| The Presidential Vote Equation: 2000 Update |
| The update of the presidential vote equation through the 2000 election
is described in Fair (2002).
The date of this update is November 1, 2002.
This equation is used in the paper to predict the 2004 election.
No specification changes were made for this update from the previous
update, which itself was unchanged from the update before that.
The equation was simply reestimated using updated data.
If you would like to use the equation to make your own prediction of the 2004 election, see Compute your own vote prediction. For a non technical discussion of the vote equation, see
Fair (2002) Predicting Presidential
Elections and Other Things.
January 30, 2003, prediction |