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The Forecasting Record of the US Model: July 27, 2001
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Data revisions make it difficult to compare forecasted and actual
values. Should the forecasted values be compared to the first release
of the data, the second release, the first major revision release, the
last major revision release, etc.? How should one treat conceptual
changes? Since the first US model forecast analyzed here (September 23,
1983), there have been many revisions of the data in the national income and
product accounts and two major conceptual changes. The first
major conceptual change was the shift in focus from GNP to GDP, and
the second was moving to a chain-type measure of real GDP.
Regarding GNP versus GDP, the model treats the difference between the
two as exogenous, and for forecasting purposes the difference is
taken to be roughly unchanged over time. This means that the forecasted
growth rates of GNP and GDP are essentially the same. One can thus look
at the past forecasts of GNP growth rates
(before the shift in focus) as also forecasts
of GDP growth rates,
and they can thus be compared to the actual GDP growth rates. This
is what is done in the following tables. The actual values for all quarters
are taken to
be the actual GDP growth rates, but the forecast values before the change
in focus are taken to be
GNP growth rates. The same is true for the price index: the
actual values are taken to be the actual growth rates of the
GDP deflator, but the forecast values before the change in
focus are taken to be the growth rates of the GNP deflator.
Regarding the move to a chain-type measure, the following tables use the
new measure. In other words, the model is being judged on how well it
has forecasted the current estimates of the
actual values based on the chain-type
measure. If one thinks of these actual values as being the best current
estimates of what actually happened, then the model is being judged on
how it predicted what actually happened.
This seems to be an interesting comparison, although there is clearly no
right or wrong choice. Other choices could be made.
Beginning in October 1999 and continuing through April 2000 the
NIPA data were revised back to 1929, and the revised data
are used for the actual values
in the tables below. Again, the model is being judged on how well it
has forecasted the current estimates of what actually happened.
Tables 1 through 5 present the forecasting record of the model for real
GDP, the GDP deflator, and the unemployment rate.
The tables are fairly self explanatory,
and only Tables 4 and 5 will be discussed here.
Tables 4 and 5 show how well the model forecasts one year
ahead. Table 4 presents for each forecast the actual and predicted values
of the growth rate of real GDP four quarters ahead, that is, the growth rate
of real GDP over the first four quarters from the beginning of the forecast
period. The results are as follows.
The model did extremely
well in predicting the strong growth in the last half of
1983 and in 1984 and 1985. For example, the growth rate in the
1983:3-1984:2 period was 7.9 percent, and the model
predicted 7.4 percent. The
model overpredicted slightly the period around 1986 (forecasts 10-13),
although the largest error is only 1.5 percentage points.
It was then reasonably accurate until the recession of 1990-1991, which it
missed. As is well known, the recession of 1990-1991 was
hard to predict, and
the model certainly did not predict it. The model did well in
predicting the size of the recovery from the recession (forecasts 32-40).
Forecasts 41-44 underpredicted the growth rate between 0.9 and 1.8
percentage points. Forecasts 45-48 were
fairly accurate. Between forecasts 49 and 66 (July 29, 1995, through
November 5, 1999),
the model underpredicted the growth rate by an average of 1.8
percentage points.
The largest error in this period is for forecast 62 (November 3, 1998),
where the model underpredicted by 3.1 percentage points.
Much of the strong growth between 1995 and 1999 was probably due to the
wealth effect from the stock market boom, and the stock market boom was
not predicted by the model. This is probably the main reason for the
underprediction of the growth rate between 1995 and 1999.
Forecast 67 (January 29, 2000) was off by only .1 percentage points,
and forecasts 68 and 69 (April 28, 2000, and July 31, 2000) overpredicted
by 1.0 and 1.2 percentage points respectively.
The mean absolute error for the 69 forecasts in Table 4 is 1.14 percentage
points.
Table 5 is the same as Table 4 except that it is for the growth rate of
the GDP price index. The mean absolute error for the inflation forecasts is
only 0.57 percentage points, and the largest error in absolute value for any
of the forecasts is only 1.8 percentage points. The inflation forecasts are
thus overall quite good.
Between forecasts 39 and 66 (January 31, 1993, through November 5, 1999)
the error was never larger than .5 percentage points in absolute value.
For forecasts 67, 68, and 69 (January 29, 2000, April 28, 2000, and
July 31, 2000)
the model overpredicted inflation by .8, 1.3, and .9 percentage points
respectively.
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Forecasting Record Tables: July 27, 2001
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Table 1: Predicted and Actual Values of the Growth Rate of
Real GDP
Table 2: Predicted and Actual Values of the Growth
Rate of the GDP Deflator
Table 3: Predicted and Actual Values of the
Unemployment Rate
Table 4: Predicted and Actual Values for Four-Quarter
Real Growth
Table 5: Predicted and Actual Values for Four-Quarter
Inflation
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Table 1: Predicted and Actual Values of the Growth Rate of
Real GDP |
Table 1
Predicted and Actual Values of the Growth Rate of Real GDP
833 834 841 842 843 844 851 852 853 854
Actual: 7.3 8.5 9.0 6.9 3.5 3.1 3.4 3.2 6.1 3.3
Forecast Dated:
1. Sept.23, 1983 8.2 7.5 7.0 6.8 7.0 6.5 5.9 5.3 4.5 3.9
2. Dec. 3, 1983 7.1 6.3 5.8 5.4 4.8 4.4 3.9 3.4 3.0
3. Jan. 28, 1984 5.8 6.6 6.3 5.9 5.3 4.6 3.9 3.2
4. April 24, 1984 5.6 4.7 4.4 4.0 3.7 3.4 3.0
5. July 26, 1984 6.0 5.2 4.3 3.7 3.0 2.5
6. Oct. 24, 1984 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.3
7. Jan. 24, 1985 5.1 4.8 4.6 3.9
8. April 20, 1985 4.3 3.7 4.0
9. July 22, 1985 4.2 4.5
10. Oct. 22, 1985 4.4
Table 1 (continued)
Predicted and Actual Values of the Growth Rate of Real GDP
853 854 861 862 863 864
Actual: 6.1 3.3 3.7 1.7 3.8 2.1
Forecast Dated:
9. July 22, 1985 4.2 4.5 3.9 3.9 3.4 3.0
10. Oct. 22, 1985 4.4 4.4 4.3 3.6 3.0
11. Jan. 27, 1986 4.2 4.1 3.3 2.7
Table 1 (continued)
Predicted and Actual Values of the Growth Rate of Real GDP
862 863 864 871 872 873 874 881 882 883 884
Actual: 1.7 3.8 2.1 3.0 4.3 3.3 7.1 2.7 4.8 2.1 5.3
Forecast Dated:
12. April 21, 1986 4.9 4.2 3.6 3.6 3.4 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1
13. July 28, 1986 4.7 4.3 4.4 3.8 4.2 3.9 3.6 3.3 3.1 3.0
14. October 25, 1986 4.2 3.4 3.4 4.2 4.1 3.8 3.8 3.2 3.0
15. January 25, 1987 3.0 3.7 3.2 4.2 4.1 3.9 3.5 3.2
16. May 4, 1987 2.6 4.1 3.1 3.3 3.7 3.6 3.5
17. July 30, 1987 2.7 3.2 3.1 4.0 4.1 3.9
18. October 31, l987 3.1 2.2 2.7 2.8 3.1
19. January 30, 1988 2.4 3.0 2.9 3.4
20. April 28, 1988 2.9 3.0 3.3
21. July 29, 1988 3.3 3.7
22. October 28, 1988 3.6
Table 1 (continued)
Predicted and Actual Values of the Growth Rate of Real GDP
882 883 884 891 892 893 894 901 902 903 904
Actual: 4.8 2.1 5.3 5.0 2.2 1.9 1.4 5.1 0.9 -0.7 -3.2
Forecast Dated:
20. April 28, 1988 2.9 3.0 3.3 3.4 3.2 2.9 2.7 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.7
21. July 29, 1988 3.3 3.7 3.5 3.1 2.8 2.4 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.4
22. October 28, 1988 3.6 3.9 3.6 3.2 2.9 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.7
23. January 31, 1989 4.7 3.2 3.2 3.1 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.6
24. April 27, 1989 2.8 3.2 3.2 2.9 2.6 2.4 2.2
25. July 30, 1989 1.9 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.7 2.5
26. October 29, 1989 2.7 3.0 2.9 2.6 2.7
27. January 31, 1990 1.8 2.3 2.8 2.8
28. May 1, 1990 2.4 3.1 3.0
29. July 31, 1990 0.9 1.9
30. November 2, 1990 0.3
Table 1 (continued)
Predicted and Actual Values of the Growth Rate of Real GDP
902 903 904 911 912 913 914 921 922 923 924
Actual: 0.9 -0.7 -3.2 -2.0 2.3 1.0 2.2 3.8 3.8 3.1 5.4
Forecast Dated:
28. May 1, 1990 2.4 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.7 2.5 2.3 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5
29. July 31, 1990 0.9 1.9 2.5 2.8 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.9
30. November 2, 1990 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.3 1.7 2.3 2.7 2.9 3.0
31. January 30,1991 2.6 2.3 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.8 2.9 2.9
32. April 29, 1991 1.3 1.8 3.1 3.8 4.0 4.0 3.8
33. July 27, 1991 0.9 2.6 3.4 3.6 3.6 3.4
34. October 30, 1991 1.9 3.1 3.9 3.5 3.4
35. February 2, 1992 2.2 3.2 3.4 4.2
36. April 30, 1992 4.4 4.0 4.6
37. August 5, 1992 2.4 3.3
38. November 6, 1992 2.5
Table 1 (continued)
Predicted and Actual Values of the Growth Rate of Real GDP
922 923 924 931 932 933 934 941 942 943 944
Actual: 3.8 3.1 5.4 -0.1 2.5 1.8 6.2 3.4 5.7 2.2 5.0
Forecast Dated:
36. April 30, 1992 4.4 4.0 4.6 4.8 3.9 3.2 2.8 2.3 2.0 2.3 2.4
37. August 5, 1992 2.4 3.3 4.0 4.1 3.8 3.4 2.9 2.5 2.6 2.6
38. November 6, 1992 2.5 3.3 3.5 3.8 3.6 3.3 2.9 2.6 2.3
39. January 31, 1993 4.1 2.5 2.7 3.2 3.1 3.1 2.9 2.7
40. May 1, 1993 2.1 2.4 3.1 3.5 3.6 3.5 3.2
41. September 5, 1993 2.8 2.8 2.4 2.1 2.1 2.2
42. November 1, 1993 3.0 3.2 3.0 2.6 2.4
43. February 2, 1994 3.9 3.3 2.8 2.5
44. May 2, 1994 2.8 2.6 2.8
45. August 2, 1994 1.2 2.1
46. November 1, 1994 1.2
Table 1 (continued)
Predicted and Actual Values of the Growth Rate of Real GDP
942 943 944 951 952 953 954 961 962 963 964
Actual: 5.7 2.2 5.0 1.5 0.8 3.1 3.2 2.9 6.8 2.0 4.6
Forecast Dated:
44. May 2, 1994 2.8 2.6 2.8 2.6 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.2
45. August 2, 1994 1.2 2.1 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.1
46. November 1, 1994 1.2 2.5 2.3 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2
47. January 30, 1995 1.2 1.6 2.3 2.6 2.8 2.9 2.9 2.9
48. April 29, 1995 2.1 2.5 2.9 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.4
49. July 29, 1995 2.4 2.5 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.5
50. October 28, 1995 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.3 2.2
51. February 29, 1996 2.7 2.8 2.3 2.3
52. May 3, 1996 3.7 2.6 2.3
53. August 2, 1996 2.9 2.2
Table 1 (continued)
Predicted and Actual Values of the Growth Rate of Real GDP
962 963 964 971 972 973 974 981 982 983 984
Actual: 6.8 2.0 4.6 4.4 5.9 4.2 2.8 6.1 2.2 4.1 6.7
Forecast Dated:
52. May 3, 1996 3.7 2.6 2.3 2.2 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.4
53. August 2, 1996 2.9 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.6
54. November 1, 1996 1.9 2.5 2.8 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.5
55. February 1, 1997 3.0 2.5 2.3 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.4
56. May 9, 1997 3.7 2.7 2.4 2.0 1.8 1.9 2.0
57. August 4, 1997 1.1 2.2 2.5 2.3 2.2 2.2
58. November 11, 1997 3.5 3.3 2.6 2.3 2.1
59. January 30, 1998 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.2
60. April 30, 1998 2.2 3.0 2.8
61. July 31, 1998 2.3 2.5
Table 1 (continued)
Predicted and Actual Values of the Growth Rate of Real GDP
982 983 984 991 992 993 994 001 002 003 004
Actual: 2.2 4.1 6.7 3.1 1.7 4.7 8.3 2.3 5.7 1.3 1.9
Forecast Dated:
60. April 30, 1998 2.2 3.0 2.8 2.2 2.0 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.1
61. July 31, 1998 2.3 2.5 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.1
62. November 3, 1998 1.6 0.5 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.3
63. January 30, 1999 3.1 2.5 1.9 1.6 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.3
64. May 1, 1999 4.1 3.0 2.2 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.7
65. July 30, 1999 4.0 2.9 3.0 3.2 2.9 2.6
66. November 5, 1999 3.7 3.1 3.3 3.2 3.1
67. January 29, 2000 3.2 3.2 2.8 2.3
68. April 28, 2000 5.4 3.8 2.4
Table 1 (continued)
Predicted and Actual Values of the Growth Rate of Real GDP
002 003 004 011 012 013 014 021 022 023 024
Actual: 5.7 1.3 1.9 1.3 0.7
Forecast Dated:
68. April 28, 2000 5.4 3.8 2.4 2.3 1.9 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.9
69. July 31, 2000 3.4 2.4 2.3 2.0 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.8 2.0 2.2
70. October 30, 2000 2.4 3.3 2.6 2.1 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.2
71. January 31, 2001 0.8 0.7 1.1 1.4 1.6 1.9 2.0 2.1
72. April 27, 2001 3.4 2.4 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.6
73. July 27, 2001 2.0 1.4 1.7 1.9 1.8 1.9
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Table 2: Predicted and Actual Values of the Growth Rate of
the GDP Deflator |
Table 2
Predicted and Actual Values of the Growth Rate of the GDP Deflator
833 834 841 842 843 844 851 852 853 854
Actual: 3.6 3.6 4.8 3.2 3.2 2.9 4.3 2.7 1.9 3.0
Forecast Dated:
1. Sept. 23, 1983 5.3 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.2 5.5 5.8 6.1 6.3 6.5
2. Dec. 3, 1983 4.4 4.8 5.1 5.3 5.6 5.9 6.1 6.2 6.3
3. Jan. 28, 1984 4.2 4.5 4.9 5.2 5.6 5.8 6.1 6.3
4. April 24, 1984 4.4 4.7 5.0 5.3 5.5 5.7 5.9
5. July 26, 1984 4.6 4.9 5.3 5.5 5.6 5.7
6. Oct. 24, 1984 4.1 4.3 4.4 4.6 4.7
7. Jan. 24, 1985 4.1 4.4 4.7 5.0
8. April 20, 1985 3.5 3.8 4.0
9. July 22, 1985 3.2 3.5
10. Oct. 22, 1985 3.9
Table 2 (continued)
Predicted and Actual Values of the Growth Rate of the GDP Deflator
853 854 861 862 863 864
Actual: 1.9 3.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 2.7
Forecast Dated:
9. July 22, 1985 3.2 3.5 3.7 3.9 4.2 4.4
10. Oct. 22, 1985 3.9 3.6 3.6 3.8 3.9
11. Jan. 27, 1986 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.1
Table 2 (continued)
Predicted and Actual Values of the Growth Rate of the GDP Deflator
862 863 864 871 872 873 874 881 882 883 884
Actual: 2.0 2.5 2.7 3.7 3.0 2.7 3.5 2.7 4.2 4.7 3.1
Forecast Dated:
12. April 21, 1986 2.6 2.8 2.9 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.3
13. July 28, 1986 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.4 2.5 2.7 2.8 2.9
14. October 25, 1986 2.4 2.2 2.0 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.3 2.4
15. January 25, 1987 2.6 2.4 2.4 2.2 2.3 2.5 2.6 2.7
16. May 4, 1987 2.5 2.6 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.4
17. July 30, 1987 4.6 3.2 3.4 3.5 3.7 3.9
18. October 31, l987 2.7 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.8
19. January 30, 1988 3.6 3.7 3.9 4.0
20. April 28, 1988 3.2 3.4 3.6
21. July 29, 1988 4.1 3.9
22. October 28, 1988 3.6
Table 2 (continued)
Predicted and Actual Values of the Growth Rate of the GDP Deflator
882 883 884 891 892 893 894 901 902 903 904
Actual: 4.2 4.7 3.1 4.3 4.0 2.9 3.0 4.5 4.7 3.9 3.5
Forecast Dated:
20. April 28, 1988 3.2 3.4 3.6 3.7 3.9 4.0 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5
21. July 29, 1988 4.1 3.9 4.1 4.3 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.9 4.9
22. October 28, 1988 3.6 3.8 4.0 4.2 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.8
23. January 31, 1989 3.1 4.0 4.0 4.2 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.6
24. April 27, 1989 4.0 4.5 4.7 4.9 5.1 5.2 5.3
25. July 30, 1989 4.1 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.9
26. October 29, 1989 3.6 3.8 4.0 4.2 4.3
27. January 31, 1990 4.2 3.9 3.8 3.9
28. May 1, 1990 5.1 4.4 4.3
29. July 31, 1990 2.5 2.7
30. November 2, 1990 3.5
Table 2 (continued)
Predicted and Actual Values of the Growth Rate of the GDP Deflator
902 903 904 911 912 913 914 921 922 923 924
Actual: 4.7 3.9 3.5 4.7 2.9 2.5 2.3 3.1 2.2 1.3 2.5
Forecast Dated:
28. May 1, 1990 5.1 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.4 4.5
29. July 31, 1990 2.5 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.1 3.3 3.4 3.6 3.7 3.9
30. November 2, 1990 3.5 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.1
31. January 30, 1991 3.3 3.7 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.3
32. April 29, 1991 2.2 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.1 3.3
33. July 27, 1991 3.9 4.0 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.3
34. October 30, 1991 2.9 2.9 3.1 3.3 3.5
35. February 2, 1992 3.1 2.8 2.9 3.0
36. April 30, 1992 3.0 2.9 2.9
37. August 5, 1992 2.0 2.1
38. November 6, 1992 1.5
Table 2 (continued)
Predicted and Actual Values of the Growth Rate of the GDP Deflator
922 923 924 931 932 933 934 941 942 943 944
Actual: 2.2 1.3 2.5 3.4 2.2 1.8 2.3 2.0 1.8 2.4 1.9
Forecast Dated:
36. April 30, 1992 3.0 2.9 2.9 3.3 3.5 3.7 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.0 4.1
37. August 5, 1992 2.0 2.1 2.3 2.6 2.9 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6
38. November 6, 1992 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.4 2.5 2.7 2.8
39. January 31, 1993 1.3 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.6 2.8 3.0 3.2
40. May 1, 1993 1.8 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.7 2.9
41. September 5, 1993 2.4 2.4 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.7
42. November 1, 1993 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.4
43. February 2, 1994 1.6 1.6 1.9 2.2
44. May 2, 1994 1.6 1.8 2.0
45. August 2, 1994 2.3 2.1
46. November 1, 1994 2.6
Table 2 (continued)
Predicted and Actual Values of the Growth Rate of the GDP Deflator
942 943 944 951 952 953 954 961 962 963 964
Actual: 1.8 2.4 1.9 3.0 1.7 1.8 2.0 2.5 1.4 1.9 1.6
Forecast Dated:
44. May 2, 1994 1.6 1.8 2.0 1.8 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.4
45. August 2, 1994 2.3 2.1 2.1 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6
46. November 1, 1994 2.6 2.4 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.6
47. January 30, 1995 2.1 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4
48. April 29, 1995 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.8
49. July 29, 1995 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.5 2.5 2.5
50. October 28, 1995 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.5
51. February 29, 1996 1.5 1.8 2.0 2.1
52. May 3, 1996 1.7 1.9 2.0
53. August 2, 1996 1.7 2.0
Table 2 (continued)
Predicted and Actual Values of the Growth Rate of the GDP Deflator
962 963 964 971 972 973 974 981 982 983 984
Actual: 1.4 1.9 1.6 2.9 1.9 1.2 1.4 1.1 1.0 1.4 1.1
Forecast Dated:
52. May 3, 1996 1.7 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.5
53. August 2, 1996 1.7 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.4
54. November 1, 1996 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3
55. February 1, 1997 1.3 1.7 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.2
56. May 9, 1997 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.9
57. August 4, 1997 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8
58. November 11, 1997 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9
59. January 30, 1998 1.1 1.6 1.7 1.8
60. April 30, 1998 1.0 1.4 1.5
61. July 31, 1998 1.4 1.8
Table 2 (continued)
Predicted and Actual Values of the Growth Rate of the GDP Deflator
982 983 984 991 992 993 994 001 002 003 004
Actual: 1.0 1.4 1.1 1.8 1.3 1.4 1.6 3.8 2.2 1.9 1.7
Forecast Dated:
60. April 30, 1998 1.0 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.0
61. July 31, 1998 1.4 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.9
62. November 3, 1998 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.7
63. January 30, 1999 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7
64. May 1, 1999 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0
65. July 30, 1999 1.8 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.3
66. November 5, 1999 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8
67. January 29, 2000 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.1
68. April 28, 2000 3.5 3.6 3.7
Table 2 (continued)
Predicted and Actual Values of the Growth Rate of the GDP Deflator
002 003 004 011 012 013 014 021 022 023 024
Actual: 2.2 1.9 1.7 3.3 2.3
Forecast Dated:
68. April 28, 2000 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.1
69. July 31, 2000 2.7 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.2
70. October 30, 2000 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.3
71. January 31, 2001 3.3 3.2 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.6
72. April 27, 2001 3.2 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.7
73. July 27, 2001 2.7 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.6
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Table 3: Predicted and
Actual Values of the Unemployment Rate |
Table 3
Predicted and Actual Values of the Unemployment Rate
833 834 841 842 843 844 851 852 853 854
Actual: 9.4 8.5 7.9 7.5 7.5 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.2 7.1
Forecast Dated:
1. Sept. 23, 1983 9.6 9.3 9.1 9.0 8.8 8.6 8.4 8.3 8.1 8.0
2. Dec. 3, 1983 9.1 8.8 8.5 8.3 8.1 8.0 7.8 7.7 7.5
3. Jan. 22, 1984 8.4 8.3 8.2 8.0 7.8 7.7 7.6 7.5
4. April 24, 1984 7.9 7.9 7.9 7.9 7.9 7.8 7.7
5. July 26, 1984 7.6 7.7 7.6 7.6 7.6 7.5
6. Oct. 24, 1984 7.7 7.8 7.9 7.9 7.9
7. Jan. 25, 1985 7.1 7.0 6.8 6.7
8. April 20, 1985 7.3 7.3 7.3
9. July 22, 1985 7.3 7.2
10. Oct. 22, 1985 7.2
Table 3 (continued)
Predicted and Actual Values of the Unemployment Rate
853 854 861 862 863 864
Actual: 7.2 7.1 7.0 7.2 7.0 6.8
Forecast Dated:
9. July 22, 1985 7.3 7.2 7.0 6.9 6.8 6.7
10. Oct. 22, 1985 7.2 7.1 6.9 6.8 6.6
11. Jan. 27, 1986 6.9 6.7 6.6 6.6
Table 3 (continued)
Predicted and Actual Values of the Unemployment Rate
862 863 864 871 872 873 874 881 882 883 884
Actual: 7.2 7.0 6.8 6.6 6.3 6.0 5.9 5.7 5.5 5.5 5.4
Forecast Dated:
12. April 21, 1986 6.8 6.6 6.4 6.3 6.2 6.0 5.9 5.8 5.6 5.5 5.4
13. July 28, 1986 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.2 7.1 6.9 6.8 6.6 6.5 6.3
14. October 25, 1986 7.1 7.2 7.3 7.4 7.4 7.3 7.2 7.1 7.0
15. January 25, 1987 6.9 6.9 7.0 7.0 7.0 6.9 6.8 6.7
16. May 4, 1987 6.5 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.2 6.1 6.1
17. July 30, 1987 6.1 6.0 6.0 5.8 5.7 5.5
18. October 31, 1987 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 5.9
19. January 30, 1988 5.8 5.7 5.5 5.4
20. April 28, 1988 5.5 5.3 5.0
21. July 29, 1988 5.3 5.1
22. October 28, 1988 5.2
Table 3 (continued)
Predicted and Actual Values of the Unemployment Rate
882 883 884 891 892 893 894 901 902 903 904
Actual: 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.2 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.3 5.3 5.7 6.1
Forecast Dated:
20. April 28, 1988 5.5 5.3 5.0 4.8 4.7 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.2
21. July 29, 1988 5.3 5.1 4.9 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.8 4.8
22. October 28, 1988 5.2 4.9 4.7 4.5 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.1
23. January 31, 1989 5.0 4.7 4.6 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.2
24. April 27, 1989 4.9 4.7 4.5 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.2
25. July 30, 1989 5.2 5.0 4.8 4.7 4.5 4.5
26. October 29, 1989 5.0 4.8 4.6 4.5 4.4
27. January 31, 1990 5.2 5.1 5.0 4.8
28. May 1, 1990 5.0 4.8 4.6
29. July 31, 1990 5.4 5.3
30. November 2, 1990 5.6
Table 3 (continued)
Predicted and Actual Values of the Unemployment Rate
902 903 904 911 912 913 914 921 922 923 924
Actual: 5.3 5.7 6.1 6.6 6.8 6.9 7.1 7.4 7.6 7.6 7.4
Forecast Dated:
28. May 1, 1990 5.0 4.8 4.6 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.6
29. July 31, 1990 5.4 5.3 5.1 5.0 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.6
30. November 2, 1990 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.3 5.2 5.1 5.0 4.9
31. January 31, 1991 6.1 6.1 6.0 5.9 5.8 5.7 5.6 5.5
32. April 29, 1991 6.8 6.9 6.7 6.5 6.2 6.0 5.8
33. July 27, 1991 7.0 7.0 6.8 6.5 6.3 6.1
34. October 30, 1991 6.8 6.6 6.4 6.2 6.0
35. February 2, 1992 6.9 6.8 6.7 6.5
36. April 30, 1992 7.0 6.8 6.5
37. August 5, 1992 7.2 6.8
38. November 6, 1992 7.3
Table 3 (continued)
Predicted and Actual Values of the Unemployment Rate
922 923 924 931 932 933 934 941 942 943 944
Actual: 7.6 7.6 7.4 7.2 7.1 6.8 6.6 6.6 6.2 6.0 5.6
Forecast Dated:
36. April 30, 1992 7.0 6.8 6.5 6.2 5.9 5.8 5.7 5.6 5.7 5.7 5.7
37. August 5, 1992 7.2 6.8 6.4 6.0 5.6 5.3 5.1 4.9 4.9 4.8
38. November 6, 1992 7.3 7.0 6.6 6.2 5.8 5.5 5.3 5.1 5.0
39. January 31, 1993 7.1 6.8 6.7 6.5 6.4 6.3 6.3 6.3
40. May 1, 1993 6.8 6.6 6.5 6.4 6.2 6.1 6.0
41. September 5, 1993 6.7 6.5 6.3 6.2 6.0 6.0
42. November 1, 1993 6.5 6.3 6.0 5.9 5.7
43. February 2, 1994 6.2 5.8 5.6 5.5
44. May 2, 1994 6.3 6.2 6.0
45. August 2, 1994 5.9 5.8
46. November 1, 1994 5.9
Table 3 (continued)
Predicted and Actual Values of the Unemployment Rate
942 943 944 951 952 953 954 961 962 963 964
Actual: 6.2 6.0 5.6 5.5 5.7 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.3 5.3
Forecast Dated:
44. May 2, 1994 6.3 6.2 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.1 6.2 6.2
45. August 2, 1994 5.9 5.8 5.7 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.6
46. November 1, 1994 5.9 5.7 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.7
47. January 30, 1995 5.4 5.3 5.3 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2
48. April 29, 1995 5.3 5.1 5.0 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.8
49. July 29, 1995 5.7 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6
50. October 28, 1995 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.4
51. February 29, 1996 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5
52. May 3, 1996 5.5 5.5 5.5
53. August 2, 1996 5.3 5.3
Table 3 (continued)
Predicted and Actual Values of the Unemployment Rate
962 963 964 971 972 973 974 981 982 983 984
Actual: 5.5 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.0 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.4 4.5 4.4
Forecast Dated:
52. May 3, 1996 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.6 5.6 5.7 5.7 5.8 5.8 5.9
53. August 2, 1996 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.7 5.7 5.8 5.9 5.9
54. November 1, 1996 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.5
55. February 1, 1997 5.2 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.2 5.2 5.2
56. May 9, 1997 5.0 4.9 4.8 4.7 4.8 4.8 4.9
57. August 4, 1997 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9
58. November 11, 1997 4.7 4.5 4.3 4.2 4.2
59. January 30, 1998 4.6 4.4 4.3 4.2
60. April 30, 1998 4.6 4.5 4.4
61. July 31, 1998 4.3 4.1
Table 3 (continued)
Predicted and Actual Values of the Unemployment Rate
982 983 984 991 992 993 994 001 002 003 004
Actual: 4.4 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.0
Forecast Dated:
60. April 30, 1998 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.8
61. July 31, 1998 4.3 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7
62. November 3, 1998 4.4 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.8 4.9
63. January 30, 1999 4.3 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.3
64. May 1, 1999 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.1 4.1
65. July 30, 1999 4.1 4.1 4.0 3.9 3.9 3.9
66. November 5, 1999 4.1 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.7
67. January 29, 2000 4.0 3.8 3.7 3.7
68. April 28, 2000 3.7 3.4 3.3
Table 3 (continued)
Predicted and Actual Values of the Unemployment Rate
002 003 004 011 012 013 014 021 022 023 024
Actual: 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.2 4.5
Forecast Dated:
68. April 28, 2000 3.7 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.9 4.0 4.1
69. July 31, 2000 4.0 3.8 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.9 3.9 4.0
70. October 30, 2000 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.9
71. January 31, 2001 4.2 4.3 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.8 4.8
72. April 27, 2001 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7
73. July 27, 2001 4.7 4.8 4.8 4.9 4.9 5.0
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Table 4: Predicted and
Actual Values for Four-Quarter Real Growth |
Table 4
Predicted and Actual Values of the Growth Rate of Real GDP
Over the First Four Quarters of the Forecast Period
Act. Pred. Pred.-Act. Period
1. September 23, 1983 7.9 7.4 -.5 833-842
2. December 3, 1983 7.0 6.1 -.9 834-843
3. January 28, 1984 5.6 6.0 .4 841-844
4. April 24, 1984 4.2 4.7 .5 842-851
5. July 26, 1984 3.3 4.8 1.5 843-852
6. October 24, 1984 3.9 3.2 -.7 844-853
7. January 24, 1985 4.0 4.6 .6 851-854
8. April 20, 1985 4.1 3.9 -.2 852-861
9. July 22, 1985 3.7 4.1 .4 853-862
10. October 22, 1985 3.1 4.2 1.1 854-863
11. January 27, 1986 2.8 3.6 .8 861-864
12. April 21, 1986 2.6 4.1 1.5 862-871
13. July 28, 1986 3.3 4.3 1.0 863-872
14. October 25, 1986 3.2 3.8 .6 864-873
15. January 25, 1987 4.4 3.5 -.9 871-874
16. May 4, 1987 4.4 3.3 -1.1 872-881
17. July 30, 1987 4.5 3.2 -1.3 873-882
18. October 31, 1987 4.1 2.7 -1.4 874-883
19. January 30, 1988 3.7 2.9 -.8 881-884
20. April 28, 1988 4.3 3.1 -1.2 882-891
21. July 29, 1988 3.6 3.4 -.2 883-892
22. October 28, 1988 3.6 3.6 .0 884-893
23. January 31, 1989 2.6 3.5 .9 891-894
24. April 27, 1989 2.6 3.0 .4 892-901
25. July 30, 1989 2.3 2.5 .2 893-902
26. October 29, 1989 1.6 2.8 1.2 894-903
27. January 31, 1990 0.0 2.4 2.4 901-904
28. May 1, 1990 -1.3 2.8 4.1 902-911
29. July 31, 1990 -0.9 2.0 2.9 903-912
30. November 2, 1990 -0.5 0.8 1.3 904-913
31. January 30, 1991 0.9 2.5 1.6 911-914
32. April 29, 1991 2.3 2.5 .2 912-921
33. July 27, 1991 2.7 2.6 -.1 913-922
34. October 30, 1991 3.2 3.1 -.1 914-923
35. February 2, 1992 4.0 3.2 -.8 921-924
36. April 30, 1992 3.0 4.4 1.4 922-931
37. August 5, 1992 2.7 3.4 .7 923-932
38. November 6, 1992 2.4 3.3 .9 924-933
39. January 31, 1993 2.5 3.1 .6 931-934
40. May 1, 1993 3.4 2.8 -.6 932-941
41. September 5, 1993 4.3 2.5 -1.8 933-942
42. November 1, 1993 4.4 2.9 -1.5 934-943
43. February 2, 1994 4.1 3.1 -1.0 941-944
44. May 2, 1994 3.6 2.7 -.9 942-951
45. August 2, 1994 2.4 2.1 -.3 943-952
46. November 1, 1994 2.6 2.0 -.6 944-953
47. January 30, 1995 2.2 1.9 -.3 951-954
48. April 29, 1995 2.5 2.5 .0 952-961
49. July 29, 1995 4.0 2.4 -1.6 953-962
50. October 28, 1995 3.7 2.4 -1.3 954-963
51. February 29, 1996 4.1 2.5 -1.6 961-964
52. May 3, 1996 4.5 2.7 -1.8 962-971
53. August 2, 1996 4.0 2.3 -1.7 963-972
54. November 1, 1996 4.5 2.4 -2.1 964-973
55. February 1, 1997 4.3 2.5 -1.8 971-974
56. May 9, 1997 4.7 2.7 -2.0 972-981
57. August 4, 1997 3.8 2.0 -1.8 973-982
58. November 11, 1997 3.8 2.9 -.9 974-983
59. January 30, 1998 4.8 2.5 -2.3 981-984
60. April 30, 1998 4.0 2.5 -1.5 982-991
61. July 31, 1998 3.9 2.0 -1.9 983-992
62. November 3, 1998 4.0 0.9 -3.1 984-993
63. January 30, 1999 4.4 2.3 -2.1 991-994
64. May 1, 1999 4.2 3.0 -1.2 992-001
65. July 30, 1999 5.2 3.3 -1.9 993-002
66. November 5, 1999 4.4 3.3 -1.1 994-003
67. January 29, 2000 2.8 2.9 .1 001-004
68. April 28, 2000 2.5 3.5 1.0 002-011
69. July 31, 2000 1.3 2.5 1.2 003-012
Mean Absolute Error 1.14
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Table 5: Predicted and
Actual Values for Four-Quarter Inflation |
Table 5
Predicted and Actual Values of the Growth Rate of the GDP Price
Index Over the First Four Quarters of the Forecast Period
Act. Pred. Pred.-Act. Period
1. September 23, 1983 3.8 5.1 1.3 833-842
2. December 3, 1983 3.7 4.9 1.2 834-843
3. January 28, 1984 3.5 4.7 1.2 841-844
4. April 24, 1984 3.4 4.8 1.4 842-851
5. July 26, 1984 3.3 5.1 1.8 843-852
6. October 24, 1984 3.0 4.3 1.3 844-853
7. January 24, 1985 3.0 4.5 1.5 851-854
8. April 20, 1985 2.3 3.9 1.6 852-861
9. July 22, 1985 2.1 3.6 1.5 853-862
10. October 22, 1985 2.2 3.7 1.5 854-863
11. January 27, 1986 2.2 3.0 .8 861-864
12. April 21, 1986 2.7 2.8 .1 862-871
13. July 28, 1986 3.0 1.9 -1.1 863-872
14. October 25, l987 3.0 2.1 -.9 864-873
15. January 25, 1987 3.2 2.4 -.8 871-874
16. May 4, 1987 3.0 2.7 -.3 872-881
17. July 30, 1987 3.3 3.7 .4 873-882
18. October 31, 1987 3.8 3.3 -.5 874-883
19. January 30, 1988 3.7 3.8 .1 881-884
20. April 28, 1988 4.1 3.5 -.6 882-891
21. July 29, 1988 4.0 4.1 .1 883-892
22. October 28, 1988 3.6 3.9 .3 884-893
23. January 31, 1989 3.6 3.8 .2 891-894
24. April 27, 1989 3.6 4.5 .9 892-901
25. July 30, 1989 3.8 4.5 .7 893-902
26. October 29, 1989 4.0 3.9 -.1 894-903
27. January 31, 1990 4.2 3.9 -.3 901-904
28. May 1, 1990 4.2 4.5 .3 902-911
29. July 31, 1990 3.8 2.7 -1.1 903-912
30. November 2, 1990 3.4 3.6 .2 904-913
31. January 30, 1991 3.1 3.7 .6 911-914
32. April 29, 1991 2.7 2.6 -.1 912-921
33. July 27, 1991 2.5 4.0 1.5 913-922
34. October 30, 1991 2.2 3.0 .8 914-923
35. February 2, 1992 2.3 2.9 .6 921-924
36. April 30, 1992 2.4 3.0 .6 922-931
37 August 5, 1992 2.3 2.2 -.1 923-932
38. November 6, 1992 2.5 1.7 -.8 924-933
39. January 31, 1993 2.4 2.0 -.4 931-934
40. May 1, 1993 2.1 2.0 -.1 932-941
41. September 5, 1993 2.0 2.5 .5 933-942
42. November 1, 1993 2.2 2.0 -.2 934-943
43. February 2, 1994 2.1 1.8 -.3 941-944
44. May 2, 1994 2.3 1.8 -.5 942-951
45. August 2, 1994 2.2 2.1 -.1 943-952
46. November 1, 1994 2.1 2.3 .2 944-953
47. January 30, 1995 2.1 2.0 -.1 951-954
48. April 29, 1995 2.0 2.5 .5 952-961
49. July 29, 1995 1.9 2.3 .4 953-962
50. October 28, 1995 2.0 2.4 .4 954-963
51. February 19, 1996 1.9 1.8 -.1 961-964
52. May 3, 1996 2.0 1.9 -.1 962-971
53. August 2, 1996 2.0 1.9 -.1 963-972
54. November 1, 1996 1.9 1.7 -.2 964-973
55. February 1, 1997 1.8 1.7 -.1 971-974
56. May 9, 1997 1.4 1.6 .2 972-981
57. August 4, 1997 1.2 1.5 .3 973-982
58. November 11, 1997 1.2 1.6 .4 974-983
59. January 30, 1998 1.1 1.5 .4 981-984
60. April 30, 1998 1.3 1.4 .1 982-991
61. July 31, 1998 1.4 1.7 .3 983-992
62. November 3, 1998 1.4 1.5 .1 984-993
63. January 30, 1999 1.5 1.5 .0 991-994
64. May 1, 1999 2.0 1.6 -.4 992-001
65. July 30, 1999 2.2 2.0 -.2 993-002
66. November 5, 1999 2.4 2.8 .4 994-003
67. January 29, 2000 2.4 3.2 .8 001-004
68. April 28, 2000 2.3 3.6 1.3 002-011
69. July 31, 2000 2.3 3.2 .9 003-012
Mean Absolute Error 0.57
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