Presidential Vote Equation--January 30, 1999
Contrary to both the October 10, 1998, Blue Chip forecast and the November 3, 1998, US model forecast, the fourth quarter of 1998 came in as a good news quarter, with a per capita growth rate around 4.7 percent. Using this information and the January 30, 1999, US model forecast, the predicted values of p15, n, and g3 are now 1.4 percent, 4, and 1.1 percent, respectively. Using these values and the estimated vote equation, the predicted value for V is .457, up from .447 using the previous values. The Democrats are thus edging closer to .5, but there is still a predicted advantage for the Republicans.