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"The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President," The Review of Economics and Statistics, May 1978, 159-173.
pdf file.



This is the main paper I wrote examining the effects of economic events on votes for president. Estimating the effects of economic events on voting behavior has become a popular topic, and I have followed up this paper with a number of updates: 1982#1, 1988#5, 1990#3, 1996#1, 1998#2, 2002#4, 2006#3. The most complete updated discussion is in 1996#1. No specification changes were made in 1998#2 from the specification in 1996#1. A brief history of my work and earlier work in this field is in 1996#2, which is less technical than the other papers.