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"The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President: 1992 Update," Political Behavior, 1996.

Paper: pdf file

This article updates through the 1992 election the equation originally presented in Fair (1978) explaining votes for president. Conditional predictions of the 1996 election are also made.


This is the fourth update I wrote examining the effects of economic events on votes for president. See 1978 for the original paper. The complete list of papers is here: Papers on Voting. The current and past predictions are here: Vote Predictions.

This update was more extensive than any of the others because of the attempt to account for the large error made in predicting the 1992 election.