The predictions of GROWTH, INFLATION, and
GOODNEWS for the
previous forecast from the US model (July 31, 2003) were
2.4 percent, 1.8 percent, and 1, respectively.
The current predictions from the US model (October 31, 2003) are
2.4 percent, 1.9 percent, and 3.
The only significant change concerns the GOODNEWS
prediction. The previous quarter (2003:3) turned out to be a
good news quarter, and the US model is predicting that the
current quarter (2003:4) will also be a good news quarter.
Neither of these quarters before was predicted to be a good news
quarter. Each good news quarter adds 0.837 percentage points to the
incumbent vote share, so two extra good news quarters adds
1.674 percentage points for President Bush. The new economic values
give a prediction of 58.3 percent of the two-party vote for
President Bush rather than 56.7 percent before.
This does not, however, change the main story that the equation has
been making from the beginning, namely that President Bush is predicted
to win by a sizable margin. The margin is just now even larger than before.