007.3 1179.0 1459.0 19982 -218.4 997.2 1215.6 1480.6 19983 -238.0 993.0 1231.0 1485.1 19984 -232.3 1030.8 1263.1 1495.6 19991 -284.5 1016.4 1300.9 1514.3 19992 -319.0 1026.4 1345.4 1519.3 19993 -343.0 1056.9 1399.9 1531.7 19994 -355.8 1063.4 1419.3 1537.1 20001 -366.6 1070.0 1436.7 1542.4 20002 -375.9 1076.7 1452.6 1547.9 20003 -383.6 1083.3 1466.9 1553.3 20004 -389.7 1090.0 1479.7 1558.8 20011 -394.6 1096.8 1491.4 1564.3 20012 -398.4 1103.6 1502.0 1569.8 20013 -401.3 1110.4 1511.7 1575.4 20014 -403.3 1117.3 1520.6 1581.0 20021 -404.6 1124.2 1528.8 1586.7 20022 -405.4 1131.2 1536.5 1592.3 20023 -405.7 1138.2 1543.9 1598.0 20024 -405.7 1145.2 1550.9 1603.8 20031 -405.6 1152.3 1557.9 1609.5 20032 -405.3 1159.4 1564.7 1615.3 20033 -405.0 1166.6 1571.7 1621.1 20034 -404.8 1173.8 1578.7 1627.0 20041 -404.7 1181.1 1585.8 1632.9 20042 -404.6 1188.4 1593.1 1638.8 20043 -404.8 1195.8 1600.6 1644.8 20044 -405.1 1203.2 1608.3 1650.8
Line 1 Gross Domestic Product Line 2 Personal Consumption Expenditures Line 3 Durable Goods Line 4 Nondurable Goods Line 5 Services Line 6 Gross Private Domestic Investment Line 7 Fixed Investment Line 8 Nonresidential Line 11 Residential Line 12 Change in Business Inventories Line 13 Net Exports of Goods and Services Line 14 Exports Line 17 Imports Line 20 Government Consumption Expenditures and Gross Investment
NIPA Table 3.2
NIPA Table 3.2
US Model Forecasts Fed. Gov. Receipts and Expenditures
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Table 3.2 Quar. 1 2 6 9 13
19961 1447.0 637.5 187.3 90.4 531.8 19962 1495.6 674.4 192.0 89.0 540.2 19963 1503.4 675.6 190.9 89.7 547.2 19964 1550.4 692.6 192.3 111.3 554.2 19971 1573.8 723.0 196.2 89.4 565.2 19972 1609.1 740.1 199.9 96.7 572.4 19973 1648.1 759.0 211.5 97.2 580.4 19974 1677.8 781.5 209.3 96.2 590.8 19981 1704.8 803.3 206.2 95.8 599.5 19982 1734.5 824.0 207.2 96.4 606.9 19983 1770.3 847.3 209.9 97.7 615.4 19984 1793.4 868.1 202.6 99.6 623.1 19991 1826.5 877.9 212.6 99.5 636.5 19992 1853.1 892.1 218.1 100.0 642.9 19993 1879.4 907.4 219.2 101.9 650.9 19994 1909.0 922.5 221.9 103.7 661.0 20001 1937.4 939.9 220.9 105.4 671.2 20002 1967.3 958.4 220.2 107.0 681.7 20003 1997.2 976.7 219.6 108.7 692.2 20004 2026.5 994.5 219.4 110.2 702.4 20011 2055.8 1011.9 219.6 111.8 712.6 20012 2084.6 1029.2 219.7 113.3 722.5 20013 2112.6 1045.9 219.8 114.7 732.2 20014 2140.1 1062.2 220.0 116.2 741.7 20021 2167.2 1078.4 220.1 117.6 751.1 20022 2194.2 1094.4 220.3 119.0 760.4 20023 2221.0 1110.2 220.7 120.4 769.7 20024 2247.8 1126.0 221.2 121.7 778.9 20031 2274.7 1141.7 221.8 123.1 788.2 20032 2301.9 1157.4 222.6 124.5 797.5 20033 2329.3 1173.2 223.4 125.8 806.8 20034 2356.7 1189.0 224.3 127.2 816.3 20041 2384.4 1204.8 225.2 128.6 825.8 20042 2412.3 1220.7 226.1 130.1 835.5 20043 2440.7 1236.9 227.1 131.5 845.2 20044 2469.3 1253.0 228.2 132.9 855.1
Quar . 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 25 29
19961 1623.4 441.8 686.8 670.0 16.8 185.5 273.9 35.4 -176.4 19962 1632.6 447.0 684.7 676.1 8.6 194.0 271.5 35.4 -137.0 19963 1633.5 442.9 689.2 680.2 9.0 193.0 273.7 34.7 -130.1 19964 1654.3 449.4 705.8 685.9 19.9 189.2 275.1 34.8 -103.9 19971 1661.1 452.7 709.3 702.6 6.7 192.8 273.6 32.7 -87.3 19972 1672.2 461.6 712.7 705.6 7.1 192.2 275.2 30.5 -63.1 19973 1675.9 458.1 715.7 708.3 7.4 195.9 277.1 29.1 -27.8 19974 1694.5 455.6 728.6 709.8 18.8 201.7 279.4 29.2 -16.7 19981 1680.0 445.1 724.4 716.8 7.6 202.1 279.8 28.6 24.8 19982 1690.8 457.4 724.2 718.0 6.2 200.8 280.0 28.4 43.7 19983 1710.7 451.4 731.0 721.9 9.1 220.2 279.6 28.5 59.6 19984 1733.6 460.0 742.2 723.5 18.7 214.2 274.3 42.9 59.8 19991 1728.9 467.0 743.4 736.6 6.8 219.9 266.0 32.6 97.6 19992 1734.9 465.2 749.7 740.5 9.2 215.7 264.8 39.5 118.2 19993 1743.8 473.4 754.1 746.6 7.5 227.7 259.4 29.2 135.6 19994 1752.8 478.6 763.3 755.8 7.5 230.9 250.8 29.2 156.2 20001 1769.2 484.0 772.5 765.0 7.5 234.2 249.3 29.2 168.2 20002 1787.0 489.4 781.9 774.4 7.5 237.5 248.9 29.2 180.3 20003 1804.7 494.9 791.4 783.9 7.5 240.9 248.2 29.2 192.5 20004 1820.9 500.5 801.1 793.6 7.5 244.3 245.8 29.2 205.6 20011 1844.1 506.2 816.5 809.0 7.5 249.1 243.1 29.2 211.8 20012 1868.0 511.8 832.2 824.7 7.5 253.9 240.9 29.2 216.5 20013 1891.7 517.5 848.2 840.7 7.5 258.8 238.0 29.2 220.9 20014 1915.3 523.1 864.5 857.0 7.5 263.9 234.6 29.2 224.8 20021 1939.8 528.7 881.2 873.7 7.5 269.0 231.7 29.2 227.4 20022 1965.1 534.4 898.2 890.7 7.5 274.2 229.2 29.2 229.0 20023 1990.8 539.9 915.5 908.0 7.5 279.6 226.7 29.2 230.1 20024 2017.1 545.5 933.1 925.6 7.5 285.0 224.3 29.2 230.6 20031 2043.9 551.1 951.1 943.6 7.5 290.5 222.0 29.2 230.8 20032 2071.2 556.7 969.4 961.9 7.5 296.2 219.8 29.2 230.7 20033 2098.7 562.3 988.1 980.6 7.5 301.9 217.2 29.2 230.6 20034 2125.7 567.9 1007.1 999.6 7.5 307.8 213.7 29.2 231.0 20041 2152.4 573.5 1026.6 1019.1 7.5 313.8 209.4 29.2 232.0 20042 2179.7 579.1 1046.4 1038.9 7.5 319.9 205.2 29.2 232.6 20043 2207.5 584.8 1066.5 1059.0 7.5 326.1 200.9 29.2 233.2 20044 2235.4 590.5 1087.1 1079.6 7.5 332.4 196.2 29.2 233.9
Line 1 Receipts Line 2 Personal Tax and Nontax Receipts Line 6 Corporate Profit Tax Accruals Line 9 Indirect Business Tax and Nontax Accruals Line 13 Contributions for Social Insurance Line 14 Current Expenditures Line 15 Consumption Expenditures Line 16 Transfer Payments (net) Line 17 To Persons Line 18 To Rest of the World (net) Line 19 Grants-in-Aid to State and Local Governments Line 20 Net Interest Paid Line 25 Subsidies less Current Surplus of Government Enterprises Line 29 NIPA Surplus(+) or Deficit(-)
NIPA Table 3.3
NIPA Table 3.3
US Model Forecasts S&L Gov. Receipts and Expenditures
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Table 3.3 Quar. 1 2 6 7 11 12
19961 940.4 193.2 32.4 516.4 12.9 185.5 19962 962.2 198.1 33.3 524.2 12.6 194.0 19963 966.1 201.7 33.1 526.0 12.3 193.0 19964 972.9 205.5 33.3 533.0 11.9 189.2 19971 991.2 211.2 32.7 543.1 11.4 192.8 19972 997.3 214.3 33.3 546.4 11.1 192.2 19973 1016.4 219.6 35.3 554.8 10.8 195.9 19974 1031.0 224.5 34.8 559.3 10.7 201.7 19981 1042.1 227.8 33.7 567.7 10.8 202.1 19982 1053.2 234.0 33.9 573.8 10.7 200.8 19983 1085.3 241.0 34.4 579.0 10.7 220.2 19984 1101.1 244.9 33.1 598.2 10.7 214.2 19991 1110.0 246.9 35.4 597.1 10.7 219.9 19992 1117.1 247.3 36.4 606.8 10.9 215.7 19993 1145.7 252.6 36.6 617.6 11.2 227.7 19994 1164.5 256.8 37.0 628.3 11.4 230.9 20001 1183.0 261.6 36.9 638.7 11.7 234.2 20002 1201.6 266.7 36.7 648.7 11.9 237.5 20003 1220.0 271.8 36.7 658.5 12.1 240.9 20004 1238.1 276.6 36.6 668.1 12.4 244.3 20011 1257.3 281.5 36.6 677.5 12.6 249.1 20012 1276.3 286.2 36.7 686.6 12.9 253.9 20013 1295.0 290.9 36.7 695.4 13.1 258.8 20014 1313.5 295.4 36.7 704.1 13.4 263.9 20021 1331.9 299.8 36.7 712.6 13.6 269.0 20022 1350.2 304.2 36.8 721.1 13.9 274.2 20023 1368.6 308.6 36.8 729.4 14.2 279.6 20024 1387.0 313.0 36.9 737.7 14.4 285.0 20031 1405.6 317.3 37.0 746.1 14.7 290.5 20032 1424.3 321.7 37.1 754.4 15.0 296.2 20033 1443.2 326.0 37.3 762.8 15.2 301.9 20034 1462.3 330.4 37.4 771.2 15.5 307.8 20041 1481.5 334.7 37.6 779.7 15.8 313.8 20042 1501.0 339.1 37.7 788.3 16.1 319.9 20043 1520.8 343.6 37.9 796.9 16.3 326.1 20044 1540.9 348.0 38.1 805.7 16.6 332.4
Quar. 13 14 15 16 19 20 23 24
19961 923.5 712.5 222.6 0.8 0.3 -12.1 0.0 16.9 19962 935.0 723.0 223.9 1.0 0.3 -12.6 0.0 27.2 19963 943.9 730.6 225.3 1.0 0.3 -12.7 0.0 22.2 19964 953.5 740.0 225.6 0.8 0.4 -12.5 0.0 19.4 19971 965.5 751.0 226.5 0.2 0.3 -11.9 0.0 25.7 19972 973.6 759.1 227.3 -0.5 0.4 -11.9 0.0 23.7 19973 985.6 770.5 228.5 -0.8 0.3 -12.3 0.0 30.8 19974 1001.3 782.8 229.5 -1.3 0.4 -9.3 0.0 29.7 19981 1010.1 791.5 231.4 -1.8 0.4 -10.6 0.0 32.0 19982 1022.3 802.7 233.4 -2.2 0.3 -11.3 0.0 30.9 19983 1035.3 813.8 235.7 -2.2 0.4 -11.6 0.0 50.0 19984 1047.0 822.2 238.5 -1.8 0.3 -11.6 0.0 54.1 19991 1061.4 832.4 241.9 -1.0 0.3 -11.6 0.0 48.6 19992 1079.4 848.4 243.6 -0.7 0.3 -11.6 0.0 37.7 19993 1099.6 866.2 245.9 -0.5 0.3 -11.7 0.0 46.1 19994 1115.1 879.2 248.4 -0.5 0.3 -11.7 0.0 49.4 20001 1130.6 892.5 250.6 -0.5 0.3 -11.7 0.0 52.4 20002 1146.5 906.1 252.9 -0.5 0.3 -11.7 0.0 55.1 20003 1163.0 920.0 255.5 -0.5 0.3 -11.7 0.0 56.9 20004 1180.1 934.0 258.5 -0.5 0.3 -11.7 0.0 58.0 20011 1197.6 948.3 261.8 -0.5 0.3 -11.7 0.0 59.7 20012 1215.5 962.6 265.4 -0.5 0.3 -11.7 0.0 60.7 20013 1233.8 977.0 269.3 -0.5 0.3 -11.7 0.0 61.2 20014 1252.4 991.5 273.3 -0.5 0.3 -11.7 0.0 61.1 20021 1271.1 1006.0 277.6 -0.5 0.3 -11.7 0.0 60.7 20022 1290.2 1020.6 282.0 -0.5 0.3 -11.7 0.0 60.1 20023 1309.4 1035.3 286.6 -0.5 0.3 -11.7 0.0 59.2 20024 1328.7 1050.0 291.2 -0.5 0.3 -11.7 0.0 58.3 20031 1348.3 1064.8 295.9 -0.5 0.3 -11.7 0.0 57.3 20032 1368.0 1079.7 300.8 -0.5 0.3 -11.7 0.0 56.3 20033 1387.9 1094.7 305.7 -0.5 0.3 -11.7 0.0 55.3 20034 1407.9 1109.8 310.7 -0.5 0.3 -11.7 0.0 54.3 20041 1428.2 1125.0 315.7 -0.5 0.3 -11.7 0.0 53.3 20042 1448.7 1140.3 320.8 -0.5 0.3 -11.7 0.0 52.4 20043 1469.4 1155.8 326.0 -0.5 0.3 -11.7 0.0 51.5 20044 1490.3 1171.5 331.3 -0.5 0.3 -11.7 0.0 50.6
Line 1 Receipts Line 2 Personal Tax and Nontax Receipts Line 6 Corporate Profit Tax Accruals Line 7 Indirect Business Tax and Nontax Accruals Line 11 Contributions for Social Insurance Line 12 Federal Grants-in-Aid Line 13 Current Expenditures Line 14 Consumption Expenditures Line 15 Transfer Payments to Persons Line 16 Net Interest Paid Line 19 Less: Dividends Received by Government Line 20 Subsidies less Current Surplus of Government Enterprises Line 23 Less: Wage Accruals Less Disbursements Line 24 NIPA Surplus(+) or Deficit(-)
NIPA Table 7.1
NIPA Table 7.1
US Model Forecasts of Price Indexes for GDP
Index numbers, 1996=100
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Table 7.1 Quar. 4 8 12 16 20
19961 99.5 99.2 100.8 99.1 99.0 19962 99.8 99.8 100.1 100.0 99.7 19963 100.2 100.2 99.8 100.0 100.3 19964 100.6 100.8 99.3 100.9 101.0 19971 101.2 101.3 99.1 101.3 101.7 19972 101.5 101.5 98.1 101.2 102.4 19973 101.8 101.8 97.3 101.3 102.9 19974 102.1 102.1 96.7 101.6 103.5 19981 102.4 102.2 96.4 101.2 103.9 19982 102.7 102.4 95.9 101.1 104.6 19983 103.1 102.7 95.3 101.5 105.0 19984 103.3 103.0 94.4 101.8 105.6 19991 103.8 103.3 93.7 102.2 106.2 19992 104.2 103.9 93.2 103.5 106.6 19993 104.4 104.4 92.8 104.2 107.2 19994 105.1 105.0 93.3 104.8 107.9 20001 105.9 105.6 93.9 105.5 108.5 20002 106.6 106.3 94.5 106.1 109.2 20003 107.3 106.9 95.0 106.7 109.8 20004 108.1 107.6 95.6 107.4 110.5 20011 108.8 108.2 96.2 108.0 111.1 20012 109.6 108.9 96.8 108.7 111.8 20013 110.3 109.5 97.3 109.3 112.4 20014 111.0 110.1 97.8 109.9 113.1 20021 111.7 110.7 98.4 110.5 113.7 20022 112.3 111.3 98.9 111.1 114.3 20023 113.0 111.9 99.4 111.6 114.9 20024 113.7 112.5 99.9 112.2 115.5 20031 114.3 113.0 100.4 112.8 116.0 20032 114.9 113.6 100.9 113.3 116.6 20033 115.6 114.2 101.4 113.8 117.1 20034 116.2 114.7 101.8 114.4 117.7 20041 116.8 115.2 102.3 114.9 118.2 20042 117.4 115.8 102.8 115.4 118.8 20043 118.0 116.3 103.2 115.9 119.3 20044 118.6 116.8 103.7 116.5 119.8
Quar. 28 32 44 48 60 72
19961 100.0 100.4 99.0 100.9 100.9 99.9 19962 99.8 100.0 99.4 100.6 100.4 99.5 19963 100.1 99.9 100.5 99.8 99.3 100.1 19964 100.1 99.7 101.0 98.8 99.5 100.5 19971 100.0 99.5 101.6 98.5 98.3 101.3 19972 99.9 99.2 102.1 98.5 96.5 101.5 19973 100.0 99.0 103.2 98.2 95.9 101.8 19974 99.8 98.6 103.8 97.8 95.3 102.5 19981 99.3 97.9 103.9 96.7 92.6 102.7 19982 99.1 97.4 104.6 96.3 91.6 103.1 19983 99.1 97.0 105.7 95.6 90.6 103.6 19984 99.0 96.6 106.9 95.2 90.5 104.0 19991 99.2 96.4 107.9 95.1 89.8 104.9 19992 99.1 96.1 108.9 95.3 91.0 105.7 19993 98.9 95.6 109.8 95.6 92.3 106.5 19994 99.3 96.2 110.4 96.2 92.5 107.3 20001 99.8 96.8 111.1 96.8 92.7 108.1 20002 100.4 97.4 111.8 97.5 93.0 109.0 20003 100.9 98.0 112.4 98.2 93.2 109.9 20004 101.5 98.6 113.1 98.8 93.4 110.7 20011 102.1 99.1 113.8 99.5 93.7 111.6 20012 102.6 99.7 114.5 100.2 93.9 112.5 20013 103.2 100.3 115.1 100.8 94.1 113.4 20014 103.8 100.9 115.8 101.4 94.4 114.2 20021 104.3 101.4 116.4 102.0 94.6 115.1 20022 104.8 101.9 117.0 102.6 94.8 116.0 20023 105.4 102.5 117.6 103.2 95.1 116.8 20024 105.9 103.0 118.2 103.8 95.3 117.7 20031 106.4 103.5 118.8 104.3 95.6 118.5 20032 106.9 104.0 119.4 104.9 95.8 119.4 20033 107.4 104.5 119.9 105.4 96.0 120.2 20034 107.9 105.0 120.5 105.9 96.3 121.0 20041 108.4 105.5 121.0 106.5 96.5 121.9 20042 108.9 105.9 121.6 107.0 96.8 122.7 20043 109.4 106.4 122.1 107.5 97.0 123.6 20044 109.9 106.9 122.7 108.0 97.2 124.4
Line 4 Gross Domestic Product Line 8 Personal Consumption Expenditures Line 12 Durable Goods Line 16 Nondurable Goods Line 20 Services Line 28 Fixed Investment Line 32 Nonresidential Line 44 Residential Line 48 Exports of Goods and Services Line 60 Imports of Goods and Services Line 72 Government Consumption Expenditures and Gross Investment