US Model Update: April 26, 2013: The US model has been updated through 2013:1---see US Forecast Memo and Selected Variables---html, Selected Variables---pdf.. The forecast goes through 2022.
WARNING: The software for the US model changed beginning with the October 30, 2011, version. All flow variables are now at quarterly rates rather than at annual rates as before. The software is a subset of that used for the multicountry models. Ignore any country except the United States when setting up your job. Only the US model by itself is being solved. The base dataset is YADBASE with a password of USBASE. This is a change from earlier versions where the base dataset was BASE with a password of BASE. There is also a trick needed if you want to use a prediction period other than the default forecast period and you want the new prediction period to begin other than in the first quarter of the year. See About US Model User Datasets for more details.
MC Model Update: April 27, 2012: The multicountry model has been updated through data available as of April 27, 2012. It incorporates the US model updated through April 27, 2012. This version is called the MCH model. The forecast memo is MCH Forecast Memo.
This part of the site brings the power of large scale macroeconometric analysis to anyone with access to the internet. It is a resource for business forecasters, government policy analysts, macroeconomic researchers, teachers, and students. You can:
  • Work with a U.S. macroeconometric model or a multicountry econometric model to forecast, do policy analysis, and examine historical episodes. For example, you can change government policy variables and examine the estimated effects of the changes.
  • Table and graph online and/or download all or part of the historical data, forecast data, and data you may have created.
  • Read online and/or download all the documentation, memos, and papers.
  • Download for use on your own computer the Fair-Parke (FP) program and the models.
  • Download for use on your own computer the US model in Eviews.

Latest Versions of the US and MC Models

Previous Versions of the MC Model

Previous MC Versions

Getting Started

The reading for the US model should be:

The additional reading for the MCH model should be:

When you are ready to use the US model, click "Solve current version or previous version" after US Model below, and when you are ready to use the MCH model, click "Solve" after MCH model below.

The US Model
(Solve the current version (April 26, 2013) of the model)
(Solve the version dated January 30, 2013)
(Solve the version dated October 26, 2012)
(Solve the version dated July 27, 2012)
(Solve the version dated April 27, 2012)
(Solve the version dated January 28, 2012)
(Solve the version dated October 30, 2011)
(Solve the version dated July 31, 2011)
(Solve the version dated April 28, 2011)
(Solve the version dated January 29, 2011)
(Solve the version dated October 29, 2010)
(Solve the version dated July 30, 2010)
(Solve the version dated April 30, 2010)
(Solve the version dated January 30, 2010)
(Solve the version dated October 31, 2009)
(Solve versions dated October 31, 2005, through August 24. 2009)
(Solve versions dated July 30, 2005, and back)
Appendix A
Appendix A Archive
Changes to the US Model Since 2004
Forecast Memo and Selected Variables
Forecast Memo Archive
Forecast Record
Forecast Record Archive
Download for own PC use---Fair-Parke program
Download the US Model in EViews

The MCH Model (Solve)
The MCH Model Workbook: April 27, 2012
Appendix A: The US Model: April 27, 2012
Appendix B: The ROW Part of the MCH Model: April 27, 2012
MCH Forecast Memo
Download for own PC use---Fair-Parke

The Fair-Parke Program

Articles About the Site