Amby Burfoot: Manchester Road Race Times

Amby Burfoot has run the Manchester Road Race, 4.748 miles, 61 times in a row! The table below shows his actual times and his predicted minimum times.

Amby has the following comments about his Manchester runs:

"Manchester was my first road race, in the fall of my senior year in high school. Four years later, I won it for the first time in the same year as my Boston Marathon victory. Since then I have run Manchester while training 120 miles a week; on an emergency home visit while serving in the Peace Corps in El Salvador; with `walking pneumonia;' with severe achilles tendinitis; while carrying an umbrella to keep the rain off my wife; while focusing for three decades on my professional career at Runner's World magazine; while getting more serious about training/racing again in my 60s; and after meniscus knee surgery at age 64. I hope to run a few more, some no doubt slower than others. And then much slower. At this point, finish time seems less important than simply keeping the streak alive."

                   Predicted
                    Minimum
Age  Year    Time     Time  Difference

17   1963   25:59   
18   1964   24:50   
19   1965   24:55   
20   1966   23:27   
21   1967   23:19   
22   1968   22:34.4 
23   1969   22:38.4 
24   1970   23:24   
25   1971   23:45   
26   1972   22:21.9 
27   1973   22:37   
28   1974   22:32.4  
29   1975   22:34.5  
30   1976   22:34    21:45    0:49
31   1977   22:41    21:57    0:44
32   1978   22:44    22:09    0:35
33   1979   23:21    22:21    1:00
34   1980   23:27    22:33    0:54
35   1981   35:00    22:45   12:15
36   1982   22:57    22:57    0:00
37   1983   25:03    23:09    1:54
38   1984   25:04    23:22    1:42
39   1985   25:08    23:35    1:33
40   1986   26:03    23:47    2:16
41   1987   39:02    24:00   15:02
42   1988   29:09    24:13    4:56
43   1989   43:22    24:26   18:56
44   1990   39:35    24:39   14:56
45   1991   38:51    24:53   13:58
46   1992   30:43    25:06    5:37
47   1993   30:11    25:20    4:51
48   1994   29:10    25:33    3:37
49   1995   29:23    25:47    3:36
50   1996   29:37    26:01    3:36
51   1997   30:17    26:15    4:02
52   1998   40:26    26:29   13:57
53   1999   34:48    26:44    8:04
54   2000   36:24    26:58    9:26
55   2001   31:32    27:13    4:19
56   2002   32:31    27:27    5:04
57   2003   32:15    27:42    4:33
58   2004   31:00    27:57    3:03
59   2005   32:19    28:12    4:07
60   2006   30:47    28:28    2:19
61   2007   30:41    28:43    1:58
62   2008   30:50    28:58    1:52
63   2009   30:30    29:14    1:16
64   2010   34:38    29:30    5:08
65   2011   51:32    29:46   21:46
66   2012   57:51    30:02   27:49
67   2013   48:09    30:18   17:51
68   2014   37:45    30:34    7:11
69   2015   35:55    30:51    5:04
70   2016   37:12    31:08    6:04
71   2017   39:43    31:25    8:18
72   2018   40:34    31:41    8:53
73   2019   56:49    31:59   24:50
74   2020   45:13    32:16   12:57
75   2021   41:09    32:33    8:36
76   2022   40:14    32:52    7:22
77   2023   41:42    33:20    8:22

The predicted minimum times were computed using the link on the page Compute Aging Effects for "Running, 10K, men." The age factors are based on the results in Fair (2024), "Physical Decline Rates: Men versus Women".

These calculations are based on Amby's time of 22:57 at age 36. This is not his best time, which is 22:21.9 at age 26.

Amby's 12 best age corrected times (all less than two minutes off the line) are ages 30-34, 36-39, and 61-63. (Some of the actual times are way off the line, but these are undoubtedly races in which he did not run seriously.) These ages, 30 through 63, span 34 years, and so Amby had times close to his line for 34 years from age 30 on!