| 8. Estimating and Testing the US Model |
| 8.1 Introduction 8.2 US+ Model 8.3 MU Estimates of the US Model 8.4 Asymptotic Distribution Accuracy 8.5 A Comparison of the Estimates 8.6 Predictive Accuracy 8.7 Comparing Information in Forecasts 8.8 Estimating Event Probabilities 8.9 Summary of the Test Results |