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"Policy Effects in the Post Boom U.S. Economy," 2005, Topics in Macroeconomics, Vol. 5: Iss. 1, Article 19.
pdf file.


The paper analyzes the question why the U.S. economy in the 2000:4--2004:3 period was sluggish in light of the large expansionary fiscal and monetary policies that took place. The answer does not appear to be that there were large structural changes in the economy or systematic bad shocks. This paper tests for such changes and shocks, and the results are generally negative. Instead, the main culprits seem to be large negative effects from declines in the stock market and exports. Although not tested in this paper, some of the decline in exports may be the result of the stock market decline, in which case most of the explanation is simply the stock market decline itself.


All the experiments in this paper can be dupicated on this site. See Chapter 4 of The MCB Model Workbook: October 29, 2004 (pdf) for discussion of how to do the experiments.