Presidential Vote Equation--July 31, 2003
The predictions of GROWTH, INFLATION, and GOODNEWS for the previous three forecasts from the US model (October 31, 2002, January 30, 2003, and April 25, 2003) were the same: 2.0 percent, 1.9 percent, and 1, respectively. For the current forecast (July 31, 2003) the GOODNEWS prediction is the same, namely 1, but GROWTH is now 2.4 rather than 2.0 and INFLATION is now 1.8 rather than 1.7. These new values give a prediction of 56.7 percent of the two-party vote for President Bush rather than 56.3 percent before. This is a small change, and the main story has not changed.