The predictions of GROWTH, INFLATION, and
GOODNEWS for the previous forecast from the US model
(January 31, 2007) were 1.7 percent, 3.4 percent, and 1, respectively,
and the predictions for the current forecast (April 27, 2007) are
1.9 percent, 3.3 percent, and 1, respectively. The economic
forecasts have thus changed very little, and so the vote prediction has
changed very little. It is now 46.8 for the Republicans versus 46.6
before. The Republicans are thus
predicted to lose the election by 3.2 percentage points given these
economic forecasts. It is the case, however, that these economic forecasts
from the US model are more pessimistic that the current consensus view
of the future course of the U.S. economy, especially regarding inflation.
It is possible on this website to enter your own values for the three
economic variables and produce a prediction for VOTE.
(Compute your own prediction
for 2008 using the
2004 update.) If, for example, you use 2.5 for GROWTH,
2.5 for INFLATION, and 3 for GOODNEWS, you get a
predicted value for VOTE of 49.9 percent, a dead heat.
On the other hand, if you think there will be a recession in 2008, with,
say, GROWTH equal to -2.0, then for INFLATION equal to
3.3 and GOODNEWS equal to 1, you get a prediction for
VOTE of only 44.2 percent.