Macroeconometric Modeling: 2018. link
Macroeconomic Modeling: The Cowles Commission Approach, M.I.T. Press, 2024. link

Macro Research

The first link above, including the individual links in it, is a discussion of macroeconometric modeling. It includes a discussion of much of my macro research through 2018. Some of the discussion is word for word from previous papers with footnotes on where the discussion is from. In some cases I have simply linked to a past article or pages in a book with no added discussion, where the links are meant to be part of the document.

The results in many of my papers have been updated through 2018 in this document. An interesting evaluation of the results in previous papers is to see how robust they are to using more recent data.

The MC model used in this document for the results consists of what I call the US model and the ROW model. The version of the US model used for this work is dated January 28, 2018. It is updated each quarter, where the current version on the website is dated January 31, 2025. The ROW model, and therefore the entire MC model, has not been updated since the 2018 version used in this document. On the website this version is called the MCJ model. The updated results from the results in the previous papers use the MCJ model.

The second link above, the MIT Press book, is a less technical and less comprehensive discussion than the discussion in the first link. It discusses only the US model. The version of the US model used for this work is dated July 27, 2023. Some changes to the US model were made between January 28, 2018, and July 27, 2023, and these are listed in the following link:

Changes to the US Model Between January 28, 2018, and July 27, 2023 link

No specification changes have been made to the US model between the July 27, 2023, version and the current version on the website. The only changes are that real values are in 2017 dollars rather than 2012 dollars and the model is now estimated through 2024.4 rather than 2023.2. The MIT Press book thus pertains to the current version of the US model except for the updated data and the reestimation.

You will see that the discussion in the document and the book is as much about analyzing the economy as it is about discussing macroeconometric techniques. The end result of macroeconometric modeling is to use the techniques to understand how the economy works, and this has been an important part of my research.