The Forecasting Record of the US Model: July 30, 1999

Data revisions make it difficult to compare forecasted and actual values. Should the forecasted values be compared to the first release of the data, the second release, the first major revision release, the last major revision release, etc.? How should one treat conceptual changes? Since the first US model forecast analyzed here (September 23, 1983), there have been many revisions of the data in the national income and product accounts and two major conceptual changes. The first major conceptual change was the shift in focus from GNP to GDP, and the second was moving to a chain-type measure of real GDP.

Regarding GNP versus GDP, the model treats the difference between the two as exogenous, and for forecasting purposes the difference is taken to be roughly unchanged over time. This means that the forecasted growth rates of GNP and GDP are essentially the same. One can thus look at the past forecasts of GNP growth rates (before the shift in focus) as also forecasts of GDP growth rates, and they can thus be compared to the actual GDP growth rates. This is what is done in the following tables. The actual values for all quarters are taken to be the actual GDP growth rates, but the forecast values before the change in focus are taken to be GNP growth rates. The same is true for the price index: the actual values are taken to be the actual growth rates of the GDP price index.

Regarding the move to a chain-type measure, the following tables use the new measure. In other words, the model is being judged on how well it forecasted the current estimates of the actual values based on the chain-type measure. If one thinks of these actual values as being the best current estimates of what actually happened, then the model is being judged on how it predicted what actually happened. This seems to be an interesting comparison, although there is clearly no right or wrong choice. Other choices could be made.

Tables 1 through 5 present the forecasting record of the model for real GDP, the GDP price index, and the unemployment rate. The tables are fairly self explanatory, and only Tables 4 and 5 will be discussed here. Tables 4 and 5 show how well the model forecasts one year ahead. Table 4 presents for each forecast the actual and predicted values of the growth rate of real GDP four quarters ahead, that is, the growth rate of real GDP over the first four quarters from the beginning of the forecast period. The results are as follows.

The model did extremely well in predicting the strong growth in the last half of 1983 and in 1984 and 1985. For example, the growth rate in the 1983:3-1984:2 period was 7.8 percent, and the model predicted 7.4 percent. The model overpredicted the period around 1986 (forecasts 10-13), although only for forecast 12 is the error larger than 2 percentage points. It was then reasonably accurate until the recession of 1990-1991, which it missed. As is well known, the recession of 1990-1991 was hard to predict, and the model certainly did not predict it. The model did well in predicting the size of the recovery from the recession (forecasts 32-35). Forecasts 36-39 overpredicted the growth rate by about one percentage point, forecast 40 was quite accurate, and forecasts 41 and 42 underpredicted the growth rate by about one percentage point. Forecasts 43-48 were quite accurate, but for forecasts 49 (July 29, 1995) through 57 (August 4, 1997) the growth rate was underpredicted by about 1.4 percentage points on average. Forecast 58 (November 11, 1997) underpredicted by only .6 percentage points, but forecast 59 (January 30, 1998) underpredicted by 1.7 percentage points, forecast 60 (April 30, 1998) underpredicted 1.5 percentage points, and forecast 61 (July 31, 1998) underpredicted by 2.1 percentage points. The mean absolute error for the 61 forecasts in Table 4 is 1.07 percentage points.

Table 5 is the same as Table 4 except that it is for the growth rate of the GDP price index. The mean absolute error for the inflation forecasts is only 0.59 percentage points, and the largest error in absolute value for any of the forecasts is only 1.6 percentage points. Not since forecast 38 has an error been larger than .9 percentage points in absolute value. The inflation forecasts are thus overall quite good.

Forecasting Record Tables: May 1, 1999

Table 1: Predicted and Actual Values for Real Growth
Table 2: Predicted and Actual Values for Inflation
Table 3: Predicted and Actual Values for the Unemployment Rate
Table 4: Predicted and Actual Values for Four-Quarter Real Growth
Table 5: Predicted and Actual Values for Four-Quarter Inflation

Table 1: Predicted and Actual Values for Real Growth

                                       Table 1
                    Predicted and Actual Values of the Growth Rate of Real GDP

                   833  834  841  842  843  844  851  852  853  854  861  862  863  864 

Actual: 7.4 7.7 9.6 6.4 2.9 2.6 4.2 2.0 5.9 2.6 5.1 0.4 2.2 2.2 Forecast Dated: 1. Sept.23, 1983 8.2 7.5 7.0 6.8 7.0 6.5 5.9 5.3 4.5 3.9 3.4 3.1 2.9 2.9 2. Dec. 3, 1983 7.1 6.3 5.8 5.4 4.8 4.4 3.9 3.4 3.0 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.4 3. Jan. 28, 1984 5.8 6.6 6.3 5.9 5.3 4.6 3.9 3.2 2.7 2.5 2.3 2.3 4. April 24, 1984 5.6 4.7 4.4 4.0 3.7 3.4 3.0 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 5. July 26, 1984 6.0 5.2 4.3 3.7 3.0 2.5 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.1 6. Oct. 24, 1984 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.1 2.9 2.7 2.5 7. Jan. 24, 1985 5.1 4.8 4.6 3.9 3.3 2.7 2.3 2.1 8. April 20, 1985 4.3 3.7 4.0 3.7 3.2 2.7 2.4 9. July 22, 1985 4.2 4.5 3.9 3.9 3.4 3.0 10. Oct. 22, 1985 4.4 4.4 4.3 3.6 3.0 11. Jan. 27, 1986 4.2 4.1 3.3 2.7 12. April 21, 1986 4.9 4.2 3.6 13. July 28, 1986 4.7 4.3 14. Oct. 25, 1986 4.2
Table 1 (continued) Predicted and Actual Values of the Growth Rate of Real GDP 862 863 864 871 872 873 874 881 882 883 884
Actual: 0.4 2.2 2.2 2.6 4.1 3.6 6.0 2.4 4.1 2.4 5.1 Forecast Dated: 12. April 21, 1986 4.9 4.2 3.6 3.6 3.4 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 13. July 28, 1986 4.7 4.3 4.4 3.8 4.2 3.9 3.6 3.3 3.1 3.0 14. October 25, 1986 4.2 3.4 3.4 4.2 4.1 3.8 3.8 3.2 3.0 15. January 25, 1987 3.0 3.7 3.2 4.2 4.1 3.9 3.5 3.2 16. May 4, 1987 2.6 4.1 3.1 3.3 3.7 3.6 3.5 17. July 30, 1987 2.7 3.2 3.1 4.0 4.1 3.9 18. October 31, l987 3.1 2.2 2.7 2.8 3.1 19. January 30, 1988 2.4 3.0 2.9 3.4 20. April 28, 1988 2.9 3.0 3.3 21. July 29, 1988 3.3 3.7 22. October 28, 1988 3.6
Table 1 (continued) Predicted and Actual Values of the Growth Rate of Real GDP 882 883 884 891 892 893 894 901 902 903 904
Actual: 4.1 2.4 5.1 4.0 3.0 2.2 0.4 3.9 1.2 -1.9 -4.0 Forecast Dated: 20. April 28, 1988 2.9 3.0 3.3 3.4 3.2 2.9 2.7 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.7 21. July 29, 1988 3.3 3.7 3.5 3.1 2.8 2.4 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.4 22. October 28, 1988 3.6 3.9 3.6 3.2 2.9 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.7 23. January 31, 1989 4.7 3.2 3.2 3.1 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.6 24. April 27, 1989 2.8 3.2 3.2 2.9 2.6 2.4 2.2 25. July 30, 1989 1.9 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.7 2.5 26. October 29, 1989 2.7 3.0 2.9 2.6 2.7 27. January 31, 1990 1.8 2.3 2.8 2.8 28. May 1, 1990 2.4 3.1 3.0 29. July 31, 1990 0.9 1.9 30. November 2, 1990 0.3
Table 1 (continued) Predicted and Actual Values of the Growth Rate of Real GDP 902 903 904 911 912 913 914 921 922 923 924
Actual: 1.2 -1.9 -4.0 -2.1 1.8 1.0 1.0 4.7 2.5 3.0 4.3 Forecast Dated: 28. May 1, 1990 2.4 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.7 2.5 2.3 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 29. July 31, 1990 0.9 1.9 2.5 2.8 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.9 30. November 2, 1990 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.3 1.7 2.3 2.7 2.9 3.0 31. January 30,1991 2.6 2.3 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.8 2.9 2.9 32. April 29, 1991 1.3 1.8 3.1 3.8 4.0 4.0 3.8 33. July 27, 1991 0.9 2.6 3.4 3.6 3.6 3.4 34. October 30, 1991 1.9 3.1 3.9 3.5 3.4 35. February 2, 1992 2.2 3.2 3.4 4.2 36. April 30, 1992 4.4 4.0 4.6 37. August 5, 1992 2.4 3.3 38. November 6, 1992 2.5
Table 1 (continued) Predicted and Actual Values of the Growth Rate of Real GDP 922 923 924 931 932 933 934 941 942 943 944
Actual: 2.5 3.0 4.3 0.1 2.0 2.1 5.3 3.0 4.7 1.8 3.6 Forecast Dated: 36. April 30, 1992 4.4 4.0 4.6 4.8 3.9 3.2 2.8 2.3 2.0 2.3 2.4 37. August 5, 1992 2.4 3.3 4.0 4.1 3.8 3.4 2.9 2.5 2.6 2.6 38. November 6, 1992 2.5 3.3 3.5 3.8 3.6 3.3 2.9 2.6 2.3 39. January 31, 1993 4.1 2.5 2.7 3.2 3.1 3.1 2.9 2.7 40. May 1, 1993 2.1 2.4 3.1 3.5 3.6 3.5 3.2 41. September 5, 1993 2.8 2.8 2.4 2.1 2.1 2.2 42. November 1, 1993 3.0 3.2 3.0 2.6 2.4 43. February 2, 1994 3.9 3.3 2.8 2.5 44. May 2, 1994 2.8 2.6 2.8 45. August 2, 1994 1.2 2.1 46. November 1, 1994 1.2
Table 1 (continued) Predicted and Actual Values of the Growth Rate of Real GDP 942 943 944 951 952 953 954 961 962 963 964
Actual: 4.7 1.8 3.6 1.7 0.4 3.3 2.8 3.3 6.1 2.1 4.2 Forecast Dated: 44. May 2, 1994 2.8 2.6 2.8 2.6 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.2 45. August 2, 1994 1.2 2.1 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.1 46. November 1, 1994 1.2 2.5 2.3 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 47. January 30, 1995 1.2 1.6 2.3 2.6 2.8 2.9 2.9 2.9 48. April 29, 1995 2.1 2.5 2.9 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.4 49. July 29, 1995 2.4 2.5 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.5 50. October 28, 1995 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.3 2.2 51. February 29, 1996 2.7 2.8 2.3 2.3 52. May 3, 1996 3.7 2.6 2.3 53. August 2, 1996 2.9 2.2
Table 1 (continued) Predicted and Actual Values of the Growth Rate of Real GDP 962 963 964 971 972 973 974 981 982 983 984
Actual: 6.1 2.1 4.2 4.2 4.0 4.2 3.0 5.5 1.8 3.7 6.0 Forecast Dated: 52. May 3, 1996 3.7 2.6 2.3 2.2 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.4 53. August 2, 1996 2.9 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.6 54. November 1, 1996 1.9 2.5 2.8 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.5 55. February 1, 1997 3.0 2.5 2.3 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.4 56. May 9, 1997 3.7 2.7 2.4 2.0 1.8 1.9 2.0 57. August 4, 1997 1.1 2.2 2.5 2.3 2.2 2.2 58. November 11, 1997 3.5 3.3 2.6 2.3 2.1 59. January 30, 1998 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.2 60. April 30, 1998 2.2 3.0 2.8 61. July 31, 1998 2.3 2.5
Table 1 (continued) Predicted and Actual Values of the Growth Rate of Real GDP 982 983 984 991 992 993 994 001 002 003 004
Actual: 1.8 3.7 6.0 4.3 2.3 Forecast Dated: 60. April 30, 1998 2.2 3.0 2.8 2.2 2.0 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.1 61. July 31, 1998 2.3 2.5 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.1 62. November 3, 1998 1.6 0.5 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.3 63. January 30, 1999 3.1 2.5 1.9 1.6 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.3 64. May 1, 1999 4.1 3.0 2.2 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.7 65. July 30, 1999 4.0 2.9 3.0 3.2 2.9 2.6
Table 2: Predicted and Actual Values for Inflation
	
                                        Table 2
         Predicted and Actual Values of the Growth Rate of the GDP Price Index
 
                    833  834  841  842  843  844  851  852  853  854  861  862  863  864   

Actual: 3.8 3.8 4.5 3.1 3.6 2.9 4.4 3.2 2.6 3.5 1.8 2.1 3.2 3.0 Forecast Dated: 1. Sept. 23, 1983 5.3 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.2 5.5 5.8 6.1 6.3 6.5 6.7 6.7 6.8 6.7 2. Dec. 3, 1983 4.4 4.8 5.1 5.3 5.6 5.9 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4 3. Jan. 28, 1984 4.2 4.5 4.9 5.2 5.6 5.8 6.1 6.3 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4 4. April 24, 1984 4.4 4.7 5.0 5.3 5.5 5.7 5.9 6.0 6.0 6.1 6.2 5. July 26, 1984 4.6 4.9 5.3 5.5 5.6 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.6 6. Oct. 24, 1984 4.1 4.3 4.4 4.6 4.7 4.9 5.0 5.1 5.2 7. Jan. 24, 1985 4.1 4.4 4.7 5.0 5.2 5.4 5.4 5.4 8. April 20, 1985 3.5 3.8 4.0 4.2 4.5 4.6 4.7 9. July 22, 1985 3.2 3.5 3.7 3.9 4.2 4.4 10. Oct. 22, 1985 3.9 3.6 3.6 3.8 3.9 11. Jan. 27, 1986 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.1 12. April 21, 1986 2.6 2.8 2.9 13. July 28, 1986 1.7 1.8 14. Oct. 25, 1986 2.4
Table 2 (continued) Predicted and Actual Values of the Growth Rate of the GDP Price Index 862 863 864 871 872 873 874 881 882 883 884
Actual: 2.1 3.2 3.0 3.2 2.9 3.1 3.8 2.7 4.3 5.2 3.7 Forecast Dated: 12. April 21, 1986 2.6 2.8 2.9 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.3 13. July 28, 1986 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.4 2.5 2.7 2.8 2.9 14. October 25, 1986 2.4 2.2 2.0 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.3 2.4 15. January 25, 1987 2.6 2.4 2.4 2.2 2.3 2.5 2.6 2.7 16. May 4, 1987 2.5 2.6 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.4 17. July 30, 1987 4.6 3.2 3.4 3.5 3.7 3.9 18. October 31, l987 2.7 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.8 19. January 30, 1988 3.6 3.7 3.9 4.0 20. April 28, 1988 3.2 3.4 3.6 21. July 29, 1988 4.1 3.9 22. October 28, 1988 3.6
Table 2 (continued) Predicted and Actual Values of the Growth Rate of the GDP Price Index 882 883 884 891 892 893 894 901 902 903 904
Actual: 4.3 5.2 3.7 4.7 4.3 3.3 3.4 5.0 5.2 4.2 4.2 Forecast Dated: 20. April 28, 1988 3.2 3.4 3.6 3.7 3.9 4.0 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 21. July 29, 1988 4.1 3.9 4.1 4.3 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.9 4.9 22. October 28, 1988 3.6 3.8 4.0 4.2 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.8 23. January 31, 1989 3.1 4.0 4.0 4.2 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.6 24. April 27, 1989 4.0 4.5 4.7 4.9 5.1 5.2 5.3 25. July 30, 1989 4.1 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.9 26. October 29, 1989 3.6 3.8 4.0 4.2 4.3 27. January 31, 1990 4.2 3.9 3.8 3.9 28. May 1, 1990 5.1 4.4 4.3 29. July 31, 1990 2.5 2.7 30. November 2, 1990 3.5
Table 2 (continued) Predicted and Actual Values of the Growth Rate of the GDP Price Index 902 903 904 911 912 913 914 921 922 923 924
Actual: 5.2 4.2 4.2 5.0 3.1 2.9 2.5 3.4 2.7 1.6 2.9 Forecast Dated: 28. May 1, 1990 5.1 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.4 4.5 29. July 31, 1990 2.5 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.1 3.3 3.4 3.6 3.7 3.9 30. November 2, 1990 3.5 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.1 31. January 30, 1991 3.3 3.7 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.3 32. April 29, 1991 2.2 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.1 3.3 33. July 27, 1991 3.9 4.0 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.3 34. October 30, 1991 2.9 2.9 3.1 3.3 3.5 35. February 2, 1992 3.1 2.8 2.9 3.0 36. April 30, 1992 3.0 2.9 2.9 37. August 5, 1992 2.0 2.1 38. November 6, 1992 1.5
Table 2 (continued) Predicted and Actual Values of the Growth Rate of the GDP Price Index 922 923 924 931 932 933 934 941 942 943 944
Actual: 2.7 1.6 2.9 3.8 2.0 1.9 2.7 2.5 2.2 2.6 2.7 Forecast Dated: 36. April 30, 1992 3.0 2.9 2.9 3.3 3.5 3.7 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.0 4.1 37. August 5, 1992 2.0 2.1 2.3 2.6 2.9 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6 38. November 6, 1992 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.4 2.5 2.7 2.8 39. January 31, 1993 1.3 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.6 2.8 3.0 3.2 40. May 1, 1993 1.8 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.7 2.9 41. September 5, 1993 2.4 2.4 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.7 42. November 1, 1993 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.4 43. February 2, 1994 1.6 1.6 1.9 2.2 44. May 2, 1994 1.6 1.8 2.0 45. August 2, 1994 2.3 2.1 46. November 1, 1994 2.6
Table 2 (continued) Predicted and Actual Values of the Growth Rate of the GDP Price Index 942 943 944 951 952 953 954 961 962 963 964
Actual: 2.2 2.6 2.7 2.5 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.3 1.2 1.8 1.8 Forecast Dated: 44. May 2, 1994 1.6 1.8 2.0 1.8 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.4 45. August 2, 1994 2.3 2.1 2.1 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 46. November 1, 1994 2.6 2.4 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.6 47. January 30, 1995 2.1 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 48. April 29, 1995 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.8 49. July 29, 1995 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.5 2.5 2.5 50. October 28, 1995 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.5 51. February 29, 1996 1.5 1.8 2.0 2.1 52. May 3, 1996 1.7 1.9 2.0 53. August 2, 1996 1.7 2.0
Table 2 (continued) Predicted and Actual Values of the Growth Rate of the GDP Price Index 962 963 964 971 972 973 974 981 982 983 984
Actual: 1.2 1.8 1.8 2.8 1.6 1.2 1.2 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.8 Forecast Dated: 52. May 3, 1996 1.7 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.5 53. August 2, 1996 1.7 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.4 54. November 1, 1996 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3 55. February 1, 1997 1.3 1.7 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.2 56. May 9, 1997 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.9 57. August 4, 1997 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 58. November 11, 1997 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 59. January 30, 1998 1.1 1.6 1.7 1.8 60. April 30, 1998 1.0 1.4 1.5 61. July 31, 1998 1.4 1.8
Table 2 (continued) Predicted and Actual Values of the Growth Rate of the GDP Price Index 982 983 984 991 992 993 994 001 002 003 004
Actual: 0.9 1.0 0.8 1.6 1.6 Forecast Dated: 60. April 30, 1998 1.0 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.0 61. July 31, 1998 1.4 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.9 62. November 3, 1998 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.7 63. January 30, 1999 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 64. May 1, 1999 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0 65. July 30, 1999 1.8 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.3
Table 3: Predicted and Actual Values for the Unemployment Rate
	
                                             Table 3
                       Predicted and Actual Values of the Unemployment Rate
 
                      833  834  841  842  843  844  851  852  853  854  861  862  863  864    

Actual: 9.4 8.5 7.9 7.5 7.5 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.2 7.1 7.0 7.2 7.0 6.8 Forecast Dated: 1. Sept. 23, 1983 9.6 9.3 9.1 9.0 8.8 8.6 8.4 8.3 8.1 8.0 7.8 7.7 7.6 7.5 2. Dec. 3, 1983 9.1 8.8 8.5 8.3 8.1 8.0 7.8 7.7 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.4 7.4 3. Jan. 22, 1984 8.4 8.3 8.2 8.0 7.8 7.7 7.6 7.5 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.4 4. April 24, 1984 7.9 7.9 7.9 7.9 7.9 7.8 7.7 7.8 7.8 7.8 7.8 5. July 26, 1984 7.6 7.7 7.6 7.6 7.6 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 6. Oct. 24, 1984 7.7 7.8 7.9 7.9 7.9 7.8 7.7 7.7 7.6 7. Jan. 25, 1985 7.1 7.0 6.8 6.7 6.6 6.6 6.5 6.5 8. April 20, 1985 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.2 7.1 7.1 7.1 9. July 22, 1985 7.3 7.2 7.0 6.9 6.8 6.7 10. Oct. 22, 1985 7.2 7.1 6.9 6.8 6.6 11. Jan. 27, 1986 6.9 6.7 6.6 6.6 12. April 21, 1986 6.8 6.6 6.4 13. July 28, 1986 7.3 7.3 14. Oct. 25, 1986 7.1
Table 3 (continued) Predicted and Actual Values of the Unemployment Rate 862 863 864 871 872 873 874 881 882 883 884
Actual: 7.2 7.0 6.8 6.6 6.3 6.0 5.9 5.7 5.5 5.5 5.4 Forecast Dated: 12. April 21, 1986 6.8 6.6 6.4 6.3 6.2 6.0 5.9 5.8 5.6 5.5 5.4 13. July 28, 1986 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.2 7.1 6.9 6.8 6.6 6.5 6.3 14. October 25, 1986 7.1 7.2 7.3 7.4 7.4 7.3 7.2 7.1 7.0 15. January 25, 1987 6.9 6.9 7.0 7.0 7.0 6.9 6.8 6.7 16. May 4, 1987 6.5 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.2 6.1 6.1 17. July 30, 1987 6.1 6.0 6.0 5.8 5.7 5.5 18. October 31, 1987 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 5.9 19. January 30, 1988 5.8 5.7 5.5 5.4 20. April 28, 1988 5.5 5.3 5.0 21. July 29, 1988 5.3 5.1 22. October 28, 1988 5.2
Table 3 (continued) Predicted and Actual Values of the Unemployment Rate 882 883 884 891 892 893 894 901 902 903 904
Actual: 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.2 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.3 5.3 5.7 6.1 Forecast Dated: 20. April 28, 1988 5.5 5.3 5.0 4.8 4.7 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.2 21. July 29, 1988 5.3 5.1 4.9 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.8 4.8 22. October 28, 1988 5.2 4.9 4.7 4.5 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.1 23. January 31, 1989 5.0 4.7 4.6 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.2 24. April 27, 1989 4.9 4.7 4.5 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.2 25. July 30, 1989 5.2 5.0 4.8 4.7 4.5 4.5 26. October 29, 1989 5.0 4.8 4.6 4.5 4.4 27. January 31, 1990 5.2 5.1 5.0 4.8 28. May 1, 1990 5.0 4.8 4.6 29. July 31, 1990 5.4 5.3 30. November 2, 1990 5.6
Table 3 (continued) Predicted and Actual Values of the Unemployment Rate 902 903 904 911 912 913 914 921 922 923 924
Actual: 5.3 5.7 6.1 6.6 6.8 6.9 7.1 7.4 7.6 7.6 7.4 Forecast Dated: 28. May 1, 1990 5.0 4.8 4.6 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.6 29. July 31, 1990 5.4 5.3 5.1 5.0 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.6 30. November 2, 1990 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.3 5.2 5.1 5.0 4.9 31. January 31, 1991 6.1 6.1 6.0 5.9 5.8 5.7 5.6 5.5 32. April 29, 1991 6.8 6.9 6.7 6.5 6.2 6.0 5.8 33. July 27, 1991 7.0 7.0 6.8 6.5 6.3 6.1 34. October 30, 1991 6.8 6.6 6.4 6.2 6.0 35. February 2, 1992 6.9 6.8 6.7 6.5 36. April 30, 1992 7.0 6.8 6.5 37. August 5, 1992 7.2 6.8 38. November 6, 1992 7.3
Table 3 (continued) Predicted and Actual Values of the Unemployment Rate 922 923 924 931 932 933 934 941 942 943 944
Actual: 7.6 7.6 7.4 7.2 7.1 6.8 6.6 6.6 6.2 6.0 5.6 Forecast Dated: 36. April 30, 1992 7.0 6.8 6.5 6.2 5.9 5.8 5.7 5.6 5.7 5.7 5.7 37. August 5, 1992 7.2 6.8 6.4 6.0 5.6 5.3 5.1 4.9 4.9 4.8 38. November 6, 1992 7.3 7.0 6.6 6.2 5.8 5.5 5.3 5.1 5.0 39. January 31, 1993 7.1 6.8 6.7 6.5 6.4 6.3 6.3 6.3 40. May 1, 1993 6.8 6.6 6.5 6.4 6.2 6.1 6.0 41. September 5, 1993 6.7 6.5 6.3 6.2 6.0 6.0 42. November 1, 1993 6.5 6.3 6.0 5.9 5.7 43. February 2, 1994 6.2 5.8 5.6 5.5 44. May 2, 1994 6.3 6.2 6.0 45. August 2, 1994 5.9 5.8 46. November 1, 1994 5.9
Table 3 (continued) Predicted and Actual Values of the Unemployment Rate 942 943 944 951 952 953 954 961 962 963 964
Actual: 6.2 6.0 5.6 5.5 5.7 5.7 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.3 5.3 Forecast Dated: 44. May 2, 1994 6.3 6.2 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.1 6.2 6.2 45. August 2, 1994 5.9 5.8 5.7 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.6 46. November 1, 1994 5.9 5.7 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.7 47. January 30, 1995 5.4 5.3 5.3 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 48. April 29, 1995 5.3 5.1 5.0 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.8 49. July 29, 1995 5.7 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 50. October 28, 1995 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.4 51. February 29, 1996 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 52. May 3, 1996 5.5 5.5 5.5 53. August 2, 1996 5.3 5.3
Table 3 (continued) Predicted and Actual Values of the Unemployment Rate 962 963 964 971 972 973 974 981 982 983 984
Actual: 5.5 5.3 5.3 5.2 5.0 4.9 4.7 4.6 4.4 4.5 4.4 Forecast Dated: 52. May 3, 1996 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.6 5.6 5.7 5.7 5.8 5.8 5.9 53. August 2, 1996 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.7 5.7 5.8 5.9 5.9 54. November 1, 1996 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.5 55. February 1, 1997 5.2 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.2 5.2 5.2 56. May 9, 1997 5.0 4.9 4.8 4.7 4.8 4.8 4.9 57. August 4, 1997 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 58. November 11, 1997 4.7 4.5 4.3 4.2 4.2 59. January 30, 1998 4.6 4.4 4.3 4.2 60. April 30, 1998 4.6 4.5 4.4 61. July 31, 1998 4.3 4.1 Table 3 (continued) Predicted and Actual Values of the Unemployment Rate 982 983 984 991 992 993 994 001 002 003 004
Actual: 4.4 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.3 Forecast Dated: 60. April 30, 1998 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.8 61. July 31, 1998 4.3 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7 62. November 3, 1998 4.4 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.8 4.9 63. January 30, 1999 4.3 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.3 64. May 1, 1999 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.1 4.1 65. July 30, 1999 4.1 4.1 4.0 3.9 3.9 3.9
Table 4: Predicted and Actual Values for Four-Quarter Real Growth
				
                           Table 4
    Predicted and Actual Values of the Growth Rate of Real GDP
        Over the First Four Quarters of the Forecast Period
 
                              Act.    Pred.  Pred.-Act.   Period  

1. September 23, 1983 7.8 7.4 -.4 833-842 2. December 3, 1983 6.6 6.1 -.5 834-843 3. January 28, 1984 5.4 6.0 .6 841-844 4. April 24, 1984 4.0 4.7 .7 842-851 5. July 26, 1984 2.9 4.8 1.9 843-852 6. October 24, 1984 3.7 3.2 -.5 844-853 7. January 24, 1985 3.6 4.6 1.0 851-854 8. April 20, 1985 3.9 3.9 .0 852-861 9. July 22, 1985 3.5 4.1 .6 853-862 10. October 22, 1985 2.6 4.2 1.6 854-863 11. January 27, 1986 2.5 3.6 1.1 861-864 12. April 21, 1986 1.8 4.1 2.3 862-871 13. July 28, 1986 2.8 4.3 1.5 863-872 14. October 25, 1986 3.1 3.8 .7 864-873 15. January 25, 1987 4.0 3.5 -.5 871-874 16. May 4, 1987 4.0 3.3 -.7 872-881 17. July 30, 1987 4.0 3.2 -.8 873-882 18. October 31, 1987 3.7 2.7 -1.0 874-883 19. January 30, 1988 3.5 2.9 -.6 881-884 20. April 28, 1988 3.9 3.1 -.8 882-891 21. July 29, 1988 3.6 3.4 -.2 883-892 22. October 28, 1988 3.6 3.6 .0 884-893 23. January 31, 1989 2.4 3.5 1.1 891-894 24. April 27, 1989 2.4 3.0 .6 892-901 25. July 30, 1989 1.9 2.5 .6 893-902 26. October 29, 1989 0.9 2.8 1.9 894-903 27. January 31, 1990 -0.2 2.4 2.6 901-904 28. May 1, 1990 -1.7 2.8 4.5 902-911 29. July 31, 1990 -1.6 2.0 3.6 903-912 30. November 2, 1990 -0.8 .8 1.6 904-913 31. January 30, 1991 0.4 2.5 2.1 911-914 32. April 29, 1991 2.1 2.5 .4 912-921 33. July 27, 1991 2.3 2.6 .3 913-922 34. October 30, 1991 2.8 3.1 .3 914-923 35. February 2, 1992 3.6 3.2 -.4 921-924 36. April 30, 1992 2.4 4.4 2.0 922-931 37. August 5, 1992 2.3 3.4 1.1 923-932 38. November 6, 1992 2.1 3.3 1.2 924-933 39. January 31, 1993 2.4 3.1 .7 931-934 40. May 1, 1993 3.1 2.8 -.3 932-941 41. September 5, 1993 3.8 2.5 -1.3 933-942 42. November 1, 1993 3.7 2.9 -.8 934-943 43. February 2, 1994 3.3 3.1 -.2 941-944 44. May 2, 1994 2.7 2.7 .0 942-951 45. August 2, 1994 1.6 2.1 .5 943-952 46. November 1, 1994 1.9 2.0 .1 944-953 47. January 30, 1995 2.0 1.9 -.1 951-954 48. April 29, 1995 2.4 2.5 .1 952-961 49. July 29, 1995 3.9 2.4 -1.5 953-962 50. October 28, 1995 3.6 2.4 -1.2 954-963 51. February 29, 1996 3.9 2.5 -1.4 961-964 52. May 3, 1996 4.1 2.7 -1.4 962-971 53. August 2, 1996 3.6 2.3 -1.3 963-972 54. November 1, 1996 4.1 2.4 -1.7 964-973 55. February 1, 1997 3.8 2.5 -1.3 971-974 56. May 9, 1997 4.2 2.7 -1.5 972-981 57. August 4, 1997 3.6 2.0 -1.6 973-982 58. November 11, 1997 3.5 2.9 -.6 974-983 59. January 30, 1998 4.2 2.5 -1.7 981-984 60. April 30, 1998 4.0 2.5 -1.5 982-991 61. July 31, 1998 4.1 2.0 -2.1 983-992
Mean Absolute Error 1.07
Table 5: Predicted and Actual Values for Four-Quarter Inflation
                            Table 5
 Predicted and Actual Values of the Growth Rate of the GDP Price
    Index Over the First Four Quarters of the Forecast Period
 
                              Act.    Pred.  Pred.-Act.   Period  

1. September 23, 1983 3.8 5.1 1.3 833-842 2. December 3, 1983 3.8 4.9 1.1 834-843 3. January 28, 1984 3.5 4.7 1.2 841-844 4. April 24, 1984 3.5 4.8 1.3 842-851 5. July 26, 1984 3.5 5.1 1.6 843-852 6. October 24, 1984 3.3 4.3 1.0 844-853 7. January 24, 1985 3.4 4.5 1.1 851-854 8. April 20, 1985 2.8 3.9 1.1 852-861 9. July 22, 1985 2.5 3.6 1.1 853-862 10. October 22, 1985 2.6 3.7 1.1 854-863 11. January 27, 1986 2.5 3.0 .5 861-864 12. April 21, 1986 2.9 2.8 -.1 862-871 13. July 28, 1986 3.1 1.9 -1.2 863-872 14. October 25, l987 3.1 2.1 -1.0 864-873 15. January 25, 1987 3.2 2.4 -.8 871-874 16. May 4, 1987 3.1 2.7 -.4 872-881 17. July 30, 1987 3.5 3.7 .2 873-882 18. October 31, 1987 4.0 3.3 -.7 874-883 19. January 30, 1988 4.0 3.8 -.2 881-884 20. April 28, 1988 4.5 3.5 -1.0 882-891 21. July 29, 1988 4.5 4.1 -.4 883-892 22. October 28, 1988 4.0 3.9 -.1 884-893 23. January 31, 1989 3.9 3.8 -.1 891-894 24. April 27, 1989 4.0 4.5 .5 892-901 25. July 30, 1989 4.2 4.5 .3 893-902 26. October 29, 1989 4.5 3.9 -.6 894-903 27. January 31, 1990 4.7 3.9 -.8 901-904 28. May 1, 1990 4.6 4.5 -.1 902-911 29. July 31, 1990 4.1 2.7 -1.4 903-912 30. November 2, 1990 3.8 3.6 -.2 904-913 31. January 30, 1991 3.4 3.7 .3 911-914 32. April 29, 1991 3.0 2.6 -.4 912-921 33. July 27, 1991 2.9 4.0 1.1 913-922 34. October 30, 1991 2.5 3.0 .5 914-923 35. February 2, 1992 2.6 2.9 .3 921-924 36. April 30, 1992 2.7 3.0 .3 922-931 37 August 5, 1992 2.6 2.2 -.4 923-932 38. November 6, 1992 2.7 1.7 -1.0 924-933 39. January 31, 1993 2.6 2.0 -.6 931-934 40. May 1, 1993 2.3 2.0 -.3 932-941 41. September 5, 1993 2.3 2.5 .2 933-942 42. November 1, 1993 2.5 2.0 -.5 934-943 43. February 2, 1994 2.5 1.8 -.7 941-944 44. May 2, 1994 2.7 1.8 -.9 942-951 45. August 2, 1994 2.6 2.1 -.5 943-952 46. November 1, 1994 2.5 2.3 -.2 944-953 47. January 30, 1995 2.0 2.0 .0 951-954 48. April 29, 1995 2.0 2.5 .5 952-961 49. July 29, 1995 1.8 2.3 .5 953-962 50. October 28, 1995 1.8 2.4 .6 954-963 51. February 19, 1996 1.8 1.8 .0 961-964 52. May 3, 1996 1.9 1.9 .0 962-971 53. August 2, 1996 2.0 1.9 -.1 963-972 54. November 1, 1996 1.8 1.7 -.1 964-973 55. February 1, 1997 1.7 1.7 .0 971-974 56. May 9, 1997 1.2 1.6 .4 972-981 57. August 4, 1997 1.0 1.5 .5 973-982 58. November 11, 1997 1.0 1.6 .6 974-983 59. January 30, 1998 0.9 1.5 .6 981-984 60. April 30, 1998 1.0 1.4 .4 982-991 61. July 31, 1998 1.2 1.7 .5 983-992
Mean Absolute Error 0.59