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"Presidential and Congressional Vote-Share Equations: November 2010 Update," November 11, 2010, unpublished.
pdf file (62KB).



This is my eighth update of 1978#2. The earlier updates are 1982#1, 1988#5, 1990#3, 1996#1, 1998#2. 2002#4. 2006#3. See also 1996#2 for a less technical discussion.

The specification of the presidential vote equation has not been changed since the update of November 1994 following the 1992 election. The equation has simply been reestimated after each four-year interval using the latest economic data and the results of the previous election.