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"An Evaluation of A Short-Run Forecasting Model," International Economic Review, 1974.

Paper: pdf file

This paper examines the ex ante and ex post predictive accuracy of my forecasting model--1971#5. Between July 21, 1970, and April 23, 1973, I released twelve sets of forecasts from the model, and these are the ex ante forecasts that are examined. This paper also serves as a brief review of the forecasting model. About the time this paper was written I was beginning work on my current model, and this was the last time I examined the forecasting model except for the comparison in in Chapter 8 and Appendix B in 1976#1.