[position in research by date] [position in research by subject]

"The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President: 1988 Update," November 1990, unpublished.
pdf file.



This is my third update of 1978#2. The earlier updates are 1982#1, 1988#5. The later updates are 1996#1, 1998#2, 2002#4, 2006#3. See also 1996#2 for a less technical discussion.

I did not submit this paper for publication because the new estimated equation was very close to the previous one. At this point I was on a roll, and little did I know that the 1992 prediction would be so far off.