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The first quarter of 1999 turned out to be a good news quarter,
making a total of 5 since the first quarter of 1997.
Given the actual data through the first quarter of 1999 and the
May 1, 1999, US model forecast, the predicted values of
p15, n, and g3 are now 1.5 percent, 6, and 1.7
percent, respectively. (The second quarter of 1999 is forecast to be
a good news quarter, but none of the remaining are.)
Using these values and the estimated vote equation,
the predicted value for V is .479.
The election is thus predicted to be close, with a slight edge for the
Republicans. If, on the other hand, the economy grows faster
between now and the election than the US model is predicting, the
predicted vote could swing in favor of the Democrats.
(The US model has been underpredicting real growth for the last
three years--- see The Forecasting
Record of the US Model.)
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