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"Information Content of DSGE Forecasts: Preliminary Results,"
This paper is a preliminary examination of the question whether information
is contained in forecasts from DSGE models beyond that contained in lagged
values. Three sets of forecasts have been examined so far. The results
are encouraging for DSGE forecasts of real GDP, but not of the GDP deflator.
The hope is that this paper will stimulate more sets of forecasts to
analyze. On a personal note, I am concerned, as discussed in Section 5, that
the results for real GDP may be too good to be true. Further results should
help address this concern, especially forecasts of the components of GDP.