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"The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President: 1992 Update," Political Behavior, June 1996, 119-139.
pdf file.


This article updates through the 1992 election the equation originally presented in Fair (1978) explaining votes for president. Conditional predictions of the 1996 election are also made.

This is my fourth update of 1978#2. The earlier updates are 1982#1, 1988#5, 1990#3. The later updates are 1998#2, 2002#4, 2006#3. See also 1996#2 for a less technical discussion.

This update was more extensive than any of the others because of the attempt to account for the large error made in predicting the 1992 election.