[position in research by date]
[position in research by subject]
"Policy Effects in the Post Boom U.S. Economy,"
2005, Topics in Macroeconomics, Vol. 5: Iss. 1, Article 19.
The paper analyzes the question why the U.S. economy in the
2000:4--2004:3 period was sluggish in light of the large
expansionary fiscal and monetary policies that took place.
The answer does not appear to be that there were large
structural changes in the economy or systematic bad shocks.
This paper tests for such changes and shocks, and the results are
generally negative. Instead, the main culprits seem to be
large negative effects from declines in the stock market and exports.
Although not tested in this paper, some of
the decline in exports may be the result of the stock market decline,
in which case most of the explanation is simply the stock
market decline itself.
All the experiments in this paper can be dupicated on this site.
See Chapter 4 of The MCB Model
Workbook: October 29, 2004 (pdf)
for discussion of how to do the experiments.