Presidential Vote Equation--April 25, 2003

The predictions of GROWTH, INFLATION, and GOODNEWS for the previous two forecasts from the US model (October 31, 2002 and January 30, 2003) were the same: 2.0 percent, 1.9 percent, and 1, respectively. These predictions are also the same for the current forecast (April 25, 2003). There is thus nothing new regarding the economic predictions, and so the vote prediction is the same as it has been since October 31, 2002, namely 56.3 percent of the two-party vote for President Bush.