"Presidential and Congressional Vote-Share Equations," American Journal of Political Science, 2009.
Paper: pdf fileThree vote-share equations are estimated and analyzed in this paper, one for presidential elections, one for on-term House elections, and one for mid-term House elections. The sample period is 1916--2006. Considering the three equations together allows one to test whether the same economic variables affect each and to examine various serial correlation and coattail possibilities. The main conclusions are: (1) there is strong evidence that the economy affects all three vote shares and in remarkably similar ways, (2) there is no evidence of any presidential coattail effects on the on-term House elections, (3) there is positive serial correlation in the House vote, which likely reflects a positive incumbency effect for elected representatives, and (4) the presidential vote share has a negative effect on the next mid-term House vote share, which is likely explained by a balance argument.
The House results are much stronger that I expected they would be. I now have a three equation model that I can dynamically simulate!
The original paper I wrote on voting begavior is 1978#2. The complete list of papers on voting is here: Papers on Voting. The current and past predictions are here: Vote Predictions.