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"The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President: 2004 Update," November 1, 2006, unpublished.
html file (24KB).



This is my seventh update of 1978#2. The earlier updates are 1982#1, 1988#5, 1990#3, 1996#1, 1998#2. 2002#4. See also 1996#2 for a less technical discussion.

The specification of the vote equation has not been changed since the update of November 1994 following the 1992 election. The equation has simply been reestimated each four-year interval using the latest economic data and the results of the previous election.