Chapter 5 Tables: November 1, 1996
Equation 1
Equation 2
Equation 3
Equation 4
Equation 5
Equation 6
Equation 7
Equation 8
Equation 9
Equation 10
Equation 11
Equation 12
Equation 13
Equation 14
Equation 15
Equation 16
Equation 17
Equation 18
Equation 20
Equation 21
Equation 22
Equation 23
Equation 24
Equation 25
Equation 26
Equation 27
Equation 28
Equation 30
Table 5.1: Equation 1
			    Table 5.1
                           Equation  1
                    LHS Variable is  log(CS/POP)             

		Equation                          Chi Square Tests

RHS Variable                Est.  t-stat.  Test             ChiSq  df  p-val

cnst                       0.0881   2.36  Lags               8.47  3  0.0373
AG1                       -0.2506  -3.46  RHO=4              2.87  4  0.5791
AG2                        0.3032   1.32  T                 18.89  1  0.0000
AG3                        0.2131   1.13  Leads +1          14.85  1  0.0001
log(CS/POP){-1}            0.9355  29.35  Leads +4          30.15  4  0.0000
log[YD/(POP*PH)]           0.0704   2.26  Leads +8          34.63  2  0.0000
RSA                       -0.0010  -4.68  p4e                5.56  1  0.0184
                                          p8e                2.37  1  0.1239
                                          Other a           28.56  5  0.0000
                                          Spread             2.02  4  0.7326
SE    0.00406
R2      1.000
DW       1.87
Chi Square (AGE) =    14.33 (df =   3, p-value =   0.0025)
Stability Test:                                                             
    AP      T1    T2      lambda    Break                                   

18.58  1970.1  1979.4    2.53  1971.4

Estimation period is 1954.1-1996.3
alog(AA/POP)-1, log(WA/PH), log(PCS/PH), Z, log[YNL/(POP*PH)]
Table 5.2: Equation 2
			    Table 5.2
                           Equation  2
                    LHS Variable is  log(CN/POP)

		Equation                          Chi Square Tests

RHS Variable                Est.  t-stat.  Test             ChiSq  df  p-val

cnst                      -0.2071  -2.56  Lags              17.79  4  0.0014
AG1                       -0.2075  -2.07  RHO=4             29.82  4  0.0000
AG2                        0.7442   2.52  T                  0.10  1  0.7578
AG3                       -0.3492  -1.92  Leads +1          11.24  1  0.0008
log(CN/POP){-1}            0.6572  15.46  Leads +4          13.12  4  0.0107
Ch log(CN/POP){-1}         0.1977   3.14  Leads +8          14.35  2  0.0008
log(AA/POP){-1}            0.0418   4.12  p4e                1.35  1  0.2450
log[YD/(POP*PH)]           0.2148   7.16  p8e                0.07  1  0.7987
RMA                       -0.0012  -2.36  Other a            8.97  4  0.0620
                                          Spread            11.39  4  0.0226
SE    0.00569
R2      0.998
DW       1.89
Chi Square (AGE) =    40.89 (df =   3, p-value =   0.0000)
Stability Test:                                                             
    AP      T1    T2      lambda    Break                                   

19.93  1970.1  1979.4    2.53  1973.2

Estimation period is 1954.1-1996.3
alog(WA/PH), log(PCN/PH), Z, log[YNL/(POP*PH)]
Table 5.3: Equation 3
			    Table 5.3
                           Equation  3
                    LHS Variable is  CD/POP

		Equation                          Chi Square Tests          

RHS Variable                Est.  t-stat.  Test             ChiSq  df  p-val

cnst                      -0.4266  -1.79  Lags               6.17  3  0.1035
AG1                        0.5141   1.16  RHO=4             21.89  4  0.0002
AG2                        0.7241   0.65  T                 31.81  1  0.0000
AG3                       -1.1491  -2.53  Leads +1          27.68  1  0.0000
(CD/POP){-1}               0.7177  12.65  Leads +4          37.68  4  0.0000
(KD/POP){-1}              -0.0091  -1.48  Leads +8          31.20  2  0.0000
YD/(POP*PH)                0.1108   4.93  p4e*CDA            9.39  1  0.0022
RMA*CDA                   -0.0038  -1.88  p8e*CDA           10.59  1  0.0011
                                          Other a           28.59  5  0.0000
                                          Spread            15.36  4  0.0040
SE    0.01298
R2      0.994
DW       1.95
Chi Square (AGE) =    16.77 (df =   3, p-value =   0.0008)
Stability Test:                                                             
    AP      T1    T2      lambda    Break                                   

19.87  1970.1  1979.4    2.53  1979.1

Estimation period is 1954.1-1996.3
a(AA/POP)-1, WA/PH, PCD/PH, Z, YNL/(POP*PH)
Table 5.4: Equation 4
			    Table 5.4
                           Equation  4
                    LHS Variable is  IHH/POP

		Equation                          Chi Square Tests          
                                                                            
RHS Variable                Est.  t-stat.  Test             ChiSq  df  p-val

cnst                       2.2951   2.66  Lags               0.99  4  0.9119
(IHH/POP){-1}              0.5567  10.39  RHO=4              0.74  2  0.6913
(KH/POP){-1}              -0.0807  -5.29  T                  1.35  1  0.2461
(AA/POP){-1}               0.0023   2.94  Leads +1           2.37  1  0.1235
YD/(POP*PH)                0.0919   3.43  Leads +4           8.10  4  0.0881
RMA{-1}*IHHA              -0.0278  -5.33  Leads +8           2.37  2  0.3056
RHO1                       0.6507   7.86  p4e{-1}*IHHA       0.53  1  0.4676
RHO2                       0.3428   4.15  p8e{-1}*IHHA       2.18  1  0.1398
                                          Other a           12.91  4  0.0117
                                          Spread             1.25  4  0.8707
SE    0.00944
R2      0.959
DW       2.03
Chi Square (AGE) =     1.71 (df =   3, p-value =   0.6344)
Stability Test:                                                             
    AP      T1    T2      lambda    Break                                   

9.48  1970.1  1979.4    2.53  1976.1

Estimation period is 1954.1-1996.3
a(WA/PH)-1, (PIH/PH)-1, 'Z-1, [YNL/(POP*PH)]-1
Table 5.5: Equation 5
			    Table 5.5
                           Equation  5
                    LHS Variable is  log(L1/POP1)

		Equation                          Chi Square Tests          
                                                                            
RHS Variable                Est.  t-stat.  Test             ChiSq  df  p-val

cnst                      -0.0024  -2.22  Lags               1.55  3  0.6706
log(L1/POP1){-1}           0.8412  20.67  RHO=4             32.63  4  0.0000
log(WA/PH)                 0.0010   0.37  Leads +1           0.17  1  0.6796
Z                          0.0110   1.21  Leads +4           9.88  4  0.0424
T                         -0.0001  -3.45  Leads +8           3.91  2  0.1414
                                          logPH              0.93  1  0.3360
                                          Other a            2.40  2  0.3010
SE    0.00210
R2      0.986
DW       2.12
Stability Test:                                                             
    AP      T1    T2      lambda    Break

5.44  1970.1  1979.4    2.53  1970.2

Estimation period is 1954.1-1996.3
alog(AA/POP)-1, log(YNL-1/(POP-1*PH-1))
Table 5.6: Equation 6
			    Table 5.6
                           Equation  6
                    LHS Variable is  log(L2/POP2)

		Equation                          Chi Square Tests

RHS Variable                Est.  t-stat.  Test             ChiSq  df  p-val

cnst                      -0.0021  -0.82  Lags              11.35  3  0.0100
log(L2/POP2){-1}           0.9872 210.87  RHO=4              5.61  4  0.2303
log(WA/PH)                 0.0176   2.45  T                  0.68  1  0.4104
Z                          0.0354   1.44  Leads +1           2.18  1  0.1397
                                          Leads +4          12.22  4  0.0158
                                          Leads +8           0.19  2  0.9111
                                          logPH              5.47  1  0.0193
                                          Other a           13.92  2  0.0010
SE    0.00598
R2      0.999
DW       2.14
Stability Test:                                                             
    AP      T1    T2      lambda    Break                                   

11.90  1970.1  1979.4    2.53  1973.1

Estimation period is 1954.1-1996.3
alog(AA/POP)-1,log[YNL/(POP*PH)]-1
Table 5.7: Equation 7
			    Table 5.7
                           Equation  7
                    LHS Variable is  log(L3/POP3)

		Equation                          Chi Square Tests          

RHS Variable                Est.  t-stat.  Test             ChiSq  df  p-val

cnst                      -0.0079  -0.40  Lags               7.52  4  0.1108
log(L3/POP3){-1}           0.9054  26.77  RHO=4              7.18  4  0.1266
log(WA/PH)                 0.0350   3.21  Leads +1           3.17  1  0.0748
Z                          0.0588   2.13  Leads +4           9.71  4  0.0455
log(AA/POP){-1}           -0.0105  -1.38  Leads +8           5.88  2  0.0528
T                         -0.0002  -3.44  logPH              0.16  1  0.6868
                                          Other a            6.52  1  0.0107
SE    0.00552
R2      0.982
DW       1.91
Stability Test:                                                             
    AP      T1    T2      lambda    Break

6.48  1970.1  1979.4    2.53  1979.2

Estimation period is 1954.1-1996.3
alog[YNL/(POP*PH)]-1
Table 5.8: Equation 8
			    Table 5.8
                           Equation  8
                    LHS Variable is  log(LM/POP)

		Equation                          Chi Square Tests

RHS Variable                Est.  t-stat.  Test             ChiSq  df  p-val

cnst                      -0.2574  -2.74  Lags               7.26  3  0.0639
log(LM/POP){-1}            0.9230  35.73  RHO=4              3.51  4  0.4771
log(WA/PH)                 0.0402   1.12  T                  0.69  1  0.4065
Z                          1.1388   3.80  Leads +1           0.33  1  0.5675
                                          Leads +4           3.20  4  0.5246
                                          Leads +8           1.16  2  0.5606
                                          logPH              0.06  1  0.8069
                                          Other a           10.20  2  0.0061
SE    0.06839
R2      0.904
DW       1.96
Stability Test:                                                             
    AP      T1    T2      lambda    Break

5.94  1970.1  1979.4    2.53  1978.4

Estimation period is 1954.1-1996.3
alog(AA/POP)-1, log[YNL/(POP*PH)]-1
Table 5.9: Equation 9
			    Table 5.9
                           Equation  9
                    LHS Variable is  log[MH/(POP*PH)]

		Equation                          Chi Square Tests

RHS Variable                Est.  t-stat.  Test             ChiSq  df  p-val

cnst                       0.1089   4.33  log[MH/(POP*PH)    1.57  1  0.2105
log[MH{-1}/(POP{-1}*PH)]   0.8633  32.97  Lags               4.45  3  0.2173
log[YD/(POP*PH)]           0.0504   5.04  RHO=4             43.29  3  0.0000
RSA                       -0.0045  -4.07  T                  1.75  1  0.1860
RHO1                      -0.1993  -2.50
 
SE    0.02352
R2      0.920
DW       1.92
Chi Square (AGE) =    15.04 (df =   3, p-value =   0.0018)
Stability Test:                                                             
    AP      T1    T2      lambda    Break

13.19  1970.1  1979.4    2.53  1979.2

Estimation period is 1954.1-1996.3
Table 5.10: Equation 10
			    Table 5.10
                           Equation 10
                    LHS Variable is  logPF

		Equation                          Chi Square Tests

RHS Variable                Est.  t-stat.  Test             ChiSq  df  p-val

logPF{-1}                  0.9216 156.17  Level  form a      4.41  2  0.1104
log[WF*(1+D5G)]            0.0326   8.07  Lags               7.37  4  0.1177
cnst                       0.1211   7.35  RHO=4              5.84  3  0.1196
logPIM                     0.0321  12.21  T                  4.28  1  0.0385
log[((YS-Y)/YS){-1}+.04]  -0.0035  -2.70  Leads +1           2.00  1  0.1578
RHO1                       0.1979   2.69  Leads +4           8.93  4  0.0629
                                          Leads +8           8.05  2  0.0179
                                          UR{-1}            30.81  1  0.0000
                                          [(YS-Y)/YS]{-1}    8.53  1  0.0035
                                          Change form b     63.32  3  0.0000
SE    0.00394
R2      1.000
DW       1.95
Stability Test:                                                             
    AP      T1    T2      lambda    Break

19.28  1970.1  1979.4    2.53  1972.2

Estimation period is 1954.1-1996.3
alog[WF*(1+D5G)]-1 and logPIM-1 added to the equation.
blogPF-1, log[WF*(1+D5G)]-1, and logPIM-1 added to the 'equation with
Ch logPF on the left hand side and a constant, Ch log(WF(1+D5G)), Ch logPIM,
and log[((YS-Y)/YS)-1+.04] on the right hand side.
Table 5.11: Equation 11
			    Table 5.11
                           Equation 11
                        LHS Variable is  Y

		Equation                          Chi Square Tests

RHS Variable                Est.  t-stat.  Test             ChiSq  df  p-val

cnst                     120.6384   5.56  Lags               1.16  2  0.5608
Y{-1}                      0.3082   7.31  RHO=4              1.92  1  0.1662
X                          0.9108  20.24  T                  1.88  1  0.1704
V{-1}                     -0.3139  -8.27  Leads +1           7.34  1  0.0068
RHO1                       0.4494   5.79  Leads +8           8.79  2  0.0124
RHO2                       0.2119   2.63  Spread             9.47  4  0.0504
RHO3                       0.2675   3.61
 
SE    3.39882
R2      1.000
DW       2.03
Stability Test:                                                             
    AP      T1    T2      lambda    Break

14.34  1970.1  1979.4    2.53  1979.3

Estimation period is 1954.1-1996.3
Table 5.12: Equation 12
			   Table 5.12
                           Equation 12
                    LHS Variable is  Ch IKF

		Equation                          Chi Square Tests

RHS Variable                Est.  t-stat.  Test             ChiSq  df  p-val

(KK-KKMIN){-1}            -0.0060  -2.65  Lags              25.47  5  0.0001
IKF{-1}-DELK*KK{-1}       -0.0175  -1.41  RHO=4              7.88  4  0.0959
Ch Y                       0.0674   3.09  T                  2.29  1  0.1305
Ch Y{-1}                   0.0382   2.23  Leads +1           0.00  1  0.9788
Ch Y{-2}                   0.0232   1.40  Leads +4           1.59  4  0.8108
Ch Y{-3}                   0.0276   1.66  Leads +8           3.26  2  0.1962
Ch Y{-4}                   0.0215   1.32  cnst               0.02  1  0.8963
TXCR*IKFA                  0.0031   1.01  Spread             1.83  4  0.7666
RB'{-3}*IKFA              -0.0008  -1.32
 
SE    1.44141
R2      0.392
DW       2.00
Stability Test:                                                             
    AP      T1    T2      lambda    Break

1.58  1970.1  1979.4    2.53  1978.2

Estimation period is 1954.1-1996.3
Table 5.13: Equation 13
			   Table 5.13
                           Equation 13
                    LHS Variable is  Ch logJF

		Equation                          Chi Square Tests          

RHS Variable                Est.  t-stat.  Test             ChiSq  df  p-val

cnst                      -0.5102  -3.67  Lags              36.33  5  0.0000
DD772                     -0.0662  -0.25  RHO=4             16.09  4  0.0029
log(JF/JHMIN){-1}         -0.0821  -3.66  Leads +1           2.02  1  0.1558
DD772*log(JF/JHMIN){-1}   -0.0126  -0.29  Leads +4          16.09  4  0.0029
Ch logJF{-1}               0.4276   7.83  Leads +8           7.76  2  0.0207
DD772*Ch logJF{-1}        -0.0570  -0.51
T                          0.0001   3.54
DD772*T                   -0.0001  -2.06
Ch logY                    0.3231   9.63
 
SE    0.00318
R2      0.755
DW       2.03

Estimation period is 1954.1-1996.3
Table 5.14: Equation 14
			   Table 5.14
                           Equation 14
                    LHS Variable is  Ch logHF

		Equation                          Chi Square Tests
                                                                            
RHS Variable                Est.  t-stat.  Test             ChiSq  df  p-val

cnst                       0.5926   4.34  Lags               4.07  4  0.3967
DD772                      0.4368   3.20  RHO=4              5.89  3  0.1170
logHF{-1}                 -0.1861  -5.92  Leads +1           0.81  1  0.3670
log(JF/JHMIN){-1}         -0.0907  -4.74  Leads +4           3.16  4  0.5317
DD772*log(JF/JHMIN){-1}    0.0739   3.31  Leads +8           0.01  2  0.9949
T                         -0.0001  -4.93
DD772*T                    0.0001   4.11
Ch logY                    0.1675   6.68
RHO1                      -0.2016  -2.44
 
SE    0.00254
R2      0.469
DW       2.01

Estimation period is 1954.1-1996.3
Table 5.15: Equation 15
			   Table 5.15
                           Equation 15
                    LHS Variable is  logHO

		Equation                          Chi Square Tests

RHS Variable                Est.  t-stat.  Test             ChiSq  df  p-val

cnst                       3.9330  49.84  Lags               1.01  2  0.6019
HFF                        0.0200   8.44  RHO=4              2.75  3  0.4325
HFF{-1}                    0.0118   5.00  T                  5.05  1  0.0247
RHO1                       0.9513  34.48
 
SE    0.04607
R2      0.945
DW       1.84
Stability Test:                                                             
    AP      T1    T2      lambda    Break

4.17  1970.1  1979.4    2.67  1975.4

Estimation period is 1956.1-1996.3
Table 5.16: Equation 16
			   Table 5.16
                           Equation 16
                    LHS Variable is  logWF

		Equation                          Chi Square Tests

RHS Variable                Est.  t-stat.  Test             ChiSq  df  p-val

logWF{-1}                  0.7233   5.80  Real Wage Restr   13.64  4  0.0085
logPF                      0.3923   3.24  Lags               3.90  1  0.0482
logWF{-2}                  0.0461   0.52  RHO=4             19.90  3  0.0002
logWF{-3}                  0.0719   0.90  UR{-1}             0.03  1  0.8653
logWF{-4}                  0.1505   1.91
cnst                      -0.0797  -1.23
T                          0.0003   3.85
RHO1                       0.3832   2.54
logPF{-1}a                -0.1444   0.00
logPF{-2}a                -0.0461   0.00
logPF{-3}a                -0.0719   0.00
logPF{-4}a                -0.1505   0.00
 
SE    0.00648
R2      0.999
DW       1.95
Stability Test:                                                             
    AP      T1    T2      lambda    Break

16.23  1970.1  1979.4    2.53  1972.3

Estimation period is 1954.1-1996.3
aCoefficient constrained. See the discussion in the text.
bEquation estimated withno restrictions on the coefficients.
Table 5.17: Equation 17
			   Table 5.17
                           Equation 17
                    LHS Variable is  log(MF/PF)

		Equation                          Chi Square Tests

RHS Variable                Est.  t-stat.  Test             ChiSq  df  p-val

cnst                       0.1322   1.49  log(MF/PF){-1}     0.46  1  0.4967
log(MF{-1}/PF)             0.9568  41.11  Lags               8.26  3  0.0409
log(X-FA)                  0.0169   1.54  RHO=4             18.20  4  0.0011
RS*(1-D2G-D2S)            -0.0010  -0.47  T                  0.28  1  0.5981
 
SE    0.03253
R2      0.961
DW       2.38
Stability Test:                                                             
    AP      T1    T2      lambda    Break

4.86  1970.1  1979.4    2.53  1976.2

Estimation period is 1954.1-1996.3
Table 5.18: Equation 18
			   Table 5.18
                           Equation 18
                    LHS Variable is  log(DF/DF{-1})

		Equation                          Chi Square Tests
RHS Variable                Est.  t-stat.  Test             ChiSq  df  p-val

log[(PIEF-TFG-TFS)/DF]{-   0.0238  10.95  Restriction        8.30  1  0.0040
                                          Lags               3.32  2  0.1905
                                          RHO=4             14.69  4  0.0054
                                          T                  9.73  1  0.0018
                                          cnst               2.33  1  0.1271
SE    0.02290
R2      0.011
DW       1.77
Stability Test:                                                             
    AP      T1    T2      lambda    Break

6.68  1970.1  1979.4    2.53  1976.1

Estimation period is 1954.1-1996.3
Table 5.20: Equation 20
			   Table 5.20
                           Equation 20
                      LHS Variable is  IVA

		Equation                          Chi Square Tests

RHS Variable                Est.  t-stat.  Test             ChiSq  df  p-val

cnst                      -0.4545  -0.81  Lags               4.78  2  0.0917
(PX-PX{-1})*V{-1}         -0.3999  -5.22  RHO=4             16.21  3  0.0010
RHO1                       0.5673   8.52  T                  0.02  1  0.8934
 
SE    2.30395
R2      0.586
DW       2.04
Stability Test:                                                             
    AP      T1    T2      lambda    Break

2.47  1970.1  1979.4    2.53  1974.4

Estimation period is 1954.1-1996.3
Table 5.21: Equation 21
			   Table 5.21
                           Equation 21
                    LHS Variable is  log(CCF/CCF{-1})

		Equation                          Chi Square Tests
       
RHS Variable                Est.  t-stat.  Test             ChiSq  df  p-val

log[(PIK*IKF)/CCF{-1}]     0.0587  19.33  Restriction        9.13  1  0.0025
D811824                    0.0230   4.76  Lags               9.56  2  0.0084
D831834                    0.0259   3.89  RHO=4             13.03  4  0.0111
                                          T                  9.70  1  0.0018
                                          cnst               6.53  1  0.0106
SE    0.01330
R2      0.329
DW       1.80

Estimation period is 1954.1-1996.3
Table 5.22: Equation 22
			   Table 5.22
                           Equation 22
                    LHS Variable is  BO/BR

	Equation                          Chi Square Tests

RHS Variable                Est.  t-stat.  Test             ChiSq  df  p-val

cnst                       0.0026   0.77  Lags               7.00  3  0.0718
(BO/BR){-1}                0.3452   4.80  RHO=4             28.25  4  0.0000
RS                         0.0045   1.53  T                  2.45  1  0.1176
RD                        -0.0022  -0.82
 
SE    0.01977
R2      0.318
DW       2.07
Stability Test:                                                             
    AP      T1    T2      lambda    Break

7.82  1970.1  1979.4    2.53  1975.2

Estimation period is 1954.1-1996.3
Table 5.23: Equation 23
			   Table 5.23
                           Equation 23
                    LHS Variable is  RB-RS{-2}

		Equation                          Chi Square Tests

RHS Variable                Est.  t-stat.  Test             ChiSq  df  p-val

cnst                       0.2416   4.92  Restriction        1.02  1  0.3133
RB{-1}-RS{-2}              0.8859  41.77  Lags               1.95  2  0.3769
RS-RS{-2}                  0.3049   8.84  RHO=4             11.57  3  0.0090
RS{-1}-RS{-2}             -0.2321  -5.34  T                  4.51  1  0.0338
RHO1                       0.2446   3.13  Leads +1           0.03  1  0.8687
                                          Leads +4           4.84  4  0.3044
                                          p4e                2.17  1  0.1408
                                          p8e                2.23  1  0.1353
SE    0.26185
R2      0.959
DW       2.04
Stability Test:                                                             
    AP      T1    T2      lambda    Break

4.29  1970.1  1979.4    2.53  1979.4

Estimation period is 1954.1-1996.3
Table 5.24: Equation 24
			   Table 5.24
                           Equation 24
                    LHS Variable is  RM-RS{-2}

		Equation                          Chi Square Tests

RHS Variable                Est.  t-stat.  Test             ChiSq  df  p-val

cnst                       0.4560   5.72  Restriction        1.82  1  0.1777
RM{-1}-RS{-2}              0.8510  33.81  Lags               1.66  2  0.4365
RS-RS{-2}                  0.2795   5.93  RHO=4              2.21  4  0.6980
RS{-1}-RS{-2}             -0.0447  -0.68  T                  3.28  1  0.0701
                                          Leads +1           1.51  1  0.2189
                                          Leads +4          13.39  4  0.0095
                                          Leads +8           4.43  2  0.1092
                                          p4e                1.07  1  0.3018
                                          p8e                1.44  1  0.2302
SE    0.35970
R2      0.894
DW       1.93
Stability Test:                                                             
    AP      T1    T2      lambda    Break

4.67  1970.1  1979.4    2.53  1979.4

Estimation period is 1954.1-1996.3
Table 5.25: Equation 25
			   Table 5.25
                           Equation 25
                       LHS Variable is  CG

		Equation                          Chi Square Tests
          
RHS Variable                Est.  t-stat.  Test             ChiSq  df  p-val

cnst                      34.7075   4.61  Lags              15.26  3  0.0016
Ch RB                   -106.4572  -3.62  RHO=4             29.76  4  0.0000
Ch (CF-TFG-TFS)           -0.6945  -0.26  T                 15.64  1  0.0001
                                          Leads +1           1.33  2  0.5153
                                          Leads +4           8.89  8  0.3518
                                          Leads +8           7.10  4  0.1305
                                          Ch RS              0.49  1  0.4825
SE   97.51189
R2      0.167
DW       1.62
Stability Test:                                                             
    AP      T1    T2      lambda    Break

5.94  1970.1  1979.4    2.53  1979.1

Estimation period is 1954.1-1996.3
Table 5.26: Equation 26
			   Table 5.26
                           Equation 26
                LHS Variable is  log[CUR/(POP*PF)]

		Equation                          Chi Square Tests

RHS Variable                Est.  t-stat.  Test             ChiSq  df  p-val

cnst                      -0.0552  -8.14  log([CUR/(POP*P    8.14  1  0.0043
log[CUR{-1}/(POP{-1}*PF)   0.9540 108.87  Lags               9.58  3  0.0225
log[(X-FA)/POP]            0.0519   8.30  RHO=4             15.49  3  0.0014
RSA                       -0.0012  -2.63  T                  0.18  1  0.6735
RHO1                      -0.2771  -3.59
 
SE    0.01017
R2      0.995
DW       1.91
Stability Test:                                                             
    AP      T1    T2      lambda    Break

7.07  1970.1  1979.4    2.53  1977.3

Estimation period is 1954.1-1996.3
Table 5.27: Equation 27
			   Table 5.27
                           Equation 27
                    LHS Variable is  log(IM/POP)

		Equation                          Chi Square Tests

RHS Variable                Est.  t-stat.  Test             ChiSq  df  p-val

cnst                      -0.5985  -4.24  Lags               7.67  4  0.1045
log(IM/POP){-1}            0.8545  25.14  RHO=4             27.93  4  0.0000
log[YD/(POP*PH)]           0.3791   4.39  T                 18.02  1  0.0000
log(PF/PIM)                0.0479   2.18  Leads +1           0.23  1  0.6287
RMA{-1}                   -0.0036  -1.93  Leads +4          14.20  4  0.0067
D691                      -0.1178  -3.88  Leads +8           1.97  2  0.3734
D692                       0.1440   4.70  p4e               35.69  1  0.0000
D714                      -0.0913  -3.01  p8e               25.22  1  0.0000
D721                       0.1066   3.50  logPF             29.04  1  0.0000
                                          log[(X-FA)/POP]    2.05  1  0.1521
                                          Other a           24.15  4  0.0001
                                          Spread            38.23  4  0.0000
SE    0.03001
R2      0.997
DW       1.69

Estimation period is 1954.1-1996.3
alog(AA/POP)-1, log(WA/PH), Z, log[YNL/(POP*PH)]
Table 5.28: Equation 28
			   Table 5.28
                           Equation 28
                       LHS Variable is  logUB

		Equation                          Chi Square Tests

RHS Variable                Est.  t-stat.  Test             ChiSq  df  p-val

cnst                       0.2182   0.56  Lags              10.49  3  0.0148
logUB{-1}                  0.2642   3.89  RHO=4              5.75  3  0.1244
logU                       1.1779  10.02  T                  2.32  1  0.1281
logWF                      0.3419   5.11
RHO1                       0.7982  14.10
 
SE    0.06520
R2      0.996
DW       2.16
Stability Test:                                                             
    AP      T1    T2      lambda    Break

11.01  1970.1  1979.4    2.53  1975.1

Estimation period is 1954.1-1996.3
Table 5.30: Equation 30
			   Table 5.30
                           Equation 30
                       LHS Variable is  RS

		Equation                          Chi Square Tests

RHS Variable                Est.  t-stat.  Test             ChiSq  df  p-val

cnst                     -15.6737  -6.33  Lags               8.82  6  0.1837
RS{-1}                     0.8833  48.52  RHO=4              3.99  4  0.4070
100*[(PD/PD{-1})^4-1]      0.0765   3.93  T                  0.74  1  0.3908
JJS                       15.9718   6.41  Leads +1           2.13  3  0.5452
PCGDPR                     0.0683   4.57  Leads +4           8.34 12  0.7583
PCM1{-1}                   0.0195   3.13  Leads +8           2.00  6  0.9195
D794823*PCM1{-1}           0.2251   9.50  p4e                0.31  1  0.5772
Ch RS{-1}                  0.2051   3.48  p8e                0.57  1  0.4496
Ch RS{-2}                 -0.2999  -5.51
 
SE    0.50002
R2      0.970
DW       1.95

Estimation period is 1954.1-1996.3