Ray C. Fair: Curriculum Vitae

Date: April 2017

Office Address: Cowles Foundation, Yale University, New Haven, CT 06520-8281

Home Address: 233 Everit Street, New Haven, CT 06511

Phone: 203-980-0646

E-mail: ray.fair@yale.edu

Date of Birth: October 4, 1942

Place of Birth: Fresno, CA

Citizenship: United States

Education:
1964-1968: M.I.T., Ph.D., Economics, February 1968
1960-1964: Fresno State College, B.A., Economics, June 1964

Positions:
2000-: Fellow, International Center for Finance at Yale
1979-: Professor, Cowles Foundation, Department of Economics, Yale University
1974-1979: Associate Professor, Cowles Foundation, Department of Economics, Yale University
Fall 1977: Visiting Associate Professor, Department of Economics, M.I.T.
1968-1974: Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Princeton University

Teaching: Macroeconomic Theory, Econometrics, Macroeconometric Models

Fellowships:
Elected Fellow of the Econometric Society---1977
Woodrow Wilson Dissertation Fellowship---1967-1968
National Science Foundation Fellowship---1965-1966, 1966-1967
Woodrow Wilson Fellowship---1964-1965

Research:

  • "Information Content of DSGE Forecasts: Preliminary Results," July 2016.

  • "The Optimal Distribution of Income Revisited," January 2017.

  • "Wealth Effects on World Private Financial Saving," International Economics, May 2017, 15-26.

  • "A Mini Version of the US Model," July 2016.

  • "Household Wealth and Macroeconomic Activity: 2008-2013," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, March-April 2017, 495-523.

  • "Reflections on Macroeconometric Modeling," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, Volume 15, Issue 1, 445-466, 2015.

  • "How Might a Central Bank Report Uncertainty?," Economics: The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Vol. 8, 2014-27, 2014.

  • "Is Fiscal Stimullus a Good Idea?," Business Economics, October 2014, 244-252.

  • "Has Macro Progressed? " Journal of Macroeconomics, 34 (2012), 2-10.

  • "Analyzing Macroeconomic Forecastability, " Journal of Forecasting, 31 (2012), 99-108.

  • "What It Takes To Solve the U.S. Government Deficit Problem," Contemporary Economic Policy, 30, October 2012, 618-628.

  • Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things, Second Edition, 2012, Stanford University Press.

  • "Possible Macroeconomic Consequences of Large Future Federal Government Deficits, " 2011, NBER, Tax Policy and the Economy, Vol. 25, 89-108.

  • "Presidential and Congressional Vote-Share Equations: November 2010 Update," November 11, 2010, unpublished.

  • "Estimated Macroeconomic Effects of the U.S. Stimulus Bill," Contemporary Economic Policy, October 2010, 439-452.

  • "Estimated Macroeconomic Effects of a Chinese Yuan Appreciation," Business Economics, October 2010, 233-243.

  • "Interpreting the Predictive Uncertainty of Elections," The Journal of Politics, April 2009, 612-626.

  • "Presidential and Congressional Vote-Share Equations," American Journal of Political Science, January 2009, 55-72.

  • "Testing Price Equations," European Economic Review, November 2008, 1424-1437.

  • "Estimated Age Effects in Baseball," 2008, Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, Vol. 4: Iss. 1, Article 1.

  • "Branch Rickey's Equation Fifty Years Later," (with Danielle Catambay), Nine, Fall 2008, 111-119.

  • "Evaluating Inflation Targeting Using a Macroeconometric Model," Economics: The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Vol. 1, 2007-8, 2007.

  • "A Comparison of Five Federal Reserve Chairmen: Was Greenspan the Best?" 2007, The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, Vol. 7: Iss. 1 (Contributions), Article 12.

  • "Estimated Age Effects in Athletic Events and Chess," Experimental Aging Research, 2007, 37-57.

  • "College Football Rankings and Market Efficiency," (with John F. Oster), Journal of Sports Economics, February 2007, 3-18.

  • "The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President: 2004 Update," November 1, 2006, unpublished.

  • "Policy Effects in the Post Boom U.S. Economy," 2005, Topics in Macroeconomics, Vol. 5: Iss. 1, Article 19.

  • "Estimates of the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, August 2005, 645-660.

  • "Natural Concepts in Macroeconomics," June 2005, unpublished.

  • Estimating How the Macroeconomy Works, Harvard University Press, 2004.

  • "Testing for a New Economy in the 1990s," Business Economics, January 2004, 43-53.

  • "Optimal Control and Stochastic Simulation of Large Nonlinear Models with Rational Expectations," Computational Economics, June 2003, 245-256.

  • "Bootstrapping Macroeconometric Models," 2003, Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics,, Vol. 7: No. 4, Article 1.

  • "The Great Gatsby: Yale, Princeton, Columbia, Harvard, Oxford," Eastern Economic Journal, Spring 2003, 159-163.

  • "Risk Aversion and Stock Prices," February 2003, unpublished.

  • "Shock Effects on Stocks, Bonds, and Exchange Rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, 2003, 307-341.

  • "The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President: 2000 Update," November 1, 2002, unpublished.

  • "Events that Shook the Market," Journal of Business, October 2002, 713-732.

  • "On Modeling the Effects of Inflation Shocks," 2002, Contributions to Macroeconomics, Vol. 2: Iss. 1, Article 3.

  • Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things, 2002, Stanford University Press.

  • "Actual Federal Reserve Policy Behavior and Interest Rate Rules," FRBNY Economic Policy Review, March 2001, 61-72.

  • "Fed Policy and the Effects of a Stock Market Crash on the Economy," Business Economics, April 2000, 7-14.

  • "Testing the NAIRU Model for the United States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, February 2000, 64-71.

  • "What Can Macroeconometric Models Say About Asia-Type Crises?" May 1999, for presentation at the Twelfth World Congress of the International Economic Association, Buenos Aires, Argentina, August 23-27, 1999, unpublished.

  • "Does the NAIRU Have the Right Dynamics,?" The American Economic Review, May 1999, 58-62.

  • "Evaluating the Information Content and Money Making Ability of Forecasts from Exchange Rate Equations," May 1999, unpublished.

  • "A Fiscal Policy Rule for Stabilization," February 1999, unpublished.

  • "Estimated Inflation Costs Had European Unemployment Been Reduced in the 1980s by Macro Policies," Journal of Macroeconomics, Winter 1999, 1-28.

  • "The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President: 1996 Update," November 6, 1998, unpublished.

  • "Estimated Stabilization Costs of the EMU," National Institute Economic Review, April 1998, 90-99.

  • "Explaining the Labor Force Participation of Women 20-24," (with D. J. Macunovich), February 1997, unpublished.

  • "Computational Methods for Macroeconometric Models," in H.M. Amman, D.A. Kendrick, and J. Rust (eds.), Handbook of Computational Economics, North-Holland Publishing Co., 1996, 143-169.

  • "Computing Median Unbiased Estimates in Macroeconometric Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, 1996, 431-435.

  • "Evaluating Alternative Monetary Policy Rules," (with E.P. Howrey), Journal of Monetary Economics, October 1996, 173-193.

  • "Econometrics and Presidential Elections," The Journal of Economic Perspectives, Summer 1996, 89-102.

  • "The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President: 1992 Update," Political Behavior, June 1996, 119-139.

  • "Can A Tax Plan Save Baseball?" (with Sharon M. Oster), For The Record, December 1994/ January 1995, 9.

  • Testing Macroeconometric Models, Harvard University Press, 1994.

  • "How Fast Do Old Men Slow Down?" The Review of Economics and Statistics, February 1994, 103-118.

  • "Estimating Event Probabilities in Macroeconometric Models using Stochastic Simulation," in J. Stock and M. Watson (eds.), Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting, The University of Chicago Press, 1993, 157-176.

  • "Testing the Rational Expectations Hypothesis in Macroeconometric Models," Oxford Economic Papers, 1993, 169-190.

  • "Testing Macroeconometric Models," The American Economic Review, May 1993, 287-293.

  • "Inflationary Expectations and Price Setting Behavior," The Review of Economics and Statistics, February 1993, 8-18.

  • "The Cowles Commission Approach, Real Business Cycle Theories, and New Keynesian Economics," in Michael T. Belongia and Michelle R. Garfinkel, eds., The Business Cycle: Theories and Evidence, Kluwer Academic Publishers, 1992, 133-147.

  • "Estimation of Distributed Lags and Leads with End Point Constraints," (with D. K. Andrews), Journal of Econometrics, 1992, 123-139.

  • "A Comparison of the Michigan and Fair Models," (with L. Alexander), in Lawrence R. Klein (ed.), Comparative Performance of U.S. Econometric Models, Oxford University Press, 1991, 168-197.

  • "Effects of the Changing U.S. Age Distribution on Macroeconomic Equations," (with K. M. Dominguez), The American Economic Review, December 1991, 1276-1294.

  • "The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President: 1988 Update," November 1990, unpublished.

  • "Full Information Estimation and Stochastic Simulation of Models with Rational Expectations," (with J. B. Taylor), Journal of Applied Econometrics, October-December 1990, 381-392.

  • "Comparing Information in Forecasts from Econometric Models," (with R. J. Shiller), The American Economic Review, June 1990, 375-389.

  • "The Production Smoothing Model is Alive and Well," Journal of Monetary Economics, November 1989, 353-370.

  • "The Informational Content of Ex Ante Forecasts," (with R. J. Shiller), The Review of Economics and Statistics, May 1989, 325-331.

  • "The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President: 1984 Update," Political Behavior, 1988, 168-179.

  • "Inference in Nonlinear Econometric Models with Structural Change," (with D. K. Andrews), Review of Economic Studies, October 1988, 615-640.

  • "Forecasting the Depression: Harvard versus Yale," (with K. M. Dominguez and M. S. Shapiro), The American Economic Review, September 1988, 595-612.

  • "Optimal Choice of Monetary Policy Instruments in a Macroeconometric Model," Journal of Monetary Economics, September 1988, 301-315.

  • "Sources of Economic Fluctuations in the United States," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, May 1988, 313-332.

  • "International Evidence on the Demand for Money," The Review of Economics and Statistics, August 1987, 473-480.

  • "Properties of a Multicountry Econometric Model," Journal of Policy Modeling, Spring 1987, 83-123.

  • "A Comparison of the Michigan and Fair Models: Further Results," (with L. Alexander), in D. A. Belsley and E. Kuh (eds.), Model Reliability, M.I.T. Press, 1986, 191-212.

  • "Evaluating the Predictive Accuracy of Models," in Z. Griliches and M. D. Intriligator (eds.), Handbook of Econometrics, Volume III, North-Holland Publishing Co., 1986, 1979-1995.

  • "Macro Simulations for PCs in the Classroom," (with K. E. Case), The American Economic Review, May 1985, 85-90.

  • "Excess Labor and the Business Cycle," The American Economic Review, March 1985, 239-245.

  • Specification, Estimation, and Analysis of Macroeconometric Models, Harvard University Press, 1984.

  • "Estimated Tradeoffs Between Unemployment and Inflation," in Price Stability and Public Policy, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, 1984, 57-96.

  • "Solution and Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Dynamic Rational Expectations Models," (with J. B. Taylor), Econometrica, July 1983, 1169-1185.

  • "The Effects of Misspecification on Predictive Accuracy," in G. C. Chow and P. Corsi (eds.), Evaluating the Reliability of Macro-Economic Models, John Wiley & Sons, 1982, 193-213.

  • "Estimated Output, Price, Interest Rate, and Exchange Rate Linkages Among Countries," Journal of Political Economy, June 1982, 507-535.

  • "The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President: 1980 Results," The Review of Economics and Statistics, May 1982, 322-325.

  • "The Effects of Relative Prices on Trade Shares," Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No. 597, June 1981.

  • "Estimated Effects of the October 1979 Change in Monetary Policy on the 1980 Economy," The American Economic Review, May 1981, 160-165.

  • "A Multicountry Econometric Model," Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No. 541R, April 1981.

  • "Full-Information Estimates of a Nonlinear Macroeconometric Model," (with W. R. Parke), Journal of Econometrics, September 1980, 269-291.

  • "Estimating the Uncertainty of Policy Effects in Nonlinear Models," Econometrica, September 1980, 1381-1391.

  • "Estimating the Expected Predictive Accuracy of Econometric Models," International Economic Review, June 1980, 355-378.

  • "On Modeling the Economic Linkages Among Countries," in R. Dornbusch and J. A. Frenkel (eds.), International Economic Policy: Theory and Evidence, The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1979, 209-239.

  • "An Analysis of a Macro-Econometric Model with Rational Expectations in the Bond and Stock Markets," The American Economic Review, September 1979, 539-552.

  • "An Analysis of the Accuracy of Four Macroeconometric Models," Journal of Political Economy, August 1979, 701-718.

  • "On Modeling the Effects of Government Policies," The American Economic Review, May 1979, 86-91.

  • "A Model of the Balance of Payments," Journal of International Economics, February 1979, 25-46.

  • "A Criticism of One Class of Macroeconomic Models with Rational Expectations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, November 1978, 411-417.

  • "The Sensitivity of Fiscal-Policy Effects to Assumptions About the Behavior of the Federal Reserve," Econometrica, September 1978, 1165-1179.

  • "Inflation and Unemployment in a Macroeconometric Model," in After The Phillips Curve: Persistence of High Inflation and High Unemployment, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, Conference Series No. 19, June 1978, 164-193.

  • "The Use of Optimal Control Techniques to Measure Economic Performance," International Economic Review, June 1978, 289-309.

  • "The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President," The Review of Economics and Statistics, May 1978, 159-173.

  • "A Theory of Extramarital Affairs," Journal of Political Economy, February 1978, 45-61.

  • "A Note on the Computation of the Tobit Estimator," Econometrica, October 1977, 1723-1727.

  • A Model of Macroeconomic Activity. Volume II: The Empirical Model, Ballinger Publishing Co., 1976.

  • A Model of Macroeconomic Activity. Volume I: The Theoretical Model, Ballinger Publishing Co., 1974.

  • "On the Robust Estimation of Econometric Models," Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, October 1974, 667-677.

  • "An Evaluation of A Short-Run Forecasting Model," International Economic Review, June 1974, 285-303.

  • "Methods of Estimation for Markets in Disequilibrium: A Further Study," (with H. H. Kelejian), Econometrica, January 1974, 177-190.

  • "On the Solution of Optimal Control Problems as Maximization Problems," Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, January 1974, 135-154.

  • "A Comparison of Alternative Estimators of Macroeconomic Models," International Economic Review, June 1973, 261-277.

  • "Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Linear Equation Systems with Auto-regressive Residuals," (with G. C.Chow), Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, January 1973, 17-28.

  • "Efficient Estimation of Simultaneous Equations with Auto-regressive Errors by Instrumental Variables," The Review of Economics and Statistics, November 1972, 444-449.

  • "The Implications of the Proposals of the Hunt Commission for the Mortgage and Housing Markets: An Empirical Study," (with D. M. Jaffee), in Policies for A More Competitive Financial System, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, Conference Series No. 8, June 1972, 99-148.

  • "Disequilibrium in Housing Models," Journal of Finance, May 1972, 207-221.

  • "Methods of Estimation for Markets in Disequilibrium," (with D. M. Jaffee), Econometrica, May 1972, 497-514.

  • A Short-Run Forecasting Model of the United States Economy, D. C. Heath and Co., 1971.

  • "The Optimal Distribution of Income," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, November 1971, 551-579.

  • "The Determination of Yield Differentials Between Debt Instruments of the Same Maturity," (with B. G. Malkiel), Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, November 1971, 733-749.

  • "Labor Force Participation, Wage Rates, and Money Illusion," The Review of Economics and Statistics, May 1971, 164-168.

  • "Sales Expectations and Short-Run Production Decisions," Southern Economic Journal, January 1971, 267-275.

  • "Aggregate Price Changes and Price Expectations," Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, November 1970, 18-28.

  • "The Estimation of Simultaneous Equation Models with Lagged Endogenous Variables and First Order Serially Correlated Errors," Econometrica, May 1970, 507-516.

  • The Short-Run Demand for Workers and Hours, North-Holland Publishing Co., 1969.