"The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President: 1984 Update," Political Behavior, 1988.Paper: pdf file
In previous work I have developed an equation explaining votes for president in the United States that seem to have remarkable explanatory power. In this paper the equation is updated through the 1984 election and then used to predict the 1988 election.
This is the second update I wrote examining the effects of economic events on votes for president. See 1978 for the original paper. The complete list of papers is here: Papers on Voting. The current and past predictions are here: Vote Predictions.