| Presidential Vote Equation--October 29, 2004 |
|
The predictions of GROWTH, INFLATION, and
GOODNEWS for the
previous forecast from the US model (July 31, 2004) were
2.7 percent, 2.1 percent, and 2, respectively.
With the release of the NIPA data on October 29, 2004,
all the actual economic data are available for the vote
prediction. The actual values (as of October 29, 2004)
of GROWTH, INFLATION, and GOODNEWS
are 2.9 percent, 2.0 percent, and 2, respectively.
Given that the actual economic values are close to the values used for the previous vote prediction, the current vote prediction is little changed. The new economic values give a prediction of 57.70 percent of the two-party vote for President Bush rather than 57.48 percent before. |