Presidential Vote Equation--January 31, 2007
The predictions of GROWTH, INFLATION, and GOODNEWS for the previous forecast from the US model (October 27, 2006) were 1.8 percent, 3.6 percent, and 1, respectively, and the predictions for the current forecast (January 31, 2007) are 1.7 percent, 3.4 percent, and 1, respectively. The economic forecasts have thus changed very little, and so the vote prediction has changed very little. It is now 46.6 for the Republicans versus 46.5 before. The Republicans are thus predicted to lose the election by 3.4 percentage points given these economic forecasts. It is the case, however, that these economic forecasts from the US model are more pessimistic that the current consensus view of the future course of the U.S. economy, especially regarding inflation. It is possible on this website to enter your own values for the three economic variables and produce a prediction for VOTE. (Compute your own prediction for 2008 using the 2004 update.) If, for example, you use 2.5 for GROWTH, 2.5 for INFLATION, and 3 for GOODNEWS, you get a predicted value for VOTE of 49.9 percent, a dead heat.