"Presidential and Congressional Vote-Share Equations: November 2022 Update," November 23, 2022, unpublished.Paper: pdf file
The three vote-share equations in Fair (2009) are updated using data available as of November 21, 2022. The equations are reestimated incorporating the new data, and forecasts of the 2024 presidential and House elections are made.
This is the eleventh update I wrote examining the effects of economic events on votes for president. See 1978 for the original paper. The complete list of papers is here: Papers on Voting. The current and past predictions are here: Vote Predictions.
The specification of the presidential vote equation has not been changed since the update of November 1994 following the 1992 election. The equation has simply been reestimated after each four-year interval using the latest economic data and the results of the previous election.