[position in research by date]
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"Explaining the Slow U.S. Recovery: 2010-2017,"
Business Economics, October 2018, 184-194.
published article, pdf file.
This paper argues that the slow U.S. recovery after the 2008--2009 recession
was due to sluggish government spending. The analysis uses a
structural macroeconometric model. Conditional on government policy,
the errors in predicting output for the 2009.4--2017.4 period are within
what one would expect historically. Productivity and labor force
participation are endogenous variables in the model and so their behavior
in this period is
a consequence of the slow growth rather than a cause.