Presidential Vote Equation--May 1, 1999
The first quarter of 1999 turned out to be a good news quarter, making a total of 5 since the first quarter of 1997. Given the actual data through the first quarter of 1999 and the May 1, 1999, US model forecast, the predicted values of p15, n, and g3 are now 1.5 percent, 6, and 1.7 percent, respectively. (The second quarter of 1999 is forecast to be a good news quarter, but none of the remaining are.) Using these values and the estimated vote equation, the predicted value for V is .479. The election is thus predicted to be close, with a slight edge for the Republicans. If, on the other hand, the economy grows faster between now and the election than the US model is predicting, the predicted vote could swing in favor of the Democrats. (The US model has been underpredicting real growth for the last three years--- see The Forecasting Record of the US Model.)