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"The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President: 1988 Update," November 1990, unpublished.

Paper: pdf file

This is the third update I wrote examining the effects of economic events on votes for president. See 1978 for the original paper. The complete list of papers is here: Papers on Voting. The current and past predictions are here: Vote Predictions.

I did not submit this paper for publication because the new estimated equation was very close to the previous one. At this point I was on a roll, and little did I know that the 1992 prediction would be so far off.