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"The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President: 2004 Update," November 1, 2006, unpublished.

Paper: html file Comments
This is the seventh update I wrote examining the effects of economic events on votes for president. See 1978 for the original paper. The complete list of papers is here: Papers on Voting. The current and past predictions are here: Vote Predictions.

The specification of the vote equation has not been changed since the update of November 1994 following the 1992 election. The equation has simply been reestimated each four-year interval using the latest economic data and the results of the previous election.