US Forecast: January 29, 2000
Forecast Period

2000:1--2004:4 (20 quarters)

Data

The forecast is based on the national income and product accounts (NIPA) data that were released on January 28, 2000.

The Latest Version of the US Model

For purposes of this forecast the US model has been reestimated through 1999:4. These estimates are presented in the "Chapter 5 tables" at the end of The US Model Workbook. The rest of the specification of the model is in Appendix A at the end of this workbook.

A complete discussion of the November 3, 1998, version of the US model is in Macroeconometric Modeling, which is the main reference for this site. The NIPA data have been revised back to 1959, and the revised data have been used. When necessary, data prior to 1959 were spliced to the new data. A few specification changes were made in the process of updating the model. The following is a list of the changes that have been made from the November 3, 1998, version.

  1. Equation 1 (CS, service consumption): The lagged value of the log of the asset variable, AA/POP, has been added. It now appears possible to pick up a wealth effect on service consumption. This change also pertains to the July 30, 1999, and November 5, 1999, versions of the model.
  2. Equation 3 (CD, durable expenditures): The lagged value of the asset variable, AA/POP, has been added. It now appears possible to pick up a wealth effect on durable expenditures. This change also pertains to the May 1, 1999, July 30, 1999, and November 5, 1999, versions of the model.
  3. Equation 5 (L1, labor force--men 25-54): The Z variable has been dropped. This change also pertains to the November 5, 1999, version of the model.
  4. Equation 6 (L2, labor force--women 25-54): The Z variable has been dropped. This change also pertains to the November 5, 1999, version of the model.
  5. Equation 7 (L3, labor force--all others 16+): The Z variable has been replaced by the unemployment rate, UR. This change also pertains to the November 5, 1999, version of the model.
  6. Equation 8 (LM, number of moonlighters): The Z variable has been replaced by the unemployment rate, UR. This change also pertains to the November 5, 1999, version of the model.
  7. Equation 10 (PF, private nonfarm price deflator): The gap variable has been replaced by the unemployment rate, UR. This change also pertains to the November 5, 1999, version of the model.
  8. Equation 12 (KK, stock of capital): This equation replaces the old equation 12, which explained IKF, nonresidential fixed investment. IKF is now explained by the identity 92, which before determined KK. Identity 92 now is: IKF = KK - (1 - DELK)*KK-1. The new equation 12 has on the left hand side logKK and on the right hand side logKK-1, logKK-2, logY, logY-1, logY-2, logY-3, logY-4, logY-5, and RB*(1-D2G-D2S). This change also pertains to the November 5, 1999, version of the model. Equation 12 for the January 30, 1999, May 1, 1999, and July 30, 1999, versions of the model differed from the equation in the November 3, 1998, version in that the interest rate variable was dropped.
  9. Equation 21 (CCF, capital consumption of the firm sector): This equation is now estimated under the assumption of first order serial correlation of the error term. This change also pertains to the November 5, 1999, version of the model.
  10. Equation 27 (IM, imports): The lagged value of the log of the asset variable, AA/POP, has been added. It now appears possible to pick up a wealth effect on imports. This change also pertains to the November 5, 1999, version of the model.
  11. Equation 30 (RS, three month Treasury bill rate): The variable JJS has been replaced by the unemployment rate, UR. The variable PCGDPR (percentage change in real GDP) has been replaced by the change in UR. The first change also pertains to the November 5, 1999, version of the model.
  12. Equation 89 (AA, total net wealth): This identity is now: AA = (AH + MH)/PH + (PIH*KH)/PH. This change allows capital gains on housing to affect AA. PIH*KH is an estimate of the nominal value of the housing stock. When housing prices increase faster than the overall price level, PIH increases relative to PH, and so (PIH*KH)/PH increases. Before the second term was only KH, which was in effect multiplying KH by PH instead of PIH.

Some of the above changes have lessened the reliance of the model on peak to peak interpolations. Variables Z, JJS, and the output gap variable have been replaced by UR. This means that the variables JJ, JJP, JJS, YS, and Z are no longer needed in the model. UR and JHMIN are now the only two capacity like variables in the model. JJP had been created by peak to peak interpolations of JJ. This change also eliminates equations 95-98. In addition, the excess capital variable is no longer used in equation 12, and this means that variables EXKK and MUH are no longer needed in the model. MUH had been created by peak to peak interpolations of Y/KK. This change eliminates equation 93. All these variables and equations have been retained in the software, but they play no role in the solution of the model.

See Model Versions and References for more discussion of the model versions.

Assumptions Behind the Forecast

To put in perspective the current assumptions that have been made about fiscal policy, it may be helpful to review an analysis of three economic plans that I did on September 4, 1996: An Analysis of the Clinton and Dole Economic Plans. The three plans were the latest (at the time) Congressional plan, the Clinton plan, and the Dole plan. The budget agreement that was eventually worked out by the Democrats and Republicans was closest to the original Clinton plan, although the spending cuts were not as large as the originally planned cuts. The following table gives for the key government policy variables in the model 1) the growth rates used for the current forecast, 2) the growth rates I used in analyzing the original Clinton plan, and 3) the actual growth rates between 1993:3 and 1999:4.

                 Growth Rates (annual rates)

            Current
           Forecast         Clinton          Actual     
          Assumptions         Plan       1999:4-1993.3  

TRGH          5.0/8.0         4.3             4.1       
COG           2.0            -4.8             1.6       
JG           -1.0            -4.8            -1.5       
TRGS          5.8/8.0         5.8             5.7       
TRSH          6.0             6.0             5.6       
COS           3.0             1.0             6.0       
JS            1.0             1.0             1.6       

Notes: 5.0/8.0 means 5.0% through 2000.4 and 8.0% thereafter.
       5.8/8.0 means 5.8% through 2000.4 and 8.0% thereafter. 

Comparing the Clinton plan to the actual outcome so far, the plan was close for transfer payments (TRGH), but way off for purchases of goods (COG) and federal civilian jobs (JG). The current forecast assumptions about the growth of COG and JG in the future are close to the historical values.

It is assumed for the current forecast that all tax rates remain unchanged.

No assumption about monetary policy is needed for the forecast because monetary policy is endogenous. Monetary policy is determined by equation 30, an estimated interest rate reaction function or rule.

The Results

The current forecasts for real growth (at an annual rate) for the four quarters of 2000 are 3.2, 3.2, 2.8, and 2.3. The economy is thus not forecast to keep up the torrid pace it has followed in the last two quarters. The unemployment rate falls to 3.7 percent by the third quarter of 2000. Inflation as measured by the growth of the GDP deflator (GDPD) rises substantially. It is 3.2 percent in 2000. The Fed is predicted (through the interest rate rule) to increase the bill rate (RS) to 6.1 percent by the fourth quarter of 2000, primarily in response to the increased inflation. The household saving rate (variable SRZ in the model) is forecast to fall to 0.6 by the fourth quarter of 2000 (from 2.0 percent in the fourth quarter of 1999). The federal government budget surplus (SGP) is forecast to be between \$130.7 and \$167.0 billion throughout the forecast period. The U.S. current account deficit (variable -SR in the model) is forecast to be large throughout the period (about \$400 billion).

This forecast is thus for there to be a soft landing. Inflation increases, but the Fed cuts it off without too much harm. The main uncertainty regarding this forecast is the stock market. There is a stock price equation in the model (equation 25, explaining CG), but it cannot pick up booms and crashes. The equation is predicting that stock prices will grow modestly in the future. If, on the other hand, inflation increases, the Fed tightens, and the stock market crashes, the effect on the economy through the wealth effect could be substantial. If you want to see this, you can run an experiment in which you crash the stock market (see Chapter 7 of The US Model Workbook for how to do this). You will see that a large sustained crash leads to a recession even if you assume that the Fed substantially lowers the interest rate in response to the crash. In other words, the model has the property that the Fed does not have the power to prevent a recession if there is a large crash.

You can examine the tables of this forecast memo for the details, or you can print out the forecast values from the base data set for the model. Although the model is used to forecast through 2004:4, you should not put much confidence on the results beyond about 2001. Forecast error bands are fairly large for predictions this far ahead.

Possible Experiments to Run

The present forecast is a good base from which to make alternative fiscal-policy assumptions, depending on what you think Congress might do in light of the rosy government budget picture. For example, there is currently considerable uncertainty about possible future tax cuts, and you can experiment with alternative tax-cut plans. Remember that the current forecast assumes that there are no tax cuts.

As a historical footnote, the model has consistently been more optimistic about the size of future federal government deficits than have most others, especially regarding future tax revenues, and the recent data suggest that the model has been right. The CBO and others have now moved in the optimistic direction. You may want to compare the current CBO forecasts with those from the model. My sense is that the model has conveyed useful information in the past about the deficit that was not in the CBO forecasts at the time.

You may also want to drop the interest rate reaction function (equation 30) and put in your own assumptions about Fed behavior. For example, do you think the Fed will raise interest rates more than the model predicts it will in response to what is happening in the economy?

As noted above, the model is predicting a fairly large increase in the rate of inflation (for the GDP deflator, from about 1.5 percent in the last four quarters to 3.2 percent in the next four), and you may want to experiment with the price equation (equation 10). The price equation may be overpredicting the price level, although note that the unemployment rate enters the equation only linearly and so there is no nonlinear response going on here. At some point one would expect to see large (i.e., nonlinear) price increases in response to a falling unemployment rate. Unfortunately, there are not enough observations at low unemployment rates for the data to estimate this point precisely. So it could be that inflation will be even worse in the future than the model is predicting if the economy is close to the point where the price response is nonlinear.

Related to the inflation question, the current forecast is based on the assumption that the price of imports (PIM) grows at a rate of 1 percent per year throughout the forecast period. A strong dollar helps keep PIM down, but oil price increases push it up. It may be that the assumption of 1 percent is too optimistic, and you may want to experiment with higher values. This will, of course, make inflation even worse in the future.

Finally, as discussed above, you may want to crash the stock market.

US Forecast Tables: January 29, 2000
Table F1: Forecasts of Selected Variables--Real GDP and Components
Table F1 (continued)--Prices and Wages
Table F1 (continued)--Money and Interest Rates
Table F1 (continued)--Employment and Labor Force
Table F1 (continued)--Other Endogenous
Table F1 (continued)--Selected Exogenous
Table F2: Forecasts of the Federal Government Budget
Table F3: Forecasts of the State and Local Government Budget
Table F4: Forecasts of Savings Flows
NIPA Table 1.1
NIPA Table 1.2
NIPA Table 3.2
NIPA Table 3.3
NIPA Table 7.1
Table F1: Forecasts of Selected Variables
Table F1
US Model Forecasts of Selected Variables
Real GDP and Components
Billions of 1996 Dollars

Quar. GDPR %Ch CS %Ch CN %Ch CD %Ch
19961 7671.4 2.9 3014.8 3.7 1553.9 2.4 601.7 4.1 19962 7800.5 6.9 3037.2 3.0 1569.9 4.2 620.4 13.0 19963 7843.3 2.2 3058.8 2.9 1578.6 2.2 618.1 -1.5 19964 7937.5 4.9 3077.2 2.4 1593.9 3.9 625.7 5.0 19971 8033.4 4.9 3110.1 4.3 1609.0 3.8 642.1 10.9 19972 8134.8 5.1 3137.0 3.5 1608.2 -0.2 639.7 -1.5 19973 8214.8 4.0 3172.0 4.5 1630.7 5.7 669.7 20.1 19974 8277.3 3.1 3207.8 4.6 1631.8 0.3 678.0 5.1 19981 8412.7 6.7 3234.2 3.3 1654.9 5.8 704.9 16.8 19982 8457.2 2.1 3272.2 4.8 1681.9 6.7 723.9 11.2 19983 8536.0 3.8 3309.6 4.7 1692.0 2.4 731.2 4.1 19984 8659.2 5.9 3322.0 1.5 1712.6 5.0 766.0 20.4 19991 8737.9 3.7 3356.5 4.2 1749.5 8.9 788.8 12.4 19992 8778.6 1.9 3399.2 5.2 1763.7 3.3 806.1 9.1 19993 8900.6 5.7 3440.6 5.0 1779.3 3.6 821.2 7.7 19994 9026.9 5.8 3470.6 3.5 1805.9 6.1 844.5 11.8 20001 9097.5 3.2 3508.8 4.5 1827.5 4.9 858.2 6.6 20002 9168.8 3.2 3545.5 4.2 1844.7 3.8 868.6 4.9 20003 9233.2 2.8 3581.2 4.1 1859.0 3.1 876.5 3.7 20004 9286.2 2.3 3617.0 4.1 1871.3 2.7 881.8 2.5 20011 9337.3 2.2 3651.7 3.9 1881.8 2.3 885.0 1.5 20012 9385.8 2.1 3685.3 3.7 1891.0 2.0 886.6 0.7 20013 9431.9 2.0 3717.9 3.6 1899.2 1.8 887.1 0.2 20014 9478.4 2.0 3749.5 3.4 1906.9 1.6 886.7 -0.2 20021 9525.8 2.0 3780.4 3.3 1914.3 1.6 885.9 -0.3 20022 9574.4 2.1 3810.7 3.2 1921.7 1.5 885.2 -0.3 20023 9624.9 2.1 3840.5 3.2 1929.1 1.6 884.7 -0.2 20024 9677.3 2.2 3870.0 3.1 1936.8 1.6 884.6 0.0 20031 9731.6 2.3 3899.1 3.0 1944.6 1.6 885.0 0.2 20032 9787.7 2.3 3928.1 3.0 1952.7 1.7 886.1 0.5 20033 9845.4 2.4 3956.9 3.0 1961.1 1.7 887.9 0.8 20034 9904.4 2.4 3985.7 2.9 1969.7 1.8 890.3 1.1 20041 9964.3 2.4 4014.5 2.9 1978.6 1.8 893.3 1.4 20042 10025.2 2.5 4043.2 2.9 1987.6 1.8 896.9 1.6 20043 10086.7 2.5 4072.1 2.9 1996.9 1.9 901.1 1.9 20044 10148.8 2.5 4101.0 2.9 2006.4 1.9 905.7 2.1
Quar. IHH %Ch IKF %Ch IVF IM %Ch
19961 266.2 12.3 734.2 14.2 5.6 921.1 10.8 19962 279.0 20.7 756.9 12.9 30.3 950.4 13.3 19963 278.4 -0.9 784.3 15.3 51.2 982.9 14.4 19964 275.5 -4.1 804.5 10.7 32.9 998.1 6.3 19971 279.3 5.6 822.8 9.4 51.5 1034.7 15.5 19972 282.4 4.6 844.8 11.1 93.1 1080.8 19.0 19973 283.0 0.8 880.1 17.8 59.2 1125.5 17.6 19974 287.4 6.4 887.4 3.4 72.7 1139.9 5.2 19981 296.8 13.8 947.9 30.2 107.3 1179.0 14.4 19982 306.4 13.6 978.1 13.4 43.1 1215.6 13.0 19983 312.3 7.9 978.0 -0.1 76.1 1231.0 5.2 19984 319.8 9.9 1016.7 16.8 70.7 1263.1 10.8 19991 329.6 12.8 1037.4 8.4 50.1 1300.9 12.5 19992 333.9 5.4 1056.4 7.5 14.0 1345.4 14.4 19993 329.0 -5.7 1086.4 11.8 38.0 1393.0 14.9 19994 328.1 -1.2 1093.1 2.5 65.4 1428.6 10.6 20001 324.1 -4.8 1114.0 7.9 60.7 1458.7 8.7 20002 321.0 -3.7 1133.5 7.2 62.2 1484.6 7.3 20003 316.4 -5.7 1153.6 7.3 60.3 1506.9 6.1 20004 311.6 -5.9 1170.4 5.9 51.4 1525.7 5.1 20011 307.1 -5.7 1182.9 4.4 46.8 1541.9 4.3 20012 303.1 -5.1 1194.0 3.8 42.4 1555.7 3.6 20013 299.7 -4.4 1203.2 3.1 37.8 1567.6 3.1 20014 296.9 -3.6 1211.1 2.7 34.9 1578.0 2.7 20021 295.0 -2.5 1218.3 2.4 32.7 1587.2 2.4 20022 294.0 -1.4 1225.1 2.2 31.3 1595.7 2.2 20023 293.7 -0.4 1231.6 2.2 30.8 1603.7 2.0 20024 294.1 0.6 1238.2 2.2 30.9 1611.5 1.9 20031 295.2 1.5 1244.9 2.2 31.5 1619.1 1.9 20032 296.8 2.2 1251.8 2.2 32.3 1626.9 1.9 20033 298.8 2.7 1259.0 2.3 33.3 1634.8 2.0 20034 301.1 3.1 1266.3 2.4 34.4 1642.9 2.0 20041 303.6 3.4 1273.8 2.4 35.4 1651.3 2.1 20042 306.3 3.6 1281.4 2.4 36.4 1660.0 2.1 20043 309.1 3.7 1289.1 2.4 37.2 1668.9 2.2 20044 311.9 3.7 1296.8 2.4 37.9 1678.1 2.2
GDPR Real GDP CS Consumption - Services CN Consumption - Nondurables CD Consumption - Durables IHH Residential Investment IKF Nonresidential Investment IVF Inventory Investment IM Imports %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Prices and Wages - %Ch
                                                                         

Quar. GDPD PF WF WR
19961 2.5 2.2 4.5 2.2 19962 1.3 1.8 4.5 2.7 19963 1.7 1.5 3.3 1.7 19964 1.4 0.9 2.3 1.3 19971 2.4 3.8 2.2 -1.6 19972 1.5 1.8 3.2 1.3 19973 1.2 1.6 5.9 4.2 19974 1.2 1.3 5.5 4.1 19981 0.9 1.5 4.0 2.4 19982 1.3 1.1 6.9 5.7 19983 1.5 1.1 7.4 6.3 19984 1.0 -0.6 6.5 7.2 19991 2.0 2.7 4.8 2.1 19992 1.4 1.7 4.9 3.1 19993 1.1 0.9 3.3 2.4 19994 2.0 1.8 5.6 3.7 20001 3.2 3.2 4.1 0.9 20002 3.2 3.2 4.2 0.9 20003 3.2 3.2 4.2 1.0 20004 3.1 3.1 4.1 1.0 20011 3.0 3.0 4.1 1.1 20012 2.9 2.9 4.0 1.1 20013 2.8 2.7 3.9 1.2 20014 2.7 2.6 3.9 1.2 20021 2.6 2.5 3.8 1.3 20022 2.5 2.4 3.7 1.3 20023 2.4 2.3 3.7 1.3 20024 2.3 2.2 3.6 1.4 20031 2.3 2.2 3.6 1.4 20032 2.2 2.1 3.6 1.4 20033 2.2 2.1 3.6 1.4 20034 2.2 2.0 3.5 1.5 20041 2.1 2.0 3.5 1.5 20042 2.1 2.0 3.5 1.5 20043 2.1 2.0 3.5 1.5 20044 2.1 2.0 3.5 1.5
GDPD GDP Price Index PF Firm Sector Price Index WF Nominal Wage Rate WR Real Wage Rate %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Money and Interest Rates
                                                                         

Quar. RS RB RM M1 %Ch UBR
19961 4.9 7.0 7.6 1192.8 -2.6 68.1 19962 5.0 7.6 8.5 1196.8 1.4 69.3 19963 5.1 7.6 8.6 1214.8 6.2 68.8 19964 5.0 7.2 8.1 1205.0 -3.2 69.6 19971 5.1 7.4 8.2 1221.8 5.7 65.5 19972 5.1 7.6 8.2 1235.2 4.5 70.3 19973 5.1 7.2 7.7 1231.2 -1.3 71.6 19974 5.1 6.9 7.4 1249.7 6.1 73.8 19981 5.1 6.7 7.1 1262.9 4.3 73.4 19982 5.0 6.6 7.2 1272.6 3.1 72.0 19983 4.8 6.5 7.0 1285.2 4.0 75.4 19984 4.3 6.3 6.9 1311.4 8.4 68.4 19991 4.4 6.4 7.1 1319.2 2.4 73.3 19992 4.5 6.9 7.2 1321.3 0.6 74.1 19993 4.7 7.3 8.1 1337.9 5.1 74.0 19994 5.0 7.5 8.1 1374.8 11.5 76.1 20001 5.4 7.6 8.2 1394.9 6.0 76.3 20002 5.7 7.7 8.4 1414.6 5.8 76.8 20003 5.9 7.7 8.5 1433.9 5.6 77.4 20004 6.1 7.8 8.6 1452.9 5.4 78.1 20011 6.2 7.9 8.7 1471.5 5.2 78.9 20012 6.2 7.9 8.8 1489.8 5.1 79.6 20013 6.2 8.0 8.9 1507.8 4.9 80.2 20014 6.2 8.0 8.9 1525.5 4.8 80.9 20021 6.2 8.0 9.0 1542.9 4.6 81.6 20022 6.1 8.0 9.0 1560.0 4.5 82.2 20023 6.1 8.1 9.0 1577.0 4.4 82.8 20024 6.0 8.1 9.0 1593.8 4.3 83.4 20031 5.9 8.0 9.0 1610.4 4.2 84.0 20032 5.9 8.0 8.9 1627.0 4.2 84.5 20033 5.8 8.0 8.9 1643.4 4.1 85.0 20034 5.7 8.0 8.9 1659.9 4.1 85.6 20041 5.7 7.9 8.8 1676.3 4.0 86.1 20042 5.6 7.9 8.8 1692.7 4.0 86.6 20043 5.5 7.9 8.7 1709.1 3.9 87.0 20044 5.4 7.8 8.7 1725.6 3.9 87.5
RS Bill Rate RB Bond Rate RM Mortgage Rate M1 Money Supply UBR Unborrowed Reserves %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Employment and Labor Force
                                                                         

Quar. 100UR L1 L2 L3 JF E U %Ch %Ch %Ch %Ch %Ch mill.
19961 5.6 2.2 0.9 -0.6 2.1 1.0 7.4 19962 5.5 2.0 2.4 1.0 2.1 2.2 7.3 19963 5.3 1.9 3.1 0.9 2.6 3.0 7.1 19964 5.3 1.0 2.6 2.8 2.7 1.8 7.2 19971 5.3 1.8 0.7 4.0 3.4 2.3 7.1 19972 5.0 0.8 1.5 1.5 2.0 2.4 6.8 19973 4.8 1.4 3.0 -0.8 1.3 1.9 6.6 19974 4.7 -0.3 -1.9 5.8 2.9 1.6 6.4 19981 4.7 0.6 1.0 2.4 2.6 1.2 6.4 19982 4.4 0.1 -0.8 1.2 2.5 1.1 6.1 19983 4.5 0.2 1.4 2.2 1.8 0.8 6.2 19984 4.4 1.0 0.7 3.8 1.7 2.0 6.1 19991 4.3 1.2 2.4 2.3 1.3 2.4 6.0 19992 4.3 -0.9 -0.2 2.2 2.1 0.4 5.9 19993 4.2 0.2 0.0 2.4 2.1 1.0 5.9 19994 4.1 1.0 1.5 1.9 2.0 1.9 5.7 20001 4.0 1.0 2.3 2.6 2.9 2.4 5.6 20002 3.8 1.0 2.2 2.6 3.1 2.5 5.4 20003 3.7 1.0 2.2 2.6 2.9 2.3 5.2 20004 3.7 1.0 2.2 2.6 2.6 2.0 5.2 20011 3.7 1.0 2.2 2.5 2.2 1.8 5.3 20012 3.7 1.0 2.2 2.5 2.0 1.6 5.4 20013 3.8 1.0 2.2 2.4 1.7 1.4 5.5 20014 3.9 1.0 2.2 2.4 1.6 1.4 5.7 20021 4.0 1.0 2.2 2.3 1.4 1.3 5.9 20022 4.2 1.0 2.2 2.3 1.3 1.3 6.1 20023 4.3 1.0 2.2 2.2 1.3 1.3 6.3 20024 4.4 1.0 2.2 2.2 1.3 1.3 6.4 20031 4.4 1.0 2.2 2.2 1.2 1.4 6.6 20032 4.5 1.0 2.2 2.1 1.2 1.4 6.7 20033 4.6 1.0 2.2 2.1 1.3 1.4 6.9 20034 4.7 1.0 2.2 2.1 1.3 1.4 7.0 20041 4.7 1.0 2.2 2.0 1.3 1.4 7.1 20042 4.8 1.0 2.2 2.0 1.3 1.4 7.2 20043 4.8 1.0 2.2 2.0 1.3 1.5 7.4 20044 4.9 1.0 2.2 2.0 1.3 1.5 7.5
UR Unemployment Rate L1 Labor Force, Men 25-54 L2 Labor Force, Women 25-54 L3 Labor Force, All Others 16+ JF Jobs, Firm Sector E Total Employment U Total Unemployment %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Other Endogenous Variables
                                                                         

Quar. CG PIEF PIEF 100SRZ PROD SR SGP SSP %Ch %Ch
19961 2137.1 544.5 14.2 5.3 3.0 90.7 -176.4 16.9 19962 1580.3 556.2 8.9 4.7 4.5 106.8 -137.0 27.2 19963 1081.8 558.7 1.8 5.2 0.4 134.3 -130.1 22.2 19964 3028.0 585.1 20.3 4.8 2.4 111.0 -103.9 19.4 19971 643.5 586.8 1.2 4.6 -0.1 117.3 -87.3 25.7 19972 6455.6 604.5 12.6 5.1 2.6 103.8 -63.1 23.7 19973 3769.5 635.8 22.4 4.3 2.6 126.7 -27.8 30.8 19974 1623.7 619.5 -9.9 4.5 0.5 147.0 -16.7 29.7 19981 6808.3 594.1 -15.4 4.2 3.9 152.1 24.8 32.0 19982 598.3 599.6 3.8 3.7 0.5 191.2 43.7 30.9 19983 -6041.1 590.5 -5.9 3.7 3.5 232.7 59.6 50.0 19984 8958.9 578.0 -8.2 3.7 3.8 230.0 59.8 54.1 19991 2008.6 613.0 26.5 3.1 1.9 255.8 97.6 48.6 19992 4144.9 637.3 16.8 2.6 0.6 303.7 118.2 37.7 19993 -2985.0 650.2 8.3 2.2 4.0 336.4 133.7 48.8 19994 6400.0 688.2 25.5 2.0 4.1 370.1 107.1 62.9 20001 407.7 696.4 4.9 1.3 0.6 386.1 130.7 69.1 20002 427.1 693.9 -1.4 1.1 0.5 398.1 143.3 75.3 20003 426.6 688.1 -3.3 0.9 0.3 406.7 154.6 80.1 20004 425.8 678.3 -5.6 0.6 0.2 412.0 164.3 83.4 20011 429.2 671.6 -3.9 0.5 0.4 415.0 166.4 86.8 20012 435.8 666.4 -3.1 0.5 0.6 415.9 167.0 89.3 20013 444.5 662.2 -2.5 0.4 0.7 415.2 167.0 91.0 20014 452.6 660.2 -1.2 0.4 0.9 413.3 166.7 92.3 20021 460.4 659.5 -0.4 0.4 1.0 410.4 165.3 93.5 20022 468.1 660.4 0.5 0.4 1.1 407.0 163.2 94.5 20023 475.3 662.9 1.6 0.4 1.2 403.1 161.1 95.6 20024 481.8 667.0 2.5 0.5 1.3 399.2 158.8 96.9 20031 487.7 672.2 3.2 0.5 1.4 395.1 156.3 98.3 20032 492.9 678.5 3.8 0.6 1.4 391.2 153.8 99.9 20033 497.7 685.3 4.1 0.7 1.4 387.4 151.7 101.6 20034 502.1 692.4 4.2 0.7 1.5 383.7 150.3 103.6 20041 506.2 699.8 4.3 0.8 1.5 380.2 149.6 105.6 20042 510.0 707.3 4.4 0.8 1.5 376.9 148.8 107.8 20043 513.5 715.0 4.4 0.9 1.5 373.8 148.0 110.1 20044 516.8 723.2 4.6 0.9 1.5 370.8 147.5 112.5
CG Capital Gains PIEF Profits SRZ Saving Rate PROD Productivity SR Savings-Foreign Sector SGP Federal Budget Deficit(-), NIPA SSP S&L Budget Deficit(-), NIPA %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F1 (continued)
Table F1 (continued)
Selected Exogenous Variables
                                                                         

Quar. COG COS EX TRGH TRGH PIM %Ch %Ch %Ch %Ch %Ch
19961 21.3 2.9 2.3 670.0 11.2 -1.6 19962 14.3 7.7 6.9 676.1 3.7 -1.7 19963 -14.3 3.6 3.4 680.2 2.4 -4.4 19964 2.2 11.9 29.1 685.9 3.4 0.6 19971 -5.4 10.6 8.8 702.6 10.1 -4.5 19972 24.7 5.8 16.2 705.6 1.7 -7.3 19973 -2.1 7.9 11.4 708.3 1.5 -2.5 19974 -4.8 4.9 1.8 709.8 0.8 -2.5 19981 -20.8 8.9 -1.5 716.8 4.0 -10.8 19982 28.1 5.0 -4.0 718.0 0.7 -4.1 19983 -5.8 7.1 -1.7 721.9 2.2 -4.6 19984 8.6 2.5 16.1 723.5 0.9 -0.3 19991 0.0 20.1 -5.5 736.6 7.4 -3.0 19992 6.3 -1.9 4.0 740.5 2.1 5.2 19993 9.1 7.8 11.5 746.4 3.2 6.2 19994 35.6 8.5 6.8 752.8 3.5 4.3 20001 2.0 3.0 3.0 762.0 5.0 1.0 20002 2.0 3.0 3.0 771.4 5.0 1.0 20003 2.0 3.0 3.0 780.9 5.0 1.0 20004 2.0 3.0 3.0 790.4 5.0 1.0 20011 2.0 3.0 3.0 805.8 8.0 1.0 20012 2.0 3.0 3.0 821.4 8.0 1.0 20013 2.0 3.0 3.0 837.4 8.0 1.0 20014 2.0 3.0 3.0 853.7 8.0 1.0 20021 2.0 3.0 3.0 870.3 8.0 1.0 20022 2.0 3.0 3.0 887.2 8.0 1.0 20023 2.0 3.0 3.0 904.4 8.0 1.0 20024 2.0 3.0 3.0 922.0 8.0 1.0 20031 2.0 3.0 3.0 939.9 8.0 1.0 20032 2.0 3.0 3.0 958.1 8.0 1.0 20033 2.0 3.0 3.0 976.8 8.0 1.0 20034 2.0 3.0 3.0 995.7 8.0 1.0 20041 2.0 3.0 3.0 1015.1 8.0 1.0 20042 2.0 3.0 3.0 1034.8 8.0 1.0 20043 2.0 3.0 3.0 1054.9 8.0 1.0 20044 2.0 3.0 3.0 1075.4 8.0 1.0
COG Real Federal Purchases of Goods COS Real S&L Purchases of Goods EX Exports TRGH Nominal Federal Transfer Payments PIM Import Price Index %Ch Percentage change, annual rate
Table F2: Forecasts of the Federal Government Budget
Table F2
US Model Forecasts of the Federal Government Budget
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Quar. RECG TFG TCG IBTG SIG
19961 1447.0 637.5 187.3 90.4 531.8 19962 1495.6 674.4 192.0 89.0 540.2 19963 1503.4 675.6 190.9 89.7 547.2 19964 1550.4 692.6 192.3 111.3 554.2 19971 1573.8 723.0 196.2 89.4 565.2 19972 1609.1 740.1 199.9 96.7 572.4 19973 1648.1 759.0 211.5 97.2 580.4 19974 1677.8 781.5 209.3 96.2 590.8 19981 1704.8 803.3 206.2 95.8 599.5 19982 1734.5 824.0 207.2 96.4 606.9 19983 1770.3 847.3 209.9 97.7 615.4 19984 1793.4 868.1 202.6 99.6 623.1 19991 1826.5 877.9 212.6 99.5 636.5 19992 1853.1 892.1 218.1 100.0 642.9 19993 1883.1 908.0 222.4 101.5 651.2 19994 1913.4 922.3 230.9 102.7 657.5 20001 1942.8 937.4 232.7 104.6 668.1 20002 1974.6 957.1 232.2 106.4 678.9 20003 2004.7 976.2 230.9 108.2 689.5 20004 2031.7 993.8 228.7 109.8 699.4 20011 2057.7 1010.4 227.2 111.4 708.8 20012 2082.9 1026.3 226.0 112.8 717.7 20013 2106.8 1041.1 225.1 114.3 726.3 20014 2130.4 1055.4 224.6 115.6 734.7 20021 2153.9 1069.6 224.5 116.9 742.9 20022 2177.7 1083.7 224.7 118.2 751.0 20023 2201.8 1097.9 225.2 119.5 759.2 20024 2226.4 1112.0 226.2 120.8 767.5 20031 2251.6 1126.4 227.3 122.1 775.8 20032 2277.4 1141.0 228.7 123.4 784.3 20033 2303.6 1155.9 230.2 124.7 792.9 20034 2330.2 1170.8 231.8 126.0 801.6 20041 2357.2 1185.9 233.5 127.3 810.5 20042 2384.6 1201.2 235.2 128.7 819.6 20043 2412.4 1216.7 236.9 130.0 828.7 20044 2440.5 1232.4 238.7 131.4 838.0
Quar. EXPG PUG-IGZ TRGH TRGR TRGS INTG SUBG SGP
19961 1623.4 441.8 670.0 16.8 185.5 273.9 35.4 -176.4 19962 1632.6 447.0 676.1 8.6 194.0 271.5 35.4 -137.0 19963 1633.5 442.9 680.2 9.0 193.0 273.7 34.7 -130.1 19964 1654.3 449.4 685.9 19.9 189.2 275.1 34.8 -103.9 19971 1661.1 452.7 702.6 6.7 192.8 273.6 32.7 -87.3 19972 1672.2 461.6 705.6 7.1 192.2 275.2 30.5 -63.1 19973 1675.9 458.1 708.3 7.4 195.9 277.1 29.1 -27.8 19974 1694.5 455.6 709.8 18.8 201.7 279.4 29.2 -16.7 19981 1680.0 445.1 716.8 7.6 202.1 279.8 28.6 24.8 19982 1690.8 457.4 718.0 6.2 200.8 280.0 28.4 43.7 19983 1710.7 451.4 721.9 9.1 220.2 279.6 28.5 59.6 19984 1733.6 460.0 723.5 18.7 214.2 274.3 42.9 59.8 19991 1728.9 467.0 736.6 6.8 219.9 266.0 32.6 97.6 19992 1734.9 465.2 740.5 9.2 215.7 264.8 39.5 118.2 19993 1749.4 475.0 746.4 8.5 230.6 259.9 29.0 133.7 19994 1806.3 492.7 752.8 17.6 230.7 261.2 51.3 107.1 20001 1812.1 497.5 762.0 17.6 234.0 265.0 36.0 130.7 20002 1831.3 502.4 771.4 17.6 237.3 266.6 36.0 143.3 20003 1850.1 507.3 780.9 17.6 240.7 267.6 36.0 154.6 20004 1867.4 512.3 790.4 17.6 244.1 267.0 36.0 164.3 20011 1891.3 517.1 805.8 17.6 248.8 266.0 36.0 166.4 20012 1915.8 521.9 821.4 17.6 253.7 265.2 36.0 167.0 20013 1939.8 526.6 837.4 17.6 258.6 263.6 36.0 167.0 20014 1963.7 531.2 853.7 17.6 263.6 261.6 36.0 166.7 20021 1988.6 535.7 870.3 17.6 268.7 260.3 36.0 165.3 20022 2014.4 540.2 887.2 17.6 273.9 259.6 36.0 163.2 20023 2040.7 544.5 904.4 17.6 279.3 258.9 36.0 161.1 20024 2067.7 548.9 922.0 17.6 284.7 258.5 36.0 158.8 20031 2095.3 553.2 939.9 17.6 290.2 258.4 36.0 156.3 20032 2123.6 557.4 958.1 17.6 295.9 258.5 36.0 153.8 20033 2151.9 561.7 976.8 17.6 301.6 258.3 36.0 151.7 20034 2179.9 566.0 995.7 17.6 307.5 257.2 36.0 150.3 20041 2207.6 570.3 1015.1 17.6 313.4 255.2 36.0 149.6 20042 2235.8 574.5 1034.8 17.6 319.5 253.3 36.0 148.8 20043 2264.3 578.9 1054.9 17.6 325.7 251.2 36.0 148.0 20044 2293.1 583.2 1075.4 17.6 332.1 248.8 36.0 147.5
RECG Total Receipts TPG Personal Tax TCG Corporate Tax IBTG Indirect Business Tax SIG Social Insurance Contributions EXPG Total Current Expenditures PUG-IGZ Consumption Expenditures TRGH Transfer Payments to Persons TRGR Transfer Payments to Rest of the World TRGS Grants in Aid to S&L Governments INTG Net Interest Paid SUBG Subsidies less Current Surplus SGP NIPA Surplus(+) or Deficit(-)
Table F3: Forecasts of the State and Local Government Budget
Table F3
US Model Forecasts of the S&L Government Budget
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Quar. RECS TFS TCS IBTS SIS TRGS
19961 940.4 193.2 32.4 516.4 12.9 185.5 19962 962.2 198.1 33.3 524.2 12.6 194.0 19963 966.1 201.7 33.1 526.0 12.3 193.0 19964 972.9 205.5 33.3 533.0 11.9 189.2 19971 991.2 211.2 32.7 543.1 11.4 192.8 19972 997.3 214.3 33.3 546.4 11.1 192.2 19973 1016.4 219.6 35.3 554.8 10.8 195.9 19974 1031.0 224.5 34.8 559.3 10.7 201.7 19981 1042.1 227.8 33.7 567.7 10.8 202.1 19982 1053.2 234.0 33.9 573.8 10.7 200.8 19983 1085.3 241.0 34.4 579.0 10.7 220.2 19984 1101.1 244.9 33.1 598.2 10.7 214.2 19991 1110.0 246.9 35.4 597.1 10.7 219.9 19992 1117.1 247.3 36.4 606.8 10.9 215.7 19993 1148.0 252.4 37.0 616.8 11.2 230.6 19994 1179.3 260.9 38.4 637.8 11.5 230.7 20001 1199.5 265.2 38.7 649.8 11.7 234.0 20002 1219.8 270.9 38.6 661.0 12.0 237.3 20003 1239.3 276.3 38.4 671.7 12.2 240.7 20004 1257.9 281.4 38.0 681.9 12.5 244.1 20011 1277.0 286.1 37.8 691.6 12.7 248.8 20012 1295.7 290.6 37.6 700.8 13.0 253.7 20013 1313.7 294.9 37.4 709.6 13.2 258.6 20014 1331.4 299.0 37.4 718.0 13.5 263.6 20021 1349.0 303.0 37.3 726.2 13.7 268.7 20022 1366.6 307.1 37.4 734.2 14.0 273.9 20023 1384.3 311.1 37.5 742.2 14.2 279.3 20024 1402.1 315.2 37.6 750.1 14.5 284.7 20031 1420.1 319.3 37.8 758.1 14.8 290.2 20032 1438.5 323.5 38.0 766.1 15.0 295.9 20033 1457.1 327.7 38.3 774.1 15.3 301.6 20034 1475.9 332.0 38.6 782.3 15.6 307.5 20041 1495.1 336.3 38.8 790.6 15.9 313.4 20042 1514.5 340.7 39.1 799.0 16.1 319.5 20043 1534.3 345.1 39.4 807.6 16.4 325.7 20044 1554.3 349.6 39.7 816.2 16.7 332.1
Quar. EXPS PUS-ISZ TRSH INTS DRS SUBS SSP
19961 923.5 712.5 222.6 0.8 0.3 -12.1 16.9 19962 935.0 723.0 223.9 1.0 0.3 -12.6 27.2 19963 943.9 730.6 225.3 1.0 0.3 -12.7 22.2 19964 953.5 740.0 225.6 0.8 0.4 -12.5 19.4 19971 965.5 751.0 226.5 0.2 0.3 -11.9 25.7 19972 973.6 759.1 227.3 -0.5 0.4 -11.9 23.7 19973 985.6 770.5 228.5 -0.8 0.3 -12.3 30.8 19974 1001.3 782.8 229.5 -1.3 0.4 -9.3 29.7 19981 1010.1 791.5 231.4 -1.8 0.4 -10.6 32.0 19982 1022.3 802.7 233.4 -2.2 0.3 -11.3 30.9 19983 1035.3 813.8 235.7 -2.2 0.4 -11.6 50.0 19984 1047.0 822.2 238.5 -1.8 0.3 -11.6 54.1 19991 1061.4 832.4 241.9 -1.0 0.3 -11.6 48.6 19992 1079.4 848.4 243.6 -0.7 0.3 -11.6 37.7 19993 1099.2 866.5 245.3 -0.6 0.3 -11.7 48.8 19994 1116.4 881.8 247.5 -0.6 0.4 -11.9 62.9 20001 1130.4 893.6 249.7 -0.6 0.4 -11.9 69.1 20002 1144.5 905.7 251.8 -0.6 0.4 -11.9 75.3 20003 1159.2 917.9 254.2 -0.6 0.4 -11.9 80.1 20004 1174.5 930.2 257.2 -0.6 0.4 -11.9 83.4 20011 1190.3 942.5 260.7 -0.6 0.4 -11.9 86.8 20012 1206.4 954.7 264.5 -0.6 0.4 -11.9 89.3 20013 1222.7 966.8 268.7 -0.6 0.4 -11.9 91.0 20014 1239.1 978.9 273.1 -0.6 0.4 -11.9 92.3 20021 1255.6 990.8 277.6 -0.6 0.4 -11.9 93.5 20022 1272.1 1002.7 282.3 -0.6 0.4 -11.9 94.5 20023 1288.7 1014.6 287.0 -0.6 0.4 -11.9 95.6 20024 1305.2 1026.4 291.7 -0.6 0.4 -11.9 96.9 20031 1321.9 1038.3 296.5 -0.6 0.4 -11.9 98.3 20032 1338.6 1050.2 301.3 -0.6 0.4 -11.9 99.9 20033 1355.4 1062.2 306.2 -0.6 0.4 -11.9 101.6 20034 1372.4 1074.2 311.1 -0.6 0.4 -11.9 103.6 20041 1389.5 1086.4 316.0 -0.6 0.4 -11.9 105.6 20042 1406.7 1098.6 321.0 -0.6 0.4 -11.9 107.8 20043 1424.2 1111.0 326.0 -0.6 0.4 -11.9 110.1 20044 1441.8 1123.5 331.2 -0.6 0.4 -11.9 112.5
RECS Total Receipts TPS Personal Tax TCS Corporate Tax IBTS Indirect Business Tax SIS Social Insurance Contributions TRGS Grants in Aid from Federal Government EXPS Total Current Expenditures PUS-ISZ Consumption Expenditures TRSH Transfer Payments to Persons INTS Net Interest Paid DRS Dividends Received SUBS Subsidies less Current Surplus SSP NIPA Surplus(+) or Deficit(-)
Table F4 Forecasts of Savings Flows
Table F4
US Model Forecasts of Savings Flows
Savings by Sector
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Quar. SH SF SB SR SG SS
19961 248.9 44.3 3.1 90.7 -270.4 -116.6 19962 177.7 23.6 4.5 106.8 -189.2 -123.4 19963 168.3 -36.8 -0.4 134.3 -170.6 -94.9 19964 178.0 -13.6 -8.1 111.0 -146.6 -120.8 19971 158.0 -47.7 8.0 117.3 -116.6 -119.0 19972 215.1 -85.2 11.9 103.8 -96.5 -149.1 19973 182.2 -107.5 15.4 126.7 -72.4 -144.3 19974 160.8 -152.4 18.6 147.0 -57.3 -116.7 19981 123.7 -166.4 14.6 152.1 -1.3 -122.6 19982 85.3 -177.5 14.6 191.2 0.4 -114.0 19983 78.2 -249.5 16.0 232.7 14.5 -91.9 19984 77.7 -244.3 14.3 230.0 10.1 -87.8 19991 20.6 -263.1 35.2 255.8 58.8 -107.2 19992 -6.0 -276.6 24.8 303.7 69.3 -115.3 19993 -20.0 -317.5 33.7 336.4 86.4 -119.0 19994 -28.0 -317.8 33.1 370.1 52.7 -110.2 20001 -68.3 -322.9 35.3 386.1 75.0 -105.2 20002 -82.9 -338.9 37.5 398.1 86.4 -100.3 20003 -92.1 -354.1 39.8 406.7 96.4 -96.7 20004 -102.7 -361.5 42.1 412.0 104.8 -94.7 20011 -105.5 -366.8 44.3 415.0 105.6 -92.6 20012 -106.5 -369.5 46.5 415.9 104.9 -91.4 20013 -106.9 -369.5 48.7 415.2 103.5 -91.0 20014 -106.6 -368.3 50.8 413.3 101.8 -91.0 20021 -104.7 -366.4 52.9 410.4 99.1 -91.2 20022 -102.2 -363.8 55.0 407.0 95.6 -91.5 20023 -99.4 -360.9 57.0 403.1 92.0 -91.8 20024 -96.6 -357.9 59.0 399.2 88.2 -92.0 20031 -93.7 -354.8 61.1 395.1 84.4 -92.0 20032 -91.0 -351.8 63.1 391.2 80.4 -91.9 20033 -88.6 -349.1 65.1 387.4 76.8 -91.5 20034 -87.0 -346.7 67.2 383.7 73.9 -91.1 20041 -86.0 -344.5 69.2 380.2 71.6 -90.6 20042 -85.1 -342.5 71.3 376.9 69.3 -89.9 20043 -84.5 -340.5 73.4 373.8 67.0 -89.1 20044 -84.6 -338.3 75.5 370.8 64.8 -88.3 SH Saving, Households SF Saving, Firms SB Saving, Financial SR Saving, Foreign SG Saving, Federal SS Saving, State and Local
NIPA Table 1.1
NIPA Table 1.1
US Model Forecasts Gross Domestic Product
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Table 1.1 Quar. 1 2 3 4 5
19961 7629.6 5130.4 606.4 1539.6 2984.4 19962 7782.7 5218.1 621.3 1569.4 3027.4 19963 7859.2 5263.7 616.7 1578.8 3068.2 19964 7981.3 5337.8 621.5 1608.4 3107.9 19971 8125.9 5430.8 636.1 1630.5 3164.2 19972 8259.5 5466.3 627.8 1627.1 3211.4 19973 8364.7 5569.2 651.9 1652.3 3265.0 19974 8453.0 5631.4 655.8 1657.1 3318.5 19981 8610.6 5714.7 679.2 1674.6 3360.9 19982 8683.7 5816.2 693.9 1701.2 3421.1 19983 8798.0 5889.6 696.9 1716.6 3476.1 19984 8947.5 5973.7 722.8 1742.9 3508.0 19991 9072.7 6090.8 739.0 1787.8 3564.0 19992 9146.2 6200.7 751.6 1824.8 3624.3 19993 9297.9 6303.7 761.8 1853.9 3688.0 19994 9477.0 6424.5 780.1 1897.7 3746.7 20001 9626.4 6545.6 798.2 1933.5 3813.9 20002 9778.7 6658.6 813.4 1965.1 3880.1 20003 9924.6 6766.0 826.4 1993.8 3945.8 20004 10058.6 6869.1 836.9 2020.4 4011.8 20011 10189.9 6966.6 845.4 2044.8 4076.4 20012 10317.0 7059.1 852.2 2067.5 4139.5 20013 10439.9 7147.4 857.6 2088.9 4200.9 20014 10561.4 7232.4 862.2 2109.3 4260.9 20021 10682.2 7314.9 866.2 2129.1 4319.6 20022 10802.9 7395.9 870.0 2148.6 4377.2 20023 10924.7 7476.0 874.0 2168.0 4434.0 20024 11047.7 7555.8 878.2 2187.4 4490.2 20031 11172.3 7635.8 882.9 2206.9 4546.0 20032 11298.7 7716.4 888.2 2226.7 4601.5 20033 11426.9 7797.9 894.2 2246.7 4657.0 20034 11556.8 7880.3 900.7 2267.0 4712.6 20041 11688.2 7963.8 907.9 2287.6 4768.3 20042 11821.1 8048.5 915.7 2308.5 4824.3 20043 11955.5 8134.4 924.1 2329.7 4880.6 20044 12091.2 8221.6 933.0 2351.3 4937.3
Quar. 6 7 8 11 12
19961 1172.4 1165.6 865.1 300.5 6.8 19962 1231.5 1201.7 885.4 316.3 29.8 19963 1282.6 1232.6 913.6 319.0 50.0 19964 1284.4 1250.9 933.7 317.2 33.5 19971 1327.0 1274.1 952.7 321.4 52.9 19972 1392.1 1299.5 972.7 326.8 92.6 19973 1396.0 1338.4 1007.7 330.7 57.6 19974 1419.6 1349.4 1011.4 338.0 70.2 19981 1514.3 1415.4 1065.9 349.5 98.9 19982 1495.0 1454.2 1090.8 363.4 40.8 19983 1535.4 1461.7 1087.2 374.5 73.7 19984 1580.3 1508.9 1121.4 387.5 71.4 19991 1594.3 1543.3 1139.9 403.4 51.0 19992 1585.4 1567.8 1155.4 412.4 17.6 19993 1635.1 1594.3 1181.6 412.7 40.8 19994 1671.7 1604.1 1189.1 415.0 67.6 20001 1695.4 1632.2 1218.4 413.9 63.1 20002 1725.5 1660.4 1246.6 413.8 65.2 20003 1751.2 1687.6 1275.8 411.9 63.6 20004 1766.0 1711.4 1301.7 409.7 54.6 20011 1781.3 1731.2 1323.5 407.7 50.1 20012 1795.5 1749.9 1343.8 406.2 45.6 20013 1808.1 1767.2 1362.1 405.2 40.9 20014 1821.7 1783.7 1378.9 404.9 37.9 20021 1836.1 1800.3 1394.8 405.4 35.8 20022 1851.5 1817.1 1410.2 406.9 34.4 20023 1868.5 1834.4 1425.2 409.3 34.1 20024 1886.9 1852.5 1440.1 412.4 34.4 20031 1906.6 1871.5 1455.2 416.3 35.1 20032 1927.5 1891.2 1470.4 420.8 36.2 20033 1949.3 1911.7 1485.9 425.9 37.5 20034 1971.8 1932.9 1501.6 431.3 38.9 20041 1994.8 1954.5 1517.6 437.0 40.3 20042 2018.1 1976.6 1533.7 442.9 41.6 20043 2041.6 1998.9 1550.0 449.0 42.7 20044 2065.3 2021.5 1566.4 455.2 43.7
Quar. 13 14 17 20 21 24
19961 -75.8 853.3 929.1 1402.6 530.6 872.0 19962 -89.8 864.7 954.5 1422.9 537.2 885.7 19963 -110.5 865.6 976.1 1423.4 529.1 894.3 19964 -79.7 913.1 992.8 1438.8 529.4 909.4 19971 -87.7 929.6 1017.3 1455.8 530.2 925.6 19972 -77.5 965.3 1042.8 1478.6 543.0 935.6 19973 -90.6 988.6 1079.2 1490.1 540.9 949.2 19974 -97.4 988.6 1086.0 1499.4 537.1 962.3 19981 -117.4 974.3 1091.7 1499.0 526.1 972.9 19982 -153.9 960.1 1114.0 1526.4 542.2 984.2 19983 -165.7 949.1 1114.8 1538.7 539.7 999.0 19984 -161.3 981.8 1143.1 1554.8 546.7 1008.1 19991 -201.6 966.9 1168.5 1589.2 557.4 1031.8 19992 -245.8 978.2 1224.0 1605.9 561.6 1044.3 19993 -278.1 1008.5 1286.6 1637.2 569.8 1067.4 19994 -301.8 1031.5 1333.3 1682.6 594.6 1088.0 20001 -317.5 1047.3 1364.8 1703.0 600.7 1102.3 20002 -329.2 1063.3 1392.5 1723.8 606.8 1117.0 20003 -337.4 1079.5 1416.9 1744.8 613.0 1131.8 20004 -342.5 1095.7 1438.2 1766.0 619.3 1146.7 20011 -345.1 1111.9 1457.0 1787.1 625.4 1161.7 20012 -345.7 1128.1 1473.8 1808.1 631.6 1176.6 20013 -344.7 1144.1 1488.8 1829.0 637.6 1191.4 20014 -342.4 1159.9 1502.3 1849.8 643.6 1206.2 20021 -339.2 1175.7 1514.9 1870.4 649.5 1220.9 20022 -335.4 1191.4 1526.8 1890.9 655.3 1235.7 20023 -331.2 1207.0 1538.3 1911.4 661.1 1250.4 20024 -326.9 1222.6 1549.5 1931.9 666.8 1265.1 20031 -322.5 1238.3 1560.8 1952.5 672.6 1279.9 20032 -318.2 1254.0 1572.2 1973.1 678.3 1294.8 20033 -314.0 1269.7 1583.8 1993.8 684.1 1309.8 20034 -310.0 1285.6 1595.6 2014.7 689.8 1324.9 20041 -306.1 1301.6 1607.7 2035.7 695.6 1340.1 20042 -302.4 1317.7 1620.2 2056.9 701.5 1355.5 20043 -298.9 1334.0 1632.9 2078.3 707.3 1371.0 20044 -295.6 1350.4 1646.0 2100.0 713.2 1386.7
Line 1 Gross Domestic Product Line 2 Personal Consumption Expenditures Line 3 Durable Goods Line 4 Nondurable Goods Line 5 Services Line 6 Gross Private Domestic Investment Line 7 Fixed Investment Line 8 Nonresidential Line 11 Residential Line 12 Change in Business Inventories Line 13 Net Exports of Goods and Services Line 14 Exports Line 17 Imports Line 20 Government Consumption Expenditures and Gross Investment Line 21 Federal Line 22 State and Local
NIPA Table 1.2
NIPA Table 1.2
US Model Forecasts Gross Domestic Product
Billions of 1996 Dollars
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Table 1.2 Quar. 1 2 3 4 5
19961 7671.4 5170.4 601.7 1553.9 3014.8 19962 7800.5 5227.5 620.4 1569.9 3037.2 19963 7843.3 5255.5 618.1 1578.6 3058.8 19964 7937.5 5296.8 625.7 1593.9 3077.2 19971 8033.4 5361.2 642.1 1609.0 3110.1 19972 8134.8 5384.9 639.7 1608.2 3137.0 19973 8214.8 5472.4 669.7 1630.7 3172.0 19974 8277.3 5517.6 678.0 1631.8 3207.8 19981 8412.7 5594.0 704.9 1654.9 3234.2 19982 8457.2 5678.0 723.9 1681.9 3272.2 19983 8536.0 5732.8 731.2 1692.0 3309.6 19984 8659.2 5800.6 766.0 1712.6 3322.0 19991 8737.9 5894.8 788.8 1749.5 3356.5 19992 8778.6 5969.0 806.1 1763.7 3399.2 19993 8900.6 6041.1 821.2 1779.3 3440.6 19994 9026.9 6121.0 844.5 1805.9 3470.6 20001 9097.5 6194.5 858.2 1827.5 3508.8 20002 9168.8 6258.8 868.6 1844.7 3545.5 20003 9233.2 6316.7 876.5 1859.0 3581.2 20004 9286.2 6370.2 881.8 1871.3 3617.0 20011 9337.3 6418.6 885.0 1881.8 3651.7 20012 9385.8 6462.9 886.6 1891.0 3685.3 20013 9431.9 6504.1 887.1 1899.2 3717.9 20014 9478.4 6543.1 886.7 1906.9 3749.5 20021 9525.8 6580.7 885.9 1914.3 3780.4 20022 9574.4 6617.6 885.2 1921.7 3810.7 20023 9624.9 6654.3 884.7 1929.1 3840.5 20024 9677.3 6691.3 884.6 1936.8 3870.0 20031 9731.6 6728.7 885.0 1944.6 3899.1 20032 9787.7 6766.9 886.1 1952.7 3928.1 20033 9845.4 6805.9 887.9 1961.1 3956.9 20034 9904.4 6845.7 890.3 1969.7 3985.7 20041 9964.3 6886.4 893.3 1978.6 4014.5 20042 10025.2 6927.8 896.9 1987.6 4043.2 20043 10086.7 6970.1 901.1 1996.9 4072.1 20044 10148.8 7013.1 905.7 2006.4 4101.0
Quar. 6 7 8 11 12
19961 1170.8 1165.2 861.6 303.6 5.6 19962 1234.0 1203.7 885.6 318.1 30.3 19963 1282.8 1231.6 914.3 317.3 51.2 19964 1283.1 1250.2 936.2 314.0 32.9 19971 1325.7 1274.2 957.9 316.3 51.5 19972 1393.9 1300.8 980.8 320.0 93.1 19973 1397.7 1338.5 1018.0 320.5 59.2 19974 1424.5 1351.8 1026.1 325.7 72.7 19981 1532.4 1425.1 1088.6 336.5 107.3 19982 1510.7 1467.6 1120.2 347.4 43.1 19983 1550.6 1474.5 1120.3 354.2 76.1 19984 1594.1 1523.4 1160.8 362.6 70.7 19991 1606.5 1556.4 1182.7 373.7 50.1 19992 1595.7 1581.7 1202.9 378.8 14.0 19993 1647.4 1609.4 1234.3 375.1 38.0 19994 1681.3 1615.9 1241.9 374.0 65.4 20001 1694.9 1634.3 1263.8 370.5 60.7 20002 1714.3 1652.2 1284.3 367.9 62.2 20003 1729.4 1669.2 1305.5 363.7 60.3 20004 1734.0 1682.6 1323.2 359.4 51.4 20011 1738.9 1692.1 1336.8 355.3 46.8 20012 1743.0 1700.7 1348.9 351.8 42.4 20013 1745.8 1708.0 1359.1 348.9 37.8 20014 1749.6 1714.7 1368.1 346.6 34.9 20021 1754.3 1721.6 1376.4 345.2 32.7 20022 1760.1 1728.8 1384.2 344.7 31.3 20023 1767.5 1736.7 1391.8 344.9 30.8 20024 1776.2 1745.3 1399.4 345.8 30.9 20031 1786.1 1754.6 1407.2 347.4 31.5 20032 1797.0 1764.7 1415.2 349.5 32.3 20033 1808.8 1775.5 1423.5 352.0 33.3 20034 1821.2 1786.8 1431.9 354.9 34.4 20041 1833.9 1798.4 1440.5 357.9 35.4 20042 1846.8 1810.4 1449.3 361.1 36.4 20043 1859.7 1822.5 1458.1 364.4 37.2 20044 1872.7 1834.8 1466.9 367.8 37.9
Quar. 13 14 17 20
19961 -75.5 845.6 921.1 1404.4 19962 -90.6 859.8 950.4 1430.2 19963 -115.8 867.1 982.9 1422.1 19964 -73.9 924.2 998.1 1431.1 19971 -90.8 943.9 1034.7 1437.0 19972 -100.9 979.9 1080.8 1457.1 19973 -118.7 1006.8 1125.5 1463.2 19974 -128.7 1011.2 1139.9 1462.9 19981 -171.7 1007.3 1179.0 1459.0 19982 -218.4 997.2 1215.6 1480.6 19983 -238.0 993.0 1231.0 1485.1 19984 -232.3 1030.8 1263.1 1495.6 19991 -284.5 1016.4 1300.9 1514.3 19992 -319.0 1026.4 1345.4 1519.3 19993 -338.2 1054.8 1393.0 1536.3 19994 -356.2 1072.4 1428.6 1567.6 20001 -378.3 1080.4 1458.7 1573.1 20002 -396.3 1088.4 1484.6 1578.7 20003 -410.5 1096.4 1506.9 1584.3 20004 -421.2 1104.6 1525.7 1590.0 20011 -429.1 1112.8 1541.9 1595.7 20012 -434.7 1121.0 1555.7 1601.4 20013 -438.3 1129.3 1567.6 1607.1 20014 -440.3 1137.7 1578.0 1612.9 20021 -441.1 1146.1 1587.2 1618.7 20022 -441.1 1154.6 1595.7 1624.5 20023 -440.5 1163.2 1603.7 1630.4 20024 -439.6 1171.8 1611.5 1636.3 20031 -438.6 1180.5 1619.1 1642.2 20032 -437.6 1189.3 1626.9 1648.2 20033 -436.7 1198.1 1634.8 1654.2 20034 -436.0 1207.0 1642.9 1660.2 20041 -435.4 1215.9 1651.3 1666.3 20042 -435.0 1225.0 1660.0 1672.4 20043 -434.8 1234.1 1668.9 1678.5 20044 -434.9 1243.2 1678.1 1684.7
Line 1 Gross Domestic Product Line 2 Personal Consumption Expenditures Line 3 Durable Goods Line 4 Nondurable Goods Line 5 Services Line 6 Gross Private Domestic Investment Line 7 Fixed Investment Line 8 Nonresidential Line 11 Residential Line 12 Change in Business Inventories Line 13 Net Exports of Goods and Services Line 14 Exports Line 17 Imports Line 20 Government Consumption Expenditures and Gross Investment
NIPA Table 3.2
NIPA Table 3.2
US Model Forecasts Fed. Gov. Receipts and Expenditures
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Table 3.2 Quar. 1 2 6 9 13
19961 1447.0 637.5 187.3 90.4 531.8 19962 1495.6 674.4 192.0 89.0 540.2 19963 1503.4 675.6 190.9 89.7 547.2 19964 1550.4 692.6 192.3 111.3 554.2 19971 1573.8 723.0 196.2 89.4 565.2 19972 1609.1 740.1 199.9 96.7 572.4 19973 1648.1 759.0 211.5 97.2 580.4 19974 1677.8 781.5 209.3 96.2 590.8 19981 1704.8 803.3 206.2 95.8 599.5 19982 1734.5 824.0 207.2 96.4 606.9 19983 1770.3 847.3 209.9 97.7 615.4 19984 1793.4 868.1 202.6 99.6 623.1 19991 1826.5 877.9 212.6 99.5 636.5 19992 1853.1 892.1 218.1 100.0 642.9 19993 1883.1 908.0 222.4 101.5 651.2 19994 1913.4 922.3 230.9 102.7 657.5 20001 1942.8 937.4 232.7 104.6 668.1 20002 1974.6 957.1 232.2 106.4 678.9 20003 2004.7 976.2 230.9 108.2 689.5 20004 2031.7 993.8 228.7 109.8 699.4 20011 2057.7 1010.4 227.2 111.4 708.8 20012 2082.9 1026.3 226.0 112.8 717.7 20013 2106.8 1041.1 225.1 114.3 726.3 20014 2130.4 1055.4 224.6 115.6 734.7 20021 2153.9 1069.6 224.5 116.9 742.9 20022 2177.7 1083.7 224.7 118.2 751.0 20023 2201.8 1097.9 225.2 119.5 759.2 20024 2226.4 1112.0 226.2 120.8 767.5 20031 2251.6 1126.4 227.3 122.1 775.8 20032 2277.4 1141.0 228.7 123.4 784.3 20033 2303.6 1155.9 230.2 124.7 792.9 20034 2330.2 1170.8 231.8 126.0 801.6 20041 2357.2 1185.9 233.5 127.3 810.5 20042 2384.6 1201.2 235.2 128.7 819.6 20043 2412.4 1216.7 236.9 130.0 828.7 20044 2440.5 1232.4 238.7 131.4 838.0
Quar . 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 25 29
19961 1623.4 441.8 686.8 670.0 16.8 185.5 273.9 35.4 -176.4 19962 1632.6 447.0 684.7 676.1 8.6 194.0 271.5 35.4 -137.0 19963 1633.5 442.9 689.2 680.2 9.0 193.0 273.7 34.7 -130.1 19964 1654.3 449.4 705.8 685.9 19.9 189.2 275.1 34.8 -103.9 19971 1661.1 452.7 709.3 702.6 6.7 192.8 273.6 32.7 -87.3 19972 1672.2 461.6 712.7 705.6 7.1 192.2 275.2 30.5 -63.1 19973 1675.9 458.1 715.7 708.3 7.4 195.9 277.1 29.1 -27.8 19974 1694.5 455.6 728.6 709.8 18.8 201.7 279.4 29.2 -16.7 19981 1680.0 445.1 724.4 716.8 7.6 202.1 279.8 28.6 24.8 19982 1690.8 457.4 724.2 718.0 6.2 200.8 280.0 28.4 43.7 19983 1710.7 451.4 731.0 721.9 9.1 220.2 279.6 28.5 59.6 19984 1733.6 460.0 742.2 723.5 18.7 214.2 274.3 42.9 59.8 19991 1728.9 467.0 743.4 736.6 6.8 219.9 266.0 32.6 97.6 19992 1734.9 465.2 749.7 740.5 9.2 215.7 264.8 39.5 118.2 19993 1749.4 475.0 754.9 746.4 8.5 230.6 259.9 29.0 133.7 19994 1806.3 492.7 770.4 752.8 17.6 230.7 261.2 51.3 107.1 20001 1812.1 497.5 779.6 762.0 17.6 234.0 265.0 36.0 130.7 20002 1831.3 502.4 789.0 771.4 17.6 237.3 266.6 36.0 143.3 20003 1850.1 507.3 798.5 780.9 17.6 240.7 267.6 36.0 154.6 20004 1867.4 512.3 808.0 790.4 17.6 244.1 267.0 36.0 164.3 20011 1891.3 517.1 823.4 805.8 17.6 248.8 266.0 36.0 166.4 20012 1915.8 521.9 839.0 821.4 17.6 253.7 265.2 36.0 167.0 20013 1939.8 526.6 855.0 837.4 17.6 258.6 263.6 36.0 167.0 20014 1963.7 531.2 871.3 853.7 17.6 263.6 261.6 36.0 166.7 20021 1988.6 535.7 887.9 870.3 17.6 268.7 260.3 36.0 165.3 20022 2014.4 540.2 904.8 887.2 17.6 273.9 259.6 36.0 163.2 20023 2040.7 544.5 922.0 904.4 17.6 279.3 258.9 36.0 161.1 20024 2067.7 548.9 939.6 922.0 17.6 284.7 258.5 36.0 158.8 20031 2095.3 553.2 957.5 939.9 17.6 290.2 258.4 36.0 156.3 20032 2123.6 557.4 975.7 958.1 17.6 295.9 258.5 36.0 153.8 20033 2151.9 561.7 994.4 976.8 17.6 301.6 258.3 36.0 151.7 20034 2179.9 566.0 1013.3 995.7 17.6 307.5 257.2 36.0 150.3 20041 2207.6 570.3 1032.7 1015.1 17.6 313.4 255.2 36.0 149.6 20042 2235.8 574.5 1052.4 1034.8 17.6 319.5 253.3 36.0 148.8 20043 2264.3 578.9 1072.5 1054.9 17.6 325.7 251.2 36.0 148.0 20044 2293.1 583.2 1093.0 1075.4 17.6 332.1 248.8 36.0 147.5
Line 1 Receipts Line 2 Personal Tax and Nontax Receipts Line 6 Corporate Profit Tax Accruals Line 9 Indirect Business Tax and Nontax Accruals Line 13 Contributions for Social Insurance Line 14 Current Expenditures Line 15 Consumption Expenditures Line 16 Transfer Payments (net) Line 17 To Persons Line 18 To Rest of the World (net) Line 19 Grants-in-Aid to State and Local Governments Line 20 Net Interest Paid Line 25 Subsidies less Current Surplus of Government Enterprises Line 29 NIPA Surplus(+) or Deficit(-)
NIPA Table 3.3
NIPA Table 3.3
US Model Forecasts S&L Gov. Receipts and Expenditures
Billions of Dollars
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Table 3.3 Quar. 1 2 6 7 11 12
19961 940.4 193.2 32.4 516.4 12.9 185.5 19962 962.2 198.1 33.3 524.2 12.6 194.0 19963 966.1 201.7 33.1 526.0 12.3 193.0 19964 972.9 205.5 33.3 533.0 11.9 189.2 19971 991.2 211.2 32.7 543.1 11.4 192.8 19972 997.3 214.3 33.3 546.4 11.1 192.2 19973 1016.4 219.6 35.3 554.8 10.8 195.9 19974 1031.0 224.5 34.8 559.3 10.7 201.7 19981 1042.1 227.8 33.7 567.7 10.8 202.1 19982 1053.2 234.0 33.9 573.8 10.7 200.8 19983 1085.3 241.0 34.4 579.0 10.7 220.2 19984 1101.1 244.9 33.1 598.2 10.7 214.2 19991 1110.0 246.9 35.4 597.1 10.7 219.9 19992 1117.1 247.3 36.4 606.8 10.9 215.7 19993 1148.0 252.4 37.0 616.8 11.2 230.6 19994 1179.3 260.9 38.4 637.8 11.5 230.7 20001 1199.5 265.2 38.7 649.8 11.7 234.0 20002 1219.8 270.9 38.6 661.0 12.0 237.3 20003 1239.3 276.3 38.4 671.7 12.2 240.7 20004 1257.9 281.4 38.0 681.9 12.5 244.1 20011 1277.0 286.1 37.8 691.6 12.7 248.8 20012 1295.7 290.6 37.6 700.8 13.0 253.7 20013 1313.7 294.9 37.4 709.6 13.2 258.6 20014 1331.4 299.0 37.4 718.0 13.5 263.6 20021 1349.0 303.0 37.3 726.2 13.7 268.7 20022 1366.6 307.1 37.4 734.2 14.0 273.9 20023 1384.3 311.1 37.5 742.2 14.2 279.3 20024 1402.1 315.2 37.6 750.1 14.5 284.7 20031 1420.1 319.3 37.8 758.1 14.8 290.2 20032 1438.5 323.5 38.0 766.1 15.0 295.9 20033 1457.1 327.7 38.3 774.1 15.3 301.6 20034 1475.9 332.0 38.6 782.3 15.6 307.5 20041 1495.1 336.3 38.8 790.6 15.9 313.4 20042 1514.5 340.7 39.1 799.0 16.1 319.5 20043 1534.3 345.1 39.4 807.6 16.4 325.7 20044 1554.3 349.6 39.7 816.2 16.7 332.1
Quar. 13 14 15 16 19 20 23 24
19961 923.5 712.5 222.6 0.8 0.3 -12.1 0.0 16.9 19962 935.0 723.0 223.9 1.0 0.3 -12.6 0.0 27.2 19963 943.9 730.6 225.3 1.0 0.3 -12.7 0.0 22.2 19964 953.5 740.0 225.6 0.8 0.4 -12.5 0.0 19.4 19971 965.5 751.0 226.5 0.2 0.3 -11.9 0.0 25.7 19972 973.6 759.1 227.3 -0.5 0.4 -11.9 0.0 23.7 19973 985.6 770.5 228.5 -0.8 0.3 -12.3 0.0 30.8 19974 1001.3 782.8 229.5 -1.3 0.4 -9.3 0.0 29.7 19981 1010.1 791.5 231.4 -1.8 0.4 -10.6 0.0 32.0 19982 1022.3 802.7 233.4 -2.2 0.3 -11.3 0.0 30.9 19983 1035.3 813.8 235.7 -2.2 0.4 -11.6 0.0 50.0 19984 1047.0 822.2 238.5 -1.8 0.3 -11.6 0.0 54.1 19991 1061.4 832.4 241.9 -1.0 0.3 -11.6 0.0 48.6 19992 1079.4 848.4 243.6 -0.7 0.3 -11.6 0.0 37.7 19993 1099.2 866.5 245.3 -0.6 0.3 -11.7 0.0 48.8 19994 1116.4 881.8 247.5 -0.6 0.4 -11.9 0.0 62.9 20001 1130.4 893.6 249.7 -0.6 0.4 -11.9 0.0 69.1 20002 1144.5 905.7 251.8 -0.6 0.4 -11.9 0.0 75.3 20003 1159.2 917.9 254.2 -0.6 0.4 -11.9 0.0 80.1 20004 1174.5 930.2 257.2 -0.6 0.4 -11.9 0.0 83.4 20011 1190.3 942.5 260.7 -0.6 0.4 -11.9 0.0 86.8 20012 1206.4 954.7 264.5 -0.6 0.4 -11.9 0.0 89.3 20013 1222.7 966.8 268.7 -0.6 0.4 -11.9 0.0 91.0 20014 1239.1 978.9 273.1 -0.6 0.4 -11.9 0.0 92.3 20021 1255.6 990.8 277.6 -0.6 0.4 -11.9 0.0 93.5 20022 1272.1 1002.7 282.3 -0.6 0.4 -11.9 0.0 94.5 20023 1288.7 1014.6 287.0 -0.6 0.4 -11.9 0.0 95.6 20024 1305.2 1026.4 291.7 -0.6 0.4 -11.9 0.0 96.9 20031 1321.9 1038.3 296.5 -0.6 0.4 -11.9 0.0 98.3 20032 1338.6 1050.2 301.3 -0.6 0.4 -11.9 0.0 99.9 20033 1355.4 1062.2 306.2 -0.6 0.4 -11.9 0.0 101.6 20034 1372.4 1074.2 311.1 -0.6 0.4 -11.9 0.0 103.6 20041 1389.5 1086.4 316.0 -0.6 0.4 -11.9 0.0 105.6 20042 1406.7 1098.6 321.0 -0.6 0.4 -11.9 0.0 107.8 20043 1424.2 1111.0 326.0 -0.6 0.4 -11.9 0.0 110.1 20044 1441.8 1123.5 331.2 -0.6 0.4 -11.9 0.0 112.5
Line 1 Receipts Line 2 Personal Tax and Nontax Receipts Line 6 Corporate Profit Tax Accruals Line 7 Indirect Business Tax and Nontax Accruals Line 11 Contributions for Social Insurance Line 12 Federal Grants-in-Aid Line 13 Current Expenditures Line 14 Consumption Expenditures Line 15 Transfer Payments to Persons Line 16 Net Interest Paid Line 19 Less: Dividends Received by Government Line 20 Subsidies less Current Surplus of Government Enterprises Line 23 Less: Wage Accruals Less Disbursements Line 24 NIPA Surplus(+) or Deficit(-)
NIPA Table 7.1
NIPA Table 7.1
US Model Forecasts of Price Indexes for GDP
Index numbers, 1996=100
                                                                         

Line Numbers in Table 7.1 Quar. 4 8 12 16 20
19961 99.5 99.2 100.8 99.1 99.0 19962 99.8 99.8 100.1 100.0 99.7 19963 100.2 100.2 99.8 100.0 100.3 19964 100.6 100.8 99.3 100.9 101.0 19971 101.2 101.3 99.1 101.3 101.7 19972 101.5 101.5 98.1 101.2 102.4 19973 101.8 101.8 97.3 101.3 102.9 19974 102.1 102.1 96.7 101.6 103.5 19981 102.4 102.2 96.4 101.2 103.9 19982 102.7 102.4 95.9 101.1 104.6 19983 103.1 102.7 95.3 101.5 105.0 19984 103.3 103.0 94.4 101.8 105.6 19991 103.8 103.3 93.7 102.2 106.2 19992 104.2 103.9 93.2 103.5 106.6 19993 104.5 104.3 92.8 104.2 107.2 19994 105.0 105.0 92.4 105.1 108.0 20001 105.8 105.7 93.0 105.8 108.7 20002 106.7 106.4 93.6 106.5 109.4 20003 107.5 107.1 94.3 107.3 110.2 20004 108.3 107.8 94.9 108.0 110.9 20011 109.1 108.5 95.5 108.7 111.6 20012 109.9 109.2 96.1 109.3 112.3 20013 110.7 109.9 96.7 110.0 113.0 20014 111.4 110.5 97.2 110.6 113.6 20021 112.1 111.2 97.8 111.2 114.3 20022 112.8 111.8 98.3 111.8 114.9 20023 113.5 112.3 98.8 112.4 115.5 20024 114.2 112.9 99.3 112.9 116.0 20031 114.8 113.5 99.8 113.5 116.6 20032 115.4 114.0 100.2 114.0 117.1 20033 116.1 114.6 100.7 114.6 117.7 20034 116.7 115.1 101.2 115.1 118.2 20041 117.3 115.6 101.6 115.6 118.8 20042 117.9 116.2 102.1 116.1 119.3 20043 118.5 116.7 102.6 116.7 119.9 20044 119.1 117.2 103.0 117.2 120.4
Quar. 28 32 44 48 60 72
19961 100.0 100.4 99.0 100.9 100.9 99.9 19962 99.8 100.0 99.4 100.6 100.4 99.5 19963 100.1 99.9 100.5 99.8 99.3 100.1 19964 100.1 99.7 101.0 98.8 99.5 100.5 19971 100.0 99.5 101.6 98.5 98.3 101.3 19972 99.9 99.2 102.1 98.5 96.5 101.5 19973 100.0 99.0 103.2 98.2 95.9 101.8 19974 99.8 98.6 103.8 97.8 95.3 102.5 19981 99.3 97.9 103.9 96.7 92.6 102.7 19982 99.1 97.4 104.6 96.3 91.6 103.1 19983 99.1 97.0 105.7 95.6 90.6 103.6 19984 99.0 96.6 106.9 95.2 90.5 104.0 19991 99.2 96.4 107.9 95.1 89.8 104.9 19992 99.1 96.1 108.9 95.3 91.0 105.7 19993 99.1 95.7 110.0 95.6 92.4 106.6 19994 99.3 95.7 111.0 96.2 93.3 107.3 20001 99.9 96.4 111.7 96.9 93.6 108.3 20002 100.5 97.1 112.5 97.7 93.8 109.2 20003 101.1 97.7 113.3 98.5 94.0 110.1 20004 101.7 98.4 114.0 99.2 94.3 111.1 20011 102.3 99.0 114.7 99.9 94.5 112.0 20012 102.9 99.6 115.5 100.6 94.7 112.9 20013 103.5 100.2 116.1 101.3 95.0 113.8 20014 104.0 100.8 116.8 102.0 95.2 114.7 20021 104.6 101.3 117.4 102.6 95.4 115.6 20022 105.1 101.9 118.1 103.2 95.7 116.4 20023 105.6 102.4 118.7 103.8 95.9 117.2 20024 106.1 102.9 119.3 104.3 96.2 118.1 20031 106.7 103.4 119.8 104.9 96.4 118.9 20032 107.2 103.9 120.4 105.4 96.6 119.7 20033 107.7 104.4 121.0 106.0 96.9 120.5 20034 108.2 104.9 121.5 106.5 97.1 121.4 20041 108.7 105.3 122.1 107.0 97.4 122.2 20042 109.2 105.8 122.6 107.6 97.6 123.0 20043 109.7 106.3 123.2 108.1 97.8 123.8 20044 110.2 106.8 123.7 108.6 98.1 124.6
Line 4 Gross Domestic Product Line 8 Personal Consumption Expenditures Line 12 Durable Goods Line 16 Nondurable Goods Line 20 Services Line 28 Fixed Investment Line 32 Nonresidential Line 44 Residential Line 48 Exports of Goods and Services Line 60 Imports of Goods and Services Line 72 Government Consumption Expenditures and Gross Investment