"Presidential and Congressional Vote-Share Equations: November 2026 Update," November 9, 2026.

Paper: pdf file Abstract
The three vote-share equations in Fair (2009) are updated using data available as of November 9, 2026. The equations are reestimated incorporating the new data, and forecasts of the 2028 presidential and House elections are made.

Comments
This is the twelfth update I wrote examining the effects of economic events on votes for president. See 1978 for the original paper. The complete list of papers is here: Papers on Voting. The current and past predictions are here: Vote Predictions.

The specification of the presidential vote equation was not changed between the update of November 1994 following the 1992 election and the current update of November 2026 following the 2026 election, eight elections. The equation has simply been reestimated using the latest data. Similarly, no specification changes have been made to the on-term House equation; it has simply been reestimated using the latest data.