[position in research by date]
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"Estimating Aging Effects in Running Events,"
with Edward H. Kaplan, The Review of
Economics and Statistics, October 2018, 704-711.
published article, pdf file.
This paper uses world running records by age to estimate a biological
frontier of decline rates. Two models are compared: a linear/quadratic
(LQ) model and a non-parametric model. Two estimation methods are used:
1) minimizing the squared difference between the observed records
and the modeled biological frontier and 2) using extreme value theory to
estimate the biological frontier that maximizes the probability of
observing the existing world records by age.
The results support the LQ model and suggest there is linear percentage
decline up to the late 70's and quadratic decline after that.