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"Estimating Aging Effects in Running Events," with Edward H. Kaplan, The Review of Economics and Statistics, October 2018, 704-711.
pdf file.
published article, pdf file.


This paper uses world running records by age to estimate a biological frontier of decline rates. Two models are compared: a linear/quadratic (LQ) model and a non-parametric model. Two estimation methods are used: 1) minimizing the squared difference between the observed records and the modeled biological frontier and 2) using extreme value theory to estimate the biological frontier that maximizes the probability of observing the existing world records by age. The results support the LQ model and suggest there is linear percentage decline up to the late 70's and quadratic decline after that.