"Aggregate Estimates of Price Effects from Tariffs," May 2026.

Paper: pdf file Abstract
This paper uses an aggregate price equation to estimate the effects of tariffs on the non farm price deflator. The Trump tariffs are estimated to have increased the deflator by about 2.2 percent by the first quarter of 2026. A sustained increase in tariffs of \$100 billion is estimated to increase the deflator by about 1.4 percent after four quarters.