Presidential Vote Equation--July 31, 2004
The predictions of GROWTH, INFLATION, and GOODNEWS for the previous forecast from the US model (April 29, 2004) were 3.2 percent, 2.0 percent, and 3, respectively. The current predictions from the US model (July 31, 2004) are 2.7 percent, 2.1 percent, and 2, respectively. The current predictions are based on the NIPA data that were revised back to beginning of 2001. Given the revised data, there are only 2 good news quarters in the first 14 of the Bush administration: 2003:3 and 2004:1. The US model is not predicting that the current quarter (2004:3) will be a good news quarter, and so the total number of good news quarters is 2.

So the revised data and the economic predictions for 2004:3 from the US model show a slightly lower value for GROWTH, essentially the same value for INFLATION, and the value of GOODNEWS lowered from 3 to 2. These new economic values give a prediction of 57.48 percent of the two-party vote for President Bush rather than 58.74 percent before. This is, of course, still a large predicted share for President Bush, although 1.26 percentage points less than before.