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66 = Predictit market-based probability that the Democrats
win the presidential election.
"sumvotes" is the sum of the electoral
votes of all the states ranked above the state
plus the state's vote. 270 votes are needed to win.
You can see that Pennsylvania is the pivot state.
If Biden takes Pennsylvania and all the
states ranked above it, he gets 279 votes. Of the states ranked below
Pennsylvania, he
could also win by not taking Pennsylvania, but taking Arizona, Florida, or
North Carolina, where he is favored.
This would, of course, violate the ranking assumption.
According to the ranking assumption, the probability that the Democrats
get a majority in the electoral college is the
probability that they win the pivot state, Pennsylvania,
which is 71.
On the Predictit website, the market-based probability that
the Democrats win the
presidential election (in the electoral college) is 66, slightly below
71. So the market participants are not quite using the ranking
assumption.
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Ranking Assumption for 2020 Senate elections
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Data collected from Predictit on September 8, 2020
The current make up of the Senate is 53 Republicans and 47 Democrats, counting
the 2 independents as Democrats.
Only 14 states are in play in having market probabilities on the Predictit
website less than 90 percent
and greater than 10 percent. The 14 states ranked by the market probabilities
from Predictit for the Democratic candidate are:
|
| state
| prob
| now
|
| Colorado | 88 | R |
| Arizona | 87 | R |
| Minnesota | 84 | D |
| Michigan | 77 | D |
| Maine | 72 | R | pivot for 50 Democratic seats |
| North Carolina | 67 | R | pivot for 51 Democratic seats |
| Iowa | 45 | R |
| Montana | 41 | R |
| Georgia, reg. | 30 | R |
| Arkansas | 26 | R |
| South Carolina | 23 | R |
| Georgia, spec. | 20 | R |
| Texas | 13 | R |
| Alabama | 11 | R |
|
56 = Predictit market-based probability of the Democrats controlling the
Senate.
If the Democrats win North Carolina and all the states above it, they will have
51 seats, counting the 2 independents as Democrats. If they win
Maine and all the states above it but lose North Carolina, they will have 50
seats. They will still control the Senate if they win the White House.
According to the ranking assumption, the Predictit market
probablility that they control the Senate is thus 72 percent (the
probablity they win Maine) if they win the White House and 67 percent
(the probablility they win North Carolina) if they don't.
If we use the Predictit market-based probabilty of 60 percent that the
Democrats win
the presidential electon, then the ranking assumption
probability that the Democrats
control the Senate is 0.60x72 + 0.40x67, which is 70 percent.
This is noticeably higher than the Predictit market-based probability
of the Democrats controlling the Senate of 56 percent. In this case, unlike
in the Presidential case, it does not look like the market is using the
ranking assumption.
Data collected from Predictit on September 22, 2020
The current make up of the Senate is 53 Republicans and 47 Democrats, counting
the 2 independents as Democrats.
Only 16 states are in play in having market probabilities on the Predictit
website less than 90 percent
and greater than 10 percent. The 16 states ranked by the market probabilities
from Predictit for the Democratic candidate are:
|
| state
| prob
| now
|
| Minnesota | 87 | D |
| Colorado | 84 | R |
| Arizona | 83 | R |
| Michigan | 73 | D |
| Maine | 73 | R | pivot for 50 Democratic seats |
| North Carolina | 65 | R | pivot for 51 Democratic seats |
| Iowa | 49 | R |
| Montana | 42 | R |
| Georgia, reg. | 35 | R |
| South Carolina | 30 | R |
| Georgia, spec. | 27 | R |
| Arkansas | 26 | R |
| Kansas | 22 | R |
| Texas | 16 | R |
| Alabama | 12 | R |
| Kentucky | 11 | R |
|
57 = Predictit market-based probability of the Democrats controlling the
Senate.
If the Democrats win North Carolina and all the states above it, they will have
51 seats, counting the 2 independents as Democrats. If they win
Maine and all the states above it but lose North Carolina, they will have 50
seats. They will still control the Senate if they win the White House.
According to the ranking assumption, the Predictit market
probablility that they control the Senate is thus 73 percent (the
probablity they win Maine) if they win the White House and 65 percent
(the probablility they win North Carolina) if they don't.
If we use the Predictit market-based probabilty of 59 percent that the
Democrats win
the presidential electon, then the ranking assumption
probability that the Democrats
control the Senate is 0.59x73 + 0.41x65, which is 70 percent.
This is noticeably higher than the Predictit market-based probability
of the Democrats controlling the Senate of 57 percent. In this case, unlike
in the Presidential case, it does not look like the market is using the
ranking assumption.
Data collected from Predictit on October 6, 2020
The current make up of the Senate is 53 Republicans and 47 Democrats, counting
the 2 independents as Democrats.
Only 16 states are in play in having market probabilities on the Predictit
website less than 90 percent
and greater than 10 percent. The 16 states ranked by the market probabilities
from Predictit for the Democratic candidate are:
|
| state
| prob
| now
|
| Colorado | 87 | R |
| Arizona | 83 | R |
| Maine | 77 | R | pivot for 50 Democratic seats |
| Michigan | 71 | D |
| North Carolina | 58 | R | pivot for 51 Democratic seats |
| Iowa | 54 | R |
| Montana | 42 | R |
| Georgia, reg. | 38 | R |
| Georgia, spec. | 34 | R |
| Arkansas | 34 | R |
| South Carolina | 32 | R |
| Kansas | 31 | R |
| Mississippi | 19 | R |
| Texas | 18 | R |
| Alabama | 13 | R |
| Kentucky | 11 | R |
|
66 = Predictit market-based probability of the Democrats controlling the
Senate.
If the Democrats win North Carolina and all the states above it, they will have
51 seats, counting the 2 independents as Democrats. If they win
Maine and all the states above it but lose North Carolina, they will have 50
seats. They will still control the Senate if they win the White House.
According to the ranking assumption, the Predictit market
probablility that they control the Senate is thus 77 percent (the
probablity they win Maine) if they win the White House and 58 percent
(the probablility they win North Carolina) if they don't.
If we use the Predictit market-based probabilty of 66 percent that the
Democrats win
the presidential electon, then the ranking assumption
probability that the Democrats
control the Senate is 0.66x77 + 0.34x58, which is 70.5 percent.
This is somewhat higher
than the Predictit market-based probability
of the Democrats controlling the Senate of 66 percent. So the market is not
quite using the ranking asssumption.
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