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"Presidential and Congressional Vote-Share Equations,
"American Journal of Political Science, January 2009,
pdf file (1,889KB),
prepublished pdf file (170KB).
Three vote-share equations are estimated and analyzed in this paper,
one for presidential elections, one for on-term House elections, and
one for mid-term House elections. The sample period is 1916--2006.
Considering the three equations together allows one to test whether the
same economic variables affect each and to examine various serial
correlation and coattail possibilities.
The main conclusions are: (1) there
is strong evidence that the
economy affects all three vote shares and in remarkably similar ways,
(2) there is no evidence of any presidential coattail effects on the on-term
House elections, (3) there is positive serial correlation in the House vote,
which likely reflects a positive incumbency effect for elected
representatives, and (4) the presidential vote share has a negative
effect on the next mid-term House vote share, which is likely explained
by a balance argument.
The House results are much stronger that I expected they would be.
I now have a three equation model that I can dynamically simulate!