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The predictions of GROWTH, INFLATION, and
GOODNEWS for the current forecast from the US model
(October 31, 2007) are 2.2 percent, 3.3 percent, and 2, respectively.
These are the same as those from the previous forecast (July 27, 2007)
except that the previous prediction of INFLATION was 3.5 percent
rather than the current 3.3 percent. This change has a very small change
on the predicted vote share.
The predicted
Republican vote share is now 48.1 percent rather than 48.0 percent before.
The Republicans are thus
predicted to lose the election by 1.9 percentage points given the
current forecasts from the US model.
The forecasts of inflation from the US model are probably more
pessimistic than the current consensus view, and the forecasts of
real growth are probably more optimistic.
It is possible on this website to enter your own values for the three
economic variables and produce a prediction for VOTE.
(Compute your own prediction
for 2008 using the
2004 update.) For example, if you think a recession is likely in 2008,
you can enter some negative value for GROWTH.
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