According to Real Clear Politics there are 40 Democratic seats that are safe or not in play and 47 Republican seats that are safe or not in play. This leaves 13 states in play. The following are the 13 states ranked by the PredictIt probability that the Democrats win the state.

# D seats	state	prob
41	WI	92
42	MN2	84
43	WV	81
44	NJ	77
45	MT	68
46	FL	57
47	NV	50
48	AZ	48
49	IN	45
50	MO	37
51	TN	21	pivot for 51 Democratic seats
53	TX	20
53	ND	15

14 = PredictIt market-based probability of the Democrats controlling the Senate. If the Democrats win Tennessee and all the states above it, they will have 51 seats, counting the 2 independents as Democrats, and thus control the Senate. According to the ranking assumption, the PredictIt market probablility that they control the Senate is thus 21 percent (the probablity they win Tennessee). This is close to the PredictIt market-based probability of the Democrats controlling the Senate of 14 percent. The market price is thus rougly consistent with the ranking assumption, although a little lower. Data collected from PredictIt on October 16, 2018, 3:00pm EST According to Real Clear Politics there are 40 Democratic seats that are safe or not in play and 47 Republican seats that are safe or not in play. This leaves 13 states in play. The following are the 13 states ranked by the PredictIt probability that the Democrats win the state.

# D seats	state	prob
41	WI	89
42	MN2	87
43	WV	77
44	NJ	75
45	MT	65
46	IN	54
47	FL	50
48	AZ	47
49	NV	40
50	MO	37
51	ND	19	pivot for 51 Democratic seats
52	TN	18
53	TX	17

17 = PredictIt market-based probability of the Democrats controlling the Senate. If the Democrats win North Dakota and all the states above it, they will have 51 seats, counting the 2 independents as Democrats, and thus control the Senate. According to the ranking assumption, the PredictIt market probablility that they control the Senate is thus 19 percent (the probablity they win North Dakota). This is essentially the same as the PredictIt market-based probability of the Democrats controlling the Senate of 17 percent. The market price is thus consistent with the ranking assumption. Data collected from PredictIt on September 13, 2018, 2:30pm EST According to Real Clear Politics there are 40 Democratic seats that are safe or not in play and 47 Republican seats that are safe or not in play. This leaves 13 states in play. The following are the 13 states ranked by the PredictIt probability that the Democrats win the state.

# D seats	state	prob
41	MN2	85
42	WI	85
43	NJ	76
44	WV	74
45	MT	67
46	NV	62
47	IN	50
48	AZ	50
49	MO	47
50	TN	45
51	FL	44	pivot for 51 Democratic seats
52	TX	39
53	ND	38

29 = PredictIt market-based probability of the Democrats controlling the Senate. If the Democrats win Florida and all the states above it, they will have 51 seats, counting the 2 independents as Democrats, and thus control the Senate. According to the ranking assumption, the PredictIt market probablility that they control the Senate is thus 44 percent (the probablity they win Florida). This is higher than the PredictIt market-based probability of the Democrats controlling the Senate of 29 percent. The market is not quite using the ranking assumption in determining this probability. It probably is reflecting the view that even if the Democrats take Florida they could possbily lose some states above it.