Presidential Vote Equation--October 31, 2007
The predictions of GROWTH, INFLATION, and GOODNEWS for the current forecast from the US model (October 31, 2007) are 2.2 percent, 3.3 percent, and 2, respectively. These are the same as those from the previous forecast (July 27, 2007) except that the previous prediction of INFLATION was 3.5 percent rather than the current 3.3 percent. This change has a very small change on the predicted vote share. The predicted Republican vote share is now 48.1 percent rather than 48.0 percent before. The Republicans are thus predicted to lose the election by 1.9 percentage points given the current forecasts from the US model. The forecasts of inflation from the US model are probably more pessimistic than the current consensus view, and the forecasts of real growth are probably more optimistic. It is possible on this website to enter your own values for the three economic variables and produce a prediction for VOTE. (Compute your own prediction for 2008 using the 2004 update.) For example, if you think a recession is likely in 2008, you can enter some negative value for GROWTH.