"The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President," The Review of Economics and Statistics, 1978.Paper: pdf file
This is the first paper I wrote examining the effects of economic events on votes for president. Estimating the effects of economic events on voting behavior has become a popular topic, and I have followed up this paper with a number of updates and predictions. The complete list of papers is here: Papers on Voting. The current and past predictions are here: Vote Predictions.