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"Presidential and Congressional Vote-Share Equations: November 2018 Update," November 14, 2018, unpublished.
pdf file .

Abstract

The three vote-share equations in Fair~(2009) are updated using data available as of November 7, 2018. The equations are reestimated incorporating the new data, and forecasts of the 2020 presidential and House elections are made.
Comments

This is my tenth update of 1978#2. The earlier updates are 1982#1, 1988#5, 1990#3, 1996#1, 1998#2. 2002#4. 2006#3. 2010#3. 2014#2. See also 1996#2 for a less technical discussion.

The specification of the presidential vote equation has not been changed since the update of November 1994 following the 1992 election. The equation has simply been reestimated after each four-year interval using the latest economic data and the results of the previous election.