Presidential Vote Equation--April 27, 2007
The predictions of GROWTH, INFLATION, and GOODNEWS for the previous forecast from the US model (January 31, 2007) were 1.7 percent, 3.4 percent, and 1, respectively, and the predictions for the current forecast (April 27, 2007) are 1.9 percent, 3.3 percent, and 1, respectively. The economic forecasts have thus changed very little, and so the vote prediction has changed very little. It is now 46.8 for the Republicans versus 46.6 before. The Republicans are thus predicted to lose the election by 3.2 percentage points given these economic forecasts. It is the case, however, that these economic forecasts from the US model are more pessimistic that the current consensus view of the future course of the U.S. economy, especially regarding inflation. It is possible on this website to enter your own values for the three economic variables and produce a prediction for VOTE. (Compute your own prediction for 2008 using the 2004 update.) If, for example, you use 2.5 for GROWTH, 2.5 for INFLATION, and 3 for GOODNEWS, you get a predicted value for VOTE of 49.9 percent, a dead heat. On the other hand, if you think there will be a recession in 2008, with, say, GROWTH equal to -2.0, then for INFLATION equal to 3.3 and GOODNEWS equal to 1, you get a prediction for VOTE of only 44.2 percent.