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"Explaining the Slow U.S. Recovery: 2010--2017," March 2018.
pdf file.


This paper argues that the slow U.S. recovery after the 2008--2009 recession was due to sluggish government spending. The analysis uses a structural macroeconometric model. Conditional on government policy, the errors in predicting output for the 2009.4--2017.4 period are within what one would expect historically. Productivity and labor force participation are endogenous variables in the model and so their behavior in this period is a consequence of the slow growth rather than a cause.