Amby has the following comments about his Manchester runs:
"Manchester was my first road race, in the fall of my senior year in high school. Four years later, I won it for the first time in the same year as my Boston Marathon victory. Since then I have run Manchester while training 120 miles a week; on an emergency home visit while serving in the Peace Corps in El Salvador; with `walking pneumonia;' with severe achilles tendinitis; while carrying an umbrella to keep the rain off my wife; while focusing for three decades on my professional career at Runner's World magazine; while getting more serious about training/racing again in my 60s; and after meniscus knee surgery at age 64. I hope to run a few more, some no doubt slower than others. And then much slower. At this point, finish time seems less important than simply keeping the streak alive."
Predicted Minimum Age Year Time Time Difference 17 1963 25:59 18 1964 24:50 19 1965 24:55 20 1966 23:27 21 1967 23:19 22 1968 22:34.4 23 1969 22:38.4 24 1970 23:24 25 1971 23:45 26 1972 22:21.9 27 1973 22:37 28 1974 22:32.4 29 1975 22:34.5 30 1976 22:34 21:45 0:49 31 1977 22:41 21:57 0:44 32 1978 22:44 22:09 0:35 33 1979 23:21 22:21 1:00 34 1980 23:27 22:33 0:54 35 1981 35:00 22:45 12:15 36 1982 22:57 22:57 0:00 37 1983 25:03 23:09 1:54 38 1984 25:04 23:22 1:42 39 1985 25:08 23:35 1:33 40 1986 26:03 23:47 2:16 41 1987 39:02 24:00 15:02 42 1988 29:09 24:13 4:56 43 1989 43:22 24:26 18:56 44 1990 39:35 24:39 14:56 45 1991 38:51 24:53 13:58 46 1992 30:43 25:06 5:37 47 1993 30:11 25:20 4:51 48 1994 29:10 25:33 3:37 49 1995 29:23 25:47 3:36 50 1996 29:37 26:01 3:36 51 1997 30:17 26:15 4:02 52 1998 40:26 26:29 13:57 53 1999 34:48 26:44 8:04 54 2000 36:24 26:58 9:26 55 2001 31:32 27:13 4:19 56 2002 32:31 27:27 5:04 57 2003 32:15 27:42 4:33 58 2004 31:00 27:57 3:03 59 2005 32:19 28:12 4:07 60 2006 30:47 28:28 2:19 61 2007 30:41 28:43 1:58 62 2008 30:50 28:58 1:52 63 2009 30:30 29:14 1:16 64 2010 34:38 29:30 5:08 65 2011 51:32 29:46 21:46 66 2012 57:51 30:02 27:49 67 2013 48:09 30:18 17:51 68 2014 37:45 30:34 7:11 69 2015 35:55 30:51 5:04 70 2016 37:12 31:08 6:04 71 2017 39:43 31:25 8:18 72 2018 40:34 31:41 8:53 73 2019 56:49 31:59 24:50 74 2020 45:13 32:16 12:57 75 2021 41:09 32:33 8:36 76 2022 40:14 32:52 7:22 77 2023 41:42 33:20 8:22
The predicted minimum times were computed using the link on the page Compute Aging Effects for "Running, 10K, men." The age factors are based on the results in Fair (2024), "Physical Decline Rates: Men versus Women".
These calculations are based on Amby's time of 22:57 at age 36. This is not his best time, which is 22:21.9 at age 26.
Amby's 12 best age corrected times (all less than two minutes off the line) are ages 30-34, 36-39, and 61-63. (Some of the actual times are way off the line, but these are undoubtedly races in which he did not run seriously.) These ages, 30 through 63, span 34 years, and so Amby had times close to his line for 34 years from age 30 on!