The Presidential Vote Equation: 2000 Update
The update of the presidential vote equation through the 2000 election is described in Fair (2002). The date of this update is November 1, 2002. This equation is used in the paper to predict the 2004 election. No specification changes were made for this update from the previous update, which itself was unchanged from the update before that. The equation was simply reestimated using updated data.

If you would like to use the equation to make your own prediction of the 2004 election, see Compute your own vote prediction.

For a non technical discussion of the vote equation, see Fair (2002) Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things.

January 30, 2003, prediction
April 25, 2003, prediction
July 31, 2003, prediction
October 31, 2003, prediction