President and House 2024

Background:

The paper,
Presidential and Congressional Vote-Share Equations: November 2022 Update,
discusses the November 2022 update of the vote-share equations. Forecasts for 2024 are also made. This discussion assumes that the paper,
Presidential and Congressional Vote-Share Equations, American Journal of Political Science, January 2009, 55-72,
has been read.

Compute your own prediction:

The following link allows you to compute your own predictions of the 2024 presidential and House elections.
Compute your own predictions for 2024

Predictions:

The predictions of VP and VC for the 2024 election using the economic forecasts from the US model are:
                             G     P      Z      VP     VC 
November 23, 2022           1.70  4.83    3     50.35  49.19
VP is the Democratic share of the two-party presidential vote, and VC is the Democratic share of the two-party House vote. Click the above "Compute your own predictions for 2024" for the definitions of G, P, and Z.

November 23, 2022, comment:

The values of the non economic variables for 2024 are I = 1 (the Democrats are in power), DPER = 1 (assuming Biden runs), DUR = 0.00 (the Democrats have not been in power for two or more consecutive terms), WAR = 0, and VCC = 48.4. This latter variable is needed for the 2024 on-term House vote. Using these values, the equations for VP and VC can be written for 2024 as:
VP = 49.48 + 0.708*G - 0.606*P + 0.865*Z
VC = 48.74 + 0.371*G - 0.318*P + 0.453*Z
The constant terms incorporate the non economic values just mentioned. Remember that these assume that Biden is running again. The terms will not change unless Biden does not run again.

Given forecasts of the three economic variables, predictions of the vote shares can be made. Using actual values through 2022.3 and forecast values from the US model on this site for 2022.4--2024.3, the values for G, P, and Z are 1.70, 4.83, and 3, respectively. These give a predicted value of 50.35 for VP and 49.19 for VC. In short, roughly a 50/50 prediction for both the presidency and the House.

To give an idea of the sensitivity of the presidential predictions, if Biden does not run this subtracts 2.13 percent from the Democratic vote share. For every one percentage point change in G, the growth rate of real per capita GDP in the first three quarters of 2024 at an annual rate, the Democratic vote share changes by about 0.7 percentage points. For every one percentage point change in P, the growth rate of the GDP deflator between 2021.1 and 2024.3 at an annual rate, the Democratic vote share changes by about 0.6 percentage points in the opposite direction. For a change in Z of 1, the Democratic vote share changes by about 0.9 percentage points. You can use the site to make your own prediction of the vote share for different values of the economic variables.