Amby Burfoot: Manchester Road Race Times

Amby Burfoot has run the Manchester Road Race, 4.748 miles, 61 times in a row! The table below shows his actual times and his predicted minimum times using the 2018 age factors on this site. The age factors are based on world-record data from age 40 up. The assumption that is used in estimating these age factors is that decline has begun at least by age 40. The methodology does not require that decline begins exactly at age 40; it could begin sooner. It looks like Amby's decline began at about age 33. The minimum times in the table use only Amby's results from age 40 up.

The best age corrected time for Amby from age 40 up is his time at age 63. This age and time determine his ``age line,'' from which minimum times can be computed for any other age. His six best age corrected times (all less than two minutes off the line) are ages 40, 58, 60, 61, 62, and 63. (Some of the actual times are way off the line, but these are undoubtedly races in which he did not run seriously.) These ages, 40 through 63, span 24 years, and so Amby had times close to his line for 24 years from age 40 on.

Amby has the following comments about his Manchester runs:

"Manchester was my first road race, in the fall of my senior year in high school. Four years later, I won it for the first time in the same year as my Boston Marathon victory. Since then I have run Manchester while training 120 miles a week; on an emergency home visit while serving in the Peace Corps in El Salvador; with `walking pneumonia;' with severe achilles tendinitis; while carrying an umbrella to keep the rain off my wife; while focusing for three decades on my professional career at Runner's World magazine; while getting more serious about training/racing again in my 60s; and after meniscus knee surgery at age 64. I hope to run a few more, some no doubt slower than others. And then much slower. At this point, finish time seems less important than simply keeping the streak alive."

Age	Year	Actual	Predicted	Difference
17	1963	25:59
18	1964	24:50
19	1965	24:55
20	1966	23:27
21	1967	23:19
22	1968	22:34.4
23	1969	22:38.4
24	1970	23:24
25	1971	23:45
26	1972	22:21.9
27	1973	22:37
28	1974	22:32.4
29	1975	22:34.5
30	1976	22:34
31	1977	22:41
32	1978	22:44
33	1979	23:21
34	1980	23:27
35	1981	35:00
36	1982	22:57
37	1983	25:03
38	1984	25:04
39	1985	25:08
40	1986	26:03	24:20	1:43
41	1987	39:02	24:34
42	1988	29:09	24:49	4:20
43	1989	43:22	25:03
44	1990	39:35	25:18
45	1991	38:51	25:33
46	1992	30:43	25:48	4:55
47	1993	30:11	26:04	4:07
48	1994	29:10	26:19	2:51
49	1995	29:23	26:35	2:48
50	1996	29:37	26:51	2:46
51	1997	30:17	27:06	3:11
52	1998	40:26	27:23
53	1999	34:48	27:39
54	2000	36:24	27:55
55	2001	31:32	28:12	3:20
56	2002	32:31	28:28	4:03
57	2003	32:15	28:45	3:30
58	2004	31:00	29:02	1:58
59	2005	32:19	29:20	2:59
60	2006	30:47	29:37	1:10
61	2007	30:41	29:54	0:47
62	2008	30:50	30:12	0:38
63	2009	30:30	30:30	0:00
64	2010	34:38	30:48
65	2011	51:32	31:06
66	2012	57:51	31:25
67	2013	48:09	31:43
68	2014	37:45	32:02
69	2015	35:55	32:21	3:24
70	2016	37:12	32:40
71	2017	39:43	33:00
72	2018	40:34	33:19
73	2019	56:49	33:39
74	2020	45:13	33:59
75	2021	41:09	34:19
76	2022	40:14	34:39
77	2023	41:42	35:00