Data collected from PredictIt on October 30, 2018, 11:00am EST

According to Real Clear Politics there are 40 Democratic seats that are safe or not in play and 47 Republican seats that are safe or not in play. This leaves 13 states in play. The following are the 13 states ranked by the PredictIt probability that the Democrats win the state.

 # D seats state prob 41 WI 92 42 MN2 84 43 WV 81 44 NJ 77 45 MT 68 46 FL 57 47 NV 50 48 AZ 48 49 IN 45 50 MO 37 51 TN 21 pivot for 51 Democratic seats 53 TX 20 53 ND 15
 14 = PredictIt market-based probability of the Democrats controlling the Senate. If the Democrats win Tennessee and all the states above it, they will have 51 seats, counting the 2 independents as Democrats, and thus control the Senate. According to the ranking assumption, the PredictIt market probablility that they control the Senate is thus 21 percent (the probablity they win Tennessee). This is close to the PredictIt market-based probability of the Democrats controlling the Senate of 14 percent. The market price is thus rougly consistent with the ranking assumption, although a little lower. Data collected from PredictIt on October 16, 2018, 3:00pm EST According to Real Clear Politics there are 40 Democratic seats that are safe or not in play and 47 Republican seats that are safe or not in play. This leaves 13 states in play. The following are the 13 states ranked by the PredictIt probability that the Democrats win the state.
 # D seats state prob 41 WI 89 42 MN2 87 43 WV 77 44 NJ 75 45 MT 65 46 IN 54 47 FL 50 48 AZ 47 49 NV 40 50 MO 37 51 ND 19 pivot for 51 Democratic seats 52 TN 18 53 TX 17
 17 = PredictIt market-based probability of the Democrats controlling the Senate. If the Democrats win North Dakota and all the states above it, they will have 51 seats, counting the 2 independents as Democrats, and thus control the Senate. According to the ranking assumption, the PredictIt market probablility that they control the Senate is thus 19 percent (the probablity they win North Dakota). This is essentially the same as the PredictIt market-based probability of the Democrats controlling the Senate of 17 percent. The market price is thus consistent with the ranking assumption. Data collected from PredictIt on September 13, 2018, 2:30pm EST According to Real Clear Politics there are 40 Democratic seats that are safe or not in play and 47 Republican seats that are safe or not in play. This leaves 13 states in play. The following are the 13 states ranked by the PredictIt probability that the Democrats win the state.
 # D seats state prob 41 MN2 85 42 WI 85 43 NJ 76 44 WV 74 45 MT 67 46 NV 62 47 IN 50 48 AZ 50 49 MO 47 50 TN 45 51 FL 44 pivot for 51 Democratic seats 52 TX 39 53 ND 38
 29 = PredictIt market-based probability of the Democrats controlling the Senate. If the Democrats win Florida and all the states above it, they will have 51 seats, counting the 2 independents as Democrats, and thus control the Senate. According to the ranking assumption, the PredictIt market probablility that they control the Senate is thus 44 percent (the probablity they win Florida). This is higher than the PredictIt market-based probability of the Democrats controlling the Senate of 29 percent. The market is not quite using the ranking assumption in determining this probability. It probably is reflecting the view that even if the Democrats take Florida they could possbily lose some states above it.