"Aggregate Estimates of Price Effects from Tariffs," August 2026.

Paper: pdf file Abstract
This paper uses an estimated aggregate price equation to estimate the effects of tariffs on the non farm price deflator. The Trump tariffs are estimated to have increased the deflator by about 3.0 percent by the second quarter of 2026. A sustained increase in the tariff rate on nominal imports of 1.0 percent is estimated to increase the deflator by about 0.6 percent after eight quarters.