Contrary to both the October 10, 1998,
Blue Chip forecast and the November 3, 1998, US model
forecast, the fourth quarter of 1998 came in as a good news quarter, with
a per capita growth rate around 4.7 percent. Using this information and
the January 30, 1999, US model forecast, the predicted values of
p15, n, and g3 are now 1.4 percent, 4, and 1.1
percent, respectively.
Using these values and the estimated vote equation,
the predicted value for V is .457, up from .447 using the previous
values. The Democrats are thus edging closer to .5, but there is still a
predicted advantage for the Republicans.
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